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CANCOM SE — Earnings Release 2012
Jun 19, 2012
71_rns_2012-06-19_1fe0987c-f2a4-49f7-9132-76c1b8711119.pdf
Earnings Release
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CANCOM AG Germany - IT Services
| Buy (old: Buy) | 19-June-12 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price target: EUR 18.50 | (old: EUR 18.50) | Tim Wunderlich, CFA Analyst |
||
| Price: | EUR 13.85 | Next result: | Q2 2012: 09.08.12 | |
| Bloomberg: | COK GR | Market cap: | EUR 142.2 m | [email protected] |
| Reuters: | COKG.DE | Enterprise Value: | EUR 109.8 m | Tel.: +49 40 4143885 81 |
TecDax entry and move towards Cloud Computing drive re-rating
Peer Computacenter's trading statement released last week underpinned the healthy IT market environment and presented a positive x-read for CANCOM. Service growth was 15% y-o-y in H1 '12 (at constant currency) implying an acceleration of growth in Q2 '12 given that growth in Q1 amounted to "merely" 11%. In our view, Computacenter's service growth in Germany in H1 '12 should have been even above the mentioned 15% given that a weak UK business biases group top-line growth to the downside. In its outlook, Computacenter said it expects growth rates to remain on these elevated levels throughout 2012.
Thriving on the positive IT climate, CANCOM has been a clear outperformer of the TecDax recently (50% in the last 3 months and 6 months) triggered not only by strong Q1 results (sales +13% y-o-y / EBITDA +50% y-o-y) but also by an expansion of the P/E multiple for 2013E from 6.7 at the beginning of 2012 to 8.6 currently (figures based on consensus estimates). This positive re-rating in times of growing macro uncertainty is seen to be due to:
- Higher investor interest in light of the TecDax entry and index funds having to buy the stock.
- Higher liquidity which improved from € 200,000 per day at the beginning of the year to € 650,000 per day currently (vs. € 900,000 per day for Bechtle).
- The company's success in moving towards Cloud Computing on the back of its proprietary AHP platform making the implementation of a Cloud solution much faster and cheaper. Related projects are high-margin and throw off recurring maintenance sales (eH&A: Up to € 80,000 per month depending on project size).
That said, CANCOM remains our favoured pick in the German IT Services sector given (1) Cheap valuation in absolute (c. 8x earnings 2013E) and relative terms (10% discount to Bechtle on PER 2013E); (2) Strong footprint in Cloud Computing which has helped narrow the EBIT margin gap to Bechtle to 0.2pp (2012E) versus 2.6pp in 2008 despite CANCOM's smaller size; (3) Pure Play on Germany (90% of sales) with no exposure to ailing Southern European countries or France. This explains why CANCOM outgrew Bechtle in Q1 '12 (13% y-o-y sales growth vs. 7%). Remains a BUY with a PT of € 18.50 based on DCF.
| Y/E 31.12 (EUR m) | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012E | 2013E | 2014E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | 342.8 | 348.3 | 474.6 | 544.4 | 594.0 | 624.4 | 654.4 |
| Sales growth | 14 % | 2 % | 36 % | 15 % | 9 % | 5 % | 5 % |
| EBITDA | 7.8 | 9.5 | 19.0 | 25.0 | 29.9 | 32.9 | 35.8 |
| EBIT | 5.6 | 7.1 | 15.2 | 18.5 | 24.3 | 26.6 | 28.8 |
