CMT — Investor Presentation 2021

Jun 29, 2021

股票代號：2612 TT

法人說明會

報告人：唐邦正 海運業務部協理 日期： 2021年6月30日

報告大綱

海岬型散裝輪營運展望

散裝海運市場最新發展

公司概況

附錄

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2021 6月法人說明會 1

營運展望

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市場營運展望

海岬型散裝輪運價在第二季如預期創高

• 現貨日租金在五月創今年以來最高US$ 44,817，為2010年以來新高點。雖然 市場在第二季末回落，第二季現貨日租金平均仍達US$ 30,965，期貨運價維 持正價差。鐵礦砂價格續創十年新高，今年上半年圴價維持US$ 183/噸

中國大陸對鐵礦砂需求持續成長

• 中國大陸今年一至五月鐵礦砂進口量年增率約5.5%

• 合計港口庫存量仍在相對低點，進口量可望穩定成長

全球船隊噸位淨成長率降低

• 今年一至五月加入營運10-40萬載重噸級新船估計約43艘，拆船數量為11艘

• 今年一至五月船舶噸位淨成長率約1.82%

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短期市場展望

• 今年各國鋼鐵需求增加，鋼廠營收獲利雙成長進而帶動鐵礦砂需求與價格上揚

• 第二季供需呈正面發展，現貨、遠期運費同步上漲可望反映在長約價格

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2021 6月法人說明會 3

擴充運能啟動新造船計畫

• 公司今年五月與青島北海船廠簽約建造二艘21萬載重噸紐卡斯爾 極限型(Newcastlemax)高規格環保節能散裝輪，每艘造價為美金 5,850萬皆預定於2023年交船

• 為響應全球節能減碳的環保目標，公司與船廠簽約過程中主動升級 多項船舶技術規範，包括加裝軸發電機、預設LNG雙燃料與使用岸 電(AMP)等節能減碳設備

• 二艘新船不但符合最新環保法規與排放標凖，也領先業界超前部署 預先達到IMO第三期能源效率設計指數級別(EEDI Phase-3 Compliant)

• 在建造過程當中，公司將在綠色環保節能(Green, Fuel Efficient)、 智能高效(Smart Ship)、及資訊安全(Cyber Security)等進行全面 優化以提升船隊整體競爭力

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2021 6月法人說明會 4

下半年散裝海運市場關注焦點

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4

全球各國解封有望

疫苗核准施打速度加快，加上中國大陸經濟 持續增溫，全球GDP可望於今年成長超過6%

中澳貿易關係緊張

中國大陸去年開始抵制澳洲煤炭，今年以來 仍未有所改善。澳洲增加出口至印度而大陸 持續轉向自印尼等國進口

大陸抑制原物料價格以防通膨

大陸當局於五月宣稱對黑系商品進行調查並 採取行動以防止通膨阻礙經濟復甦。市場隨 時關注原物料價格過熱及官方各項降溫措施

中、小型散裝輪運價再起

第二季開始中、小型散裝輪再度受惠於南美 穀物出口量大幅增加，運價再次超前海岬型 船，因此市場期待開啟新一波的連動效應

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2021 6月法人說明會

5

中國大陸重要經濟數據回顧

• 中國大陸2021年一至三月GDP年增率為18.3%，全年預估 成長8.4%

• 2021年一至五月中國大陸粗鋼產量達約4億7千3百萬噸， 年增率約13.9%；鋼材出口量約3千萬噸，年增率約24%

• 今年五月中旬中國大陸鋼材綜合價格指數(CSPI)報174.81 點，較去年底上漲40.4％

• 2021年一至五月鐵礦砂總進口量約4億7千2百萬噸，年增 率約6%；煤炭總進口量約1億1千1百萬噸，年減約25%

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2021 6月法人說明會 6

市場供需現況- 需求面

鐵礦砂 煤炭 Clarksons公司預估2021年中國大 Clarksons公司預估2021年中國 陸進口量持平。巴西出口量增加 大陸進口量下滑5% 。澳洲出口量 10%，澳洲出口量成長2%；全球 增加2% ，印尼出口量增加7% ； 鐵礦砂需求全年成長3% 全球海運量預估成長5%

Clarksons公司預估2021年中國大 陸進口量持平。巴西出口量增加 10%，澳洲出口量成長2%；全球 鐵礦砂需求全年成長3%

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2021 6月法人說明會 7

市場供需現況- 供給面

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新造船
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根據IHS Markit統計資料，2021 年10-40萬噸級新船預計交付103 艘，噸位淨成長率3.5%。2022年 新船預計交付46艘

