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CANCOM SE — Earnings Release 2010
Mar 24, 2011
71_rns_2011-03-24_0be562d1-23e5-4258-9076-c00b8ef10a92.pdf
Earnings Release
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CANCOM AG Germany - IT Services
| Buy (old: Buy) | 23-March-11 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price target: EUR 15.00 | (old: EUR 15.00) | Tim Wunderlich Analyst |
||
| Price: | EUR 9.17 | Next result: | FY 2010: 31.03.11 | |
| Bloomberg: | COK GR | Market cap: | EUR 76.9 m | [email protected] |
| Reuters: | COKG.DE | Enterprise Value: | EUR 72.9 m | Tel.: +49 40 4143885 81 |
Strategic partnership with IBM offers attractive potential; BUY
CANCOM announced it has entered into a long-term strategic partnership with global giant IBM to jointly market its private Cloud Computing solution to the German Mittelstand. This should include shared trade-fair appearances, customer events and road shows.
The agreement has come into existence following IBM's thorough analysis of CANCOM's Cloud solution, underscoring its technological sophistication. For customers, the Cloud's appeal lies in its ROI of less than one year as it cuts operating costs by rationalising IT infrastructure, i.e. reducing the number of needed computing centres. Facing competition only from visionapp, CANCOM's Cloud solution is virtually unrivalled in Germany.
The rationale for IBM to enter the deal is simple: it does not have a proprietary Cloud solution meeting the needs of small- and medium-sized enterprises but sees a bright future for this market as its clientele is increasingly taking a shine to the Cloud. Winning a tender, IBM will benefit by selling hardware and software as add-ons and using its consultants for project implementation. In our view, it does not get a share of the Cloud Computing software margin.
More importantly, the partnership is highly lucrative to CANCOM as customer wins should come naturally on the back of IBM's distribution clout and renowned brand. This is seen to mark a big step for CANCOM to achieve its target of increasing its Cloud client base tenfold to 100 by 2013E.
As a result, CANCOM will add a highly profitable business to its current set-up: With 100 customers, annual maintenance revenues could amount to € 12m, translating into EBITDA of € 8-10m per year as the business is very scalable. This is not included in our estimates and hence provides significant upside potential. According to CANCOM, first positive impacts from the partnership should already be felt in 2011E. Remains a clear BUY with an unchanged PT of € 15 based on DCF.
| Y/E 31.12 (EUR m) | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011E | 2012E | 2013E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | 300.1 | 364.1 | 422.5 | 549.3 | 605.1 | 639.0 | 667.7 |
| Sales growth | 13 % | 21 % | 16 % | 30 % | 10 % | 6 % | 5 % |
| EBITDA | 8.0 | 8.8 | 10.4 | 19.2 | 23.1 | 25.8 | 26.9 |
| EBIT | 6.2 | 5.4 | 7.0 | 13.7 | 17.1 | 19.3 | 20.3 |
| Net income | 4.7 | 2.7 | 5.1 | 7.9 | 10.1 | 11.7 | 12.6 |
| Net debt | 6.2 | 3.9 | -3.5 | -1.5 | -4.0 | -12.0 | -19.8 |
| Net gearing | 17.2 % | 9.9 % | -8.0 % | -3.0 % | -7.0 % | -18.4 % | -27.3 % |
| Net Debt/EBITDA | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| EPS fully diluted | 0.45 | 0.36 | 0.49 | 0.87 | 0.97 | 1.12 | 1.21 |
