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CANCOM SE Investor Presentation 2014

Jul 1, 2014

71_rns_2014-07-01_607f421d-ab92-426c-8b95-f48998ec795d.pdf

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CANCOM SE Germany - IT Services

Buy (old: Buy) 01-July-14
Price target: EUR 46.00
(old: EUR 43.50)
Tim Wunderlich, CFA
Analyst
Price: EUR 37.44 Next result: Q2 14: 07.08.14
Bloomberg: COK GR Market cap: EUR 557.1 m [email protected]
Reuters: COKG.DE Enterprise Value: EUR 516.7 m Tel.: +49 40 4143885 81

Business stays strong; Incorporating DIDAS; Adj. Est. & PT

CANCOM remains in high growth mode. The company is seen to have achieved low double-digit organic sales growth (eH&A: 10% yoy) in April and May. Especially in the cloud environment growth remains highly dynamic at c. 30% according to management. Apart from that, demand should also be driven by "common" IT software, hardware and services. Amongst other, given the end of the Windows XP support, a lot of SMEs should have switched to Windows 7 triggering knock-on demand for new IT hardware (compare healthy figures from Intel).

Integration of latest take-over targets on track. Regarding Pironet, CANCOM should be in the process of cutting out € 1m of fixed costs relating to admin functions (e.g. marketing, finance). It expects to finalise these measures by August. Regarding US target HPM, CANCOM has successfully implemented its AHP cloud solution at the new subsidiary. This implementation was the "on the job training" of the US consultants, who are now ready to win US customers.

More info on DIDAS take-over. CANCOM will consolidate the IT service provider DIDAS on July 1. For the full year 2014E, DIDAS should generate € 50m of sales and € 1.9m of EBITDA: € 30m sales and € 1.1m EBITDA (pre integration costs) are seen to accrue in H2. CANCOM will issue c. 264,000 shares to the old owner at a price of c. € 38 (i.e. new information). The implied purchase price of c. € 10m signals a transaction multiple of c. 5x EV/EBITDA 2014E – value-accretive to CANCOM. The company expects to improve the target's EBITDA margin (currently: c. 4%) to 5% by 2015E and to 6% by 2016E driven by synergies in logistics, procurement and admin. Management has a strong track record of doing so thanks to its acquisitive past.

Action: Higher sales estimates ('14E: +9.0% / '15E: +9.3%) incorporate the DIDAS take-over as well as higher organic hardware & services growth. Also, EBIT expectations (+2% for '15E) are raised because of DIDAS (eH&A: 5% EBITDA margin in '15E) offset partly by higher PPA amortisation. For '14E, EBIT estimates are cut by 14% but only because we factor in € 5m higher PPA amortisation (not exclusively relating to DIDAS but also to previous take-overs; see next page) as well as integration costs of € 1m.

CANCOM remains a BUY with a new PT of € 46.00 (DCF) thanks to its strong position in the German IT service and Private Cloud space. – cont. –

Y/E 31.12 (EUR m) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E
Sales 474.6 544.4 558.1 613.8 800.7 855.0 897.0
Sales growth 36 % 15 % 3 % 10 % 30 % 7 % 5 %
EBITDA 19.0 25.0 28.1 33.4 53.2 64.8 77.2
EBIT 15.2 18.5 20.7 22.6 29.2 44.2 58.5
Net income 7.8 11.5 11.5 14.5 19.7 30.7 41.3
Net debt -0.9 -18.5 -29.2 -62.5 -40.5 -68.7 -102.9
Net gearing -1.8 % -30.4 % -36.3 % -38.4 % -25.3 % -37.4 % -47.2 %
Net Debt/EBITDA 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
EPS pro forma 0.92 1.14 1.06 0.99 1.33 2.06 2.77
CPS 1.28 2.18 0.89 0.87 2.05 2.74 3.28
DPS 0.15 0.30 0.35 0.40 0.45 0.50 0.67
Dividend yield 0.4 % 0.8 % 0.9 % 1.1 % 1.2 % 1.3 % 1.8 %
Gross profit margin 29.3 % 29.1 % 29.5 % 30.2 % 35.1 % 35.5 % 35.8 %
EBITDA margin 4.0 % 4.6 % 5.0 % 5.4 % 6.6 % 7.6 % 8.6 %
EBIT margin 3.2 % 3.4 % 3.7 % 3.7 % 3.6 % 5.2 % 6.5 %
ROCE 19.5 % 20.6 % 21.1 % 16.0 % 13.6 % 17.4 % 21.0 %
EV/sales 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.5
EV/EBITDA 20.2 14.6 14.1 14.5 9.7 7.5 5.9
EV/EBIT 25.3 19.8 19.2 21.4 17.7 11.1 7.8
PER 40.6 32.8 35.2 37.7 28.3 18.2 13.5
Adjusted FCF yield 3.0 % 4.3 % 3.9 % 4.4 % 6.5 % 8.4 % 10.9 %