舊船拆解 老舊船舶陸續淘汰，2020年1040萬噸級散裝輪拆船數量高達56 艘；2021年預計拆解30-40艘

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2021 6月法人說明會

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散裝海運市場最新發展

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BDI波羅的海乾散貨運價指數

Baltic Exchange Dry Index

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3500
17/Jun/2021
BDI: 3,267
3000
2500
10/Feb/2021 6/Oct/2020
BDI: 1,303 BDI: 2,097
2000
1500
1000
BDI Avg.
Year 2019 1,353
500
Year 2020 1,066
14/May/2020
BDI: 393 Jan-Jun 2021 2,221
0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2019 BDI 2020 BDI 2021 BDI
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Source: Clarksons Platou

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2021 6月法人說明會 10

BCI波羅的海海岬型運價指數

Baltic Exchange Capesize Index

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5/May/2021 3/Jul/2020
5000
BCI: 5,404 BCI: 4,440
4000
9/Mar/2020
BCI: -372
3000
12/Feb/2021
BCI:1,242
2000
5TC Avg. BCI Avg.
Year 2019 18,025 2,261
1000
Year 2020 13,070 1,450
Jan-Jun 2021 23,700 2,858
0
-1000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2019 BCI 2020 BCI 2021 BCI
Source: Clarksons Platou
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2021 6月法人說明會 11

2019-2021年各型散裝輪運費變化

Spot TCE (US$)

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50,000
45,000
40,000
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21
Capesize 5TC (180K) Kamsarmax 5TC (82K) Supra/Ultramax 10TC (58K) Handysize 6TC (28K)
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Source: Clarksons Platou

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2021 6月法人說明會 12

全球經濟穩健復甦

 IMF預估2021年全球GDP增長6.0%

 全球乾散貨海運量在2021年可望成長約3.7%

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14
12.5
12
10
8
6.3
5.4 5.8 5.8 5.6 6
6
4.3
4 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.8 4 3.5 3.7
2.7 2.8
1.4
2
0.2 0.4
0
-2
-1.5
-4
-3.3
-6
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021(f)
Global GDP Growth (%) Dry Bulk Trade Growth (%)
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Source: IMF & Clarksons Platou

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2021 6月法人說明會 13

全球乾散貨海運量預估增長3.7%

	3.3% 4.7% 3.4% 3.9% 2.3% 5.5% 3.4% 1.6% 0.0% 4.2% 6.7% 1.4% -6.0% 5.8% 6.1% 2.2% 6.8% 3.7% Iron Ore 1,552 Coal 1,221 Bauxite 150 Capesize focus cargoes total 2,923 Grain 524 Forest Products 385 Steel Products 366 Fertilizer 188 Agribulks 169 Cement 148 Scrap 96 Petroleum Coke 72 Sugar 63 Salt 55 Nickel Ore 52 Manganese Ore 47 Others 268 2021(E) Total Dry Bulk 5,356 YOY Million Tons Cape Focus	3.3% 4.7% 3.4% 3.9% 2.3% 5.5% 3.4% 1.6% 0.0% 4.2% 6.7% 1.4% -6.0% 5.8% 6.1% 2.2% 6.8% 3.7% Iron Ore 1,552 Coal 1,221 Bauxite 150 Capesize focus cargoes total 2,923 Grain 524 Forest Products 385 Steel Products 366 Fertilizer 188 Agribulks 169 Cement 148 Scrap 96 Petroleum Coke 72 Sugar 63 Salt 55 Nickel Ore 52 Manganese Ore 47 Others 268 2021(E) Total Dry Bulk 5,356 YOY Million Tons Cape Focus	3.3% 4.7% 3.4% 3.9% 2.3% 5.5% 3.4% 1.6% 0.0% 4.2% 6.7% 1.4% -6.0% 5.8% 6.1% 2.2% 6.8% 3.7% Iron Ore 1,552 Coal 1,221 Bauxite 150 Capesize focus cargoes total 2,923 Grain 524 Forest Products 385 Steel Products 366 Fertilizer 188 Agribulks 169 Cement 148 Scrap 96 Petroleum Coke 72 Sugar 63 Salt 55 Nickel Ore 52 Manganese Ore 47 Others 268 2021(E) Total Dry Bulk 5,356 YOY Million Tons Cape Focus
		Capesize focus cargoes total 2,923
		-6.0% Grain 524 Forest Products 385 Steel Products 366 Fertilizer 188 Agribulks 169 Cement 148 Scrap 96 Petroleum Coke 72 Sugar 63 Salt 55 Nickel Ore 52 Manganese Ore 47 Others 268
		2021(E) Total Dry Bulk 5,356	3.7%

