AI Terminal

MODULE: AI_ANALYST
Interactive Q&A, Risk Assessment, Summarization
MODULE: DATA_EXTRACT
Excel Export, XBRL Parsing, Table Digitization
MODULE: PEER_COMP
Sector Benchmarking, Sentiment Analysis
SYSTEM ACCESS LOCKED
Authenticate / Register Log In

bpost SA/NV

Quarterly Report May 5, 2022

3922_rns_2022-05-05_ec5f2f85-cd73-41f0-852f-8f46b1f5c488.pdf

Quarterly Report

Open in Viewer

Opens in native device viewer

First quarter 2022 results Analyst call

Dirk Tirez, CEO Koen Aelterman, CFO a.i.

May 5th, 2022

Investor presentation

Interim financial report 1Q22

Financial Calendar

11.05.2022 Ordinary General Meeting of Shareholders

16.05.2022 18.05.2022 Ex-dividend date Payment date

04.08.2022 (17:45 CET) Quarterly results 2Q22

09.11.2022 (17:45 CET) Quarterly results 3Q22

More on bpostgroup.com/investors

Disclaimer

This presentation is based on information published by bpost group in its First Quarter 2022 Interim Financial Report, made available on May 5 th , 2022 at 5.45pm CET on bpostgroup.com/investors. This information forms regulated information as defined in the Royal Decree of November 14th , 2007. The information in this document may include forward-looking statements1 , which are based on current expectations and projections of management about future events. By their nature, forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties, assumptions and other factors because they relate to events and depend on circumstances that will occur in the future whether or not outside the control of the Company. Such factors may cause actual results, performance or developments to differ materially from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Accordingly, no assurance is given that such forward-looking statements will prove to have been correct. They speak only as at the date of the Presentation and the Company undertakes no obligation to update these forward-looking statements contained herein to reflect actual results, changes in assumptions or changes in factors affecting these statements. This material is not intended as and does not constitute an offer to sell any securities or a solicitation of any offer to purchase any securities.

1,3% 0,9%

2,6%

Negative evolution of macro-economic environment in 1Q22

Inflation has further accelerated in 1Q22 in Europe

8,3% 7,4% 8,5% 1

• Belgium's annual inflation rate climbed to 8.3% in March 2022 from 8.0% in the previous month, mainly driven by higher energy prices YoY (electricity +50%, gas +149%, fuel +31%)

1Q21 2Q21 3Q21 4Q21 1Q22

• The highest reading since March 1983

reading since March 1983
-------------------------- -- -- -- --

Consumer confidence significantly dropped in Europe

  • The consumer confidence indicator in Belgium fell from 1 to -16 in March 2022 amid the war in Ukraine and a consequent surge in prices.
  • The largest decline since the indicator was introduced in 1985

BE EU US BE EU BE NL EU

Decline in online retail sales

  • Overall decline in retail sales, further compounded by shift from online sales to physical channels as pandemic restrictions end
  • In Belgium, volume of online retail sales has decreased by -17% in March 2022 compared to the same month last year, vs. -4.5% decline in overall retail sales.
  • In US, March was the first month since the pandemic hit during which e-commerce sales declined YoY while in-store sales rose

Macro-economic

3 1Q22 Analyst Presentation

Start of the year in line with guidance. Results supported by strong mail revenues and growth at Radial NA, partly mitigating unfavorable macro-economic environment

Group operating
income
Belgium E-Logistics Eurasia E-Logistics N. Am.
€ 1,038.5m
up 1,8%
€ 75.1m
13.2% EBIT margin
€ 10.5m
7.3% EBIT margin
€ 15.2m
4.4% EBIT margin

Total operating income at
€ 568.9m (-2.7%)
positive mail price/mix impact
o
offsetting underlying volume

Total operating income at
€ 143.9m (-15.4%)
continued expansion of Radial
o
EU and Active Ants (+11.7%)
decline of -5.4%, and higher
revenues from 7th
MC
offset by
o
ongoing pressure on Asian
launched in 2021.
Group adjusted
EBIT
parcels volumes -14.8% against
o
high comps and reflecting
cross-border and Dyna
volumes
€ 93.0m
9.0% EBIT margin
decrease in consumer
spending and Amazon
insourcing

Lower OPEX (-14.5%) from
(i) lower volume at Cross-border
and Dyna, partly offset by (ii)

down -19.5% compared to prior year

  • Estimated € 5m support from one-off COVID communication
  • OPEX impacted by (i) 2 recent salary indexations and (ii) higher energy costs
  • inflation and (iii) e-com logistics' growth and expansion costs

E-Logistics N. Am.

