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CANCOM SE — Investor Presentation 2013
Jun 20, 2013
71_rns_2013-06-20_077d64a1-cafa-4916-8891-60a79f95d5a8.pdf
Investor Presentation
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CANCOM SE Germany - IT Services
| Buy (old: Buy) | 20-June-13 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price target: EUR 22.50 | (old: EUR 22.50) | Tim Wunderlich, CFA Analyst |
||
| Price: | EUR 17.19 | Next result: | Q2 13: 13.08.13 | |
| Bloomberg: | COK GR | Market cap: | EUR 195.1 m | [email protected] |
| Reuters: | COKG.DE | Enterprise Value: | EUR 145.4 m | Tel.: +49 40 4143885 81 |
Growing footprint in Cloud Computing to drive re-rating
Recent news flow has underpinned the attractiveness of the Cloud Computing market, where CANCOM is set to benefit given its growing footprint for Private Cloud installations amongst German SME customers.
First, IBM has acquired SoftLayer (FY' 13E: c. \$ 450m sales), a leading cloud infrastructure provider including computing and storage capacity as well as managed hosting. At a purchase price of \$ 2bn, SoftLayer is valued at c. 9x forward EV/EBITDA (vs. 4.8x for CANCOM), according to various sources (no public data available). However, keep in mind that SoftLayer likely has high capex and hence high D&A given that it operates its own data centre resources – hence the transaction multiple on EV/EBIT and PER should be much higher.
Second, the NSA internet surveillance scandal should have strengthened the partial "closed shop" nature of the German Cloud Computing market: Fearing for the security of their data, German SMEs are looking for home-grown providers with a long-standing reputation and domestic data centres – favouring CANCOM which has long-standing ties to some 25,000 German SMEs. This makes it an appealing take-over target, in our view.
On top of this, CANCOM has a unique competitive position in the market for Private Clouds – which is basically a cloud solution dedicated to one customer. The company's one-of-a-kind AHP Private Cloud is a standardised and automated "out-of-the-box" Private Cloud architecture, which makes the implementation of a cloud solution faster, more cost-efficient and more transparent (concerning duration and cost). In contrast, rivals such as Bechtle or Computacenter need to fall back to a slower and more costly manual approach.
The AHP Private Cloud solution is hence a key positive differentiator for CANCOM and consequently the company is seeing very strong demand - more than it can handle currently. CANCOM is hence well on track to achieve cloudrelated and recurring EBITDA of € 10m by 2015E (some 27% of group EBITDA). This is not fully reflected in our estimates. – continued –
| Y/E 31.12 (EUR m) | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013E | 2014E | 2015E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | 348.3 | 474.6 | 544.4 | 558.1 | 591.0 | 622.0 | 643.8 |
| Sales growth | 2 % | 36 % | 15 % | 3 % | 6 % | 5 % | 4 % |
| EBITDA | 9.5 | 19.0 | 25.0 | 28.1 | 30.6 | 33.6 | 36.7 |
| EBIT | 7.1 | 15.2 | 18.5 | 20.7 | 22.6 | 25.2 | 28.4 |
