CMT — Investor Presentation 2021

Dec 23, 2021

股票代號：2612 TT

法人說明會 唐邦正 中國航運公司發言人 日期：2021年12月23日

報告大綱

海岬型散裝輪營運展望

散裝海運市場最新發展

公司概況

附錄

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2021 12月法人說明會 1

營運展望

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市場營運展望

海岬型散裝輪運價第四季再創新高

• 現貨日租金在十月創今年以來最高US$ 86,953，為2010年以來新高點。今年 全年現貨日租金平均達約US$ 33,545

• 鐵礦砂價格於第二季創十年新高，但受中國大陸鋼企減產影響，鐵礦砂價格一 度回落至US$ 87/噸

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中國大陸鐵礦砂進口量下滑

• 中國大陸今年一至十一月鐵礦砂進口量年減約3.3%

• 鐵礦砂價格處於相對低點，貿易商逢低回補庫存，有助於穩定進口量

全球船隊噸位淨成長率預期明年下降

• 今年一至十一月加入營運10-40萬載重噸級新船為84艘，拆船數量為14艘

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• 今年一至十一月船舶噸位淨成長率約3.98%

短期市場展望

• 中國大陸本季與明年第一季鋼鐵產量收縮，各項環保與外貿政策仍待觀察

• 受新一波疫情及氣候影響，港口延誤情形有利於支撐現貨及遠期運價，因此公 司仍樂觀看待明年上半年換約情况

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2021 12月法人說明會 3

中航啟動新造船計畫

• 公司於今年與青島北海船廠分別於五月、十月簽約建造共四艘21萬載 重噸Newcastlemax型高規格環保節能散裝輪，造價分別為美金5千8 百50萬(二艘)與6千3百萬(二艘)，預定於2023、2024年交付營運

• 為強化船隊競爭力與逐步達成集團ESG企業永續經營目標，公司與船 廠簽約過程中主動升級多項船舶技術規範，包括加裝軸發電機、預設 LNG雙燃料與使用岸電(AMP)等節能減碳設備

• 四艘新船不但符合最新環保法規與排放標凖，也領先業界超前部署預 先達到IMO第三期能源效率設計指數級別(EEDI Phase-3 Compliant)

• 在建造過程當中，公司將在綠色環保節能、智能高效、及資訊安全等 進行全面優化以提升船隊整體形象與市場競爭力

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2021 12月法人說明會 4

散裝海運市場第四季關注焦點

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全球疫情變化

疫苗施打覆蓋率上升，新型變種病毒仍肆虐 全球。中國大陸經濟可望持續成長，全球 GDP可望於今年成長約6%

煤炭需求再起

亞洲與歐洲煤炭需求大增，大陸轉向自印尼 、俄羅斯等國進口。歐陸受氣候及風力發電 不足影響，燃煤進口量明顯增加

中國大陸鋼鐵減產令

大陸當局下令2021年鋼鐵生產總量不得超過 2020年，造成鐵礦砂庫存上升及鐵礦砂價格 回落，冬奧結束後可望回歸正軌

各國港口防疫連動效應

受惠於港口壅塞惡化，海岬型散裝輪現貨日 租金於十二月重返4萬美元。預期短期內港口 船舶作業延誤仍將繼續削減運力

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2021 12月法人說明會 5

中國大陸重要經濟數據回顧

• 中國大陸2021年一至九月GDP年增率為9.8%，全年預估成 長8.1%

• 2021年一至十一月中國大陸粗鋼產量約9億4千6百萬噸， 年減約2.6%；鋼材出口量約6千2百萬噸，年增約26.7%

• 今年十一月底中國大陸鋼材綜合價格指數(CSPI)報132.37點 ，較去年底上漲6.7％

• 2021年一至十一月鐵礦砂總進口量約10億3千7百萬噸，年 減約3.3%；煤炭總進口量約2億9千1百萬噸，年增約10.0%

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2021 12月法人說明會 6

市場供需現況- 需求面

鐵礦砂 煤炭 Clarksons公司預估2021年中國大 Clarksons公司預估2021年中國 陸進口量減少3%。巴西出口量增 大陸進口量成長11% 。澳洲出口 加5%，澳洲出口量成長1%；全球 量持平，印尼出口量增加7% ； 鐵礦砂需求全年成長1% 全球海運量預估成長6%

