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CASSIUS MINING LIMITED — Investor Presentation 2009
Feb 17, 2009
64667_rns_2009-02-17_98c78c40-9788-4afd-8c52-4be49971f46c.pdf
Investor Presentation
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ASX ANNOUNCEMENT 18 February 2009
CASE STUDY – CTL VIETNAM
AJM CTL Conference, Brisbane Australia
Gulf Resources Limited – Hanoi General Export and Import Corporation
Project Committee Members
Mr Vu Van Tien Mr Scott Reid Chairman, Geleximco Chairman, Gulf Resources Limited Mr Tran Thanh Quang Mr Fharhaad Ali Moosa Assistant to the Chairman, Geleximco Project Director, Gulf Resources Limited
Presented by:
Fharhaad Ali Moosa (Project Director) and Ron Higson (Hatch Director, Energy)
Abstract
Gulf Resources Limited (“Gulf”), a resources development and investment company with interests in Africa and Asia, in partnership with Hanoi General Export and Import Corporation, (“Geleximco”), one of Vietnam’s largest private industrial conglomerates with interests including mining, finance, energy and resources has identified an attractive CTL opportunity in Vietnam.
Vietnam has been in transition from a centrally planned to a market based economy since 1986, but despite many reforms, progress has been slow. Accepted into the World Trade Organisation (“WTO”) in 2006 and an ASEAN member since 1995, the country is viewed by most analysts as stable with an increasing level of international trade and agreements. A high percentage of scholars graduate from university, which bodes well for a competent and capable skilled labour force to manage and drive significant projects such as the CTL project.
The project is situated in the Hong Song (Red River region) delta south of the capital, Hanoi, where the concept is to use the largely lignite and brown coal reserves recently discovered in the delta to construct a proposed 60,000 bpd CTL plant in two stages.
The scope, size and complexity of a project of this nature led to an initial decision to involve a major engineering/technical group at an early stage and to this end the services of Hatch Limited (“Hatch”) have been secured. Hatch has vast experience in bringing complex and innovative projects to commercial realisation.
The project will be environmentally friendly in that it provides a cleaner/clearer energy source and cleaner utilisation of the country resources, as well as holding sound economic benefits for the host country and partners. The Government has backed the project so far noting that it will also benefit given that the project will be a stable, secure strategic oil supply for the country.
Hanoi General Export Import Joint Stock Company
Gulf Resources Limited ACN 115 027 033
Level 10 Gold Fields House 1 Alfred Street Sydney NSW 2000 ● PO Box R745 Royal Exchange NSW 1225 Australia t +61 2 8247 5333 ● f +61 2 9247 7722 www.gulfresources.com.au
64 Nguyen Luong Bang- Hanoi – Vietnam Phone: +84.4.213 8377, Fax: +84.4.562 5696, E-mail : [email protected]
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The current planning is that the project will be based on the commercially proven Fischer Tropsch (“FT”) process. An early decision was to remove the initially considered option of a methanol to gasoline (MTG) study, as the agreed view of the partners and engineers was that the CTL derived dieseline was the most cost effective and environmentally friendly fuel of the future.
The recent global financial meltdown and economic turmoil, which has dominated the headlines for the last months, has not detracted from the basic elements and benefits of the project. Despite these challenging times, project fundamentals appear to remain sound at this preliminary stage.
Introduction
Gulf Resources Limited (“Gulf”) is a resource development company that creates value for shareholders through the identification, acquisition and valorisation of resource focused projects, with a particular emphasis on regions where Gulf maintains relationships that provide a strategic advantage. With a team of experienced engineering, project management, legal, financial and resource specialist, Gulf fosters and seeks to develop projects of major significance to both the company and the countries in which Gulf operates. Gulf currently operates in Eastern Africa, Vietnam and Northern and Eastern Australia.
A core part of our strategy for sustainable success is to develop relationships, diversify our assets and to foster and secure intellectual capital. This approach forms part of a coherent and logical strategy, designed to capture value at both a corporate and project level.
The Vietnam CTL Project has been formulated with our partners Hanoi General Export and Import Corporation, (“Geleximco”) . Since its establishment in 1993 it has become one of Vietnam’s largest private industrial conglomerates with substantial interests across a broad range of sectors including mining, finance, manufacturing, commodity trading, agricultural processing, energy and resources.