| Net income | 2.7 | 5.1 | 7.8 | 11.5 | 16.1 | 18.3 | 20.0 |
| Net debt | 3.9 | -3.5 | -0.9 | -18.5 | -32.5 | -44.1 | -56.8 |
| Net gearing | 9.9 % | -8.0 % | -1.8 % | -30.4 % | -44.0 % | -49.5 % | -54.1 % |
| Net Debt/EBITDA | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| EPS fully diluted | 0.26 | 0.49 | 0.76 | 1.11 | 1.55 | 1.76 | 1.92 |
| CPS | 1.05 | 0.80 | 1.28 | 2.18 | 2.13 | 1.86 | 2.06 |
| DPS | 0.00 | 0.15 | 0.15 | 0.30 | 0.30 | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| Dividend yield | 0.0 % | 1.1 % | 1.1 % | 2.2 % | 2.2 % | 2.9 % | 2.9 % |
| Gross profit margin | 29.9 % | 31.0 % | 29.3 % | 29.1 % | 29.1 % | 29.1 % | 29.1 % |
| EBITDA margin | 2.3 % | 2.7 % | 4.0 % | 4.6 % | 5.0 % | 5.3 % | 5.5 % |
| EBIT margin | 1.6 % | 2.0 % | 3.2 % | 3.4 % | 4.1 % | 4.3 % | 4.4 % |
| ROCE | 8.9 % | 10.5 % | 19.5 % | 20.6 % | 25.2 % | 25.9 % | 25.0 % |
| EV/sales | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| EV/EBITDA | 18.9 | 14.8 | 7.4 | 4.9 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 2.4 |
| EV/EBIT | 26.3 | 19.7 | 9.3 | 6.7 | 4.5 | 3.7 | 3.0 |
| PER | 45.4 | 28.8 | 15.0 | 12.1 | 9.0 | 7.9 | 7.2 |
| Adjusted FCF yield | 3.0 % | 4.4 % | 8.2 % | 12.8 % | 16.7 % | 20.5 % | 26.3 % |
Source: Company data, Hauck & Aufhäuser Close price as of: 18.06.2012
Source: Company data, Hauck & Aufhäuser
| High/low 52 weeks: | 13.85 / 6.74 |
|---|---|
| Price/Book Ratio: | 1.9 |
| Relative performance (TecDAX): | |
| 3 months | 49.8 % |
| 6 months | 49.6 % |
| 12 months | 83.5 % |
Changes in estimates
| Sales | EBIT | EPS | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | old: | 594.0 | 24.3 | 1.55 |
| ∆ | - | - | - | |
| old: | 624.4 | 26.6 | 1.76 | |
| 2013 | ∆ | - | - | - |
| 2014 | old: | 654.4 | 28.8 | 1.92 |
| ∆ | - | - | - |
Key share data:
| Number of shares: (in m pcs) | 10.4 |
|---|---|
| Authorised capital: (in € m) | 4.0 |
| Book value per share: (in €) | 7.1 |
| Ø trading volume: (12 months) | 60,000 |
Major shareholders:
| Free Float | 82.7 % |
|---|---|
| JP Morgan | 5.3 % |
| AGI | 5.0 % |
| Stefan Kober | 2.5 % |
| Raymond Kober | 2.5 % |
| Klaus Weinmann | 2.0 % |
Company description:
CANCOM is Germany's 3rd largest independent system house operating a scalable eCommerce business.
Financials
| Profit and loss (EUR m) | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012E | 2013E | 2014E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales | 342.8 | 348.3 | 474.6 | 544.4 | 594.0 | 624.4 | 654.4 |
| Sales growth | 14.2 % | 1.6 % | 36.2 % | 14.7 % | 9.1 % | 5.1 % | 4.8 % |
| Increase/decrease in finished goods and work-in-process | 0.3 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Total sales | 343.1 | 349.3 | 475.8 | 545.3 | 594.8 | 625.4 | 655.4 |
| Other operating income | 0.3 | 2.3 | 3.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 |
| Material expenses | 240.7 | 241.1 | 336.3 | 386.6 | 421.6 | 443.4 | 464.8 |
| Personnel expenses | 71.0 | 79.2 | 97.0 | 108.0 | 116.2 | 121.2 | 125.7 |
| Other operating expenses | 24.0 | 21.8 | 26.8 | 26.4 | 27.3 | 28.3 | 29.6 |
| Total operating expenses | 335.3 | 339.8 | 456.8 | 520.3 | 564.9 | 592.5 | 619.6 |
| EBITDA | 7.8 | 9.5 | 19.0 | 25.0 | 29.9 | 32.9 | 35.8 |
