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CMT — Investor Presentation 2022
Mar 29, 2022
52166_rns_2022-03-29_62f1a0c0-0150-48d7-98b2-8524a323866f.pdf
Investor Presentation
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Stock Code:2612 TT
Investor Presentation
By: Ban-Jen Tarng Spokesperson 30[th] March 2022
Summar of Presentation y
Capesize Market Outlook
-
Dry Bulk Shipping Market Trends
-
The Company Overview
-
Appendices
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1
Mar/2022 Investor Presentation
Outlook
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Ca esize Market Outlook p
Freight Rates Under Pressure but Outlook is Promising
-
5TC average reached lowest level since 2020 at US$ 5,826 in January; spot rate averaged US$ 14,793 in Q1 2022
-
Iron ore price averaged US$ 140/ton in Q1 2022 amid expectations of rising demand and increased steel production in PRC
War Between Russia and Ukraine Reshaped Commodity Market
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-
The commodity prices skyrocketed since the invasion and seaborne dry bulk trades are also being interrupted
-
Market continues to monitor the latest development closely as Black Sea is a key region for global oil and dry bulk exports
Net Fleet Growth Eases in 2022
- 14 new ships (100k-400k dwt) joined the fleet so far in 2022, while demolition is set to continue in coming years
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- Capesize net fleet growth is 0.55% between January and March 2022
Short-term Outlook
-
PRC steel production has been contracted in last two quarters but favorable trade and fiscal policies are expected to stimulate the economy
-
Despite tension in the Black Sea and the pandemic, FFA rates are still in contango which should provide support to period rates in near term
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Mar/2022 Investor Presentation
Focal Points of Q2 2022
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War Between Russia and Ukraine
Russia’s invasion to Ukraine has escalated tension in the region and triggered excessive movement in commodity prices and disruption within the supply chain
Global Demand for Coal
International coal prices soared after Russia’s military invasion therefore in order to expand its sources of raw materials, Europe has turned to other countries such as Australia and Indonesia to import coal
PRC Covid-19 Fallout
The government has set target to cap steel production dampening demand for iron ore but market should stabilize post Winter Olympics except new waves of Omicron may restrict production and transportation of steel
Chain Effect of All Ship Types
Due to more long haul shipments and PRC’s demand for raw material, market anticipates tighter tonnage balance in all dry bulk ship sectors
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Mar/2022 Investor Presentation
PRC Ke Econom Indicators y y
-
PRC’s gross domestic product in 2021 reached about 17.7 trillion U.S. dollars or equivalent to growth of 8.1% y-o-y. The full year target for 2022 is around 5.5%
-
PRC’s crude steel production between January and February reached 157 million tons, down by 10.0% y-o-y; the country exported about 8 million tons of steel products between January and February, down by 18.8% y-o-y
-
China Steel Price Index (CSPI) soared by 5.9% in end-February to 137.56 points
-
The country imported 181 million tons of iron ore between January and February, similar level to the same period last year, while coal imports reached 35 million tons, down by about 14.0% y-o-y
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Mar/2022 Investor Presentation
PRC Shifts Prime Focus to GDP Growth
-
PRC has set the tone to gradually reach carbon emission peak by 2030 instead of attain the emission target at once
-
The country is facing pressure to grow its economy hence it will relax its carbon peaking initiative for all sectors including steel production
-
Market expects PRC to ease fiscal policies including reduction of interest rate and banks’ reserve ratio in order to avoid an economic slowdown
-
Major cities’ housing prices have stabilized showing better prospects in real estate and demand for steel
-
