CEWE Stiftung & Co. KGaA — Earnings Release 2014

Feb 25, 2015

European Mid-Cap – Internet

Strong Photofinishing, but weak Retail

• Summary: CEWE has released preliminary results. Adjusted for changes in its reporting method, EBIT was in line with consensus, while EPS missed by 6% due to a higher tax rate. The Photofinishing and Online segments were in line or better than both expectations and company guidance. However, Retail's problems in Poland weighed on earnings and led to a miss versus our estimates. We adjust our model and reduce our EPS forecast by 8-12% due to Retail losses. We roll over the valuation and our new price target of EUR71 indicates c20% upside potential.
• Preliminary results: Sales of EUR524m (FX adjusted: EUR527.5m) beat our forecasts but were a slight miss versus guidance of EUR525m-540m and 1% below consensus. Reported EBIT of EUR32.6m includes taxes previously declared below the EBIT line. Adjusted for this, EBIT came in at EUR33.5m, in line with consensus and within the guidance range of EUR30m-36m. Adjusted for EUR0.9m in non-cash option-plan expenses and EUR1.3m Photokina expenses, EBIT came in at EUR35.7m, the same level as last year. Photofinishing and Online developed, respectively, in line with and ahead of expectations, but Retail was a disappointment, posting a -EUR2.9m loss versus a EUR0.1m profit in 2013. This is the main reason that CEWE missed our estimates. A higher tax rate of 32.4% versus consensus of 28% and our 29.5% led to an EPS miss of 6%.
• Photofinishing: The division had a strong Christmas, with 6.6% sales growth and estimated 10-12% EBIT growth in Q4 2014. Reported EBIT was EUR38.4m for FY 2014 (EUR39.5m in FY 2013). Adjusted for changes in taxes, Photokina and stock options, we expect a Photofinishing EBIT of EUR40m in Q4 and EUR41m for FY 2014. This is, respectively, in line with and slightly above our estimate of EUR40m.
• Online: Losses fell from -EUR4.3m in 2013 to -EUR2.9m in 2014. Growth slowed to 13% in Q4 2014 (20% in 9M 2014). We understand that the focus is on earnings (set to break even in FY 2015E or 2016E at the latest) and expansion beyond Germany. CEWE is well positioned to consolidate the market organically and via M&A given its strong balance sheet, in our view.
• Disappointing Retail (13% of group sales; online and offline hardware retail): Poland underperformed due to the failures of the old management. New management has cleaned up the low-margin wholesale business. We believe the focus is on improving the store set-up and network.
• Estimate changes: We adjust our estimates for Retail losses. We cannot exclude restructuring charges in this unit and model EUR2m-3m losses in FY 2015-16E (including restructuring). We cut our estimates slightly for Online, but still expect it to post positive EBIT by 2017E (EUR5.2m, or 10% of group earnings) and be the key earnings growth driver. We are in line with 2015E consensus, and 10% ahead of consensus for 2016E earnings.

Y/E 31.12., EURm	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
Sales	469	507	535	524	542	566	591
EBITDA	64	66	67	69	73	81	88
EBIT	30	29	29	33	37	42	49
Net profit	19	19	22	21	26	30	36
Y/E net debt (net cash)	-7	18	22	-20	-29	-46	-69
EPS (reported)	2.84	2.88	3.29	3.01	3.61	4.26	5.05
EPS (recurring)	2.84	2.88	3.84	3.01	3.61	4.26	5.05
CPS	8.58	7.27	9.16	8.06	0.71	9.78	10.55
DPS	1.40	1.47	1.50	1.60	1.75	1.95	2.31
Gross margin	63.0%	63.4%	64.5%	68.0%	68.3%	68.4%	68.3%
EBITDA margin	13.6%	13.0%	12.6%	13.1%	13.5%	14.3%	14.9%
EBIT margin	6.4%	5.7%	5.5%	6.2%	6.8%	7.4%	8.4%
Dividend yield	4.5%	4.7%	4.2%	3.1%	3.0%	3.3%	4.0%
ROCE	18.1%	15.5%	13.2%	14.3%	16.2%	18.1%	21.3%
EV/sales	0.4	0.5	0.5	0.7	0.7	0.7	0.6
EV/EBITDA	3.2	3.6	4.1	5.3	5.5	4.8	4.1
EV/EBIT	6.9	8.3	9.4	11.0	10.9	9.1	7.3
P/E	10.9	10.9	9.3	17.0	16.1	13.7	11.5
Cash flow RoEV	12.3%	11.3%	9.9%	7.6%	7.1%	9.2%	11.4%

Source: Company data, Berenberg

Anna Patrice, CFA Analyst +44 20 3207 7863 anna.patrice@berenberg.com

25 February 2015

Current price	Price target
EUR58.24	EUR71.00
24/02/2015 XETRA Close

Market cap (EURm)	363
Reuters	CWCG.DE
Bloomberg	CWC GY

Changes made in this note

Rating:	Buy (no change)
	Price target: EUR71.00 (EUR69.00)

Estimates changes

	2014		2015E		2016E
	old	∆ %	old	∆ %	old	∆ %
Sales	519	0.9	544	-0.5	574	-1.4
EBIT	36	-8.8		41 -10.3	45	-7.4
EPS		3.44 -12.4		4.09 -11.8	4.63	-8.0
Source: Berenberg estimates

Share data

Shares outstanding (m)	7
Enterprise value (EURm)	361
Daily trading volume	19,927

Key data

Price/book value	2.0
Net gearing	-11.4%
CAGR sales 2014-2017	4.1%
CAGR EPS 2014-2017	18.7%

CEWE Stiftung & Co KGaA has been an Alpha stock since 4 July 2013. Please click here for the Alpha report.

