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CANCOM SE — Investor Presentation 2014
Jul 1, 2014
71_rns_2014-07-01_607f421d-ab92-426c-8b95-f48998ec795d.pdf
Investor Presentation
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CANCOM SE Germany - IT Services
| Buy (old: Buy) | 01-July-14 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price target: EUR 46.00 (old: EUR 43.50) |
Tim Wunderlich, CFA Analyst |
|||
| Price: | EUR 37.44 | Next result: | Q2 14: 07.08.14 | |
| Bloomberg: | COK GR | Market cap: | EUR 557.1 m | [email protected] |
| Reuters: | COKG.DE | Enterprise Value: | EUR 516.7 m | Tel.: +49 40 4143885 81 |
Business stays strong; Incorporating DIDAS; Adj. Est. & PT
CANCOM remains in high growth mode. The company is seen to have achieved low double-digit organic sales growth (eH&A: 10% yoy) in April and May. Especially in the cloud environment growth remains highly dynamic at c. 30% according to management. Apart from that, demand should also be driven by "common" IT software, hardware and services. Amongst other, given the end of the Windows XP support, a lot of SMEs should have switched to Windows 7 triggering knock-on demand for new IT hardware (compare healthy figures from Intel).
Integration of latest take-over targets on track. Regarding Pironet, CANCOM should be in the process of cutting out € 1m of fixed costs relating to admin functions (e.g. marketing, finance). It expects to finalise these measures by August. Regarding US target HPM, CANCOM has successfully implemented its AHP cloud solution at the new subsidiary. This implementation was the "on the job training" of the US consultants, who are now ready to win US customers.
More info on DIDAS take-over. CANCOM will consolidate the IT service provider DIDAS on July 1. For the full year 2014E, DIDAS should generate € 50m of sales and € 1.9m of EBITDA: € 30m sales and € 1.1m EBITDA (pre integration costs) are seen to accrue in H2. CANCOM will issue c. 264,000 shares to the old owner at a price of c. € 38 (i.e. new information). The implied purchase price of c. € 10m signals a transaction multiple of c. 5x EV/EBITDA 2014E – value-accretive to CANCOM. The company expects to improve the target's EBITDA margin (currently: c. 4%) to 5% by 2015E and to 6% by 2016E driven by synergies in logistics, procurement and admin. Management has a strong track record of doing so thanks to its acquisitive past.
Action: Higher sales estimates ('14E: +9.0% / '15E: +9.3%) incorporate the DIDAS take-over as well as higher organic hardware & services growth. Also, EBIT expectations (+2% for '15E) are raised because of DIDAS (eH&A: 5% EBITDA margin in '15E) offset partly by higher PPA amortisation. For '14E, EBIT estimates are cut by 14% but only because we factor in € 5m higher PPA amortisation (not exclusively relating to DIDAS but also to previous take-overs; see next page) as well as integration costs of € 1m.
CANCOM remains a BUY with a new PT of € 46.00 (DCF) thanks to its strong position in the German IT service and Private Cloud space. – cont. –
| Y/E 31.12 (EUR m) | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014E | 2015E | 2016E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | 474.6 | 544.4 | 558.1 | 613.8 | 800.7 | 855.0 | 897.0 |
| Sales growth | 36 % | 15 % | 3 % | 10 % | 30 % | 7 % | 5 % |
| EBITDA | 19.0 | 25.0 | 28.1 | 33.4 | 53.2 | 64.8 | 77.2 |
| EBIT | 15.2 | 18.5 | 20.7 | 22.6 | 29.2 | 44.2 | 58.5 |
| Net income | 7.8 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 14.5 | 19.7 | 30.7 | 41.3 |
| Net debt | -0.9 | -18.5 | -29.2 | -62.5 | -40.5 | -68.7 | -102.9 |
| Net gearing | -1.8 % | -30.4 % | -36.3 % | -38.4 % | -25.3 % | -37.4 % | -47.2 % |
