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CANCOM SE — Investor Presentation 2014
Mar 20, 2014
71_rns_2014-03-20_63691f3a-4b45-4353-80da-56cc0b6250d4.pdf
Investor Presentation
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CANCOM SE Germany - IT Services
| Buy (old: Buy) | 20-March-14 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price target: EUR 43.50 | (old: EUR 43.50) | Tim Wunderlich, CFA Analyst |
||
| Price: | EUR 36.17 | Next result: | Q1 14: 13.05.14 | |
| Bloomberg: | COK GR | Market cap: | EUR 528.6 m | [email protected] |
| Reuters: | COKG.DE | Enterprise Value: | EUR 466.2 m | Tel.: +49 40 4143885 81 |
Final Q4 figures and take-over of DIDAS; Introducing 2016E
As CANCOM had already reported preliminary figures for sales and EBITDA, final Q4/FY figures offered only limited additional insights.
- Q4 EBIT of € 6.9m was below our expectations of € 8.2m given higher-thanexpected purchase price amortisation (i.e. a non-cash item) relating to the takeovers of on-line and Pironet. However, no need to change estimates for 2014E: During the conference call, CANCOM indicated that PPA for FY '14 should be around € 8.4m, which is in-line with our expectations.
- Q4 net income arrived at € 4.1m versus € 5.6m expected, which is also due to the higher PPA.
- CANCOM proposes a € 0.40 dividend per share (vs. € 0.35 for 2012), in line with expectations and yielding 1.1% on the current share price. Evidently, CANCOM will rather use its cash reserve (eH&A: € 77m gross cash at the end of 2014E) to execute further value-accretive acquisitions.
During the conference call, CANCOM confirmed our expectation of more than € 50m EBITDA for 2014E (vs. € 33m for 2013). Notably, it expects to grow EBITDA by € 3m (i.e. an incremental improvement) thanks to the strong demand for its AHP cloud solution. The traditional IT Service business is seen to contribute an incremental € 1m to EBITDA. Additional EBITDA growth of >€ 13m should come from the acquisitions of Pironet and on-line Datensysteme.
On top of this, CANCOM announced the 100% take-over of DIDAS (pending supervisory board and antitrust approval), a traditional IT Services business with eight offices in Germany. The company re-sells hardware and software (c. 45% of sales), offers IT services (30%), and provides managed services/outsourcing (25%). The target generated € 56m of sales and € 1.8m EBITDA in 2013.
CANCOM expects to be able to raise DIDAS' profitability from c. 3% currently to 5%+ within 2-3 years thanks to economies of scale in procurement and logistics as well as synergies in admin (i.e. cutting out central functions, merging offices) – it has a strong track record in doing so. Also, CANCOM plans to use DIDAS' customer base and IT architects to cross-sell its AHP software, hence transforming the business more into the direction of high-margin cloud services. – continued –