European Mid-Cap – Internet

Current price	Price target
EUR58.24	EUR71.00		Market cap (EURm)	363
24/02/2015 XETRA Close		EV (EURm)	361
			Trading volume	19,927
		Free float		69.8%
Non-institutional shareholders			Share performance
27.4% Neumüller heirs			High 52 weeks EUR60.10
2.5% CEWE Stiftung & Co. KGaA		Low 52 weeks		EUR45.87
Business description			Performance relative to
Photo services provider			SXXP	SDAX
		1mth	8.8%	6.6%
		3mth	3.1%	-1.9%
		12mth	6.5%	9.3%

BUY Investment thesis

Cash flow summary

• 25 February 2015 CEWE is a high-quality company with a strong management track record. This is evident in the shift from analogue to digital and in the leading market position gained in the digital photofinishing and photobook market in western Europe.
• The Photofinishing division is set to benefit from an increasing share of more-profitable photogift products, supporting margin expansion.
• The Online division is a key growth driver, but is currently lossmaking, given its expansion and marketing costs. It is, however, set to break even in 2015E and contribute 10% to group EBIT by 2017E.
• Our valuation is an average of DCF and CFRoEV using 2016E.

EURm	2012	2013	2014E	2015E	2016E	EURm	2012	2013	2014E	2015E	2016E
Revenues	507	535	524	542	566	Net income	19	22	21	26	30
EBITDA	66	67	69	73	81	Depreciation	37	38	36	36	39
EBITA	38	41	41	45	50	Working capital changes	3	-14	6	-1	-2
EBIT	29	29	33	37	42	Other non-cash items	-8	1	0	0	0
Associates contribution	0	0	0	0	0	Operating cash flow	51	46	63	61	67
Net interest	-2	-2	-1	0	1	Capex	34	35	37	41	38
Tax	7	5	10	11	13	FCFE	17	11	26	20	29
Minorities	0	0	0	0	0	Acquisitions, disposals	-12	0	0	0	0
Net income adj.	19	22	21	26	30	Other investment CF	11	-2	0	0	0
EPS reported	2.90	3.29	3.01	3.61	4.26	Dividends paid	9	10	10	11	12
EPS adjusted	2.88	3.84	3.01	3.61	4.26	Buybacks, issuance	0	1	26	0	0
Year end shares	7	7	7	7	7	Change in net debt	25	4	-42	-9	-17
Average shares	7	7	7	7	7	Net debt	18	22	-20	-29	-46
DPS	1.47	1.50	1.60	1.75	1.95	FCF per share	2.60	1.65	3.71	2.87	4.13

Growth and margins

Growth and margins						Key ratios
	2012	2013	2014E	2015E	2016E		2012	2013	2014E	2015E	2016E
Revenue growth	8.1%	5.5%	-2.0%	3.4%	4.5%	Net debt / equity	13.9%	15.5%	-11.4%	-15.3%	-22.1%
EBITDA growth	3.9%	1.8%	1.9%	6.9%	10.2%	Net debt / EBITDA	0.3	0.3	-0.3	-0.4	-0.6
EBIT growth	-3.5%	1.0%	11.2%	13.0%	14.0%	Avg cost of debt	8.8%	5.5%	5.0%	4.0%	4.0%
EPS adj growth	1.4%	33.2%	-21.4%	19.7%	18.2%	Tax rate	29.4%	22.3%	32.4%	31.0%	30.0%
FCF growth	-43.2%	-36.8%	125.2%	-22.5%	43.9%	Interest cover	13.7	17.2	29.4	0.0	0.0
EBITDA margin	13.0%	12.6%	13.1%	13.5%	14.3%	Payout ratio	50.5%	45.6%	53.1%	48.5%	45.7%
EBIT margin	5.7%	5.5%	6.2%	6.8%	7.4%	ROCE	15.5%	13.2%	14.3%	16.2%	18.1%
Net income margin	3.7%	4.0%	4.1%	4.7%	5.3%	Capex / sales	4.6%	7.0%	7.0%	7.5%	6.7%
FCF margin	3.4%	2.0%	5.0%	3.8%	5.2%	Capex / depreciation	62.6%	98.1%	101.9%	111.4%	98.4%

Valuation metrics

	2012	2013	2014E	2015E	2016E
P / adjusted EPS	10.9	9.3	17.0	16.1	13.7
P / book value	1.6	1.7	2.0	2.2	2.0
FCF yield	8.3%	4.6%	7.2%	4.9%	7.1%
Dividend yield	4.7%	4.2%	3.1%	3.0%	3.3%
EV / sales	0.5	0.5	0.7	0.7	0.7
EV / EBITDA	3.6	4.1	5.3	5.5	4.8
EV / EBIT	8.3	9.4	11.0	10.9	9.1
EV / FCF	14.2	25.4	13.8	19.7	13.1
EV / cap. employed	1.8	1.8	2.3	2.5	2.4

Key risks to our investment thesis

• Q4 accounts for most annual earnings, thus presenting execution risk and making CEWE dependent on a single quarter.
• Additional investments in the Online division to support market share gains in a structurally changing printing market could push the breakeven point beyond 2015E and dilute margins in 2016E.