Clarksons公司預估2021年中國大 陸進口量減少3%。巴西出口量增 加5%，澳洲出口量成長1%；全球 鐵礦砂需求全年成長1%

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2021 12月法人說明會 7

市場供需現況- 供給面

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新造船
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舊船拆解
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根據IHS Markit統計資料，2021 年10-40萬噸級新船預計交付88艘， 噸位淨成長率4%。2022年新船預 計交付66艘

老舊船舶陸續淘汰，2020年1040萬噸級散裝輪拆船數量高達56 艘；2021年預計拆解20艘

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2021 12月法人說明會 8

散裝海運市場最新發展

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BDI波羅的海乾散貨運價指數

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Baltic Exchange Dry Index
BDI Avg. 7/Oct/2021
BDI: 5,650
Year 2019 1,353
4950
Year 2020 1,066
Year 2021 2,955
3950
6/Oct/2020
2950 10/Feb/2021 BDI: 2,097
BDI: 1,303
1950
950
14/May/2020
BDI: 393
-50
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2019 BDI 2020 BDI 2021 BDI
Source: Clarksons Platou
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2021 12月法人說明會 10

BCI波羅的海海岬型運價指數

Baltic Exchange Capesize Index

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11200
5TC Avg. BCI Avg.
Year 2019 18,025 2,261 7/Oct/2021
BCI: 10,485
9200 Year 2020 13,070 1,450
Year 2021 33,545 4,045
7200
9/Mar/2020
BCI: -372
3/Jul/2020
5200
BCI: 4,440
12/Feb/2021
3200 BCI:1,242
1200
-800
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2019 BCI 2020 BCI 2021 BCI
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Source: Clarksons Platou

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2021 12月法人說明會 11

2019-2021年各型散裝輪運費變化

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Spot TCE (US$)
90,000
Capesize 5TC (180K)
80,000
2021/12/22 - US$20,363
70,000
Kamsarmax 5TC (82K)
60,000
2021/12/22 - US$21,460
50,000
40,000
Supra/Ultramax 10TC (58K)
2021/12/22 - US$25,705
30,000
20,000
Handysize 7TC (38K)
2021/12/22 - US$27,057
10,000
0
Capesize 5TC (180K) Kamsarmax 5TC (82K) Supra/Ultramax 10TC (58K) Handysize 7TC (38K)
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Source: Clarksons Platou

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2021 12月法人說明會 12

全球經濟穩健復甦

 IMF預估2021年全球GDP增長5.9%

 全球乾散貨海運量在2021年可望成長約4.1%

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14
12.5
12
10
8
6.3
6 5.4 5.8 5.8 5.6 5.9
4.3 3.8 4 4.1
4 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.5
2.7 2.8
2 1.4
0.5
0.2
0
-2
-1.6
-3.2
-4
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021(f)
Global GDP Growth (%) Dry Bulk Trade Growth (%)
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Source: IMF & Clarksons Platou

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2021 12月法人說明會 13

全球乾散貨海運量預估增長4.1%

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Million Tons YOY
Cape Focus
Iron Ore 1,524 1.5%
Coal 1,238 6.3%
Bauxite 145 0.0%
Capesize focus cargoes total 2,907 3.4%
Grain 527 2.9%
Forest Products 386 5.8%
Steel Products 379 7.1%
Fertilizer 190 1.6%
Agribulks 177 3.5%
Cement 153 7.7%
Scrap 100 11.1%
Petroleum Coke 71 1.4%
Sugar 64 -3.0%
Salt 55 5.8%
Nickel Ore 56 14.3%
Manganese Ore 47 2.2%
Others 266 5.6%
2021(E) Total Dry Bulk 5,378 4.1%
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Source: Clarksons Platou

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2021 12月法人說明會 14

乾散貨海運量與運力成長率對比

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Source: Arrow

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2021 12月法人說明會 15

乾散貨海運量中各型散裝輪佔比

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% of Dry Bulk Cargoes
Minor Bulks
26% Iron Ore
33%
Grain
14%
Coal
27%
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	Handysize	Supramax	**Panamax **	Capesize	Total
Coal Iron Ore Agricultural goods Alumina / Bauxite Steel Products Fertilizers Minerals Minor Ores Semi-Processed Biomass Construction Wood Products Other Other Ferrous	10% 24% 51% 19% 2% 7% 8% 76% 25% 16% 27% 0% 4% 4% 6% 4% 16% 7% 0% 0% 12% 8% 1% 0% 7% 6% 1% 0% 5% 8% 1% 0% 5% 5% 0% 0% 3% 6% 1% 0% 5% 5% 2% 0% 5% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 0% 0% 1% 1% 0% 0%				27% 33% 14% 5% 4% 4% 3% 3% 2% 2% 3% 1% 0% 1%