| Net income | 5.1 | 7.8 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 15.2 | 17.4 | 19.4 |
| Net debt | -3.5 | -0.9 | -18.5 | -29.2 | -49.8 | -60.8 | -73.8 |
| Net gearing | -8.0 % | -1.8 % | -30.4 % | -36.3 % | -54.3 % | -58.1 % | -61.8 % |
| Net Debt/EBITDA | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| EPS fully diluted | 0.49 | 0.76 | 1.11 | 1.00 | 1.33 | 1.52 | 1.70 |
| CPS | 0.80 | 1.28 | 2.18 | 0.98 | 2.54 | 1.75 | 1.70 |
| DPS | 0.15 | 0.15 | 0.30 | 0.35 | 0.40 | 0.40 | 0.45 |
| Dividend yield | 0.9 % | 0.9 % | 1.7 % | 2.0 % | 2.3 % | 2.3 % | 2.6 % |
| Gross profit margin | 31.0 % | 29.3 % | 29.1 % | 29.5 % | 30.1 % | 30.3 % | 30.6 % |
| EBITDA margin | 2.7 % | 4.0 % | 4.6 % | 5.0 % | 5.2 % | 5.4 % | 5.7 % |
| EBIT margin | 2.0 % | 3.2 % | 3.4 % | 3.7 % | 3.8 % | 4.1 % | 4.4 % |
| ROCE | 10.5 % | 19.5 % | 20.6 % | 21.1 % | 21.6 % | 22.0 % | 22.0 % |
| EV/sales | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| EV/EBITDA | 18.4 | 9.2 | 6.3 | 5.9 | 4.8 | 4.0 | 3.3 |
| EV/EBIT | 24.6 | 11.6 | 8.6 | 8.0 | 6.4 | 5.3 | 4.3 |
| PER | 35.7 | 18.6 | 15.1 | 16.2 | 12.9 | 11.3 | 10.1 |
| Adjusted FCF yield | 3.5 % | 6.6 % | 10.0 % | 10.1 % | 13.2 % | 15.8 % | 17.1 % |
Source: Company data, Hauck & Aufhäuser Close price as of: 19.06.2013
Source: Company data, Hauck & Aufhäuser
| High/low 52 weeks: | 18.11 / 10.78 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price/Book Ratio: | 2.1 | ||||||
| Relative performance (TecDAX): | |||||||
| 3 months | 8.7 % | ||||||
| 6 months | 9.2 % | ||||||
| 12 months | -7.1 % |
Changes in estimates
| Sales | EBIT | EPS | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | old: | 591.0 | 22.6 | 1.33 |
| ∆ | - | - | - | |
| old: | 622.0 | 25.2 | 1.52 | |
| 2014 | ∆ | - | - | - |
| old: | 643.8 | 28.4 | 1.70 | |
| 2015 | ∆ | - | - | - |
Key share data:
| Number of shares: (in m pcs) | 11.4 |
|---|---|
| Authorised capital: (in € m) | 4.0 |
| Book value per share: (in €) | 8.0 |
| Ø trading volume: (12 months) | 60,000 |
Major shareholders:
| Free Float | 72.2 % |
|---|---|
| Karin Schick | 10.2 % |
| Elber Beteiligung | 9.2 % |
| AGI | 4.7 % |
| Stefan Kober | 2.3 % |
| Klaus Weinmann | 1.5 % |
Company description:
CANCOM is Germany's 3rd largest independent system house operating a scalable eCommerce business.
Despite this, CANCOM is still valued as a common IT System House rather than an emerging cloud player:
- It is trading at an 11% discount on EV/EBIT '13E to its traditional peer Bechtle which however does not have a proprietary cloud solution.
- It is valued at massive discounts to Cloud Computing peers like Rackspace and Equinix, which are trading at 44x earnings '14E and 42x earnings '14E, respectively.
In light of the above, Mr. Schick's (the founder of Bechtle) 10% stake in CANCOM could also act as a "poison pill" to ward off potential take-over offers for CANCOM, which would mean heavier competition for Bechtle. In our view, Mr. Schick should be looking to further increase his stake, supporting news flow.
The stock remains a BUY with a PT of € 22.50 based on a conservative DCF model (3.5% terminal year EBIT margin) The FCFY model would result in fair values of above € 25 already for 2013E.