Our strategic alliance and joint venture is directed at benefiting from the strengths and specific skills of both organisations and has already secured the high level input of Hatch Limited to undertake the technical and process studies required for successful completion of a project of this magnitude.
Vietnam Country Profile
With a surface area of 332 000 sq km, Vietnam is fairly densely populated with some 84,5 million inhabitants. The GDP given for 2007 was in excess of US$ 70 billion and a real GDP growth of 8.5%. Inflation prior to the world economic turmoil and financial meltdown was increasing dramatically to 26.8% in June 2008 (Austrade). A number of monetary and fiscal policy tightening measures were noted in mid 2008. The country was accepted into the World Trade Organisation (“WTO”) in 2006 and an ASEAN member since 1995.
Vietnam has been in transition from a centrally planned to a market based economy since 1986. Despite many reforms, progress has been slow, with a number of contributing factors including a weak institutional framework to manage the changes, a complex legal system, restricted land usage rights, poor control of the financial system and complex foreign investment laws.
Politically the country is viewed by most analysts as stable with a clearly managed development of the internal political changes and a sound foreign policy and an increasing level of international trade and agreements.
Over 55% of the country’s population is under 35 years of age. Some 54% of school goers finish high school, with 30% graduating from university. This bodes well for a competent and capable skilled labour force to manage and drive significant projects such as the CTL project.
The CTL Project
The project is based on a GRL - Geleximco 50:50 Joint Venture and a strategic alliance which has the full support of the Vietnamese government.
Situated in the Hong Song (Red River region) delta south of the capital, Hanoi, the concept is to use the largely lignite and brown coal reserves recently discovered in the delta to construct a proposed 60,000 bpd CTL plant in two stages. Coal tenement applications have been lodged and, based on the final confirmation of the mining concession areas, the final plant site can be confirmed.
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13 February 2009, GRL/Geleximco CTL Presentation, Brisbane, Australia
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As part of Gulf’s ethos, we recognize that all companies that achieve excellence in capital stewardship share two characteristics:
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The businesses have a high degree of confidence in their engineering organisation ~ in-house or contract;
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The engineering organisation sees itself as an integral part of the businesses it serves.
This confidence is needed for shaping a project to meet the business needs and acknowledging the scope, size and complexity of a project like this. We took an initial decision to involve a major engineering/technical group at an early stage and to this end we have secured the services of Hatch Limited (“Hatch”) to work with us on this project. Hatch has vast experience in bringing complex and innovative projects to commercial realisation. This experience in multi-faceted projects across the mining, energy and infrastructure sectors gives us the ability to integrate the efforts of mining, gasification, oil & gas and infrastructure specialist areas which often exhibit different approaches to project engineering. CTL experience includes projects for client such as Carbon Development Partnership, Fairbanks Development Corp, Sherritt, Energy Infrastructure Resources, All Seas and Altona Resources.
In terms of the project, our internal preliminary studies yielded a positive answer to the question: “ Is it an Investment Project?” Having passed the first hurdle, some elements of the project worthy of noting are that it will be environmentally friendly in that it provides a cleaner/clearer energy source and cleaner utilisation of the country resources.
Of importance to our partners and the government of Vietnam, without whose vital co-operation we would not be able to undertake a project of this scale and magnitude, are the sound economic benefits for the host country and partners. The Government has backed the project so far noting that it will also benefit given that the project will be a stable, secure strategic oil supply for the country.
The recent global financial meltdown and economic turmoil, which has dominated the headlines for the last months, has not detracted from the basic elements and benefits of the project. Despite these challenging times, project fundamentals appear to remain sound at this preliminary stage.
We have adopted a rigorous and stage-gated approach in moving the project forward, which briefly requires us to:
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Specify a logical sequence for planning and executing the capital project;
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At each gate, the project goes through a formal review. The review considers three primary questions:
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Does the project, as it is currently scoped, still fit within the organization’s strategic objectives?
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Is the project still economically viable based on revised information?
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Has the project completed all deliverables required for this particular gate?
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Deliverables must be completed prior to continuing work into the next phase.
With this background, it is intended to have the Pre-Feasibility Study (“PFS”) completed by the third quarter of 2009.
Geology
The geology of Vietnam is dominated by marginal fold belts (Triassic age) surrounding Yangtze and Indochina crustal blocks. Sediments derived from the rising continental areas during the Triassic period fill a number of deep troughs, such as the Red River Delta area.
