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Commerzbank AG — Investor Presentation 2011
Oct 5, 2011
81_ip_2011-10-05_875053ce-0a8f-41e9-8fc1-158918e4538d.pdf
Investor Presentation
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Commerzbank – Continued operating strength of the Core Bank
BoA Merrill Lynch - 16th Annual Banking & Insurance CEO Conference
Continued operating strength of the Core Bank with operating profit of €913m in Q2
Significantly improved operating profit of the Core Bank compared to last year
| G r o u |
p | C ** B k o r e a n |
||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| in € m |
Q 2 2 0 1 0 |
Q 1 2 0 1 1 |
Q 2 2 0 1 1 |
H 1 2 0 1 1 |
Q 2 2 0 1 0 |
Q 2 2 0 1 1 |
H 1 2 0 1 0 |
H 1 2 0 1 1 |
| fo Re be L L P ve nu es re |
3, 1 1 0 |
3, 6 1 6 |
2, 3 6 3 |
5, 9 7 9 |
2, 7 0 8 |
2, 8 3 1 |
5, 7 3 2 |
6, 1 0 6 |
| L L P |
-6 3 9 |
-3 1 8 |
-2 7 8 |
-5 9 6 |
-2 5 7 |
-4 8 |
-5 5 4 |
-1 2 6 |
| Op ing t er a e xp en se s |
2, 2 2 8 |
2, 1 5 4 |
2, 0 3 0 |
4, 1 8 4 |
2, 0 5 4 |
1, 8 7 0 |
4, 0 8 6 |
3, 8 4 8 |
| Op ing f i t t er a p ro |
2 4 3 |
1, 1 4 4 |
5 5 |
1, 1 9 9 |
3 9 7 |
9 1 3 |
1, 0 9 2 |
2, 1 3 2 |
| Ne f i * t p t ro |
5 3 2 |
5 9 8 |
2 4 |
1, 0 0 9 |
5 3 9 |
8 8 2 |
1, 1 7 1 |
1, 9 4 2 |
- Q2 revenues before LLP in the Core Bank increased by 5% y-o-y
- Ongoing low LLP in the Core Bank, slightly reduced provisioning need in ABF
- Overall cost base decreased by 6% q-o-q and 9% y-o-ydue to realisation of cost synergies
- Operating profit in Q2 affected by €760m impairment on Greek sovereign bonds
* Consolidated result attributable to Commerzbank shareholders ** incl. Others & Consolidations
Q2 revenues before LLP in the Core Bank increased by 5% y-o-y
Revenues before LLPin € m
* incl. Others & Consolidations
All segments of the Core Bank with significantly improved result
ABF & PRU
Portfolio reduction in Asset Based Finance
PF portfolio development (EaD in € bn)1,3
| C f i R E l t p o r o o |
d l t e v e o p m e n |
2, 3 ( i ) E D € b a n n |
|---|---|---|
| ---------------------------------------------------------- | ----------------------------------------------------- | ----------------------------------------------------------- |
| J 2 0 1 0 u n |
J 2 0 1 1 u n |
|
|---|---|---|
| R W A ( ) in € bn |
9 0 |
7 1 |
| L L P ( ) Y D, in € t m |
6 7 9 |
4 7 4 |
| C R E he f t reo – S h i F i f t he p n a n c e reo – |
4 9 5 9 1 |
4 0 1 5 7 |
| i L L P t *) ( f % Ea D r a o o |
5 0. 6 |
0. 4 8 |
| C R E he f t reo – S h i F i he f p n a n c e t reo – |
1. 2 2 0. 8 9 |
1. 0 9 0. 5 3 |
| D f l f l i t t ( in € bn ) e a p o r o o u |
9. 8 |
1 0. 7 |
| ** C i t o v e r a g e r a o ( % ) |
1 0 2 |
1 0 1 |
* including default portfolio ** including GLLP
1) incl. PF portfolios of EH and EEPK; incl. non impaired parts of Greek bonds in LaR and AfS 2) incl. EH portfolio, AM Leasing and further assets at Commerzbank 3) excl. default portfolio
Martin Blessing CEO Banking & Insurance CEO Conference 20116
Funding volume 2011 above full year plan as issuance continues
- Funding activities continue in H2
- Constant flow of private placements in July and August
- €1bn mortgage Pfandbrief Jumbo issued by Eurohypo right after summer break
* As of 31 August 2011
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Further decrease in Total Assets and RWA
Total Assets
in € bn
Decrease since end of December mainly due to m-t-m effects in derivatives and ABF run-down
RWA
in € bn
- Ongoing active management in reducing RWA
- ›RWA decrease by €9bn q-o-q to €239bn
Sound Core Tier 1 ratio at 9.9%
Tier 1 / Core Tier 1 ratio
- › SoFFin Silent Participation of €3.3bn repaid out of excess capital
- › One-off payment to SoFFin of €1.03bn booked against equity
- ›Equity Tier 1 ratio at 9.1%
Outlook
| H i h k i f l l i h i d b i i i l l i d f h t t t t t t g m a r e n c e r a n o o n g e s o e r e g n e c r s s p r o e r e r u y w v w v u h l l c a e n g e s |
|---|
| P f f A B F d d f h d l f h E d b t t t t t e r o r m a n c e o e p e n e n o n u r e r e v e o p m e n o e u r o p e a n e i i c r s s |
| M f C B k i d l l b l d b i i t t t o m e n m o o r e a n n a c a n e a a n c e s n e s s m u w u x |
| S f f l i i i d i d d t t t t r o n g o c u s o n r e a z n g c o s s y n e r g e s r e u c o n o n o n -c o r e a s s e s a n e , i i k i r s n g |
| C b k i i d d l i R d 2 0 1 2 * t t t t t o m m e r z a n s c o m m e o e v e r o n o a m a p a r g e s |
* Under stable market conditions which are currently only given to a limited extent and pre-regulatory effects
Appendix
Martin Blessing CEO Banking & Insurance CEO Conference 201111
Germany will still perform better than the Eurozone
Reasons for outperformance
- No bubbles in the housing market.
