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CANCOM SE — Regulatory Filings 2011
Nov 21, 2011
71_rns_2011-11-21_43421eac-9b58-4973-aa16-b05fa790525a.pdf
Regulatory Filings
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CANCOM AG Germany - IT Services
| Buy (old: Buy) | 15-November-11 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price target: EUR 16.00 | (old: EUR 16.00) | Tim Wunderlich Analyst |
||
| Price: | EUR 8.84 | Next result: | Q4 2011: tba | |
| Bloomberg: | COK GR | Market cap: | EUR 90.8 m | [email protected] |
| Reuters: | COKG.DE | Enterprise Value: | EUR 79.7 m | Tel.: +49 40 4143885 81 |
Roadshow Feedback Paris
We roadshowed CEO and founder Mr. Weinmann to Paris to meet existing and new investors. Questions centred around the following topics:
- Current business environment: Order intake in October and the beginning of November exceeded the company-internal expectations by a low double-digit amount as IT spending in Germany - which explains 91% of CANCOM's sales remained healthy carried mainly by SMEs investing in efficiency-raising measures. Unsurprisingly, the company has not seen any project delays or cancellations. CANCOM confirmed that H&A estimates of € 25m EBITDA in 2011E look very well achievable following the € 17.6m EBITDA after 9m '11 and the fact that evidence for a strong Q4 is mounting. This is important as Q4 may account for up to 40% of FY EBITDA.
- Prospects in Cloud Computing: Next to several smaller projects which were partly won due to the co-operation with IBM, CANCOM is working on six big projects with reputable names which are worth up to 20x the size of smaller deals each and were acquired within the last six months. These projects should not only throw off significant project sales but likely also recurring maintenance commission of up to € 80,000 per month per deal, in our view. The key differentiating factor of CANCOM's private cloud solution developed over several years is a standardised approach which makes the implementation of a Cloud solution much cheaper and faster for the customer.
- What to expect for 2012E: Investors were surprised to learn that roughly 75% of CANCOM's gross profit is quasi-recurring driven by a loyal customer base with average ties spanning ten years supplying a steady flow of project business year after year: even in 2009, which marked the worst slump in the company's history, sales were down by a mere 8% organically. Visibility on 2012E is strong especially as the majority of current service contracts run well into 2012E. With measures underway aimed at stripping out € 4m of costs by next year to further improve the company's lean set-up, CANCOM expects to need merely 0-3% of top-line growth to reach an EBITDA of € 27m in 2012E.
- Against this backdrop, the high valuation gap to Bechtle (25% on EV/EBITDA 2011E) and the low absolute valuation look unjustifiable. Remains a BUY; PT € 16.
| Y/E 31.12 (EUR m) | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011E | 2012E | 2013E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | 300.1 | 342.8 | 348.3 | 474.6 | 530.1 | 564.0 | 589.4 |
| Sales growth | 13 % | 14 % | 2 % | 36 % | 12 % | 6 % | 5 % |
| EBITDA | 8.0 | 7.8 | 9.5 | 19.0 | 25.0 | 27.7 | 29.0 |
| EBIT | 6.2 | 5.6 | 7.1 | 15.2 | 19.0 | 21.2 | 22.4 |
| Net income | 4.7 | 2.7 | 5.1 | 7.8 | 11.4 | 13.0 | 14.0 |
| Net debt | 6.2 | 3.9 | -3.5 | -0.9 | -11.1 | -21.7 | -33.3 |