● A weaker macro environment and consumer spending in eastern Europe and Scandinavia, where CEWE is present with retail operations and pricing pressure on photo hardware. Underperforming Polish business has led to EUR3m losses in 2014E, and restructuring costs are not excluded.

Anna Patrice, CFA Analyst +44 20 3207 7863 anna.patrice@berenberg.com

European Mid-Cap – Internet

The table below details the preliminary results versus our and consensus expectations.

While we do not have consensus split by divisions, we believe CEWE has beaten consensus forecasts in its two core segments: Photofinishing and Online. This is positive. Retail presents a risk because the unit requires restructuring and must be turned around. However, it also offers an upside risk if the turnaround happens faster than we anticipate. The core segments, meanwhile, are doing significantly better than consensus expects.

We highlight, once again, the:

• very strong performance in the Photofinishing division, with recurring EBIT growth of 10-12% in Q4 2014 and a 5% increase in FY 2014E; and
• diminishing losses in the Online division, which performed slightly ahead of our estimates, thereby confirming that management is on track to reach break-even in FY 2015E or 2016E at the latest.

CEWE STIFTUNG STIFTUNG	Q4 Q4	Q4 2014 Q4 2014 2014	Q4 2014 Q4 2014 Q4 2014	Q4 2014 Q4 2014 2014	FY	FY 2014 FY 2014 FY 2014	FY 2014 FY 2014 FY 2014	FY 2014 FY 2014 2014	Reported vs Reported vs
in EURm EURm	FY 13 13	Reported Reported Reported	Consensus Consensus	Berenberg Berenberg Berenberg	2013	Reported Reported Reported	Berenberg Berenberg	Consensus Consensus	Consensus
Sales Sales	191.2 191.2	194.8	200.0	190.4	536.2	523.8	519.4	529.0	-1%
yoy	6.5%	1.9%	4.6%	-0.4%	5.5%	-2.3%	-3.1%
Photofinishing Photofinishing	146.4 146.4	156.0		150.9	375.5	386.0	380.9
yoy	7.7%	6.6%		3.1%		2.8%	1.4%
Online printing printing	18.2 18.2	20.5		21.7	59.8	70.5	71.7
yoy		12.7%		19.5%		17.9%	19.9%
Retail Retail	24.6 24.6	18.3		17.7	101.1	67.3	66.8
yoy	-19.5%	-25.6%		-27.8%	-9.9%	-33.4%	-33.9%
new EBIT EBIT	33.6 33.6	37.3			28.9	32.6
EBIT old reporting reporting	33.5 33.5	38.0	37.6	39.9	29.4	33.5	35.8	33.5	0%
margin	17.5%	19.5%	18.8%	20.9%	5.5%	6.4%	6.9%
yoy		13.6%	12.4%	19.2%		14.1%	21.9%
Photofinishing Photofinishing	35.8 35.8	40.2		40.0	39.5	41.5	40.0
margin	24.4%	25.8%		26.5%	10.5%	10.8%
yoy		12.5%		11.9%		5.1%
Online printing printing	-1.0 -1.0	-0.3		-0.6	-4.3	-2.9	-3.2
Retail Retail	1.3 1.3	-1.4		0.4	0.1	-2.9	-1.0
Net profit - reported - reported	27.1 27.1	25.8	27.3	28.8	21.6	21.4	24.4	22.8	-6%
margin	14.2%	13.2%	13.6%	15.1%	4.0%	4.1%	4.7%
EPS - reported - reported	4.12 4.12	3.70	3.93	4.13	3.29	3.07	3.50	3.30	-7%

FY 2014 preliminary results versus our and consensus estimates

Source: Company reports, Berenberg estimates, Bloomberg

Following our changes in estimates, we are broadly in line with consensus for 2015E as we incorporate ongoing losses in the Retail division (-EUR2m-3m losses in FY 2015-16E). We are, however, more optimistic than consensus about the Photofinishing and Online segments. For 2016E we are in line with consensus on the top line (possibly because we factor in lower Retail sales, and a higher share of sales coming from Photofinishing and Online) but 4% ahead on EBIT and almost 10% ahead on net income.

European Mid-Cap – Internet

Berenberg versus consensus estimates

	FY
Berenberg
	Last fiscal year year	Current Y Current Y Current Y	Next fiscal year Next fiscal year
Sales	524	542	566
yoy		3.4%	4.5%
EBITDA	69	73	81
yoy		6.9%	10.2%
as % of sales	13.1%	13.5%	14.3%
EBIT	33	37	42
yoy		13.0%	14.0%
as % of sales	6.2%	6.8%	7.4%
Net income	21	26	30
yoy		19.7%	18.2%
Consensus
	Last fiscal year year	Current Y Current Y Current Y	Next fiscal year Next fiscal year
Sales	524	546	564
yoy		4.2%	3.3%
EBITDA	69	75	80
yoy		9.8%	6.9%
as % of sales	13.1%	13.8%	14.3%
EBIT	33	37	40
yoy		13.8%	8.9%
as % of sales	6.2%	6.8%	7.2%
Net income	21	25	27
yoy		17.9%	9.2%
		Diff. vs. consensus
	Last fiscal year year	Current Y Current Y Current Y	Next fiscal year Next fiscal year
Sales	0.0%	-0.8%	0.4%
EBITDA	0.0%	-2.6%	0.3%
EBIT	0.0%	-0.7%	4.0%
Net income	0.0%	1.5%	9.9%