Source: Maersk Broker

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2021 12月法人說明會 16

全球鐵礦砂/煤炭出口量預測

2021全年，全球鐵礦砂出口量成長1%，煤炭出口量成長6%

Iron Ore

Coal

Million Tons

Million Tons

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1600 1502 1524
1476 1456
1400
1200
1000
867 874
835 836
800
600
387
348 340 358
400
200
0
2018 2019 2020 2021(f)
Brazil Australia Total
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1600
1400 1264 1284
1238
1165
1200
1000
800
600
380422 383 457 360 404 359 433
400
200
0
2018 2019 2020 2021(f)
Australia Indonesia Total
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Source: Clarksons Platou

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2021 12月法人說明會 17

Vale鐵礦砂產能展望

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Source: Vale

2021 12月法人說明會 18

鐵礦砂價格大幅波動

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240
220 May 2021
February 2011 US$ 233.10/MT
200 US$ 193.00/MT
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
December 2015 Nov 2021
20 US$ 37.00/MT US$ 87.20/MT
0 62% FE CFR China, US$/MT
Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21
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Source: SSY

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2021 12月法人說明會 19

中國大陸粗鋼價格趨勢

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250 7500
200 6700
150 5900
100 5100
50 4300
0 3500
1-Jan-2021 1-Mar-2021 1-May-2021 1-Jul-2021 1-Sep-2021 1-Nov-2021
62% FE CFR China, US$/mt Hot Roll Steel Plate (SPHC), RMB/mt
62% FE CFR China, US$/mt
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Source: SSY & MarcoMicro

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2021 12月法人說明會 20

全球鋼鐵產量持平

中國大陸2020年全年粗鋼產量成長率6.9%，2021年預估減產2.2%

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Source: World Steel Association

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2021 12月法人說明會 21

澳洲煤炭價格走勢

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Source: IHS McCloskey & Howe Robinson

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2021 12月法人說明會 22

中國大陸原物料進口量

• 鐵礦砂：全年預估進口量減少約3%，達到 11億噸

• 煤炭：全年預估進口量增加約11%，達到 2億6千萬噸

Iron Ore

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Million Tons
1400 78%
1200 76%
1000 74%
800 72%
600 70%
400 68%
200 66%
0 64%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021(f)
Chinese Iron Ore Import % of global imports
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Coal

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Million Tons
300 25%
250
% 20%
200
15%
150
10%
100
5%
50
0 0%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021(f)
Chinese Coal Import % of global imports
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Source: Clarksons Platou

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2021 12月法人說明會 23

中國大陸鐵礦砂進口量

Million Tons

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120
	Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2020 2021

Source: Thurlestone Research

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2021 12月法人說明會 24

中國大陸鐵礦砂港口庫存量

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165
152
139
126
113
100
Inventory Average 2018 Average 2019 Average 2020
Million tonnes
Jan 18 Mar 18 May 18 Jul 18 Sep 18 Nov 18 Jan 19 Mar 19 May 19 Jul 19 Sep 19 Nov 19 Jan 20 Mar 20 May 20 Jul 20 Sep 20 Nov 20 Jan 21 Mar 21 May 21 Jul 21 Sep 21 Nov 21
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Source: Drewry Maritime Research

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2021 12月法人說明會 25

中國大陸煤炭進口量

Million Tons

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350
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300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Australia Indonesia Russia Mongolia Philippines All origins
2019 2020 Jan-Oct/2021
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Source: PRC Customs

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2021 12月法人說明會 26

環保法規趨嚴新船訂單縮減

Capesize Orderbook

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No.
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Delivered in Remaining 2021 2022 2023
Nov 2021 2021
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Dry Bulk New Ship Ordering

% of Fleet (DWT)