| Net gearing | 17.2 % | 9.9 % | -8.0 % | -1.8 % | -18.3 % | -30.3 % | -40.1 % |
| Net Debt/EBITDA | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| EPS fully diluted | 0.45 | 0.26 | 0.49 | 0.76 | 1.10 | 1.25 | 1.35 |
| CPS | 0.40 | 1.05 | 0.80 | 1.25 | 0.94 | 1.29 | 1.40 |
| DPS | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 0.15 | 0.22 | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| Dividend yield | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 1.7 % | 1.7 % | 2.5 % | 2.8 % | 3.1 % |
| Gross profit margin | 28.8 % | 29.9 % | 31.0 % | 29.3 % | 29.1 % | 29.4 % | 29.5 % |
| EBITDA margin | 2.7 % | 2.3 % | 2.7 % | 4.0 % | 4.7 % | 4.9 % | 4.9 % |
| EBIT margin | 2.1 % | 1.6 % | 2.0 % | 3.2 % | 3.6 % | 3.8 % | 3.8 % |
| ROCE | 10.6 % | 8.9 % | 10.5 % | 19.5 % | 21.2 % | 21.1 % | 20.1 % |
| EV/sales | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.3 | 12.3 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 3.2 | 2.5 | 2.0 |
| EV/EBIT | 15.9 | 17.1 | 12.4 | 5.9 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 2.6 |
| PER | 19.0 | 29.0 | 18.4 | 9.6 | 8.1 | 7.1 | 6.6 |
| Adjusted Free Cash Flow | 5.8 % | 4.6 % | 6.9 % | 12.8 % | 20.2 % | 26.1 % | 33.2 % |
yield Source: Company data, Hauck & Aufhäuser Close price as of: 14.11.2011
Source: Company data, Hauck & Aufhäuser
| High/low 52 weeks: | 11.40 / 6.74 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price/Book Ratio: | 1.5 | |||||
| Relative performance (TecDAX): | ||||||
| 3 months | 21.5 % | |||||
| 6 months | 14.5 % | |||||
| 12 months | -0.1 % |
Changes in estimates
| Sales | EBIT | EPS | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | old: | 530.1 | 19.0 | 1.10 |
| ∆ | - | - | - | |
| old: | 564.0 | 21.2 | 1.25 | |
| 2012 | ∆ | - | - | - |
| 2013 | old: | 589.4 | 22.4 | 1.35 |
| ∆ | - | - | - |
Key share data:
| Number of shares: (in m pcs) | 10.4 |
|---|---|
| Authorised capital: (in € m) | 4.0 |
| Book value per share: (in €) | 5.9 |
| Ø trading volume: (12 months) | 60,000 |
Major shareholders:
| 90.1 % |
|---|
| 3.0 % |
| 2.5 % |
| 2.5 % |
| 1.9 % |
Company description:
CANCOM is Germany's 3rd largest independent system house operating a scalable eCommerce business.
Financials
| Profit and loss (EUR m) | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011E | 2012E | 2013E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales | 300.1 | 342.8 | 348.3 | 474.6 | 530.1 | 564.0 | 589.4 |
| Sales growth | 13.2 % | 14.2 % | 1.6 % | 36.2 % | 11.7 % | 6.4 % | 4.5 % |
| Increase/decrease in finished goods and work-in-process | 0.9 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Total sales | 301.0 | 343.1 | 349.3 | 475.8 | 531.1 | 565.0 | 590.4 |
| Other operating income | 1.5 | 0.3 | 2.3 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.3 |
| Material expenses | 214.2 | 240.7 | 241.1 | 336.3 | 376.5 | 398.9 | 416.1 |
| Personnel expenses | 59.0 | 71.0 | 79.2 | 97.0 | 102.0 | 109.8 | 115.4 |
| Other operating expenses | 21.2 | 24.0 | 21.8 | 26.8 | 29.7 | 30.8 | 32.2 |
| Total operating expenses | 293.0 | 335.3 | 339.8 | 456.8 | 506.1 | 537.3 | 561.4 |
| EBITDA | 8.0 | 7.8 | 9.5 | 19.0 | 25.0 | 27.7 | 29.0 |
| Depreciation | 1.4 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 3.6 |
| EBITA | 6.6 | 5.6 | 7.1 | 15.2 | 21.6 | 24.0 | 25.4 |
| Amortisation of goodwill | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Amortisation of intangible assets | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 3.0 |