| Y/E 31.12 (EUR m) | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014E | 2015E | 2016E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | 474.6 | 544.4 | 558.1 | 613.8 | 734.7 | 782.2 | 829.1 |
| Sales growth | 36 % | 15 % | 3 % | 10 % | 20 % | 6 % | 6 % |
| EBITDA | 19.0 | 25.0 | 28.1 | 33.4 | 52.9 | 62.4 | 74.3 |
| EBIT | 15.2 | 18.5 | 20.7 | 22.6 | 34.0 | 43.3 | 56.1 |
| Net income | 7.8 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 14.5 | 23.1 | 29.8 | 39.5 |
| Net debt | -0.9 | -18.5 | -29.2 | -62.5 | -65.7 | -87.8 | -120.0 |
| Net gearing | -1.8 % | -30.4 % | -36.3 % | -38.4 % | -41.1 % | -48.0 % | -55.8 % |
| Net Debt/EBITDA | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| EPS pro forma | 0.92 | 1.14 | 1.06 | 0.99 | 1.58 | 2.04 | 2.70 |
| CPS | 1.28 | 2.18 | 0.89 | 0.87 | 2.11 | 2.36 | 3.15 |
| DPS | 0.15 | 0.30 | 0.35 | 0.40 | 0.45 | 0.50 | 0.66 |
| Dividend yield | 0.4 % | 0.8 % | 1.0 % | 1.1 % | 1.2 % | 1.4 % | 1.8 % |
| Gross profit margin | 29.3 % | 29.1 % | 29.5 % | 30.2 % | 35.0 % | 35.2 % | 35.8 % |
| EBITDA margin | 4.0 % | 4.6 % | 5.0 % | 5.4 % | 7.2 % | 8.0 % | 9.0 % |
| EBIT margin | 3.2 % | 3.4 % | 3.7 % | 3.7 % | 4.6 % | 5.5 % | 6.8 % |
| ROCE | 19.5 % | 20.6 % | 21.1 % | 16.0 % | 17.8 % | 20.7 % | 24.1 % |
| EV/sales | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| EV/EBITDA | 19.5 | 14.1 | 13.6 | 14.0 | 8.7 | 7.1 | 5.5 |
| EV/EBIT | 24.4 | 19.1 | 18.5 | 20.6 | 13.6 | 10.2 | 7.3 |
| PER | 39.2 | 31.7 | 34.0 | 36.4 | 22.9 | 17.8 | 13.4 |
| Adjusted FCF yield | 3.1 % | 4.4 % | 4.1 % | 4.6 % | 7.3 % | 9.4 % | 12.5 % |
Source: Company data, Hauck & Aufhäuser Close price as of: 19.03.2014
Source: Company data, Hauck & Aufhäuser
| High/low 52 weeks: | 39.07 / 14.15 |
|---|---|
| Price/Book Ratio: | 3.2 |
| Relative performance (TecDAX): | |
| 3 months | 17.1 % |
| 6 months | 47.4 % |
| 12 months | 100.8 % |
Changes in estimates
| Sales | EBIT | EPS | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | old: | 734.7 | 34.0 | 1.60 |
| ∆ | - | - | - | |
| old: | 782.2 | 43.3 | 2.04 | |
| 2015 | ∆ | - | - | - |
| old: | - | - | - | |
| 2016 | ∆ | - | - | - |
Key share data:
| Number of shares: (in m pcs) | 11.8 |
|---|---|
| Authorised capital: (in € m) | 4.0 |
| Book value per share: (in €) | 11.1 |
| Ø trading volume: (12 months) | 60,000 |
Major shareholders:
| Free Float | 82.9 % |
|---|---|
| AGI | 13.3 % |
| Stefan Kober | 2.3 % |
| Klaus Weinmann | 1.6 % |
Company description:
CANCOM is Germany's 3rd largest independent system house operating a scalable eCommerce business.
The transaction will be paid for in shares. While the purchase price has not been disclosed, CANCOM indicated that even with the dilution the transaction should be earnings-accretive.
Our estimates will be adjusted for the take-over of DIDAS only after the final approval and the emergence of further details regarding purchase price and PPA. CANCOM remains a BUY with a € 43.50 PT based on DCF.
