Investor Presentation • Dec 12, 2023
Investor Presentation
Open in ViewerOpens in native device viewer
Strongly committed team, ready to deliver Superior Shareholder Value
Sustainable Banking, proudly supporting the Italian Economy
12 December 2023



This presentation has been prepared by Banco BPM ("Banco BPM") and includes certain forward looking statements, projections, objectives and estimates reflecting the current views of the management of the Bank with respect to future events.
Forward-looking statements are statements that are not historical facts. These statements include financial projections and estimates and their underlying assumptions, statements regarding plans, objectives and expectations with respect to future operations, products and services, and statements regarding future performance. Forward-looking statements are generally identified by the words "expects", "anticipates", "believes", "intends", "estimates" and similar expressions. By their nature, forward-looking statements involve a number of risks, uncertainties and assumptions which could cause actual results or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements and information were developed from scenarios based on a number of economic assumptions for a given competitive and regulatory environment.
Banco BPM does not undertake any obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as may be required by applicable law. You should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date of this presentation. All subsequent written and oral forward-looking statements attributable to Banco BPM or persons acting on its behalf are expressly qualified in their entirety by this disclaimer.
The information contained herein has not been independently verified. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is or will be given by Banco BPM, its subsidiaries or any of their respective representative, directors, officers, employees or advisers or any other person as to the accuracy, completeness or fairness of the information contained in this presentation and no responsibility or liability whatsoever is accepted by the same for the accuracy or sufficiency thereof or for any errors, omissions or misstatements negligent or otherwise relating there to.
The distribution of this presentation in other jurisdictions may be restricted by law or regulation. Accordingly, persons who come into possession of this document should inform themselves of, and observe, these restrictions. To the fullest extent permitted by applicable law, Banco BPM and its subsidiaries disclaim any responsibility or liability for the violation of such restrictions by any person.
This presentation does not constitute a public offer under any applicable legislation or an offer or invitation to subscribe for, underwrite or otherwise acquire, any securities of Banco BPM or an advice or recommendation with respect to such securities. This presentation and the information contained herein does not constitute an offer of securities in the United States or to any U.S. person (as defined in Regulation S under the U.S. Securities Act of 1933 (the "Securities Act"), as amended), Canada, Australia, Japan or any other jurisdiction where such offer is unlawful.
For the purposes of this notice, "presentation" means this document, any oral presentation, any question and answer session and any written or oral material discussed following the distribution of this document. By participating to this presentation and accepting a copy of this presentation, you agree to be bound by the foregoing limitations regarding the information disclosed in this presentation.






SUSTAINABILITY FULLY INTEGRATED THROUGHOUT THE PLAN





Data as of 30/09/2023.
Notes: 1. Source: Bank of Italy. For Banco BPM, the figures include the branches of the Parent Bank plus 53 private branches of Banca Aletti as well as 26 other Group outlets. 2. Closing of the "Vera" and "CAA" transactions expected by year end. 3. Closing expected in Q1 2024.



Sources: Infostat, Bank of Italy; IHS; ISTAT

Data as of 30/09/2023.
Notes: 1. For Banco BPM, the branches include the core retail franchise of the Parent Bank plus 53 private banking branches of Banca Aletti as well as 26 other Group outlets. Source: Studies and Research processing on Bank of Italy Supervisory Reports. 2. Calculated including total # of branches at Group level.

HIGHER REVENUE CONTRIBUTION THANKS TO STRENGTHENED OWNERSHIP STRATEGY FOR KEY BUSINESSES

Notes: 1. New Bancassurance set-up fully operational starting from Jan. 2024, post "Vera" and "CAA" transactions to be closed by year-end. 2. JV with FSI and Iccrea Banca, with closing expected in Q1 2024.




Notes: 1. 2017 P&L data not fully comparable, due to different accounting standard and reclassification schemes. 2. Calculated as Net Profit from P&L (year x) / Tangible Shareholders' Equity (end-of-period, excluding FY Net Profit, AT1 instruments and Intangible assets net of fiscal effect). 3. Post dividend suspension.