Source: Clarksons Platou

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2021 6月法人說明會 14

乾散貨海運量與運力成長率對比

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Source: Arrow

2021 6月法人說明會 15

乾散貨海運量中各型散裝輪佔比

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% of Dry Bulk Cargoes
Minor Bulks
26% Iron Ore
33%
Grain
14%
Coal
27%
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	Handysize	Supramax	**Panamax **	Capesize	Total
Coal Iron Ore Agricultural goods Alumina / Bauxite Steel Products Fertilizers Minerals Minor Ores Semi-Processed Biomass Construction Wood Products Other Other Ferrous	10% 24% 51% 19% 2% 7% 8% 76% 25% 16% 27% 0% 4% 4% 6% 4% 16% 7% 0% 0% 12% 8% 1% 0% 7% 6% 1% 0% 5% 8% 1% 0% 5% 5% 0% 0% 3% 6% 1% 0% 5% 5% 2% 0% 5% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 0% 0% 1% 1% 0% 0%				27% 33% 14% 5% 4% 4% 3% 3% 2% 2% 3% 1% 0% 1%

Source: Maersk Broker

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2021 6月法人說明會 16

全球鐵礦砂/煤炭出口量預測

2021全年，全球鐵礦砂出口量成長3%，煤炭出口量成長5%

Iron Ore

Coal

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Million Tons
1552
1600 1503
1476 1456
1400
1200
1000 867 881
835 836
800
600
387 373
348 340
400
200
0
2018 2019 2020 2021(f)
Brazil Australia Total
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Million Tons

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1600
1400 1287
1263
1222
1165
1200
1000
800
600
457
380422 383 362 404 368 431
400
200
0
2018 2019 2020 2021(f)
Australia Indonesia Total
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Source: Clarksons Platou

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2021 6月法人說明會 17

Vale鐵礦砂產量逐年回升

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Source: Vale

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2021 6月法人說明會 18

鐵礦砂價格再創新高

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240
May 2021
220
US$ 233.10/MT
February 2011
200 US$ 193.00/MT
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
December 2015
20 62% FE CFR China, US$/MT US$ 37.00/MT February 2020
US$ 79.80/MT
0
Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21
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Source: SSY

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2021 6月法人說明會 19

中國大陸粗鋼價格趨勢

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250 7500
200 6700
150 5900
100 5100
50 4300
0 3500
1-Jan-2021 1-Feb-2021 1-Mar-2021 1-Apr-2021 1-May-2021 1-Jun-2021
62% FE CFR China, US$/mt Hot Roll Steel Plate (SPHC), RMB/mt
62% FE CFR China, US$/mt
Hot Roll Steel Plate (SPHC), RMB/mt
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Source: SSY & MarcoMicro

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2021 6月法人說明會 20

全球鋼鐵產量穩定回升

中國大陸2020年全年粗鋼產量成長率6.9%，2021年預估成長3.0%

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Source: World Steel Association

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2021 6月法人說明會 21

中國大陸原物料進口量

• 鐵礦砂：全年預估進口量持平，達到 11億4千萬噸

• 煤炭：全年預估進口量減少約5%，達到 2億3千萬噸

• 鋁礬土：全年預估進口量成長約8%，達到 1億3千萬噸

Iron Ore

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Million Tons
1400 78%
1200 76%
1000 74%
800 72%
600 70%
400 68%
200 66%
0 64%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021(f)
Chinese Iron Ore Import % of global imports
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Coal

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Million Tons
300 25%
250
% 20%
200
15%
150
10%
100
5%
50
0 0%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021(f)
Chinese Coal Import % of global imports
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Source: Clarksons Platou

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2021 6月法人說明會 22

中國大陸鐵礦砂進口量

PRC Iron Ore Monthly Imports

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Million Tons
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2020 2021
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Source: Thurlestone Research

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2021 6月法人說明會 23

中國大陸鐵礦砂港口庫存量

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165
152
139
Inventory
126
Average 2018
113 Average 2019
Average 2020
100
Million Tons
Jan 18 Mar 18 May 18 Jul 18 Sep 18 Nov 18 Jan 19 Mar 19 May 19 Jul 19 Sep 19 Nov 19 Jan 20 Mar 20 May 20 Jul 20 Sep 20 Nov 20 Jan 21 Mar 21 May 21
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Source: Drewry Maritime Research

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2021 6月法人說明會 24

中國大陸煤炭進口量

Million Tons

350

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300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Australia Indonesia Russia Mongolia Philippines All origins
2019 2020 Jan-Apr/2021
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Source: PRC Customs