| Net Debt/EBITDA | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| EPS pro forma | 0.92 | 1.14 | 1.06 | 0.99 | 1.33 | 2.06 | 2.77 |
| CPS | 1.28 | 2.18 | 0.89 | 0.87 | 2.05 | 2.74 | 3.28 |
| DPS | 0.15 | 0.30 | 0.35 | 0.40 | 0.45 | 0.50 | 0.67 |
| Dividend yield | 0.4 % | 0.8 % | 0.9 % | 1.1 % | 1.2 % | 1.3 % | 1.8 % |
| Gross profit margin | 29.3 % | 29.1 % | 29.5 % | 30.2 % | 35.1 % | 35.5 % | 35.8 % |
| EBITDA margin | 4.0 % | 4.6 % | 5.0 % | 5.4 % | 6.6 % | 7.6 % | 8.6 % |
| EBIT margin | 3.2 % | 3.4 % | 3.7 % | 3.7 % | 3.6 % | 5.2 % | 6.5 % |
| ROCE | 19.5 % | 20.6 % | 21.1 % | 16.0 % | 13.6 % | 17.4 % | 21.0 % |
| EV/sales | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| EV/EBITDA | 20.2 | 14.6 | 14.1 | 14.5 | 9.7 | 7.5 | 5.9 |
| EV/EBIT | 25.3 | 19.8 | 19.2 | 21.4 | 17.7 | 11.1 | 7.8 |
| PER | 40.6 | 32.8 | 35.2 | 37.7 | 28.3 | 18.2 | 13.5 |
| Adjusted FCF yield | 3.0 % | 4.3 % | 3.9 % | 4.4 % | 6.5 % | 8.4 % | 10.9 % |
Source: Company data, Hauck & Aufhäuser Close price as of: 30.06.2014
Source: Company data, Hauck & Aufhäuser
| High/low 52 weeks: | 39.48 / 17.68 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price/Book Ratio: | 3.5 | |||||||
| Relative performance (TecDAX): | ||||||||
| 3 months | 3.6 % | |||||||
| 6 months | - | |||||||
| 12 months | 70.2 % |
Changes in estimates
| Sales | EBIT | EPS | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| old: | 734.7 | 34.0 | 1.59 | |
| 2014 | ∆ | 9% | -14% | -17% |
| old: | 782.2 | 43.3 | 2.06 | |
| 2015 | ∆ | 9% | 2% | 0% |
| old: | 829.1 | 56.1 | 2.71 | |
| 2016 | ∆ | 8% | 4% | 2% |
Key share data:
| Number of shares: (in m pcs) | 14.7 |
|---|---|
| Authorised capital: (in € m) | 4.0 |
| Book value per share: (in €) | 10.7 |
| Ø trading volume: (12 months) | 60,000 |
Major shareholders:
| Free Float | 82.9 % |
|---|---|
| AGI | 13.3 % |
| Stefan Kober | 2.3 % |
| Klaus Weinmann | 1.6 % |
Company description:
CANCOM is Germany's 3rd largest independent system house operating a scalable eCommerce business.
| CANCOM SE: Trend in operating performance 2009-16E | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014E | 2015E | 2016E | |
| Sales | 348 | 475 | 544 | 558 | 614 | 801 | 855 | 897 |
| y-o-y | 17.2% | 36.2% | 14.7% | 2.5% | 10.0% | 30.5% | 6.8% | 4.9% |
| Cloud Computing | n/a | n/a | n/a | 10.0 | 15.0 | 72.0 | 83.0 | 95.0 |
| y-o-y | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | 50% | 380% | 15% | 14% |
| in % of sales | n/a | n/a | n/a | 2% | 2% | 9% | 10% | 11% |
| Traditional IT business & Other | 348 | 475 | 544 | 548 | 599 | 729 | 772 | 802 |
| y-o-y | 17% | 36% | 15% | 1% | 9% | 22% | 6% | 4% |
| in % of sales | 100% | 100% | 100% | 98% | 98% | 91% | 90% | 89% |
| EBITDA | 9.5 | 19.0 | 25.0 | 28.1 | 33.4 | 53.2 | 64.8 | 77.2 |
| EBITDA-margin | 2.7% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 8.6% |
| Cloud Computing | n/a | n/a | n/a | 3.0 | 5.0 | 16.1 | 23.4 | 31.0 |
| EBITDA-margin | n/a | n/a | n/a | 30% | 33% | 22% | 28% | 33% |
| in % of EBITDA | n/a | n/a | n/a | 11% | 15% | 30% | 36% | 40% |
| Traditional IT business & Other | 9.5 | 19.0 | 25.0 | 25.1 | 28.4 | 37.1 | 41.4 | 46.2 |
| EBITDA-margin | 2.7% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.8% |
| in % of EBITDA | 100% | 100% | 100% | 89% | 85% | 70% | 64% | 60% |
| Net income | 5.1 | 7.8 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 14.5 | 21.2 | 31.4 | 41.3 |
| in % of sales | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 4.6% |
Source: Company data, Hauck & Aufhäuser
CANCOM: Organic versus external growth 2013-15E
Source: Company data, Hauck & Aufhäuser