Source: Company data, Hauck & Aufhäuser Close price as of: 30.06.2014

Source: Company data, Hauck & Aufhäuser

High/low 52 weeks: 39.48 / 17.68
Price/Book Ratio: 3.5
Relative performance (TecDAX):
3 months 3.6 %
6 months -
12 months 70.2 %

Changes in estimates

Sales EBIT EPS
old: 734.7 34.0 1.59
2014 9% -14% -17%
old: 782.2 43.3 2.06
2015 9% 2% 0%
old: 829.1 56.1 2.71
2016 8% 4% 2%

Key share data:

Number of shares: (in m pcs) 14.7
Authorised capital: (in € m) 4.0
Book value per share: (in €) 10.7
Ø trading volume: (12 months) 60,000

Major shareholders:

Free Float 82.9 %
AGI 13.3 %
Stefan Kober 2.3 %
Klaus Weinmann 1.6 %

Company description:

CANCOM is Germany's 3rd largest independent system house operating a scalable eCommerce business.

CANCOM SE: Trend in operating performance 2009-16E
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E
Sales 348 475 544 558 614 801 855 897
y-o-y 17.2% 36.2% 14.7% 2.5% 10.0% 30.5% 6.8% 4.9%
Cloud Computing n/a n/a n/a 10.0 15.0 72.0 83.0 95.0
y-o-y n/a n/a n/a n/a 50% 380% 15% 14%
in % of sales n/a n/a n/a 2% 2% 9% 10% 11%
Traditional IT business & Other 348 475 544 548 599 729 772 802
y-o-y 17% 36% 15% 1% 9% 22% 6% 4%
in % of sales 100% 100% 100% 98% 98% 91% 90% 89%
EBITDA 9.5 19.0 25.0 28.1 33.4 53.2 64.8 77.2
EBITDA-margin 2.7% 4.0% 4.6% 5.0% 5.4% 6.6% 7.6% 8.6%
Cloud Computing n/a n/a n/a 3.0 5.0 16.1 23.4 31.0
EBITDA-margin n/a n/a n/a 30% 33% 22% 28% 33%
in % of EBITDA n/a n/a n/a 11% 15% 30% 36% 40%
Traditional IT business & Other 9.5 19.0 25.0 25.1 28.4 37.1 41.4 46.2
EBITDA-margin 2.7% 4.0% 4.6% 4.6% 4.7% 5.1% 5.4% 5.8%
in % of EBITDA 100% 100% 100% 89% 85% 70% 64% 60%
Net income 5.1 7.8 11.5 11.5 14.5 21.2 31.4 41.3
in % of sales 1.5% 1.6% 2.1% 2.1% 2.4% 2.6% 3.7% 4.6%

Source: Company data, Hauck & Aufhäuser

CANCOM: Organic versus external growth 2013-15E

Source: Company data, Hauck & Aufhäuser

CANCOM: PPA amortisation per year 2014-16E (in € m)

