CMT — Investor Presentation 2021

Mar 26, 2021

股票代號：2612 TT

法人說明會

報告人：唐邦正 海運業務部協理 日期： 2021年03月30日

報告大綱

海岬型散裝輪營運展望

散裝海運市場最新發展

公司概況

附錄

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2021 3月法人說明會 1

營運展望

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市場營運展望

海岬型散裝輪運價在第一季走揚

• 現貨日租金在一月創今年以來最高US$26,489，隨後市場在二月回落但在第一 季末重現動能，現貨日租金本季平均為US$ 17,021；鐵礦砂價格創十年新高 ，今年第一季圴價維持US$168/噸

中國大陸對鐵礦砂需求穩定成長

• 中國大陸今年一、二月鐵礦砂進口量年增率約3%，合計港口庫存量在相對低點

• 去年總進口量約11億4千6百萬噸，今年進口量預估持續成長

全球船隊噸位淨成長率開始下降

• 今年加入營運10-40萬噸級新船估計約100艘，拆船數量可望再增加

• 今年第一季船舶噸位淨成長率約0.96%

短期市場展望

• 疫情穩定後各國礦區、港口運作回歸正常，新船噸位壓力今年過後大幅減輕

• 今年第一季淡季不淡。遠期運費呈正價差反映市場對未來三季看好

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2021 3月法人說明會 3

中國大陸重要經濟數據回顧

• 2020年中國大陸鋼鐵產量達10億5千3百萬噸，年增率約5.2%； 今年一、二月鐵礦砂進口量達1億8千萬噸，煤炭進口量達4千1 百萬噸

• 中國大陸2020年全年國內生產總值達14.7兆美元，全年GDP增 速為2.3%，為全球唯一實現經濟正成長的主要經濟體

• 今年一、二月，大陸全國規模以上工業增加值較去年同期增長 35.1％；大陸房地產開發投資較去年同期增長38.3%，與2019 年同期相較上漲15.7%

• 今年一、二月，大陸固定資產投資增長35.0%；大陸全社會用電 量達1.26兆千瓦時，增速較去年同期提高22%

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2021 3月法人說明會

4

今年散裝海運市場關注焦點

全球經濟反彈力道

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疫苗核准施打速度加快，加上中國大陸經濟 持續增溫，全球GDP可望於今年成長超過5%

中澳貿易關係

中國大陸去年第四季開始抵制澳洲煤炭，未 來密切關注中澳關係改善情况及是否持續轉 向自印尼等其他國家進口

巴西鐵礦砂出口量

巴西各大礦區開採及出口量今年開始恢復正 常水準，為長水路海運需求帶來助益

中、小型散裝輪運價走勢

去年第四季開始中、小型散裝輪受惠於美洲 穀物出口量大幅增加，市場期待開啟各船型 運價之連動效應

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2021 3月法人說明會

5

市場供需現況- 需求面

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鐵礦砂
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Clarksons 公司預估2021年中國大 陸進口量小幅成長。巴西出口量增 加6%，澳洲出口量成長2%；全球 鐵礦砂需求全年成長3%

煤炭 Clarksons公司預估2021年中國 大陸進口量下滑4% 。澳洲出口量 增加4% ，印尼出口量增加6% ； 全球海運量預估成長5%

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2021 3月法人說明會 6

市場供需現況- 供給面

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新造船
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舊船拆解
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根據IHS Markit統計資料，2021 年10-40萬噸級新船預計交付102 艘，噸位淨成長率3.8%。2022年 新船預計交付28艘

老舊船舶陸續淘汰，2020年1040萬噸級散裝輪拆船數量高達56 艘；2021年預計拆解30-40艘

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2021 3月法人說明會

7

散裝海運市場最新發展

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全球經濟從谷底復甦

 IMF預估2021年全球GDP增長5.5%

 全球乾散貨海運量在2021年可望成長約3.7%

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14
12.5
12
10
8
6.3
5.4 5.8 5.8 5.6 5.5
6
4.3
4 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.8 4 3.5 3.7
2.7 2.8
1.4
2
0.5
0.2
0
-2
-1.9
-4
-3.5
-6
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020(e) 2021(f)
Global GDP Growth (%) Dry Bulk Trade Growth (%)
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Source: IMF / Clarksons Platou