CANCOM: PPA amortisation per year 2014-16E (in € m)
Source: Company data, Hauck & Aufhäuser
Financials
| Profit and loss (EUR m) | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014E | 2015E | 2016E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales | 474.6 | 544.4 | 558.1 | 613.8 | 800.7 | 855.0 | 897.0 |
| Sales growth | 36.2 % | 14.7 % | 2.5 % | 10.0 % | 30.5 % | 6.8 % | 4.9 % |
| Increase/decrease in finished goods and work-in-process | 1.3 | 0.9 | 2.5 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| Total sales | 475.8 | 545.3 | 560.6 | 614.2 | 801.7 | 856.0 | 898.1 |
| Other operating income | 3.3 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| Material expenses | 336.3 | 386.6 | 395.1 | 428.7 | 520.0 | 552.5 | 576.7 |
| Personnel expenses | 97.0 | 108.0 | 112.4 | 123.2 | 184.0 | 191.4 | 195.1 |
| Other operating expenses | 26.8 | 26.4 | 25.8 | 29.9 | 45.2 | 48.0 | 49.8 |
| Total operating expenses | 456.8 | 520.3 | 532.5 | 580.8 | 748.6 | 791.3 | 820.9 |
| EBITDA | 19.0 | 25.0 | 28.1 | 33.4 | 53.2 | 64.8 | 77.2 |
| Depreciation | 3.8 | 2.8 | 4.0 | 5.5 | 8.3 | 8.7 | 9.5 |
| EBITA | 15.2 | 22.2 | 24.0 | 27.9 | 44.9 | 56.1 | 67.7 |
| Amortisation of goodwill | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Amortisation of intangible assets | 0.0 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 5.0 | 15.7 | 11.9 | 9.2 |
| Impairment charges | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| EBIT | 15.2 | 18.5 | 20.7 | 22.6 | 29.2 | 44.2 | 58.5 |
| Interest income | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 1.1 |
| Interest expenses | 1.9 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.9 |
| Other financial result | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.0 | -0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Financial result | -1.8 | -1.6 | -1.8 | -1.2 | -0.7 | -0.1 | 0.2 |
| Recurring pretax income from continuing operations | 13.3 | 16.9 | 18.9 | 21.4 | 28.5 | 44.1 | 58.7 |
| Extraordinary income/loss | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Earnings before taxes | 13.3 | 16.9 | 18.9 | 21.4 | 28.5 | 44.1 | 58.7 |
| Taxes | 3.7 | 4.9 | 6.6 | 6.9 | 7.7 | 12.0 | 16.0 |
| Net income from continuing operations | 9.6 | 12.0 | 12.3 | 14.5 | 20.7 | 32.1 | 42.7 |
| Result from discontinued operations (net of tax) | 1.7 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Net income | 7.9 | 11.7 | 11.6 | 14.5 | 20.7 | 32.1 | 42.7 |
| Minority interest | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| Net income (net of minority interest) | 7.8 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 14.5 | 19.7 | 30.7 | 41.3 |
| Average number of shares | 10.3 | 10.4 | 10.6 | 11.8 | 14.7 | 14.9 | 14.9 |
| EPS reported | 0.76 | 1.11 | 1.09 | 1.23 | 1.34 | 2.06 | 2.77 |
| Profit and loss (common size) | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014E | 2015E | 2016E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % |
| Increase/decrease in finished goods and work-in-process | 0.3 % | 0.2 % | 0.5 % | 0.1 % | 0.1 % | 0.1 % | 0.1 % |
| Total sales | 100.3 % | 100.2 % | 100.5 % | 100.1 % | 100.1 % | 100.1 % | 100.1 % |
| Other operating income | 0.7 % | 0.1 % | 0.1 % | 0.2 % | 0.1 % | 0.1 % | 0.1 % |
| Material expenses | 70.9 % | 71.0 % | 70.8 % | 69.8 % | 64.9 % | 64.6 % | 64.3 % |
| Personnel expenses | 20.4 % | 19.8 % | 20.1 % | 20.1 % | 23.0 % | 22.4 % | 21.8 % |
| Other operating expenses | 5.7 % | 4.8 % | 4.6 % | 4.9 % | 5.6 % | 5.6 % | 5.6 % |
| Total operating expenses | 96.3 % | 95.6 % | 95.4 % | 94.6 % | 93.5 % | 92.5 % | 91.5 % |
| EBITDA | 4.0 % | 4.6 % | 5.0 % | 5.4 % | 6.6 % | 7.6 % | 8.6 % |
