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Commerzbank AG — Earnings Release 2023
Feb 15, 2024
81_ip_2024-02-15_f848a564-13d5-4532-b7f1-fe59dc6d291d.pdf
Earnings Release
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Strong performance in 2023 – strategy is delivering
Analyst conference – Q4 2023 / FY 2023 preliminary and unaudited results
Manfred Knof CEO
We had a great business year 2023
Delivered on Strategy 2024 one year early
New business model geared towards revenue growth
Costs managed strictly in line with CIR target
Capital distribution of €1bn to shareholders
Green transformation with SBTi path to
net-zero firmly anchored in strategy
Increased return of 7.7% at high 14.7% CET1 ratio
Strong revenues (+11%) from customer business and rates
Costs contained – CIR of 61%
Good asset quality with 23bps cost of risk – carry over of €453m top-level-adjustment
50% pay-out ratio with €600m buyback and planned ~35 cent dividend
15 February 2024 Commerzbank, Manfred Knof, CEO, Frankfurt 3
First milestones of Strategy 2027 reached
Acquisition1 of 74.9% in Aquila Capital Investmentgesellschaft (ACI) to drive sustainable asset management
Provide customers with renewable real-asset investment opportunities
Group´s real asset portfolio grows to more than €40bn
Payments
Joint Venture1 with Global Payments Inc. to enhance digital payment capabilities
Offer one-stop-shop digital payment services for merchants
Enhanced value proposition for small business customers
Equity Capital Markets
Expansion of Swiss ECM activities in strong partnership with ODDO BHF
Exclusivity to underwrite and execute ECM transactions for all products
Enlargement of research coverage universe from 27 to ~50 companies in Switzerland
1) Transaction subject to regulatory approvals
Top priorities of the management board for 2024
Ensure delivery of targeted capital return
Grow fee income
Strict performance and strategyexecution management
Strengthen customer loyality
Improve employee satisfaction
Moving Forward
2023 was an excellent year for Commerzbank
First tangible achievements in our strategy 'Moving Forward'
Positive outlook for 2024 with the clear target of a pay-out ratio1 of at least 70%
1) Pay-out ratio based on net result after potential (fully discretionary) AT1 coupon payments; pay-out not exceeding net result after potential AT1 coupon payments
Bettina Orlopp CFO
Strong operating performance
| Result | Revenues | Costs | Risk | Capital |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY operating result of €3,421m (Q4 €542m) FY net result of €2,224m (Q4 €395m) FY RoTE of 7.7% |
FY revenues of €10,461m (Q4 €2,409m) even though burdened by increase of provisions for CHF loans to -€1,094m (Q4 -€340m) Q4 NII up 9% YoY Q4 NCI nearly stable YoY |
FY CIR of 61% FY costs of €6,422m in line with target |
FY -€618m (Q4 -€252m) risk result well within expectations Total remaining TLA of €453m NPE ratio at 0.8% |
CET1 ratio improved to 14.7% with comfortable buffer to MDA Total €1bn distribution planned – 50% pay-out ratio consisting of up to €600m share buyback currently in execution and planned ~35 cents dividend subject to AGM approval |
Strong operating performance driven by higher revenues
1) Consolidated result attributable to Commerzbank shareholders and investors in additional equity components
2) Includes net result reduced by pay-out accrual and potential (fully discretionary) AT1 coupons
Exceptional items net slightly positive in 2023
| 2022 | (€m) | Revenues | 2023 | (€m) | Revenues | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | Hedging & valuation adjustments |
17 | 56 | Q1 | Hedging & valuation adjustments |
9 | 13 |
| PPA Consumer Finance (PSBC) |
-6 | PPA Consumer Finance (PSBC) |
-7 | ||||
| TLTRO benefit (O&C) |
45 | Credit holidays in Poland (PSBC) |
11 | ||||
| Q2 | Hedging & valuation adjustments |
48 | 111 | Q2 | Hedging & valuation adjustments |
17 | 9 |
| Consumer (PSBC) PPA Finance |
-5 | Consumer (PSBC) PPA Finance |
-6 | ||||
| TLTRO (O&C) benefit |
42 | Credit (PSBC) holidays in Poland |
-2 | ||||
| Prov judgement pricing of (PSBC) accounts . re on |
27 | ||||||
| Q3 | Hedging & valuation adjustments |
84 | 181 - |
Q3 | Hedging & valuation adjustments |
33 | 27 |
| Consumer (PSBC) PPA Finance |
-5 | Consumer (PSBC) PPA Finance |
-5 | ||||
| TLTRO (O&C) benefit |
9 | ||||||
| Credit holidays in Poland (PSBC) |
-270 | ||||||
| Q4 | Hedging & valuation adjustments |
-118 | 38 - |
Q4 | Hedging & valuation adjustments |
-45 | 25 - |
| PPA Consumer Finance (PSBC) |
-4 | PPA Consumer Finance (PSBC) |
-5 | ||||
| TLTRO benefit (O&C) |
93 | Credit (PSBC) holidays in Poland |
4 | ||||
| Credit holidays in Poland (PSBC) |
-9 | Prov judgement pricing of (PSBC) accounts . re on |
21 | ||||
| F Y |
52 - |
F Y |
23 |
Net commission income seasonally lower in Q4
Underlying net commission income (€m)
Highlights Q4
Lower NCI in CC QoQ reflects seasonally weaker capital markets business, mainly syndications – YoY NCI -€30m lower as Q4 2022 benefitted from very strong FX business
NCI in PSBC Germany up €20m YoY on improved revenues from the securities business – QoQ stable Seasonally lower NCI in mBank
NII in Q4 nearly on record level
Underlying net interest income (€m)
Highlights Q4
NII at CC QoQ benefits from improved loan margins and stable contribution from deposits PSBC Germany's NII is ~€570m when excluding ca. -€130m effect from adjustments in the replication portfolio – QoQ further reduction mainly driven by increased deposit beta
QoQ higher NII at mBank mainly due to continued effective margin management
Increase in O&C mainly reflects other side of the adjustment in the replication portfolio of PSBC, partly offset by -€30m from remuneration of minimum reserves at ECB at 0% Higher NII in 2023 due to higher rates continues to be largely offset in NFV
15 February 2024 Commerzbank, Bettina Orlopp, CFO, Frankfurt 12
2024 NII outlook ~€7.9bn based on current forward rates
Development in NII
(€bn)
Base assumptions for NII outlook 2024
Interest rates1
- Average ECB deposit rate: ~3.5%
- Average 10y swap rate: ~ 2.6%
Deposit beta2
▪ Average deposit beta in Germany: ~35%
Deposit volume
▪ Slight increase of deposit volume starting from ~€258bn at end of 2023
mBank
▪ NII expected slightly below level of 2023 assuming unchanged interest rates
Comments
Average deposit beta in 2023 was ~25% and ~30% in Q4 – December exit beta was ~32% reflecting strong inflow of call money in Q4
Expected >€400m higher NII from replication portfolio including benefits from equity model
Volume of modelled deposits at €123bn at end of 2023
2) Deposit beta is the average interest pass-through rate to customers across interest bearing and non-interest bearing deposit products
Mitigants can counter potentially lower rates
Mitigating measures in case of lower rates
- Beta management
- Higher loan growth and margins
- Partial offset in NFV
- Better securities business
- Strict CIR management
We expect NII in 2025 slightly below 2024
1) Deposit beta is the average interest pass-through rate to customers across interest bearing and non-interest bearing deposit products
Main sensitivities for NII
15 February 2024 Commerzbank, Bettina Orlopp, CFO, Frankfurt 14
Total costs within target of €6.4bn
Highlights 12M
Compared to last year, operating expenses rose as a result of general salary increases as well as increases of accruals for variable compensation and inflation compensation payments
Compulsory contribution (€m)
Decreasing European bank levy (-€91m) due to lower target volume for 2023 in Q1 driven by reduced growth for European covered deposits and increase of payment commitments in Q2 Less contribution to Deposit Guarantee Scheme following introduction of Institutional Protection Scheme in Poland in 2022 (-€102m)
Total costs within target of €6.4bn due to continuously active cost management compensating further inflation effects
High credit quality maintained
Risk result (€m)
Risk result divisional split
| Risk Result (€m) |
Q4 2022 |
Q3 2023 |
Q4 2023 |
FY 2022 |
FY 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Small-Business Customers Germany Private and |
-102 | -39 | -92 | -218 | -231 |
| mBank | -39 | -55 | -109 | -174 | -241 |
| Corporate Clients |
-121 | -4 | -36 | -446 | -155 |
| Others & Consolidation |
40 | 7 | -15 | -38 | 8 |
| Group | -222 | -91 | -252 | -876 | -618 |
| NPE (€bn) |
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Private and Small-Business Customers Germany |
0.7 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.8 |
| mBank | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| Small-Business Customers Private and |
1.8 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 2.1 |
| Corporate Clients |
2.8 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 2.5 |
| Others Consolidation & |
1.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| Group | 5.7 | 5.2 | 4.8 | 5.7 | 4.8 |
| Group NPE ratio (in %) |
1.1 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| Group CoR (bps) (year-to-date) |
17 | 9 | 11 | 17 | 11 |
| Group CoR on Loans (CoRL) (bps) (year-to-date) |
33 | 18 | 23 | 33 | 23 |
Highlights Q4
Risk result in PSBC Germany driven by model adjustments such as forward looking booking of 'Future of IRB' impact
mBank with higher risk result due to model recalibration and new backstop indicator
FY 2023 risk result in CC benefits from releases, especially in Q3
NPE ratio on a slightly lower level at 0.8% CoRL of 23 bps in line with expectations
€453m top level adjustment remains available
Highlights Q4
Re-calculation based on the current portfolio and changed underlying macroeconomic assumptions led to a reduction of TLA in PSBC and an increase in CC
TLA of O&C unchanged at €4m
€453m TLA available to cover expected secondary effects from supply chains, uncertainties from inflation, and the impact of the current restrictive monetary policy
Strong customer business – burdens in Q4
Group operating result (€m)
Group P&L
| €m | Q4 2022 |
Q3 2023 |
Q4 2023 |
FY 2022 |
FY 2023 |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues | 2,363 | 2,755 | 2,409 | 9,461 | 10,461 | |
| Exceptional items |
-38 | 27 | -25 | -52 | 23 | |
| Revenues excl. exceptional items |
2,401 | 2,727 | 2,434 | 9,513 | 10,438 | |
| o/w Net interest income |
1,869 | 2,171 | 2,130 | 6,290 | 8,391 | |
| o/w Net commission income |
806 | 831 | 798 | 3,519 | 3,386 | |
| o/w Net fair value result |
-25 | -100 | -157 | 419 | -372 | |
| o/w Other income |
-249 | -175 | -338 | -715 | -967 | |
| Risk result |
-222 | -91 | -252 | -876 | -618 | |
| Personnel expenses |
880 | 917 | 878 | 3,415 | 3,562 | |
| Administrative expenses |
673 | 587 | 679 | 2,429 | 2,444 | |