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2021 3月法人說明會 9

全球乾散貨海運量預估增長3.7%

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Million Tons YOY
Cape Focus
Iron Ore 1,544 2.7%
Coal 1,221 4.8%
Bauxite 156 7.6%
Capesize focus cargoes total 2,921 3.8%
Grain 523 1.8%
Forest Products 383 6.4%
Steel Products 355 4.1%
Fertilizer 185 2.2%
Agribulks 169 0.0%
Cement 148 4.2%
Scrap 95 5.6%
Petroleum Coke 72 1.4%
Sugar 60 -7.7%
Salt 55 5.8%
Nickel Ore 50 6.4%
Manganese Ore 48 6.7%
Others 266 6.0%
2021(E) Total Dry Bulk 5,330 3.7%
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Source: Clarksons Platou

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2021 3月法人說明會 10

乾散貨海運量中各型散裝輪佔比

% of Dry Bulk Cargoes Iron Ore 33% Coal 27% Grain 14% Minor Bulks 26%		Handysize	Supramax	**Panamax **	Capesize	Total
	Coal Iron Ore Agricultural goods Alumina / Bauxite Steel Products Fertilizers Minerals Minor Ores Semi-Processed Biomass Construction Wood Products Other Other Ferrous	10% 24% 51% 19% 2% 7% 8% 76% 25% 16% 27% 0% 4% 4% 6% 4% 16% 7% 0% 0% 12% 8% 1% 0% 7% 6% 1% 0% 5% 8% 1% 0% 5% 5% 0% 0% 3% 6% 1% 0% 5% 5% 2% 0% 5% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 0% 0% 1% 1% 0% 0%				27% 33% 14% 5% 4% 4% 3% 3% 2% 2% 3% 1% 0% 1%

Source: Clarksons Platou & Maersk Broker

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2021 3月法人說明會 11

全球鐵礦砂/煤炭出口量預測 2021全年，全球鐵礦砂出口量成長3%，煤炭出口量成長5%

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Iron Ore Coal
Million Tons
Million Tons
1544
1600 1503 1600
1477 1456
1400 1400 1287
1263
1221
1165
1200 1200
1000 871 886 1000
835 836
800 800
600 600
457
387 348 340 360 380422 383 362 404 373 427
400 400
200 200
0 0
2018 2019 2020 2021(f) 2018 2019 2020 2021(f)
Brazil Australia Total
Australia Indonesia Total
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Source: Clarksons Platou

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2021 3月法人說明會 12

Vale鐵礦砂產量逐年回升

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Source: Vale

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2021 3月法人說明會 13

鐵礦砂價格在高檔整理

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March 2021
200 February 2011 US$ 178.45/MT
US$ 193.00/MT
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40 February 2020
December 2015 US$ 79.80/MT
US$ 37.00/MT
20
62% FE CFR China, US$/MT
0
Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21
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Source: SSY

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2021 3月法人說明會 14

中國大陸煤炭進口量

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Million Tons
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Australia Indonesia Russia Mongolia Philippines All origins
2019 2020
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Source: PRC Customs

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2021 3月法人說明會 15

、 中 澳煤炭進出口比例變化

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Source: Arrow Shipbroking

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2021 3月法人說明會 16

全球鋼鐵產量穩定回升 中國大陸2020年全年粗鋼產量成長率5.2%，2021年預估成長2.8%

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Source: World Steel Association