Source: Berenberg estimates

Sales and EBIT development by division, 2009-2017E

EUR m	2009	2010 2009 2010	2011	2012	2013	2014E	2015E	2016E	2017E
Divisional sales
Photofinishing	316.3	336.0	355.5	359.3	375.7	386.2	393.9	401.5	409.6
Retail	93.5	110.8	112.2	105.0	101.1	67.3	63.9	63.3	62.7
Online	0.0	0.0	1.4	43.0	59.8	70.5	83.9	101.5	119.1
TTL	409.8	446.8	469.0	507.2	536.5	524.0	541.7	566.3	591.3
Divisional sales shares
Photofinishing	77.2%	75.2%	75.8%	70.8%	70.0%	73.7%	72.7%	70.9%	69.3%
Retail	22.8%	24.8%	23.9%	20.7%	18.8%	12.8%	11.8%	11.2%	10.6%
Online	0.0%	0.0%	0.3%	8.5%	11.1%	13.5%	15.5%	17.9%	20.1%
TTL	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
Divisional sales growth
Photofinishing	-2.5%	6.2%	5.8%	1.1%	4.6%	2.8%	2.0%	1.9%	2.0%
Retail	-2.2%	18.5%	1.3%	-6.4%	-3.7%	-33.4%	-5.0%	-1.0%	-1.0%
Online	na	na	na	2996.8%	39.1%	17.9%	19.0%	20.9%	17.3%
TTL	-2.4%	9.0%	5.0%	8.1%	5.8%	-2.3%	3.4%	4.5%	4.4%

Source: Berenberg estimates

European Mid-Cap – Internet

Sales and EBIT development by division, 2009-2017E continued

EUR m	2009	2010 2009 2010	2011	2012	2013	2014E	2015E	2016E	2017E
Divisional EBIT
Photofinishing	26.5	28.5	30.5	32.0	39.5	40.0	41.6	42.5	43.5
Retail	1.7	1.8	2.4	1.7	0.1	-2.9	-3.3	-1.7	0.8
Online	0.0	0.0	-2.8	-4.8	-4.3	-2.9	-1.4	1.4	5.2
TTL	28.2	30.4	30.1	28.9	35.3	34.2	36.9	42.1	49.4
Divisional EBIT share
Photofinishing	93.9%	93.9%	101.4%	110.7%	111.9%	117.0%	112.7%	100.9%	88.0%
Retail	6.1%	6.1%	8.0%	5.8%	0.2%	-8.4%	-8.9%	-4.1%	1.6%
Online	0.0%	0.0%	-9.4%	-16.5%	-12.1%	-8.6%	-3.8%	3.2%	10.6%
TTL	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
Divisional EBIT margin
Photofinishing	8.4%	8.5%	8.6%	8.9%	10.5%	10.4%	10.6%	10.6%	10.6%
Retail	1.8%	1.7%	2.2%	1.6%	0.1%	-4.3%	-5.1%	-2.7%	1.2%
Online	0.0%	0.0%	-204.5%	-11.1%	-7.2%	-4.2%	-1.7%	1.3%	4.4%
TTL	6.9%	6.8%	6.4%	5.7%	6.6%	6.5%	6.8%	7.4%	8.4%
Divisional EBIT growth
Photofinishing		7.7%	7.1%	4.8%	23.4%	1.4%	4.0%	2.1%	2.3%
Retail		8.0%	31.3%	-30.7%	-95.5%	-3884.9%	14.4%	-47.5%	-144.8%
Online				68.3%	-10.4%	-31.4%	-51.8%	-195.9%	285.1%
TTL		7.8%	-0.8%	-4.0%	22.0%	-3.0%	7.9%	14.1%	17.3%

Source: Berenberg estimates

Valuation

We value CEWE using an average of DCF (EUR76) and CFRoEV (EUR67), to take into account its long-term potential alongside its short/mid-term prospects.

We roll over the valuation and use CFRoEV 2016E (previously 2015E). We also reduce our risk-free rate to 2.5% (previously 3%) to account for a lower yield environment, with a 2.2- 2.4% risk free rate in Germany over the last decade. Thus our WACC is reduced from 9.0% to 8.5%, given the company's net cash position, which is still rather conservative.

Our new price target of EUR71.0 indicates more than 20% upside potential. The company trades at 13.7x P/E 2016E compared to a 19% EPS CAGR 2014-17E and a 15% ROCE over the last five years, despite its investments in the still-loss-making Online division.

DCF valuation model

DCF model
EUR m	2015	2016 2015 2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	Terminal value
Operating profit (NOPAT)	25.5	29.5	34.6	37.1	38.8	38.9	39.0	39.6	40.0	39.9
Change working capital	-1.4	-1.9	-2.0	-2.1	-1.9	-1.8	-1.8	-1.9	-1.7	-1.1
Depreciation	36.4	38.7	38.5	39.9	41.2	42.4	43.5	44.8	45.8	46.6
Investments	40.5	38.0	36.5	39.9	41.2	42.4	43.5	44.8	45.8	46.6
Net cash flow	20.3	28.5 20.3 28.5	35.0	35.4	37.2	37.6	37.6	38.2	38.7	39.1	567.3
Present value	18.9	24.5	27.8	25.8	25.1	23.3	21.5	20.1	20.4	20.6	299.0
WACC	8.5%	8.5%	8.5%	8.5%	8.5%	8.5%	8.5%	8.5%	8.5%	8.5%
								Long-term growth rate Long-term growth rate			1.5%