| Operating expenses |
1,553 | 1,504 | 1,557 | 5,844 | 6,006 | |
| Compulsory contributions |
59 | 45 | 59 | 642 | 415 | |
| Operating result |
528 | 1,116 | 542 | 2,099 | 3,421 | |
| Restructuring expenses |
40 | 6 | 4 | 94 | 18 | |
| profit Commerzbank Pre-tax Group |
488 | 1,109 | 537 | 2,005 | 3,403 | |
| Taxes on income |
-41 | 405 | 166 | 612 | 1,188 | |
| Minority interests |
57 | 20 | -24 | -42 | -10 | |
| Net result |
472 | 684 | 395 | 1,435 | 2,224 | |
| CIR (excl. compulsory contributions) (%) |
65.7 | 54.6 | 64.6 | 61.8 | 57.4 | |
| CIR (incl. compulsory contributions) (%) |
68.2 | 56.2 | 67.1 | 68.6 | 61.4 | |
| Net RoTE (%) |
6.7 | 9.6 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 7.7 | |
| Operating RoCET (%) |
8.8 | 17.6 | 8.5 | 8.7 | 13.7 | |
Highlights Q4
Revenues up 1% YoY driven by underlying NII up 14%
Other income lower -36% YoY mainly reflects burden from CHF mortgages at mBank
NFV result reflects residual market valuations after application of hedge accounting, revaluation of a participation and partial offset of higher NII
FY tax rate of 35% – provisions for legal risk of CHF mortgages in Poland largely not taxdeductible
PSBC: increasing deposits – ongoing shift in deposit mix
Highlights Q4
Higher securities volume by around €10bn QoQ – thereof about €11bn due to market moves, partially offset by around -€1bn outflows as customers realised profits
German mortgage business largely stable at €94bn
Consumer finance book lower at €3.1bn
QoQ higher deposit volume driven by inflows into call accounts
Good core business in PSBC Germany – one-offs in Q4
Operating result PSBC Germany Segmental P&L PSBC Germany (€m)
| 403 | 481 | -208 | 325 | 389 | 286 | 388 | -39 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| €m | Q4 2022 |
Q3 2023 |
Q4 2023 |
FY 2022 |
FY 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues | 1,052 | 1,046 | 896 | 4,318 | 4,139 |
| Exceptional items |
-4 | -5 | 17 | 7 | -2 |
| Revenues excl. exceptional items |
1,056 | 1,052 | 879 | 4,311 | 4,140 |
| o/w Private Customers |
793 | 786 | 652 | 3,192 | 3,050 |
| o/w Small-Business Customers |
218 | 230 | 185 | 847 | 871 |
| o/w Commerz Real |
45 | 36 | 42 | 272 | 220 |
| Risk result |
-102 | -39 | -92 | -218 | -231 |
| Operating expenses |
803 | 705 | 800 | 2,875 | 2,930 |
| Compulsory contributions |
22 | 4 | 15 | 134 | 100 |
| Operating result |
124 | 299 | -10 | 1,091 | 878 |
| (end of €bn) RWA period in |
32.5 | 30.8 | 31.5 | 32.5 | 31.5 |
| CIR (excl. compulsory contributions) (%) |
76.3 | 67.4 | 89.3 | 66.6 | 70.8 |
| CIR (incl. compulsory contributions) (%) |
78.5 | 67.7 | 90.9 | 69.7 | 73.2 |
| Operating on equity (%) return |
12.4 | 30.0 | -1.1 | 27.3 | 21.8 |
Highlights Q4
Stable customer revenues QoQ – lower revenues mainly due to adjustments in the replication portfolio, offset in O&C, and write-down of a participation
-€28m underlying Q4 NFV mainly due to revaluation of a participation
Net increase of customer base in Germany by 31k in Q4 largely due to new deposit customers
mBank: strong underlying business
Operating result mBank
Segmental P&L mBank
| €m | Q4 2022 |
Q3 2023 |
Q4 2023 |
FY 2022 |
FY 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues | 417 | 346 | 307 | 948 | 1,235 |
| Exceptional items |
-7 | -1 | 3 | -279 | 15 |
| Revenues excl. exceptional items |
423 | 347 | 304 | 1,227 | 1,221 |
| Risk result |
-39 | -55 | -109 | -174 | -241 |
| Operating expenses |
141 | 161 | 184 | 539 | 645 |
| Compulsory contributions |
36 | 41 | 43 | 326 | 203 |
| Operating result |
201 | 89 | -28 | -90 | 146 |
| RWA (end of period in €bn) |
21.1 | 20.9 | 22.3 | 21.1 | 22.3 |
| CIR (excl. compulsory contributions) (%) |
33.8 | 46.5 | 59.8 | 56.8 | 52.2 |
| CIR (incl. compulsory contributions) (%) |
42.5 | 58.4 | 73.7 | 91.2 | 68.7 |
| Operating return on equity (%) |
30.2 | 12.9 | -4.1 | -3.3 | 5.4 |
| CHF Provisions for legal risks of loans of mBank |
-92 | -234 | -340 | -650 | -1,094 |
| Credit holidays in Poland |
-9 | - | 4 | -278 | 12 |
| Op. result ex prov. for CHF loans & credit holidays |
301 | 323 | 308 | 839 | 1,228 |
Highlights Q4
Operating result excluding additional provisions for CHF loans and credit holidays increased 2% YoY – QoQ 5% lower due to higher costs and an increased risk result from model calibration and implementation of a new backstop indicator
NII up 3% QoQ mainly due active deposit management
Volume of CHF loans before deductions at €1.9bn; total provisions for legal risk of €1.9bn (thereof €0.4bn liabilities for repaid loans as well as for legal fees) – net volume €0.4bn and coverage ratio of 99.5%
CC: stable loan business – ongoing shift in deposit mix
Deposits
Highlights Q4
QoQ slightly reduced loan volume primarily in International Corporates
Stable deposit volume with ongoing shift from sight to term and call deposits
CC: strong revenues in all client groups
Operating result
Segmental P&L CC
| €m | Q4 2022 |
Q3 2023 |
Q4 2023 |
FY 2022 |
FY 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues | 963 | 1 171 , |
1 106 , |
3 ,792 |
4 481 , |
| Exceptional items |
-31 | 5 | -11 | -32 | 13 |
| Revenues excl. exceptional items |
993 | 1,166 | 1,117 | 3,824 | 4,468 |
| o/w Mittelstand |
591 | 660 | 661 | 2 072 , |
2 ,578 |
| o/w Corporates International |
216 | 285 | 276 | 926 | 1 077 , |
| o/w Institutionals |
176 | 207 | 215 | 602 | 821 |
| o/w others |
10 | 13 | -35 | 224 | -9 |
| Risk result |
-121 | -4 | -36 | -446 | -155 |
| Operating expenses |
629 | 522 | 561 | 2 162 , |
2 111 , |
| Compulsory contributions |
1 | - | - | 120 | 73 |
| Operating result |
211 | 644 | 508 | 1,065 | 2,142 |
| (end of €bn) RWA period in |
81 6 |
83 3 |
82 8 |
81 6 |
82 8 |
| CIR (excl . compulsory contributions) (%) |
65 4 |
44 6 |
50 .7 |
57.0 | 47 1 |
| CIR (incl . compulsory contributions) (%) |
65 .5 |
44 6 |
50 8 |
60 2 |
48 .7 |
| Operating (%) on equity return |
8 3 |
24 .5 |
19 3 |
10 6 |
20 4 |
Highlights Q4
YoY operating result +140% based on higher NII mainly due to deposits with further benefits from low risk result and reduced costs
QoQ overall stable revenues in customer segments
Underlying NCI weaker QoQ due to capital markets business
Underlying FY NFV result nearly stable based on steady customer business
RWA decreased 1% QoQ mainly due to a securitisation transaction and FX effects more than offsetting higher operational risk RWA due to higher operating revenues in FY 2023
O&C: positive contribution in Q4
Segmental P&L O&C
| €m | Q4 2022 |
Q3 2023 |
Q4 2023 |
FY 2022 |
FY 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues | -68 | 192 | 101 | 403 | 606 |
| Exceptional items |
4 | 29 | -34 | 253 | -2 |
| Revenues excl . exceptional items |
-72 | 163 | 135 | 150 | 609 |
| o/w Net interest income |
98 | 291 | 367 | 251 | 1 202 , |
| o/w Net commission income |
-9 | -12 | -11 | -46 | -45 |
| o/w Net fair value result |
-54 | -161 | -214 | 30 | -647 |
| o/w Other income |
-107 | 45 | -7 | -85 | 99 |
| Risk result |
40 | 7 | -15 | -38 | 8 |
| Operating expenses |
-20 | 116 | 13 | 268 | 320 |
| Compulsory contribution |
- | - | 1 | 63 | 40 |
| Operating result |
-8 | 84 | 72 | 34 | 255 |
| RWA (end of period in €bn) |
33 5 |
38 7 |
38 5 |
33 5 |
38 5 |
Highlights Q4
NII at O&C higher QoQ mainly due to offsetting effect of adjustment in replication portfolio of PSBC Germany
NFV result mainly reflects residual market valuations after application of hedge accounting and valuation effects of -€9m from CommerzVentures
RWA decrease QoQ mainly due to lower operational risk RWA allocations
CET1 ratio of 14.7% provides large buffer to MDA
Highlights Q4
Total RWA increased slightly
RWA development by risk types
Slight decreases in market risk RWA and credit risk RWA could not compensate €2bn higher operational risk RWA due to higher operating revenues in FY 2023
1) Includes net result reduced by pay-out accrual and potential (fully discretionary) AT1 coupons
2) Pro-forma MDA based on SREP requirements effective from 1 January 2024
adjustments; partially offset by other comprehensive income
Transition of CET1 ratio1 (%)
Capital increase mainly based on positive net result and regulatory
Targets for 2024
| Revenues | Costs | Risk | Capital | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| We target 4% growth in NCI and NII ~€7.9bn |
We target a CIR of ~60% |
We aim for a risk result < -€800m assuming usage of TLA |
We expect a decreasing CET1 ratio of still >14% due to capital distribution1 to shareholders and RWA growth |
We aim for a net result above last year We target a pay-out ratio2 of 70 + X% – subject to approval of ECB and German Finance Agency |
Targets based on the assumption of a mild recession in Germany and subject to future development of CHF burdens in mBank
1) No accrual of net result to CET1 within the year
2) Pay-out ratio based on net result after potential (fully discretionary) AT1 coupon payments; pay-out not exceeding net result after potential AT1 coupon payments
Appendix
| German economy | 28 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia and risk related information | ||||
| Russia net exposure | 29 | |||
| Commerzbank's risk provisions related to stages |
30 | |||
| Focus sectors: automotive, machinery, energy/utilities, construction/paper, chemicals/plastics, metals |
31-37 | |||
| Commercial real estate | 38 | |||
| Residential mortgage business | 39 | |||
| Corporate responsibility |
| Renewable energy portfolio | 40 |
|---|---|
| Commerzbank AG's green bonds | 41 |
| Sustainable products target | 42 |
| ESG ratings | 43 |
| Commerzbank Group | P&L tables | |
|---|---|---|
| Commerzbank financials at a glance | 44 | |
| Key figures Commerzbank share | 45 | |
| Loan and deposit volumes | 46 | |
| Funding & rating | ||
| Liquidity position / ratios | 47 | |
| Capital markets funding | 48 | |
| Funding maturities & activities | 49 | |
| Mortgage Pfandbrief cover pool |
50 | |
| Public sector Pfandbrief cover pool |
51 | |
| Commerzbank's MREL requirements | 52 | |
| Distance to MDA | 53 | |
| Rating overview | 54 | |
| Capital management | ||
| IAS 19: Pension obligations | 55 | |
| FX impact on CET1 ratio | 56 | |
| Capital Return Policy | 57 | |
| Group equity composition | 58 |
| Commerzbank Group | 59 |
|---|---|
| Private and Small-Business Customers | 60 |
| PSBC Germany | 61 |
| mBank | 62 |
| Corporate Clients | 63 |
| Others & Consolidation | 64 |
| Exceptional revenue items by segment |
65 |
| Glossary | 66 |
| Contacts & financial calendar | 67 |
| Disclaimer | 68 |
German economy expected to stay weak
Latest development
The recovery of the German economy that many had hoped for is still a long time coming. According to a first estimate, real GDP actually fell by 0.3% in Q4.