| CPS | 0.40 | 1.03 | 0.71 | 1.24 | 0.60 | 1.21 | 1.29 |
| DPS | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 0.27 | 0.39 | 0.51 | 0.61 |
| Dividend yield | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 2.0 % | 3.5 % | 5.2 % | 6.7 % | 8.1 % |
| Gross profit margin | 28.8 % | 29.1 % | 27.5 % | 27.6 % | 27.2 % | 27.9 % | 27.9 % |
| EBITDA margin | 2.7 % | 2.4 % | 2.5 % | 3.5 % | 3.8 % | 4.0 % | 4.0 % |
| EBIT margin | 2.1 % | 1.5 % | 1.6 % | 2.5 % | 2.8 % | 3.0 % | 3.0 % |
| ROCE | 10.6 % | 8.5 % | 10.3 % | 17.7 % | 19.4 % | 20.1 % | 19.7 % |
| EV/sales | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.5 | 9.4 | 7.1 | 3.9 | 3.2 | 2.5 | 2.1 |
| EV/EBIT | 13.7 | 15.3 | 10.6 | 5.5 | 4.3 | 3.4 | 2.8 |
| PER | 16.1 | 28.2 | 15.4 | 9.9 | 7.7 | 6.7 | 6.2 |
| Adjusted FCF yield | 6.7 % | 6.4 % | 8.6 % | 15.4 % | 20.5 % | 26.3 % | 32.1 % |
Source: Company data, Hauck & Aufhäuser Close price as of: 22.03.2011
Source: Company data, Hauck & Aufhäuser
| High/low 52 weeks: | 11.40 / 5.28 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price/Book Ratio: | 1.7 | ||||||
| Relative performance (TecDAX): | |||||||
| 3 months | -8.0 % | ||||||
| 6 months | 12.8 % | ||||||
| 12 months | 39.5 % |
Changes in estimates
| Sales | EBIT | EPS | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| old: | 605.1 | 17.1 | 0.97 | |
| 2011 ∆ |
- | - | - | |
| old: | 639.0 | 19.3 | 1.12 | |
| 2012 | ∆ | - | - | - |
| old: | 667.7 | 20.3 | 1.21 | |
| 2013 | ∆ | - | - | - |
Key share data:
| Number of shares: (in m pcs) | 10.4 |
|---|---|
| Authorised capital: (in € m) | 4.0 |
| Book value per share: (in €) | 5.5 |
| Ø trading volume: (12 months) | 60,000 |
Major shareholders:
| Free Float | 84.8 % |
|---|---|
| JP Morgan | 5.3 % |
| AGI | 3.0 % |
| Stefan Kober | 2.5 % |
| Raymond Kober | 2.5 % |
| Klaus Weinmann | 1.9 % |
Company description:
CANCOM is the 3rd largest independent system house and IT hardware reseller in Germany.
Financials
| Profit and loss (EUR m) | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011E | 2012E | 2013E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales | 300.1 | 364.1 | 422.5 | 549.3 | 605.1 | 639.0 | 667.7 |
| Sales growth | 13.2 % | 21.3 % | 16.0 % | 30.0 % | 10.2 % | 5.6 % | 4.5 % |
| Increase/decrease in finished goods and work-in-process | 0.9 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Total sales | 301.0 | 364.5 | 423.4 | 550.0 | 606.1 | 640.0 | 668.8 |
| Other operating income | 1.5 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.3 |
| Material expenses | 214.2 | 258.3 | 306.8 | 398.0 | 441.2 | 461.6 | 482.4 |
| Personnel expenses | 59.0 | 73.0 | 82.8 | 103.4 | 111.7 | 121.5 | 127.0 |
| Other operating expenses | 21.2 | 26.1 | 26.1 | 31.3 | 32.2 | 33.3 | 34.8 |
| Total operating expenses | 293.0 | 355.7 | 413.1 | 530.8 | 583.0 | 614.2 | 641.8 |
| EBITDA | 8.0 | 8.8 | 10.4 | 19.2 | 23.1 | 25.8 | 26.9 |
| Depreciation | 1.4 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 3.6 |
| EBITA | 6.6 | 7.4 | 7.9 | 16.3 | 19.7 | 22.1 | 23.3 |
| Amortisation of goodwill | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 1.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Amortisation of intangible assets | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 3.0 |
| Impairment charges | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| EBIT | 6.2 | 5.4 | 7.0 | 13.7 | 17.1 | 19.3 | 20.3 |