Financials
| Profit and loss (EUR m) | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013E | 2014E | 2015E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales | 348.3 | 474.6 | 544.4 | 558.1 | 591.0 | 622.0 | 643.8 |
| Sales growth | 1.6 % | 36.2 % | 14.7 % | 2.5 % | 5.9 % | 5.2 % | 3.5 % |
| Increase/decrease in finished goods and work-in-process | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Total sales | 349.3 | 475.8 | 545.3 | 560.6 | 592.0 | 623.0 | 644.8 |
| Other operating income | 2.3 | 3.3 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Material expenses | 241.1 | 336.3 | 386.6 | 395.1 | 414.0 | 434.1 | 447.3 |
| Personnel expenses | 79.2 | 97.0 | 108.0 | 112.4 | 119.0 | 125.7 | 130.1 |
| Other operating expenses | 21.8 | 26.8 | 26.4 | 25.8 | 28.8 | 30.1 | 31.2 |
| Total operating expenses | 339.8 | 456.8 | 520.3 | 532.5 | 561.4 | 589.4 | 608.1 |
| EBITDA | 9.5 | 19.0 | 25.0 | 28.1 | 30.6 | 33.6 | 36.7 |
| Depreciation | 2.4 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 4.0 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 5.3 |
| EBITA | 7.1 | 15.2 | 22.2 | 24.0 | 25.8 | 28.6 | 31.4 |
| Amortisation of goodwill | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Amortisation of intangible assets | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 3.0 |
| Impairment charges | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| EBIT | 7.1 | 15.2 | 18.5 | 20.7 | 22.6 | 25.2 | 28.4 |
| Interest income | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.7 |
| Interest expenses | 1.3 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Other financial result | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| Financial result | -1.1 | -1.8 | -1.6 | -1.8 | -0.6 | -0.1 | -0.4 |
| Recurring pretax income from continuing operations | 5.9 | 13.3 | 16.9 | 18.9 | 22.0 | 25.1 | 28.0 |
| Extraordinary income/loss | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Earnings before taxes | 5.9 | 13.3 | 16.9 | 18.9 | 22.0 | 25.1 | 28.0 |
| Taxes | 0.9 | 3.7 | 4.9 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 7.5 | 8.4 |
| Net income from continuing operations | 5.0 | 9.6 | 12.0 | 12.3 | 15.4 | 17.6 | 19.6 |
| Result from discontinued operations (net of tax) | -0.1 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Net income | 5.1 | 7.9 | 11.7 | 11.6 | 15.4 | 17.6 | 19.6 |
| Minority interest | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Net income (net of minority interest) | 5.1 | 7.8 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 15.2 | 17.4 | 19.4 |
| Average number of shares | 10.4 | 10.3 | 10.4 | 10.6 | 11.4 | 11.4 | 11.4 |
| EPS reported | 0.49 | 0.76 | 1.11 | 1.09 | 1.33 | 1.52 | 1.70 |
| Profit and loss (common size) | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013E | 2014E | 2015E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % |
| Increase/decrease in finished goods and work-in-process | 0.3 % | 0.3 % | 0.2 % | 0.5 % | 0.2 % | 0.2 % | 0.2 % |
| Total sales | 100.3 % | 100.3 % | 100.2 % | 100.5 % | 100.2 % | 100.2 % | 100.2 % |
| Other operating income | 0.6 % | 0.7 % | 0.1 % | 0.1 % | 0.1 % | 0.1 % | 0.1 % |
| Material expenses | 69.2 % | 70.9 % | 71.0 % | 70.8 % | 70.1 % | 69.8 % | 69.5 % |
| Personnel expenses | 22.7 % | 20.4 % | 19.8 % | 20.1 % | 20.1 % | 20.2 % | 20.2 % |
| Other operating expenses | 6.3 % | 5.7 % | 4.8 % | 4.6 % | 4.9 % | 4.8 % | 4.8 % |
| Total operating expenses | 97.6 % | 96.3 % | 95.6 % | 95.4 % | 95.0 % | 94.8 % | 94.5 % |