The economy continues to be held back by the strong inflation of the past two years which has depressed real incomes and is therefore likely to be the main reason for weak private consumption to date. However, the massive rate hikes by the ECB and many other central banks, which are curbing demand for German products at home and abroad, are also increasingly having an effect.
Unemployment has risen in recent months due to the weak economy. However, the number of unemployed persons remains significantly lower than it has been for most of the past 40 years.
The inflation rate declined further to 2.9% in January. Energy prices, for example, have recently not risen nearly as much as a year ago; in some cases they have even fallen slightly. The same applies to food prices. However, at 3.4%, the core inflation rate excluding energy and food was recently still well above the ECB's target of 2%.
Outlook for 2024
Significantly lower leading indicators and fewer new orders for manufacturing and the construction sector suggest that the German economy will not pick up any time soon. While it is true that the burden of energy prices is easing, many other conditions have deteriorated noticeably. The ECB and most other western central banks have massively increased interest rates, which is increasingly slowing down the economy with the usual delay.
This argues against a rapid economic recovery. It is more likely that the German economy will continue to shrink at the start of 2024. A very hesitant recovery at best is also to be expected for the rest of the year in view of the ECB remaining on the brakes. We therefore assume that real GDP will shrink slightly on average this year - as it did in 2023.
The inflation rate will probably fall in the coming months. This is because food prices are likely to decelerate further. Price pressure from increased material costs is also easing. However, underlying inflation will remain well above the ECB's target of 2%, as the next wave of costs has already reached companies with the noticeably stronger rise in wages. As a result, the ECB is not likely to cut its key interest rate until the summer despite the weak economy.
Russia net exposure reduced by €67m in Q4 2023
Russia exposure
| 2022 | 2023 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net exposure (€m) |
18 Feb |
29 Apr |
15 Jul |
30 Sep |
31 Dec |
31 Mar |
30 Jun |
30 Sep |
31 Dec |
||
| Corporates | 621 | 580 | 398 | 322 | 261 | 217 | 184 | 161 | 148 | ||
| – thereof at Eurasija |
392 | 374 | 182 | 98 | 61 | 46 | 37 | 31 | 21 | ||
| Banks | 528 | 78 | 75 | 61 | 46 | 44 | 15 | 15 | 14 | ||
| Sovereign (at Eurasija) |
127 | 137 | 182 | 161 | 87 | 66 | 57 | 45 | 47 | ||
| Pre-export finance | 590 | 396 | 362 | 369 | 350 | 318 | 320 | 190 | 135 | ||
| Total | 1,866 | 1,191 | 1,017 | 913 | 744 | 645 | 576 | 411 | 344 |
Group exposure net of ECA and cash held at Commerzbank reduced to €344m
Additionally, Eurasija holds domestic RUB deposits of ~€0.4bn (€0.5bn Sep 23) at Russian Central Bank/Moscow Currency Exchange
We continue to reduce exposures while supporting existing clients in compliance with all sanctions regulations
Stable exposure with adequate risk provisions including TLA
Risk provisions (€m)
Highlights Q4
Exposure1
Exposure increase in stage 2 driven by mBank Reduced exposure with increased coverage
in stage 3
Overall level of TLA increased to €453m
TLA increases the effective coverage of our credit portfolio mainly in stage 2
1) Exposure at Default relevant for IFRS 9 accounting (on- and off-balance exposures in the accounting categories AC and FVOCI; figures of previous quarters partly adjusted)
2) Note: TLA is not assigned to stages, hence it is not included in the coverage
15 February 2024 Commerzbank, Bettina Orlopp, CFO, Frankfurt 30
Focus sectors
Corporates' sectors
(€bn | EaD)
Share within Commerzbank's portfolio 12/2023
Automotive
Portfolio development
Portfolio comments / sector outlook
- Q3 saw some suppliers performing below expectations due to selective supply chain challenges and eMobility call-offs being below target. 2023 full year results are nonetheless expected to be at least stable. 2024 will proof as challenging as previous years as demand remains constrained (e.g. due to inflation and interest rate levels) and structural challenges becoming more and more the driving force for credit risks
- Even though global car demand is forecasted to continue to grow, the challenges of the disruptive and dynamic technological transformation, management of supply chains in light of geopolitical risks, advent of new competitors and more and more indications of eroding competitiveness in the EU and particularly Germany is putting pressure on OEMs and suppliers alike
- OEM/Tier1-supplier are the cornerstone of our portfolio and are assessed to emerge from current challenges fundamentally intact. Exceptionally strong OEM profit levels seen in 2022 and 2023 are expected to moderate somewhat in 2024
- Suppliers had already to deal with margin pressure due to strong increases of input price levels. Clients with weaknesses in its business model, e.g. a weaker market position, will find it hard to pass through increased costs, eroding margins. Effective cost optimisation will be a key area for management attention of many suppliers. We also observe that profits are increasingly driven by operations outside Germany, which is creating challenges for corporates without sufficient size or financial means to localise operations
- Client-specific risk factors are assessed to materialise from time to time, leading to a moderate increase of intensive care cases. Usual reasons triggering a transfer include short term liquidity needs or complex refinancing situations. Commerzbank is continuously evaluating and mitigating respective risks by increasing structural protections and consult early on with the client and all related internal functions, including the intensive care department
Sector portfolio based on BSS (Industry Control Key) Sector Outlook
Machinery
Portfolio comments / sector outlook
- Overall stable sector due to internationalization and very high diversification within the portfolio
- Supply chain disruptions (delays, shortages, esp. critical parts) generally eased and higher material prices as well as upstream products are included in calculations. Where these prices fall they support earnings. Prices for services and labour costs are rising and a shortage of manpower is amongst the main challenges for the clients. Measures to offset the persisting negative effects were taken and we see that bigger players in general are able to handle these challenges better
- The decline in order intake due to the general cooling of the world economy and increasing interest rates have a visible effect for the majority of our clients. Where relevant, current order books cover the production until mid/end 2024
- With a slowing demand, prices for new orders could come under pressure again and therefore negatively influence future earnings in 2024. A strict cost management is helping here to manage these effects
- While higher prices will keep the utilisation of facilities high, we expect to see a declining utilisation due to melting order books especially for guarantee business. Strong market players request cash financing when they see a good opportunity to consolidate their respective market or broaden their product range or production capability
Energy / Utilities
Portfolio comments / sector outlook
- Energy sector: As part of the critical infrastructure, the sector is fundamentally stable, albeit was strongly affected by the erratic price development, especially gas in 2022. Thanks to massive governmental interventions across Europe and the very mild winter periods 2022/23 and 2023/24 (so far), the price level have evened out on an overall acceptable level. The energy supply for the remaining winter of 2023/24 seems to be secure. Gas storage is high across Europe. Russian energy exports no longer play a significant role in Europe's energy supply (the US is now the main supplier of LNG to Europe), although some risk factors remain
- Our portfolio is mainly dominated by large international corporates with integrated business models (generation, trade, storage, grids, distribution). Current developments include the strong expansion of renewable energy capacities with increasing investment requirements, the security of supply and the decarbonisation of the heating sector. Fossil energy sources continue to decline. Renewable energies expansion requires the expansion/optimisation of the grid and the construction of additional storage capacities. Meanwhile the outlook for the main sub-sectors is "green", but we are still very reluctant towards wholesale electricity, gas and coal companies (especially discount providers). Our outlook "red" for the sub-sector "energy trading" remains unchanged
- In Germany there is an urgent need to establish a regulatory framework for 1) new gas-fired power plants (acc. BMWK2 15-25 GW until 2030), incentive and investment security for implementation are still unclear and must be established as soon as possible (e.g. capacity mechanism), 2) building up a hydrogen economy and infrastructure and 3) and a further decarbonised heating infrastructure
- Nevertheless and overall, the financial effects for the energy sector should be manageable
Sector portfolio based on BSS (Industry Control Key) Sector Outlook
- 1) "Other" sub-portfolio generally includes individual major exposures that carry out business activities in various subsectors and are not allocated to a sub-portfolio. Due to the diversification of these clients, no uniform sector outlook can be given
- 2) BMWK: Bundesministerium für Wirtschaft und Klimaschutz / Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action
Construction / Paper
Portfolio comments / sector outlook
- The construction portfolio is diversified with a high proportion of borrowers with investment grade ratings. Bigger customers are international companies in Europe. The financing focus lies in the short-term and guarantee business
- The increases in material and energy costs led to a significant increase of building costs. The sharp rise in energy costs, the rise in interest rates and due to the accelerating inflation consumers suffer a significant loss of purchasing power. This has led to a significant decline of incoming orders mainly in the private sector but also for commercial investments in Germany. In comparison, infrastructure investments are more stable
- The slowing demand shows a significant negative impact on the construction supply industry and the building materials trade. At the moment we do not see any relaxation in 2024
- Due to necessary investments in the production plants the portfolio in the paper sector has a higher part of mid- and long-term credit facilities. The credit exposure increased continuously over the last months. Due to the deteriorating economy, companies are currently postponing further investments
- The paper industry is experiencing a significant decline in demand due to the overall economic reluctance to buy. This requires price reductions on the sales side, which exceed the material cost savings and the relief on the energy side. Some companies temporally reduce there production. Therefore we see a lower profitability, but nevertheless on an acceptable level
- Mainly the larger companies have broader opportunities to face the current challenges and were able to build up sufficient buffers in the past
Sector portfolio based on BSS (Industry Control Key) Sector Outlook
Chemicals / Plastics
Portfolio comments / sector outlook
- Weak economic developments in Germany and Europe as well as falling export quotas to China slowed down the chemical industry. Global chemical production rose by only 2.3% by November 2023. Production losses due to unfavourable site conditions were at -8.7% in the EU27 and at -11% in Germany. With 81% of the relevant EaD in investment grade, the risk profile remains good. Outlook: at best, companies expect stable sales and a 15-25% decline in EBITDA for 2023. Large companies and global players generally have strong financial resources and are able to cope with the economic impact whereas the risk profile of SMEs is temporarily decreasing (especially in the plastics sector)
- The chemical industry as an energy intensive sector use oil/gas as raw material source as well. Despite the multiple crises in the global environment, prices for oil/gas came back to a normal level. Nevertheless, the recessive trends in the global economy let decrease the demand in the customer markets. Companies are taking the following countermeasures: cost-cutting programs, price increases (price escalation clauses) and investment reduction to stabilise their operative income. Especially in Germany the industry faces high production costs, regulations, bureaucracy and weak demand for chemicals. That is why the trend of domestic de-industrialisation is ongoing
- Plastic as an important industry with composite materials follows the cyclical nature of their customer markets and is mostly anchored in the small and medium-sized businesses. Companies are often not able to pass on the energy/raw material prices directly (time lag). Therefore the margins are temporarily weakened
Sector portfolio based on BSS (Industry Control Key) Sector Outlook
1) EaD peak in 09/2023 due to technical reasons only
Metals
Portfolio comments / sector outlook