  • Total operating income at € 343.5m (+21.8%, or +13.5% at constant exchange rate), reflecting Radial's growth (+24.3%) driven by customers
  • Adjusted EBIT almost doubling with improved margin, mainly thanks to Radial's contribution
€ million Reported Adjusted1
1Q21 1Q22 1Q21 1Q22 % ↑
Total operating income 1,019.9 1,038.5 1,019.9 1,038.5 1.8%
Operating expenses 842.7 878.1 842.7 878.1 4.2%
EBITDA 177.2 160.4 177.2 160.4 -9.5%
Depreciation & Amortization 64.9 70.4 61.7 67.4 9.3%
EBIT 112.3 90.0
1
115.5 93.0
1
-19.5%
Margin (%) 11.0% 8.7% 11.3% 9.0%
Financial result -2.5 -5.0 -2.5 -5.0 98.1%
Profit before tax 109.8 85.0 113.0 87.9 -22.2%
Income tax expense 29.2 23.7
1
29.9 24.4
1
-18.4%
Net profit 80.6 61.3 83.0 63.5 -23.5%
FCF 147.4 289.0
2
160.0 290.3
2
81.4%
Net Debt at March 31 388.3 281.6 388.3 281.6 -27.5%
Capex 19.6 26.5 19.6 26.5 34.7%
Average # FTEs and interims 37,602 37,819 37,602 37,819 0.6%

Key financials 1Q22

Amortization and impairments of intangibles recognized during PPA are adjusted, leading to increase in EBIT (€ +2.9m) and income tax (€ +0.7m)

1

2 Adjusted FCF excludes the cash Radial receives on behalf of its customers for performing billing services

Mail revenue supported by price increase, retail and VAS counterbalance current pressure on parcels

Belgium external operating income, € million

Domestic Mail

Operating income up € +4.5m:

  • € -14.6m volume (-5.4% underlying volume decline against -7.8% in 1Q21)
  • € +18.3m from price and mix impact
  • € +0.9m working day impact

In Transactional Mail:

  • Admin mail supported by still lasting COVID-19 communication in 1Q22 (est. about € 5m)
  • No change in known structural trends of continued e-substitution

Parcels Belgium

Total Parcels Belgium revenue down € -14.3m (-11.9%):

  • Improved price/mix of +3.0%
  • Parcels volume decline of -14.8% against high comps (+54.1% in 1Q21) and reflecting drop in consumer confidence and inflation impacts on consumer spending.

Underlying Parcels volume decline of -8.1% excl. Amazon's insourcing (-46.1%).

Proximity and convenience retail network

Revenue up € +5.1m (+7.9%) mainly from new Management Contract, excl. deconsolidation impact of Ubiway2

Value added services

3 4

Higher revenues from fines solution

2

1Q22 Analyst Presentation

EBIT driven by lower parcel volumes and inflationary impacts on payroll and energy costs

Belgium 1Q21 1Q22 % ↑ External operating income 567.3 556.6 -1.9% Transactional 190.2 194.7 2.4% Advertising 47.6 48.0 0.8% Press 86.0 85.7 -0.4% Parcels Belgium 120.3 106.0 -11.9% Proximity and convenience retail network 95.0 90.8 -4.4% Value added services 28.2 31.3 11.1% Intersegment operating income 17.3 12.3 -28.6% Total operating income 584.6 568.9 -2.7% Operating expenses 471.2 472.4 0.3% EBITDA 113.4 96.5 -14.9% Depreciation & Amortization 22.4 21.6 -3.5% Reported EBIT 91.1 74.9 -17.7% Margin (%) 15.6% 13.2% Adjusted EBIT 91.5 75.1 -17.9% Margin (%) 15.6% 13.2% Additional KPIs Underlying Mail volume trend -7.8% -5.4% Transactional -9.6% -5.8% Advertising -5.4% -2.3% Press -1.0% -7.1%

