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CANCOM SE — Earnings Release 2011
Mar 21, 2012
71_rns_2012-03-21_25cde018-44b1-41a1-aafc-1617688dca86.pdf
Earnings Release
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CANCOM AG Germany - IT Services
| Buy (old: Buy) | 21-March-12 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price target: EUR 16.00 | (old: EUR 16.00) | Tim Wunderlich Analyst |
||
| Price: | EUR 9.50 | Next result: | Q4 2011: 27.03.11 | |
| Bloomberg: | COK GR | Market cap: | EUR 97.5 m | [email protected] |
| Reuters: | COKG.DE | Enterprise Value: | EUR 83.8 m | Tel.: +49 40 4143885 81 |
Stock yields 3% following dividend increase; Adj. Est.
CANCOM yesterday evening confirmed the preliminary sales and EBITDA figures reported on February 6: FY 2011 sales grew by 15% y-o-y to € 544m while EBITDA rose disproportionately by 32% y-o-y to € 25m. The company newly announced EBIT of € 18.5m (eH&A: € 19.0m) and EPS of € 1.14 (eH&A: € 1.10).
More importantly, the dividend was raised to € 0.30 per share from € 0.15, which was above expectations of € 0.22 per share and yields 3.2% on the current share price. The related pay-out of € 3.1m should be no challenge for CANCOM:
- Net cash stood at € 14m at the end of 2011.
- The company generated Free Cash Flow of € 17m or € 1.60 per share in 2011, in our view. To compare: In 2010, FCF reached € 9m.
Earnings of € 1.14 per share imply a PER of only 8.3 for 2011. This is attractive on an absolute basis AND marks a heavy discount to rivals Bechtle (11x earnings 2011) and Computacenter (c. 11x earnings 2011) which is seen to be unjustified: While Bechtle and Computacenter are bigger (4% market share in Germany each) than CANCOM (2% market share), the more attractive growth opportunities lie with CANCOM, in our view, especially given its strong footprint in Cloud Computing and the appetite for acquisitions which should drive synergies in logistics, admin and procurement. Interestingly, CANCOM already operates more profitably than Computacenter, despite its size disadvantage, which should be due to the focus on the SME customer group and on higher-margin services such as Cloud Computing.
Further, the stock has underperformed both peers in the past three months to the tune of 20% (see next page) AND the TecDax by c. 8% even though results were inline and prospects for 2012 remain sound. Hence, CANCOM should be an attractive pick for investors looking for stocks with catch-up potential.
Estimates are adjusted to incorporate: (1) The more detailed FY '11 results and (2) Higher dividend expectations (2012E: € 0.30 vs. € 0.25 / 2013E: € 0.40 vs. € 0.27). The annual report will be released on March 27; CEO Weinmann will hold a CC one day later at 10 a.m. CET. BUY; PT € 16 based on DCF. – continued –
| Y/E 31.12 (EUR m) | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011P | 2012E | 2013E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | 300.1 | 342.8 | 348.3 | 474.6 | 544.4 | 564.0 | 589.4 |
| Sales growth | 13 % | 14 % | 2 % | 36 % | 15 % | 4 % | 5 % |
| EBITDA | 8.0 | 7.8 | 9.5 | 19.0 | 25.0 | 27.7 | 29.0 |
| EBIT | 6.2 | 5.6 | 7.1 | 15.2 | 18.5 | 21.2 | 22.4 |
| Net income | 4.7 | 2.7 | 5.1 | 7.8 | 11.8 | 13.0 | 14.0 |
| Net debt | 6.2 | 3.9 | -3.5 | -0.9 | -13.8 | -24.1 | -35.3 |
| Net gearing | 17.2 % | 9.9 % | -8.0 % | -1.8 % | -22.5 % | -33.8 % | -43.0 % |
| Net Debt/EBITDA | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| EPS fully diluted | 0.45 | 0.26 | 0.49 | 0.76 | 1.14 | 1.25 | 1.35 |