- The metal portfolio is diversified with a high share of borrowers with investment grade ratings. The portfolio is also regionally wide spread with a high share of international exposures. The focus is primarily on short and mid term business. Against this background, the portfolio is well-prepared for a recession scenario. However sector strategy is still on hold due to the ongoing structural challenges
- Metal production and processing are highly affected by energy and gas price development. Gas serves both, as a process component and a primary energy source in the production process. The metal industry is often at the beginning of the value chain and can trigger a knock-on effect with considerable consequences for the buying industries, especially automotive, machinery and construction. Global positioning protects some groups with diversified locations. Production sites in America, Asia and parts of Europe outside the primarily affected countries can temporarily balance out negative influences in individual locations. Moreover, many players have fixed energy contracts for several years to mitigate the bulk of the energy price risk. However some groups (especially aluminium and steel production) cut production in Europe because of the high energy prices
- The metal industry had a strong performance in the past two years and the first quarter 2023 because of the rising prices and the good business environment. Due to the economic downturn this came to an end in 2023. The earnings' situation deteriorated especially in the second half of 2023 due to shrinking demand and higher costs (materials, energy, personal). However, producers are entering this downturn in a better leveraged position than in previous periods with better liquidity and equity reserves, which were built up from the good operating profitability in the last years. Overall, the sector outlook is slightly negative
Sector portfolio based on BSS (Industry Control Key) Sector Outlook
1) "Other" sub-portfolio generally includes individual major exposures that carry out business activities in various subsectors and are not allocated to a sub-portfolio. Due to the diversification of these clients, no uniform sector outlook can be given
Commercial Real Estate (asset-based)
(€bn | EaD Performing)
Fixed interest period 12/23 (€bn | EaD)
Portfolio
- Portfolio amounts to €9.0bn of which €0.3bn is nonperforming exposure (~4% of total portfolio)
- Sound rating profile with a high share of 81% with investment grade quality
- EaD share to IFRS9 stages: 91% in S1 (93% 09/23), 5% in S2 (5% 09/23) and 4% in S3 (increase due to one new client in S3; 2% 09/2023)
- Assets focused on most attractive A-cities. Over 99% of financed objects are located in Germany
- Offices and residential with the highest share of the portfolio (together €6.4bn)
- Average LTV is 51% largest asset class office with 51% LTV
- Nearly 50% of the portfolio with full or partial recourse to the sponsor or borrower
- Development risk with about 6% share of the portfolio; increased requirements implemented
Strategy
▪ As a result of the current macroeconomic situation, the new business strategy will continue to be cautious. Strong restraint in the non-food retail sector
1) City categories according to Bulwiengesa. Category A represents the seven most attractive and liquid real estate cities in Germany
2) Until further notice or variable interest rate
15 February 2024
Residential mortgage business and property prices
German residential properties (index values)
Single family houses Multi family houses
Prices of houses and flats, existing stock and newly constructed dwellings, averages
Overall mortgage portfolio
▪ Mortgage volume decreased QoQ and YoY – risk quality remained stable so far:
- Rating profile with a share of 92.9% in investment grade ratings (09/23: 92.7%); poor rating classes 4.x/5.x with 1.4% share only
-
Vintages of recent years developed more favorably so far; NPE-ratio remains at a low level of less than 0.4% (coverage 88%)
-
New business in Q4 2023 with €1.3bn around 40% lower than in previous quarter and still on much lower level than in previous years
- PD in new business slightly improved to 0.48% (Q3/23 0.50%), repayment rates slightly up from 2.39% to 2.57%
- Portfolio guidelines and observations for PD, LtCV and repayment rates are continuously monitored. Compared to the drawn loan volume, the EaD (exposure at default) also considers undrawn commitments
- Average "Beleihungsauslauf" (BLA) in new business of 82.6% in Q4/23 (82.2% in Q3). German BLA is more conservative than the internationally used LtV definition due to the application of the strict German Pfandbrief law
- Increased costs of living are adequately taken into account in the application process
Risk parameters unchanged, but economic environment of high interest rates, inflation and recession is still challenging
Development of renewable energy portfolio
Renewable energy portfolio (€bn | eop)
1) MLA = Mandated Lead Arranger
2) Project finance only
Global footprint of renewable energy financing
Offshore:
Commerzbank active globally as MLA1 and lender with offshore projects in Germany, France, Belgium, UK and Taiwan
International RE project finance:
amongst others US, UK, France, Netherlands and Spain
Core market Germany: approx. 43% of portfolio in Germany
Commerzbank AG has 3 outstanding green bonds with a total volume of €1.6bn
Commerzbank Green Bond Framework1
An amount equivalent to the net proceeds will be used exclusively to (re)finance eligible renewable energy loans. The assigned green assets are subject to an annual review by Sustainalytics.
Assigned assets Green Bond DE000CB0HRQ92
(%)
1) The Green Bond Framework can be found here. 2) Based on allocation reporting as of 06/2023.
Allocation by country Allocation by technology
Assigned assets Green Bond DE000CZ45W572
Allocation by country Allocation by technology
(%)
Still good development in difficult environment in 2023
1) 2021 and 2022 numbers based on different method of calculation due to broader scope of included advisory products * Flow value / ** Stock value
2) Adjustment on 28 February 2024 - based on audited figures
(€bn)
194
ESG ratings prove that we are on the right track
ESG Rating
Double A rated in the upper part of the MSCI ESG rating scale
Above industry average positions in terms of privacy & data security, human capital development and financing environmental impact
Severe High Medium Low Negligible
ESG Risk Rating
Commerzbank is at medium risk of experiencing material financial impacts from ESG factors (score of 26.0 / 100 with 0 being the best)
D- D D+ C- C C+ B- B B+ A- A A+
ESG Corporate Rating
Rated in the ISS ESG prime segment and within the top 20% of the industry group
Excellent ratings especially in the categories staff & suppliers, environmental management, corporate governance and business ethics
ESG QualityScores
Commerzbank assigned with low ESG risks by ISS ESG QualityScores
Social QualityScore 1, Environmental QualityScore 2, Governance QualityScore 3
(D-/D) Leadership (A-/A) Management (B-/B) Awareness (C-/C)
Climate Change Rating
Rated B, which indicates that Commerzbank is taking coordinated action on climate issues
Excellent ratings and above industry average positions particularly in the categories emissions reduction initiatives and low carbon products, governance as well as risk management processes
Commerzbank financials at a glance
| Group | Q4 2022 |
Q3 2023 |
Q4 2023 |
FY 2022 |
FY 2023 |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total revenues |
€m | 2,363 | 2,755 | 2,409 | 9,461 | 10,461 |
| Risk result |
€m | -222 | -91 | -252 | -876 | -618 |
| Personnel expenses |
€m | 880 | 917 | 878 | 3,415 | 3,562 |
| Administrative expenses (excl . depreciation) |
€m | 465 | 395 | 466 | 1,609 | 1,651 |
| Depreciation | €m | 208 | 193 | 213 | 820 | 794 |
| Compulsory contributions |
€m | 59 | 45 | 59 | 642 | 415 |
| Operating result |
€m | 528 | 1,116 | 542 | 2,099 | 3,421 |
| Net result |
€m | 472 | 684 | 395 | 1,435 | 2,224 |
| Cost/income ratio (excl . compulsory contributions) |
% | 65.7 | 54.6 | 64.6 | 61.8 | 57.4 |
| Cost/income ratio (incl . compulsory contributions) |
% | 68.2 | 56.2 | 67.1 | 68.6 | 61.4 |
| Accrual for potential AT1 coupon distribution current year |
€m | -45 | -50 | -47 | -196 | -194 |
| Net RoE |
% | 6.5 | 9.2 | 5.0 | 4.7 | 7.4 |
| Net RoTE |
% | 6.7 | 9.6 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 7.7 |
| Total assets |
€m | 477,428 | 509,885 | 517,166 | 477,428 | 517,166 |
| Deposits (amortised cost) |
€m | 352,403 | 367,763 | 379,311 | 352,403 | 379,311 |
| Loans and advances (amortised cost) |
€m | 267,432 | 274,594 | 268,935 | 267,432 | 268,935 |
| RWA | €m | 168,731 | 173,626 | 175,114 | 168,731 | 175,114 |
| CET1¹ | €m | 23,854 | 25,369 | 25,720 | 23,854 | 25,720 |
| CET1 ratio¹ |
% | 14.1 | 14.6 | 14.7 | 14.1 | 14.7 |
| Total capital ratio (with transitional provisions)¹ |
% | 18.9 | 19.2 | 19.3 | 18.9 | 19.3 |
| Leverage ratio¹ |
% | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.9 |
| (LCR) Liquidity coverage ratio |
% | 144.9 | 139.2 | 145.4 | 144.9 | 145.4 |
| (NSFR) Net stable funding ratio |
% | 128.3 | 127.0 | 130.2 | 128.3 | 130.2 |
| NPE ratio |
% | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| Group CoR (year-to-date) |
bps | 17 | 9 | 11 | 17 | 11 |
| Group CoR (CoRL) (year-to-date) on Loans |
bps | 33 | 18 | 23 | 33 | 23 |
| staff (end of period) Full-time equivalents excl. junior |
36,192 | 36,257 | 36,559 | 36,192 | 36,559 |
1) Capital reduced by pay-out accrual and potential (fully discretionary) AT1 coupons
Key figures Commerzbank share
Figures per share
| YE 2020 | YE 2021 | YE 2022 | YE 2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Number of shares issued (m) | 1,252.40 | 1,252.40 | 1,252.40 | 1,240.22 |
| Market capitalisation (€bn) | 6.6 | 8.4 | 11.1 | 13.3 |
| Net asset value per share (€) | 19.80 | 20.502 | 21.602 | 23.333 |
| Low/high Xetra intraday prices (€) |
2.80/6.83 | 4.70/7.19 | 5.17/9.51 | 8.31/12.01 |
1) Based on average number of outstanding shares in the period
2) Restatement
3) Based on number of outstanding shares
Loan and deposit development
PSBC
(€bn | monthly average)
Corporate Clients (€bn | monthly average)
Highlights
FX related increase in loan volume in mBank; stable development in PSBC Germany
Increase in deposit volume mainly at PSBC Germany and also FX related at mBank
In CC, largely stable development of loan volumes across client groups
Deposit volumes increased in Mittelstand and International Corporates
In PSBC Germany >90% of deposits are insured (>65% statutory and >25% private insurance)
In CC >60% of deposits are insured (<5% statutory and almost 60% private insurance)
Comfortable liquidity position
(% | eop)
LCR Net stable funding ratio (NSFR)
Liquidity risk management
- Daily calculation of the liquidity gap profile
- Liquidity reserves are ring-fenced in separate portfolios on the balance sheet (assets and funding respectively)
- Intraday liquidity reserve portfolio (central bank eligible collateral) serves as cushion for a possible intraday stress
- Stress liquidity reserve portfolio consists of highly liquid assets and covers potential liquidity outflows according to the liquidity gap profile under stress
Highly liquid assets
€10.1bn capital markets funding issued in 2023
Benchmarks / Highlights
- Pfandbriefe: €4.35bn Mortgage-Pfandbriefe with maturities between 3 and 10 years €750m 2.5 year Public sector Pfandbrief
- Non-preferred senior: €750m 7NC6 year benchmark and CHF325m 4 and 5 tenor €600m Green bond 5.5NC4.5 issuance
- Tier 2: SGD300m 10.25NC5.25 and SGD300m 10.5NC5.5 €500m 10.25NC5.25 transactions
- mBank funding: Green non-preferred senior €750m 4NC3 bond
Funding plan 2024 around €10bn
In January 2024 (not included in figures): Pfandbriefe: €2bn dual tranche 3 and 7 years Non-preferred senior: €750m 7NC6
Funding structure1 Group issuance activities 2023 (€bn | nominal values)
Expected funding volume 2024 around €10bn
Unsecured Prefered Senior Non-preferred Senior Subordinated Additional Tier 1 others
Maturities until 20272
(€bn)
Covered bonds Senior Unsecured Subordinated debt
Details
Funding activities1
- Continued focus on diversification of funding
- Well balanced maturity profile
1) Nominal value
2) Based on balance sheet figures, senior unsecured bonds includes preferred and non-preferred senior bonds
Mortgage Pfandbrief cover pool (12/2023)
Overview by property type
| Cover pool details1 | |
|---|---|
| ● Total assets: |
€42.4bn |
| Cover loans: | €40.8bn |
| Further assets: | €1.6bn |
| ● Fixed rated assets: |
98% |
| ● Weighted avg. LTV ratio: |
51% |
| ● Outstanding Pfandbriefe: |
€29.5bn |
| ● Fixed rated Pfandbriefe: |
76% |
| ● Cover surplus: |
€12.9bn (44% nom.) |
| ● Moody's rating: |
Aaa |
Highlights
- Only German mortgages
- 98% German residential mortgages, only 2% commercial
- Over 70% of the mortgages are "owner occupied"
- Highly granular cover pool with 75% of the loans are €300k or smaller
1) Commerzbank Disclosures according to §28 Pfandbriefgesetz 31 December 2023
Public Sector Pfandbrief cover pool (12/2023)
Borrower / guarantor & country breakdown
Currency breakdown
| Germany |
|---|
| Switzerland |
| U.K. |
| Austria |
| Italy |
| U.S. |
| Other |
Euro USD GBP CHF
Cover pool details1
| ● Total assets: |
€15.5bn | |
|---|---|---|
| of which are municipal loans : | €7.3bn | |
| of which are export finance loans : | €2.7bn | |
| ● | Fixed rated assets: | 76% |
| ● | Outstanding Pfandbriefe: | €9.2bn |
| ● | Fixed rated Pfandbriefe: | 52% |
| ● | Cover surplus: | €7.3bn |
| (90% nom.) | ||
| ● | Moody's rating: | Aaa |
Highlights
- Commerzbank utilizes the public sector Pfandbrief to support its German municipal lending and guaranteed export finance business.