- Low level of private sector debt.
- Less need for fiscal consolidation.
- Steadily improved competitiveness since start of EMU.
- Germany benefits from strong demand for investment goods and its strong positioning in Asian markets and Emerging Markets in general.
Current development
- › German economy still in an upswing, but sentiment indicators are pointing on a significant deceleration of growth.
- › Especially external demand has lost steam.
- › "Labour market miracle": level of unemployment significantly below pre-crisis level.
- › Number of corporate defaults peaked already.
2011 – 2012 expectation
- ›Significantly lower growth ahead.
- › Biggest recession risk is a uncertainty shock caused by an escalation of the sovereign debt crisis.
- › Commerzbank main scenario: German economy will avoid recession in contrast to Eurozoneaverage.
Martin Blessing CEO Banking & Insurance CEO Conference 2011
PRU Structured Credit by Business Segment - June 2011
- Resolution of current US debt ceiling and European peripheral country concerns is key to further market recovery
- Asset specific fundamentals supporting market recovery on track but with allowance for further volatility along the way
- Expected future investor demand for PRU assets as investors shift their focus from sovereign bonds
Asset reduction primarily achieved through opportunistic sales and proactive asset management
| ( ) in € bn |
No io l Va lu t na e |
Ne As * t ts se |
R is k Ex ** p os ur e |
( ) P & L in € m |
C I e f fe O t ( c in € ) m |
M D R *** |
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Se ts g m en |
Ju 1 1 n- |
Ma 1 1 r- |
Ju 1 1 n- |
Ma 1 1 r- |
Ju 1 1 n- |
Ma 1 1 r- |
Ju 1 1 n- |
F Y 2 0 1 0 |
H 1 2 0 1 1 |
Ju 1 1 n- |
|
| R M B S |
4. 5 |
4. 8 |
1. 9 |
2. 0 |
2. 6 |
2. 8 |
1 7 |
1 9 1 |
2 7 - |
4 1 % |
|
| C M B S |
0. 6 |
0. 6 |
0. 4 |
0. 4 |
0. 4 |
0. 4 |
9 - |
2 | 1 1 - |
3 9 % |
|
| C D O |
9. 5 |
1 0. 2 |
3. 6 |
3. 8 |
5. 7 |
6. 2 |
1 2 9 |
2 5 7 |
3 4 - |
3 9 % |
|
| S O t he A B r |
2. 2 |
2. 8 |
1. 7 |
2. 1 |
1. 9 |
2. 4 |
4 0 |
9 3 |
5 | 1 6 % |
|
| P F I / In fra |
4. 1 |
4. 2 |
1. 3 |
1. 3 |
3. 6 |
3. 7 |
4 3 - |
2 8 - |
0 | 1 2 % |
|
| C I R C S |
0. 6 |
0. 7 |
0. 3 |
0. 4 |
0. 0 |
0. 0 |
1 - |
3 - |
0 | - | |
| O he t rs |
2. 3 |
3. 0 |
2. 0 |
2. 5 |
0. 2 |
0. 3 |
3 2 |
1 6 - |
0 | - | |
| To l ta |
2 3. 8 |
2 6. 3 |
1 1. 2 |
1 2. 5 |
1 4. 4 |
1 5. 8 |
1 6 5 |
7 6 6 |
-6 8 |
3 9 % |
* Net Assets includes both "Buy" and "Sell" Credit Derivatives; all are included on a Mark to Market basis; ** Risk Exposure only includes "Sell" Credit derivatives. The exposure is then calculated as if we hold the long Bond (Notional less PV of derivative); *** Markdown-Ratio = 1-(Risk Exposure / Notional value)
Default Portfolio (Q2 2011)
Default portfolio and coverage ratios by segment
€m – excluding/includingGLLP
incl. Others and Consolidation
Martin Blessing CEO Banking & Insurance CEO Conference 2011
Loan to Value figures in the CRE business (Q2 2011)
Loan to Value – USA1
stratified representation
Loan to values based on market values; exclusive margin lines andcorporate loans; additional collateral not taken into account.