Financials
| Profit and loss (EUR m) | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014E | 2015E | 2016E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales | 474.6 | 544.4 | 558.1 | 613.8 | 734.7 | 782.2 | 829.1 |
| Sales growth | 36.2 % | 14.7 % | 2.5 % | 10.0 % | 19.7 % | 6.5 % | 6.0 % |
| Increase/decrease in finished goods and work-in-process | 1.3 | 0.9 | 2.5 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| Total sales | 475.8 | 545.3 | 560.6 | 614.2 | 735.7 | 783.2 | 830.2 |
| Other operating income | 3.3 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| Material expenses | 336.3 | 386.6 | 395.1 | 428.7 | 478.3 | 507.8 | 533.0 |
| Personnel expenses | 97.0 | 108.0 | 112.4 | 123.2 | 163.9 | 170.2 | 177.4 |
| Other operating expenses | 26.8 | 26.4 | 25.8 | 29.9 | 41.2 | 43.5 | 46.2 |
| Total operating expenses | 456.8 | 520.3 | 532.5 | 580.8 | 682.8 | 720.9 | 755.9 |
| EBITDA | 19.0 | 25.0 | 28.1 | 33.4 | 52.9 | 62.4 | 74.3 |
| Depreciation | 3.8 | 2.8 | 4.0 | 5.5 | 8.3 | 8.7 | 9.5 |
| EBITA | 15.2 | 22.2 | 24.0 | 27.9 | 44.6 | 53.7 | 64.8 |
| Amortisation of goodwill | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Amortisation of intangible assets | 0.0 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 5.0 | 10.6 | 10.4 | 8.7 |
| Impairment charges | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| EBIT | 15.2 | 18.5 | 20.7 | 22.6 | 34.0 | 43.3 | 56.1 |
| Interest income | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.9 |
| Interest expenses | 1.9 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| Other financial result | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.0 | -0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Financial result | -1.8 | -1.6 | -1.8 | -1.2 | -0.8 | -0.5 | 0.1 |
| Recurring pretax income from continuing operations | 13.3 | 16.9 | 18.9 | 21.4 | 33.2 | 42.8 | 56.2 |
| Extraordinary income/loss | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Earnings before taxes | 13.3 | 16.9 | 18.9 | 21.4 | 33.2 | 42.8 | 56.2 |
| Taxes | 3.7 | 4.9 | 6.6 | 6.9 | 9.0 | 11.6 | 15.3 |
| Net income from continuing operations | 9.6 | 12.0 | 12.3 | 14.5 | 24.2 | 31.1 | 40.9 |
| Result from discontinued operations (net of tax) | 1.7 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Net income | 7.9 | 11.7 | 11.6 | 14.5 | 24.2 | 31.1 | 40.9 |
| Minority interest | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| Net income (net of minority interest) | 7.8 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 14.5 | 23.1 | 29.8 | 39.5 |
| Average number of shares | 10.3 | 10.4 | 10.6 | 11.8 | 14.6 | 14.6 | 14.6 |
| EPS reported | 0.76 | 1.11 | 1.09 | 1.23 | 1.58 | 2.04 | 2.70 |
| Profit and loss (common size) | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014E | 2015E | 2016E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % |
| Increase/decrease in finished goods and work-in-process | 0.3 % | 0.2 % | 0.5 % | 0.1 % | 0.1 % | 0.1 % | 0.1 % |
| Total sales | 100.3 % | 100.2 % | 100.5 % | 100.1 % | 100.1 % | 100.1 % | 100.1 % |
| Other operating income | 0.7 % | 0.1 % | 0.1 % | 0.2 % | 0.1 % | 0.1 % | 0.1 % |
| Material expenses | 70.9 % | 71.0 % | 70.8 % | 69.8 % | 65.1 % | 64.9 % | 64.3 % |
| Personnel expenses | 20.4 % | 19.8 % | 20.1 % | 20.1 % | 22.3 % | 21.8 % | 21.4 % |