| Impairment charges | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| EBIT | 6.2 | 5.6 | 7.1 | 15.2 | 19.0 | 21.2 | 22.4 |
| Interest income | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 |
| Interest expenses | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.7 |
| Other financial result | 0.0 | -0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.2 | -0.1 | 0.0 |
| Financial result | -0.9 | -1.2 | -1.1 | -1.8 | -2.6 | -2.5 | -2.4 |
| Recurring pretax income from continuing operations | 5.3 | 4.4 | 5.9 | 13.3 | 16.4 | 18.7 | 20.0 |
| Extraordinary income/loss | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Earnings before taxes | 5.3 | 4.4 | 5.9 | 13.3 | 16.4 | 18.7 | 20.0 |
| Taxes | -0.1 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 3.7 | 4.9 | 5.6 | 6.0 |
| Net income from continuing operations | 5.4 | 3.2 | 5.0 | 9.6 | 11.5 | 13.1 | 14.0 |
| Result from discontinued operations (net of tax) | 0.2 | 0.5 | -0.1 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Net income | 5.2 | 2.7 | 5.1 | 7.9 | 11.5 | 13.1 | 14.0 |
| Minority interest | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Net income (net of minority interest) | 4.7 | 2.7 | 5.1 | 7.8 | 11.4 | 13.0 | 14.0 |
| Average number of shares | 10.4 | 10.4 | 10.4 | 10.3 | 10.4 | 10.4 | 10.4 |
| EPS reported | 0.45 | 0.26 | 0.49 | 0.76 | 1.10 | 1.25 | 1.35 |
| Profit and loss (common size) | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011E | 2012E | 2013E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % |
| Increase/decrease in finished goods and work-in-process | 0.3 % | 0.1 % | 0.3 % | 0.3 % | 0.2 % | 0.2 % | 0.2 % |
| Total sales | 100.3 % | 100.1 % | 100.3 % | 100.3 % | 100.2 % | 100.2 % | 100.2 % |
| Other operating income | 0.5 % | 0.1 % | 0.6 % | 0.7 % | 0.4 % | 0.4 % | 0.4 % |
| Material expenses | 71.4 % | 70.2 % | 69.2 % | 70.9 % | 71.0 % | 70.7 % | 70.6 % |
| Personnel expenses | 19.7 % | 20.7 % | 22.7 % | 20.4 % | 19.2 % | 19.5 % | 19.6 % |
| Other operating expenses | 7.1 % | 7.0 % | 6.3 % | 5.7 % | 5.6 % | 5.5 % | 5.5 % |
| Total operating expenses | 97.6 % | 97.8 % | 97.6 % | 96.3 % | 95.5 % | 95.3 % | 95.2 % |
| EBITDA | 2.7 % | 2.3 % | 2.7 % | 4.0 % | 4.7 % | 4.9 % | 4.9 % |
| Depreciation | 0.5 % | 0.6 % | 0.7 % | 0.8 % | 0.6 % | 0.7 % | 0.6 % |
| EBITA | 2.2 % | 1.6 % | 2.0 % | 3.2 % | 4.1 % | 4.3 % | 4.3 % |
| Amortisation of goodwill | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % |
| Amortisation of intangible assets | 0.2 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.5 % | 0.5 % | 0.5 % |
| Impairment charges | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % |
| EBIT | 2.1 % | 1.6 % | 2.0 % | 3.2 % | 3.6 % | 3.8 % | 3.8 % |
| Interest income | 0.1 % | 0.1 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % |
| Interest expenses | 0.3 % | 0.4 % | 0.4 % | 0.4 % | 0.5 % | 0.5 % | 0.5 % |
| Other financial result | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % |
| Financial result | -0.3 % | -0.4 % | -0.3 % | -0.4 % | -0.5 % | -0.4 % | -0.4 % |
| Recurring pretax income from continuing operations | 1.8 % | 1.3 % | 1.7 % | 2.8 % | 3.1 % | 3.3 % | 3.4 % |
| Extraordinary income/loss | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % |
| Earnings before taxes | 1.8 % | 1.3 % | 1.7 % | 2.8 % | 3.1 % | 3.3 % | 3.4 % |