The country is well endowed with a wide range of mineral resources, with perhaps the best known being the low sulphur high quality anthracite of the Quang Yen basin in northeast Vietnam where vast resources have been defined.
Recently, a large resource of sub-bituminous/brown lignite coal has been discovered during oil and gas exploration in the Song Hong (Red River) delta, south of Hanoi. The Red River Delta coals are generally lignite/sub-bituminous/brown coal and occur through a considerable depth range. Poorly reported historically, large resources are indicated at ±212 billion tonnes in these coal fields from work to date.
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13 February 2009, GRL/Geleximco CTL Presentation, Brisbane, Australia
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Current Status and Process Choice
The production of CTL fuels begins with the coal resources. Our partners, Geleximco, have lodged applications for various coal resources in the Song Hong delta and the detailed analyses of the coal reserves will obviously dictate the final planning of the process, technology employed and plant.
At this stage, based on the best available data and our research into the likely prognosis for the stabilisation of the recent economic turmoil, the project intends to be pursued in two stages (initially 30,000 bpd and then 60,000 bpd) production based on the commercially proven Fischer Tropsch (“FT”) process.
The project partners decided to remove one of the initially considered options, namely, methanol to gasoline (MTG) study, as the agreed view was that as the CTL derived dieseline was the cost effective and environmentally friendly fuel of the future and, of course, the considered Vietnamese market requirements is assumed to be dieseline and as China is also moving in that direction. Furthermore, the FT process makes dieseline, jet fuel (both equating to 90% of the total production) with high quality naphthalene (10% of total production) and would allow more degrees of freedom with the types of dieseline that could be marketed by varying the quantities of dieseline and jet fuel production. Supporting this argument for the FT selection is the view that transportation vehicles globally are moving towards the dieseline option, and also, the understanding that jet fuel (aircraft industry) is going to be here for a very long time before any possible fuel displacing/replacement technologies become economically viable.
There is a possibility that higher value products (dependent on market requirements) such as base oil could also be produced from the high quality wax from the FT process. The considered FT process would probably be based on available leading edge commercially proven European technology.
It is a given that CTL plants are very costly and have a fairly long construction and lead time (±5 ~ 7 years), however, there is anticipated to be a level of available expertise following the recent economic turmoil which could positively influence the evaluation and planning of the project. Various studies suggest that captured CO2 can be sequestrated deep underground (as a supercritical liquid) or sold to the oil & gas industry for use in enhanced oil recovery (“EOR”) to improve production efficiency of existing oil wells or in plastics manufacture.
The production of a stable secure local supply of vital fuel for the development of Vietnam is also a significant project advantage.
Conclusion
The opinion and findings of the project partners is that the current low oil price is widely considered to be an aberration. The futures market (NYMEX 5 year contracts) suggests that an oil price of >US$ 70/bbl may be more realistic and this assumption is supported by the expected increasing cost of extracting crude oil from existing wells.
It is important to note that depending on project scale, plant location and additional specific factors, the current estimated breakeven crude oil price for a new CTL plant is considered to be in the US$ 45 ~ 50/bbl range. Returns become extremely attractive to potential financial investors when crude oil exceeds the US$ 70/bbl level.
The recent sharp downturn in global economic activity may well cause capital plant construction costs to decline in line with CPI trends worldwide. Additionally, construction of plant during a recessionary period displays potentially definite financial and other resource application advantages to profit during economic recovery and growth.
GRL and Geleximco remain optimistic on the viability and robustness of the Vietnamese CTL project in the longer term given the dynamics of the world economy, significant coal resources, country competitiveness, geographical proximity and security of liquid oil supply ensuring sustainability in economic growth for a leading Asian “tiger”.
Brisbane, Australia February 2009
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13 February 2009, GRL/Geleximco CTL Presentation, Brisbane, Australia
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AJM CTL CONFERENCE
Brisbane, Australia ~ February 2009
PROJECT COMMITTEE MEMBERS
Mr Vu Van Tien Mr Scott Reid
Chairman, Geleximco Chairman, Gulf Resources Ltd
Mr Tran Thanh Quang Mr Fharhaad Ali Moosa
Assistant to the Chairman, Geleximco Project Director, Gulf Resources Ltd
PRESENTED BY:
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Fharhaad Ali Moosa (GRL Project Director) Ron Higson (Hatch Director, Energy)
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Case Study ~ CTL Vietnam
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Players
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Project elements
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� Country profile
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� Geology
� Engineering partner
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� Process
� EIA
� Economics
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WHO IS GULF RESOURCES?