China targets GDP growth of 5.5%likely through monetary stimulus and allocation of central expenditures for major infrastructure projects
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Mar/2022 Investor Presentation
Russia & Ukraine Conflicts Affecting Global Seaborne Trades
| * | Top Russian Coal Export Flows | Top Russian Coal Export Flows | Top Russian Coal Export Flows | Top Russian Coal Export Flows | Top Russian Coal Export Flows | Top Russian Coal Export Flows | Top Russian Coal Export Flows | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | mt | % of Russian Exports |
Russian % of Imports |
|||||||||
| 1 | China | 38.9 | 23% | 14% | ||||||||
| 2 | EU27+UK | 33.9 | 20% | 39% | ||||||||
| 3 | Japan | 21.8 | 13% | 12% | ||||||||
| 4 | Korea | 20.0 | 12% | 17% | ||||||||
| 5 | Turkey | 13.3 | 8% | 16% | ||||||||
| 45% | ||||||||||||
| 40% | ||||||||||||
| 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% |
China | EU27+UK | Japan Korea |
Turkey | ||||||||
| % | of Russian Exports Russian % of |
Imports |
| Cargo Group |
Cargo Type | Cargo Type | Russian Exports, mt |
Russian Exports, % global |
Russian Exports, % global |
Russian Exports, % global |
Russian Exports, % global |
Ukrainian Exports, mt |
Ukrainian Exports, % global |
Ukrainian Exports, % global |
Ukrainian Exports, % global |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iron Ore | 6 | 0.4% | 17 | 1.1% | ||||||||
| Coal * |
166 | 13.4% | - | - | ||||||||
| Dry Bulk | Grain | 36 | 6.9% | 49 | 9.5% | |||||||
| Minor | Bulk | 111 | 5.3% | 25 | 1.2% | |||||||
| Total Dry Bulk | 319 | 5.9% | 92 | 1.7% | ||||||||
| Crude | Oil | 158 | 8.6% | 0.1 | 0.0% | |||||||
| Oil | Oil Products | 110 | 11.0% | <0.05 | 0.0% | |||||||
| Total Oil | 269 | 9.5% | 0.1 | 0.0% | ||||||||
| Chemicals | Chemicals | 9 | 2.6% | 5 | 1.5% | |||||||
| LNG | 29 | 7.7% | - | - | ||||||||
| Gas | LPG | 0.4 | 0.4% | 0.01 | 0.01% | |||||||
| Ammonia | 3 | 18.3% | 0.5 | 3.5% |
Source: Clarksons Platou
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Mar/2022 Investor Presentation 7
Shi in Market Outlook - Demand pp g
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Iron Ore
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Coal
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Clarksons Platou forecasts Chinese iron ore imports to drop by 1% in 2022 while
Brazilian export volume is expected to raise by 3% and Australian export volume
increases by 1%; global iron ore demand is projected to grow by 1% in 2022
Clarksons Platou forecasts Chinese coal imports to drop by 12% in 2022 while Australian export volume is expected to raise by 4% and Indonesian export volume drop by 1%; global coal demand is projected to grow by 2% in 2022
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Mar/2022 Investor Presentation
Shi in Market Outlook - Su l pp g pp y
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Newbuildings
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Ship Scrapping
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According to IHS Markit, total 88 newbuildings (100-400k DWT) were delivered in 2021 with fleet net growth at 4%; 66 large bulkers (100-400k dwt) are expected to be delivered in 2022
Demolition quantity of large bulkers (100-400k DWT) reached 14 in 2021 while more vintage bulkers are to be recycled this year - 25 units are expected to be scrapped in 2022
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Mar/2022 Investor Presentation
Dry Bulk Shipping Market Trends
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BDI 2020-2022
Baltic Exchange Dry Index
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BDI Avg.
7/Oct/2021
Year 2020 1,066 BDI: 5,650
4950 Year 2021 2,943
Jan - Mar 2022 2,016
14/Mar/2022
3950 26/Jan/2022 BDI: 2,727
BDI: 1,296
10/Feb/2021 6/Oct/2020
2950 BDI: 1,303 BDI: 2,097
1950
14/May/2020
BDI: 393
950
-50
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2020 BDI 2021 BDI 2022 BDI
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Source: Clarksons Platou
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Mar/2022 Investor Presentation 11
BCI 2020-2022
Baltic Exchange Capesize Index
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11200 5TC Avg. BCI Avg.