| Tax rate | -1.1 % | 28.3 % | 15.6 % | 28.1 % | 30.0 % | 30.0 % | 30.0 % |
| Net income from continuing operations | 1.8 % | 0.9 % | 1.4 % | 2.0 % | 2.2 % | 2.3 % | 2.4 % |
| Income from discontinued operations (net of tax) | 0.1 % | 0.1 % | 0.0 % | 0.4 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % |
| Net income | 1.7 % | 0.8 % | 1.5 % | 1.7 % | 2.2 % | 2.3 % | 2.4 % |
| Minority interest | 0.2 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % |
| Net income (net of minority interest) | 1.6 % | 0.8 % | 1.5 % | 1.6 % | 2.2 % | 2.3 % | 2.4 % |
| Balance sheet (EUR m) | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011E | 2012E | 2013E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Intangible assets | 25.7 | 28.3 | 31.5 | 42.5 | 38.9 | 38.1 | 37.1 |
| Property, plant and equipment | 3.0 | 5.4 | 6.5 | 9.7 | 9.8 | 9.6 | 9.5 |
| Financial assets | 0.2 | 3.5 | 0.2 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.2 |
| FIXED ASSETS | 28.9 | 37.3 | 38.2 | 55.4 | 51.9 | 50.9 | 49.8 |
| Inventories | 8.6 | 10.1 | 12.6 | 13.4 | 14.3 | 15.2 | 15.9 |
| Accounts receivable | 39.3 | 44.2 | 47.2 | 68.0 | 71.2 | 75.7 | 79.1 |
| Other current assets | 1.5 | 6.3 | 5.1 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 6.4 |
| Liquid assets | 11.8 | 18.3 | 25.8 | 31.5 | 41.7 | 52.2 | 63.8 |
| Deferred taxes | 3.1 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| Deferred charges and prepaid expenses | 7.4 | 2.1 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| CURRENT ASSETS | 71.5 | 83.4 | 96.7 | 122.0 | 136.4 | 152.3 | 168.0 |
| TOTAL ASSETS | 100.4 | 120.7 | 134.9 | 177.4 | 188.3 | 203.3 | 217.9 |
| SHAREHOLDERS EQUITY | 36.3 | 38.9 | 43.9 | 50.9 | 60.8 | 71.5 | 83.0 |
| MINORITY INTEREST | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Long-term debt | 16.1 | 20.3 | 21.6 | 29.0 | 29.0 | 29.0 | 29.0 |
| Provisions for pensions and similar obligations | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Other provisions | 7.9 | 3.2 | 4.3 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.2 |
| Non-current liabilities | 24.1 | 23.6 | 26.0 | 32.2 | 32.2 | 32.2 | 32.2 |
| short-term liabilities to banks | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| Accounts payable | 27.5 | 39.3 | 47.9 | 64.4 | 65.4 | 69.5 | 72.7 |
| Advance payments received on orders | 0.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| Other liabilities (incl. from lease and rental contracts) | 6.6 | 12.6 | 10.7 | 16.3 | 16.3 | 16.3 | 16.3 |
| Deferred taxes | 0.7 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 |
| Deferred income | 2.5 | 1.2 | 2.7 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 |
| Current liabilities | 40.0 | 58.1 | 65.0 | 94.2 | 95.1 | 99.3 | 102.4 |
| TOTAL LIABILITIES AND SHAREHOLDERS EQUITY | 100.4 | 120.7 | 134.9 | 177.4 | 188.3 | 203.3 | 217.9 |
| Balance sheet (common size) | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011E | 2012E | 2013E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Intangible assets | 25.6 % | 23.5 % | 23.4 % | 24.0 % | 20.7 % | 18.8 % | 17.0 % |
| Property, plant and equipment | 3.0 % | 4.5 % | 4.8 % | 5.5 % | 5.2 % | 4.7 % | 4.4 % |
| Financial assets | 0.2 % | 2.9 % | 0.1 % | 1.8 % | 1.7 % | 1.6 % | 1.5 % |
| FIXED ASSETS | 28.8 % | 30.9 % | 28.3 % | 31.2 % | 27.6 % | 25.1 % | 22.9 % |
| Inventories | 8.5 % | 8.4 % | 9.3 % | 7.5 % | 7.6 % | 7.5 % | 7.3 % |