Gulf Resources Limited (“GRL”) is a resource development and investment company that crosses the divide between Africa and Asia
Gulf has established bases in Tanzania, Kenya and Vietnam and built a team of experienced engineering, project management, legal, financial and resource specialists
Gulf is set to identify and acquire, then foster and develop projects of major significance to benefit both the company and the countries in which it operates
WHO IS GELEXIMCO?
Hanoi General Export and Import Corporation, a member of the Hanoi General Export and Import Group (“Geleximco”), since its establishment in 1993 has become one of Vietnam’s largest private industrial conglomerates with substantial interests across a broad range of sectors including mining, finance, manufacturing, commodity trading, agricultural processing, energy and resources
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Vietnam Country Profile
� CPI (May 2008) > 25% ( Note : Sep 2007 9%)
� GDP 2007 >US$ 70 billion
� GDP per capita ±US$ 818
� Real GDP growth 8.5%
� Population ±84 million
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� WTO member since 2006
� ASEAN member since 1995
� Japan is currently a major trading partner
The VIETNAM Project
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� GRL ‐ Geleximco 50:50 JV
� Proposal 60,000 bpd CTL plant
� Hatch Limited secured
� Red River Basin coal
� Coal tenement applications lodged
� Pre Feasibility Study Q3 2009
� Government backed project
� Will be a secure strategic oil supply
for the country
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LOCATION
Red River Delta
South China Sea
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GEOLOGY
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Geology dominated by marginal fold belts (Triassic age) surrounding Yangtze and Indochina crustal blocks
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The folding occurred during the late‐hercynian (early Triassic) period, mostly continental sediments
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Country is well endowed with a wide range of mineral resources
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Vast anthracite resources in Quang Yen basin in northeast Vietnam
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Recently, a large resource of sub‐bituminous/brown coal has been discovered during oil and gas exploration in the Song Hong (Red River) delta, south of Hanoi
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GEOLOGY
Red River Delta
Quaternary trough
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GEOLOGY
- Red River Delta coals are generally lignite
/ sub‐bituminous/brown coal
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Considerable depth range
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Poorly explored to date, but large
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resource estimated at ±212 billion tonnes
in‐situ given by historical work to date
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Hatch’s Global Operations
9000 staff – November 2008
Canada
•• Calgary, AlbertaHamilton, Ontario
• Montreal, Quebec
•• Niagara Falls, OntarioSaskatoon, Saskatchewan
3650 •••• Sorel-Tracy, QuebecSt. John’s, NewfoundlandSudbury, OntarioToronto, Ontario Europe •• London, EnglandMoscow, Russia China •• BeijingShanghai
• Vancouver, British Columbia
• Winnipeg, Manitoba 50 100
USA
• Boston, Massachusetts
• Buffalo, New York
•••••• Denver, ColoradoPittsburgh, PennsylvaniaCleveland, OhioMillburn, New JerseyNew York, New YorkSacramento, California Abu Dhabi, • UAE India • New Delhi Malaysia • Kuala Lumpur
••• San Diego, CaliforniaSan Francisco, CaliforniaSeattle, Washington South America ••• Antofagasta, ChileSantiago, ChileBelo Horizonte, Brazil South Africa • Johannesburg Australia ••••• GladstoneBrisbaneMackayMelbourneNewcastle ••••• WhyallaPerthSydneyTownsville Wollongong
1350 •• São Luís, BrazilSão Paulo, Brazil 1350
• Lima, Peru 2500
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Hatch’s Gasification & CTL Expertise
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Coal mining and handling
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Gasification plants
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Metallurgical process plants
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Specialized know‐how for solids handling (feed systems), slag quenching / de‐watering, oxygen plants & off‐gas handling
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Technology supplier for high temperature smelting furnaces & fluid bed reactors
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Many similarities between gasification & metallurgical plants
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� Water treatment
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CO2 sequestration / Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR)
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Thermal power plants (re IGCC)
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Downstream petrochemical processing (re CTL)
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Engineering, procurement, project & construction management
Source: Hatch
| Coal‐to‐Liquids Experience Client Project Location Hatch Services Date Carbon Development Partnership CTL / MTG Alberta, Canada Preliminary engineering of commercial plant. In-Progress Confidential CTL / SNG and Chemicals USA Preliminary engineering of commercial plant. 2008 Fairbanks Development Corp. Coal-to-Liquids Study Fairbanks, Alaska, USA Technology Selection Study and Preliminary Engineering for CTL plus power and distributed heat application. 2008 Sherritt Coal-to-Liquids Consulting Alberta, Canada Consulting on F-T technology selection and plant performance estimates. 2008 Confidential CTL USA Conceptual study and technology selection. 2007 Energy Infrastructure Resources Gas-to-Liquids Consulting Queensland, Australia Peer review of capital and operating cost estimates. 2007 All Seas CTL Moscow, Russia Technical review of novel coal gasification and Fischer-Tropsch synthetic fuel production concepts. 2007 Altona Resources CTL South Australia Technical Advisor to client and financiers. 2007 Source: Hatch |
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What is Project LifeCycle?