| Other operating expenses | 5.7 % | 4.8 % | 4.6 % | 4.9 % | 5.6 % | 5.6 % | 5.6 % |
| Total operating expenses | 96.3 % | 95.6 % | 95.4 % | 94.6 % | 92.9 % | 92.2 % | 91.2 % |
| EBITDA | 4.0 % | 4.6 % | 5.0 % | 5.4 % | 7.2 % | 8.0 % | 9.0 % |
| Depreciation | 0.8 % | 0.5 % | 0.7 % | 0.9 % | 1.1 % | 1.1 % | 1.1 % |
| EBITA | 3.2 % | 4.1 % | 4.3 % | 4.5 % | 6.1 % | 6.9 % | 7.8 % |
| Amortisation of goodwill | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % |
| Amortisation of intangible assets | 0.0 % | 0.7 % | 0.6 % | 0.8 % | 1.4 % | 1.3 % | 1.0 % |
| Impairment charges | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % |
| EBIT | 3.2 % | 3.4 % | 3.7 % | 3.7 % | 4.6 % | 5.5 % | 6.8 % |
| Interest income | 0.0 % | 0.1 % | 0.1 % | 0.1 % | 0.1 % | 0.1 % | 0.1 % |
| Interest expenses | 0.4 % | 0.4 % | 0.4 % | 0.2 % | 0.2 % | 0.2 % | 0.1 % |
| Other financial result | 0.0 % | 0.1 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % |
| Financial result | -0.4 % | -0.3 % | -0.3 % | -0.2 % | -0.1 % | -0.1 % | 0.0 % |
| Recurring pretax income from continuing operations | 2.8 % | 3.1 % | 3.4 % | 3.5 % | 4.5 % | 5.5 % | 6.8 % |
| Extraordinary income/loss | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % |
| Earnings before taxes | 2.8 % | 3.1 % | 3.4 % | 3.5 % | 4.5 % | 5.5 % | 6.8 % |
| Tax rate | 28.1 % | 28.8 % | 35.0 % | 32.4 % | 27.2 % | 27.2 % | 27.2 % |
| Net income from continuing operations | 2.0 % | 2.2 % | 2.2 % | 2.4 % | 3.3 % | 4.0 % | 4.9 % |
| Income from discontinued operations (net of tax) | 0.4 % | 0.1 % | 0.1 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % |
| Net income | 1.7 % | 2.1 % | 2.1 % | 2.4 % | 3.3 % | 4.0 % | 4.9 % |
| Minority interest | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.1 % | 0.2 % | 0.2 % |
| Net income (net of minority interest) | 1.6 % | 2.1 % | 2.1 % | 2.4 % | 3.1 % | 3.8 % | 4.8 % |
CANCOM SE
| Balance sheet (EUR m) | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014E | 2015E | 2016E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Intangible assets | 42.5 | 39.6 | 41.2 | 55.3 | 63.7 | 59.1 | 56.4 |
| Property, plant and equipment | 9.7 | 12.9 | 17.6 | 20.5 | 23.9 | 26.2 | 28.3 |
| Financial assets | 3.2 | 2.2 | 5.0 | 35.0 | 35.0 | 35.0 | 35.0 |
| FIXED ASSETS | 55.4 | 54.6 | 63.8 | 110.8 | 122.5 | 120.3 | 119.7 |
| Inventories | 13.4 | 15.0 | 8.7 | 15.5 | 14.1 | 15.6 | 16.6 |
| Accounts receivable | 68.0 | 72.2 | 88.3 | 112.9 | 110.7 | 120.0 | 127.2 |
| Other current assets | 6.4 | 7.2 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Liquid assets | 31.5 | 44.4 | 44.6 | 77.7 | 83.5 | 96.8 | 127.9 |
| Deferred taxes | 0.7 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 |
| Deferred charges and prepaid expenses | 2.0 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 |
| CURRENT ASSETS | 122.0 | 140.2 | 144.8 | 210.7 | 212.9 | 236.9 | 276.2 |
| TOTAL ASSETS | 177.4 | 194.9 | 208.6 | 321.5 | 335.4 | 357.2 | 395.9 |
| SHAREHOLDERS EQUITY | 50.9 | 60.7 | 80.6 | 162.8 | 159.8 | 182.9 | 215.1 |
| MINORITY INTEREST | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 18.8 | 20.2 | 21.7 |
| Long-term debt | 29.0 | 16.7 | 14.1 | 14.4 | 17.0 | 8.2 | 7.2 |