| Accounts receivable | 39.1 % | 36.6 % | 35.0 % | 38.3 % | 37.8 % | 37.2 % | 36.3 % |
| Other current assets | 1.5 % | 5.2 % | 3.8 % | 3.6 % | 3.4 % | 3.2 % | 3.0 % |
| Liquid assets | 11.7 % | 15.1 % | 19.2 % | 17.7 % | 22.1 % | 25.7 % | 29.3 % |
| Deferred taxes | 3.1 % | 2.1 % | 1.9 % | 0.4 % | 0.4 % | 0.3 % | 0.3 % |
| Deferred charges and prepaid expenses | 7.3 % | 1.7 % | 2.5 % | 1.1 % | 1.1 % | 1.0 % | 0.9 % |
| CURRENT ASSETS | 71.2 % | 69.1 % | 71.7 % | 68.8 % | 72.4 % | 74.9 % | 77.1 % |
| TOTAL ASSETS | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % |
| SHAREHOLDERS EQUITY | 36.1 % | 32.3 % | 32.5 % | 28.7 % | 32.3 % | 35.2 % | 38.1 % |
| MINORITY INTEREST | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.1 % | 0.1 % | 0.1 % |
| Long-term debt | 16.0 % | 16.9 % | 16.0 % | 16.3 % | 15.4 % | 14.2 % | 13.3 % |
| Provisions for pensions and similar obligations | 0.2 % | 0.1 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % |
| Other provisions | 7.9 % | 2.6 % | 3.2 % | 1.8 % | 1.7 % | 1.6 % | 1.5 % |
| Non-current liabilities | 24.0 % | 19.6 % | 19.3 % | 18.2 % | 17.1 % | 15.9 % | 14.8 % |
| short-term liabilities to banks | 1.9 % | 1.5 % | 0.5 % | 0.9 % | 0.9 % | 0.8 % | 0.7 % |
| Accounts payable | 27.4 % | 32.5 % | 35.5 % | 36.3 % | 34.7 % | 34.2 % | 33.4 % |
| Advance payments received on orders | 0.8 % | 1.6 % | 0.8 % | 0.9 % | 0.8 % | 0.8 % | 0.7 % |
| Other liabilities (incl. from lease and rental contracts) | 6.6 % | 10.4 % | 7.9 % | 9.2 % | 8.6 % | 8.0 % | 7.5 % |
| Deferred taxes | 0.7 % | 1.1 % | 1.5 % | 2.4 % | 2.3 % | 2.1 % | 2.0 % |
| Deferred income | 2.5 % | 1.0 % | 2.0 % | 3.4 % | 3.2 % | 3.0 % | 2.8 % |
| Current liabilities | 39.9 % | 48.2 % | 48.2 % | 53.1 % | 50.5 % | 48.8 % | 47.0 % |
| TOTAL LIABILITIES AND SHAREHOLDERS EQUITY | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % |
| Cash flow statement (EUR m) | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011E | 2012E | 2013E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net profit/loss | 5.2 | 2.7 | 5.1 | 7.9 | 11.5 | 13.1 | 14.0 |
| Depreciation of fixed assets (incl. leases) | 1.4 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 3.6 |
| Amortisation of goodwill | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Amortisation of intangible assets | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 3.0 |
| Others | 0.0 | -10.8 | -0.6 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Cash flow from operations before changes in w/c | 7.0 | -6.0 | 6.9 | 14.7 | 17.5 | 19.6 | 20.6 |
| Increase/decrease in inventory | 0.2 | 0.9 | -0.9 | 0.3 | -1.0 | -0.9 | -0.7 |
| Increase/decrease in accounts receivable | -3.5 | 4.4 | 0.8 | -15.2 | -3.2 | -4.5 | -3.4 |
| Increase/decrease in accounts payable | 1.3 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 17.1 | 0.9 | 4.2 | 3.1 |
| Increase/decrease in other working capital positions | 1.0 | 9.5 | 1.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Increase/decrease in working capital | -1.1 | 19.0 | 3.8 | 2.2 | -3.2 | -1.3 | -1.0 |
| Cash flow from operating activities | 6.0 | 13.1 | 10.7 | 16.9 | 14.3 | 18.3 | 19.7 |
| CAPEX | 4.2 | 3.0 | 4.7 | 8.1 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 |
| Payments for acquisitions | 4.7 | 6.6 | 0.4 | 10.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Financial investments | -0.1 | -0.3 | -0.2 | -0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Income from asset disposals | 3.5 | 8.1 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Cash flow from investing activities | -5.4 | -1.2 | -2.6 | -17.3 | -2.5 | -5.5 | -5.5 |