11




Notes: 1. Omnichannel Sales: significantly digital channels-contributed branch sales (e.g., on-line price quotation and product selection/request) and Remote Sales (Self or Remotely-assisted full digital Sales). 2. Oil & Gas, Power generation, Cement, Automotive and Coal. 3. New lending to Corporate and Enterprises belonging to green/low transition risk sectors and green lending products to Corporate and Enterprises (excluding Small Business & Institutional segments). 4. Issued under the GS&S Bonds Framework.







Average Euribor 3M NII / Avg. Total assets
Top Italian Banks by assets1

• Today's point of departure is stronger than ever:
Italy2 – Probability of default (weighted average) - Corporate & SMEs Indexed numbers (1Q 2015= 100)

• In recent years, Italian banks adopted new credit management standards guided by a strict regulatory framework and a rigorous supervisory approach
Top Italian Banks by assets3 - Impact of systemic charges on Net Income


Notes: 1. Banks included in the sample: Unicredit, Intesa Sanpaolo, MPS, Banco Popolare, BPER, BNL, BPM (year 2011); Unicredit, Intesa Sanpaolo, BBPM, BPER, MPS, Crédit Agricole Italia, Credem (1H 2023). 2. Italian Banking System, Corporate as defined in Capital Requirements Regulation, including Businesses with >€1m exposure. 3. Banks included in the sample: Unicredit, Intesa Sanpaolo, BBPM, BPER, Banca Popolare di Sondrio, Credem
Sources: Bank of Italy; EBA Risk Dashboard; Top Italian Banks financial reports 2021, 1H 2023.


Notes: 1. Calculated as Net Profit from P&L (year x) / Tangible Shareholders' Equity (end-of-period, excluding FY Net Profit, AT1 instruments and Intangible assets net of fiscal effect). 2. Proforma post Basel IV net impact (fully loaded) estimated in 2021. 3. Market cap as of 11/12/2023. 16

CAGR 9M 2023-26



56% 54% 48% <50%
<50% 2023G factoring renewal of National Labour Contract
2021 2022 9M 2023 2026



2022 data are restated for the application of IFRS 17 to subsidiary and associated insurance companies.
Notes: 1. Including net commissions and fees, income from consolidated Life insurance business, income from associates; 2. Calculated as Net Profit from P&L (year x) / Tangible Shareholders' Equity (end-of-period, excluding FY Net Profit, AT1 instruments and Intangible assets net of fiscal effect). 3. Annualized.
NII and Cost headwinds over-compensated by Fees and Associates




2023E-2026, €bn




• Largely (>90%) from key product factories:
Contribution to Revenues
2023E-2026, €bn
+ + Bancass. P&C + PayCo

2023E-2026, €bn
Including a new headcount reduction plan ~2.6 +0.16 -0.07 -0.09 +0.08 ~2.7 Inflation and impact from new National Labour Contract Network Streamlining & Digitalization Lean operating machine upgrade and benefits from AI 2023E 2026 • Est. additional ~€100m of increased cost of labor following introduction of new National Labour Contract • Inflation on non-HR costs • Phase-out of 400+ cash desks reskilling resources to commercial activities • Completion of network rationalization targeting ~1,250 branches by 2026 • Streamlining IT • Operations automation • Real Estate assets optimization • Zero-based cost design approach • 20% investments increase to enable Acceleration Plan • Leverage Analytics / Machine Learning / Gen AI to transform the bank and to improve productivity Impact of Acceleration Program initiatives o/w: €50m 2023 impact from renewal of National Labour Contract
specifically for 2024-26 (~1,600 exits, ~800 new young hires)
22

Cum. 2024-26 vs. Cum. 2021-23, €m






Capital position not affected by increased shareholder remuneration
CET1 RATIO EXPECTED EVOLUTION


25 Notes: 1. Including regulatory headwinds (adoption of EBA guidelines) and Danish compromise. 2. Participations, delta FVOCID reserves, DTA and other effects. 3. Pro-forma already including SREP 2024 capital requirements.