DCF per share derived from		WACC derived from
Total present value	527	Interest costs, pre-tax	4.0%
thereof terminal value:	57%	Tax rate	31.0%
Net debt at year start	-20	Interest costs, after taxes	2.8%
Investments, minorities & others	-11	Required ROE	8.5%
Equity value	536	Risk premium	6.0%
No. of outstanding shares	7.1	Risk-free (10y. bond)	2.5%
Discounted cash flow per share (EUR)	75.8 75.8	Beta	1.0

Sensitivity analysis DCF
Long-term growth rate
	Fair value per share (EUR)			0.5%	1.0% 0.5% 1.0%	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%
	1.2 1.2		9.7% 9.7%	61	63	65	68	70
	1.1 1.1		9.1% 9.1%	66	68	70	73	77
Beta	1.0 1.0	WACC	8.5% 8.5%	70	73	76	80	84
	0.9 0.9		7.9% 7.9%	76	79	83	88	93
	0.8 0.8		7.3% 7.3%	83	87	92	97	104

Source: Berenberg estimates

European Mid-Cap – Internet

CFRoEV valuation model

CEWE Stiftung & Co KGaA
Fair value = (cash flow return / hurdle rate) = (adj. EBIT after taxes / hurdle rate)
Business year end: 31.12	2015 2015	2016 2016	2017
EBIT	36.9	42.1	49.4
+ Depreciation of fixed assets	28.4	30.5	30.5
+ Amortisation of intangible assets	8.0	8.1	8.0
- Maintenance capex	36.4	38.7	38.5
= Adjusted EBIT Adjusted EBIT	36.9 36.9	42.1	49.4
- Taxes (normalised tax rate)	11.1	12.6	14.8
- Minorities	0.0	0.0	0.0
= Adjusted cash flow after tax Adjusted flow after tax	25.8 25.8	29.5	34.6
Hurdle rate	7.0%	7.0%	7.0%
= Fair EV Fair EV	369 369	421	494
- Net debt (cash)	-29.3	-46.2	-68.6
- Pension provisions	18.1	18.4	18.8
+ Accumulated dividends outstanding	12.7	26.8	42.2
= Fair market capitalization Fair capitalization	393 393	475	586
Number of shares (million)	7.08	7.08	7.08
Number of options / dilutive shares	0.00	0.00	0.00
Fully diluted no. of shares	7.08	7.08	7.08
Fair value per share (EUR)	55.5 55.5	67.2 67.2	82.9
Current value per share	58.2	58.2	58.2
premium (-) / discount (+) in % (-) discount %	-5% -5%	15%	42%

Source: Berenberg estimates

European Mid-Cap – Internet

Financials

Profit and loss account

Year-end December(EUR m)	2011	2012	2013	2014E	2015E	2016E	2017E
Sales	469	507	535	524	542	566	591
Own work capitalised	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Total sales	470	508	536	525	543	567	592
Other operating income	23	30	25	24	25	25	26
Material expenses	174	186	190	167	172	179	188
Personnel expenses	109	122	130	133	136	140	143
Other operating expenses	147	164	174	180	187	193	200
Unusual or infrequent items	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
EBITDA	64	66	67	69	73	81	88
EBITDA margin	13.6%	13.0%	12.6%	13.1%	13.5%	14.3%	14.9%
Depreciation	26	28	26	28	28	31	31
EBITA	38	38	41	41	45	50	57
Amortisation of goodwill	0	0	4	0	0	0	0
Amortisation of intangible assets	8	9	8	8	8	8	8
Impairment charges	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
EBIT	30	29	29	33	37	42	49
EBIT margin	6.4%	5.7%	5.5%	6.2%	6.8%	7.4%	8.4%
Interest income	0	0	0	0	1	1	2
Interest expenses	1	2	2	2	1	0	0
Other financial result	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Financial result	-1	-2	-2	-1	0	1	2
Income on ordinary activities before taxes on taxestaxes	29	27	28	32	37	43	51
Extraordinary income/loss	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
EBT	29	27	28	32	37	43	51
Taxes	11	8	6	10	11	13	15
Tax rate	36%	29%	22%	32%	31%	30%	30%
Net income from continuing operations income continuing operations	19	19	22	21	26	30	36
Income from discontinued operations (net of tax)	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Net income income	19	19	22	21	26	30	36
Minority interest	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Net income (net of minority interest) income (net interest)	19	19	22	21	26	30	36

European Mid-Cap – Internet

Balance sheet

Year-end December (EUR m)	2011	2012	2013	2014E	2015E	2016E	2017E
Intangible assets	22	50	45	44	43	42	42
Property, plant and equipment	79	101	99	101	106	106	104
Financial assets	5	5	7	7	7	7	7
Fixed assets assets	106	156	151	152	156	155	153
Inventories	48	63	59	58	60	63	66
Accounts receivable	78	72	89	82	85	88	92
Other current assets	22	12	12	11	12	12	13
Liquid assets	31	13	14	48	42	53	76
Deferred taxes	5	7	7	7	7	7	7
Deferred charges and prepaid expenses	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Current assets	183	167	181	206	205	224	254
TOTAL	290	324	331	358	361	379	407
Shareholders' equity equity	121	130	140	178	192	209	231
Minority interest interest	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Long-term debt	17	23	7	7	7	7	7
Pensions provisions	11	17	18	18	18	18	19
Other provisions	14	12	10	10	10	10	11
Non-current liabilities current liabilities liabilities	41	53	35	35	35	36	37
short-term debt	7	8	29	20	5	0	0
Accounts payable	90	102	101	99	102	107	112
Advance payments	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Other liabilities	29	26	23	23	23	24	25
Deferred taxes	1	4	3	3	3	3	3
Other accruals	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Current liabilities	127	140	156	145	134	134	140
TOTAL	290	324	331	358	361	379	407