| Depreciation | 0.8 % | 0.5 % | 0.7 % | 0.9 % | 1.0 % | 1.0 % | 1.1 % |
| EBITA | 3.2 % | 4.1 % | 4.3 % | 4.5 % | 5.6 % | 6.6 % | 7.5 % |
| Amortisation of goodwill | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % |
| Amortisation of intangible assets | 0.0 % | 0.7 % | 0.6 % | 0.8 % | 2.0 % | 1.4 % | 1.0 % |
| Impairment charges | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % |
| EBIT | 3.2 % | 3.4 % | 3.7 % | 3.7 % | 3.6 % | 5.2 % | 6.5 % |
| Interest income | 0.0 % | 0.1 % | 0.1 % | 0.1 % | 0.1 % | 0.1 % | 0.1 % |
| Interest expenses | 0.4 % | 0.4 % | 0.4 % | 0.2 % | 0.2 % | 0.1 % | 0.1 % |
| Other financial result | 0.0 % | 0.1 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % |
| Financial result | -0.4 % | -0.3 % | -0.3 % | -0.2 % | -0.1 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % |
| Recurring pretax income from continuing operations | 2.8 % | 3.1 % | 3.4 % | 3.5 % | 3.6 % | 5.2 % | 6.5 % |
| Extraordinary income/loss | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % |
| Earnings before taxes | 2.8 % | 3.1 % | 3.4 % | 3.5 % | 3.6 % | 5.2 % | 6.5 % |
| Tax rate | 28.1 % | 28.8 % | 35.0 % | 32.4 % | 27.2 % | 27.2 % | 27.2 % |
| Net income from continuing operations | 2.0 % | 2.2 % | 2.2 % | 2.4 % | 2.6 % | 3.8 % | 4.8 % |
| Income from discontinued operations (net of tax) | 0.4 % | 0.1 % | 0.1 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % |
| Net income | 1.7 % | 2.1 % | 2.1 % | 2.4 % | 2.6 % | 3.8 % | 4.8 % |
| Minority interest | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.1 % | 0.2 % | 0.2 % |
| Net income (net of minority interest) | 1.6 % | 2.1 % | 2.1 % | 2.4 % | 2.5 % | 3.6 % | 4.6 % |
| Balance sheet (EUR m) | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014E | 2015E | 2016E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Intangible assets | 42.5 | 39.6 | 41.2 | 55.3 | 107.0 | 101.0 | 97.5 |
| Property, plant and equipment | 9.7 | 12.9 | 17.6 | 20.5 | 31.9 | 34.2 | 37.3 |
| Financial assets | 3.2 | 2.2 | 5.0 | 35.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 |
| FIXED ASSETS | 55.4 | 54.6 | 63.8 | 110.8 | 144.9 | 141.2 | 140.7 |
| Inventories | 13.4 | 15.0 | 8.7 | 15.5 | 15.4 | 16.8 | 17.6 |
| Accounts receivable | 68.0 | 72.2 | 88.3 | 112.9 | 120.0 | 126.5 | 132.7 |
| Other current assets | 6.4 | 7.2 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Liquid assets | 31.5 | 44.4 | 44.6 | 77.7 | 103.3 | 122.7 | 155.8 |
| Deferred taxes | 0.7 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 |
| Deferred charges and prepaid expenses | 2.0 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 |
| CURRENT ASSETS | 122.0 | 140.2 | 144.8 | 210.7 | 243.2 | 270.5 | 310.6 |
| TOTAL ASSETS | 177.4 | 194.9 | 208.6 | 321.5 | 388.1 | 411.6 | 451.3 |
| SHAREHOLDERS EQUITY | 50.9 | 60.7 | 80.6 | 162.8 | 159.9 | 183.9 | 217.7 |
| MINORITY INTEREST | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 17.9 | 19.3 | 20.8 |
| Long-term debt | 29.0 | 16.7 | 14.1 | 14.4 | 62.0 | 53.2 | 52.2 |
| Provisions for pensions and similar obligations | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Other provisions | 3.2 | 7.6 | 5.1 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.4 |
| Non-current liabilities | 32.2 | 24.4 | 19.3 | 18.9 | 66.5 | 57.7 | 56.7 |
| short-term liabilities to banks | 1.6 | 9.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Accounts payable | 64.4 | 72.9 | 76.9 | 99.0 | 103.1 | 110.1 | 115.5 |
| Advance payments received on orders | 1.5 | 1.9 | 3.6 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 6.6 |
| Other liabilities (incl. from lease and rental contracts) | 16.3 | 17.4 | 18.8 | 23.5 | 23.5 | 23.5 | 23.5 |