| E | • Supporting our clients in their transition path through advisory and commercial offering, paving the way for a Net Zero Strategy • Strengthening the management & monitoring of Climate & Environmental Risk • Keep on reducing our own environmental impact |
>€10bn Green & Low Transition risk new lending (avg. P.Y. 2024-26) 1 |
CARBON NEUTRAL BY 2024 For Net Scope 1&2 emissions2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | • Further enhancing our People strategy, Generational change and Women empowerment • Strengthening our leadership position as third sector lender • Confirming as a top Community bank with strong impact on our local communities (school and education-driven) |
+20% ~€200m Women in New loans to managerial third sector positions YE 2026 (2026) vs. YE 2023 |
~€5m Donations & contributions for "E" and "S" projects (avg. P.Y. 2024-26) |
| G | • Short-term and Long-term incentive plans for managers & employees confirmed aligned with ESG targets • Supporting our Digital transformation with a strong Privacy & Cybersecurity management • Further enhancement of ESG risk measurement framework, in coherence with the evolution of external regulation and risks materiality |
~15% Share of hirings of Cybersecurity specialists on total hirings of Digital & IT professionals (2024-26) |
#200K ESG training hours to employees in 2026 |

Notes: 1. New lending to Corporate and Enterprises belonging to green/low transition risk sectors (as defined at YE 2023) and green lending products to Corporate and Enterprise segments (excluding small business & institutional segments). 2. Carbon Neutrality for Net Scope 1&2 Market-based emissions.


Notes: 1. Market share calculated on outstanding loans to SMEs and Corporates. 2. 2020 data. Southern Ireland not included due to a fiscal regime not comparable. 3. 2021 data. 4. Customer loyalty survey conducted by external research provider for BBPM on 22 Provinces where BBPM is located. Data refers to the top 7 banks in Italy by total assets (2022).
Sources: Istat, Eurostat


BBPM distinctive identity in the midcorporate market…

Market Share (internal estimate)

Supply Chain Finance: specialists, products, digital platform, growth via M&A of specific target (including fintech)
Originate to Share as enabler of growth in Structure Finance Business
Specific focus also on growth in Large Corporate value-added business (i.e. capital markets / bond issuances) leveraging BBPM investment grade rating as enabler


Notes: 1. Market share calculated on deal value, based on disclosed data (2022). 2. Market shares relative to Corporate and SMEs. 3. Market share calculated on deal value, based on disclosed data of transactions between €10m and €250m (11M 2023). 4. M/L-term loans (Sec. and Unsec.), incl. revolving. 5. Include growth on net commissions and net financial result. 6. Data refers to corporate clients, share of wallet calculated on drawn credit lines. Sources: Assifact; Mergermarket; Bank of Italy.



Notes: 1. "High" and "Very High" transition risk sectors (as defined at YE 2023). 2. New lending to Corporates and Enterprises belonging to green/low transition risk sectors (as defined at YE 2023) and green lending products to Corporate and Enterprise segments (excluding small business & institutional segments). 3. Oil & Gas, Power generation, Cement, Automotive and Coal.
CIB SME

Sources: Bank of Italy; Peers Annual Reports.

Notes: 1. Conservatively ~2.5p.p. below Prometeia estimates. 2. Excluding Cap. Protected Certificates.




Broaden leadership in SMEs & Corporate
Reinforce Wealth Management & Life Insurance
Capture value from P&C Insurance and Payments' deals Benefit from further omnichannel reinforcement
Enhance tech innovation, lean banking, Cybersec Further consolidate a "future-proof" balance sheet
Empower People and Communities
Closing by 1Q 2024 Closing by 2023

• Additional value from last 12 months' deals comes from both an increase in fees as well as profit as shareholders



Delta fees 2023-26 from Payments

Market growth: 85-90% of total growth Avg. GDP + Inflation ~3% + 5 p.p. '23-'26 Digital transactions penetration ~+€30m of fees ~+€20m of income from associate
| Product penetration initiatives |
Cross-sell / Up-sell initiatives | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| • | Marketing and Commercial jointly dedicated investments |
• | Up-sell: Focus on Smart POS, premium cards for business segment and digital/mobile payments |
| • | Additional salesforce to develop LAKA/ Corp. clients |
• | Cross-sell: Focus on pushing VAS enabled by the new platform (i.e., Soft Pos; |
| • | Personalized offers on high potential customer clusters |
other specific SME, small and micro businesses services) |
|
| • | Leverage on relaunched BBPM's customer base growth ambition |
||
Full deployment within 1 year from closing

income from associate


Notes: 1. Non-Motor excl. Credit Protection; Source: Global Data. 2. Source ANIA.
41