| Cash flow before financing | 0.6 | 11.9 | 8.0 | -0.4 | 11.8 | 2.3 | 2.6 |
| Increase/decrease in debt position | 4.8 | -3.5 | 0.1 | 8.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Purchase of own shares | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | -0.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Capital measures | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Dividends paid | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 2.6 |
| Others | -0.8 | -1.0 | -1.0 | -1.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Effects of exchange rate changes on cash | -0.2 | -0.3 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Cash flow from financing activities | 4.0 | -4.5 | -1.1 | 5.9 | -1.5 | -2.3 | -2.6 |
| Increase/decrease in liquid assets | 4.5 | 7.1 | 7.0 | 5.6 | 10.2 | n/a | n/a |
| Liquid assets at end of period | 11.8 | 18.9 | 25.8 | 31.5 | 41.7 | 52.2 | 63.8 |
Source: Company data, Hauck & Aufhäuser
| Regional split (EUR m) | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011E | 2012E | 2013E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Domestic | 0.0 | 322.2 | 386.1 | 491.6 | 471.8 | 502.0 | 524.6 |
| yoy change | n/a | n/a | 19.8 % | 27.3 % | -4.0 % | 6.4 % | 4.5 % |
| Rest of Europe | 0.0 | 0.0 | 36.4 | 57.7 | 58.3 | 62.0 | 64.8 |
| yoy change | n/a | n/a | n/a | 58.5 % | 1.1 % | 6.4 % | 4.5 % |
| NAFTA | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| yoy change | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Asia Pacific | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| yoy change | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Rest of world | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| yoy change | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| TTL | 0.0 | 322.2 | 422.5 | 474.6 | 530.1 | 564.0 | 589.4 |
| yoy change | n/a | n/a | 31.1 % | 12.3 % | 11.7 % | 6.4 % | 4.5 % |
| Key ratios (EUR m) | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011E | 2012E | 2013E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P&L growth analysis | |||||||
| Sales growth | 13.2 % | 14.2 % | 1.6 % | 36.2 % | 11.7 % | 6.4 % | 4.5 % |
| EBITDA growth | 38.7 % | -2.7 % | 21.3 % | 100.7 % | 31.6 % | 10.8 % | 4.7 % |
| EBIT growth | 44.7 % | -8.8 % | 26.0 % | 114.0 % | 25.4 % | 11.5 % | 5.7 % |
| EPS growth | 85.5 % | -42.4 % | 87.8 % | 55.5 % | 44.8 % | 13.9 % | 7.9 % |
| Efficiency | |||||||
| Total operating costs / sales | 97.6 % | 97.8 % | 97.6 % | 96.3 % | 95.5 % | 95.3 % | 95.2 % |
| Sales per employee | 233.3 | 215.9 | 196.0 | 243.4 | 256.1 | 262.3 | 266.4 |
| EBITDA per employee | 6.2 | 4.9 | 5.3 | 9.7 | 12.1 | 12.9 | 13.1 |
| Balance sheet analysis | |||||||
| Avg. working capital / sales | 6.2 % | 4.8 % | 3.4 % | 2.8 % | 3.2 % | 3.4 % | 3.5 % |
| Inventory turnover (sales/inventory) | 35.1 | 34.0 | 27.7 | 35.5 | 37.0 | 37.0 | 37.0 |
| Trade debtors in days of sales | 47.8 | 47.0 | 49.5 | 52.3 | 49.0 | 49.0 | 49.0 |
| A/P turnover [(A/P*365)/sales] | 33.5 | 41.8 | 50.1 | 49.6 | 45.0 | 45.0 | 45.0 |
| Cash conversion cycle (days) | 15.5 | 2.8 | -3.9 | -3.1 | -0.5 | -0.7 | -0.8 |
| Cash flow analysis | |||||||
| Free cash flow | 1.8 | 10.1 | 6.0 | 8.8 | 8.8 | 12.8 | 14.2 |