| Deferred taxes | 4.3 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 |
| Deferred income | 6.0 | 5.6 | 5.1 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 4.6 |
| Current liabilities | 94.2 | 109.6 | 108.6 | 139.7 | 143.8 | 150.8 | 156.2 |
| TOTAL LIABILITIES AND SHAREHOLDERS EQUITY | 177.4 | 194.9 | 208.6 | 321.5 | 388.1 | 411.6 | 451.3 |
| Balance sheet (common size) | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014E | 2015E | 2016E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Intangible assets | 24.0 % | 20.3 % | 19.8 % | 17.2 % | 27.6 % | 24.5 % | 21.6 % |
| Property, plant and equipment | 5.5 % | 6.6 % | 8.4 % | 6.4 % | 8.2 % | 8.3 % | 8.3 % |
| Financial assets | 1.8 % | 1.1 % | 2.4 % | 10.9 % | 1.5 % | 1.5 % | 1.3 % |
| FIXED ASSETS | 31.2 % | 28.0 % | 30.6 % | 34.5 % | 37.3 % | 34.3 % | 31.2 % |
| Inventories | 7.5 % | 7.7 % | 4.2 % | 4.8 % | 4.0 % | 4.1 % | 3.9 % |
| Accounts receivable | 38.3 % | 37.1 % | 42.3 % | 35.1 % | 30.9 % | 30.7 % | 29.4 % |
| Other current assets | 3.6 % | 3.7 % | 0.4 % | 0.3 % | 0.3 % | 0.3 % | 0.2 % |
| Liquid assets | 17.7 % | 22.8 % | 21.4 % | 24.2 % | 26.6 % | 29.8 % | 34.5 % |
| Deferred taxes | 0.4 % | 0.3 % | 0.5 % | 0.5 % | 0.5 % | 0.4 % | 0.4 % |
| Deferred charges and prepaid expenses | 1.1 % | 0.4 % | 0.5 % | 0.5 % | 0.4 % | 0.4 % | 0.4 % |
| CURRENT ASSETS | 68.8 % | 72.0 % | 69.4 % | 65.5 % | 62.7 % | 65.7 % | 68.8 % |
| TOTAL ASSETS | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % |
| SHAREHOLDERS EQUITY | 28.7 % | 31.2 % | 38.6 % | 50.6 % | 41.2 % | 44.7 % | 48.2 % |
| MINORITY INTEREST | 0.0 % | 0.1 % | 0.1 % | 0.0 % | 4.6 % | 4.7 % | 4.6 % |
| Long-term debt | 16.3 % | 8.6 % | 6.8 % | 4.5 % | 16.0 % | 12.9 % | 11.6 % |
| Provisions for pensions and similar obligations | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.1 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % |
| Other provisions | 1.8 % | 3.9 % | 2.4 % | 1.4 % | 1.1 % | 1.1 % | 1.0 % |
| Non-current liabilities | 18.2 % | 12.5 % | 9.3 % | 5.9 % | 17.1 % | 14.0 % | 12.6 % |
| short-term liabilities to banks | 0.9 % | 4.7 % | 0.6 % | 0.2 % | 0.2 % | 0.2 % | 0.2 % |
| Accounts payable | 36.3 % | 37.4 % | 36.9 % | 30.8 % | 26.6 % | 26.7 % | 25.6 % |
| Advance payments received on orders | 0.9 % | 1.0 % | 1.7 % | 2.0 % | 1.7 % | 1.6 % | 1.5 % |
| Other liabilities (incl. from lease and rental contracts) | 9.2 % | 9.0 % | 9.0 % | 7.3 % | 6.1 % | 5.7 % | 5.2 % |
| Deferred taxes | 2.4 % | 1.4 % | 1.4 % | 1.6 % | 1.3 % | 1.3 % | 1.2 % |
| Deferred income | 3.4 % | 2.9 % | 2.4 % | 1.4 % | 1.2 % | 1.1 % | 1.0 % |
| Current liabilities | 53.1 % | 56.2 % | 52.0 % | 43.4 % | 37.0 % | 36.6 % | 34.6 % |
| TOTAL LIABILITIES AND SHAREHOLDERS EQUITY | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % |
| Cash flow statement (EUR m) | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014E | 2015E | 2016E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net profit/loss | 7.9 | 11.7 | 11.6 | 14.5 | 20.7 | 32.1 | 42.7 |
| Depreciation of fixed assets (incl. leases) | 3.8 | 2.8 | 4.0 | 5.5 | 8.3 | 8.7 | 9.5 |
| Amortisation of goodwill | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Amortisation of intangible assets | 0.0 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 5.0 | 15.7 | 11.9 | 9.2 |
| Others | 3.0 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Cash flow from operations before changes in w/c | 14.7 | 22.9 | 21.9 | 28.5 | 44.7 | 52.7 | 61.4 |
| Increase/decrease in inventory | 0.3 | -6.3 | 6.2 | -6.7 | 0.1 | -1.4 | -0.8 |
| Increase/decrease in accounts receivable | -15.2 | -5.2 | -16.1 | -24.7 | -7.0 | -6.5 | -6.2 |
