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CANCOM SE — Investor Presentation 2011
Jan 26, 2011
71_rns_2011-01-26_074fd97e-78f0-4428-86f8-28f90442ca8c.pdf
Investor Presentation
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CANCOM AG Germany - IT Services
| Buy |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price target: EUR 15.00 | Tim Wunderlich |
|||
| Price: | Next result: | |||
| Bloomberg: | !"# | Market cap: | \$ | %\$&'%()*) ''()' |
| Reuters: | !"#+ | Enterprise Value: | ,\$ | -'.////000 |
On the road with CEO Weinmann / Raising estimates and PT
-)'%(%&%)%1')')&23(''
(1) Market dynamics1set to remain healthy!4%(4&)&55%6/78 ((''%4 3\$ 55 % 6 7 9''8 : !; % '<5'%'(%4 significant tailwind from the strong economic growth % % (' \$2' #'\$ -= 3 ' Catch-up effects'<5%>(553)'4%(4&)'\$3\$ & '3%33%(%'%1'\$'%?-Pent-up demand should be no one-hit wonder @ (%' 55' 4%( \$2' 4&) ' above )' 4
'\$ 1'4'3
=3)% '
(2) Acquisitions )'\$%2' 5%3)''4
54&)%1'% : !; %2%42'
1'\$% & access synergies % 4%%(8\$%5()%42'()'highlights the value of size)' ( 55 )%4)' ?-+
\$4% 3 )' %1 - '\$ 3\$ %A' 14' 4%4 @'' 3%<' ( (1'4' 5('\$' (%% B%) : !; 4&%4 % %A'8 5()%4 ( % ' %\$51%4 )' (\$5 has received better procurement conditions from one of its major suppliers &)%() ' )'%C\$)%4)'2%(2@(2D&)%()'5'\$4%D%
(3) Visibility is as high as it can get%)%@%'3 : !;7( '3 @2' %)' ' 3 '@ -)' '<(' '\$ )'5 improve the pricing environment&)%())2')%%'(1'' 44%) % B%))''('(E%%%3-'(%@'(C\$?-+% 81%%@%% (%'\$4%%\$51'\$''< '%'4)''3)' 9'('8CANCOM's current guidance-C?\$'>C0\$?-+ is seen to be too conservative8%1%'&8)@'%'&%))''''33%3%4' ;()
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1'3-H&A estimates for 2011E are 5% above consensus regarding sales and 9% regarding EBITDANew PT is € 15 based on DCF BUY
| Y/E 31.12 (EUR m) | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010E | 2011E | 2012E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G' | / | / | /0 | ||||
| G'4&) | ,= | = | = | = | = | = | = |
| ?-+ | 0 | 0 | 00 | / | 0 | ||
| ?- | / | / | , | , | |||
| :'%(\$' | / | /, | , | 0 | |||
| :''@ | |||||||
| :'4'%4 | 0?= | ,= | = | 0= | = | = | 0= |
| :'+'@>?-+ | 0 | / | |||||
| HG3 %' | / | / | / | 00 | , | ||
| HG | / | , | , | 0 | |||
| +HG | , | / | |||||
| +%1%' %' | = | = | = | = | ,= | /= | = |
| #53%\$4% | /,= | 00= | = | ,= | ,= | ,= | ,= |
| ?-+\$4% | = | ,= | /= | = | = | 0= | /= |
| ?-\$4% | = | = | = | = | /= | 0= | = |
| ! | 0= | = | 0= | = | ,= | = | ,= |
| I>' | / | / | |||||
| I>?-+ | 0 | , | / | / | |||
| I>?- | , | ,0 | / | ,0 | /, | ||
| H | / | , | / | 0 | 0 | ||
| J' %' | = | = | /0= | /= | ,= | = | 0= |
G(' \$5 89(2F3)K' '5%('3
G(' \$5 89(2F3)K'
| High/low 52 weeks: | />// |
|---|---|
| Price/Book Ratio: | |
| Relative performance | -'(+L |
| \$) | ,= |
| \$) | = |
| \$) | ,= |
Changes in estimates