Year 2020 13,070 1.450 7/Oct/2021
Year 2021 33,333 4,019 BCI: 10,485
9200
Jan - Mar 2022 14,793 1,784
15/Mar/2022
3/Jul/2020
7200 BCI: 2,823
26/Jan/2022 BCI: 4,440
BCI:702
9/Mar/2020
5200 12/Feb/2021 BCI: -372
BCI:1,242
3200
1200
-800
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2020 BCI 2021 BCI 2022 BCI
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Source: Clarksons Platou
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Mar/2022 Investor Presentation 12
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Spot TCE (US$)
90,000
80,000
Supra/Ultramax 10TC (58K)
70,000
2022/3/25 - US$33,217
60,000
50,000 Handysize 7TC (38K)
2022/3/25 - US$32,082
40,000
30,000 Kamsarmax 5TC (82K)
2022/3/25 - US$30,713
20,000
10,000
Capesize 5TC (180K)
2022/3/25 - US$15,648
0
Jan-20 Mar-20 May-20 Jul-20 Sep-20 Nov-20 Jan-21 Mar-21 May-21 Jul-21 Sep-21 Nov-21 Jan-22 Mar-22
Capesize 5TC (180K) Kamsarmax 5TC (82K) Supra/Ultramax 10TC (58K) Handysize 7TC (38K)
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Source: Clarksons Platou
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13
Mar/2022 Investor Presentation
Global Economy Recovers from 2020
-
IMF projects global GDP to grow by 4.4% in 2022
-
Clarksons Platou forecasts dry bulk seaborne trade to increase by 1.9% in 2022
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14
12.5
12
10
8
6.3
6 5.4 5.8 5.8 5.6 5.9
4.3 4.4
3.8 4 3.8
4 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.5
2.7 2.8
1.9
2 1.4
0.5
0.2
0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022(f)
-2
-1.6
-4 -3.1
Global GDP Growth (%) Dry Bulk Trade Growth (%)
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Source: IMF & Clarksons Platou
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Mar/2022 Investor Presentation 14
Dry Bulk Seaborne Trade Expects to Grow by 1.9%
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Million Tons YOY
Cape Focus
Iron Ore 1,530 0.9%
Coal 1,253 1.8%
Bauxite 150 5.6%
Capesize focus cargoes total 2,933 1.5%
Grain 542 3.6%
Forest Products 397 2.8%
Steel Products 401 2.3%
Fertilizer 191 1.1%
Agribulks 178 0.0%
Cement 151 0.0%
Scrap 101 3.1%
Petroleum Coke 70 1.4%
Sugar 63 -1.6%
Salt 53 0.0%
Nickel Ore 58 3.6%
Manganese Ore 48 4.3%
Others 281 4.1%
2022(E) Total Dry Bulk 5,467 1.9%
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Source: Clarksons Platou
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Mar/2022 Investor Presentation
Dry Bulk Seaborne Trade vs Fleet Growth
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Source: Arrow
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Mar/2022 Investor Presentation 16
orts Global Iron Ore/Coal Ex p
Clarksons Platou forecasts global iron ore exports to increase by 1% while coal exports to increase by 2% in 2022
Iron Ore
Coal
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Million Tons
1600 1502 1517 1530
1456
1400
1200
1000 867 874 884
836
800
600
348 340 358 369
400
200
0
2019 2020 2021 2022(f)
Brazil Australia Total
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Million Tons
1600
1400 1284
1238 1253
1165
1200
1000
800
600
383 457 360 404 359 433 375 428
400
200
0
2019 2020 2021 2022(f)
Australia Indonesia Total
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Source: Clarksons Platou
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Mar/2022 Investor Presentation
Vale’s Iron Ore Production Outlook
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Source: Vale
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Mar/2022 Investor Presentation 18
Iron Ore Price Trend
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240
220 May 2021
February 2011 US$ 233.10/MT
200 US$ 193.00/MT
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
December 2015 November 2021
20 US$ 37.00/MT US$ 87.20/MT
62% FE CFR China, US$/MT
0
Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21 Jan-22
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Source: SSY
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Mar/2022 Investor Presentation 19