| EBITDA | 2.7 % | 4.0 % | 4.6 % | 5.0 % | 5.2 % | 5.4 % | 5.7 % |
| Depreciation | 0.7 % | 0.8 % | 0.5 % | 0.7 % | 0.8 % | 0.8 % | 0.8 % |
| EBITA | 2.0 % | 3.2 % | 4.1 % | 4.3 % | 4.4 % | 4.6 % | 4.9 % |
| Amortisation of goodwill | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % |
| Amortisation of intangible assets | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.7 % | 0.6 % | 0.5 % | 0.5 % | 0.5 % |
| Impairment charges | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % |
| EBIT | 2.0 % | 3.2 % | 3.4 % | 3.7 % | 3.8 % | 4.1 % | 4.4 % |
| Interest income | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.1 % | 0.1 % | 0.1 % | 0.1 % | 0.1 % |
| Interest expenses | 0.4 % | 0.4 % | 0.4 % | 0.4 % | 0.3 % | 0.2 % | 0.2 % |
| Other financial result | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.1 % | 0.0 % | 0.1 % | 0.1 % | 0.0 % |
| Financial result | -0.3 % | -0.4 % | -0.3 % | -0.3 % | -0.1 % | 0.0 % | -0.1 % |
| Recurring pretax income from continuing operations | 1.7 % | 2.8 % | 3.1 % | 3.4 % | 3.7 % | 4.0 % | 4.3 % |
| Extraordinary income/loss | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % |
| Earnings before taxes | 1.7 % | 2.8 % | 3.1 % | 3.4 % | 3.7 % | 4.0 % | 4.3 % |
| Tax rate | 15.6 % | 28.1 % | 28.8 % | 35.0 % | 30.0 % | 30.0 % | 30.0 % |
| Net income from continuing operations | 1.4 % | 2.0 % | 2.2 % | 2.2 % | 2.6 % | 2.8 % | 3.0 % |
| Income from discontinued operations (net of tax) | 0.0 % | 0.4 % | 0.1 % | 0.1 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % |
| Net income | 1.5 % | 1.7 % | 2.1 % | 2.1 % | 2.6 % | 2.8 % | 3.0 % |
| Minority interest | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % |
| Net income (net of minority interest) | 1.5 % | 1.6 % | 2.1 % | 2.1 % | 2.6 % | 2.8 % | 3.0 % |
CANCOM SE
| Balance sheet (EUR m) | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013E | 2014E | 2015E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Intangible assets | 31.5 | 42.5 | 39.6 | 41.2 | 41.0 | 40.6 | 40.6 |
| Property, plant and equipment | 6.5 | 9.7 | 12.9 | 17.6 | 19.4 | 21.4 | 23.1 |
| Financial assets | 0.2 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 |
| FIXED ASSETS | 38.2 | 55.4 | 54.6 | 63.8 | 65.4 | 67.0 | 68.7 |
| Inventories | 12.6 | 13.4 | 15.0 | 8.7 | 15.8 | 16.6 | 17.2 |
| Accounts receivable | 47.2 | 68.0 | 72.2 | 88.3 | 76.1 | 80.1 | 82.9 |
| Other current assets | 5.1 | 6.4 | 7.2 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| Liquid assets | 25.8 | 31.5 | 44.4 | 44.6 | 60.7 | 71.7 | 84.7 |
| Deferred taxes | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Deferred charges and prepaid expenses | 3.4 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| CURRENT ASSETS | 96.7 | 122.0 | 140.2 | 144.8 | 155.8 | 171.5 | 187.9 |
| TOTAL ASSETS | 134.9 | 177.4 | 194.9 | 208.6 | 221.2 | 238.5 | 256.6 |
| SHAREHOLDERS EQUITY | 43.9 | 50.9 | 60.7 | 80.6 | 91.8 | 104.6 | 119.5 |
| MINORITY INTEREST | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Long-term debt | 21.6 | 29.0 | 16.7 | 14.1 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 6.4 |
| Provisions for pensions and similar obligations | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Other provisions | 4.3 | 3.2 | 7.6 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.1 |
| Non-current liabilities | 26.0 | 32.2 | 24.4 | 19.3 | 11.6 | 11.6 | 11.6 |
| short-term liabilities to banks | 0.7 | 1.6 | 9.1 | 1.3 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 |
| Accounts payable | 47.9 | 64.4 | 72.9 | 76.9 | 82.6 | 86.9 | 90.0 |