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100% 91%
81%
80%
62%
60%
37%
40%
[24%]
20% 17% [21%] 18% 13% [15%] [16%] 13%
7% 7%
0%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Oct
2021
Capesize Ordering (100,000 + dwt) Total Bulk Fleet Ordering
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	ORDERBOOK AS % OF EXISTING FLEET	AVERAGE AGE	OVER 20 YEARS	OLD	JAN-OCT 2021 SCRAPPING AS % OF EXISTING FLEET	JAN-OCT 2021 SCRAPPING AS % OF EXISTING FLEET
Handysize (10,000 - 40,000 dwt)	5%	12.2	13%		0.45%
Handymax (incl. Supramax & Ultramax)	6%	10.6	8%		0.27%
(40,000 - 65,000 dwt)
Panamax (incl, Kamsarmax) (65,000 - 100,000 dwt)	8%	10.7	11%		0.25%
Capesize (100,000 + dwt)	7%	9.0	2%		0.83%
Total Dry Bulk > 10,000 dwt	7%	10.9	7%		0.52%

Source: Clarksons Platou

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2021 12月法人說明會 27

海岬型船隊噸位增長趨緩

Capesize Supply Development

Million DWT

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25.00
25 6.00%
20 18.13
4.00%
15
3.76% 3.98%
10
2.00%
5
0 0.00%
-5 3.21
-2.00%
-10
11.40
-15
-4.00%
-20
-25 -6.00%
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Jan-Nov 2021
Scrapping New Deliveries Net Fleet Growth
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Source: Clarksons Platou

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2021 12月法人說明會 28

新造船/二手船價格上漲

TYPE	TYPE	PRICE (IN US$ MILLION)	PRICE (IN US$ MILLION)	PRICE (IN US$ MILLION)	PRICE (IN US$ MILLION)	PRICE (IN US$ MILLION)
YEAR		2019	2020		DEC 2021
208,000 DWT	NB	54.5	52.0	-5%	66.5	28%
180,000 DWT	NB	49.5	46.5	-6%	60.3	30%
180,000 DWT (ECO)	5-YR	37.5	35.5	-5%	47.0	32%
180,000 DWT	10-YR	22.0	19.5	-11%	33.0	69%
176,000 DWT	15-YR	13.5	12.8	-5%	21.0	64%

Source: Clarksons Platou & Internal Assessment

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2021 12月法人說明會 29

公司概況

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公司簡介

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物流
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海運業務 ：

中國航運公司的核心經營項目，主要管理自有十艘海岬型散裝輪船隊，經營國際大宗物資運輸等多元化業務

內陸貨櫃運輸 ：

偉聯運輸是台灣規模最大貨櫃運輸業者之一，主要提供貨櫃內陸運輸之所有相關作業及服務

倉儲物流 ：

中航物流在北台灣擁有兩大貨櫃集散站，具有直通南北大港等優越地理位置，提供客戶貨櫃、貨物進出口的快捷服務

代理空運業務 ：

中國航運公司空運部為沙烏地阿拉伯航空在台灣地區客運及貨運業務總代理（GSA）

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2021 12月法人說明會 31

中航海岬型散裝輪船隊

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China Peace China Progress China Pride China Triumph China Prosperity China Pioneer China Fortune
中華和平輪 中華富進輪 中華榮耀輪 中華光輝輪 中華鴻運輪 中華先鋒輪 中華偉運輪
174,413 DWT 174,322 DWT 177,856 DWT 203,028 DWT 203,028 DWT 206,079 DWT 206,061 DWT
2005 2006 2009 2011 2012 2012 2013
2024 2024 2023 2023 2017 2017 2016
China Honour China Enterprise China Harmony
Newbuilding Newbuilding Newbuilding Newbuilding
中華名望輪 中華偉業輪 中華和諧輪
210,000 DWT 210,000 DWT 210,000 DWT 210,000 DWT
179,562 DWT 207,986 DWT 179,505 DWT
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2021 12月法人說明會 32

2021年前三季營收佔比

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海運業務 49%
內陸貨櫃運輸及
50%
物流業務
代理空運及
1%
其他業務
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2021 12月法人說明會 33

五年財務概況

單位：新台幣百萬元

年度	105	106	107	108	109	110年 1月至9月
營業收入	3,295	3,218	3,820	3,763	3,131	2,545
本期淨利(損)	48	98	514	324	329	775
每股盈餘(新台幣)	0.21	0.50	2.60	1.64	1.67	3.96
現金及約當現金	3,686	2,940	3,345	3,288	3,742	2,364
負債總額	11,148	10,652	10,237	10,022	9,734	7,791
權益總額	10,323	9,427	10,187	9,934	9,750	10,359
權益報酬率(%)	0.5%	1.0%	5.2%	3.2%	3.3%	10.3%
資產報酬率(%)	0.9%	1.3%	3.5%	2.5%	2.3%	5.9%
負債占資產比率(%)	52%	53%	50%	50%	50%	43%