| Free cash flow/sales | 0.6 % | 2.9 % | 1.7 % | 1.9 % | 1.7 % | 2.3 % | 2.4 % |
| FCF / net profit | 38.0 % | 374.5 % | 118.4 % | 113.1 % | 76.9 % | 98.4 % | 101.0 % |
| FCF yield | 1.9 % | 11.0 % | 6.6 % | 9.7 % | 9.7 % | 14.1 % | 15.6 % |
| Capex / depn | 221.5 % | 122.1 % | 188.4 % | 206.6 % | 91.7 % | 84.6 % | 83.3 % |
| Capex / maintenance capex | 84.3 % | 114.9 % | 138.4 % | n/a | 76.1 % | 70.0 % | 66.0 % |
| Capex / sales | 1.4 % | 0.8 % | 1.3 % | 1.7 % | 1.0 % | n/a | n/a |
| Security | |||||||
| Net debt | 6.2 | 3.9 | -3.5 | -0.9 | -11.1 | -21.7 | -33.3 |
| Net Debt/EBITDA | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Net debt / equity | 0.2 | 0.1 | -0.1 | 0.0 | -0.2 | -0.3 | -0.4 |
| Interest cover | 6.0 | 4.0 | 5.4 | 8.0 | 7.1 | 8.0 | 8.4 |
| Dividend payout ratio | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 30.7 % | 19.7 % | 19.8 % | 19.8 % | 19.8 % |
| Asset utilisation | |||||||
| Capital employed turnover | 4.8 | 5.3 | 4.9 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.3 | 5.0 |
| Operating assets turnover | 13.3 | 18.6 | 20.1 | 18.9 | 18.7 | 19.1 | 19.4 |
| Plant turnover | 99.4 | 63.5 | 53.4 | 49.0 | 54.2 | 58.9 | 62.2 |
| Inventory turnover (sales/inventory) | 35.1 | 34.0 | 27.7 | 35.5 | 37.0 | 37.0 | 37.0 |
| Returns | |||||||
| ROCE | 10.6 % | 8.9 % | 10.5 % | 19.5 % | 21.2 % | 21.1 % | 20.1 % |
| ROE | 12.9 % | 6.9 % | 11.5 % | 15.4 % | 18.8 % | 18.2 % | 16.9 % |
| Other | |||||||
| Interest paid / avg. debt | 6.6 % | 7.0 % | 5.9 % | 7.2 % | 8.7 % | 8.7 % | 8.7 % |
| No. employees (average) | 1287 | 1588 | 1777 | 1950 | 2070 | 2150 | 2213 |
| Number of shares | 10.4 | 10.4 | 10.4 | 10.3 | 10.4 | 10.4 | 10.4 |
| DPS | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| EPS reported | 0.45 | 0.26 | 0.49 | 0.76 | 1.10 | 1.25 | 1.35 |
| Valuation ratios | |||||||
| P/BV | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| EV/sales | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.3 | 12.3 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 3.2 | 2.5 | 2.0 |
| EV/EBITA | 14.8 | 17.1 | 12.4 | 5.9 | 3.7 | 2.9 | 2.3 |
| EV/EBIT | 15.9 | 17.1 | 12.4 | 5.9 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 2.6 |
| EV/FCF | 55.2 | 9.5 | 14.7 | 10.2 | 9.1 | 5.4 | 4.1 |
| Dividend yield | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 1.7 % | 1.7 % | 2.5 % | 2.8 % | 3.1 % |
Disclosure in respect of section 34b of the German Securities Trading Act (Wertpapierhandelsgesetz – WpHG)
| Company | Disclosure |
|---|---|
| CANCOM AG | 2 |
(1) Hauck & Aufhäuser or its affiliate(s) was Lead Manager or Co-Lead Manager over the previous 12 months of a public offering of this company.
(2) Hauck & Aufhäuser acts as Designated Sponsor for this company or offers Equity Advisory Services.
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Historical target price and rating changes for CANCOM AG in the last 12 months
Valuation basis/rating key
Buy: Sustainable upside potential of more than 10% within 12 months.
Sell: Sustainable downside potential of more than 10% within 12 months.
Hold: Upside/downside potential limited. No immediate catalyst visible.
Competent supervisory authority
Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht – BaFin – (Federal Financial Supervisory Authority), Graurheindorfer Straße 108, 53117 Bonn and Lurgiallee 12, 60439 Frankfurt am Main, Germany
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