| Advance payments received on orders | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.6 |
| Other liabilities (incl. from lease and rental contracts) | 10.7 | 16.3 | 17.4 | 18.8 | 18.8 | 18.8 | 18.8 |
| Deferred taxes | 2.0 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.8 |
| Deferred income | 2.7 | 6.0 | 5.6 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.1 |
| Current liabilities | 65.0 | 94.2 | 109.6 | 108.6 | 117.4 | 121.7 | 124.8 |
| TOTAL LIABILITIES AND SHAREHOLDERS EQUITY | 134.9 | 177.4 | 194.9 | 208.6 | 221.2 | 238.5 | 256.6 |
| Balance sheet (common size) | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013E | 2014E | 2015E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Intangible assets | 23.4 % | 24.0 % | 20.3 % | 19.8 % | 18.5 % | 17.0 % | 15.8 % |
| Property, plant and equipment | 4.8 % | 5.5 % | 6.6 % | 8.4 % | 8.7 % | 9.0 % | 9.0 % |
| Financial assets | 0.1 % | 1.8 % | 1.1 % | 2.4 % | 2.3 % | 2.1 % | 2.0 % |
| FIXED ASSETS | 28.3 % | 31.2 % | 28.0 % | 30.6 % | 29.6 % | 28.1 % | 26.8 % |
| Inventories | 9.3 % | 7.5 % | 7.7 % | 4.2 % | 7.1 % | 7.0 % | 6.7 % |
| Accounts receivable | 35.0 % | 38.3 % | 37.1 % | 42.3 % | 34.4 % | 33.6 % | 32.3 % |
| Other current assets | 3.8 % | 3.6 % | 3.7 % | 0.4 % | 0.4 % | 0.4 % | 0.4 % |
| Liquid assets | 19.2 % | 17.7 % | 22.8 % | 21.4 % | 27.5 % | 30.0 % | 33.0 % |
| Deferred taxes | 1.9 % | 0.4 % | 0.3 % | 0.5 % | 0.5 % | 0.5 % | 0.4 % |
| Deferred charges and prepaid expenses | 2.5 % | 1.1 % | 0.4 % | 0.5 % | 0.5 % | 0.5 % | 0.4 % |
| CURRENT ASSETS | 71.7 % | 68.8 % | 72.0 % | 69.4 % | 70.4 % | 71.9 % | 73.2 % |
| TOTAL ASSETS | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % |
| SHAREHOLDERS EQUITY | 32.5 % | 28.7 % | 31.2 % | 38.6 % | 41.5 % | 43.9 % | 46.6 % |
| MINORITY INTEREST | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.1 % | 0.1 % | 0.2 % | 0.2 % | 0.3 % |
| Long-term debt | 16.0 % | 16.3 % | 8.6 % | 6.8 % | 2.9 % | 2.7 % | 2.5 % |
| Provisions for pensions and similar obligations | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.1 % | 0.1 % | 0.1 % | 0.0 % |
| Other provisions | 3.2 % | 1.8 % | 3.9 % | 2.4 % | 2.3 % | 2.1 % | 2.0 % |
| Non-current liabilities | 19.3 % | 18.2 % | 12.5 % | 9.3 % | 5.2 % | 4.9 % | 4.5 % |
| short-term liabilities to banks | 0.5 % | 0.9 % | 4.7 % | 0.6 % | 2.0 % | 1.9 % | 1.8 % |
| Accounts payable | 35.5 % | 36.3 % | 37.4 % | 36.9 % | 37.3 % | 36.4 % | 35.1 % |
| Advance payments received on orders | 0.8 % | 0.9 % | 1.0 % | 1.7 % | 1.6 % | 1.5 % | 1.4 % |
| Other liabilities (incl. from lease and rental contracts) | 7.9 % | 9.2 % | 9.0 % | 9.0 % | 8.5 % | 7.9 % | 7.3 % |
| Deferred taxes | 1.5 % | 2.4 % | 1.4 % | 1.4 % | 1.3 % | 1.2 % | 1.1 % |
| Deferred income | 2.0 % | 3.4 % | 2.9 % | 2.4 % | 2.3 % | 2.1 % | 2.0 % |
| Current liabilities | 48.2 % | 53.1 % | 56.2 % | 52.0 % | 53.1 % | 51.0 % | 48.6 % |
| TOTAL LIABILITIES AND SHAREHOLDERS EQUITY | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % |
CANCOM SE
| 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013E | 2014E | 2015E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.1 | 7.9 | 11.7 | 11.6 | 15.4 | 17.6 | 19.6 |
| 2.4 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 4.0 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 5.3 |
| 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 3.0 |
| -0.6 | 3.0 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6.9 | 14.7 | 22.9 | 21.9 | 23.4 | 26.0 | 27.9 |