| Depreciation | 2.2 | 2.4 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 3.4 | 3.8 | 4.3 |
| EBITA | 5.6 | 7.1 | 15.2 | 22.2 | 26.5 | 29.1 | 31.5 |
| Amortisation of goodwill | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Amortisation of intangible assets | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 2.7 |
| Impairment charges | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| EBIT | 5.6 | 7.1 | 15.2 | 18.5 | 24.3 | 26.6 | 28.8 |
| Interest income | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Interest expenses | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Other financial result | -0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Financial result | -1.2 | -1.1 | -1.8 | -1.6 | -1.1 | -0.1 | 0.1 |
| Recurring pretax income from continuing operations | 4.4 | 5.9 | 13.3 | 16.9 | 23.2 | 26.5 | 28.9 |
| Extraordinary income/loss | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Earnings before taxes | 4.4 | 5.9 | 13.3 | 16.9 | 23.2 | 26.5 | 28.9 |
| Taxes | 1.3 | 0.9 | 3.7 | 4.9 | 7.0 | 7.9 | 8.7 |
| Net income from continuing operations | 3.2 | 5.0 | 9.6 | 12.0 | 16.3 | 18.5 | 20.2 |
| Result from discontinued operations (net of tax) | 0.5 | -0.1 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Net income | 2.7 | 5.1 | 7.9 | 11.7 | 16.3 | 18.5 | 20.2 |
| Minority interest | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Net income (net of minority interest) | 2.7 | 5.1 | 7.8 | 11.5 | 16.1 | 18.3 | 20.0 |
| Average number of shares | 10.4 | 10.4 | 10.3 | 10.4 | 10.4 | 10.4 | 10.4 |
| EPS reported | 0.26 | 0.49 | 0.76 | 1.11 | 1.55 | 1.76 | 1.92 |
| Profit and loss (common size) | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012E | 2013E | 2014E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % |
| Increase/decrease in finished goods and work-in-process | 0.1 % | 0.3 % | 0.3 % | 0.2 % | 0.1 % | 0.2 % | 0.2 % |
| Total sales | 100.1 % | 100.3 % | 100.3 % | 100.2 % | 100.1 % | 100.2 % | 100.2 % |
| Other operating income | 0.1 % | 0.6 % | 0.7 % | 0.1 % | 0.0 % | 0.1 % | 0.1 % |
| Material expenses | 70.2 % | 69.2 % | 70.9 % | 71.0 % | 71.0 % | 71.0 % | 71.0 % |
| Personnel expenses | 20.7 % | 22.7 % | 20.4 % | 19.8 % | 19.6 % | 19.4 % | 19.2 % |
| Other operating expenses | 7.0 % | 6.3 % | 5.7 % | 4.8 % | 4.6 % | 4.5 % | 4.5 % |
| Total operating expenses | 97.8 % | 97.6 % | 96.3 % | 95.6 % | 95.1 % | 94.9 % | 94.7 % |
| EBITDA | 2.3 % | 2.7 % | 4.0 % | 4.6 % | 5.0 % | 5.3 % | 5.5 % |
| Depreciation | 0.6 % | 0.7 % | 0.8 % | 0.5 % | 0.6 % | 0.6 % | 0.7 % |
| EBITA | 1.6 % | 2.0 % | 3.2 % | 4.1 % | 4.5 % | 4.7 % | 4.8 % |
| Amortisation of goodwill | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % |
| Amortisation of intangible assets | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.7 % | 0.4 % | 0.4 % | 0.4 % |
| Impairment charges | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % |
| EBIT | 1.6 % | 2.0 % | 3.2 % | 3.4 % | 4.1 % | 4.3 % | 4.4 % |
| Interest income | 0.1 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.1 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % |
| Interest expenses | 0.4 % | 0.4 % | 0.4 % | 0.4 % | 0.3 % | 0.1 % | 0.1 % |
| Other financial result | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.1 % | 0.1 % | 0.1 % | 0.1 % |