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2021 6月法人說明會 25

環保法規趨嚴新船訂單縮減

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No. Capesize Orderbook
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Delivered in Remaining 2021 2022 2023
May 2021 2021
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Dry Bulk New Ship Ordering
% of Fleet (DWT)
100% 91%
81%
80%
62%
60%
37%
40%
[24%]
20% 17% [21%] 18% 13% [15%] [16%] 13%
7% 6%
0%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Apr
2021
Capesize Ordering (100,000 + dwt) Total Bulk Fleet Ordering
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	ORDERBOOK AS % OF EXISTING FLEET	AVERAGE AGE	OVER 20 YEARS	OLD	JAN-APR 2021 SCRAPPING AS % OF EXISTING FLEET	JAN-APR 2021 SCRAPPING AS % OF EXISTING FLEET
Handysize (10,000 - 40,000 dwt)	3%	12.1	13%		0.37%
Handymax (incl. Supramax & Ultramax)	6%	10.2	7%		0.18%
(40,000 - 65,000 dwt)
Panamax (incl, Kamsarmax) (65,000 - 100,000 dwt)	6%	10.4	10%		0.17%
Capesize (100,000 + dwt)	6%	8.7	1%		0.76%
Total Dry Bulk > 10,000 dwt	6%	10.6	6%		0.43%

Source: Clarksons Platou

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2021 6月法人說明會 26

海岬型船隊噸位增長趨緩

Capesize Supply Development

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Million DWT
25.00
25 6.00%
20
3.71% 4.00%
15
9.19
10
2.00%
1.82 %
5
0 0.00%
-5 2.62
-2.00%
-10
11.60
-15
-4.00%
-20
-25 -6.00%
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Jan-May 2021
Scrapping New Deliveries Net Fleet Growth
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Source: Clarksons Platou

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2021 6月法人說明會 27

新造船/二手船價格上漲

TYPE	TYPE	PRICE (IN US$ MILLION)	PRICE (IN US$ MILLION)	PRICE (IN US$ MILLION)	PRICE (IN US$ MILLION)	PRICE (IN US$ MILLION)
YEAR		2019	2020		JUNE 2021
208,000 DWT	NB	54.5	52.0	-5%	63.0	+21%
180,000 DWT	NB	49.5	46.5	-6%	57.5	+24%
180,000 DWT (ECO)	5-YR	37.5	35.5	-5%	43.0	+21%
180,000 DWT	10-YR	22.0	19.5	-11%	30.0	+54%
176,000 DWT	15-YR	13.5	12.8	-5%	19.0	+48%

Source: Clarksons Platou & Internal Assessment

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2021 6月法人說明會 28

公司概況

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公司簡介

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物流
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海運業務 ：

中國航運公司的核心經營項目，主要管理自有十艘海岬型散裝輪船隊，經營國際大宗物資運輸等多元化業務

內陸貨櫃運輸 ：

偉聯運輸是台灣規模最大貨櫃運輸業者之一，主要提供貨櫃內陸運輸之所有相關作業及服務

倉儲物流 ：

中航物流在北台灣擁有兩大貨櫃集散站，具有直通南北大港等優越地理位置，提供客戶貨櫃、貨物進出口的快捷服務

代理空運業務 ：

中國航運公司空運部為沙烏地阿拉伯航空在台灣地區客運及貨運業務總代理（GSA）

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2021 6月法人說明會

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中航海岬型散裝輪船隊

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China Peace China Progress China Pride China Triumph China Prosperity China Pioneer
中華和平輪 中華富進輪 中華榮耀輪 中華光輝輪 中華鴻運輪 中華先鋒輪
174,413 DWT 174,322 DWT 177,856 DWT 203,028 DWT 203,028 DWT 206,079 DWT
2005 2006 2009 2011 2012 2012
2023 2023 2017 2017 2016 2013
China Honour China Enterprise China Harmony China Fortune
Newbuilding Newbuilding
中華名望輪 中華偉業輪 中華和諧輪 中華偉運輪
210,000 DWT 210,000 DWT
179,562 DWT 207,986 DWT 179,505 DWT 206,061 DWT
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2021 6月法人說明會 31

一 2021年第 季營收佔比

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海運業務 48%
內陸貨櫃運輸及
51%
物流業務
代理空運及
1%
其他業務
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2021 6月法人說明會 32