| CPS | 0.40 | 1.05 | 0.80 | 1.25 | 1.20 | 1.36 | 1.41 |
| DPS | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 0.15 | 0.30 | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| Dividend yield | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 1.6 % | 1.6 % | 3.2 % | 3.2 % | 4.2 % |
| Gross profit margin | 28.8 % | 29.9 % | 31.0 % | 29.3 % | 29.5 % | 29.9 % | 30.1 % |
| EBITDA margin | 2.7 % | 2.3 % | 2.7 % | 4.0 % | 4.6 % | 4.9 % | 4.9 % |
| EBIT margin | 2.1 % | 1.6 % | 2.0 % | 3.2 % | 3.4 % | 3.8 % | 3.8 % |
| ROCE | 10.6 % | 8.9 % | 10.5 % | 19.5 % | 20.5 % | 21.1 % | 20.2 % |
| EV/sales | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.1 | 13.2 | 10.0 | 5.1 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 2.1 |
| EV/EBIT | 17.0 | 18.3 | 13.4 | 6.4 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 2.8 |
| PER | 20.4 | 31.1 | 19.7 | 10.3 | 8.3 | 7.6 | 7.0 |
| Adjusted FCF yield | 5.4 % | 4.3 % | 6.4 % | 11.9 % | 19.7 % | 24.7 % | 30.7 % |
Source: Company data, Hauck & Aufhäuser Close price as of: 20.03.2012
Source: Company data, Hauck & Aufhäuser
| High/low 52 weeks: | 10.50 / 6.74 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price/Book Ratio: | 1.6 | |||||
| Relative performance (TecDAX): | ||||||
| 3 months | -7.6 % | |||||
| 6 months | 8.9 % | |||||
| 12 months | 17.5 % |
Changes in estimates
| Sales | EBIT | EPS | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| old: | 544.1 | 19.0 | 1.10 | |
| 2011 | ∆ | 0.1% | -2.6% | 3.8% |
| old: | 564.0 | 21.2 | 1.25 | |
| 2012 | ∆ | - | - | - |
| old: | 589.4 | 22.4 | 1.35 | |
| 2013 | ∆ | - | - | - |
Key share data:
| Number of shares: (in m pcs) | 10.4 |
|---|---|
| Authorised capital: (in € m) | 4.0 |
| Book value per share: (in €) | 5.9 |
| Ø trading volume: (12 months) | 60,000 |
Major shareholders:
| Free Float | 84.8 % |
|---|---|
| JP Morgan | 5.3 % |
| AGI | 3.0 % |
| Stefan Kober | 2.5 % |
| Raymond Kober | 2.5 % |
| Klaus Weinmann | 1.9 % |
Company description:
CANCOM is Germany's 3rd largest independent system house operating a scalable eCommerce business.
Share price performance comparison: Last three months
Financials
| Profit and loss (EUR m) | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011E | 2012E | 2013E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales | 300.1 | 342.8 | 348.3 | 474.6 | 544.4 | 564.0 | 589.4 |
| Sales growth | 13.2 % | 14.2 % | 1.6 % | 36.2 % | 14.7 % | 3.6 % | 4.5 % |
| Increase/decrease in finished goods and work-in-process | 0.9 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Total sales | 301.0 | 343.1 | 349.3 | 475.8 | 545.7 | 565.0 | 590.4 |
| Other operating income | 1.5 | 0.3 | 2.3 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.3 |
| Material expenses | 214.2 | 240.7 | 241.1 | 336.3 | 384.6 | 395.9 | 412.8 |
| Personnel expenses | 59.0 | 71.0 | 79.2 | 97.0 | 111.1 | 115.1 | 120.4 |
| Other operating expenses | 21.2 | 24.0 | 21.8 | 26.8 | 27.2 | 28.5 | 30.5 |
| Total operating expenses | 293.0 | 335.3 | 339.8 | 456.8 | 520.7 | 537.3 | 561.4 |
| EBITDA | 8.0 | 7.8 | 9.5 | 19.0 | 25.0 | 27.7 | 29.0 |
| Depreciation | 1.4 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 3.6 |
| EBITA | 6.6 | 5.6 | 7.1 | 15.2 | 21.2 | 24.0 | 25.4 |
| Amortisation of goodwill | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Amortisation of intangible assets | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 3.0 |
| Impairment charges | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| EBIT | 6.2 | 5.6 | 7.1 | 15.2 | 18.5 | 21.2 | 22.4 |