European Mid-Cap – Internet

Cash flow statement

EUR m	2011	2012	2013	2014E	2015E	2016E	2017E
Net profit/loss	19	19	22	21	26	30	36
Depreciation of fixed assets (incl. leases)	26	28	26	28	28	31	31
Amortisation of goodwill	0	0	4	0	0	0	0
Amortisation of intangible assets	8	9	8	8	8	8	8
Other	4	-8	1	0	0	0	0
Cash flow from operations before changes in w/c	56	48	60	57	62	69	75
Change in inventory	2	-15	4	1	-2	-3	-3
Change in accounts receivable	-6	6	-17	7	-3	-4	-4
Change in accounts payable	8	12	-1	-2	3	5	5
Change in other working capital	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Change in working capital	4	3	-14	6	-1	-2	-2
Cash flow from operating activities flow operating activities	60	51	46	63	61	67	73
Maintenance capex	27	27	28	29	32	30	29
Cash flow from operating activities after maintenance	33	24	18	34	28	37	44
Capex, excluding maintenance	3	7	7	7	8	8	7
Payments for acquisitions	0	24	0	0	0	0	0
Financial investments	0	-11	2	0	0	0	0
Income from asset disposals	0	1	2	0	0	0	0
Cash flow from investing activities flow activities	-30	-46	-35	-37	-41	-38	-37
Cash flow before financing flow	30	5	11	26	20	29	36
Increase/decrease in debt position	-7	-9	-1	-9	-15	-5	0
Purchase of own shares	7	0	-1	0	0	0	0
Capital measures	0	0	0	26	0	0	0
Dividends paid	8	9	10	10	11	12	14
Others	-1	-5	0	0	0	0	0
Effects of exchange rate changes on cash	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Cash flow from financing activities flow financing activities	-23	-23	-10	7	-26	-17	-14
Increase/decrease in liquid assets assets	7	-17	1	33	-6	12	22
Liquid assets at end of period	31	13	14	48	42	53	76

Source: Company data, Berenberg estimates

Growth rates yoy

(%)	2011	2012	2013	2014E	2015E	2016E	2017E
Net sales	5.0 %	8.1 %	5.5 %	-2.0 %	3.4 %	4.5 %	4.4 %
EBITDA	-3.5 %	3.9 %	1.8 %	1.9 %	6.9 %	10.2 %	9.0 %
EBIT	5.1 %	0.5 %	7.3 %	-0.3 %	10.3 %	11.8 %	14.4 %
Net income	35.4 %	2.1 %	13.9 %	-1.3 %	19.7 %	18.2 %	18.5 %
EPS reported	40.6 %	1.4 %	14.1 %	-8.3 %	19.7 %	18.2 %	18.5 %
EPS recurring	30.1 %	1.4 %	33.2 %	-21.4 %	19.7 %	18.2 %	18.5 %

European Mid-Cap – Internet

Ratios

Ratios	2011	2012	2013	2014E	2015E	2016E	2017E
Asset utilisation efficiency utilisation
Capital employed turnover	4.1	3.4	3.3	3.3	3.3	3.5	3.6
Operating assets turnover	4.1	3.8	3.7	3.7	3.7	3.8	3.9
Plant turnover	5.9	5.0	5.4	5.2	5.1	5.4	5.7
Inventory turnover (sales/inventory)	9.8	8.1	9.0	9.0	9.0	9.0	9.0
Operational efficiency
Operating return	55.3%	49.4%	46.3%	48.4%	49.5%	53.8%	58.6%
Total operating costs / sales	86.6%	87.2%	87.7%	87.1%	86.7%	85.9%	85.3%
Sales per employee	166.1	190.2	199.5	194.5	200.1	208.1	216.2
EBITDA per employee	22.5	24.8	25.1	25.4	27.1	29.7	32.2
EBIT margin	6.4%	5.7%	5.5%	6.2%	6.8%	7.4%	8.4%
Return on capital capital
EBIT/ Y/E capital employed	26.2%	19.6%	18.1%	20.7%	22.7%	25.8%	30.5%
EBIT / avg. capital employed	25.9%	22.1%	18.9%	20.4%	23.1%	25.9%	30.4%
EBITDA/ Y/E capital employed	55.4%	44.5%	41.5%	43.5%	45.1%	49.6%	54.3%
EBITDA / avg. capital employed	54.6%	50.2%	43.3%	42.9%	45.8%	49.6%	54.1%
Return on equity equity
Net profit / Y/E equity	15.3%	14.5%	15.4%	12.0%	13.3%	14.4%	15.5%
Recurring net profit / Y/E equity	15.3%	14.5%	15.4%	12.0%	13.3%	14.4%	15.5%
Net profit / avg. equity	15.3%	15.1%	16.0%	13.4%	13.8%	15.1%	16.3%
Recurring net profit / avg. equity	15.3%	15.1%	16.0%	13.4%	13.8%	15.1%	16.3%
Security
Net debt (if net cash=0)	-7	18	22	-20	-29	-46	-69
Debt / equity	-5.5%	13.9%	15.5%	-11.4%	-15.3%	-22.1%	-29.7%
Net gearing	-5.5%	13.9%	15.5%	-11.4%	-15.3%	-22.1%	-29.7%
Interest cover	21.1	11.9	15.9	20.7	46.8	108.3	171.4
EBITDA / interest paid	44.6	26.9	36.4	43.6	93.0	207.8	305.0
Altman's z-score	5.2	4.6	4.6	5.2	5.3	5.4	5.4
Dividend payout ratio	46%	51%	46%	53%	49%	46%	46%
Liquidity Liquidity
Current ratio	1.4	1.2	1.2	1.4	1.5	1.7	1.8
Acid test ratio	1.1	0.7	0.8	1.0	1.1	1.2	1.3
Free cash flow	1.6	0.9	0.5	1.2	0.8	1.0	1.0
Funds management Funds management
Avg. working capital / sales	8.0%	6.7%	7.4%	8.4%	7.7%	7.7%	7.7%
Cash flow / sales	5.4%	5.4%	5.1%	5.2%	5.3%	6.2%	7.0%
Free cash flow/sales	6.4%	3.4%	2.0%	5.0%	3.8%	5.2%	6.1%
Inventory processing period (days)	101	123	114	127	128	128	128
Receivables collection period (days)	61	52	61	57	57	57	57
Payables payment period (days)	190	201	194	216	218	218	217
Cash conversion cycle (days)	-28	-26	-20	-32	-33	-33	-33
Trade creditors / trade debtors	115.8%	141.6%	113.9%	121.0%	121.0%	121.0%	121.0%
Other
Interest received / avg. cash	1.4%	1.5%	1.0%	1.5%	2.0%	3.0%	3.0%
Interest paid / avg. debt	5.2%	8.8%	5.5%	5.0%	4.0%	4.0%	4.0%
Capex / dep'n	90.5%	62.6%	98.1%	101.9%	111.4%	98.4%	94.8%
Cost per employee	36	37	38	39	40	41	42
Capex / sales	6.5%	4.6%	7.0%	7.0%	7.5%	6.7%	6.2%
Maint. capex / sales	5.8%	5.3%	5.3%	5.6%	6.0%	5.4%	4.9%
Cash flow	25	27	27	27	29	35	41
Cash ROCE	21.8%	20.8%	17.6%	17.2%	17.9%	21.7%	25.3%
Free cash flow	14.8%	8.3%	4.6%	7.2%	4.9%	7.1%	8.8%