Notes: 1. Retail clients (Individuals + SB). 2. All segments, TRX = transaction. 3. Fully Remote sales = Self, Webank, Remote and Digital Branch. 4. Digital Branch is focused on commercial and advisory activities while offering assistance services.

sales / total sales2
• Completion of Marketing Automation platform (es. real-time engagement of clients)

EXAMPLES OF AI/GENERATIVE AI USE CASES

• Co-piloting of financial advisory • Digital Branch in/outbound flow optimizer
Clients with at least 1 purchase in last 12 months (%)
(%) Remote and off-premise financial advisory services (%)
• Personalization and funnel optimization of digital marketing contents

Fully remote1
Notes: 1. Fully Remote sales = Self, Webank, Remote and Digital Branch; Individuals + SB. 2. Excluding Current Accounts. 3. Webank clients and clients without transactions in branch in the last 12 months. 4. Internal and external (outsourced) Customer Center frontline FTE's (annual average).




innovative, efficient & secure IT


Pushing innovation throughout the Group leveraging on Advanced Analytics, Machine Learning & Generative AI with a Group value-driven strategy



| ICT | • Vendor & contract optimization • Technical improvements e.g., consumption reductions, outdated hardware decommission, … |
15 % Cash out savings vs. ICT 2023 baseline |
|---|---|---|
| Operations | • Back-office automation with Robotic Process Automation (RPA), AI & Generative AI • Simplification / revision of internal processes and internal procedures to enable the operating transformation |
20 % Ops productivity increase |
| Real Estate | • Reduction of non-instrumental assets and working spaces optimization • ~20% reduction in 2026 vs. 2022 in power consumptions (Scope 1&2) |
Generating 50 €230M RWA % optimization Non-instrumental Real Estate assets disposal |
| Other G&A1 | • Zero-based cost budgeting and demand management applied also on "run" expenditures • Cost-optimization initiatives on selected cost items (e.g., switch to video surveillance, reducing internal printing, optimizing info-providers, …) • Organizational de-layering |
5 % Other G&A1 reduction vs. '23 baseline |
cross-category gross savings identified (2026 vs. 2023)
~€90m
Carbon neutral
for Net Scope 1 & 2 emissions by 2024
Already 100% of electric energy from renewable sources maintained throughout the Plan
48


49
• Credit risk data warehouse: managerial and risk data
integration to support decision-making


Notes: 1. Includes Cancellations, Write-offs, Recoveries, Cure & Other. 2022 data is adjusted to exclude an extraordinary single name disposal. 2. Annualized.
AMBITIONS


Notes: 1. Net of maturities. 2. Eligible Taxonomy-aligned categories are: Energy, Construction and Real Estate activities and Manufacture of basic 51 chemical. 3. Issued under the GS&S Bonds Framework. 4. Data referred to the Parent Company (excl. Commercial Bonds, GACS, financial assets at fair value, equity securities).





| CERTIFIED |
|---|
| Project Horizon | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Schools, students and community initiatives |
Financial education and ESG engagement |
Volunteering initiatives | Contributions and donations |
Social lending |
| • Renewal of BBPM project launched in 2018 with the aim of sustaining local social initiatives, in particular improving school equipment and rewarding talented students |
• Investments in educational activities to spread financial awareness and promote an economic and financial culture, in collaborations with institutional partners |
• Involvement of our employees in corporate community services |
• Contributions and donations dedicated to social issues to support local community projects, voluntary associations and non profit organizations • Partnership with AIRC (~5.5k projects and 600 hours dedicated to spreading awareness) |
• Strong financial partner of the Third Sector |
| # of social initiatives for local communities, schools and students |
Hours of ESG awareness and financial education training1 |
Hours of corporate community services |
Contributions and donations to support social and environmental projects2 (€m) |
New lending to third sector (€m) |
| >100 Avg. p.y. 2024-26 in line with current yearly value |