| Interest income | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 |
| Interest expenses | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 2.7 |
| Other financial result | 0.0 | -0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.1 | -0.1 | 0.0 |
| Financial result | -0.9 | -1.2 | -1.1 | -1.8 | -2.1 | -2.5 | -2.4 |
| Recurring pretax income from continuing operations | 5.3 | 4.4 | 5.9 | 13.3 | 16.4 | 18.7 | 20.0 |
| Extraordinary income/loss | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Earnings before taxes | 5.3 | 4.4 | 5.9 | 13.3 | 16.4 | 18.7 | 20.0 |
| Taxes | -0.1 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 3.7 | 4.5 | 5.6 | 6.0 |
| Net income from continuing operations | 5.4 | 3.2 | 5.0 | 9.6 | 11.9 | 13.1 | 14.0 |
| Result from discontinued operations (net of tax) | 0.2 | 0.5 | -0.1 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Net income | 5.2 | 2.7 | 5.1 | 7.9 | 11.9 | 13.1 | 14.0 |
| Minority interest | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Net income (net of minority interest) | 4.7 | 2.7 | 5.1 | 7.8 | 11.8 | 13.0 | 14.0 |
| Average number of shares | 10.4 | 10.4 | 10.4 | 10.3 | 10.4 | 10.4 | 10.4 |
| EPS reported | 0.45 | 0.26 | 0.49 | 0.76 | 1.14 | 1.25 | 1.35 |
| Profit and loss (common size) | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011E | 2012E | 2013E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % |
| Increase/decrease in finished goods and work-in-process | 0.3 % | 0.1 % | 0.3 % | 0.3 % | 0.2 % | 0.2 % | 0.2 % |
| Total sales | 100.3 % | 100.1 % | 100.3 % | 100.3 % | 100.2 % | 100.2 % | 100.2 % |
| Other operating income | 0.5 % | 0.1 % | 0.6 % | 0.7 % | 0.4 % | 0.4 % | 0.4 % |
| Material expenses | 71.4 % | 70.2 % | 69.2 % | 70.9 % | 70.6 % | 70.2 % | 70.0 % |
| Personnel expenses | 19.7 % | 20.7 % | 22.7 % | 20.4 % | 20.4 % | 20.4 % | 20.4 % |
| Other operating expenses | 7.1 % | 7.0 % | 6.3 % | 5.7 % | 5.0 % | 5.1 % | 5.2 % |
| Total operating expenses | 97.6 % | 97.8 % | 97.6 % | 96.3 % | 95.6 % | 95.3 % | 95.2 % |
| EBITDA | 2.7 % | 2.3 % | 2.7 % | 4.0 % | 4.6 % | 4.9 % | 4.9 % |
| Depreciation | 0.5 % | 0.6 % | 0.7 % | 0.8 % | 0.7 % | 0.7 % | 0.6 % |
| EBITA | 2.2 % | 1.6 % | 2.0 % | 3.2 % | 3.9 % | 4.3 % | 4.3 % |
| Amortisation of goodwill | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % |
| Amortisation of intangible assets | 0.2 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.5 % | 0.5 % | 0.5 % |
| Impairment charges | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % |
| EBIT | 2.1 % | 1.6 % | 2.0 % | 3.2 % | 3.4 % | 3.8 % | 3.8 % |
| Interest income | 0.1 % | 0.1 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.1 % |
| Interest expenses | 0.3 % | 0.4 % | 0.4 % | 0.4 % | 0.4 % | 0.5 % | 0.5 % |
| Other financial result | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % |
| Financial result | -0.3 % | -0.4 % | -0.3 % | -0.4 % | -0.4 % | -0.4 % | -0.4 % |
| Recurring pretax income from continuing operations | 1.8 % | 1.3 % | 1.7 % | 2.8 % | 3.0 % | 3.3 % | 3.4 % |
| Extraordinary income/loss | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % |
| Earnings before taxes | 1.8 % | 1.3 % | 1.7 % | 2.8 % | 3.0 % | 3.3 % | 3.4 % |
| Tax rate | -1.1 % | 28.3 % | 15.6 % | 28.1 % | 27.5 % | 30.0 % | 30.0 % |
| Net income from continuing operations | 1.8 % | 0.9 % | 1.4 % | 2.0 % | 2.2 % | 2.3 % | 2.4 % |
| Income from discontinued operations (net of tax) | 0.1 % | 0.1 % | 0.0 % | 0.4 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % |
| Net income | 1.7 % | 0.8 % | 1.5 % | 1.7 % | 2.2 % | 2.3 % | 2.4 % |