-
75% are assets from Germany
- Over 80% of the assets are EUR denominated
1) Commerzbank Disclosures according to §28 Pfandbriefgesetz 31 December 2023
Comfortable fulfilment of RWA and LRE MREL requirements
MREL Requirements and M-MDA
Based on data as of 31 December 2023, Commerzbank fulfils its current MREL RWA requirement1 of 27.46% RWA with an MREL ratio of 31.5% RWA and the MREL subordination requirement of 17.99% RWA with a ratio of 27.9% RWA, both including the combined buffer requirement (CBR)
Both, the MREL LRE ratio of 9.4% and MREL subordination LRE ratio of 8.3% comfortably meet the requirement of 6.52%
The issuance strategy is consistent with all RWA and LRE based MREL requirements
1) In May 2023, Commerzbank AG received its current MREL requirement calibrated based on data as of 31 December 2021. The resolution approach is a multiple point of entry (MPE) with two separate resolution groups (resolution group A: Commerzbank Group without mBank subgroup; resolution group B: mBank subgroup). The legally binding MREL (subordination) requirement is defined as a percentage of risk-weighted assets (RWA) and leverage ratio exposure (LRE)
2) Includes amortized amount (regulatory) of Tier 2 instruments with maturity > 1 year
3) According to §46f KWG or non-preferred senior by contract
15 February 2024 Commerzbank, Bettina Orlopp, CFO, Frankfurt 52
Commerzbank's MDA
Distance to MDA
Highlights
453bps distance to MDA based on Q4 2023 CET1 ratio of 14.69% and 2022 SREP requirements
- MDA increased by 3bps compared to Q3 2023 driven by increase in AT1 shortfall (+2bps) and CCyB increase (+1bp)
- Q4 2023 AT1 shortfall of 4bps
435bps distance to MDA based on Q4 2023 CET1 ratio of 14.69% and SREP requirements effective from 1 January 2024
▪ New SREP determined a slight increase of Pillar 2 requirement (P2R) by 25bps to 2.25%, hence increase in CET1 P2R by 14bps and in AT1 shortfall by 5bps (based on RWAs as of Q4 2023)
AT1 layer will continue to be managed to maintain appropriate distance to MDA. Based on the new SREP P2R we target a Tier 2 layer above 2.56% in 2024 – Tier 2 with moderate maturities and issuance needs in 2024
1) Based on RWAs of €175.1bn as of Q4 2023. AT1 requirement of 1.875% and Tier 2 requirement of 2.5%
2) Pro-forma MDA based on SREP requirements effective from 1 January 2024
Rating overview Commerzbank
| As of 15 February 2024 | Recent rating events | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bank ratings |
S&P | Moody's | |||
| Counterparty rating/assessment1 | A | A1/ A1 (cr) | S&P revised the outlook of | ||
| Deposit rating2 | A- positive |
A1 stable | |||
| Issuer credit rating (long-term debt) | A- positive |
A2 stable | |||
| Stand-alone rating (financial strength) | bbb | baa2 | |||
| Short-term debt | A-2 | P-1 | |||
| Product ratings (unsecured issuances) | |||||
| Preferred senior unsecured debt | A- positive |
A2 stable | |||
| Non-preferred senior unsecured debt | BBB- | Baa2 | |||
| Subordinated debt (Tier 2) |
BB+ | Baa3 | |||
| Additional Tier 1 (AT1) | BB- | Ba2 | |||
| Product ratings (secured issuances) | |||||
| Mortgage Pfandbriefe | - | Aaa |
Public Sector Pfandbriefe - Aaa
S&P revised the outlook of Commerzbank's issuer credit rating (= preferred senior rating) to positive in November 2023
2) Includes corporate and institutional deposits
1) Includes parts of client business (i.e. counterparty for derivatives)
IAS 19: Development of pension obligations
Cumulated actuarial gains and losses (€m)
Cumulated OCI effect1 Pension obligations (gross) Discount rate in %2
Explanation
Following the strong decline of market yields towards yearend, the EUR IAS19 discount rate ended 30bp lower YoY. The present-valued pension obligations (DBO) therefore increased over the full year, producing a YtD liability loss in OCI. Valuation adjustments of DBO for higher actual and expected inflation induced an additional YtD liability loss in OCI
Pension assets' OCI increased by a similar amount YtD
In summary, liability loss and asset gain were balanced and produced a YtD net OCI gain of +€7m (after tax) on Group level
The discount rate is derived from an AA rated government bond basket, re-calibrated on corporate bond level, with an average duration of 14 years
The funding ratio (plan assets vs. pension obligations) is 109% across all Group plans
1) OCI effect driven by development of plan assets versus pension obligations, after tax, without minorities; cumulated since 1/1/2013 (new IAS19 standard) including possible restatements
2) Discount rate for German pension obligations (represents 97% of Group pension obligations)
FX impact on CET1 ratio
QoQ change in FX capital position
Explanation
Positive impact on CET1 ratio1 from increasing effect of the currency translation reserve as it overcompensates slightly higher FX driven credit risk RWA
Slight increase in credit risk RWA from FX effects mainly due to stronger PLN (+€809m) and RUB (+€29m), mostly offset by weaker USD (-€743m) and GBP (-€31m)
Higher currency translation reserve mainly due to increase from PLN (+€140m) and RUB (+€8m), partly compensated by USD (-€101m)
| FX rates3 | 09/23 | 12/23 |
|---|---|---|
| EUR / GBP | 0.865 | 0.869 |
| EUR / PLN | 4.628 | 4.340 |
| EUR / USD | 1.059 | 1.105 |
| EUR / RUB | 103.127 | 99.321 |
1) Based on current CET1 ratio
- 2) Change in credit risk RWA solely based on FX not on possible volume effects since 09/23
- 3) FX rates of main currencies only
Commerzbank Capital Return Policy
Clear capital return plan with prudent capital buffer
Capital return 2022-24
Capital return 2022-2024 based on increasing pay-out ratios leading to a capital return of ~€3bn1
2022: 30% (€0.4bn) 2023: 50% (€1.0bn) 2024: 70 + X%
2024 return consists of share buy-back2 applied for after H1 2024 results and dividend approved at AGM in 2025
Capital return 2025-27
2025-2027 capital return with a pay-out ratio well above 50% but not more than the net result1 ; pay-out is depending on economic development and business opportunities
Return consists of share buy-back2 and dividend approved at AGM of following year
Commerzbank aims for a steady development of the dividend with increasing results. Share buy-backs will be applied for remaining capital to be returned within the pay-out ratio
CET1 ratio
Reaching and maintaining prudent CET1 ratio of 13.5%
CET1 ratio of at least 250bp above MDA after distribution prerequisite for dividend payment
Additional prerequisite for a share buyback is a CET1 ratio of at least 13.5% after distribution2
Updated with FY 2023 figures
1) Pay-out based on net result after potential (fully discretionary) AT1 coupon payments
2) Subject to approval of ECB and German Finance Agency
Group equity composition
| Capital Q3 2023 EoP €bn |
Capital Q4 2023 EoP €bn |
Capital Q4 2023 Average €bn |
P&L Q4 2023 €m |
P&L FY 2023 €m |
Ratios Q4 2023 % |
Ratios FY 2023 % |
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Common equity tier 1 capital |
25.4 | 25.7 | 25.6 | 1 Operating Result |
542 | 3,421 | → Op. RoCET |
8.5% | 13.7% |
| DTA | 0.2 | 0.2 | |||||||
| Minority interests |
0.4 | 0.5 | |||||||
| Prudent Valuation |
0.4 | 0.4 | |||||||
| Defined Benefit pension fund assets |
0.8 | 0.6 | |||||||
| Capital Instruments that are given recognition in AT1 |
3.1 | 3.1 | |||||||
| Other regulatory adjustments |
0.4 | 0.2 | |||||||
| Tangible equity |
30.7 | 30.7 | 30.9 | 1 Operating Result |
542 | 3,421 | → Op. RoTE |
7.0% | 11.3% |
| Goodwill and other intangible assets (net of tax) |
1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | ||||||
| IFRS capital |
31.7 | 31.8 | 32.0 | 1 | |||||
| Subscribed capital |
1.2 | 1.2 | |||||||
| Capital reserve |
10.1 | 10.1 | |||||||
| Retained earnings |
17.0 | 16.8 | |||||||
| t/o consolidated P&L |
1.8 | 2.2 | |||||||
| t/o cumulated accrual for pay-out and potential AT1 coupons |
-0.9 | -1.2 | |||||||
| Currency translation reserve |
-0.3 | -0.3 | |||||||
| Revaluation reserve |
-0.3 | -0.1 | Consolidated P&L |
395 | 2,224 | ||||
| Cash flow hedges |
-0.1 | -0.1 | ./. for accrual potential AT1 coupon distribution current year |
-47 | -194 | ||||
| IFRS capital attributable to Commerzbank shareholders |
27.7 | 27.7 | 27.8 | 1 Consolidated P&L adjusted for RoE/RoTE |
348 | 2,031 | → Net RoE |
5.0% | 7.4% |
| Tangible equity attributable to Commerzbank shareholders |
26.6 | 26.6 | 26.8 | 1 | → Net RoTE |
5.2% | 7.7% | ||
| Additional equity components |
3.1 | 3.1 | 3.1 | ||||||
| Non-controlling interests |
1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
1) Includes consolidated P&L reduced by pay-out accrual and accrual for potential (fully discretionary) AT1 coupons
Commerzbank Group
| €m | Q1 2022 |
Q2 2022 |
Q3 2022 |
Q4 2022 |