Loan to Value – Spain1
stratified representation
Loan to Value – CRE total 1 stratified representation
All figures relate to business secured by mortgages. Values in parentheses: December 2010.
Group equity definitions
| R i l i i f i d f i i i t t t e c o n c a o n o e q u y e n o n s R i l i i f i d f i i i |
E i b i f R E t q u y a s s o r o |
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| t t t e c o n c a o n o e q e n o n s u y |
H 1 2 0 |
1 1 |
||
| Eq i de f in i io in € ty t u ns m |
f Pe En d o io d r |
Av er ag e |
||
| Su bs i be d c i l ta cr ap |
5, 1 1 3 |
3, 5 3 0 |
||
| Ca i l re ta p se rve |
1 0, 8 8 9 |
3, 8 9 7 |
||
| Re ine d e ing ta ar n s |
8, 5 0 4 |
9, 2 5 6 |
||
| S i len ic ip ion So F F in / A l l ian t p t t ar a s z |
2, 6 8 7 |
1 3, 9 9 4 |
||
| Cu la ion tra t rre nc y ns re se rve |
-4 3 5 |
3 7 0 - |
||
| Co l i da d P & L te ns o |
8 8 8 |
8 4 8 |
||
| Ca In ' i l w i ho l l in in to ta t t n tro te ts ve s rs p on -co n g re s u |
2 7, 6 4 6 |
3 1, 1 5 5 |
Ba is fo Ro E f i t p t s r on n e ro |
|
| No l l ing in ( I F R S ) * tro te ts n-c on res |
8 3 9 |
8 2 5 |
||
| In ' Ca i l to ta ve s rs p |
5 2 8, 4 8 |
3 1, 9 8 0 |
is fo in Ba t Ro E d -ta Ro E s r o p er a g an p re x |
|
| C ha in l i da d c ies / g dw i l l / c l i da d te te t ng e co ns o om p an oo on so ne f i inu ion f d iv i de d / o he t m t t p ro s p or o n rs |
-4 2 3 7 , |
|||
| Ba l I I c i l w i ho hy br i d i l ta t t ta se or e ca p ca p u |
2 3, 7 6 2 |
|||
| Hy br i d c i l ta ap |
3, 9 3 0 |
|||
| Ba l I I T ie I c i l ta se r ap |
2 6 9 2 7, |
* excluding: Revaluation reserve and cash flow hedges
For more information, please contact Commerzbank´s IR team:
Jürgen Ackermann (Head of Investor Relations)
P: +49 69 136 22338
Equity / Fixed Income IR
Michael H. Klein (Head)P: +49 69 136 24522M: [email protected]
Sandra BüschkenP: +49 69 136 23617M: [email protected]
Ute Heiserer-JäckelP: +49 69 136 41874M: [email protected]
Simone NuxollP: +49 69 136 45660M: [email protected]
Stefan PhilippiP: +49 69 136 45231M: [email protected]
Financial Reporting / Rating Strategic Research
Klaus-Dieter Schallmayer (Head)P: +49-69 136 25154M: [email protected]
Wennemar von BodelschwinghP: +49 69 136 43611M: [email protected]
Michael DesprezP: +49 69 136 25136M: [email protected]
Patricia NovakP: +49 69 136 46442M: [email protected]
Dirk Bartsch (Head)P: +49 69 136 2 2799 M: [email protected]
Volker von KrüchtenP: +49 69 136 25139 M: [email protected]
Ulf PlesmannP: +49 69 136 43888 M: [email protected]
Disclaimer
Investor Relations
This presentation contains forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are statements that are not historical facts; they include statements about Commerzbank's beliefs and expectations and the assumptions underlying them. These statements are based on plans, estimates, projections and targets as they are currently available to the management of Commerzbank. Forward-looking statements therefore speak only as of the date they are made, and Commerzbank undertakes no obligation to update publicly any of them in light of new information or future events. By their very nature, forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties. A number of important factors could therefore cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in any forward-looking statement. Such factors include, among others, the conditions in the financial markets in Germany, in Europe, in the United States and elsewhere from which Commerzbank derives a substantial portion of its revenues and in which it hold a substantial portion of its assets, the development of assetprices and market volatility, potential defaults of borrowers or trading counterparties, the implementation of its strategic initiatives and the reliability of its risk management policies.
In addition, this presentation contains financial and other information which has been derived from publicly available information disclosed by persons other than Commerzbank ("external data"). In particular, external data has been derived from industry and customer-related data and other calculations taken or derived from industry reports published by third parties, market research reports and commercial publications. Commercial publications generally state that the information they contain has originated from sources assumed to be reliable, but that the accuracy and completeness of such information is not guaranteed and that the calculations contained therein are based on a series of assumptions. The external data has not been independently verified by Commerzbank. Therefore, Commerzbank cannot assume any responsibility for the accuracy of the external data taken or derived from public sources.
Copies of this document are available upon request or can be downloaded from www.commerzbank.com/aktionaere/index.htm