| Minority interest | 0.2 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % |
| Net income (net of minority interest) | 1.6 % | 0.8 % | 1.5 % | 1.6 % | 2.2 % | 2.3 % | 2.4 % |
CANCOM AG
| Balance sheet (EUR m) | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011E | 2012E | 2013E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Intangible assets | 25.7 | 28.3 | 31.5 | 42.5 | 38.8 | 38.0 | 37.0 |
| Property, plant and equipment | 3.0 | 5.4 | 6.5 | 9.7 | 9.4 | 9.2 | 9.1 |
| Financial assets | 0.2 | 3.5 | 0.2 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.2 |
| FIXED ASSETS | 28.9 | 37.3 | 38.2 | 55.4 | 51.4 | 50.4 | 49.3 |
| Inventories | 8.6 | 10.1 | 12.6 | 13.4 | 14.7 | 15.2 | 15.9 |
| Accounts receivable | 39.3 | 44.2 | 47.2 | 68.0 | 71.6 | 74.2 | 77.5 |
| Other current assets | 1.5 | 6.3 | 5.1 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 6.4 |
| Liquid assets | 11.8 | 18.3 | 25.8 | 31.5 | 44.3 | 54.6 | 65.8 |
| Deferred taxes | 3.1 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| Deferred charges and prepaid expenses | 7.4 | 2.1 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| CURRENT ASSETS | 71.5 | 83.4 | 96.7 | 122.0 | 139.8 | 153.2 | 168.4 |
| TOTAL ASSETS | 100.4 | 120.7 | 134.9 | 177.4 | 191.2 | 203.6 | 217.8 |
| SHAREHOLDERS EQUITY | 36.3 | 38.9 | 43.9 | 50.9 | 61.2 | 71.1 | 82.1 |
| MINORITY INTEREST | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Long-term debt | 16.1 | 20.3 | 21.6 | 29.0 | 29.0 | 29.0 | 29.0 |
| Provisions for pensions and similar obligations | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Other provisions | 7.9 | 3.2 | 4.3 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.2 |
| Non-current liabilities | 24.1 | 23.6 | 26.0 | 32.2 | 32.2 | 32.2 | 32.2 |
| short-term liabilities to banks | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| Accounts payable | 27.5 | 39.3 | 47.9 | 64.4 | 67.9 | 70.3 | 73.5 |
| Advance payments received on orders | 0.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| Other liabilities (incl. from lease and rental contracts) | 6.6 | 12.6 | 10.7 | 16.3 | 16.3 | 16.3 | 16.3 |
| Deferred taxes | 0.7 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 |
| Deferred income | 2.5 | 1.2 | 2.7 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 |
| Current liabilities | 40.0 | 58.1 | 65.0 | 94.2 | 97.6 | 100.1 | 103.2 |
| TOTAL LIABILITIES AND SHAREHOLDERS EQUITY | 100.4 | 120.7 | 134.9 | 177.4 | 191.2 | 203.6 | 217.8 |
| Balance sheet (common size) | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011E | 2012E | 2013E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Intangible assets | 25.6 % | 23.5 % | 23.4 % | 24.0 % | 20.3 % | 18.7 % | 17.0 % |
| Property, plant and equipment | 3.0 % | 4.5 % | 4.8 % | 5.5 % | 4.9 % | 4.5 % | 4.2 % |
| Financial assets | 0.2 % | 2.9 % | 0.1 % | 1.8 % | 1.7 % | 1.6 % | 1.5 % |
| FIXED ASSETS | 28.8 % | 30.9 % | 28.3 % | 31.2 % | 26.9 % | 24.8 % | 22.7 % |
| Inventories | 8.5 % | 8.4 % | 9.3 % | 7.5 % | 7.7 % | 7.5 % | 7.3 % |
| Accounts receivable | 39.1 % | 36.6 % | 35.0 % | 38.3 % | 37.4 % | 36.4 % | 35.6 % |
| Other current assets | 1.5 % | 5.2 % | 3.8 % | 3.6 % | 3.4 % | 3.2 % | 3.0 % |
| Liquid assets | 11.7 % | 15.1 % | 19.2 % | 17.7 % | 23.2 % | 26.8 % | 30.2 % |
| Deferred taxes | 3.1 % | 2.1 % | 1.9 % | 0.4 % | 0.4 % | 0.3 % | 0.3 % |
| Deferred charges and prepaid expenses | 7.3 % | 1.7 % | 2.5 % | 1.1 % | 1.1 % | 1.0 % | 0.9 % |
| CURRENT ASSETS | 71.2 % | 69.1 % | 71.7 % | 68.8 % | 73.1 % | 75.2 % | 77.3 % |