| Provisions for pensions and similar obligations | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Other provisions | 3.2 | 7.6 | 5.1 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.4 |
| Non-current liabilities | 32.2 | 24.4 | 19.3 | 18.9 | 21.5 | 12.7 | 11.7 |
| short-term liabilities to banks | 1.6 | 9.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Accounts payable | 64.4 | 72.9 | 76.9 | 99.0 | 94.6 | 100.7 | 106.8 |
| Advance payments received on orders | 1.5 | 1.9 | 3.6 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 6.6 |
| Other liabilities (incl. from lease and rental contracts) | 16.3 | 17.4 | 18.8 | 23.5 | 23.5 | 23.5 | 23.5 |
| Deferred taxes | 4.3 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 |
| Deferred income | 6.0 | 5.6 | 5.1 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 4.6 |
| Current liabilities | 94.2 | 109.6 | 108.6 | 139.7 | 135.3 | 141.4 | 147.4 |
| TOTAL LIABILITIES AND SHAREHOLDERS EQUITY | 177.4 | 194.9 | 208.6 | 321.5 | 335.4 | 357.2 | 395.9 |
| Balance sheet (common size) | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014E | 2015E | 2016E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Intangible assets | 24.0 % | 20.3 % | 19.8 % | 17.2 % | 19.0 % | 16.6 % | 14.2 % |
| Property, plant and equipment | 5.5 % | 6.6 % | 8.4 % | 6.4 % | 7.1 % | 7.3 % | 7.1 % |
| Financial assets | 1.8 % | 1.1 % | 2.4 % | 10.9 % | 10.4 % | 9.8 % | 8.8 % |
| FIXED ASSETS | 31.2 % | 28.0 % | 30.6 % | 34.5 % | 36.5 % | 33.7 % | 30.2 % |
| Inventories | 7.5 % | 7.7 % | 4.2 % | 4.8 % | 4.2 % | 4.4 % | 4.2 % |
| Accounts receivable | 38.3 % | 37.1 % | 42.3 % | 35.1 % | 33.0 % | 33.6 % | 32.1 % |
| Other current assets | 3.6 % | 3.7 % | 0.4 % | 0.3 % | 0.3 % | 0.3 % | 0.3 % |
| Liquid assets | 17.7 % | 22.8 % | 21.4 % | 24.2 % | 24.9 % | 27.1 % | 32.3 % |
| Deferred taxes | 0.4 % | 0.3 % | 0.5 % | 0.5 % | 0.5 % | 0.5 % | 0.4 % |
| Deferred charges and prepaid expenses | 1.1 % | 0.4 % | 0.5 % | 0.5 % | 0.5 % | 0.5 % | 0.4 % |
| CURRENT ASSETS | 68.8 % | 72.0 % | 69.4 % | 65.5 % | 63.5 % | 66.3 % | 69.8 % |
| TOTAL ASSETS | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % |
| SHAREHOLDERS EQUITY | 28.7 % | 31.2 % | 38.6 % | 50.6 % | 47.6 % | 51.2 % | 54.3 % |
| MINORITY INTEREST | 0.0 % | 0.1 % | 0.1 % | 0.0 % | 5.6 % | 5.7 % | 5.5 % |
| Long-term debt | 16.3 % | 8.6 % | 6.8 % | 4.5 % | 5.1 % | 2.3 % | 1.8 % |
| Provisions for pensions and similar obligations | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.1 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % |
| Other provisions | 1.8 % | 3.9 % | 2.4 % | 1.4 % | 1.3 % | 1.2 % | 1.1 % |
| Non-current liabilities | 18.2 % | 12.5 % | 9.3 % | 5.9 % | 6.4 % | 3.5 % | 3.0 % |
| short-term liabilities to banks | 0.9 % | 4.7 % | 0.6 % | 0.2 % | 0.2 % | 0.2 % | 0.2 % |
| Accounts payable | 36.3 % | 37.4 % | 36.9 % | 30.8 % | 28.2 % | 28.2 % | 27.0 % |
| Advance payments received on orders | 0.9 % | 1.0 % | 1.7 % | 2.0 % | 2.0 % | 1.8 % | 1.7 % |
| Other liabilities (incl. from lease and rental contracts) | 9.2 % | 9.0 % | 9.0 % | 7.3 % | 7.0 % | 6.6 % | 5.9 % |
| Deferred taxes | 2.4 % | 1.4 % | 1.4 % | 1.6 % | 1.6 % | 1.5 % | 1.3 % |
| Deferred income | 3.4 % | 2.9 % | 2.4 % | 1.4 % | 1.4 % | 1.3 % | 1.2 % |
| Current liabilities | 53.1 % | 56.2 % | 52.0 % | 43.4 % | 40.3 % | 39.6 % | 37.2 % |