| Interest income | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Interest expenses | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.6 |
| Other financial result | 0.0 | -0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.2 | -0.1 | 0.0 |
| Financial result | -0.9 | -1.3 | -1.3 | -1.9 | -2.6 | -2.5 | -2.4 |
| Recurring pretax income from continuing operations | 5.3 | 4.0 | 5.7 | 11.8 | 14.5 | 16.8 | 18.0 |
| Extraordinary income/loss | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Earnings before taxes | 5.3 | 4.0 | 5.7 | 11.8 | 14.5 | 16.8 | 18.0 |
| Taxes | -0.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 3.9 | 4.4 | 5.0 | 5.4 |
| Net income from continuing operations | 5.4 | 2.8 | 5.1 | 7.9 | 10.2 | 11.7 | 12.6 |
| Result from discontinued operations (net of tax) | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Net income | 5.2 | 2.7 | 5.1 | 7.9 | 10.2 | 11.7 | 12.6 |
| Minority interest | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Net income (net of minority interest) | 4.7 | 2.7 | 5.1 | 7.9 | 10.1 | 11.7 | 12.6 |
| Average number of shares | 10.4 | 10.4 | 10.4 | 10.4 | 10.4 | 10.4 | 10.4 |
| EPS reported | 0.45 | 0.26 | 0.49 | 0.76 | 0.97 | 1.12 | 1.21 |
| Profit and loss (common size) | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011E | 2012E | 2013E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % |
| Increase/decrease in finished goods and work-in-process | 0.3 % | 0.1 % | 0.2 % | 0.1 % | 0.2 % | 0.2 % | 0.2 % |
| Total sales | 100.3 % | 100.1 % | 100.2 % | 100.1 % | 100.2 % | 100.2 % | 100.2 % |
| Other operating income | 0.5 % | 0.5 % | 0.6 % | 0.3 % | 0.3 % | 0.3 % | 0.3 % |
| Material expenses | 71.4 % | 70.9 % | 72.6 % | 72.5 % | 72.9 % | 72.2 % | 72.2 % |
| Personnel expenses | 19.7 % | 20.1 % | 19.6 % | 18.8 % | 18.5 % | 19.0 % | 19.0 % |
| Other operating expenses | 7.1 % | 7.2 % | 6.2 % | 5.7 % | 5.3 % | 5.2 % | 5.2 % |
| Total operating expenses | 97.6 % | 97.7 % | 97.8 % | 96.6 % | 96.3 % | 96.1 % | 96.1 % |
| EBITDA | 2.7 % | 2.4 % | 2.5 % | 3.5 % | 3.8 % | 4.0 % | 4.0 % |
| Depreciation | 0.5 % | 0.4 % | 0.6 % | 0.5 % | 0.6 % | 0.6 % | 0.5 % |
| EBITA | 2.2 % | 2.0 % | 1.9 % | 3.0 % | 3.3 % | 3.5 % | 3.5 % |
| Amortisation of goodwill | 0.0 % | 0.3 % | 0.0 % | 0.2 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % |
| Amortisation of intangible assets | 0.2 % | 0.3 % | 0.2 % | 0.3 % | 0.4 % | 0.4 % | 0.4 % |
| Impairment charges | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % |
| EBIT | 2.1 % | 1.5 % | 1.6 % | 2.5 % | 2.8 % | 3.0 % | 3.0 % |
| Interest income | 0.1 % | 0.1 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % |
| Interest expenses | 0.3 % | 0.4 % | 0.3 % | 0.4 % | 0.4 % | 0.4 % | 0.4 % |
| Other financial result | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % |
| Financial result | -0.3 % | -0.4 % | -0.3 % | -0.3 % | -0.4 % | -0.4 % | -0.4 % |
| Recurring pretax income from continuing operations | 1.8 % | 1.1 % | 1.3 % | 2.1 % | 2.4 % | 2.6 % | 2.7 % |
| Extraordinary income/loss | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % |
| Earnings before taxes | 1.8 % | 1.1 % | 1.3 % | 2.1 % | 2.4 % | 2.6 % | 2.7 % |
| Tax rate | -1.1 % | 31.4 % | 9.8 % | 33.0 % | 30.0 % | 30.0 % | 30.0 % |