| -0.9 | 0.3 | -6.3 | 6.2 | -7.0 | -0.8 | -0.6 |
| 0.8 | -15.2 | -5.2 | -16.1 | 12.2 | -4.0 | -2.8 |
| 2.7 | 17.1 | 15.3 | 4.0 | 5.6 | 4.3 | 3.0 |
| 1.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 3.8 | 2.2 | 3.8 | -5.8 | 10.8 | -0.5 | -0.3 |
| 10.7 | 16.9 | 26.7 | 16.1 | 34.2 | 25.5 | 27.6 |
| 4.7 | 8.1 | 9.4 | 12.5 | 9.6 | 10.0 | 10.0 |
| 0.4 | 10.5 | 3.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| -0.2 | -0.1 | -0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2.3 | 1.1 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| -2.6 | -17.3 | -7.9 | -10.6 | -9.6 | -10.0 | -10.0 |
| 8.0 | -0.4 | 18.8 | 5.5 | 24.6 | 15.5 | 17.6 |
| 0.1 | 8.1 | -2.6 | -11.9 | -4.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.2 | -0.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 11.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.0 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 4.5 |
| -1.0 | -1.3 | -1.6 | -1.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| -1.1 | 5.9 | -5.8 | -5.3 | -8.5 | -4.5 | -4.5 |
| 7.0 | 5.6 | 13.0 | 0.2 | 16.1 | 10.9 | 13.0 |
| 25.8 | 31.5 | 44.5 | 44.6 | 60.7 | 71.7 | 84.7 |
Source: Company data, Hauck & Aufhäuser
| 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013E | 2014E | 2015E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0 | ||||||
| 19.8 % | 14.4 % | 13.7 % | 2.8 % | 6.1 % | 5.6 % | n/a |
| 36.4 | 32.9 | 42.4 | 41.9 | 43.1 | 43.5 | 0.0 |
| n/a | -9.6 % | 28.9 % | -1.3 % | 3.1 % | 0.9 % | n/a |
| 0.0 | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | 0.0 |
| n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| 0.0 | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | 0.0 |
| n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| 0.0 | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | 0.0 |
| n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| 422.5 | 474.6 | 544.4 | 558.1 | 591.0 | 622.0 | 0.0 |
| 31.1 % | 12.3 % | 14.7 % | 2.5 % | 5.9 % | 5.2 % | n/a |
| 386.1 | 441.7 | 502.0 | 516.2 | 547.9 | 578.5 |
CANCOM SE
| Key ratios (EUR m) | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013E | 2014E | 2015E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P&L growth analysis | |||||||
| Sales growth | 1.6 % | 36.2 % | 14.7 % | 2.5 % | 5.9 % | 5.2 % | 3.5 % |
| EBITDA growth | 21.3 % | 100.7 % | 31.6 % | 12.2 % | 9.0 % | 9.8 % | 9.2 % |
| EBIT growth | 26.0 % | 114.0 % | 21.7 % | 12.0 % | 9.4 % | 11.5 % | 12.7 % |
| EPS growth | 87.8 % | 55.5 % | 46.4 % | -2.1 % | 22.5 % | 14.2 % | 11.7 % |
| Efficiency | |||||||
| Total operating costs / sales | 97.6 % | 96.3 % | 95.6 % | 95.4 % | 95.0 % | 94.8 % | 94.5 % |
| Sales per employee | 196.0 | 257.7 | 273.1 | 263.6 | 267.1 | 556.6 | n/a |
| EBITDA per employee | 5.3 | 10.3 | 12.5 | 13.3 | 13.8 | 30.1 | n/a |
| Balance sheet analysis | |||||||
| Avg. working capital / sales | 3.4 % | 2.8 % | 2.6 % | 2.6 % | 1.9 % | 0.9 % | 1.0 % |
| Inventory turnover (sales/inventory) | 27.7 | 35.5 | 36.3 | 63.8 | 37.5 | 37.5 | 37.5 |
| Trade debtors in days of sales | 49.5 | 52.3 | 48.4 | 57.7 | 47.0 | 47.0 | 47.0 |
| A/P turnover [(A/P*365)/sales] | 50.1 | 49.6 | 48.9 | 50.3 | 51.0 | 51.0 | 51.0 |
| Cash conversion cycle (days) | -3.9 | -3.1 | -6.3 | -5.3 | -11.9 | -12.1 | -12.4 |
| Cash flow analysis | |||||||
| Free cash flow | 6.0 | 8.8 | 17.3 | 3.6 | 24.6 | 15.5 | 17.6 |
| Free cash flow/sales | 1.7 % | 1.9 % | 3.2 % | 0.6 % | 4.2 % | 2.5 % | 2.7 % |
| FCF / net profit | 118.4 % | 113.1 % | 150.3 % | 31.4 % | 161.9 % | 89.2 % | 90.6 % |