European Mid-Cap – Internet

Please note that the use of this research report is subject to the conditions and restrictions set forth in the "General investment th investment-related related disclosures" and the "Legal disclaimer" at the end of this document. of

For analyst certification and remarks regarding for For foreign investors and country g country- eign country-specific disclosures, please refer to the respecti specific please the respective paragraph at the end of this document. at end this document.

Disclosures in respect of section 34b of the German Securities Trading Act (Wertpapierhandelsgesetz – Securities – WpHG)

Company Company	Disclosures Disclosures
CEWE Stiftung & Co KGaA	3

(1) Joh. Berenberg, Gossler & Co. KG (hereinafter referred to as "the Bank") and/or its affiliate(s) was Lead Manager or Co-Lead Manager over the previous 12 months of a public offering of this company.

• (2) The Bank acts as Designated Sponsor for this company.
• (3) Over the previous 12 months, the Bank and/or its affiliate(s) has effected an agreement with this company for investment banking services or received compensation or a promise to pay from this company for investment banking services.
• (4) The Bank and/or its affiliate(s) holds 5% or more of the share capital of this company.
• (5) The Bank holds a trading position in shares of this company.

Historical price target and rating changes for CEWE Stiftung & Co KGaA in the last 12 months (full cov the 12 coverage) ast coverage)

Date	Price target -EUR	Rating	Initiation of coverage of coverage
27 February 14	63.00	Buy		28 June 11
31 March 14	69.00	Buy
25 February 15	71.00	Buy

Berenberg Equity Research ratings distribution and in proportion to investment banking services, proportion banking as of 1 October 2014 as

Buy	46.82	%	69.23	%
Sell	14.78	%	3.85	%
Hold	38.40	%	26.92	%

Valuation basis/rating key Valuation

The recommendations for companies analysed by Berenberg's Equity Research department are made on an absolute basis for which the following three-step rating key is applicable:

Buy: Sustainable upside potential of more than 15% to the cur Buy: rent share price within 12 months;

Sell: Sustainable downside potential of more than 15% to the c Sell: urrent share price within 12 months;

Hold: Upside/downside potential regarding the current share price limited; no immediate catalyst visible.

NB: During periods of high market, sector, or stock volatility, or in special situations, the recommendation system criteria may be breached temporarily.

Competent supervisory authority authority

Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht -BaFin- (Federal Financial Supervisory Authority), Graurheindorfer Straße 108, 53117 Bonn and Marie-Curie-Str. 24-28, 60439 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.

General investment- investment-related disclosures related disclosures disclosures

Joh. Berenberg, Gossler & Co. KG (hereinafter referred to as "the Bank") has made every effort to carefully research all information contained in this financial analysis. The information on which the financial analysis is based has been obtained from sources which we believe to be reliable such as, for example, Thomson Reuters, Bloomberg and the relevant specialised press as well as the company which is the subject of this financial analysis.

Only that part of the research note is made available to the issuer (who is the subject of this analysis) which is necessary to properly reconcile with the facts. Should this result in considerable changes a reference is made in the research note.

Opinions expressed in this financial analysis are our current opinions as of the issuing date indicated on this document. The

companies analysed by the Bank are divided into two groups: those under "full coverage" (regular updates provided); and those under "screening coverage" (updates provided as and when required at irregular intervals).