| Sales | EBIT | EPS | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| , | ||||
| 2010 ∆ |
/= | ,/= | = | |
| 2011 | ∆ | ,= | ,= | 0,= |
| /, | ,0 | |||
| 2012 | ∆ | ,= | 0= | = |
Key share data:
| :\$@'3)' %\$5( |
/ |
|---|---|
| )%'(5% %C\$ |
/ |
| 21'5')' %C |
|
| M%41\$' \$) |
8 |
Major shareholders:
| '' | 0= |
|---|---|
| \$"@' | = |
| G'3"@' | 0= |
| "B'%\$ | /= |
Company description:
: !;%)'4'%'5'' '\$ )' ?- )&' ''' %#'\$
Financials
| Profit and loss (EUR m) | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010E | 2011E | 2012E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales | 265.0 | 300.1 | 364.1 | 422.5 | 548.0 | 605.1 | 639.0 |
| ?(''>'(''%3%%)'4&2 % 5(' | |||||||
| Total sales | 265.1 | 301.0 | 364.5 | 423.4 | 549.0 | 606.1 | 640.0 |
| !)'5'%4%(\$' | , | , | , | ||||
| ;'%'<5'' | / | 0 | 0 | // | // | / | |
| H'''<5'' | / | , | 00 | , | |||
| !)'5'%4'<5'' | 0/ | ||||||
| -5'%4'<5'' | , | / | 0 | / | |||
| EBITDA | 5.8 | 8.0 | 8.8 | 10.4 | 19.0 | 23.1 | 25.8 |
| +'5'(%% | / | / | / | / | , | ||
| EBITA | 4.6 | 6.6 | 7.4 | 7.9 | 15.9 | 19.7 | 22.1 |
| \$%%34&% | |||||||
| \$%%3%4%@'' | 0 | ||||||
| ?\$5%\$'()4' | |||||||
| EBIT | 4.3 | 6.2 | 5.4 | 7.0 | 13.1 | 17.1 | 19.3 |
| ?''%(\$' | |||||||
| ?'''<5'' | |||||||
| !)'3%(%' | |||||||
| %(%' | 0 | ||||||
| Recurring pretax income from continuing operations | 3.4 | 5.3 | 4.0 | 5.7 | 11.3 | 15.1 | 17.4 |
| <% %(\$'> | |||||||
| Earnings before taxes | 3.4 | 5.3 | 4.0 | 5.7 | 11.3 | 15.1 | 17.4 |
| -<' | / | ||||||
| Net income from continuing operations | 2.8 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 5.1 | 8.0 | 10.6 | 12.2 |
| '3\$%(%'5'% '3< |
|||||||
| Net income | 2.6 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 5.1 | 8.0 | 10.6 | 12.2 |
| ;%% %'' | |||||||
| Net income (net of minority interest) | 2.4 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 5.1 | 8.0 | 10.5 | 12.1 |
| 1'4'\$@'3)' | / | / | / | / | / | / | |
| EPS reported | 0.24 | 0.45 | 0.26 | 0.49 | 0.77 | 1.01 | 1.17 |
| Profit and loss (common size) | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010E | 2011E | 2012E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % |
| ?(''>'(''%3%%)'4&2 % 5(' | = | = | = | = | = | = | = |
| Total sales | 100.0 % | 100.3 % | 100.1 % | 100.2 % | 100.2 % | 100.2 % | 100.2 % |
| !)'5'%4%(\$' | = | = | = | = | = | = | = |
| ;'%'<5'' | ,= | ,/= | ,= | ,?= | ,= | ,= | ,= |
| H'''<5'' | 0= | ,= | = | = | 0= | 0= | = |
| !)'5'%4'<5'' | = | ,= | ,= | = | ,= | = | = |
| -5'%4'<5'' | ,0= | ,?= | ,,= | ,0= | ,= | = | = |
| EBITDA | 2.2 % | 2.7 % | 2.4 % | 2.5 % | 3.5 % | 3.8 % | 4.0 % |
| +'5'(%% | = | = | /= | = | = | = | = |
| EBITA | 1.7 % | 2.2 % | 2.0 % | 1.9 % | 2.9 % | 3.3 % | 3.5 % |
| \$%%34&% | = | = | = | = | = | = | = |
| \$%%3%4%@'' | = | = | = | = | = | /= | /= |