| Financial result | -0.4 % | -0.3 % | -0.4 % | -0.3 % | -0.2 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % |
| Recurring pretax income from continuing operations | 1.3 % | 1.7 % | 2.8 % | 3.1 % | 3.9 % | 4.2 % | 4.4 % |
| Extraordinary income/loss | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % |
| Earnings before taxes | 1.3 % | 1.7 % | 2.8 % | 3.1 % | 3.9 % | 4.2 % | 4.4 % |
| Tax rate | 28.3 % | 15.6 % | 28.1 % | 28.8 % | 30.0 % | 30.0 % | 30.0 % |
| Net income from continuing operations | 0.9 % | 1.4 % | 2.0 % | 2.2 % | 2.7 % | 3.0 % | 3.1 % |
| Income from discontinued operations (net of tax) | 0.1 % | 0.0 % | 0.4 % | 0.1 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % |
| Net income | 0.8 % | 1.5 % | 1.7 % | 2.1 % | 2.7 % | 3.0 % | 3.1 % |
| Minority interest | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % |
| Net income (net of minority interest) | 0.8 % | 1.5 % | 1.6 % | 2.1 % | 2.7 % | 2.9 % | 3.1 % |
| Balance sheet (EUR m) | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012E | 2013E | 2014E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Intangible assets | 28.3 | 31.5 | 42.5 | 39.6 | 40.2 | 40.7 | 41.0 |
| Property, plant and equipment | 5.4 | 6.5 | 9.7 | 12.9 | 16.6 | 19.4 | 22.1 |
| Financial assets | 3.5 | 0.2 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 |
| FIXED ASSETS | 37.3 | 38.2 | 55.4 | 54.6 | 58.9 | 62.2 | 65.2 |
| Inventories | 10.1 | 12.6 | 13.4 | 15.0 | 15.8 | 16.7 | 17.5 |
| Accounts receivable | 44.2 | 47.2 | 68.0 | 72.2 | 76.5 | 80.4 | 84.3 |
| Other current assets | 6.3 | 5.1 | 6.4 | 7.2 | 7.2 | 7.2 | 7.2 |
| Liquid assets | 18.3 | 25.8 | 31.5 | 44.4 | 49.0 | 54.2 | 66.8 |
| Deferred taxes | 2.5 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Deferred charges and prepaid expenses | 2.1 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| CURRENT ASSETS | 83.4 | 96.7 | 122.0 | 140.2 | 150.0 | 159.9 | 177.2 |
| TOTAL ASSETS | 120.7 | 134.9 | 177.4 | 194.9 | 209.0 | 222.2 | 242.5 |
| SHAREHOLDERS EQUITY | 38.9 | 43.9 | 50.9 | 60.7 | 73.8 | 89.1 | 105.0 |
| MINORITY INTEREST | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Long-term debt | 20.3 | 21.6 | 29.0 | 16.7 | 11.6 | 5.6 | 5.6 |
| Provisions for pensions and similar obligations | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Other provisions | 3.2 | 4.3 | 3.2 | 7.6 | 7.6 | 7.6 | 7.6 |
| Non-current liabilities | 23.6 | 26.0 | 32.2 | 24.4 | 19.2 | 13.2 | 13.2 |
| short-term liabilities to banks | 1.8 | 0.7 | 1.6 | 9.1 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 4.5 |
| Accounts payable | 39.3 | 47.9 | 64.4 | 72.9 | 83.0 | 87.2 | 91.4 |
| Advance payments received on orders | 2.0 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 |
| Other liabilities (incl. from lease and rental contracts) | 12.6 | 10.7 | 16.3 | 17.4 | 17.4 | 17.4 | 17.4 |
| Deferred taxes | 1.3 | 2.0 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.7 |
| Deferred income | 1.2 | 2.7 | 6.0 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.6 |
| Current liabilities | 58.1 | 65.0 | 94.2 | 109.6 | 115.5 | 119.3 | 123.5 |
| TOTAL LIABILITIES AND SHAREHOLDERS EQUITY | 120.7 | 134.9 | 177.4 | 194.9 | 209.0 | 222.2 | 242.5 |