| Increase/decrease in accounts payable | 17.1 | 15.3 | 4.0 | 22.1 | 4.1 | 7.0 | 5.4 |
| Increase/decrease in other working capital positions | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Increase/decrease in working capital | 2.2 | 3.8 | -5.8 | -9.3 | -2.8 | -0.9 | -1.6 |
| Cash flow from operating activities | 16.9 | 26.7 | 16.1 | 19.2 | 41.9 | 51.8 | 59.8 |
| CAPEX | 8.1 | 9.4 | 12.5 | 8.1 | 24.1 | 15.2 | 16.6 |
| Payments for acquisitions | 10.5 | 3.6 | 0.1 | 1.4 | 30.0 | 1.7 | 1.7 |
| Financial investments | -0.1 | -0.3 | 0.0 | 26.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Income from asset disposals | 1.1 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Cash flow from investing activities | -17.3 | -7.9 | -10.6 | -35.2 | -54.1 | -16.9 | -18.2 |
| Cash flow before financing | -0.4 | 18.8 | 5.5 | -16.0 | -12.2 | 34.9 | 41.6 |
| Increase/decrease in debt position | 8.1 | -2.6 | -11.9 | -1.1 | 45.0 | -8.8 | -1.0 |
| Purchase of own shares | -0.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Capital measures | 0.0 | 0.0 | 11.2 | 54.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Dividends paid | 1.5 | 1.6 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 5.8 | 6.7 | 7.4 |
| Others | -1.3 | -1.6 | -1.4 | -0.3 | -1.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Effects of exchange rate changes on cash | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Cash flow from financing activities | 5.9 | -5.8 | -5.3 | 49.1 | 37.8 | -15.5 | -8.4 |
| Increase/decrease in liquid assets | 5.6 | 13.0 | 0.2 | 33.1 | 25.5 | 19.4 | 33.1 |
| Liquid assets at end of period | 31.5 | 44.5 | 44.6 | 77.7 | 103.3 | 122.7 | 155.8 |
Source: Company data, Hauck & Aufhäuser
| 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014E | 2015E | 2016E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0 | ||||||
| n/a | ||||||
| 32.9 | 42.4 | 29.0 | 30.7 | 39.2 | 41.0 | 0.0 |
| -9.6 % | 28.9 % | -31.7 % | 6.0 % | 27.8 % | 4.6 % | n/a |
| n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | 0.0 |
| n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | 0.0 |
| n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | 0.0 |
| n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| 474.6 | 544.4 | 558.1 | 613.8 | 800.7 | 855.0 | 0.0 |
| 12.3 % | 14.7 % | 2.5 % | 10.0 % | 30.5 % | 6.8 % | n/a |
| 441.7 14.4 % |
502.0 13.7 % |
529.1 5.4 % |
583.1 10.2 % |
761.5 30.6 % |
814.0 6.9 % |
| Key ratios (EUR m) | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014E | 2015E | 2016E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P&L growth analysis | |||||||
| Sales growth | 36.2 % | 14.7 % | 2.5 % | 10.0 % | 30.5 % | 6.8 % | 4.9 % |
| EBITDA growth | 100.7 % | 31.6 % | 12.2 % | 18.9 % | 59.2 % | 21.8 % | 19.2 % |
| EBIT growth | 114.0 % | 21.7 % | 12.0 % | 9.6 % | 28.7 % | 51.5 % | 32.5 % |
| EPS growth | 55.5 % | 46.4 % | -2.1 % | 13.7 % | 8.3 % | 54.1 % | 34.6 % |
| Efficiency | |||||||
| Total operating costs / sales | 96.3 % | 95.6 % | 95.4 % | 94.6 % | 93.5 % | 92.5 % | 91.5 % |
| Sales per employee | 257.7 | 273.1 | 270.9 | 289.1 | 360.7 | 369.3 | 760.2 |
| EBITDA per employee | 10.3 | 12.5 | 13.6 | 15.7 | 23.9 | 28.0 | 65.4 |
| Balance sheet analysis | |||||||
| Avg. working capital / sales | 2.8 % | 2.6 % | 2.6 % | 3.2 % | 3.0 % | 3.1 % | 3.1 % |
| Inventory turnover (sales/inventory) | 35.5 | 36.3 | 63.8 | 39.6 | 52.0 | 51.0 | 51.0 |
| Trade debtors in days of sales | 52.3 | 48.4 | 57.7 | 67.2 | 54.7 | 54.0 | 54.0 |
| A/P turnover [(A/P*365)/sales] | 49.6 | 48.9 | 50.3 | 58.9 | 47.0 | 47.0 | 47.0 |
| Cash conversion cycle (days) | -3.1 | -6.3 | -5.3 | -3.9 | -6.9 | -7.7 | -8.0 |
| Cash flow analysis | |||||||