| ?\$5%\$'()4' | = | = | = | = | = | = | = |
| EBIT | 1.6 % | 2.1 % | 1.5 % | 1.6 % | 2.4 % | 2.8 % | 3.0 % |
| ?''%(\$' | = | = | = | = | = | = | = |
| ?'''<5'' | /= | = | /= | = | /= | = | = |
| !)'3%(%' | = | = | = | = | = | = | = |
| %(%' | = | = | /= | = | = | = | = |
| Recurring pretax income from continuing operations | 1.3 % | 1.8 % | 1.1 % | 1.3 % | 2.1 % | 2.5 % | 2.7 % |
| <% %(\$'> | = | = | = | = | = | = | = |
| Earnings before taxes | 1.3 % | 1.8 % | 1.1 % | 1.3 % | 2.1 % | 2.5 % | 2.7 % |
| -<' | 0= | = | /= | 0= | = | = | = |
| Net income from continuing operations | 1.0 % | 1.8 % | 0.8 % | 1.2 % | 1.5 % | 1.8 % | 1.9 % |
| ?(\$'3\$%(%'5'% '3< |
= | = | = | = | = | = | = |
| Net income | 1.0 % | 1.7 % | 0.7 % | 1.2 % | 1.5 % | 1.8 % | 1.9 % |
| ;%% %'' | = | = | = | = | = | = | = |
| Net income (net of minority interest) | 0.9 % | 1.6 % | 0.7 % | 1.2 % | 1.5 % | 1.7 % | 1.9 % |
| Balance sheet (EUR m) | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010E | 2011E | 2012E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Intangible assets | 20.2 | 25.7 | 28.3 | 31.5 | 39.7 | 38.6 | 37.3 |
| H5' 85'E%5\$' | 0 | / | ,/ | 0 | 0 | ||
| %(%' | / | / | / | ||||
| FIXED ASSETS | 28.8 | 28.9 | 37.3 | 38.2 | 49.6 | 49.1 | 48.1 |
| ?1'%' | 0, | 0 | / | / | , | ||
| (('('%1@' | 0 | // | /, | 0 | , | ||
| !)'('' | |||||||
| N%E%' | , | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | / | |
| +'3''<' | |||||||
| +'3''()4'5'5%'<5'' | ,/ | / | / | / | / | ||
| :-GG-G | ,, | , | 0/ | , | |||
| TOTAL ASSETS | 86.5 | 100.4 | 120.7 | 134.9 | 159.8 | 171.4 | 180.4 |
| G99!N+G6?- | , | 0 | / | / | // | ||
| ;?:!?-?:-G- | , | ||||||
| N4 '\$'@ | , | ||||||
| H1%%35'%%\$%@%4% | |||||||
| !)'51%% | , | , | / | / | / | / | |
| Non-current liabilities | 20.2 | 24.1 | 23.6 | 26.0 | 26.0 | 26.0 | 26.0 |
| ) '\$%@%%%'@2 | 0 | , | , | , | , | ||
| ((5 @' | , | /, | 00 | ,, | |||
| 1('5 \$''('%1'' | 0 | ||||||
| !)'%@%%%' %(3\$'''(( |
/0 | , | , | , | , | ||
| +'3''<' | / | , | |||||
| +'3''%(\$' | / | , | , | , | , | ||
| Current liabilities | 32.9 | 40.0 | 58.1 | 65.0 | 79.5 | 86.0 | 89.8 |
| TOTAL LIABILITIES AND SHAREHOLDERS EQUITY | 86.5 | 100.4 | 120.7 | 134.9 | 159.8 | 171.4 | 180.4 |
| Balance sheet (common size) | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010E | 2011E | 2012E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Intangible assets | 23.3 % | 25.6 % | 23.5 % | 23.4 % | 24.9 % | 22.5 % | 20.7 % |
| H5' 85'E%5\$' | = | = | /= | /0= | /?= | /,= | /?= |
| %(%' | = | = | = | = | = | /= | /= |
| FIXED ASSETS | 33.3 % | 28.8 % | 30.9 % | 28.3 % | 31.0 % | 28.7 % | 26.7 % |
| ?1'%' | = | 0= | 0/= | = | ,= | = | = |
| (('('%1@' | //= | = | = | = | 0= | 0,= | 00= |
| !)'('' | = | = | = | 0= | = | = | 0= |
| N%E%' | 0/= | ,= | = | = | /= | = | 00= |
| +'3''<' | = | = | = | = | = | = | /= |