FY 2022 |
Q1 2023 |
Q2 2023 |
Q3 2023 |
Q4 2023 |
FY 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total underlying revenues | 2,737 | 2,309 | 2,066 | 2,401 | 9,513 | 2,655 | 2,621 | 2,727 | 2,434 | 10,438 |
| Exceptional items | 56 | 111 | -181 | -38 | -52 | 13 | 9 | 27 | -25 | 23 |
| Total revenues | 2,793 | 2,420 | 1,886 | 2,363 | 9,461 | 2,668 | 2,629 | 2,755 | 2,409 | 10,461 |
| o/w Net interest income | 1,401 | 1,478 | 1,621 | 1,958 | 6,459 | 1,947 | 2,130 | 2,166 | 2,126 | 8,368 |
| o/w Net commission income | 970 | 894 | 849 | 806 | 3,519 | 915 | 841 | 831 | 798 | 3,386 |
| o/w Net fair value result | 353 | 69 | 172 | -143 | 451 | -72 | -17 | -67 | -202 | -359 |
| o/w Other income | 69 | -22 | -757 | -258 | -967 | -122 | -324 | -175 | -313 | -933 |
| o/w Dividend income | - | 8 | 13 | 11 | 32 | - | 4 | 9 | 14 | 26 |
| o/w Net income from hedge accounting | 13 | -55 | -39 | -33 | -113 | -3 | 10 | -8 | 40 | 39 |
| o/w Other financial result | 26 | -24 | -284 | -11 | -292 | 3 | 15 | 60 | -25 | 52 |
| o/w At equity result | - | 4 | 5 | 4 | 13 | 1 | 3 | - | 1 | 4 |
| o/w Other net income | 30 | 45 | -452 | -229 | -606 | -123 | -355 | -235 | -342 | -1,055 |
| Risk result | -464 | -106 | -84 | -222 | -876 | -68 | -208 | -91 | -252 | -618 |
| Operating expenses | 1,438 | 1,423 | 1,429 | 1,553 | 5,844 | 1,464 | 1,481 | 1,504 | 1,557 | 6,006 |
| Compulsory contributions | 347 | 144 | 91 | 59 | 642 | 260 | 52 | 45 | 59 | 415 |
| Operating result | 544 | 746 | 282 | 528 | 2,099 | 875 | 888 | 1,116 | 542 | 3,421 |
| Restructuring expenses | 15 | 25 | 14 | 40 | 94 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 18 |
| Pre-tax result Commerzbank Group | 529 | 721 | 267 | 488 | 2,005 | 871 | 885 | 1,109 | 537 | 3,403 |
| Taxes on income | 199 | 226 | 228 | -41 | 612 | 279 | 338 | 405 | 166 | 1,188 |
| Minority Interests | 32 | 25 | -155 | 57 | -42 | 12 | -19 | 20 | -24 | -10 |
| Consolidated Result attributable to Commerzbank shareholders and investors in additional equity components |
298 | 470 | 195 | 472 | 1,435 | 580 | 565 | 684 | 395 | 2,224 |
| Total Assets / Total Liabilities | 519,322 | 528,903 | 535,645 | 477,428 | 477,428 | 497,357 | 501,603 | 509,885 | 517,166 | 517,166 |
| Average capital employed | 23,755 | 23,988 | 24,102 | 24,112 | 24,003 | 24,048 | 24,729 | 25,365 | 25,642 | 24,945 |
| RWA credit risk (end of period) | 144,783 | 146,222 | 144,789 | 140,473 | 140,473 | 142,866 | 144,802 | 144,128 | 144,044 | 144,044 |
| RWA market risk (end of period) | 10,432 | 8,934 | 9,784 | 7,060 | 7,060 | 7,588 | 8,326 | 8,701 | 8,280 | 8,280 |
| RWA operational risk (end of period) | 19,891 | 19,891 | 19,891 | 21,199 | 21,199 | 21,074 | 20,849 | 20,797 | 22,790 | 22,790 |
| RWA (end of period) | 175,106 | 175,047 | 174,464 | 168,731 | 168,731 | 171,528 | 173,977 | 173,626 | 175,114 | 175,114 |
| Cost/income ratio (excl. compulsory contributions) (%) | 51.5% | 58.8% | 75.8% | 65.7% | 61.8% | 54.9% | 56.3% | 54.6% | 64.6% | 57.4% |
| Cost/income ratio (incl. compulsory contributions) (%) | 63.9% | 64.8% | 80.6% | 68.2% | 68.6% | 64.6% | 58.3% | 56.2% | 67.1% | 61.4% |
| Operating return on CET1 (RoCET) (%) | 9.2% | 12.4% | 4.7% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 14.6% | 14.4% | 17.6% | 8.5% | 13.7% |
| Operating return on tangible equity (%) | 7.6% | 10.3% | 3.8% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 11.8% | 11.8% | 14.6% | 7.0% | 11.3% |
| Return on equity of net result (%) | 3.9% | 6.5% | 2.2% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 5.0% | 7.4% |
| Net return on tangible equity (%) | 4.0% | 6.7% | 2.2% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 9.6% | 5.2% | 7.7% |
Private and Small-Business Customers
| €m | Q1 2022 |
Q2 2022 |
Q3 2022 |
Q4 2022 |
FY 2022 |
Q1 2023 |
Q2 2023 |
Q3 2023 |
Q4 2023 |
FY 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total underlying revenues | 1,474 | 1,519 | 1,066 | 1,479 | 5,539 | 1,495 | 1,284 | 1,399 | 1,183 | 5,361 |
| Exceptional items | -7 | 21 | -275 | -11 | -272 | 7 | -7 | -6 | 20 | 13 |
| Total revenues | 1,467 | 1,540 | 791 | 1,468 | 5,266 | 1,503 | 1,277 | 1,392 | 1,203 | 5,374 |
| o/w Net interest income | 808 | 985 | 1,023 | 1,125 | 3,941 | 1,091 | 1,119 | 1,157 | 1,018 | 4,385 |
| o/w Net commission income | 640 | 586 | 535 | 484 | 2,245 | 592 | 531 | 517 | 510 | 2,150 |
| o/w Net fair value result | 55 | -47 | -38 | -49 | -79 | -34 | -45 | -64 | -29 | -173 |
| o/w Other income | -36 | 15 | -728 | -92 | -841 | -147 | -328 | -218 | -296 | -988 |
| o/w Dividend income | - | 4 | 13 | 2 | 19 | - | 1 | 10 | 7 | 18 |
| o/w Net income from hedge accounting | - | 1 | -12 | 10 | -2 | - | -2 | 4 | -5 | -3 |
| o/w Other financial result | -5 | -5 | -270 | -14 | -294 | -12 | -5 | 1 | 29 | 14 |
| o/w At equity result | -1 | -1 | 3 | 4 | 5 | - | - | -1 | - | -1 |
| o/w Other net income | -30 | 16 | -462 | -93 | -569 | -134 | -321 | -232 | -328 | -1,016 |
| Risk result | -72 | -88 | -90 | -141 | -392 | -128 | -49 | -94 | -201 | -472 |
| Operating expenses | 821 | 829 | 821 | 944 | 3,414 | 846 | 880 | 866 | 983 | 3,575 |
| Compulsory contributions | 171 | 143 | 88 | 58 | 460 | 140 | 62 | 45 | 57 | 303 |
| Operating result | 403 | 481 | -208 | 325 | 1,001 | 389 | 286 | 388 | -39 | 1,024 |
| Total Assets | 168,321 | 168,145 | 169,140 | 170,749 | 170,749 | 172,230 | 173,963 | 176,152 | 179,698 | 179,698 |
| Total Liabilities | 203,039 | 204,431 | 206,154 | 210,303 | 210,303 | 208,616 | 211,608 | 215,713 | 228,254 | 228,254 |
| Average capital employed | 6,728 | 6,844 | 6,737 | 6,669 | 6,745 | 6,804 | 6,817 | 6,742 | 6,681 | 6,769 |
| RWA credit risk (end of period) | 42,157 | 41,586 | 40,862 | 39,699 | 39,699 | 39,857 | 40,042 | 39,300 | 39,703 | 39,703 |
| RWA market risk (end of period) | 908 | 802 | 850 | 575 | 575 | 598 | 683 | 691 | 777 | 777 |
| RWA operational risk (end of period) | 11,465 | 11,644 | 11,577 | 13,343 | 13,343 | 13,289 | 12,738 | 11,729 | 13,336 | 13,336 |
| RWA (end of period) | 54,529 | 54,033 | 53,289 | 53,616 | 53,616 | 53,744 | 53,463 | 51,720 | 53,816 | 53,816 |
| Cost/income ratio (excl. compulsory contributions) (%) | 55.9% | 53.8% | 103.8% | 64.3% | 64.8% | 56.3% | 69.0% | 62.2% | 81.8% | 66.5% |
| Cost/income ratio (incl. compulsory contributions) (%) | 67.6% | 63.1% | 114.9% | 68.2% | 73.6% | 65.6% | 73.8% | 65.4% | 86.5% | 72.2% |
| Operating return on CET1 (RoCET) (%) | 24.0% | 28.1% | -12.3% | 19.5% | 14.8% | 22.9% | 16.8% | 23.0% | -2.3% | 15.1% |
| Operating return on tangible equity (%) | 22.7% | 26.3% | -11.6% | 18.5% | 14.0% | 21.9% | 16.1% | 22.2% | -2.2% | 14.5% |
| Provisions for legal risks of CHF loans of mBank | -41 | -40 | -477 | -92 | -650 | -173 | -347 | -234 | -340 | -1,094 |
| Operating result ex legal provisions on CHF loans | 445 | 521 | 269 | 417 | 1,651 | 562 | 633 | 622 | 302 | 2,118 |
PSBC Germany | Part of segment Private and Small-Business Customers
| €m | Q1 2022 |
Q2 2022 |
Q3 2022 |
Q4 2022 |
FY 2022 |
Q1 2023 |
Q2 2023 |
Q3 2023 |
Q4 2023 |
FY 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total underlying revenues | 1,066 | 1,116 | 1,074 | 1,056 | 4,311 | 1,153 | 1,056 | 1,052 | 879 | 4,140 |
| Exceptional items | -6 | 22 | -5 | -4 | 7 | -7 | -6 | -5 | 17 | -2 |
| Total revenues | 1,059 | 1,138 | 1,069 | 1,052 | 4,318 | 1,147 | 1,050 | 1,046 | 896 | 4,139 |
| o/w Net interest income | 491 | 585 | 550 | 619 | 2,244 | 603 | 572 | 596 | 438 | 2,209 |
| o/w Net commission income | 539 | 495 | 451 | 418 | 1,904 | 511 | 451 | 436 | 438 | 1,837 |
| o/w Net fair value result | 22 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 37 | 8 | 2 | -8 | -28 | -26 |
| o/w Other income | 8 | 55 | 64 | 6 | 133 | 24 | 26 | 21 | 47 | 119 |
| o/w Dividend income | - | 3 | 13 | 2 | 18 | - | - | 10 | 6 | 16 |
| o/w Net income from hedge accounting | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| o/w Other financial result | - | - | - | 1 | 1 | - | - | - | 25 | 26 |
| o/w At equity result | -1 | -1 | 3 | 4 | 5 | - | - | -1 | - | -1 |
| o/w Other net income | 8 | 52 | 48 | - | 109 | 25 | 26 | 12 | 15 | 78 |
| Risk result | -17 | -46 | -52 | -102 | -218 | -91 | -9 | -39 | -92 | -231 |
| Operating expenses | 689 | 691 | 692 | 803 | 2,875 | 702 | 723 | 705 | 800 | 2,930 |
| Compulsory contributions | 84 | 23 | 4 | 22 | 134 | 64 | 18 | 4 | 15 | 100 |
| Operating result | 269 | 377 | 320 | 124 | 1,091 | 289 | 300 | 299 | -10 | 878 |
| Total Assets | 124,960 | 125,571 | 126,975 | 126,178 | 126,178 | 126,025 | 126,286 | 127,621 | 127,630 | 127,630 |
| Total Liabilities | 160,360 | 162,238 | 164,272 | 166,282 | 166,282 | 162,826 | 164,313 | 167,921 | 176,678 | 176,678 |
| Average capital employed | 3,920 | 4,049 | 4,018 | 4,015 | 3,995 | 4,118 | 4,089 | 3,988 | 3,927 | 4,032 |