| Free cash flow | 8.8 | 17.3 | 3.6 | 11.1 | 17.8 | 36.6 | 43.2 |
| Free cash flow/sales | 1.9 % | 3.2 % | 0.6 % | 1.8 % | 2.2 % | 4.3 % | 4.8 % |
| FCF / net profit | 113.1 % | 150.3 % | 31.4 % | 76.2 % | 90.2 % | 119.4 % | 104.7 % |
| Capex / depn | 206.6 % | 139.0 % | 169.0 % | 318.6 % | 100.4 % | 73.8 % | 88.7 % |
| Capex / maintenance capex | 133.1 % | 151.6 % | n/a | 112.8 % | 172.8 % | 100.0 % | 114.2 % |
| Capex / sales | 1.7 % | 1.7 % | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Security | |||||||
| Net debt | -0.9 | -18.5 | -29.2 | -62.5 | -40.5 | -68.7 | -102.9 |
| Net Debt/EBITDA | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Net debt / equity Interest cover |
0.0 8.0 |
-0.3 8.3 |
-0.4 9.7 |
-0.4 16.5 |
-0.3 20.8 |
-0.4 44.2 |
-0.5 65.0 |
| Dividend payout ratio | 19.7 % | 26.7 % | 34.7 % | 40.2 % | 34.0 % | 24.3 % | 24.3 % |
| Asset utilisation | |||||||
| Capital employed turnover | 5.6 | 5.8 | 5.5 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.0 |
| Operating assets turnover | 18.9 | 21.5 | 16.4 | 14.2 | 13.9 | 14.1 | 13.7 |
| Plant turnover | 49.0 | 42.2 | 31.8 | 30.0 | 25.1 | 25.0 | 24.1 |
| Inventory turnover (sales/inventory) | 35.5 | 36.3 | 63.8 | 39.6 | 52.0 | 51.0 | 51.0 |
| Returns | |||||||
| ROCE | 19.5 % | 20.6 % | 21.1 % | 16.0 % | 13.6 % | 17.4 % | 21.0 % |
| ROE | 15.4 % | 19.0 % | 14.2 % | 8.9 % | 12.3 % | 16.7 % | 19.0 % |
| Other | |||||||
| Interest paid / avg. debt | 7.2 % | 7.9 % | 10.3 % | 9.0 % | 3.6 % | 1.7 % | 1.7 % |
| No. employees (average) | 1842 | 1994 | 2060 | 2123 | 2220 | 2315 | 1180 |
| Number of shares | 10.3 | 10.4 | 10.6 | 11.8 | 14.7 | 14.9 | 14.9 |
| DPS | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.7 |
| EPS reported | 0.76 | 1.11 | 1.09 | 1.23 | 1.34 | 2.06 | 2.77 |
| Valuation ratios | |||||||
| P/BV | 7.6 | 6.4 | 5.3 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 2.6 |
| EV/sales | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| EV/EBITDA | 20.2 | 14.6 | 14.1 | 14.5 | 9.7 | 7.5 | 5.9 |
| EV/EBITA | 25.3 | 16.5 | 16.5 | 17.4 | 11.5 | 8.7 | 6.7 |
| EV/EBIT | 25.3 | 19.8 | 19.2 | 21.4 | 17.7 | 11.1 | 7.8 |
| EV/FCF | 43.4 | 21.1 | 110.0 | 43.8 | 29.1 | 13.3 | 10.5 |
| Adjusted FCF yield | 3.0 % | 4.3 % | 3.9 % | 4.4 % | 6.5 % | 8.4 % | 10.9 % |
| Dividend yield | 0.4 % | 0.8 % | 0.9 % | 1.1 % | 1.2 % | 1.3 % | 1.8 % |
Disclosures regarding research publications of Hauck & Aufhäuser Institutional Research AG pursuant to section 34b of the German Securities Trading Act (WpHG) and the regulations of the German Financial Analysis Ordinance (FinAnV)
Pursuant to section 34b of the German Securities Trading Act (WpHG) and section 5 of the Financial Analysis Ordinance (FinAnV) a research report has to point out possible conflicts of interest in connection with the analysed company. A conflict of interest is presumed to exist in particular if Hauck & Aufhäuser Institutional Research AG
- (1) or its affiliate(s) was, within the past twelve months, a member in a consortium that acquired the financial instruments of the analysed company,
- (2) has entered into an agreement on the production of the research report with the analysed company,
- (3) or its affiliate(s) has, within the past twelve months, been party to an agreement on the provision of investment banking services with the analysed company or have received services or a promise of services under the term of such an agreement,
- (4) or its affiliate(s) holds 5% or more of the share capital of the analysed company,
- (5) or its affiliate(s) regularly holds a trading position in shares of the analysed company or derivatives thereof,