| Balance sheet (common size) | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012E | 2013E | 2014E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Intangible assets | 23.5 % | 23.4 % | 24.0 % | 20.3 % | 19.2 % | 18.3 % | 16.9 % |
| Property, plant and equipment | 4.5 % | 4.8 % | 5.5 % | 6.6 % | 7.9 % | 8.7 % | 9.1 % |
| Financial assets | 2.9 % | 0.1 % | 1.8 % | 1.1 % | 1.0 % | 1.0 % | 0.9 % |
| FIXED ASSETS | 30.9 % | 28.3 % | 31.2 % | 28.0 % | 28.2 % | 28.0 % | 26.9 % |
| Inventories | 8.4 % | 9.3 % | 7.5 % | 7.7 % | 7.6 % | 7.5 % | 7.2 % |
| Accounts receivable | 36.6 % | 35.0 % | 38.3 % | 37.1 % | 36.6 % | 36.2 % | 34.8 % |
| Other current assets | 5.2 % | 3.8 % | 3.6 % | 3.7 % | 3.4 % | 3.2 % | 3.0 % |
| Liquid assets | 15.1 % | 19.2 % | 17.7 % | 22.8 % | 23.5 % | 24.4 % | 27.6 % |
| Deferred taxes | 2.1 % | 1.9 % | 0.4 % | 0.3 % | 0.3 % | 0.3 % | 0.3 % |
| Deferred charges and prepaid expenses | 1.7 % | 2.5 % | 1.1 % | 0.4 % | 0.4 % | 0.4 % | 0.4 % |
| CURRENT ASSETS | 69.1 % | 71.7 % | 68.8 % | 72.0 % | 71.8 % | 72.0 % | 73.1 % |
| TOTAL ASSETS | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % |
| SHAREHOLDERS EQUITY | 32.3 % | 32.5 % | 28.7 % | 31.2 % | 35.3 % | 40.1 % | 43.3 % |
| MINORITY INTEREST | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.1 % | 0.2 % | 0.3 % | 0.3 % |
| Long-term debt | 16.9 % | 16.0 % | 16.3 % | 8.6 % | 5.5 % | 2.5 % | 2.3 % |
| Provisions for pensions and similar obligations | 0.1 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % |
| Other provisions | 2.6 % | 3.2 % | 1.8 % | 3.9 % | 3.6 % | 3.4 % | 3.1 % |
| Non-current liabilities | 19.6 % | 19.3 % | 18.2 % | 12.5 % | 9.2 % | 5.9 % | 5.5 % |
| short-term liabilities to banks | 1.5 % | 0.5 % | 0.9 % | 4.7 % | 2.4 % | 2.0 % | 1.9 % |
| Accounts payable | 32.5 % | 35.5 % | 36.3 % | 37.4 % | 39.7 % | 39.3 % | 37.7 % |
| Advance payments received on orders | 1.6 % | 0.8 % | 0.9 % | 1.0 % | 0.9 % | 0.8 % | 0.8 % |
| Other liabilities (incl. from lease and rental contracts) | 10.4 % | 7.9 % | 9.2 % | 9.0 % | 8.3 % | 7.9 % | 7.2 % |
| Deferred taxes | 1.1 % | 1.5 % | 2.4 % | 1.4 % | 1.3 % | 1.2 % | 1.1 % |
| Deferred income | 1.0 % | 2.0 % | 3.4 % | 2.9 % | 2.7 % | 2.5 % | 2.3 % |
| Current liabilities | 48.2 % | 48.2 % | 53.1 % | 56.2 % | 55.3 % | 53.7 % | 50.9 % |
| TOTAL LIABILITIES AND SHAREHOLDERS EQUITY | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % |
| Cash flow statement (EUR m) | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012E | 2013E | 2014E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net profit/loss | 2.7 | 5.1 | 7.9 | 11.7 | 16.3 | 18.5 | 20.2 |
| Depreciation of fixed assets (incl. leases) | 2.2 | 2.4 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 3.4 | 3.8 | 4.3 |
| Amortisation of goodwill | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Amortisation of intangible assets | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 2.7 |
| Others | -10.8 | -0.6 | 3.0 | 4.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Cash flow from operations before changes in w/c | -6.0 | 6.9 | 14.7 | 22.9 | 21.9 | 24.8 | 27.2 |
| Increase/decrease in inventory | 0.9 | -0.9 | 0.3 | -6.3 | -0.8 | -0.8 | -0.8 |
| Increase/decrease in accounts receivable | 4.4 | 0.8 | -15.2 | -5.2 | -4.3 | -3.9 | -3.9 |
| Increase/decrease in accounts payable | 4.3 | 2.7 | 17.1 | 15.3 | 10.1 | 4.2 | 4.2 |