| FCF yield | 3.4 % | 5.0 % | 9.8 % | 1.8 % | 12.6 % | 7.9 % | 9.0 % |
| Capex / depn | 188.4 % | 206.6 % | 139.0 % | 169.0 % | 120.0 % | 119.0 % | 120.5 % |
| Capex / maintenance capex | 137.6 % | 133.1 % | 151.6 % | n/a | 124.5 % | 125.0 % | 84.3 % |
| Capex / sales | 1.3 % | 1.7 % | 1.7 % | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Security | |||||||
| Net debt | -3.5 | -0.9 | -18.5 | -29.2 | -49.8 | -60.8 | -73.8 |
| Net Debt/EBITDA | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Net debt / equity | -0.1 | 0.0 | -0.3 | -0.4 | -0.5 | -0.6 | -0.6 |
| Interest cover | 5.4 | 8.0 | 8.3 | 9.7 | 15.1 | 22.7 | 25.6 |
| Dividend payout ratio | 30.7 % | 19.7 % | 26.7 % | 34.7 % | 29.9 % | 26.2 % | 26.2 % |
| Asset utilisation | |||||||
| Capital employed turnover | 4.9 | 5.6 | 5.8 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.1 | 4.7 |
| Operating assets turnover | 20.1 | 18.9 | 21.5 | 16.4 | 23.7 | 22.6 | 21.8 |
| Plant turnover | 53.4 | 49.0 | 42.2 | 31.8 | 30.5 | 29.1 | 27.9 |
| Inventory turnover (sales/inventory) | 27.7 | 35.5 | 36.3 | 63.8 | 37.5 | 37.5 | 37.5 |
| Returns | |||||||
| ROCE | 10.5 % | 19.5 % | 20.6 % | 21.1 % | 21.6 % | 22.0 % | 22.0 % |
| ROE | 11.5 % | 15.4 % | 19.0 % | 14.2 % | 16.6 % | 16.6 % | 16.2 % |
| Other | |||||||
| Interest paid / avg. debt | 5.9 % | 7.2 % | 7.9 % | 10.3 % | 11.4 % | 10.2 % | 10.2 % |
| No. employees (average) | 1777 | 1842 | 1994 | 2117 | 2213 | 1118 | 0 |
| Number of shares | 10.4 | 10.3 | 10.4 | 10.6 | 11.4 | 11.4 | 11.4 |
| DPS | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| EPS reported | 0.49 | 0.76 | 1.11 | 1.09 | 1.33 | 1.52 | 1.70 |
| Valuation ratios | |||||||
| P/BV | 4.1 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.6 |
| EV/sales | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| EV/EBITDA | 18.4 | 9.2 | 6.3 | 5.9 | 4.8 | 4.0 | 3.3 |
| EV/EBITA | 24.6 | 11.6 | 7.1 | 6.9 | 5.6 | 4.7 | 3.9 |
| EV/EBIT | 24.6 | 11.6 | 8.6 | 8.0 | 6.4 | 5.3 | 4.3 |
| EV/FCF | 29.1 | 19.9 | 9.1 | 46.1 | 5.9 | 8.7 | 6.9 |
| Dividend yield | 0.9 % | 0.9 % | 1.7 % | 2.0 % | 2.3 % | 2.3 % | 2.6 % |
Disclosure in respect of section 34b of the German Securities Trading Act (Wertpapierhandelsgesetz – WpHG)
| Company | Disclosure |
|---|---|
| CANCOM SE | 2, 5 |
(1) Hauck & Aufhäuser or its affiliate(s) was Lead Manager or Co-Lead Manager over the previous 12 months of a public offering of this company.
(2) Hauck & Aufhäuser offers Equity Advisory Services.
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(7) Within the last five years Hauck & Aufhäuser was a member of the issuing syndicate of this company.
(8) The research report has been made available to the company prior to its publication / dissemination. Thereafter, only factual changes have been made to the report
Historical target price and rating changes for CANCOM SE in the last 12 months
| Buy | 58.95 % | 100.00 % |
|---|---|---|
| Sell | 14.74 % | 0.00 % |
| Hold | 26.32 % | 0.00 % |
Valuation basis/rating key
Buy: Sustainable upside potential of more than 10% within 12 months.
Sell: Sustainable downside potential of more than 10% within 12 months.
Hold: Upside/downside potential limited. No immediate catalyst visible.
Competent supervisory authority
Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht – BaFin – (Federal Financial Supervisory Authority), Graurheindorfer Straße 108, 53117 Bonn and Marie-Curie-Strasse 24-28, 60439 Frankfurt am Main, Germany
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