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2021 3月法人說明會 17

中國大陸原物料進口量

• 鐵礦砂：全年預估進口量增加，達到 11億5千萬噸

• 煤炭：全年預估進口量減少約4%，達到 2億3千萬噸

• 鋁礬土：全年預估進口量成長約8%，達到 1億3千萬噸

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Iron Ore
Million Tons
1400 78%
1200 76%
1000 74%
800 72%
600 70%
400 68%
200 66%
0 64%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021(f)
Chinese Iron Ore Import % of global imports
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Coal

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Million Tons
300 25%
250
% 20%
200
15%
150
10%
100
5%
50
0 0%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021(f)
Chinese Coal Import % of global imports
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Source: Clarksons Platou

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2021 3月法人說明會 18

中國大陸鐵礦砂港口庫存量

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Source: Drewry Maritime Research

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2021 3月法人說明會 19

環保法規趨嚴新船訂單縮減

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Capesize Orderbook
No.
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Delivered in Remaining 2021 2022 2023
Q1 2021 2021
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Dry Bulk New Ship Ordering
% of Fleet (DWT)
100% 91%
81%
80%
62%
60%
37%
40%
[24%]
20% 17% [21%] 18% 13% [15%] [16%] 13%
7% 7%
0%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Jan
2021
Capesize Ordering (100,000 + dwt) Total Bulk Fleet Ordering
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	ORDERBOOK AS % OF EXISTING FLEET	AVERAGE AGE	OVER 20 YEARS	OLD	JAN 2021 SCRAPPING AS % OF EXISTING FLEET	JAN 2021 SCRAPPING AS % OF EXISTING FLEET
Handysize (10,000 - 40,000 dwt)	3%	12.0	13%		0.00%
Handymax (incl. Supramax & Ultramax)	5%	10.1	7%		0.05%
(40,000 - 65,000 dwt)
Panamax (incl, Kamsarmax) (65,000 - 100,000 dwt)	6%	10.3	9%		0.04%
Capesize (100,000 + dwt)	7%	8.7	2%		0.17%
Total Dry Bulk > 10,000 dwt	6%	10.5	6%		0.09%

Source: Clarksons Platou

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2021 3月法人說明會 20

海岬型船隊噸位增長趨緩

Capesize Supply Development

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Million DWT
25.00
25 6.00%
20
3.71% 4.00%
15
10
2.00%
5.42
5
0.96%
0 0.00%
1.94
-5
-2.00%
-10
11.60
-15
-4.00%
-20
-25 -6.00%
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Q1 2021
Scrapping New Deliveries Net Fleet Growth
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Source: Clarksons Platou

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2021 3月法人說明會 21

新造船/二手船價格上漲

TYPE	TYPE	PRICE (IN US$ MILLION)	PRICE (IN US$ MILLION)	PRICE (IN US$ MILLION)	PRICE (IN US$ MILLION)	PRICE (IN US$ MILLION)
YEAR		2019	2020		March 2021
208,000 DWT	NB	54.5	52.0	-5%	56.0	+8%
180,000 DWT	NB	49.5	46.5	-6%	50.5	+9%
180,000 DWT (ECO)	5-YR	37.5	35.5	-5%	39.0	+10%
180,000 DWT	10-YR	22.0	19.5	-11%	25.3	+30%
176,000 DWT	15-YR	13.5	12.8	-5%	16.5	+29%

Source: Clarksons Platou / Internal Assessment

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2021 3月法人說明會 22

2019-2021年各型散裝輪運費變化

Freight Indices

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40,000
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21
Capesize 5TC (180K) Kamsarmax 5TC (82K) Supra/Ultramax 10TC (58K) Handysize 6TC (28K)
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Source: Clarksons Platou

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2021 3月法人說明會 23

BDI波羅的海乾散貨運價指數

Baltic Exchange Dry Index

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3000
4/Sep/2019
2500 22/Mar/2021 BDI: 2,518
BDI: 2,319
6/Oct/2020
10/Feb/2021
BDI: 2,097
BDI: 1,303
2000
1500
1000 11/Feb/2019
BDI: 595
BDI Avg.
500 Year 2019 1,353
14/May/2020 Year 2020 1,066
BDI: 393
Jan-Mar 2021 1,713
0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2019 BDI 2020 BDI 2021 BDI
Source: Clarksons Platou
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2021 3月法人說明會 24