- (6) or its affiliate(s) manages the financial instruments of the analysed company on the basis of an existing contractual relationship,
- (7) or the analyst has any other significant financial interests relating to the analysed company such as, for example, exercising mandates in the interest of the analysed company.
- (8) The research report has been made available to the company prior to its publication. Thereafter, only factual changes have been made to the report.
Conflicts of interest that existed at the time when this research report was published:
| Company | Disclosure |
|---|---|
| CANCOM SE | 2, 3, 5, 7 |
| Buy | 63.48 % | 100.00 % |
|---|---|---|
| Sell | 13.04 % | 0.00 % |
| Hold | 23.48 % | 0.00 % |
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This research report was prepared by the research analyst named on the front page (the ʺProducerʺ). The Producer is solely responsible for the views and estimates expressed in this report. The report has been prepared independently, i.e. the content of which was not independently examined by the Company or Hauck & Aufhäuser Privatbankiers KGaA.
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No part of the Producer's compensation is directly or indirectly related to the preparation of this financial analysis.
4. Information Concerning the Methods of Valuation/Update
The determination of the fair value per share, i.e. the price target, and the resultant recommendation is done on the basis of the adjusted free cash flow (adj. FCF) method and on the basis of the discounted cash flow – DCF model. Furthermore, a peer group comparison is made.
The adj. FCF method is based on the assumption that investors purchase assets only at a price (enterprise value) at which the operating cash flow return after taxes on this investment exceeds their opportunity costs in the form of a hurdle rate of 7.5%. The operating cash flow is calculated as EBITDA less maintenance capex and taxes.
Within the framework of the DCF approach, the future free cash flows are calculated initially on the basis of a fictitious capital structure of 100% equity, i.e. interest and repayments on debt capital are not factored in initially. The adjustment towards the actual capital structure is done by discounting the calculated free cash flows with the weighted average cost of capital (WACC), which takes into account both the cost of equity capital and the cost of debt. After discounting, the calculated total enterprise value is reduced by the interest-bearing debt capital in order to arrive at the equity value.
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Buy: Sustainable upside potential of more than 10% within 12 months Sell: Sustainable downside potential of more than 10% within 12 months. Hold: Upside/downside potential is limited. No immediate catalyst visible.
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The decision on the choice of the financial instruments analysed in this document was solely made by the Company. The opinions and estimates in this research report are subject to change without notice. It is within the discretion of the Company whether and when it publishes an update to this research report.
5. Major Sources of Information
Part of the information required for this research report was made available by the issuer of the financial instrument. Furthermore, this report is based on publicly available sources (such as, for example, Bloomberg, Reuters, VWD-Trader and the relevant daily press) believed to be reliable. The Company has checked the information for plausibility but not for accuracy or completeness.
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