| RWA credit risk (end of period) | 24,584 | 24,146 | 24,257 | 23,611 | 23,611 | 23,522 | 23,359 | 23,261 | 23,078 | 23,078 |
| RWA market risk (end of period) | 449 | 466 | 492 | 245 | 245 | 247 | 311 | 281 | 326 | 326 |
| RWA operational risk (end of period) | 7,361 | 7,455 | 7,382 | 8,685 | 8,685 | 8,676 | 8,125 | 7,294 | 8,115 | 8,115 |
| RWA (end of period) | 32,394 | 32,067 | 32,131 | 32,541 | 32,541 | 32,445 | 31,795 | 30,837 | 31,520 | 31,520 |
| Cost/income ratio (excl. compulsory contributions) (%) | 65.0% | 60.7% | 64.8% | 76.3% | 66.6% | 61.3% | 68.9% | 67.4% | 89.3% | 70.8% |
| Cost/income ratio (incl. compulsory contributions) (%) | 73.0% | 62.8% | 65.2% | 78.5% | 69.7% | 66.8% | 70.6% | 67.7% | 90.9% | 73.2% |
| Operating return on CET1 (RoCET) (%) | 27.5% | 37.3% | 31.9% | 12.4% | 27.3% | 28.1% | 29.3% | 30.0% | -1.1% | 21.8% |
| Operating return on tangible equity (%) | 26.9% | 36.4% | 31.2% | 12.3% | 26.8% | 27.7% | 28.8% | 29.3% | -1.0% | 21.3% |
mBank | Part of segment Private and Small-Business Customers
| €m | Q1 2022 |
Q2 2022 |
Q3 2022 |
Q4 2022 |
FY 2022 |
Q1 2023 |
Q2 2023 |
Q3 2023 |
Q4 2023 |
FY 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total underlying revenues | 409 | 402 | -7 | 423 | 1,227 | 342 | 228 | 347 | 304 | 1,221 |
| Exceptional items | -1 | -1 | -271 | -7 | -279 | 14 | -1 | -1 | 3 | 15 |
| Total revenues | 408 | 402 | -278 | 417 | 948 | 356 | 226 | 346 | 307 | 1,235 |
| o/w Net interest income | 317 | 400 | 473 | 506 | 1,697 | 488 | 547 | 561 | 580 | 2,176 |
| o/w Net commission income | 101 | 90 | 84 | 66 | 341 | 81 | 80 | 80 | 72 | 313 |
| o/w Net fair value result | 33 | -49 | -42 | -57 | -116 | -42 | -47 | -56 | -2 | -147 |
| o/w Other income | -44 | -40 | -792 | -98 | -974 | -171 | -354 | -239 | -343 | -1,107 |
| o/w Dividend income | - | 1 | - | - | 1 | - | 1 | - | 1 | 2 |
| o/w Net income from hedge accounting | - | 1 | -12 | 10 | -2 | - | -2 | 4 | -5 | -3 |
| o/w Other financial result | -5 | -5 | -270 | -15 | -295 | -12 | -5 | 1 | 4 | -12 |
| o/w At equity result | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| o/w Other net income | -38 | -36 | -510 | -93 | -678 | -159 | -347 | -245 | -343 | -1,094 |
| Risk result | -55 | -41 | -38 | -39 | -174 | -37 | -39 | -55 | -109 | -241 |
| Operating expenses | 132 | 138 | 129 | 141 | 539 | 143 | 157 | 161 | 184 | 645 |
| Compulsory contributions | 87 | 119 | 83 | 36 | 326 | 76 | 44 | 41 | 43 | 203 |
| Operating result | 134 | 103 | -528 | 201 | -90 | 100 | -14 | 89 | -28 | 146 |
| Total Assets | 43,361 | 42,574 | 42,164 | 44,570 | 44,570 | 46,204 | 47,677 | 48,531 | 52,068 | 52,068 |
| Total Liabilities | 42,679 | 42,193 | 41,882 | 44,021 | 44,021 | 45,790 | 47,294 | 47,792 | 51,576 | 51,576 |
| Average capital employed | 2,808 | 2,795 | 2,719 | 2,654 | 2,750 | 2,686 | 2,729 | 2,754 | 2,754 | 2,737 |
| RWA credit risk (end of period) | 17,572 | 17,441 | 16,604 | 16,087 | 16,087 | 16,334 | 16,683 | 16,039 | 16,625 | 16,625 |
| RWA market risk (end of period) | 459 | 336 | 358 | 331 | 331 | 351 | 372 | 410 | 451 | 451 |
| RWA operational risk (end of period) | 4,103 | 4,189 | 4,195 | 4,657 | 4,657 | 4,613 | 4,613 | 4,435 | 5,220 | 5,220 |
| RWA (end of period) | 22,134 | 21,965 | 21,158 | 21,075 | 21,075 | 21,299 | 21,668 | 20,883 | 22,296 | 22,296 |
| Cost/income ratio (excl. compulsory contributions) (%) | 32.3% | 34.3% | n/a | 33.8% | 56.8% | 40.3% | 69.4% | 46.5% | 59.8% | 52.2% |
| Cost/income ratio (incl. compulsory contributions) (%) | 53.6% | 64.0% | n/a | 42.5% | 91.2% | 61.6% | 88.7% | 58.4% | 73.7% | 68.7% |
| Operating return on CET1 (RoCET) (%) | 19.1% | 14.8% | -77.7% | 30.2% | -3.3% | 14.9% | -2.0% | 12.9% | -4.1% | 5.4% |
| Operating return on tangible equity (%) | 17.3% | 13.0% | -68.4% | 26.9% | -2.9% | 13.5% | -1.9% | 12.2% | -3.9% | 5.0% |
Corporate Clients
| €m | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | FY | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | FY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 2022 | 2022 | 2022 | 2022 | 2023 | 2023 | 2023 | 2023 | 2023 | |
| Total underlying revenues | 924 | 900 | 1,006 | 993 | 3,824 | 1,061 | 1,125 | 1,166 | 1,117 | 4,468 |
| Exceptional items | 2 | -18 | 15 | -31 | -32 | 18 | 1 | 5 | -11 | 13 |
| Total revenues | 926 | 882 | 1,021 | 963 | 3,792 | 1,079 | 1,126 | 1,171 | 1,106 | 4,481 |
| o/w Net interest income | 459 | 454 | 522 | 642 | 2,077 | 627 | 695 | 717 | 741 | 2,781 |
| o/w Net commission income | 341 | 318 | 332 | 330 | 1,320 | 334 | 320 | 326 | 300 | 1,281 |
| o/w Net fair value result | 115 | 103 | 168 | 49 | 436 | 132 | 128 | 129 | 75 | 463 |
| o/w Other income | 12 | 7 | -1 | -59 | -41 | -15 | -18 | -2 | -9 | -44 |
| o/w Dividend income | - | 3 | - | 2 | 5 | - | 2 | - | 2 | 4 |
| o/w Net income from hedge accounting | -9 | -7 | -2 | -1 | -18 | - | -1 | -1 | 1 | - |
| o/w Other financial result | -2 | -3 | -2 | -3 | -10 | -2 | -1 | 2 | -1 | -2 |
| o/w At equity result | 1 | 5 | 2 | - | 8 | 1 | 3 | 1 | - | 5 |
| o/w Other net income | 21 | 9 | 2 | -57 | -26 | -14 | -21 | -3 | -12 | -50 |
| Risk result | -286 | -52 | 13 | -121 | -446 | 54 | -169 | -4 | -36 | -155 |
| Operating expenses | 532 | 504 | 497 | 629 | 2,162 | 514 | 514 | 522 | 561 | 2,111 |
| Compulsory contributions | 115 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 120 | 78 | -6 | - | - | 73 |
| Operating result | -7 | 325 | 535 | 211 | 1,065 | 541 | 449 | 644 | 508 | 2,142 |
| Total Assets | 137,696 | 144,368 | 144,601 | 136,696 | 136,696 | 135,005 | 135,282 | 139,461 | 134,434 | 134,434 |
| Total Liabilities | 161,327 | 172,197 | 173,597 | 156,203 | 156,203 | 161,953 | 163,634 | 170,851 | 168,960 | 168,960 |
| Average capital employed | 10,135 | 9,967 | 9,959 | 10,182 | 10,072 | 10,393 | 10,512 | 10,508 | 10,521 | 10,481 |
| RWA credit risk (end of period) | 69,768 | 69,570 | 71,285 | 72,978 | 72,978 | 72,741 | 73,457 | 73,687 | 72,594 | 72,594 |
| RWA market risk (end of period) | 6,462 | 4,980 | 5,409 | 4,090 | 4,090 | 4,767 | 5,000 | 5,398 | 5,118 | 5,118 |
| RWA operational risk (end of period) | 4,311 | 4,244 | 4,299 | 4,534 | 4,534 | 4,474 | 4,271 | 4,168 | 5,122 | 5,122 |
| RWA (end of period) | 80,541 | 78,795 | 80,994 | 81,601 | 81,601 | 81,983 | 82,727 | 83,252 | 82,834 | 82,834 |
| Cost/income ratio (excl. compulsory contributions) (%) | 57.4% | 57.1% | 48.7% | 65.4% | 57.0% | 47.6% | 45.7% | 44.6% | 50.7% | 47.1% |
| Cost/income ratio (incl. compulsory contributions) (%) | 69.8% | 57.3% | 48.9% | 65.5% | 60.2% | 54.9% | 45.1% | 44.6% | 50.8% | 48.7% |
| Operating return on CET1 (RoCET) (%) | -0.3% | 13.0% | 21.5% | 8.3% | 10.6% | 20.8% | 17.1% | 24.5% | 19.3% | 20.4% |
| Operating return on tangible equity (%) | -0.2% | 12.1% | 19.8% | 7.6% | 9.8% | 19.1% | 15.7% | 22.7% | 17.8% | 18.8% |
Others & Consolidation
| €m | Q1 2022 |
Q2 2022 |
Q3 2022 |
Q4 2022 |
FY 2022 |
Q1 2023 |
Q2 2023 |
Q3 2023 |
Q4 2023 |
FY 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total underlying revenues | 338 | -110 | -6 | -72 | 150 | 99 | 212 | 163 | 135 | 609 |
| Exceptional items | 61 | 108 | 80 | 4 | 253 | -13 | 15 | 29 | -34 | -2 |
| Total revenues | 399 | -2 | 73 | -68 | 403 | 86 | 227 | 192 | 101 | 606 |
| o/w Net interest income | 134 | 39 | 77 | 191 | 441 | 229 | 315 | 291 | 367 | 1,202 |
| o/w Net commission income | -11 | -9 | -17 | -9 | -46 | -11 | -10 | -12 | -11 | -45 |
| o/w Net fair value result | 183 | 13 | 41 | -144 | 93 | -170 | -100 | -132 | -248 | -650 |
| o/w Other income | 93 | -44 | -28 | -107 | -85 | 39 | 22 | 45 | -7 | 99 |
| o/w Dividend income | -1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 7 | -1 | - | -1 | 5 | 4 |
| o/w Net income from hedge accounting | 22 | -48 | -25 | -41 | -93 | -2 | 13 | -11 | 44 | 43 |
| o/w Other financial result | 33 | -16 | -12 | 6 | 11 | 16 | 21 | 57 | -53 | 41 |
| o/w At equity result | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| o/w Other net income | 39 | 20 | 8 | -79 | -11 | 26 | -12 | - | -3 | 11 |
| Risk result | -106 | 34 | -6 | 40 | -38 | 6 | 9 | 7 | -15 | 8 |
| Operating expenses | 86 | 91 | 112 | -20 | 268 | 104 | 87 | 116 | 13 | 320 |
| Compulsory contributions | 61 | 1 | 1 | - | 63 | 42 | -4 | - | 1 | 40 |
| Operating result | 147 | -60 | -46 | -8 | 34 | -54 | 153 | 84 | 72 | 255 |
| Restructuring expenses | 15 | 25 | 14 | 40 | 94 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 18 |
| Pre-tax result | 132 | -84 | -60 | -48 | -60 | -59 | 150 | 77 | 68 | 236 |
| Total Assets | 213,305 | 216,390 | 221,905 | 169,983 | 169,983 | 190,122 | 192,359 | 194,272 | 203,035 | 203,035 |
| Total Liabilities | 154,956 | 152,274 | 155,895 | 110,923 | 110,923 | 126,788 | 126,361 | 123,321 | 119,952 | 119,952 |