BCI波羅的海海岬型運價指數

Baltic Exchange Capesize Index

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5500
4/Sep/2019
3/Jul/2020 BCI: 5,043
13/Jan/2021
BCI: 4,440
4500
BCI: 3,194
3500 12/Feb/2021
BCI:1,242
9/Mar/2020
BCI: -372
2500
2/Apr/2019
BCI: 92
1500 5TC Avg. BCI Avg.
Year 2019 18,025 2,261
Year 2020 13,070 1,450
500
Jan-Mar 2021 17,021 2,052
-500
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2019 BCI 2020 BCI 2021 BCI
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Source: Clarksons Platou

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2021 3月法人說明會 25

公司概況

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公司簡介

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海運業務 ：

中國航運公司的核心經營項目，主要管理自有十艘海岬型散裝輪船隊，經營國際大宗物資運輸等多元化業務

內陸貨櫃運輸 ：

偉聯運輸是台灣規模最大貨櫃運輸業者之一，主要提供貨櫃內陸運輸之所有相關作業及服務

倉儲物流 ：

中航物流在北台灣擁有兩大貨櫃集散站，具有直通南北大港等優越地理位置，提供客戶貨櫃、貨物進出口的快捷服務

代理空運業務 ：

中國航運公司空運部為沙烏地阿拉伯航空在台灣地區客運及貨運業務總代理（GSA）

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2021 3月法人說明會 27

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中航海岬型散裝輪船隊
China Peace China Progress China Pride China Triumph China Prosperity
中華和平輪 中華富進輪 中華榮耀輪 中華光輝輪 中華鴻運輪
174,413 DWT 174,322 DWT 177,856 DWT 203,028 DWT 203,028 DWT
2005 2006 2009 2011 2012
2017 2017 2016 2013 2012
China Honour China Enterprise China Harmony China Fortune China Pioneer
中華名望輪 中華偉業輪 中華和諧輪 中華偉運輪 中華先鋒輪
179,562 DWT 207,986 DWT 179,505 DWT 206,061 DWT 206,079 DWT
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2021 3月法人說明會 28

2020年度營收佔比

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48%
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海運業務
內陸貨櫃運輸及
物流業務
代理空運及
其他業務
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51%
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1%
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2021 3月法人說明會 29

重要轉投資事業

公司名稱	持有起始年	於109.12.31持股比例	主要營業項目
台灣航業股份有限公司	2006	5.85%	50,000-80,000載重噸 散裝輪運輸
環能海運股份有限公司	2011	12.00%	VLCC等原油及成品油 運輸

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2021 3月法人說明會 30

五年財務概況

單位：新台幣百萬元

年度	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
營業收入	3,361	3,295	3,218	3,820	3,763	3,131
本期淨利(損)	333	48	98	514	324	329
每股盈餘(新台幣)	1.30	0.21	0.50	2.60	1.64	1.67
現金及約當現金	4,506	3,686	2,940	3,345	3,288	3,742
負債總額	10,173	11,148	10,652	10,237	10,022	9,734
權益總額	11,141	10,323	9,427	10,187	9,934	9,750
權益報酬率(%)	3.0%	0.5%	1.0%	5.2%	3.2%	3.3%
資產報酬率(%)	2.1%	0.9%	1.3%	3.5%	2.5%	2.3%
負債占資產比率(%)	48%	52%	53%	50%	50%	50%