PRC Crude Steel Price
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250 7500
200 6700
150 5900
100 5100
50 4300
0 3500
1-Jan-2021 1-Mar-2021 1-May-2021 1-Jul-2021 1-Sep-2021 1-Nov-2021 1-Jan-2022 1-Mar-2022
62% FE CFR China, US$/mt Hot Roll Steel Plate (SPHC), RMB/mt
62% FE CFR China, US$/mt
Hot Roll Steel Plate (SPHC), RMB/mt
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Source: SSY & MarcoMicro
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Mar/2022 Investor Presentation 20
Global Steel Production
PRC’s y-o-y growth rate in 2021: -3.0%; Full year y-o-y projection for 2022: +0.0%
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Source: World Steel Association
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21
Mar/2022 Investor Presentation
Global Coal Price
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Source: MarcoMicro
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22
Mar/2022 Investor Presentation
PRC Commodit Im orts y p
-
PRC’s demand for iron ore is estimated to decrease by 1% in 2022 to 1.09 billion tons
-
PRC’s demand for coal imports is projected to decrease by 12% in 2022 to 250 million tons
Iron Ore
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Million Tons
1400 78%
1200 76%
1000 74%
800 72%
600 70%
400 68%
200 66%
0 64%
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022(f)
Chinese Iron Ore Import % of global imports
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Coal
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Million Tons
300 25%
250
20%
%
200
15%
150
10%
100
5%
50
0 0%
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022(f)
Chinese Coal Import % of global imports
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Source: Clarksons Platou
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Mar/2022 Investor Presentation 23
PRC Iron Ore Im orts p
| Million | Tons | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 120 | ||||||||||||
| 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 |
||||||||||||
| Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | |
| 2020 | 2021 |
Source: Thurlestone Research
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Mar/2022 Investor Presentation
Iron Ore Stockpiles at PRC Ports
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165
152
139
126
113
100
Million tonnes
Jan 19 Mar 19 May 19 Jul 19 Sep 19 Nov 19 Jan 20 Mar 20 May 20 Jul 20 Sep 20 Nov 20 Jan 21 Mar 21 May 21 Jul 21 Sep 21 Nov 21
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Source: Drewry Maritime Research
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Mar/2022 Investor Presentation 25
PRC Coal Im orts p
Million Tons
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350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Australia Indonesia Russia Mongolia Philippines All origins
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2019 2020 2021
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Source: PRC Customs
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Mar/2022 Investor Presentation
Bulker Newbuilding Orders are Shrinking
Dry Bulk New Ship Ordering
Capesize Orderbook
% of Fleet (DWT)
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140 No. 100% 91%
120
80%
100 62%
60%
80
37%
60 40%
40 [24%]
20% 17% [21%] 18% 13% [14%] [16%] [14%]
20 8% 7% 7%
0 0%
Delivered in Remaining 2022 2023 2024 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Jan
Q1 2022 2022 2022
Capesize Ordering (100,000 + dwt) Total Bulk Fleet Ordering
JAN 2022
ORDERBOOK AS %
AVERAGE AGE OVER 20 YEARS OLD SCRAPPING AS %
OF EXISTING FLEET
OF EXISTING FLEET
Handysize
5% 12.4 13% 0.00%
(10,000 - 40,000 dwt)
Handymax (incl. Supramax & Ultramax)
6% 10.7 9% 0.00%
(40,000 - 65,000 dwt)
Panamax (incl, Kamsarmax)
8% 10.9 12% 0.00%
(65,000 - 100,000 dwt)
Capesize
7% 9.2 2% 0.00%
(100,000 + dwt)
Total Dry Bulk > 10,000 dwt
7% 11.0 7% 0.00%
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Source: Clarksons Platou