| Net income from continuing operations | 1.8 % | 0.8 % | 1.2 % | 1.4 % | 1.7 % | 1.8 % | 1.9 % |
| Income from discontinued operations (net of tax) | 0.1 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % |
| Net income | 1.7 % | 0.7 % | 1.2 % | 1.4 % | 1.7 % | 1.8 % | 1.9 % |
| Minority interest | 0.2 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % |
| Net income (net of minority interest) | 1.6 % | 0.7 % | 1.2 % | 1.4 % | 1.7 % | 1.8 % | 1.9 % |
| Balance sheet (EUR m) | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011E | 2012E | 2013E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Intangible assets | 25.7 | 28.3 | 31.5 | 39.9 | 38.8 | 37.5 | 36.0 |
| Property, plant and equipment | 3.0 | 5.4 | 6.5 | 7.6 | 8.2 | 8.5 | 8.9 |
| Financial assets | 0.2 | 3.5 | 0.2 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 |
| FIXED ASSETS | 28.9 | 37.3 | 38.2 | 50.0 | 49.5 | 48.5 | 47.4 |
| Inventories | 8.6 | 10.1 | 12.6 | 14.5 | 16.4 | 17.3 | 18.0 |
| Accounts receivable | 39.3 | 44.2 | 47.2 | 56.4 | 66.3 | 70.0 | 73.2 |
| Other current assets | 1.5 | 6.3 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.1 |
| Liquid assets | 11.8 | 18.3 | 25.8 | 31.5 | 34.0 | 42.0 | 49.8 |
| Deferred taxes | 3.1 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.6 |
| Deferred charges and prepaid expenses | 7.4 | 2.1 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.4 |
| CURRENT ASSETS | 71.5 | 83.4 | 96.7 | 113.4 | 127.7 | 140.3 | 152.1 |
| TOTAL ASSETS | 100.4 | 120.7 | 134.9 | 163.5 | 177.2 | 188.8 | 199.5 |
| SHAREHOLDERS EQUITY | 36.3 | 38.9 | 43.9 | 50.2 | 57.5 | 65.2 | 72.6 |
| MINORITY INTEREST | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Long-term debt | 16.1 | 20.3 | 21.6 | 29.2 | 29.2 | 29.2 | 29.2 |
| Provisions for pensions and similar obligations | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Other provisions | 7.9 | 3.2 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 |
| Non-current liabilities | 24.1 | 23.6 | 26.0 | 33.6 | 33.6 | 33.6 | 33.6 |
| short-term liabilities to banks | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| Accounts payable | 27.5 | 39.3 | 47.9 | 62.5 | 68.8 | 72.7 | 75.9 |
| Advance payments received on orders | 0.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Other liabilities (incl. from lease and rental contracts) | 6.6 | 12.6 | 10.7 | 10.7 | 10.7 | 10.7 | 10.7 |
| Deferred taxes | 0.7 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Deferred income | 2.5 | 1.2 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.7 |
| Current liabilities | 40.0 | 58.1 | 65.0 | 79.6 | 86.0 | 89.8 | 93.1 |
| TOTAL LIABILITIES AND SHAREHOLDERS EQUITY | 100.4 | 120.7 | 134.9 | 163.5 | 177.2 | 188.8 | 199.5 |
| Balance sheet (common size) | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011E | 2012E | 2013E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Intangible assets | 25.6 % | 23.5 % | 23.4 % | 24.4 % | 21.9 % | 19.9 % | 18.1 % |
| Property, plant and equipment | 3.0 % | 4.5 % | 4.8 % | 4.7 % | 4.6 % | 4.5 % | 4.5 % |
| Financial assets | 0.2 % | 2.9 % | 0.1 % | 1.5 % | 1.4 % | 1.3 % | 1.2 % |
| FIXED ASSETS | 28.8 % | 30.9 % | 28.3 % | 30.6 % | 27.9 % | 25.7 % | 23.8 % |
| Inventories | 8.5 % | 8.4 % | 9.3 % | 8.9 % | 9.2 % | 9.1 % | 9.0 % |
| Accounts receivable | 39.1 % | 36.6 % | 35.0 % | 34.5 % | 37.4 % | 37.1 % | 36.7 % |