Source: Company data, Hauck & Aufhäuser

Financials

Profit and loss (EUR m) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E
Net sales 474.6 544.4 558.1 613.8 800.7 855.0 897.0
Sales growth 36.2 % 14.7 % 2.5 % 10.0 % 30.5 % 6.8 % 4.9 %
Increase/decrease in finished goods and work-in-process 1.3 0.9 2.5 0.4 1.0 1.0 1.1
Total sales 475.8 545.3 560.6 614.2 801.7 856.0 898.1
Other operating income 3.3 0.7 0.6 1.1 0.7 0.7 0.7
Material expenses 336.3 386.6 395.1 428.7 520.0 552.5 576.7
Personnel expenses 97.0 108.0 112.4 123.2 184.0 191.4 195.1
Other operating expenses 26.8 26.4 25.8 29.9 45.2 48.0 49.8
Total operating expenses 456.8 520.3 532.5 580.8 748.6 791.3 820.9
EBITDA 19.0 25.0 28.1 33.4 53.2 64.8 77.2
Depreciation 3.8 2.8 4.0 5.5 8.3 8.7 9.5
EBITA 15.2 22.2 24.0 27.9 44.9 56.1 67.7
Amortisation of goodwill 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Amortisation of intangible assets 0.0 3.7 3.4 5.0 15.7 11.9 9.2
Impairment charges 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
EBIT 15.2 18.5 20.7 22.6 29.2 44.2 58.5
Interest income 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.7 0.9 1.1
Interest expenses 1.9 2.2 2.1 1.4 1.4 1.0 0.9
Other financial result 0.0 0.4 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Financial result -1.8 -1.6 -1.8 -1.2 -0.7 -0.1 0.2
Recurring pretax income from continuing operations 13.3 16.9 18.9 21.4 28.5 44.1 58.7
Extraordinary income/loss 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Earnings before taxes 13.3 16.9 18.9 21.4 28.5 44.1 58.7
Taxes 3.7 4.9 6.6 6.9 7.7 12.0 16.0
Net income from continuing operations 9.6 12.0 12.3 14.5 20.7 32.1 42.7
Result from discontinued operations (net of tax) 1.7 0.3 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Net income 7.9 11.7 11.6 14.5 20.7 32.1 42.7
Minority interest 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.0 1.4 1.5
Net income (net of minority interest) 7.8 11.5 11.5 14.5 19.7 30.7 41.3
Average number of shares 10.3 10.4 10.6 11.8 14.7 14.9 14.9
EPS reported 0.76 1.11 1.09 1.23 1.34 2.06 2.77
Profit and loss (common size) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E
Net sales 100.0 % 100.0 % 100.0 % 100.0 % 100.0 % 100.0 % 100.0 %
Increase/decrease in finished goods and work-in-process 0.3 % 0.2 % 0.5 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 %
Total sales 100.3 % 100.2 % 100.5 % 100.1 % 100.1 % 100.1 % 100.1 %
Other operating income 0.7 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.2 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 %
Material expenses 70.9 % 71.0 % 70.8 % 69.8 % 64.9 % 64.6 % 64.3 %
Personnel expenses 20.4 % 19.8 % 20.1 % 20.1 % 23.0 % 22.4 % 21.8 %
Other operating expenses 5.7 % 4.8 % 4.6 % 4.9 % 5.6 % 5.6 % 5.6 %
Total operating expenses 96.3 % 95.6 % 95.4 % 94.6 % 93.5 % 92.5 % 91.5 %
EBITDA 4.0 % 4.6 % 5.0 % 5.4 % 6.6 % 7.6 % 8.6 %
Depreciation 0.8 % 0.5 % 0.7 % 0.9 % 1.0 % 1.0 % 1.1 %
EBITA 3.2 % 4.1 % 4.3 % 4.5 % 5.6 % 6.6 % 7.5 %
Amortisation of goodwill 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Amortisation of intangible assets 0.0 % 0.7 % 0.6 % 0.8 % 2.0 % 1.4 % 1.0 %
Impairment charges 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
EBIT 3.2 % 3.4 % 3.7 % 3.7 % 3.6 % 5.2 % 6.5 %
Interest income 0.0 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 %
Interest expenses 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.1 % 0.1 %