| +'3''()4'5'5%'<5'' | ,= | ,= | ,= | = | = | = | = |
| :-GG-G | ,= | ,= | = | ,,= | = | ,= | ,= |
| TOTAL ASSETS | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % |
| G99!N+G6?- | ,= | = | = | = | /= | /?= | ,= |
| ;?:!?-?:-G- | = | = | = | = | = | = | = |
| N4 '\$'@ | /,= | = | = | = | = | = | = |
| H1%%35'%%\$%@%4% | = | = | = | = | = | = | = |
| !)'51%% | 0/= | ,= | = | = | ,= | = | /= |
| Non-current liabilities | 23.3 % | 24.0 % | 19.6 % | 19.3 % | 16.3 % | 15.2 % | 14.4 % |
| ) '\$%@%%%'@2 | = | = | = | = | /= | /= | /= |
| ((5 @' | = | ,/= | = | = | = | /= | /= |
| 1('5 \$''('%1'' | ,= | 0= | = | 0= | ,= | ,= | = |
| !)'%@%%%' %(3\$'''(( |
= | = | /= | ,= | ,= | = | = |
| +'3''<' | = | ,= | = | = | = | = | = |
| +'3''%(\$' | /= | = | = | = | ,= | = | = |
| Current liabilities | 38.0 % | 39.9 % | 48.2 % | 48.2 % | 49.7 % | 50.2 % | 49.8 % |
| TOTAL LIABILITIES AND SHAREHOLDERS EQUITY | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % |
| Cash flow statement (EUR m) | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010E | 2011E | 2012E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| :'53%> | , | 0 | |||||
| +'5'(%%33%<'' %('' |
/ | / | / | / | , | ||
| \$%%34&% | |||||||
| \$%%3%4%@'' | 0 | ||||||
| !)' | / | ||||||
| )3&3\$5'%@'3'()4'%&>( | ,/ | , | 0 | 0, | |||
| ?(''>'(''%%1' | / | 0 | |||||
| ?(''>'(''%(('('%1@' | /0 | , | |||||
| ?(''>'(''%((5 @' | / | ||||||
| ?(''>'(''%)'&2%4(5%5%% | / | ||||||
| ?(''>'(''%&2%4(5% | 0 | / | 0 | ||||
| Cash flow from operating activities | -1.1 | 6.0 | 13.1 | 10.7 | 11.9 | 16.7 | 17.9 |
| HL | / | /, | |||||
| H \$'3(E%%% | 0 | /, | / | ||||
| %(%%1'\$' | |||||||
| ?(\$'3\$'%5 | |||||||
| Cash flow from investing activities | -5.0 | -5.4 | -1.2 | -2.6 | -17.3 | -5.5 | -5.5 |
| )3&@'3'3%(%4 | 0 | / | / | ||||
| ?(''>'(''%'@5%% | /0 | // | |||||
| H()'3&)' | |||||||
| 5%\$'' | |||||||
| +%1%'5% | 0 | / | |||||
| !)' | 0 | ||||||
| 33'(3'<()4''()4'() | |||||||
| Cash flow from financing activities | 1.6 | 4.0 | -4.5 | -1.1 | -1.6 | -2.8 | -4.2 |
| ?(''>'(''%%E%' | / | / | , | , | , | 0/ | > |
| Liquid assets at end of period | 7.3 | 11.8 | 18.9 | 25.8 | 18.9 | 27.3 | 35.5 |
G(' \$5 89(2F3)K'
| Regional split (EUR m) | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010E | 2011E | 2012E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +\$'%( | 0 | /,00 | / | ||||
| ()4' | > | > | > | 0= | /= | ,= | = |
| '35' | / | , | |||||
| ()4' | > | > | > | > | = | /= | 0,= |
| :- | |||||||
| ()4' | > | > | > | > | > | > | > |
| %H(%3%( | |||||||
| ()4' | > | > | > | > | > | > | > |
| '3& | |||||||
| ()4' | > | > | > | > | > | > | > |
| TTL | 0.0 | 0.0 | 322.2 | 422.5 | 548.0 | 605.1 | 639.0 |
| ()4' | > | > | > | = | ,= | /= | = |
| Key ratios (EUR m) | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010E | 2011E | 2012E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P&L growth analysis | |||||||