Parcels B2X volume trend 54.1% -14.8%

7

€ million

Key takeaways 1Q22

• Total operating income down € -15.7m (-2.7%)

Lower intersegment income (€ -4.9m or -28.6%) reflecting lower Cross-border volumes handled in the network

  • Operating expenses (incl. adjusted D&A) remained nearly stable (€ -0.7m or +0.1%) despite inflationary pressure, mainly driven by:
    • ‐ lower fleet and subcontractor costs and less FTEs from lower parcels volumes
    • ‐ lower material costs in line with deconsolidation of Ubiway Retail
    • ‐ higher payroll cost per FTE (2 recent salary indexations of +2% and change in Night shift regulation) and energy costs.

1Q22 – Belgium

Growth in Radial and Active Ants offset by Dynagroup while Asian volumes remain under pressure following new VAT regulation 1Q22 – E-Log. Eurasia

E-Logistics Eurasia external operating income, € million

E-commerce logistics

Revenue down € -3.2m (-4.6%):

  • Radial Europe and Active Ants revenue growth of +11.7% mainly from new customer onboardings
  • Offset by decline in revenue at DynaLogic due to lower consumer confidence and at DynaFix/Sure due to shortage of electronic spare parts and less devices to be repaired

Cross-border

Revenue down € -21.6m (-22.7%) mainly driven by lower Asian volumes still not recovering from the new VAT regulation (July '21) and impacted by recent COVID lockdowns in China

Asia cross-border

Asian cross-border sales of 1Q22:

• c. -50% below 1Q21 - 2Q21 and

2

• +5% above 4Q21 level

EBIT impacted by lower cross-border and personalized logistics volumes, higher payroll costs

€ million

E-Logistics Eurasia 1Q21 1Q22 % ↑
External operating income 163.5 138.7 -15.2%
E-commerce logistics 68.4 65.2 -4.6%
Cross-border 95.1 73.5 -22.7%
Intersegment operating income 6.6 5.2 -21.5%
Total operating income 170.1 143.9 -15.4%
Operating expenses 149.0 127.4 -14.5%
EBITDA 21.1 16.5 -21.9%
Depreciation & Amortization 5.4 6.7 25.6%
Reported EBIT 15.7 9.7 -38.0%
Margin (%) 9.3% 6.8%
Adjusted EBIT 16.5 10.5 -36.4%
Margin (%) 9.7% 7.3%

Key takeaways 1Q22

  • Total operating income down € -26.2m (-15.4%)
  • Operating expenses (incl. adjusted D&A) decreased by € +20.2m (-13.1%), mainly explained by:
    • ‐ lower transport costs and lower intersegment opex charged by Belgium from lower Asian volumes
    • ‐ lower material costs, lower interims and transport costs in line with lower volumes at Dyna; partially offset by
    • ‐ higher payroll costs from inflation and recent sites openings, in line with expansion and strategic development initiatives

1Q22 – E-Log. Eurasia

1Q22 – E-Log. N. Am.

Continued strong revenue development driven by Radial's new customers launched in 2021

E-Logistics N. America external operating income, € million

E-commerce logistics

YoY increase of +30.0% (+21.2% at constant exchange rate).

Revenue increase driven by Radial from new customers contribution, launched in 2021 and accelerating as from June onwards

Landmark US and Apple Express recorded continued volume growth from existing customers and new customers won in 2021

Radial NA revenues of 1Q22:

  • +24% vs. 1Q21,
  • +43% vs. 1Q20 and
  • +64% against 1Q19, from structural e-commerce logistics growth and expansion plan

Almost doubled EBIT driven by strong performance across the board

€ million

E-Logistics North America 1Q21 1Q22 % ↑
External operating income 281.1 342.4 21.8%
E-commerce logistics 263.5 342.4 30.0%
International mail 17.7 0.0 -
Intersegment operating income 0.9 1.1 15.2%
Total operating income 282.1 343.5 21.8%
Operating expenses 256.7 306.6 19.4%
EBITDA 25.4 36.9 45.2%
Depreciation & Amortization 19.2 23.8 23.8%
Reported EBIT 6.2 13.1 111.6%
Margin (%) 2.2% 3.8%
Adjusted EBIT 8.2 15.2 84.0%
Margin (%) 2.9% 4.4%
Additional KPIs, adjusted
Radial North America revenue, \$m 247.1 307.3 24.3%
Radial North America EBITDA, \$m 17.4 26.8 53.4%
Radial North America EBIT, \$m 0.0 6.1 -