Other financial result 0.0 % 0.1 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Financial result -0.4 % -0.3 % -0.3 % -0.2 % -0.1 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Recurring pretax income from continuing operations 2.8 % 3.1 % 3.4 % 3.5 % 3.6 % 5.2 % 6.5 %
Extraordinary income/loss 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Earnings before taxes 2.8 % 3.1 % 3.4 % 3.5 % 3.6 % 5.2 % 6.5 %
Tax rate 28.1 % 28.8 % 35.0 % 32.4 % 27.2 % 27.2 % 27.2 %
Net income from continuing operations 2.0 % 2.2 % 2.2 % 2.4 % 2.6 % 3.8 % 4.8 %
Income from discontinued operations (net of tax) 0.4 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Net income 1.7 % 2.1 % 2.1 % 2.4 % 2.6 % 3.8 % 4.8 %
Minority interest 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.1 % 0.2 % 0.2 %
Net income (net of minority interest) 1.6 % 2.1 % 2.1 % 2.4 % 2.5 % 3.6 % 4.6 %
Balance sheet (EUR m) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E
Intangible assets 42.5 39.6 41.2 55.3 107.0 101.0 97.5
Property, plant and equipment 9.7 12.9 17.6 20.5 31.9 34.2 37.3
Financial assets 3.2 2.2 5.0 35.0 6.0 6.0 6.0
FIXED ASSETS 55.4 54.6 63.8 110.8 144.9 141.2 140.7
Inventories 13.4 15.0 8.7 15.5 15.4 16.8 17.6
Accounts receivable 68.0 72.2 88.3 112.9 120.0 126.5 132.7
Other current assets 6.4 7.2 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1
Liquid assets 31.5 44.4 44.6 77.7 103.3 122.7 155.8
Deferred taxes 0.7 0.6 1.1 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8
Deferred charges and prepaid expenses 2.0 0.9 1.1 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7
CURRENT ASSETS 122.0 140.2 144.8 210.7 243.2 270.5 310.6
TOTAL ASSETS 177.4 194.9 208.6 321.5 388.1 411.6 451.3
SHAREHOLDERS EQUITY 50.9 60.7 80.6 162.8 159.9 183.9 217.7
MINORITY INTEREST 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 17.9 19.3 20.8
Long-term debt 29.0 16.7 14.1 14.4 62.0 53.2 52.2
Provisions for pensions and similar obligations 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Other provisions 3.2 7.6 5.1 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4
Non-current liabilities 32.2 24.4 19.3 18.9 66.5 57.7 56.7
short-term liabilities to banks 1.6 9.1 1.3 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8
Accounts payable 64.4 72.9 76.9 99.0 103.1 110.1 115.5
Advance payments received on orders 1.5 1.9 3.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6
Other liabilities (incl. from lease and rental contracts) 16.3 17.4 18.8 23.5 23.5 23.5 23.5
Deferred taxes 4.3 2.7 2.8 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2
Deferred income 6.0 5.6 5.1 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6
Current liabilities 94.2 109.6 108.6 139.7 143.8 150.8 156.2
TOTAL LIABILITIES AND SHAREHOLDERS EQUITY 177.4 194.9 208.6 321.5 388.1 411.6 451.3
Balance sheet (common size) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E
Intangible assets 24.0 % 20.3 % 19.8 % 17.2 % 27.6 % 24.5 % 21.6 %
Property, plant and equipment 5.5 % 6.6 % 8.4 % 6.4 % 8.2 % 8.3 % 8.3 %
Financial assets 1.8 % 1.1 % 2.4 % 10.9 % 1.5 % 1.5 % 1.3 %
FIXED ASSETS 31.2 % 28.0 % 30.6 % 34.5 % 37.3 % 34.3 % 31.2 %
Inventories 7.5 % 7.7 % 4.2 % 4.8 % 4.0 % 4.1 % 3.9 %
Accounts receivable 38.3 % 37.1 % 42.3 % 35.1 % 30.9 % 30.7 % 29.4 %
Other current assets 3.6 % 3.7 % 0.4 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.2 %
Liquid assets 17.7 % 22.8 % 21.4 % 24.2 % 26.6 % 29.8 % 34.5 %