Notes: 1. Excluding ESG Factory. 2. Includes Foundations activity.

| «Core» Revenues1 |
2022 | 2023G | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Revenues (€bn) | 4.7 | ~5.25 | ~5.4 |
| o/w NII (€bn) | 2.3 | ~3.25 | ~3.05 |
| o/w "Core" Non-interest income (€bn) |
2.0 | ~2.0 | ~2.4 |
| Non-interest income on Revenues | ~44% | <40% | ~45% |
| Operating costs (€bn) | ~2.5 | ~2.6 | ~2.7 |
| Cost/income | 54% | <50% | <50% |
| Net Income (€bn) | 0.7 | >1.2 | >1.5 |
| ROTE2 | 7.0% | ~12% | ~13.5% |
| CET 1 RATIO | 12.8% | ~14% | ~14% |
| 30/09/23 | |||
| (bps)5 CoR |
62 | 47 | ~45 |
| GROSS NPE RATIO | 4.2% | 3.5% | ~3.0% |
| NET NPE RATIO | 2.2% | 1.8% | ~1.5% |
EPS GUIDANCE >0.8€ FY 2023 ~0.9€ FY 20243 CONFIRMED
50% of market cap4

Notes: 1. Includes: NII, Net fees, Income from insurance business and income from associates. 2. Calculated as Net Profit from P&L (year x) / Tangible Shareholders' Equity (end-of-period, excluding FY Net Profit, AT1 instruments and Intangible assets net of fiscal effect). 3. Excluding one-off items. 4. Market cap as of 11/12/2023. 5. Annualized for 9M 2023.



| €bn | 2022 | 2023G | 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total revenues | 4.7 | ~5.25 | ~5.4 | |
| o/w NII | 2.3 | ~3.25 | ~3.05 | |
| Profit & Loss |
o/w "Core" Non-interest income1 | 2.0 | ~2.0 | ~2.4 |
| Operating costs | -2.5 | ~2.6 | ~2.7 | |
| Pre-Provision Income | 2.1 | ~2.65 | ~2.75 | |
| Net income | 0.7 | >1.2 | >1.5 | |
| Cost / Income ratio | 54% | <50% | <50% | |
| Key ratios | RoTE2 | 7.0% | ~12% | ~13.5% |
| CET 1 | 12.8% | ~14% | ~14% | |
| 30/09/23 | ||||
| Net customer loans | 109.5 | 108.0 | ~111 | |
| Direct funding from Banking business3 | 123.4 | 124.5 | >133 | |
| Balance sheet & Asset Quality |
Indirect funding4 | 91.3 | 100.0 | >120 |
| Cor (in bps) | 62 | 47 | ~45 | |
| Gross NPE ratio | 4.2% | 3.5% | ~3.0% | |
| Net NPE ratio | 2.2% | 1.8% | ~1.5% |

2022 data are restated for the application of IFRS 17 to subsidiary and associated insurance companies.
Notes: 1. Includes: Net fees, Income from insurance business and income from associates. 2. Calculated as Net Profit from P&L (year x)/ Tangible Shareholder Equity 31.12.XX (excluding Net Profit of the period and AT1 instruments). 3. Excluding REPOs and including Cap. Protected Certificates. 4. Excluding Cap. Protected Certificates from AUC.


Notes: 1. New lending to Corporate and Enterprises belonging to green/low transition risk sectors (as defined at YE 2023) and green lending products to Corporate and Enterprise segments (excluding small business & institutional segments). 2. Mining and quarrying of hard coal; Manufacture of coke oven products; Coal-based energy production.




Registered Offices: Piazza Meda 4, I-20121 Milano, Italy Corporate Offices: Piazza Nogara 2, I-37121 Verona, Italy
[email protected] www.gruppo.bancobpm.it (IR section)

Building tools?
Free accounts include 100 API calls/year for testing.
Have a question? We'll get back to you promptly.