| TOTAL LIABILITIES AND SHAREHOLDERS EQUITY | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % |
CANCOM SE
| Cash flow statement (EUR m) | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014E | 2015E | 2016E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net profit/loss | 7.9 | 11.7 | 11.6 | 14.5 | 24.2 | 31.1 | 40.9 |
| Depreciation of fixed assets (incl. leases) | 3.8 | 2.8 | 4.0 | 5.5 | 8.3 | 8.7 | 9.5 |
| Amortisation of goodwill | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Amortisation of intangible assets | 0.0 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 5.0 | 10.6 | 10.4 | 8.7 |
| Others | 3.0 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Cash flow from operations before changes in w/c | 14.7 | 22.9 | 21.9 | 28.5 | 43.1 | 50.2 | 59.1 |
| Increase/decrease in inventory | 0.3 | -6.3 | 6.2 | -6.7 | 1.4 | -1.5 | -0.9 |
| Increase/decrease in accounts receivable | -15.2 | -5.2 | -16.1 | -24.7 | 2.2 | -9.3 | -7.2 |
| Increase/decrease in accounts payable | 17.1 | 15.3 | 4.0 | 22.1 | -4.4 | 6.1 | 6.0 |
| Increase/decrease in other working capital positions | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Increase/decrease in working capital | 2.2 | 3.8 | -5.8 | -9.3 | -0.8 | -4.7 | -2.1 |
| Cash flow from operating activities | 16.9 | 26.7 | 16.1 | 19.2 | 42.3 | 45.5 | 57.0 |
| CAPEX | 8.1 | 9.4 | 12.5 | 8.1 | 16.1 | 15.2 | 15.9 |
| Payments for acquisitions | 10.5 | 3.6 | 0.1 | 1.4 | 14.6 | 1.7 | 1.7 |
| Financial investments | -0.1 | -0.3 | 0.0 | 26.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Income from asset disposals | 1.1 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Cash flow from investing activities | -17.3 | -7.9 | -10.6 | -35.2 | -30.7 | -16.9 | -17.6 |
| Cash flow before financing | -0.4 | 18.8 | 5.5 | -16.0 | 11.6 | 28.7 | 39.5 |
| Increase/decrease in debt position | 8.1 | -2.6 | -11.9 | -1.1 | 0.0 | -8.8 | -1.0 |
| Purchase of own shares | -0.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Capital measures | 0.0 | 0.0 | 11.2 | 54.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Dividends paid | 1.5 | 1.6 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 5.8 | 6.6 | 7.3 |
| Others | -1.3 | -1.6 | -1.4 | -0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Effects of exchange rate changes on cash | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Cash flow from financing activities | 5.9 | -5.8 | -5.3 | 49.1 | -5.8 | -15.4 | -8.3 |
| Increase/decrease in liquid assets | 5.6 | 13.0 | 0.2 | 33.1 | 5.8 | 13.3 | 31.2 |
| Liquid assets at end of period | 31.5 | 44.5 | 44.6 | 77.7 | 83.5 | 96.8 | 127.9 |
Source: Company data, Hauck & Aufhäuser
| 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014E | 2015E | 2016E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0 | ||||||
| n/a | ||||||
| 32.9 | 42.4 | 29.0 | 30.7 | 36.0 | 37.5 | 0.0 |
| -9.6 % | 28.9 % | -31.7 % | 6.0 % | 17.3 % | 4.3 % | n/a |
| n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | 0.0 |
| n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | 0.0 |
| n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | 0.0 |
| n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| 474.6 | 544.4 | 558.1 | 613.8 | 734.7 | 782.2 | 0.0 |
| 12.3 % | 14.7 % | 2.5 % | 10.0 % | 19.7 % | 6.5 % | n/a |