Deferred taxes 0.4 % 0.3 % 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.4 % 0.4 %
Deferred charges and prepaid expenses 1.1 % 0.4 % 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 %
CURRENT ASSETS 68.8 % 72.0 % 69.4 % 65.5 % 62.7 % 65.7 % 68.8 %
TOTAL ASSETS 100.0 % 100.0 % 100.0 % 100.0 % 100.0 % 100.0 % 100.0 %
SHAREHOLDERS EQUITY 28.7 % 31.2 % 38.6 % 50.6 % 41.2 % 44.7 % 48.2 %
MINORITY INTEREST 0.0 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.0 % 4.6 % 4.7 % 4.6 %
Long-term debt 16.3 % 8.6 % 6.8 % 4.5 % 16.0 % 12.9 % 11.6 %
Provisions for pensions and similar obligations 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.1 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Other provisions 1.8 % 3.9 % 2.4 % 1.4 % 1.1 % 1.1 % 1.0 %
Non-current liabilities 18.2 % 12.5 % 9.3 % 5.9 % 17.1 % 14.0 % 12.6 %
short-term liabilities to banks 0.9 % 4.7 % 0.6 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 %
Accounts payable 36.3 % 37.4 % 36.9 % 30.8 % 26.6 % 26.7 % 25.6 %
Advance payments received on orders 0.9 % 1.0 % 1.7 % 2.0 % 1.7 % 1.6 % 1.5 %
Other liabilities (incl. from lease and rental contracts) 9.2 % 9.0 % 9.0 % 7.3 % 6.1 % 5.7 % 5.2 %
Deferred taxes 2.4 % 1.4 % 1.4 % 1.6 % 1.3 % 1.3 % 1.2 %
Deferred income 3.4 % 2.9 % 2.4 % 1.4 % 1.2 % 1.1 % 1.0 %
Current liabilities 53.1 % 56.2 % 52.0 % 43.4 % 37.0 % 36.6 % 34.6 %
TOTAL LIABILITIES AND SHAREHOLDERS EQUITY 100.0 % 100.0 % 100.0 % 100.0 % 100.0 % 100.0 % 100.0 %
Cash flow statement (EUR m) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E
Net profit/loss 7.9 11.7 11.6 14.5 20.7 32.1 42.7
Depreciation of fixed assets (incl. leases) 3.8 2.8 4.0 5.5 8.3 8.7 9.5
Amortisation of goodwill 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Amortisation of intangible assets 0.0 3.7 3.4 5.0 15.7 11.9 9.2
Others 3.0 4.7 2.9 3.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cash flow from operations before changes in w/c 14.7 22.9 21.9 28.5 44.7 52.7 61.4
Increase/decrease in inventory 0.3 -6.3 6.2 -6.7 0.1 -1.4 -0.8
Increase/decrease in accounts receivable -15.2 -5.2 -16.1 -24.7 -7.0 -6.5 -6.2
Increase/decrease in accounts payable 17.1 15.3 4.0 22.1 4.1 7.0 5.4
Increase/decrease in other working capital positions 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Increase/decrease in working capital 2.2 3.8 -5.8 -9.3 -2.8 -0.9 -1.6
Cash flow from operating activities 16.9 26.7 16.1 19.2 41.9 51.8 59.8
CAPEX 8.1 9.4 12.5 8.1 24.1 15.2 16.6
Payments for acquisitions 10.5 3.6 0.1 1.4 30.0 1.7 1.7
Financial investments -0.1 -0.3 0.0 26.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Income from asset disposals 1.1 4.8 2.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cash flow from investing activities -17.3 -7.9 -10.6 -35.2 -54.1 -16.9 -18.2
Cash flow before financing -0.4 18.8 5.5 -16.0 -12.2 34.9 41.6
Increase/decrease in debt position 8.1 -2.6 -11.9 -1.1 45.0 -8.8 -1.0
Purchase of own shares -0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Capital measures 0.0 0.0 11.2 54.6 0.0 0.0 0.0
Dividends paid 1.5 1.6 3.3 4.0 5.8 6.7 7.4
Others -1.3 -1.6 -1.4 -0.3 -1.4 0.0 0.0
Effects of exchange rate changes on cash 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cash flow from financing activities 5.9 -5.8 -5.3 49.1 37.8 -15.5 -8.4
Increase/decrease in liquid assets 5.6 13.0 0.2 33.1 25.5 19.4 33.1
Liquid assets at end of period 31.5 44.5 44.6 77.7 103.3 122.7 155.8