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2021 12月法人說明會 34

歷年股利分配

年份	年份	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
現金股利/減資(新台幣)		2.00	1.00	1.50	1.30	2.50 *	* 0.50	0.50	1.60	0.80	1.60
每股盈餘(新台幣)		3.92	2.23	1.55	1.30	1.30	0.21	0.50	2.60	1.64	1.67
0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50	2.00 1.00 1.50 1.30 ~~0.20~~ 0.50 0.50 1.60 0.80 1.60 2.30 51% 45% 97% 100% 192% 238% 100% 62% 49% 96% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% Cash Dividend Caital Reduction Dividend Paout Ratio *

*本公司於2016年分配2015年現金股利為新台幣0.20元，另於2016年度為提升股東權益報酬率，辦理現金減資退還股東股款，每股退還新台幣2.30元，共計新台幣2.50元

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2021 12月法人說明會 35

附錄一：簡明資產負債表

單位：新台幣百萬元

資產		110.9.30	109.12.31	109.9.30
流動資產		3,736	5,152	4,722
不動產、廠房及設備		11,949	12,108	12,644
無形資產		9	10	10
其他資產		2,456	2,273	2,458
資產總額		18,150	19,543	19,834
負債及權益
流動負債		2,634	3,506	3,533
非流動負債		5,157	6,229	6,442
負債總額		7,791	9,735	9,975
屬母公司業主之權益
股本		1,975	1,975	1,975
資本公積		53	53	53
保留盈餘		9,061	8,606	8,622
其他權益		(750) (884) (851)
非控制權益		20	58	60
權益總額		10,359	9,808	9,859
負債及權益總額		18,150 19,543 19,834

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2021 12月法人說明會 36

附錄二：簡明綜合損益表

	單位：新台幣千元	單位：新台幣千元	單位：新台幣千元
	110年1月至9月	109年度	109年1月至9月
營業收入	2,544,707	3,131,115	2,338,990
營業成本	2,060,992	2,583,263	1,931,940
營業毛利	483,715	547,852	407,050
營業費用	304,838	376,341	290,823
營業損益	178,877	171,511	116,227
營業外收入(支出)	644,210	180,548	234,199
稅前淨利(損)	823,087	352,059	350,426
減：所得稅費用	48,355	23,020	18,093
本期淨利(損)	774,732	329,039	332,333
本期其他綜合損益(稅後淨額)	125,667	(355,480)	(316,211)
本期綜合損益總額	900,399	(26,441)	16,122
每股盈餘	3.96 1.67 1.71

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2021 12月法人說明會 37

附錄三：公司債明細

期別	106年	109年-1	109年-2
發行總額 (新台幣億)	8	15	10
發行期間	5 年期	5 年期	5 年期
到期日	111/4/10*	114/8/28	114/8/28
年利率	1.13%	0.64%	0.66%
付息方式	年付息一次	年付息一次	年付息一次
保證銀行	上海商業儲蓄銀行	兆豐國際商業銀行	上海商業儲蓄銀行

*發行總額中新台幣4億已於109年4月償還

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2021 12月法人說明會 38

免責聲明

The information and opinions in this report were prepared by CMT. Though the information herein is believed to be reliable and has been obtained from market sources believed to be reliable, CMT makes no representation as to its accuracy or completeness.

The material and the information contained herein are provided for general information purposes, and may not be reproduced without the written permission of CMT. CMT shall not be liable to the recipient or any third party for any loss, liability or damage, cost or expense including without limitation, direct, indirect, consequential loss or damage, any loss of profit, loss of use, loss of or interruption in business, loss of goodwill, loss of data arising out of, or in connection with, the use of and the reliance on the information whether in contract, tort, negligence, bailment, breach of statutory duty or otherwise, even if foreseeable. This disclaimer shall be governed by and construed in accordance with Laws of Taiwan, R.O.C.

We undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward looking statement contained in this presentation, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by law. In light of the risks, uncertainties and assumptions, the forward looking events discussed in this presentation might not occur, and our actual results could differ materially from those anticipated in these forward-looking statements.

聯絡資訊：

公司網站 ：www.cmt.tw

總公司：

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2021 12月法人說明會 39

感謝您的出席！

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