� A project delivery methodology used successfully by Hatch for more than 50 years to provide clients with innovative technology solutions
� Development planning
� End in mind
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� A gated, risk‐managed process beginning with the Business Case of the Client, through project set‐up, implementation and turnover to operations
Source: Hatch
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The Process – Front‐End Loading (FEL) Phases
INTENSIVE FOCUS HERE FOR COMPLETE SUCCESS HERE
FEL 1 FEL 2 FEL 3 FEL 4
DEVELOP OPTION PROJECT PROJECT
APPROPRIATE SELECTION DEFINITION IMPLEMENTATIO
OPTIONS AND VIABILITY AND PLANNING N PHASE
PHASE
1 2 3 4
Conceptual Study Pre Feasibility Study Feasibility Study Execution
Source: Hatch
INITIALL CLIENT BUSINESS CASE START UP & COMMISSIONING
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FEL 1 FEL 2 FEL 3 FEL 4 LifeCycle Phases 1 2 3 4 FEL 1 � Technology assessments & options � Site selection analysis FORMULATE OPTIONS � Sustainability assessments � Environmental assessment � Conceptual layouts & general arrangements � First cost estimate & project schedule 1
- Initial gate review
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Conceptual Study
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- Qualitative risk assessment
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Source: Hatch
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FEL 1 FEL 2 FEL 3 FEL 4 LifeCycle Phases 1 2 3 4 FEL 2 � Project objectives set BEST OPTION � Preliminary engineering SELECTED � Hazards review � Firm process flow diagrams developed � Plant footprint and configuration determined � Budgetary procurement & overview plan for 2 global sourcing � Overview implementation planning � Preliminary cost & schedule Pre-Feasibility Study � Risk elements further defined � Second gate review Source: Hatch The Project is in FEL 1 with some elements in progress & a few preliminary FEL 2 work elements to be initiated
VIETNAM – the CTL Project
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Internal preliminary studies yield a positive answer to the question: “ Is it an Investment Project?”
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Environmentally it provides a cleaner energy source and cleaner utilisation of the country resource
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Sound economic benefits for the host country and partners
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Recent global financial and economic meltdown and
turmoil – despite this, project fundamentals remain sound
Project Description (FEL1)
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Technology selection & conceptual engineering of a syngas plant for a 30,000 bbl/d & 60,000 bbl/d facility using Fischer‐Tropsch (FT) Synthesis to produce diesel fuel
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FT plant technology selection
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Conceptual design of CO2 capture & sequestration system
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Conceptual design for feedstock, product & waste handling including water treatment facility
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Technological, operation and environmental review & analysis
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CAPEX /OPEX
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Construction schedule
Source: Hatch
Synthetic Fuel Feedstock
- Carbonaceous (rich in carbon)
� 3 main feed stocks generally used
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Natural gas
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Coal
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Biomass
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Coal being a significant available resource in Vietnam will be the raw material used
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Although both the direct & indirect technology processes are proven, the suggested process will be the indirect route
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Syngas Production
� Feed stock prepared & fed to gasifier
� Reacts with steam & O2 at high temperature & pressure
� Syngas is produced made up of CO & H2 which together is
>85% & smaller quantities of CO2 & methane
� Inorganic material is converted to slag
� Other gases, sulphur & CO2 are separated & captured
� Captured CO2 can be sequestrated deep underground (as a supercritical liquid) or sold to the oil & gas industry for use in EOR or in plastics manufacture
� USA DOE study indicates that domestic oil recovery efficiency increases from 30% to 60% with implementation of CO2 EOR
Source: CTLC
Synthetic Fuel Production Process
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Source: CTLC
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Liquid Fuel Synthesis
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Purified syngas sent to liquid fuel reactor
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Catalytic process yields oxygenated & linear hydrocarbons with reaction water
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Synthetic fuel is environmentally more friendlier by emitting fewer GHG’s than petroleum fuels
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USA DOE estimates that the underground carbon storage capacity in depleted oil/gas fields equates to 125 years of current worldwide CO2 emissions