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Mar/2022 Investor Presentation
Ca esize Fleet Growth Decelerates p
Capesize Supply Development
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m. DWT
30 6.00%
25 19.00 5.00%
4.32%
20 4.00%
15 3.00%
10 2.00%
2.93
5 1.00%
0.55%
0 0.00%
0.85
-5 -1.00%
3.40
-10 -2.00%
-15 -3.00%
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Q1 2022
Scrapping New Deliveries Net Fleet Growth
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Source: Clarksons Platou
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Mar/2022 Investor Presentation
Newbuildin /2[nd] Hand Sale Prices g
| TYPE | TYPE | PRICE (IN US$ MILLION) | PRICE (IN US$ MILLION) | PRICE (IN US$ MILLION) | PRICE (IN US$ MILLION) | PRICE (IN US$ MILLION) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YEAR | 2020 | 2021 | MAR 2022 | |||
| 208,000 DWT | NB | 52.0 | 67.0 | 29% | 67.5 | 1% |
| 180,000 DWT | NB | 46.5 | 60.5 | 30% | 61.0 | 1% |
| 180,000 DWT (ECO) | 5-YR | 35.5 | 47.0 | 32% | 47.0 | 0% |
| 180,000 DWT | 10-YR | 19.5 | 33.0 | 69% | 31.5 | -5% |
| 176,000 DWT | 15-YR | 12.8 | 21.0 | 64% | 20.5 | -2% |
Source: Clarksons Platou & Internal Assessment
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Mar/2022 Investor Presentation
The Company Overview
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Com an Profile p y
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Shipping :
CMT owns and manages a fleet of 10 capesize bulkers to offer dedicated services to customers for transportation of dry bulk commodities around the globe
Trucking :
Associated Transport Inc. is one of Taiwan’s largest intermodal container trucking operators that provides container drayage and related services island-wide
Terminals :
CMT Logistics Co., Ltd. operates two containers terminals in northern Taiwan with great access the country’s major ports to offer import/export express services to customers
Air & Tourism :
CMT Air Cargo Department is the General Sales Agent (GSA) of Saudi Arabian Airlines in Taiwan
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Mar/2022 Investor Presentation
CMT Ca esize Fleet p
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----- Start of picture text -----
China Peace China Progress China Pride China Triumph China Prosperity China Pioneer China Fortune
中華和平輪 中華富進輪 中華榮耀輪 中華光輝輪 中華鴻運輪 中華先鋒輪 中華偉運輪
174,413 DWT 174,322 DWT 177,856 DWT 203,028 DWT 203,028 DWT 206,079 DWT 206,061 DWT
2005 2006 2009 2011 2012 2012 2013
2024 2024 2023 2023 2017 2017 2016
China Honour China Enterprise China Harmony
Newbuilding Newbuilding Newbuilding Newbuilding
中華名望輪 中華偉業輪 中華和諧輪
210,000 DWT 210,000 DWT 210,000 DWT 210,000 DWT
179,562 DWT 207,986 DWT 179,505 DWT
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Mar/2022 Investor Presentation
Entities Revenue Ratio for 2021
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50%
Shipping
Trucking and
49%
Terminals
Agency and
1%
Travel
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33
Mar/2022 Investor Presentation
2017-2021 Financial Hi hli hts g g
Expressed in millions of New Taiwan Dollars
| Year | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3,218 | 3,820 | 3,763 | 3,132 | 3,554 |
| Net Profit/(Loss) | 98 | 514 | 324 | 320 | 1,031 |
| EPS | 0.50 | 2.60 | 1.64 | 1.67 | 5.27 |
| Cash and cash equivalents |
2,940 | 3,345 |
3,288 |
3,221 |
3,057 |
| Total liabilities | 10,652 | 10,237 | 10,022 | 9,735 | 8,650 |
| Total equity | 9,427 | 10,187 | 9,934 | 9,750 | 10,428 |
| ROE % | 1.0% | 5.2% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 10.3% |
| ROA % | 1.3% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 5.8% |
| Liability % | 53% | 50% | 50% | 50% | 45% |
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Mar/2022 Investor Presentation
Dividends Distribution
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Year 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Cash dividends/ Capital
1.00 1.50 1.30 2.50 0.50 0.50 1.60 0.80 1.60 2.68
Reduction (NT$)
EPS (NT$) 2.23 1.55 1.30 1.30 0.21 0.50 2.60 1.64 1.67 5.27