| G'4&) | ,= | = | = | = | ,= | /= | = |
| ?-+4&) | 0= | 0,= | = | 0/= | 0/= | = | = |
| ?-4&) | 0/= | //,= | = | 0= | 00= | = | 0= |
| HG4&) | = | 0= | /= | 0,= | ,,= | = | /= |
| Efficiency | |||||||
| -5'%4(>' | ,0= | ,?= | ,,= | ,0= | ,= | = | = |
| G'5''\$5 '' | ,, | 0 | , | ||||
| ?-+5''\$5 '' | / | 0 | , | ||||
| Balance sheet analysis | |||||||
| 14&2%4(5%>' | /= | = | /= | 0= | = | = | = |
| ?1' 1' '>%1' |
/ | , | , | ||||
| -''@% 3' | / | /,0 | // | /0 | / | / | / |
| >H1'O >HP >'Q |
/ | / | / | / | |||
| )(1'%( (' |
, | / | 0 | ||||
| Cash flow analysis | |||||||
| ''()3& | / | 0 | / | / | |||
| ''()3&>' | = | = | ,= | /= | = | 0= | = |
| >'53% | = | 0= | ,/= | 0/= | 0= | = | = |
| %' | /= | ,= | = | 0= | = | = | = |
| 5'<>'5 | ,,= | = | /= | /= | = | ,= | 0/?= |
| 5'<>\$%'('(5'< | ,/0= | 0/= | = | 0?= | ,?= | 0,= | 0= |
| 5'<>' | /= | /= | = | = | /= | = | > |
| Security | |||||||
| :''@ | |||||||
| :'+'@>?-+ | 0 | / | |||||
| :''@>'E% | |||||||
| ?''(1' | / | /, | , | 00 | |||
| +%1%'5 % | = | = | = | ,= | /?= | = | //= |
| Asset utilisation | |||||||
| 5%'\$5 '1' | / | /0 | , | 0 | , | , | |
| !5'%4'1' | , | // | , | ||||
| H1' | / | ,/ | /, | ,0 | ,/ | ,?, | |
| ?1' 1' '>%1' |
/ | , | , | ||||
| Returns | |||||||
| ! | 0= | = | 0= | = | ,= | = | ,= |
| ! | ,?= | = | = | = | /,= | ,0= | 00= |
| Other | |||||||
| ?''5%>14'@ | 0?= | = | ,0= | = | 0,= | 0,= | 0,= |
| :'\$5 '' 1'4' |
0, | 00 | ,,, | , | |||
| :\$@'3)' | / | / | / | / | / | / | |
| +HG | / | ||||||
| HG'5' | / | / | / | ,, | , | ||
| Valuation ratios | |||||||
| H>I | , | / | , | ||||
| I>' | / | / | |||||
| I>?-+ | 0 | , | / | / | |||
| I>?- | / | / | / | / | |||
| I>?- | , | ,0 | / | ,0 | /, | ||
| I> | // | , | 0 | , | |||
| +%1%' %' | = | = | = | = | ,= | /= | = |
Disclosure in respect of section 34b of the German Securities Trading Act (Wertpapierhandelsgesetz – WpHG)
| Company | Disclosure |
|---|---|
| : !;# |
-
9(2F3)K'%33%%'- &N';4'
N';4'1')'5'1%\$)35@%(33'%43)% (\$5 -
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Historical target price and rating changes for CANCOM AG in the last 12 months
Valuation basis/rating key
Buy: G%@'5%'5'%3\$')=&%)%\$)
Sell: G%@'&%'5'%3\$')=&%)%\$)
Hold:5%'>&%'5'%%\$%':%\$\$'%'( 1%%@'
Competent supervisory authority
'3R%A%''%43%()D%D-''%(%G5'1% )% 8#)'%3'GS'08, N4%''8?/23\$;%8#'\$
Important Disclosures
-)% ''() '5 ) @'' 5'5' @ 9(2 F 3)K' ?%% ''() #\$@98 9\$@48 ' 3 % 33%%' -"Hauck & Aufhäuser"
9(2F3)K' )\$' '1' '33 ('3 ''() %3\$% (%' %)%3%(% % -)' %3\$% &)%())' 3%(% % % @' ) @'' @%' 3\$ (' &)%() &' @'%'1' @' '%@' () 83 '<\$5'8 ''8\$@'4 )' ''15'(%%'5'&')'(\$5 &)%()%)'@J'(3)%3%(% %
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-)'(\$')''(\$\$'%'%\$%(%')''%'%2'
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