| Other current assets | 1.5 % | 5.2 % | 3.8 % | 3.1 % | 2.9 % | 2.7 % | 2.6 % |
| Liquid assets | 11.7 % | 15.1 % | 19.2 % | 19.2 % | 19.2 % | 22.2 % | 25.0 % |
| Deferred taxes | 3.1 % | 2.1 % | 1.9 % | 1.6 % | 1.4 % | 1.4 % | 1.3 % |
| Deferred charges and prepaid expenses | 7.3 % | 1.7 % | 2.5 % | 2.1 % | 1.9 % | 1.8 % | 1.7 % |
| CURRENT ASSETS | 71.2 % | 69.1 % | 71.7 % | 69.4 % | 72.1 % | 74.3 % | 76.2 % |
| TOTAL ASSETS | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % |
| SHAREHOLDERS EQUITY | 36.1 % | 32.3 % | 32.5 % | 30.7 % | 32.5 % | 34.5 % | 36.4 % |
| MINORITY INTEREST | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.1 % | 0.1 % | 0.1 % |
| Long-term debt | 16.0 % | 16.9 % | 16.0 % | 17.9 % | 16.5 % | 15.5 % | 14.7 % |
| Provisions for pensions and similar obligations | 0.2 % | 0.1 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 0.0 % |
| Other provisions | 7.9 % | 2.6 % | 3.2 % | 2.7 % | 2.5 % | 2.3 % | 2.2 % |
| Non-current liabilities | 24.0 % | 19.6 % | 19.3 % | 20.6 % | 19.0 % | 17.8 % | 16.9 % |
| short-term liabilities to banks | 1.9 % | 1.5 % | 0.5 % | 0.4 % | 0.4 % | 0.4 % | 0.4 % |
| Accounts payable | 27.4 % | 32.5 % | 35.5 % | 38.2 % | 38.8 % | 38.5 % | 38.1 % |
| Advance payments received on orders | 0.8 % | 1.6 % | 0.8 % | 0.7 % | 0.6 % | 0.6 % | 0.6 % |
| Other liabilities (incl. from lease and rental contracts) | 6.6 % | 10.4 % | 7.9 % | 6.5 % | 6.0 % | 5.7 % | 5.4 % |
| Deferred taxes | 0.7 % | 1.1 % | 1.5 % | 1.2 % | 1.1 % | 1.0 % | 1.0 % |
| Deferred income | 2.5 % | 1.0 % | 2.0 % | 1.6 % | 1.5 % | 1.4 % | 1.3 % |
| Current liabilities | 39.9 % | 48.2 % | 48.2 % | 48.7 % | 48.5 % | 47.6 % | 46.7 % |
| TOTAL LIABILITIES AND SHAREHOLDERS EQUITY | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % | 100.0 % |
| Cash flow statement (EUR m) | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011E | 2012E | 2013E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net profit/loss | 5.2 | 2.7 | 5.1 | 7.9 | 10.2 | 11.7 | 12.6 |
| Depreciation of fixed assets (incl. leases) | 1.4 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 3.6 |
| Amortisation of goodwill | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 1.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Amortisation of intangible assets | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 3.0 |
| Others | 0.0 | 6.4 | -0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Cash flow from operations before changes in w/c | 7.0 | 12.5 | 8.3 | 13.4 | 16.2 | 18.2 | 19.2 |
| Increase/decrease in inventory | 0.2 | -4.0 | 1.3 | -1.9 | -1.9 | -0.9 | -0.8 |
| Increase/decrease in accounts receivable | -3.5 | -4.8 | 1.1 | -9.2 | -9.9 | -3.7 | -3.2 |
| Increase/decrease in accounts payable | 1.3 | -0.1 | -1.1 | 14.6 | 6.3 | 3.9 | 3.3 |
| Increase/decrease in other working capital positions | 1.0 | 9.5 | 1.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Increase/decrease in working capital | -1.1 | 0.5 | 2.4 | 3.5 | -5.4 | -0.8 | -0.7 |
| Cash flow from operating activities | 6.0 | 13.1 | 10.7 | 16.9 | 10.8 | 17.5 | 18.5 |
| CAPEX | 4.2 | 3.2 | 4.7 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 |