The functional job title of the person/s responsible for the recommendations contained in this report is "Equity Research Analyst" unless otherwise stated on the cover.

The following internet link provides further remarks on our financial analyses: s on http://www.berenberg.de/research.html?&L=1&no\_cache=1

Legal disclaimer disclaimer

This document has been prepared by Joh. Berenberg, Gossler & Co. KG (hereinafter referred to as "the Bank"). This document does not claim completeness regarding all the information on the stocks, stock markets or developments referred to in it.

On no account should the document be regarded as a substitute for the recipient procuring information for himself/herself or exercising his/her own judgements.

The document has been produced for information purposes for institutional clients or market professionals.

Private customers, into whose possession this document comes, should discuss possible investment decisions with their customer service officer as differing views and opinions may exist with regard to the stocks referred to in this document.

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The document may include certain descriptions, statements, estimates, and conclusions underlining potential market and company development. These reflect assumptions, which may turn out to be incorrect. The Bank and/or its employees accept no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss or damages of any kind arising out of the use of this document or any part of its content.

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Analyst certification certification

I, Anna Patrice, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers discussed herein.

In addition, I hereby certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report, nor is it tied to any specific investment banking transaction performed by the Bank or its affiliates.

Remarks regarding foreign investors foreign

The preparation of this document is subject to regulation by German law. The distribution of this document in other jurisdictions may be restricted by law, and persons into whose possession this document comes should inform themselves about, and observe, any such restrictions.

United Kingdom Kingdom

This document is meant exclusively for institutional investors and market professionals, but not for private customers. It is not for distribution to or the use of private investors or private customers.

United States of America of

This document has been prepared exclusively by the Bank. Although Berenberg Capital Markets LLC, an affiliate of the Bank and registered US broker-dealer, distributes this document to certain customers, Berenberg Capital Markets LLC does not provide input into its contents, nor does this document constitute research of Berenberg Capital Markets LLC. In addition, this document is meant exclusively for institutional investors and market professionals, but not for private customers. It is not for distribution to or the use of private investors or private customers.

This document is classified as objective for the purposes of FINRA rules. Please contact Berenberg Capital Markets LLC (+1 617 292 8200) if you require additional information.

Third-party research disclosures party research disclosures

Company Disclosures

CEWE Stiftung & Co KGaA no disclosures

• (1) Berenberg Capital Markets LLC owned 1% or more of the outstanding shares of any class of the subject company by the end of the prior month.*
• (2) Over the previous 12 months, Berenberg Capital Markets LLC has managed or co-managed any public offering for the subject company.*

European Mid-Cap – Internet

• (3) Berenberg Capital Markets LLC is making a market in the subject securities at the time of the report.
• (4) Berenberg Capital Markets LLC received compensation for investment banking services in the past 12 months, or expects to receive such compensation in the next 3 months.*
• (5) There is another potential conflict of interest of the analyst or Berenberg Capital Markets LLC, of which the analyst knows or has reason to know at the time of publication of this research report.
• * For disclosures regarding affiliates of Berenberg Capital Markets LLC please refer to the 'Disclosures in respect of section 34b of the German Securities Trading Act (Wertpapierhandelsgesetz – WpHG)' section above.

Copyright Copyright

The Bank reserves all the rights in this document. No part of the document or its content may be rewritten, copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the Bank's prior written consent.

© May 2013 Joh. Berenberg, Gossler & Co. KG

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Alexander Wace +44 20 3465 2670 +33 1 5844 9521 Mike Berry +44 20 3465 2755

MEDIA & TELECOMMUNICATIONS		David Mortlock	+44 20 3207 7850	Sebastian Grünberg	+49 40 350 60 763
Julia Thannheiser	+44 20 3465 2676	Richard Payman	+44 20 3207 7825	Alexander Heinz	+49 40 350 60 359	INVESTOR ACCESS
MATERIALS		George Smibert	+44 20 3207 7911	Marc Hosthausen	+49 40 350 60 761	Jennie Jiricny	+44 20 3207 7886
Jina Zachrisson	+44 20 3207 7879	Anita Surana	+44 20 3207 7855	Gregor Labahn	+49 40 350 60 571
TECHNOLOGY		Paul Walker	+44 20 3465 2632	Patrick Schepelmann	+49 40 350 60 559	EVENTS
Jean Beaubois	+44 20 3207 7835			Lars Schwartau	+49 40 350 60 450	Charlotte Kilby	+44 20 3207 7832
				Marvin Schweden	+49 40 350 60 576	Natalie Meech	+44 20 3207 7831
SALES		PARIS		Tim Storm	+49 40 350 60 415	Charlotte Reeves	+44 20 3465 2671
BENELUX		Alex Chevassus	+33 1 5844 9512	Philipp Wiechmann	+49 40 350 60 346	Sarah Weyman	+44 20 3207 7801

US SALES E-mail: firstname.lastname@berenberg-us.com

Member FINRA & SIPC Burr Clark +1 617 292 8282 Jessica London +1 646 445 7218 CRM Julie Doherty +1 617 292 8228 Emily Mouret +1 415 802 2525 Laura Cooper +1 646 445 7201 Kelleigh Faldi +1 617 292 8288 Kieran O'Sullivan +1 617 292 8292 INVESTOR ACCESS

Shawna Giust +1 646 445 7216 Jonathan Saxon +1 646 445 7202 Olivia Lee +1 646 445 7212

1/6
033	CRM
	Edwina Lucas
	Ellen Parker
	Greg Swallow
763
359	INVESTOR AC