| TOTAL ASSETS | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % |
| SHAREHOLDERS EQUITY | 36.1 % | 32.3 % | 32.5 % | 28.7 % | 32.0 % | 34.9 % | 37.7 % |
| MINORITY INTEREST | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.1 % | 0.1 % | 0.1 % |
| Long-term debt | 16.0 % | 16.9 % | 16.0 % | 16.3 % | 15.1 % | 14.2 % | 13.3 % |
| Provisions for pensions and similar obligations | 0.2 % | 0.1 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % |
| Other provisions | 7.9 % | 2.6 % | 3.2 % | 1.8 % | 1.7 % | 1.6 % | 1.5 % |
| Non-current liabilities | 24.0 % | 19.6 % | 19.3 % | 18.2 % | 16.9 % | 15.8 % | 14.8 % |
| short-term liabilities to banks | 1.9 % | 1.5 % | 0.5 % | 0.9 % | 0.8 % | 0.8 % | 0.7 % |
| Accounts payable | 27.4 % | 32.5 % | 35.5 % | 36.3 % | 35.5 % | 34.5 % | 33.7 % |
| Advance payments received on orders | 0.8 % | 1.6 % | 0.8 % | 0.9 % | 0.8 % | 0.7 % | 0.7 % |
| Other liabilities (incl. from lease and rental contracts) | 6.6 % | 10.4 % | 7.9 % | 9.2 % | 8.5 % | 8.0 % | 7.5 % |
| Deferred taxes | 0.7 % | 1.1 % | 1.5 % | 2.4 % | 2.3 % | 2.1 % | 2.0 % |
| Deferred income | 2.5 % | 1.0 % | 2.0 % | 3.4 % | 3.2 % | 3.0 % | 2.8 % |
| Current liabilities | 39.9 % | 48.2 % | 48.2 % | 53.1 % | 51.1 % | 49.1 % | 47.4 % |
| TOTAL LIABILITIES AND SHAREHOLDERS EQUITY | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % |
CANCOM AG
| Cash flow statement (EUR m) | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011E | 2012E | 2013E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net profit/loss | 5.2 | 2.7 | 5.1 | 7.9 | 11.9 | 13.1 | 14.0 |
| Depreciation of fixed assets (incl. leases) | 1.4 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 3.6 |
| Amortisation of goodwill | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Amortisation of intangible assets | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 3.0 |
| Others | 0.0 | -10.8 | -0.6 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Cash flow from operations before changes in w/c | 7.0 | -6.0 | 6.9 | 14.7 | 18.4 | 19.6 | 20.6 |
| Increase/decrease in inventory | 0.2 | 0.9 | -0.9 | 0.3 | -1.4 | -0.5 | -0.7 |
| Increase/decrease in accounts receivable | -3.5 | 4.4 | 0.8 | -15.2 | -3.6 | -2.6 | -3.3 |
| Increase/decrease in accounts payable | 1.3 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 17.1 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 3.2 |
| Increase/decrease in other working capital positions | 1.0 | 9.5 | 1.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Increase/decrease in working capital | -1.1 | 19.0 | 3.8 | 2.2 | -1.5 | -0.7 | -0.9 |
| Cash flow from operating activities | 6.0 | 13.1 | 10.7 | 16.9 | 16.9 | 18.9 | 19.8 |
| CAPEX | 4.2 | 3.0 | 4.7 | 8.1 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 |
| Payments for acquisitions | 4.7 | 6.6 | 0.4 | 10.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Financial investments | -0.1 | -0.3 | -0.2 | -0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Income from asset disposals | 3.5 | 8.1 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Cash flow from investing activities | -5.4 | -1.2 | -2.6 | -17.3 | -2.5 | -5.5 | -5.5 |
| Cash flow before financing | 0.6 | 11.9 | 8.0 | -0.4 | 14.4 | 3.1 | 3.1 |
| Increase/decrease in debt position | 4.8 | -3.5 | 0.1 | 8.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Purchase of own shares | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | -0.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Capital measures | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Dividends paid | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 3.1 | 3.1 |