| Payments for acquisitions | 4.7 | 3.0 | -1.4 | 9.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Financial investments | -0.1 | -3.0 | -0.6 | 2.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Income from asset disposals | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Cash flow from investing activities | -5.4 | -1.2 | -2.6 | -17.3 | -5.5 | -5.5 | -5.5 |
| Cash flow before financing | 0.6 | 11.9 | 8.0 | -0.4 | 5.3 | 4.0 | 5.2 |
| Increase/decrease in debt position | 4.8 | -4.4 | 0.3 | 7.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Purchase of own shares | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Capital measures | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Dividends paid | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.6 | 2.7 | 4.0 | 5.2 |
| Others | -0.8 | -0.1 | -1.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Effects of exchange rate changes on cash | -0.2 | -0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Cash flow from financing activities | 4.0 | -4.5 | -1.1 | 6.1 | -2.7 | -4.0 | -5.2 |
| Increase/decrease in liquid assets | 4.5 | 7.1 | 7.0 | 5.6 | 2.5 | n/a | n/a |
| Liquid assets at end of period | 11.8 | 18.9 | 25.8 | 31.5 | 34.0 | 42.0 | 49.8 |
Source: Company data, Hauck & Aufhäuser
| Regional split (EUR m) | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011E | 2012E | 2013E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Domestic | 0.0 | 322.2 | 386.1 | 510.0 | 566.0 | 598.0 | 624.0 |
| yoy change | n/a | n/a | 19.8 % | 32.1 % | 11.0 % | 5.7 % | 4.3 % |
| Rest of Europe | 0.0 | 0.0 | 36.4 | 39.3 | 39.1 | 41.0 | 43.7 |
| yoy change | n/a | n/a | n/a | 8.0 % | -0.5 % | 4.8 % | 6.7 % |
| NAFTA | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| yoy change | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Asia Pacific | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| yoy change | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Rest of world | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| yoy change | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| TTL | 0.0 | 322.2 | 422.5 | 549.3 | 605.1 | 639.0 | 667.7 |
| yoy change | n/a | n/a | 31.1 % | 30.0 % | 10.2 % | 5.6 % | 4.5 % |
| Key ratios (EUR m) | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011E | 2012E | 2013E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P&L growth analysis | |||||||
| Sales growth | 13.2 % | 21.3 % | 16.0 % | 30.0 % | 10.2 % | 5.6 % | 4.5 % |
| EBITDA growth | 38.7 % | 9.1 % | 18.4 % | 85.3 % | 20.3 % | 11.6 % | 4.5 % |
| EBIT growth | 44.7 % | -13.0 % | 29.8 % | 97.0 % | 24.8 % | 12.8 % | 5.5 % |
| EPS growth | 85.5 % | -42.5 % | 87.9 % | 55.7 % | 28.2 % | 15.5 % | 7.8 % |
| Efficiency | |||||||
| Total operating costs / sales | 97.6 % | 97.7 % | 97.8 % | 96.6 % | 96.3 % | 96.1 % | 96.1 % |
| Sales per employee | 233.3 | 229.3 | 237.7 | 281.7 | 292.3 | 297.2 | 301.8 |
| EBITDA per employee | 6.2 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 9.8 | 11.2 | 12.0 | 12.2 |
| Balance sheet analysis | |||||||
| Avg. working capital / sales | 6.2 % | 4.5 % | 2.8 % | 1.6 % | 1.7 % | 2.1 % | 2.1 % |
| Inventory turnover (sales/inventory) | 35.1 | 36.1 | 33.6 | 37.9 | 37.0 | 37.0 | 37.0 |
| Trade debtors in days of sales | 47.8 | 44.3 | 40.8 | 37.5 | 40.0 | 40.0 | 40.0 |
| A/P turnover [(A/P*365)/sales] | 33.5 | 39.3 | 41.3 | 41.5 | 41.5 | 41.5 | 41.5 |
| Cash conversion cycle (days) | 15.5 | 3.1 | -1.2 | -6.5 | -3.4 | -3.8 | -3.8 |
| Cash flow analysis | |||||||