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2021 3月法人說明會 31

歷年股利分配

年份	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
現金股利/減資(新台幣)	3.20	2.00	1.00	1.50	1.30	2.50 ~~*~~	0.50	0.50	1.60	0.80
每股盈餘(新台幣)	7.53	3.92	2.23	1.55	1.30	1.30	0.21	0.50	2.60	1.64
3.20 2.00 1.00 1.50 1.30 0.20 0.50 0.50 1.60 0.80 42% 51% 45% 97% 100% 192% 238% 100% 62% 49% 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% Cash Dividend Capital Reduction Dividend Payout Ratio 2.30*

*本公司於2016年分配2015年現金股利為新台幣0.2元，另於2016年度為提升股東權益報酬率，辦理現金減資退還股東股款，每股退還新台幣2.3元，共計新台幣2.5元

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2021 3月法人說明會 32

附錄一：簡明資產負債表

	單位：新台幣百萬元	單位：新台幣百萬元
資產	109年12月31日	108年12月31日
流動資產	5,078	3,959
不動產、廠房及設備	12,101	13,549
無形資產	10	12
其他資產	2,295	2,437
資產總額	19,484	19,957
負債及權益
流動負債	3,505	3,110
非流動負債	6,229	6,913
負債總額	9,734	10,023
屬母公司業主之權益
股本	1,975	1,975
資本公積	53	53
保留盈餘	8,606	8,442
其他權益	(884)	(536)
權益總額	9,750	9,934
負債及權益總額	19,484 19,957

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2021 3月法人說明會 33

附錄二：簡明綜合損益表

	單位：新台幣千元	單位：新台幣千元
	109年度	108年度
營業收入	3,131,115	3,762,725
營業成本	2,583,263	2,933,577
營業毛利	547,852	829,148
營業費用	376,341	369,497
營業損益	171,511	459,651
營業外收入(支出)	180,548	(81,393)
稅前淨利(損)	352,059	378,258
減：所得稅費用	23,020	54,416
本期淨利(損)(全數歸屬於母公司業主)	329,039	323,842
本期其他綜合損益(稅後淨額)	(355,480)	(260,319)
本期綜合損益總額(全數歸屬於母公司業主)	(26,441)	63,523
每股盈餘	1.67 1.64

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2021 3月法人說明會 34

附錄三：公司債明細

期別	2016-1	2016-2	2017	2020-1	2020-2
發行總額 (新台幣億)	9	14	8	15	10
發行期間	5 年期	5 年期	5 年期	5 年期	5 年期
到期日	16-Mar-2021	16-Mar-2021	10-Apr-2022*	28-Aug-2025	28-Aug-2025
年利率	0.88%	1.00%	1.13%	0.64%	0.66%
付息方式	年付息一次	年付息一次	年付息一次	年付息一次	年付息一次
保證銀行	臺灣銀行	兆豐國際商業銀行	上海商業儲蓄銀行	兆豐國際商業銀行	上海商業儲蓄銀行

*發行總額中新台幣4億已於2020年4月償還

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2021 3月法人說明會 35

免責聲明

The information and opinions in this report were prepared by CMT. Though the information herein is believed to be reliable and has been obtained from market sources believed to be reliable, CMT makes no representation as to its accuracy or completeness.

The material and the information contained herein are provided for general information purposes, and may not be reproduced without the written permission of CMT. CMT shall not be liable to the recipient or any third party for any loss, liability or damage, cost or expense including without limitation, direct, indirect, consequential loss or damage, any loss of profit, loss of use, loss of or interruption in business, loss of goodwill, loss of data arising out of, or in connection with, the use of and the reliance on the information whether in contract, tort, negligence, bailment, breach of statutory duty or otherwise, even if foreseeable. This disclaimer shall be governed by and construed in accordance with Laws of Taiwan, R.O.C.

We undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward looking statement contained in this presentation, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by law. In light of the risks, uncertainties and assumptions, the forward looking events discussed in this presentation might not occur, and our actual results could differ materially from those anticipated in these forward-looking statements.

聯絡資訊：

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2021 3月法人說明會 36

感謝您的出席！

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