Source: Company data, Hauck & Aufhäuser

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E
0.0
n/a
32.9 42.4 29.0 30.7 39.2 41.0 0.0
-9.6 % 28.9 % -31.7 % 6.0 % 27.8 % 4.6 % n/a
n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 0.0
n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 0.0
n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 0.0
n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
474.6 544.4 558.1 613.8 800.7 855.0 0.0
12.3 % 14.7 % 2.5 % 10.0 % 30.5 % 6.8 % n/a
441.7
14.4 %
502.0
13.7 %
529.1
5.4 %
583.1
10.2 %
761.5
30.6 %
814.0
6.9 %
Key ratios (EUR m) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E
P&L growth analysis
Sales growth 36.2 % 14.7 % 2.5 % 10.0 % 30.5 % 6.8 % 4.9 %
EBITDA growth 100.7 % 31.6 % 12.2 % 18.9 % 59.2 % 21.8 % 19.2 %
EBIT growth 114.0 % 21.7 % 12.0 % 9.6 % 28.7 % 51.5 % 32.5 %
EPS growth 55.5 % 46.4 % -2.1 % 13.7 % 8.3 % 54.1 % 34.6 %
Efficiency
Total operating costs / sales 96.3 % 95.6 % 95.4 % 94.6 % 93.5 % 92.5 % 91.5 %
Sales per employee 257.7 273.1 270.9 289.1 360.7 369.3 760.2
EBITDA per employee 10.3 12.5 13.6 15.7 23.9 28.0 65.4
Balance sheet analysis
Avg. working capital / sales 2.8 % 2.6 % 2.6 % 3.2 % 3.0 % 3.1 % 3.1 %
Inventory turnover (sales/inventory) 35.5 36.3 63.8 39.6 52.0 51.0 51.0
Trade debtors in days of sales 52.3 48.4 57.7 67.2 54.7 54.0 54.0
A/P turnover [(A/P*365)/sales] 49.6 48.9 50.3 58.9 47.0 47.0 47.0
Cash conversion cycle (days) -3.1 -6.3 -5.3 -3.9 -6.9 -7.7 -8.0
Cash flow analysis
Free cash flow 8.8 17.3 3.6 11.1 17.8 36.6 43.2
Free cash flow/sales 1.9 % 3.2 % 0.6 % 1.8 % 2.2 % 4.3 % 4.8 %
FCF / net profit 113.1 % 150.3 % 31.4 % 76.2 % 90.2 % 119.4 % 104.7 %
Capex / depn 206.6 % 139.0 % 169.0 % 318.6 % 100.4 % 73.8 % 88.7 %
Capex / maintenance capex 133.1 % 151.6 % n/a 112.8 % 172.8 % 100.0 % 114.2 %
Capex / sales 1.7 % 1.7 % n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Security
Net debt -0.9 -18.5 -29.2 -62.5 -40.5 -68.7 -102.9
Net Debt/EBITDA 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Net debt / equity
Interest cover
0.0
8.0
-0.3
8.3
-0.4
9.7
-0.4
16.5
-0.3
20.8
-0.4
44.2
-0.5
65.0
Dividend payout ratio 19.7 % 26.7 % 34.7 % 40.2 % 34.0 % 24.3 % 24.3 %
Asset utilisation
Capital employed turnover 5.6 5.8 5.5 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.0
Operating assets turnover 18.9 21.5 16.4 14.2 13.9 14.1 13.7
Plant turnover 49.0 42.2 31.8 30.0 25.1 25.0 24.1
Inventory turnover (sales/inventory) 35.5 36.3 63.8 39.6 52.0 51.0 51.0
Returns
ROCE 19.5 % 20.6 % 21.1 % 16.0 % 13.6 % 17.4 % 21.0 %
ROE 15.4 % 19.0 % 14.2 % 8.9 % 12.3 % 16.7 % 19.0 %
Other
Interest paid / avg. debt 7.2 % 7.9 % 10.3 % 9.0 % 3.6 % 1.7 % 1.7 %
No. employees (average) 1842 1994 2060 2123 2220 2315 1180
Number of shares 10.3 10.4 10.6 11.8 14.7 14.9 14.9
DPS 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7
EPS reported 0.76 1.11 1.09 1.23 1.34 2.06 2.77
Valuation ratios
P/BV 7.6 6.4 5.3 3.4 3.5 3.0 2.6
EV/sales 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.5
EV/EBITDA 20.2 14.6 14.1 14.5 9.7 7.5 5.9
EV/EBITA 25.3 16.5 16.5 17.4 11.5 8.7 6.7
EV/EBIT 25.3 19.8 19.2 21.4 17.7 11.1 7.8
EV/FCF 43.4 21.1 110.0 43.8 29.1 13.3 10.5
Adjusted FCF yield 3.0 % 4.3 % 3.9 % 4.4 % 6.5 % 8.4 % 10.9 %
Dividend yield 0.4 % 0.8 % 0.9 % 1.1 % 1.2 % 1.3 % 1.8 %