3.50 250%
238%
3.00 192%
200%
2.50
2.68
2.30
150%
2.00
97% 100%
1.50 1.60
1.60 96% 100%
45% 1.50 100%
1.30
1.00
1.00 62%
51% 50%
49%
0.50 0.80
0.50 0.50
0.00 0.20 0%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Cash Dividend Capital Reduction Dividend Payout Ratio
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*Cash dividend NT$ 0.20 plus capital reduction NT$2.30 = NT$2.50
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Mar/2022 Investor Presentation
Appendix 1:Condensed Balance Sheet
| Expressed in millions of New Taiwan Dollars | Expressed in millions of New Taiwan Dollars | |
|---|---|---|
| Assets | Dec 31, 2021 | Dec 31, 2020 |
| Current assets | 4,409 | 5,152 |
| Property, plant and equipment | 12,261 | 12,108 |
| Intangible assets | 8 | 10 |
| Other non current assets | 2,400 | 2,273 |
| Total assets | 19,078 | 19,543 |
| Liabilities and Equity | ||
| Current liabilities | 3,221 | 3,506 |
| Non Current liabilities | 5,429 | 6,229 |
| Total liabilities | 8,650 | 9,735 |
| Equity attributable to owners of parent | ||
| Common stock | 1,975 | 1,975 |
| Capital surplus | 53 | 53 |
| Retained earnings | 9,317 | 8,606 |
| Other equityinterest | (935) | (884) |
| Non-controllinginterests | 18 | 58 |
| Total equity | 10,428 | 9,808 |
| Total liabilities and equity | 19,078 19,543 |
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: Appendix 2 Condensed Statement of Comprehensive Income
| Expressed in thousands of New Taiwan Dollars | Expressed in thousands of New Taiwan Dollars | |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 2020 | |
| Operating Revenues | 3,553,782 | 3,132,376 |
| Operating costs | 2,779,417 | 2,584,845 |
| Gross profit | 774,365 | 547,531 |
| Operating expenses | 420,378 | 388,998 |
| Net operating income | 353,987 | 158,533 |
| Non operating income and expenses | 759,013 | 184,858 |
| Profit before tax | 1,113,000 | 343,391 |
| Less: tax expenses | 81,992 | 23,003 |
| Profit | 1,031,008 | 320,388 |
| Other comprehensive income, net | (61,552) | (355,480) |
| Comprehensive income | 969,456 | (35,092) |
| Earnings per share | 5.27 1.67 |
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: Appendix 3 Corporate Bonds Issuance
| Tranche | 2017 | 2020-1 | 2020-2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Amount (NT$ 100M) |
8 | 15 | 10 |
| Tenor | 5 Years | 5 Years | 5 Years |
| Due Date | 10-Apr-2022* | 28-Aug-2025 | 28-Aug-2025 |
| Interest Rate | 1.13% | 0.64% | 0.66% |
| Interest Payment | Annually | Annually | Annually |
| Guarantee Bank | Shanghai Commercial Bank |
Mega Bank | Shanghai Commercial Bank |
*** Amount of NTD 400 million was repaid in APR 2020**
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Disclaimer
The information and opinions in this report were prepared by CMT. Though the information herein is believed to be reliable and has been obtained from market sources believed to be reliable, CMT makes no representation as to its accuracy or completeness.
The material and the information contained herein are provided for general information purposes, and may not be reproduced without the written permission of CMT. CMT shall not be liable to the recipient or any third party for any loss, liability or damage, cost or expense including without limitation, direct, indirect, consequential loss or damage, any loss of profit, loss of use, loss of or interruption in business, loss of goodwill, loss of data arising out of, or in connection with, the use of and the reliance on the information whether in contract, tort, negligence, bailment, breach of statutory duty or otherwise, even if foreseeable. This disclaimer shall be governed by and construed in accordance with Laws of Taiwan, R.O.C.
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Contact Information
Web Site: www.cmt.tw
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Investor Relations:
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Thank You !
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