| Others | -0.8 | -1.0 | -1.0 | -1.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Effects of exchange rate changes on cash | -0.2 | -0.3 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Cash flow from financing activities | 4.0 | -4.5 | -1.1 | 5.9 | -1.5 | -3.1 | -3.1 |
| Increase/decrease in liquid assets | 4.5 | 7.1 | 7.0 | 5.6 | 12.8 | n/a | n/a |
| Liquid assets at end of period | 11.8 | 18.9 | 25.8 | 31.5 | 44.3 | 54.6 | 65.8 |
Source: Company data, Hauck & Aufhäuser
| Regional split (EUR m) | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011E | 2012E | 2013E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Domestic | 0.0 | 322.2 | 386.1 | 491.6 | 484.5 | 502.0 | 524.6 |
| yoy change | n/a | n/a | 19.8 % | 27.3 % | -1.4 % | 3.6 % | 4.5 % |
| Rest of Europe | 0.0 | 0.0 | 36.4 | 57.7 | 59.9 | 62.0 | 64.8 |
| yoy change | n/a | n/a | n/a | 58.5 % | 3.8 % | 3.6 % | 4.5 % |
| NAFTA | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| yoy change | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Asia Pacific | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| yoy change | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Rest of world | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| yoy change | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| TTL | 0.0 | 322.2 | 422.5 | 474.6 | 544.4 | 564.0 | 589.4 |
| yoy change | n/a | n/a | 31.1 % | 12.3 % | 14.7 % | 3.6 % | 4.5 % |
CANCOM AG
| Key ratios (EUR m) | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011E | 2012E | 2013E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P&L growth analysis | |||||||
| Sales growth | 13.2 % | 14.2 % | 1.6 % | 36.2 % | 14.7 % | 3.6 % | 4.5 % |
| EBITDA growth | 38.7 % | -2.7 % | 21.3 % | 100.7 % | 31.6 % | 10.8 % | 4.7 % |
| EBIT growth | 44.7 % | -8.8 % | 26.0 % | 114.0 % | 22.1 % | 14.5 % | 5.7 % |
| EPS growth | 85.5 % | -42.4 % | 87.8 % | 55.5 % | 50.4 % | 9.8 % | 7.9 % |
| Efficiency | |||||||
| Total operating costs / sales | 97.6 % | 97.8 % | 97.6 % | 96.3 % | 95.6 % | 95.3 % | 95.2 % |
| Sales per employee | 233.3 | 215.9 | 196.0 | 243.4 | 263.0 | 262.3 | 266.4 |
| EBITDA per employee | 6.2 | 4.9 | 5.3 | 9.7 | 12.1 | 12.9 | 13.1 |
| Balance sheet analysis | |||||||
| Avg. working capital / sales | 6.2 % | 4.8 % | 3.4 % | 2.8 % | 3.0 % | 3.1 % | 3.1 % |
| Inventory turnover (sales/inventory) | 35.1 | 34.0 | 27.7 | 35.5 | 37.0 | 37.0 | 37.0 |
| Trade debtors in days of sales | 47.8 | 47.0 | 49.5 | 52.3 | 48.0 | 48.0 | 48.0 |
| A/P turnover [(A/P*365)/sales] | 33.5 | 41.8 | 50.1 | 49.6 | 45.5 | 45.5 | 45.5 |
| Cash conversion cycle (days) | 15.5 | 2.8 | -3.9 | -3.1 | -2.4 | -2.8 | -2.9 |
| Cash flow analysis | |||||||
| Free cash flow | 1.8 | 10.1 | 6.0 | 8.8 | 11.4 | 13.4 | 14.3 |
| Free cash flow/sales | 0.6 % | 2.9 % | 1.7 % | 1.9 % | 2.1 % | 2.4 % | 2.4 % |
| FCF / net profit | 38.0 % | 374.5 % | 118.4 % | 113.1 % | 96.1 % | 103.2 % | 101.7 % |
| FCF yield | 1.8 % | 10.2 % | 6.1 % | 9.1 % | 11.7 % | 13.8 % | 14.6 % |
| Capex / depn | 221.5 % | 122.1 % | 188.4 % | 206.6 % | 84.6 % | 84.6 % | 83.3 % |
| Capex / maintenance capex | 84.3 % | 114.9 % | 138.4 % | n/a | 76.1 % | 70.0 % | 66.0 % |
| Capex / sales | 1.4 % | 0.8 % | 1.3 % | 1.7 % | 1.0 % | n/a | n/a |
| Security | |||||||
| Net debt | 6.2 | 3.9 | -3.5 | -0.9 | -13.8 | -24.1 | -35.3 |
| Net Debt/EBITDA | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Net debt / equity | 0.2 | 0.1 | -0.1 | 0.0 | -0.2 | -0.3 | -0.4 |