| Increase/decrease in other working capital positions | 9.5 | 1.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Increase/decrease in working capital | 19.0 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 3.8 | 5.0 | -0.5 | -0.5 |
| Cash flow from operating activities | 13.1 | 10.7 | 16.9 | 26.7 | 26.8 | 24.3 | 26.8 |
| CAPEX | 3.0 | 4.7 | 8.1 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 9.6 | 10.0 |
| Payments for acquisitions | 6.6 | 0.4 | 10.5 | 3.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Financial investments | -0.3 | -0.2 | -0.1 | -0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Income from asset disposals | 8.1 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 4.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Cash flow from investing activities | -1.2 | -2.6 | -17.3 | -7.9 | -9.9 | -9.6 | -10.0 |
| Cash flow before financing | 11.9 | 8.0 | -0.4 | 18.8 | 16.9 | 14.7 | 16.8 |
| Increase/decrease in debt position | -3.5 | 0.1 | 8.1 | -2.6 | -9.3 | -6.5 | 0.0 |
| Purchase of own shares | 0.0 | 0.2 | -0.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Capital measures | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Dividends paid | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 4.1 |
| Others | -1.0 | -1.0 | -1.3 | -1.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Effects of exchange rate changes on cash | -0.3 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Cash flow from financing activities | -4.5 | -1.1 | 5.9 | -5.8 | -12.4 | -9.6 | -4.1 |
| Increase/decrease in liquid assets | 7.1 | 7.0 | 5.6 | 13.0 | 4.5 | 5.2 | 12.7 |
| Liquid assets at end of period | 18.9 | 25.8 | 31.5 | 44.5 | 49.0 | 54.2 | 66.8 |
Source: Company data, Hauck & Aufhäuser
| 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012E | 2013E | 2014E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 322.2 | 386.1 | 441.7 | 502.0 | 549.5 | 578.8 | 608.6 |
| n/a | 19.8 % | 14.4 % | 13.7 % | 9.5 % | 5.3 % | 5.1 % |
| 0.0 | 36.4 | 32.9 | 42.4 | 44.6 | 45.6 | 45.8 |
| n/a | n/a | -9.6 % | 28.9 % | 5.1 % | 2.3 % | 0.5 % |
| 0.0 | 0.0 | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| 0.0 | 0.0 | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| 0.0 | 0.0 | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| 322.2 | 422.5 | 474.6 | 544.4 | 594.0 | 624.4 | 654.4 |
| n/a | 31.1 % | 12.3 % | 14.7 % | 9.1 % | 5.1 % | 4.8 % |
| P&L growth analysis Sales growth 14.2 % 1.6 % 36.2 % 14.7 % 9.1 % 5.1 % 4.8 % EBITDA growth -2.7 % 21.3 % 100.7 % 31.6 % 19.6 % 10.0 % 8.8 % EBIT growth -8.8 % 26.0 % 114.0 % 21.7 % 31.7 % 9.5 % 8.3 % EPS growth -42.4 % 87.8 % 55.5 % 46.4 % 39.5 % 13.9 % 9.2 % Efficiency Total operating costs / sales 97.8 % 97.6 % 96.3 % 95.6 % 95.1 % 94.9 % 94.7 % Sales per employee 215.9 196.0 257.7 273.1 280.6 282.2 585.6 EBITDA per employee 4.9 5.3 10.3 12.5 14.1 14.9 32.0 Balance sheet analysis Avg. working capital / sales 4.8 % 3.4 % 2.8 % 2.6 % 1.7 % 1.2 % 1.2 % Inventory turnover (sales/inventory) 34.0 27.7 35.5 36.3 37.5 37.5 37.5 Trade debtors in days of sales 47.0 49.5 52.3 48.4 47.0 47.0 47.0 A/P turnover [(A/P*365)/sales] 41.8 50.1 49.6 48.9 51.0 51.0 51.0 Cash conversion cycle (days) 2.8 -3.9 -3.1 -6.3 -11.1 -11.1 -11.1 Cash flow analysis