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Source: CTLC
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CO 2 Recycling (experimental technologies)
Current research suggests possible storage areas:
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CO2 could potentially be stored in stable chemical or biological substances
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Incremental enhancements to the carbon uptake of photosynthetic biological systems
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Harnessing non‐photosynthetic microbiological processes capable of converting CO2 into methane or acetate
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CO2 could feed growth of algae to create alternate fuel:
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Estimated that a 1,000 MW power plant could produce >40 million gallons of biodiesel & 50 million gallons of ethanol per year
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Cornell University researchers are developing a process for producing sustainable plastics & polymers that trap CO2
Source: CTLC
Synthetic Fuel & the Environment ~ Key Issues
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Cleaner & clearer fuels
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ULS fuels offer lower emissions of NOx, CO & hydrocarbons burning much cleaner
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Low particulate, low mercury & ULS fuels means improved health, reduce smog & tailpipe gas emissions, cleaner running mass transit commuter systems, no measureable toxic pollutants ~ all greatly reducing the release of GHG’s
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Synthetic fuels are also biodegradable due to their molecular structure & absence of benzene & toluene
Source: CTLC
Synthetic Fuel Production Decreases Reliance on Imported Oil
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Vietnam imports most of its refined oil needs
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Reduction in imported oil from politically unstable & hostile regions where oil reserves are concentrated
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Vietnam has very low % of known conventional world oil reserves but is dependent on imported oil for most of its transportation needs ~ suggesting vulnerability to future supply disruptions
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World economy is at continuous risk from oil supply disruptions, namely huge pipeline distances & shipping lanes exposed to piracy and terrorism
Source: CTLC
Source: CTLC
Promote Economic Growth & Security
� Across the world energy has become the linchpin of economic competitiveness
� South Africa has developed a CTL industry that provides 30% of its fuel needs
� Vietnamese economy stimulated through the creation of quality jobs, tax revenues & contribution to GDP
� Replacement of imported oil would reduce requirement for expensive foreign currency holdings contributing further to economic growth
Promote Economic Growth & Security
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New tax revenues & economic stimulus will benefit local communities:
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Increased tax base directly elated to the value of the project, royalties on coal produced, etc.
� Major capex project/investment
� Large temporary increase in employment during construction period for ±3 ~ 5 years (±2,500 jobs)
� Permanent increase in employment of skilled operations, maintenance, administration & management staff (±400 jobs)
� Economic growth in the community relates to many more homes, businesses & infrastructural requirements
- Need for research & engineering will mandate support of higher education, infrastructure growth, etc.
Source: CTLC
Current CTL Economic Conclusions
� Current low oil price widely considered to be an aberration
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Futures market (NYMEX 5 year contracts) suggests a realistic price >US$ 70/bbl ~ supported by expected increasing cost of extracting crude oil from existing wells
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Depending on scale, plant location & additional factors, estimated breakeven crude oil price for new CTL plant is in the US$ 45 – 50/bbl range. Return becomes attractive to investors when crude oil exceeds US$ 70/bbl
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Sharp downturn in economic activity may cause capital plant construction costs to decline in line with CPI trend
� Construction of plant during recessionary period, advantageous to profit during economic recovery & growth
Source: Hatch
Oil Prices: Historical & Future
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Source: Hatch
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Current Market Indicators
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Source: Hatch
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Typical Capital Cost Breakdown
Source: Hatch
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CONCLUSION
� GRL & Geleximco remain very optimistic on the viability and robustness of the Vietnamese CTL project in the longer term, given the dynamics of the world economy, significant coal resources, country competitiveness, geographical proximity and security of liquid oil supply ensuring sustainability in economic growth
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