| Interest cover | 6.0 | 4.0 | 5.4 | 8.0 | 8.1 | 8.0 | 8.4 |
| Dividend payout ratio | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 30.7 % | 19.7 % | 26.0 % | 23.7 % | 29.3 % |
| Asset utilisation | |||||||
| Capital employed turnover | 4.8 | 5.3 | 4.9 | 5.6 | 5.7 | 5.4 | 5.1 |
| Operating assets turnover | 13.3 | 18.6 | 20.1 | 18.9 | 20.7 | 21.1 | 21.4 |
| Plant turnover | 99.4 | 63.5 | 53.4 | 49.0 | 58.1 | 61.5 | 64.9 |
| Inventory turnover (sales/inventory) | 35.1 | 34.0 | 27.7 | 35.5 | 37.0 | 37.0 | 37.0 |
| Returns | |||||||
| ROCE | 10.6 % | 8.9 % | 10.5 % | 19.5 % | 20.5 % | 21.1 % | 20.2 % |
| ROE | 12.9 % | 6.9 % | 11.5 % | 15.4 % | 19.3 % | 18.3 % | 17.1 % |
| Other | |||||||
| Interest paid / avg. debt | 6.6 % | 7.0 % | 5.9 % | 7.2 % | 7.5 % | 8.7 % | 8.7 % |
| No. employees (average) | 1287 | 1588 | 1777 | 1950 | 2070 | 2150 | 2213 |
| Number of shares | 10.4 | 10.4 | 10.4 | 10.3 | 10.4 | 10.4 | 10.4 |
| DPS | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.4 |
| EPS reported | 0.45 | 0.26 | 0.49 | 0.76 | 1.14 | 1.25 | 1.35 |
| Valuation ratios | |||||||
| P/BV | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| EV/sales | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.1 | 13.2 | 10.0 | 5.1 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 2.1 |
| EV/EBITA | 15.8 | 18.3 | 13.4 | 6.4 | 4.0 | 3.1 | 2.5 |
| EV/EBIT | 17.0 | 18.3 | 13.4 | 6.4 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 2.8 |
| EV/FCF | 59.1 | 10.2 | 15.8 | 10.9 | 7.4 | 5.5 | 4.4 |
| Dividend yield | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 1.6 % | 1.6 % | 3.2 % | 3.2 % | 4.2 % |
Disclosure in respect of section 34b of the German Securities Trading Act (Wertpapierhandelsgesetz – WpHG)
| Company | Disclosure |
|---|---|
| CANCOM AG | 2, 5 |
(1) Hauck & Aufhäuser or its affiliate(s) was Lead Manager or Co-Lead Manager over the previous 12 months of a public offering of this company.
(2) Hauck & Aufhäuser acts as Designated Sponsor for this company or offers Equity Advisory Services.
- (3) Over the previous 12 months, Hauck & Aufhäuser and/or its affiliate(s) has effected an agreement with this company for investment banking services or received compensation or a promise to pay from this company for investment banking services.
- (4) Hauck & Aufhäuser and/or its affiliate(s) hold 5 % or more of the share capital of this company.
- (5) Hauck & Aufhäuser holds a trading position in shares of this company.
- (6) Hauck & Aufhäuser and/or its affiliate(s) holds a net short position of 1 % or more of the share capital of this company, calculated by methods required by German law as of the last trading day of the past month.
- (7) Within the last five years Hauck & Aufhäuser was a member of the issuing syndicate of this company.
- (8) The research report has been made available to the company prior to its publication / dissemination. Thereafter, only factual changes have been made to the report
Historical target price and rating changes for CANCOM AG in the last 12 months
Valuation basis/rating key
Buy: Sustainable upside potential of more than 10% within 12 months.
Sell: Sustainable downside potential of more than 10% within 12 months.
Hold: Upside/downside potential limited. No immediate catalyst visible.
Competent supervisory authority
Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht – BaFin – (Federal Financial Supervisory Authority), Graurheindorfer Straße 108, 53117 Bonn and Lurgiallee 12, 60439 Frankfurt am Main, Germany
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