五年財務概況

單位：新台幣百萬元

年度	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021 第1季
營業收入	3,295	3,218	3,820	3,763	3,131	792
本期淨利(損)	48	98	514	324	329	221
每股盈餘(新台幣)	0.21	0.50	2.60	1.64	1.67	1.12
現金及約當現金	3,686	2,940	3,345	3,288	3,742	3,028
負債總額	11,148	10,652	10,237	10,022	9,734	8,424
權益總額	10,323	9,427	10,187	9,934	9,750	10,035
權益報酬率(%)	0.5%	1.0%	5.2%	3.2%	3.3%	8.9%
資產報酬率(%)	0.9%	1.3%	3.5%	2.5%	2.3%	5.2%
負債占資產比率(%)	52%	53%	50%	50%	50%	46%

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2021 6月法人說明會 33

歷年股利分配

年份	年份	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
現金股利/減資(新台幣)		2.00	1.00	1.50	1.30	2.50 *	* 0.50	0.50	1.60	0.80	1.60
每股盈餘(新台幣)		3.92	2.23	1.55	1.30	1.30	0.21	0.50	2.60	1.64	1.67
0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50	2.00 1.00 1.50 1.30 ~~0.20~~ 0.50 0.50 1.60 0.80 1.60 2.3 51% 45% 97% 100% 192% 238% 100% 62% 49% 96% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% Cash Dividend Caital Reduction Dividend Paout Ratio *

*本公司於2016年分配2015年現金股利為新台幣0.2元，另於2016年度為提升股東權益報酬率，辦理現金減資退還股東股款，每股退還新台幣2.3元，共計新台幣2.5元

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2021 6月法人說明會 34

附錄一：簡明資產負債表

單位：新台幣百萬元

資產		110年3月31日	109年12月31日	109年3月31日
流動資產		4,573	5,078	3,973
不動產、廠房及設備		12,065	12,101	13,411
無形資產		10	10	11
其他資產		1,811	2,295	2,356
資產總額		18,459	19,484	19,751
負債及權益
流動負債		2,354	3,505	5,416
非流動負債		6,070	6,229	4,399
負債總額		8,424	9,734	9,815
屬母公司業主之權益
股本		1,975	1,975	1,975
資本公積		53	53	53
保留盈餘		8,817	8,606	8,444
其他權益		(810)	(884)	(536)
權益總額		10,035	9,750	9,936
負債及權益總額		18,459 19,484 19,751

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2021 6月法人說明會 35

附錄二：簡明綜合損益表

	單位：新台幣千元	單位：新台幣千元	單位：新台幣千元
	110年第1季	109年度	109年第1季
營業收入	792,821	3,131,115	812,411
營業成本	656,789	2,583,263	666,097
營業毛利	136,032	547,852	146,314
營業費用	98,234	376,341	92,600
營業損益	37,798	171,511	53,714
營業外收入(支出)	187,671	180,548	(43,006)
稅前淨利(損)	225,469	352,059	10,708
減：所得稅費用	4,784	23,020	8,016
本期淨利(損)(全數歸屬於母公司業主)	220,685	329,039	2,692
本期其他綜合損益(稅後淨額)	64,309	(355,480)	(658)
本期綜合損益總額(全數歸屬於母公司業主)	284,994	(26,441)	2,034
每股盈餘	1.12 1.67 0.01

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2021 6月法人說明會 36

附錄三：公司債明細

期別	2017	2020-1	2020-2
發行總額 (新台幣億)	8	15	10
發行期間	5 年期	5 年期	5 年期
到期日	10-Apr-2022*	28-Aug-2025	28-Aug-2025
年利率	1.13%	0.64%	0.66%
付息方式	年付息一次	年付息一次	年付息一次
保證銀行	上海商業儲蓄銀行	兆豐國際商業銀行	上海商業儲蓄銀行

*發行總額中新台幣4億已於2020年4月償還

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2021 6月法人說明會 37

免責聲明

The information and opinions in this report were prepared by CMT. Though the information herein is believed to be reliable and has been obtained from market sources believed to be reliable, CMT makes no representation as to its accuracy or completeness.

The material and the information contained herein are provided for general information purposes, and may not be reproduced without the written permission of CMT. CMT shall not be liable to the recipient or any third party for any loss, liability or damage, cost or expense including without limitation, direct, indirect, consequential loss or damage, any loss of profit, loss of use, loss of or interruption in business, loss of goodwill, loss of data arising out of, or in connection with, the use of and the reliance on the information whether in contract, tort, negligence, bailment, breach of statutory duty or otherwise, even if foreseeable. This disclaimer shall be governed by and construed in accordance with Laws of Taiwan, R.O.C.

We undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward looking statement contained in this presentation, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by law. In light of the risks, uncertainties and assumptions, the forward looking events discussed in this presentation might not occur, and our actual results could differ materially from those anticipated in these forward-looking statements.

聯絡資訊：

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2021 6月法人說明會 38

感謝您的出席！

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