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Commerzbank AG — Investor Presentation 2012
Sep 27, 2012
81_ip_2012-09-27_a893739d-479b-48e3-a949-074718a6138a.pdf
Investor Presentation
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Prudent capital management in a challenging market environment
Bank of America Merrill Lynch "17th Annual Banking & Insurance CEO Conference"
Martin Blessing | CEO | London | September 27th, 2012
With strong Core Tier 1 ratio of 12.2%- well prepared for Basel 3
H1 group operating profit of €1,035m and €1,404m in Core bank*, affected by deteriorating markets, subdued client activity and low interest rate environment
Core bank segments MSB and CEE with solid operating performance, C&M and PC affected by difficult market conditions
Commercial Real Estate, Public and Ship Finance transferred to the new segment NCA
Sale of Bank Forum; negative P&L contribution of €86m in Q2 - a further €200m to be charged at closing but already reflected in capital as currency translation reserve
* both including negative valuation effect from own credit spread (OCS) of €142m
Martin Blessing | CEO | London | September 27th, 20122
Sovereign debt crisis has resulted in lower economic growth and higher uncertainty
Source: Consensus Economics Inc. 2009, BVI
Martin Blessing | CEO | London | September 27th, 2012
Regulation and sovereign debt crisis are changing the banking sector
Macroeconomic assumptions of 2009 were not fulfilled given the drastically changed market environment
Growth assumptions of 2009
- ›No burden from financial crisis
- ›Normalized yield curve
- ›Improved revenue quality
- ›Significant contribution from core segments
- ›Enhanced share of wallet within core franchise
Actual market development 2009 - 2012
- ›Weak economic growth in Eurozone
- ›Historically low interest rate environment
- › Extreme reluctance of German customers in securities transactions due to crisis of confidence
- › Tightening of financial sector regulation is leading to higher capital requirements, higher costs and lower revenues
- ›Financial burdens due to sovereign debt crisis (e.g. "Greek haircut")
Negative effect on Commerzbank'sperformance and 2012 financial targets:
Cost measures could not compensate dramatic decline in revenues
Status quo 2012 financial targets: LLP and cost targets expected to beoverachieved, but significantly lower revenues than expected
* Financial targets announced in May 2009 ** According to current analyst consensus estimates
Core Bank*: revenues under pressure
Commerzbank with excellent cost management track record
- Original cost guidance of ื €7.6bn for FY 2012 estimated to be clearly overachieved
- Targeted cost synergies of Dresdner Bank takeover of €2.4bn almost realised to full extent
- On-going disciplined cost management
- Programmes to optimise client-centric processes and to bundle the cost and revenue controlling have been implemented
Cumulated realised cost synergies of Dresdner Bank integration as of year end
1) Arithmetic sum of Commerzbank and Dresdner Bank figures as reported as of December 31st, 2007 2) Adjusted for first 12 days Dresdner Bank effect, integration charges and exit units3)Adjusted for integration charges and exit units 4) Adjusted for integration charges 5) According to current analyst consensus estimates
Core Bank segments* impacted by further deteriorating markets
Strong capital position with 12.2% Core Tier I ratio – €13bn RWA reduction during Q2 to €210bn
Conclusion and Outlook FY 2012
No stabilisation in economic environment expected in H2 2012 – operating result remains under pressure
Management focus on PC´s further strategic development and NCA run-down strategy
On the way to significantly overachieve cost guidance of €7.6bn; LLP target of ื€1.7bn for FY2012 still achievable but ambitious due to worsening market conditions
Basel 3 Common Equity Tier 1 of >10% under phase-in and 7.7% fully-loaded expected by 01/01/2013
New segment structure and organisational responsibilities
Prudent capital management in a challenging market environment
Bank of America Merrill Lynch "17th Annual Banking & Insurance CEO Conference"
Martin Blessing | CEO | London | September 27th, 2012
Disclaimer
Investor Relations
This presentation contains forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are statements that are not historical facts; they include statements about Commerzbank's beliefs and expectations and the assumptions underlying them. These statements are based on plans, estimates, projections and targets as they are currently available to the management of Commerzbank. Forward-looking statements therefore speak only as of the date they are made, and Commerzbank undertakes no obligation to update publicly any of them in light of new information or future events. By their very nature, forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties. A number of important factors could therefore cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in any forward-looking statement. Such factors include, among others, the conditions in the financial markets in Germany, in Europe, in the United States and elsewhere from which Commerzbank derives a substantial portion of its revenues and in which it hold a substantial portion of its assets, the development of assetprices and market volatility, potential defaults of borrowers or trading counterparties, the implementation of its strategic initiatives and the reliability of its risk management policies.
In addition, this presentation contains financial and other information which has been derived from publicly available information disclosed by persons other than Commerzbank ("external data"). In particular, external data has been derived from industry and customer-related data and other calculations taken or derived from industry reports published by third parties, market research reports and commercial publications. Commercial publications generally state that the information they contain has originated from sources assumed to be reliable, but that the accuracy and completeness of such information is not guaranteed and that the calculations contained therein are based on a series of assumptions. The external data has not been independently verified by Commerzbank. Therefore, Commerzbank cannot assume any responsibility for the accuracy of the external data taken or derived from public sources.
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