| 441.7 14.4 % |
502.0 13.7 % |
529.1 5.4 % |
583.1 10.2 % |
698.7 19.8 % |
744.7 6.6 % |
CANCOM SE
| Key ratios (EUR m) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E |
2015E 2016E |
|---|---|
| P&L growth analysis | |
| Sales growth 36.2 % 14.7 % 2.5 % 10.0 % 19.7 % |
6.5 % 6.0 % |
| EBITDA growth 100.7 % 31.6 % 12.2 % 18.9 % 58.6 % |
17.8 % 19.2 % |
| EBIT growth 114.0 % 21.7 % 12.0 % 9.6 % 50.3 % |
27.0 % 29.7 % |
| EPS growth 55.5 % 46.4 % -2.1 % 13.7 % 27.9 % |
29.0 % 32.7 % |
| Efficiency | |
| Total operating costs / sales 96.3 % 95.6 % 95.4 % 94.6 % 92.9 % |
92.2 % 91.2 % |
| Sales per employee 257.7 273.1 270.9 289.1 |
330.9 337.9 702.6 |
| EBITDA per employee 10.3 12.5 13.6 15.7 |
23.9 26.9 63.0 |
| Balance sheet analysis | |
| Avg. working capital / sales 2.8 % 2.6 % 2.6 % 3.2 % |
3.2 % 3.3 % 3.5 % |
| Inventory turnover (sales/inventory) 35.5 36.3 63.8 39.6 |
52.0 50.0 50.0 |
| Trade debtors in days of sales 52.3 48.4 57.7 67.2 |
55.0 56.0 56.0 |
| A/P turnover [(A/P*365)/sales] 49.6 48.9 50.3 58.9 |
47.0 47.0 47.0 |
| Cash conversion cycle (days) -3.1 -6.3 -5.3 -3.9 |
-6.4 -5.2 -5.8 |
| Cash flow analysis | |
| Free cash flow 8.8 17.3 3.6 11.1 |
26.2 30.3 41.1 |
| Free cash flow/sales 1.9 % 3.2 % 0.6 % 1.8 % |
3.6 % 3.9 % 5.0 % |
| FCF / net profit 113.1 % 150.3 % 31.4 % 76.2 % 113.5 % |
101.9 % 104.1 % |
| Capex / depn 206.6 % 139.0 % 169.0 % 318.6 % 85.2 % |
79.6 % 87.5 % |
| Capex / maintenance capex 133.1 % 151.6 % n/a 112.8 % 102.6 % |
100.0 % 105.5 % |
| Capex / sales 1.7 % 1.7 % n/a n/a |
n/a n/a n/a |
| Security | |
| Net debt -0.9 -18.5 -29.2 -62.5 |
-65.7 -87.8 -120.0 |
| Net Debt/EBITDA 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 |
0.0 0.0 0.0 |
| Net debt / equity 0.0 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 |
-0.4 -0.5 -0.6 |
| Interest cover 8.0 8.3 9.7 16.5 |
22.9 35.9 73.7 |
| Dividend payout ratio 19.7 % 26.7 % 34.7 % 40.2 % 28.5 % |
24.6 % 24.6 % |
| Asset utilisation | |
| Capital employed turnover 5.6 5.8 5.5 3.4 |
3.7 3.6 3.3 |
| Operating assets turnover 18.9 21.5 16.4 14.2 |
15.4 14.3 14.1 |
| Plant turnover 49.0 42.2 31.8 30.0 |
30.7 29.9 29.3 |
| Inventory turnover (sales/inventory) 35.5 36.3 63.8 39.6 |
52.0 50.0 50.0 |
| Returns | |
| ROCE 19.5 % 20.6 % 21.1 % 16.0 % 17.8 % |
20.7 % 24.1 % |
| ROE 15.4 % 19.0 % 14.2 % 8.9 % 14.4 % |
16.3 % 18.4 % |
| Other | |
| Interest paid / avg. debt 7.2 % 7.9 % 10.3 % 9.0 % |
9.0 % 9.0 % 9.0 % |
| No. employees (average) 1842 1994 2060 2123 |
2220 2315 1180 |
| Number of shares 10.3 10.4 10.6 11.8 DPS 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 |
14.6 14.6 14.6 0.5 0.5 0.7 |
| EPS reported 0.76 1.11 1.09 1.23 |
1.58 2.04 2.70 |
| Valuation ratios | |
| P/BV 7.3 6.2 5.1 3.2 |
3.3 2.9 2.5 |
| EV/sales 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.8 |
0.6 0.6 0.5 |
| EV/EBITDA 19.5 14.1 13.6 14.0 |
8.7 7.1 5.5 |
| EV/EBITA 24.4 15.9 15.9 16.7 |
10.4 8.2 6.3 |
| EV/EBIT 24.4 19.1 18.5 20.6 |
13.6 10.2 7.3 |
| EV/FCF 41.9 20.4 106.0 42.1 |
17.7 14.5 9.9 |
| Adjusted FCF yield 3.1 % 4.4 % 4.1 % 4.6 % |
7.3 % 9.4 % 12.5 % |
| Dividend yield 0.4 % 0.8 % 1.0 % 1.1 % |
1.2 % 1.4 % 1.8 % |