| Free cash flow | 1.8 | 9.9 | 6.0 | 11.4 | 5.3 | 12.0 | 13.0 |
| Free cash flow/sales | 0.6 % | 2.7 % | 1.4 % | 2.1 % | 0.9 % | 1.9 % | 1.9 % |
| FCF / net profit | 38.0 % | 367.4 % | 118.4 % | 144.2 % | 52.1 % | 102.6 % | 103.5 % |
| FCF yield | 2.3 % | 12.7 % | 7.7 % | 14.8 % | 6.8 % | 15.6 % | 16.9 % |
| Capex / depn | 221.5 % | 4.0 % | 120.4 % | 141.9 % | 91.7 % | 84.6 % | 83.3 % |
| Capex / maintenance capex | 84.3 % | 105.9 % | 98.6 % | 97.6 % | 87.0 % | 80.0 % | 75.5 % |
| Capex / sales | 1.4 % | 0.0 % | 1.0 % | 1.4 % | 0.9 % | n/a | n/a |
| Security | |||||||
| Net debt | 6.2 | 3.9 | -3.5 | -1.5 | -4.0 | -12.0 | -19.8 |
| Net Debt/EBITDA | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Net debt / equity | 0.2 | 0.1 | -0.1 | 0.0 | -0.1 | -0.2 | -0.3 |
| Interest cover | 6.0 | 3.4 | 4.7 | 6.5 | 6.6 | 7.4 | 7.8 |
| Dividend payout ratio | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 30.7 % | 34.6 % | 39.5 % | 44.5 % | 49.4 % |
| Asset utilisation | |||||||
| Capital employed turnover | 4.8 | 5.7 | 6.0 | 6.5 | 6.6 | 6.4 | 6.2 |
| Operating assets turnover | 13.3 | 19.7 | 24.4 | 36.7 | 28.9 | 29.0 | 28.9 |
| Plant turnover | 99.4 | 67.4 | 64.7 | 72.0 | 73.5 | 74.9 | 74.8 |
| Inventory turnover (sales/inventory) | 35.1 | 36.1 | 33.6 | 37.9 | 37.0 | 37.0 | 37.0 |
| Returns | |||||||
| ROCE | 10.6 % | 8.5 % | 10.3 % | 17.7 % | 19.4 % | 20.1 % | 19.7 % |
| ROE | 12.9 % | 6.9 % | 11.5 % | 15.7 % | 17.5 % | 17.9 % | 17.3 % |
| Other | |||||||
| Interest paid / avg. debt | 6.6 % | 7.8 % | 6.6 % | 8.0 % | 8.7 % | 8.7 % | 8.7 % |
| No. employees (average) | 1287 | 1588 | 1777 | 1950 | 2070 | 2150 | 2213 |
| Number of shares | 10.4 | 10.4 | 10.4 | 10.4 | 10.4 | 10.4 | 10.4 |
| DPS | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.6 |
| EPS reported | 0.45 | 0.26 | 0.49 | 0.76 | 0.97 | 1.12 | 1.21 |
| Valuation ratios | |||||||
| P/BV | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| EV/sales | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.5 | 9.4 | 7.1 | 3.9 | 3.2 | 2.5 | 2.1 |
| EV/EBITA | 12.7 | 11.1 | 9.3 | 4.6 | 3.7 | 2.9 | 2.4 |
| EV/EBIT | 13.7 | 15.3 | 10.6 | 5.5 | 4.3 | 3.4 | 2.8 |
| EV/FCF | 47.3 | 8.3 | 12.3 | 6.6 | 13.8 | 5.4 | 4.4 |
| Dividend yield | 0.0 % | 0.0 % | 2.0 % | 3.5 % | 5.2 % | 6.7 % | 8.1 % |
Disclosure in respect of section 34b of the German Securities Trading Act (Wertpapierhandelsgesetz – WpHG)
| Company | Disclosure |
|---|---|
| CANCOM AG | 2 |
(1) Hauck & Aufhäuser or its affiliate(s) was Lead Manager or Co-Lead Manager over the previous 12 months of a public offering of this company.
(2) Hauck & Aufhäuser acts as Designated Sponsor for this company or offers Equity Advisory Services.
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Historical target price and rating changes for CANCOM AG in the last 12 months
Valuation basis/rating key
Buy: Sustainable upside potential of more than 10% within 12 months.
Hold 23.08 % 33.33 %
Sell: Sustainable downside potential of more than 10% within 12 months.
Hold: Upside/downside potential limited. No immediate catalyst visible.
Competent supervisory authority
Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht – BaFin – (Federal Financial Supervisory Authority), Graurheindorfer Straße 108, 53117 Bonn and Lurgiallee 12, 60439 Frankfurt am Main, Germany
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