Disclosures regarding research publications of Hauck & Aufhäuser Institutional Research AG pursuant to section 34b of the German Securities Trading Act (WpHG) and the regulations of the German Financial Analysis Ordinance (FinAnV)

Pursuant to section 34b of the German Securities Trading Act (WpHG) and section 5 of the Financial Analysis Ordinance (FinAnV) a research report has to point out possible conflicts of interest in connection with the analysed company. A conflict of interest is presumed to exist in particular if Hauck & Aufhäuser Institutional Research AG

  • (1) or its affiliate(s) was, within the past twelve months, a member in a consortium that acquired the financial instruments of the analysed company,
  • (2) has entered into an agreement on the production of the research report with the analysed company,
  • (3) or its affiliate(s) has, within the past twelve months, been party to an agreement on the provision of investment banking services with the analysed company or have received services or a promise of services under the term of such an agreement,
  • (4) or its affiliate(s) holds 5% or more of the share capital of the analysed company,
  • (5) or its affiliate(s) regularly holds a trading position in shares of the analysed company or derivatives thereof,
  • (6) or its affiliate(s) manages the financial instruments of the analysed company on the basis of an existing contractual relationship,
  • (7) or the analyst has any other significant financial interests relating to the analysed company such as, for example, exercising mandates in the interest of the analysed company.
  • (8) The research report has been made available to the company prior to its publication. Thereafter, only factual changes have been made to the report.

Conflicts of interest that existed at the time when this research report was published:

Company Disclosure
CANCOM SE 2, 3, 5, 7
Buy 63.48 % 100.00 %
Sell 13.04 % 0.00 %
Hold 23.48 % 0.00 %

1. General Information/Liabilities

This research report has been produced for the information purposes of institutional investors only, and is not in any way a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell the financial instruments mentioned herein. The document is confidential and is made available by Hauck & Aufhäuser Institutional Research AG (the ʺCompanyʺ), a majority-owned subsidiary of Hauck & Aufhäuser Privatbankiers KGaA, exclusively to selected recipients [in DE, GB, FR, CH, US, Scandinavia, and Benelux or, in individual cases, also in other countries]. A distribution to private investors in the sense of the German Securities Trading Act (WpHG) is excluded. It is not allowed to pass the research report on to persons other than the intended recipient without the permission of the Company. Reproduction of this document, in whole or in part, is not permitted without prior permission of the Company. All rights reserved.

Under no circumstances shall the Company, any of its employees involved in the preparation, and Hauck & Aufhäuser Privatbankiers KGaA have any liability for possible errors or incompleteness of the information included in this research report – neither in relation to indirect or direct nor consequential damages. Liability for damages arising either directly or as a consequence of the use of information, opinions and estimates is also excluded.

Past performance of a financial instrument is not necessarily indicative of future performance.

2. Responsibilities

This research report was prepared by the research analyst named on the front page (the ʺProducerʺ). The Producer is solely responsible for the views and estimates expressed in this report. The report has been prepared independently, i.e. the content of which was not independently examined by the Company or Hauck & Aufhäuser Privatbankiers KGaA.

The estimates and views in this financial report may deviate from those of Hauck & Aufhäuser Privatbankiers KGaA.

The content of the research report was not influenced by the issuer of the analysed financial instrument at any time. It may be possible that parts of the research report were handed out to the issuer for information purposes prior to the publication without any major amendments being made thereafter.

3. Organisational Requirements

The Company and Hauck & Aufhäuser Privatbankiers KGaA took internal organisational and regulative precautions to avoid or accordingly disclose possible conflicts of interest in connection with the preparation and distribution of the research report. All members of the Company involved in the preparation of the research report are subject to internal compliance regulations.

No part of the Producer's compensation is directly or indirectly related to the preparation of this financial analysis.