Key takeaways 1Q22

  • Total operating income up € +61.4m or +21.8% (+13.5% at constant exchange rate).
  • Operating expenses (incl. adjusted D&A) increased by € -54.5m (+19.9%, or +11.8% excl. FX), resulting from:
    • ‐ higher variable opex in line with revenue development, including labor costs from continued wage rate pressure in fulfilment, mitigated by productivity gains
    • ‐ higher costs from new site openings
  • Adjusted EBIT up € +6.9m, almost doubling to € 15.2m with improved margin of 4.4%

Corporate EBIT decline driven by lower building sales

€ million

Corporate 1Q21 1Q22 % ↑
External operating income 7.9 0.8 -90.1%
Intersegment operating income 102.6 100.2 -2.3%
Total operating income 110.6 101.0 -8.6%
Operating expenses 93.3 90.5 -3.0%
EBITDA 17.3 10.5 -39.1%
Depreciation & Amortization 17.9 18.3 1.8%
Reported EBIT -0.6 -7.7
Margin (%) -0.6% -7.7%
Adjusted EBIT -0.6 -7.7
Margin (%) -0.6% -7.7%

Key takeaways 1Q22

  • External revenues lower than last year by €-7.1m, from lower building sales
  • Decrease in operating expenses (incl. D&A) by -2.2%, driven by overhead payroll decrease (-3.7% FTEs and interims) partially offset by salary indexations, IT and consultancy costs to accelerate the transformation of bpostgroup. Reflected in lower intersegment income.
  • Adjusted EBIT down € -7.1m at € -7.7m

Stable Cash Flow from Operating activities supported by active portfolio management

€ million ‐ Adjusted Reported

1Q21 1Q22 Delta
Cash flow from operating activities before Δ in WC and provisions 165.1 177.9 12.8
Change in working capital and provisions 4.6 -4.4 -8.9
Cash flow from operating activities 169.7 173.5 3.9
Cash flow from investing activities -9.7 116.7 126.4
Free cash flow 160.0 290.3 130.3
Cash flow from Financing activities -193.5 -31.5 162.0
Net cash movement -33.5 258.8 292.3
Capex 19.6 26.5 6.8

Adjusted vs. Reported Cash Flow Statement in appendix

CF from operating activities

  • Lower EBITDA (€-16.8m) offset by favorable settlement of corporate income taxes in 1Q22 (€ +20.5m) 1
  • € -8.9m change in working capital & provisions mainly driven by: 2
    • Lower supplier balances and phasing of 2021 bonuses payment to employees to alleviate pressure on purchasing power (usually paid in 2Q).
    • Partially offset by the unwinding in 1Q21 of extended payment terms with some suppliers as initiated at the beginning of the pandemic

CF from investing activities 3

Net improvement results from the sale of bpost bank and Ubiway Retail (€+141.8m, out of which € 25.0m from bpost bank' shareholder loan repayment), more than offsetting lower proceeds from building sales (€-8.6m) and higher capex

Capex at € 26.5m increased by € 6.8m and was mainly spent on e-commerce logistics expansion of Radial (US/EU) and Active Ants

CF from financing activities

Mainly driven by repayment of outstanding commercial paper last year (€ -165.7m in 1Q21)

1Q22

Despite a first quarter in line with expectations, recent market disruptions bring potential risk of up to € 40m to the guidance

Feb 24 guidance Current perspective
Q1 financial performance was in line with the full year 2022 EBIT
guidance of € 280-310m
issued on February 24, 2022.
However, recent disruptions in the market bring uncertainty.
Inflation
Feb. '22 inflation forecast:
+2% salary indexations
impacting bpost in Feb., April
and Dec.
May '22 inflation forecast:

+2% salary indexations in Feb.,
April, June & December
There could be a potential downside risk of up to € 40m to the
guidance in the remaining part of the year related to:
Energy Decreasing energy prices

following declining trend
between Jan '22 & Feb '22

Further increase in energy
prices compared to Feb '22
inflation in Belgium and internationally
uncertain consumer behavior linked to inflation impact on

demand and post-pandemic parcel volume normalization
No significant drop in consumer

confidence
Post-COVID normalization of
Strong decline in consumer

confidence across Europe
e-com market decline due to

lower consumer spending and
Management is taking actions with increased sales efforts, price
increases where appropriate and cost reductions
e-com
market
growth rates on e-com volumes
expected, with high single digit
to low double-digit market
growth rates
shift to physical channels
resulting in negative growth
across markets and lower Same
Store Sales
The above reflects the current perspective on overall market
conditions. An element of uncertainty remains, especially with
regards to 4Q22 peak
evolution Flat parcels volume growth
with

loss of ~40% of Amazon
volumes foreseen to be
compensated by market growth
and onboarding of new
customers
Negative parcel growth
despite

successful onboarding of new
customers, driven by lower
volumes across current
customers and faster Amazon
insourcing at ~60%

Inflationary pressure on Belgian payroll costs: additional indexations in June and Dec. '22 vs guidance with € ~17m impact Outlook FY22

Belgian salary indexations

  • Under the Belgian social security system, salaries are automatically indexed to inflation; leading all Belgian employers to face automatic and mandatory pay rises.
  • For bpost, out of CLA scope, public wages and social benefits are adjusted to the higher costs of living with a +2% indexation two months after every time the Smoothed Health Index reaches the Salary indexation (Pivot Index) threshold
  • Based on last monthly forecast1 , next indexations could occur in June '22 and December '22, adding to the ones of November '21, February '22 and April '22

Should inflation further accelerate, anticipated indexations could occur earlier in the year.

1 Monthly forecast of the Federal Planning Bureau publicly available at https://www.plan.be/databases/17-en-consumer_price_index_inflation_forecasts

Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22 Apr-22 Jul-22 Oct-22 Actuals and latest forecast Forecast March Forecast February Forecast January Salary indexation threshold Federal Planning Bureau Inflation forecasts Forecast April

Management is taking actions at all levels to face and mitigate unfavorable impacts on EBIT

Belgium

  • Parcels commercial plan to counter volume loss
  • Workforce planning to take out costs in function of volume, supported by natural attrition and mobility initiatives
  • Price increases to reflect inflationary pressures
  • Operating and discretionary cost initiatives

E-Logistics Eurasia

  • Increased sales efforts at Dynalogic and Cross-border (e.g., new lanes)
  • Operational improvements, e.g., software/route optimization and productivity improvements
  • Cost containment measures such as hiring delays and discretionary spending reduction

E-Logistics North America

  • Additional productivity actions in Fulfilment activities
  • Expense savings/deferrals in IT and corporate units

Group

• In-depth review of project portfolio, without jeopardizing transformation timing

Outlook FY22

• Diligent execution of overhead FTE reduction

Regardless of the macro-economic shocks management continues to execute on 2022 priorities

Improve operational efficiency
within Belgian organization and
initiate transformation into long
term sustainable business
Build
E-Logistics Eurasia
Accelerate growth of
E-Logistics North America
Reduce overhead and
headquarters costs
Move from a product delivery to
a customer centric organization
Continue to embed ESG in our
business strategy to strengthen
our position as a leading
sustainable and socially
responsible organization

Additional info

Adjusted vs. reported Cash Flow Statement

€ million Adjusted Reported
1Q21 1Q22 Delta 1Q21 1Q22 Delta
Cash flow from operating activities before Δ in WC and provisions 165.1 177.9 12.8 165.1 177.9 12.8
Change in working capital and provisions 4.6 -4.4 -8.9 -8.0 -5.6 2.4
Cash flow from operating activities 169.7 173.5 3.9 157.1 172.3 15.2
Cash flow from investing activities -9.7 116.7 126.4 -9.7 116.7 126.4
Free cash flow 160.0 290.3 130.3 147.4 289.0 141.6
Cash flow from Financing activities -193.5 -31.5 162.0 -193.5 -31.5 162.0
Net cash movement -33.5 258.8 292.3 -46.1 257.5 303.6
Capex 19.6 26.5 6.8 19.6 26.5 6.8

Adjustments

Change in working capital:

Cash flow related to collected proceeds due to Radial's clients was € 11.3m higher (€ 1.2m outflow in 1Q22 against outflow of € 12.6m in 1Q21, in line with the remittance calendar

1

1Q22

Balance Sheet

€ million

Assets Dec 31, 2021 Mar 31, 2022 Equity and Liabilities Dec 31, 2021 Mar 31, 2022
PPE 1,263.5 1,326.2 Total equity 885.3 962.6
Intangible assets 797.0 801.7 Interest-bearing loans & borrowings 1,377.7 1,448.2
Investments in associates and joint ventures 0.0 0.0 Employee benefits 298.2 298.0
Other assets 53.1 39.0 Trade & other payables 1,504.3 1,333.0
Trade & other receivables 936.3 747.3 Provisions 25.8 25.3
Inventories 20.7 20.5 Derivative instruments 0.3 0.2
Cash & cash equivalents 907.5 1,166.7 Other liabilities 10.1 35.9
Assets held for sale 163.3 1.8 Liabilites held for sale 39.7 0.0
Total Assets 4,141.3 4,103.3 Total Equity and Liabilities 4,141.3 4,103.3

€ million

Main balance sheet movements

Property, plant and equipment increased as the capital expenditure and the increase in the right-of-use assets and leases outpaced the depreciation.

Trade and other receivables decreased driven by the settlement of the SGEI for the delivery of newspapers and periodicals for 2021 and the peak sales of year-end 2021.

Equity increased mainly explained by the realized profit and the exchange differences on translation of foreign operations.

Cash & cash equivalents increased following the sale of bpost bank and the collection of the SGEI. Interests-bearings loans and borrowings increased mainly due to higher lease liabilities.

The decrease of trade & other payables was mainly due to the decrease of social and trade payables, partially offset by the advance payment received for the SGEI compensation for the delivery of newspapers and periodicals. The decrease of the trade payables was mainly a phasing element given the peak season at year-end.

The assets held for sale and liabilities held for sale should be reviewed together, the net decrease is explained by sale of bpost bank and Ubiway Retail in 1Q22 (transaction prices to be finalized).

Financing Structure & Liquidity

€ million
Available Liquidity Dec 31, 2021 Mar 31, 2022
Cash & cash equivalents 907.5 1,166.7
Cash in network 149.9 152.9
Transit accounts 44.9 49.9
Cash payment transactions under execution -28.4 (12.2)
Bank current accounts 578.6 775.3
Short-term deposits 162.6 200.9
Undrawn revolving credit facilities 375.0 375.0
Syndicated facility - 10/2024 300.0 300.0
Bilateral facility - 06/2025 75.0 75.0
Total Available Liquidity 1,282.5 1,541.7
€ million
External Funding Dec 31, 2021 Mar 31, 2022
Long-term
Long-term bond1
(1.25% - 07/2026)
650.0 650.0
Bank loans 163.3 166.7
Amortizing Loan (€ 100m) ‐ 12/2022 0.0 0.0
Term Loan (\$ 185m) - 07/2023 163.3 166.7
Short-term
Bank loans: Amortizing Loan (€ 100m) ‐ 12/2022 9.1 9.1
Commercial Paper 0.0 0.0
Total External Funding 822.4 825.7

Liquidity: Cash & Committed credit lines

Total available liquidity on March 31, 2022 consisted out of € 1,167m cash & cash equivalents of which € 976.2m is readily available on bank current accounts and as short-term deposits.

In addition, bpost group has 2 undrawn revolving credit facilities for a total amount of € 375.0m.

External Funding & Debt Amortization (excl. IFRS16 lease liabilities)

Out of € 825.7m external funding on balance sheet on March 31, 2022:

‐ € 9.1m needs to be repaid in 4Q22 (i.e. current portion of the amortizing loan)

1 € 650m long-term bond with a carrying amount of € 645.1m, the difference being the re-offer price and issuance fees.

Key contact

Antoine Lebecq Head of Investor Relations

Email: [email protected] Direct: +32 (0) 2 276 29 85 Mobile: +32 (0) 471 81 24 77 Address: bpost group, Centre Monnaie, 1000 Brussels, Belgium

Talk to a Data Expert

Have a question? We'll get back to you promptly.