| Average capital employed | 6,892 | 7,177 | 7,406 | 7,262 | 7,186 | 6,851 | 7,400 | 8,115 | 8,439 | 7,695 |
| RWA credit risk (end of period) | 32,858 | 35,066 | 32,642 | 27,797 | 27,797 | 30,268 | 31,303 | 31,141 | 31,747 | 31,747 |
| RWA market risk (end of period) | 3,063 | 3,152 | 3,525 | 2,394 | 2,394 | 2,223 | 2,643 | 2,612 | 2,386 | 2,386 |
| RWA operational risk (end of period) | 4,115 | 4,002 | 4,014 | 3,322 | 3,322 | 3,311 | 3,840 | 4,900 | 4,331 | 4,331 |
| RWA (end of period) | 40,036 | 42,220 | 40,181 | 33,513 | 33,513 | 35,802 | 37,787 | 38,653 | 38,464 | 38,464 |
Commerzbank Group | Exceptional revenue items
| €m | Q1 2022 |
Q2 2022 |
Q3 2022 |
Q4 2022 |
FY 2022 |
Q1 2023 |
Q2 2023 |
Q3 2023 |
Q4 2023 |
FY 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exceptional Revenue Items | 56 | 111 | -181 | -38 | -52 | 13 | 9 | 27 | -25 | 23 |
| o/w Net interest income | 39 | 37 | 4 | 89 | 169 | -7 | -6 | -5 | -5 | -23 |
| o/w Net fair value result | 17 | 48 | 84 | -118 | 31 | 9 | 17 | 33 | -45 | 13 |
| o/w Other income | - | 27 | -270 | -9 | -252 | 11 | -2 | - | 25 | 34 |
| o/w FVA, CVA / DVA, AT1 FX effect (NII, NCI, NFVR) | 17 | 48 | 84 | -118 | 31 | 9 | 17 | 33 | -45 | 13 |
| PSBC Germany | -6 | 22 | -5 | -4 | 7 | -7 | -6 | -5 | 17 | -2 |
| o/w Net interest income | -6 | -5 | -5 | -4 | -20 | -7 | -6 | -5 | -5 | -23 |
| o/w Net fair value result | - | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| o/w Other income | - | 27 | - | - | 27 | - | - | - | 21 | 21 |
| o/w FVA, CVA / DVA (NII, NFVR) | - | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| mBank | -1 | -1 | -271 | -7 | -279 | 14 | -1 | -1 | 3 | 15 |
| o/w Net fair value result | -1 | -1 | -1 | 2 | -1 | 3 | 1 | -1 | -1 | 3 |
| o/w Other income | - | - | -270 | -9 | -278 | 11 | -2 | - | 4 | 12 |
| o/w FVA, CVA / DVA (NII, NFVR) | -1 | -1 | -1 | 2 | -1 | 3 | 1 | -1 | -1 | 3 |
| CC | 2 | -18 | 15 | -31 | -32 | 18 | 1 | 5 | -11 | 13 |
| o/w Net fair value result | 2 | -18 | 15 | -31 | -32 | 18 | 1 | 5 | -11 | 13 |
| o/w FVA, CVA / DVA (NII, NFVR) | 2 | -18 | 15 | -31 | -32 | 18 | 1 | 5 | -11 | 13 |
| O&C | 61 | 108 | 80 | 4 | 253 | -13 | 15 | 29 | -34 | -2 |
| o/w Net interest income | 45 | 42 | 9 | 93 | 189 | - | - | - | - | - |
| o/w Net fair value result | 16 | 66 | 70 | -89 | 63 | -13 | 15 | 29 | -34 | -2 |
| o/w FVA, CVA / DVA, AT1 FX effect (NII, NCI, NFVR) | 16 | 66 | 70 | -89 | 63 | -13 | 15 | 29 | -34 | -2 |
Description of Exceptional Revenue Items
| 2022 | €m | 2022 | €m | 2023 | €m |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 PPA Consumer Finance (PSBC) | -6 | Q4 TLTRO benefit (O&C) | 93 | Q1 PPA Consumer Finance (PSBC) | -7 |
| Q1 TLTRO benefit (O&C) | 45 | Q4 Credit holidays in Poland (PSBC) | -9 | Q1 Credit holidays in Poland (PSBC) | 11 |
| Q2 PPA Consumer Finance (PSBC) | -5 | Q2 PPA Consumer Finance (PSBC) | -6 | ||
| Q2 TLTRO benefit (O&C) | 42 | Q2 Credit holidays in Poland (PSBC) | -2 | ||
| Q2 Prov. re judgement on pricing of accounts (PSBC) | 27 | Q3 PPA Consumer Finance (PSBC) | -5 | ||
| Q3 PPA Consumer Finance (PSBC) | -5 | Q4 PPA Consumer Finance (PSBC) | -5 | ||
| Q3 TLTRO benefit (O&C) | 9 | Q4 Credit holidays in Poland (PSBC) | 4 | ||
| Q3 Credit holidays in Poland (PSBC) | -270 | Q4 Prov. re judgement on pricing of accounts (PSBC) | 21 | ||
| Q4 PPA Consumer Finance (PSBC) | -4 |
Glossary – Key ratios
| Key Ratio |
Abbreviation | Calculated for |
Numerator | Denominator | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Group | Private and Small Business Customers and Corporate Clients |
Others & Consolidation | |||||||
| Cost/income ratio (excl. compulsory contributions) (%) |
CIR (excl. compulsory contributions) (%) |
Group as well as segments PSBC and CC |
Operating expenses | Total revenues | Total revenues | n/a | |||
| Cost/income ratio (incl. compulsory contributions) (%) |
CIR (incl. compulsory contributions) (%) |
Group as well as segments PSBC and CC |
Operating expenses and compulsory contributions |
Total revenues | Total revenues | n/a | |||
| Operating return on CET1 (%) | Op. RoCET (%) | Group and segments (excl. O&C) |
Operating profit | Average CET1¹ | 12.7% ² of the average RWAs (YTD: PSBC Germany €31,7bn, mBank €21,6bn, CC €82,5bn) |
n/a (note: O&C contains the reconciliation to Group CET1) |
|||
| Operating return on tangible equity (%) | Op. RoTE (%) | Group and segments (excl. O&C) |
Operating profit | Average IFRS capital after deduction of intangible assets ¹ |
12.7% ² of the average RWAs plus average regulatory capital deductions (excluding intangible assets) (YTD: PSBC Germany €0,1bn, mBank €0,2bn, CC €0,9bn) |
n/a (note: O&C contains the reconciliation to Group tangible equity) |
|||
| Return on equity of net result (%) | Net RoE (%) | Group | Consolidated Result attributable to Commerzbank shareholders and investors in additional equity components after pay-out accrual (if applicable) and after deduction of potential (fully discretionary) AT1 coupon |
Average IFRS capital without non controlling interests and without additional equity components ¹ |
n/a | n/a | |||
| Net return on tangible equity (%) | Net RoTE (%) | Group | Consolidated Result attributable to Commerzbank shareholders and investors in additional equity components after pay-out accrual (if applicable) and after deduction of potential (fully discretionary) AT1 coupon |
Average IFRS capital without non controlling interests and without additional equity components after deduction of intangible assets (net of tax) ¹ |
n/a | n/a | |||
| Non-Performing Exposure ratio (%) | NPE ratio (%) | Group | Non-performing exposures | Total exposures according to EBA Risk Dashboard |
n/a | n/a | |||
| Cost of Risk (bps) | CoR (bps) | Group | Risk Result | Exposure at Default | n/a | n/a | |||
| Cost of Risk on Loans (bps) | CoRL (bps) | Group | Risk Result | Loans and Advances [annual report note (25)] |
n/a | n/a | |||
| Key Parameter |
Calculated for |
Calculation | |||||||
| Total underlying revenues | Group and segments | Total revenues excluding exceptional revenue items |
Underlying Operating Performance Group and segments Operating result excluding exceptional revenue items and compulsory contributions
1) Reduced by potential pay-out accrual and potential (fully discretionary) AT1 coupon
2) Charge rate reflects current regulatory and market standard
For more information, please contact our IR team
commerzbank.com
mail: [email protected] / internet: Commerzbank AG – Investor Relations
Disclaimer
This presentation contains forward-looking statements. Forwardlooking statements are statements that are not historical facts; they include, inter alia, statements about Commerzbank's beliefs and expectations and the assumptions underlying them. These statements are based on plans, estimates, projections and targets as they are currently available to the management of Commerzbank. Forward-looking statements therefore speak only as of the date they are made, and Commerzbank undertakes no obligation to update any of them in light of new information or future events. By their very nature, forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties. A number of important factors could therefore cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in any forward-looking statement. Such factors include, among others, the conditions in the financial markets in Germany, in Europe, in the United States and elsewhere from which Commerzbank derives a substantial portion of its revenues and in which it hold a substantial portion of its assets, the development of asset prices and market volatility, potential defaults of borrowers or trading counterparties, the implementation of its strategic initiatives and the reliability of its risk management policies.
In addition, this presentation contains financial and other information which has been derived from publicly available information disclosed by persons other than Commerzbank ("external data"). In particular, external data has been derived from industry and customer-related data and other calculations taken or derived from industry reports published by third parties, market research reports and commercial publications. Commercial publications generally state that the information they contain has originated from sources assumed to be reliable, but that the accuracy and completeness of such information is not guaranteed and that the calculations contained therein are based on a series of assumptions. The external data has not been independently verified by Commerzbank. Therefore, Commerzbank cannot assume any responsibility for the accuracy of the external data taken or derived from public sources.
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