4. Information Concerning the Methods of Valuation/Update

The determination of the fair value per share, i.e. the price target, and the resultant recommendation is done on the basis of the adjusted free cash flow (adj. FCF) method and on the basis of the discounted cash flow – DCF model. Furthermore, a peer group comparison is made.

The adj. FCF method is based on the assumption that investors purchase assets only at a price (enterprise value) at which the operating cash flow return after taxes on this investment exceeds their opportunity costs in the form of a hurdle rate of 7.5%. The operating cash flow is calculated as EBITDA less maintenance capex and taxes.

Within the framework of the DCF approach, the future free cash flows are calculated initially on the basis of a fictitious capital structure of 100% equity, i.e. interest and repayments on debt capital are not factored in initially. The adjustment towards the actual capital structure is done by discounting the calculated free cash flows with the weighted average cost of capital (WACC), which takes into account both the cost of equity capital and the cost of debt. After discounting, the calculated total enterprise value is reduced by the interest-bearing debt capital in order to arrive at the equity value.

Hauck & Aufhäuser Institutional Research uses the following three-step rating system for the analysed companies:

Buy: Sustainable upside potential of more than 10% within 12 months Sell: Sustainable downside potential of more than 10% within 12 months. Hold: Upside/downside potential is limited. No immediate catalyst visible.

NB: The recommendations of Hauck & Aufhäuser Institutional Research are not based on a performance that is expected to be "relative" to the market.

The decision on the choice of the financial instruments analysed in this document was solely made by the Company. The opinions and estimates in this research report are subject to change without notice. It is within the discretion of the Company whether and when it publishes an update to this research report.

5. Major Sources of Information

Part of the information required for this research report was made available by the issuer of the financial instrument. Furthermore, this report is based on publicly available sources (such as, for example, Bloomberg, Reuters, VWD-Trader and the relevant daily press) believed to be reliable. The Company has checked the information for plausibility but not for accuracy or completeness.

6. Competent Supervisory Authority

The Company and Hauck & Aufhäuser Privatbankiers KGaA are under supervision of the BaFin – German Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht), Graurheindorfer Straße 108, 53117 Bonn and Marie-Curie-Straße 24 – 28, 60439 Frankfurt a.M.

7. Specific Comments for Recipients Outside of Germany

This research report is subject to the law of the Federal Republic of Germany. The distribution of this information to other states in particular to the USA, Canada, Australia and Japan may be restricted or prohibited by the laws applicable within this state.

This document is only being distributed to and is only directed at (i) persons who are outside the United Kingdom or (ii) to investment professionals falling within Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (the "Order") or (iii) high net worth entities, and other persons to whom it may lawfully be communicated, falling within Article 49(2)(a) to (d) of the Order. This document shall not be made available - whether directly or indirectly - to another group of people in or from the United Kingdom.

Contacts: Hauck&Aufhäuser Investment Banking

Hauck & Aufhäuser Research

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Lars Dannenberg Analyst Tel.: +49 (0)40 414 3885 - 92 E-Mail: [email protected]

Philippe Lorrain

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Tim Wunderlich, CFA

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Michael Bentlage

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Mirko Brueggemann

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Nils-Peter Gehrmann Analyst Tel.: +49 (0)40 414 3885 - 86 E-Mail: [email protected]

Christian Schwenkenbecher Analyst Tel.: +49 (0)40 414 3885 - 76 E-Mail: [email protected] Henning Breiter Analyst Tel.: +49 (0)40 414 3885 - 73 E-Mail: [email protected]

Christian Glowa Analyst Tel.: +49 (0)40 414 3885 - 95 E-Mail: [email protected]

Torben Teichler Analyst Tel.: +49 (0)40 414 3885 - 74 E-Mail: [email protected]

James Bonsor, CFA Sales Tel.: +44 207 408 1100 E-Mail: [email protected]

Hugues Madelin Sales Tel.: +33 1 78 41 40 62 E-Mail: [email protected] Hamish Edsell Sales Tel.: +44 207 125 0988 E-Mail: [email protected]

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Jeronimo Bremer

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Tel.: +49 (0) 69 2161- 0 Fax: +49 (0) 69 2161- 1340 Email: [email protected] www.hauck-aufhaeuser.de

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