Disclosures regarding research publications of Hauck & Aufhäuser Institutional Research AG pursuant to section 34b of the German Securities Trading Act (WpHG) and the regulations of the German Financial Analysis Ordinance (FinAnV)
Pursuant to section 34b of the German Securities Trading Act (WpHG) and section 5 of the Financial Analysis Ordinance (FinAnV) a research report has to point out possible conflicts of interest in connection with the analysed company. A conflict of interest is presumed to exist in particular if Hauck & Aufhäuser Institutional Research AG
- (1) or its affiliate(s) was, within the past twelve months, a member in a consortium that acquired the financial instruments of the analysed company,
- (2) has entered into an agreement on the production of the research report with the analysed company,
- (3) or its affiliate(s) has, within the past twelve months, been party to an agreement on the provision of investment banking services with the analysed company or have received services or a promise of services under the term of such an agreement,
- (4) or its affiliate(s) holds 5% or more of the share capital of the analysed company,
- (5) or its affiliate(s) regularly holds a trading position in shares of the analysed company or derivatives thereof,
- (6) or its affiliate(s) manages the financial instruments of the analysed company on the basis of an existing contractual relationship,
- (7) or the analyst has any other significant financial interests relating to the analysed company such as, for example, exercising mandates in the interest of the analysed company.
- (8) The research report has been made available to the company prior to its publication. Thereafter, only factual changes have been made to the report.
Conflicts of interest that existed at the time when this research report was published:
| Company | Disclosure |
|---|---|
| CANCOM SE | 2, 3, 5, 7 |
| Buy | 60.91 % | 100.00 % |
|---|---|---|
| Sell | 13.64 % | 0.00 % |
| Hold | 25.45 % | 0.00 % |
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4. Information Concerning the Methods of Valuation/Update
The determination of the fair value per share, i.e. the price target, and the resultant recommendation is done on the basis of the adjusted free cash flow (adj. FCF) method and on the basis of the discounted cash flow – DCF model. Furthermore, a peer group comparison is made.
The adj. FCF method is based on the assumption that investors purchase assets only at a price (enterprise value) at which the operating cash flow return after taxes on this investment exceeds their opportunity costs in the form of a hurdle rate of 7.5%. The operating cash flow is calculated as EBITDA less maintenance capex and taxes.
Within the framework of the DCF approach, the future free cash flows are calculated initially on the basis of a fictitious capital structure of 100% equity, i.e. interest and repayments on debt capital are not factored in initially. The adjustment towards the actual capital structure is done by discounting the calculated free cash flows with the weighted average cost of capital (WACC), which takes into account both the cost of equity capital and the cost of debt. After discounting, the calculated total enterprise value is reduced by the interest-bearing debt capital in order to arrive at the equity value.
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