Free cash flow 10.1 6.0 8.8 17.3 16.9 14.7 16.8 Free cash flow/sales 2.9 % 1.7 % 1.9 % 3.2 % 2.9 % 2.4 % 2.6 % FCF / net profit 374.5 % 118.4 % 113.1 % 150.3 % 105.3 % 80.5 % 83.8 % FCF yield 7.0 % 4.2 % 6.2 % 12.2 % 11.9 % 10.4 % 11.8 % Capex / depn 122.1 % 188.4 % 206.6 % 139.0 % 176.8 % 152.4 % 142.9 % Capex / maintenance capex 114.9 % 137.6 % 133.1 % 151.6 % 142.0 % 124.5 % 125.0 % Capex / sales 0.8 % 1.3 % 1.7 % 1.7 % n/a n/a n/a Security Net debt 3.9 -3.5 -0.9 -18.5 -32.5 -44.1 -56.8 Net Debt/EBITDA 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net debt / equity 0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 Interest cover 4.0 5.4 8.0 8.3 14.3 33.3 47.7 Dividend payout ratio 0.0 % 30.7 % 19.7 % 26.7 % 19.2 % 22.4 % 20.5 % Asset utilisation Capital employed turnover 5.3 4.9 5.6 5.8 6.0 5.8 5.3 |
|---|
| Operating assets turnover 18.6 20.1 18.9 21.5 24.7 22.8 21.4 |
| Plant turnover 63.5 53.4 49.0 42.2 35.8 32.2 29.6 |
| Inventory turnover (sales/inventory) 34.0 27.7 35.5 36.3 37.5 37.5 37.5 |
| Returns |
| ROCE 8.9 % 10.5 % 19.5 % 20.6 % 25.2 % 25.9 % 25.0 % |
| ROE 6.9 % 11.5 % 15.4 % 19.0 % 21.8 % 20.6 % 19.1 % |
| Other |
| Interest paid / avg. debt 7.0 % 5.9 % 7.2 % 7.9 % 8.0 % 6.0 % 6.0 % |
| No. employees (average) 1588 1777 1842 1994 2117 2213 1118 |
| Number of shares 10.4 10.4 10.3 10.4 10.4 10.4 10.4 |
| DPS 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 |
| EPS reported 0.26 0.49 0.76 1.11 1.55 1.76 1.92 |
| Valuation ratios |
| P/BV 3.7 3.3 2.8 2.4 1.9 1.6 1.4 |
| EV/sales 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 |
| EV/EBITDA 18.9 14.8 7.4 4.9 3.7 3.0 2.4 |
| EV/EBITA 26.3 19.7 9.3 5.6 4.1 3.4 2.7 EV/EBIT 26.3 19.7 9.3 6.7 4.5 3.7 3.0 |
| EV/FCF 14.6 23.3 16.0 7.1 6.5 6.7 5.1 |
| Dividend yield 0.0 % 1.1 % 1.1 % 2.2 % 2.2 % 2.9 % 2.9 % |
Disclosure in respect of section 34b of the German Securities Trading Act (Wertpapierhandelsgesetz – WpHG)
| Company | Disclosure |
|---|---|
| CANCOM AG | 2, 5 |
(1) Hauck & Aufhäuser or its affiliate(s) was Lead Manager or Co-Lead Manager over the previous 12 months of a public offering of this company.
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(5) Hauck & Aufhäuser holds a trading position in shares of this company.
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(7) Within the last five years Hauck & Aufhäuser was a member of the issuing syndicate of this company.
(8) The research report has been made available to the company prior to its publication / dissemination. Thereafter, only factual changes have been made to the report
Historical target price and rating changes for CANCOM AG in the last 12 months
| Buy | 83.33 % | 100.00 % |
|---|---|---|
| Sell | 7.14 % | 0.00 % |
| Hold | 9.52 % | 0.00 % |
Valuation basis/rating key
Buy: Sustainable upside potential of more than 10% within 12 months.
Sell: Sustainable downside potential of more than 10% within 12 months.
Hold: Upside/downside potential limited. No immediate catalyst visible.
Competent supervisory authority
Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht – BaFin – (Federal Financial Supervisory Authority), Graurheindorfer Straße 108, 53117 Bonn and Lurgiallee 12, 60439 Frankfurt am Main, Germany
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