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AUSTAL LIMITED — Interim / Quarterly Report 2016
Jul 3, 2016
64429_rns_2016-07-03_6f307372-f80f-4b67-9eca-15ae13c96386.pdf
Interim / Quarterly Report
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FY2016 earnings and LCS program update
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David Singleton, Chief Executive Officer Greg Jason, Chief Financial Officer
4 July 2016
Summary post detailed review of LCS program
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LCS review
- Increased the total cost estimate for LCS 6 – 26 (11 ships) due to design changes required to achieve shock certification and US Naval Vessel Rules
FY16 guidance
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US$115 million (A$156 million) write back of work in progress on a ~ US$4 billion program
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FY2016 Group EBIT loss expected to be A$(116) – (121) million (unaudited)
Cash
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A$75 million free cashflow in FY2016 (unaudited)
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Net cash A$49 million at 30 June 2016 (unaudited)
FY17 guidance
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FY2017 EBIT guidance A$45 – 55 million
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FY2017 USA shipbuilding margin forecast 5 – 7%
Lifetime profit
- LCS shipbuilding program is forecast to be increasingly profitable and cash positive over its life
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LCS detailed program review completed
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Review complete
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Completed a detailed review of the LCS program following:
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delivery of LCS 6 & 8
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Preliminary results from the first two shock trials of LCS 6
Baseline design
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Defined a revised baseline design to meet the shock standard and US Naval Vessel Rules
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LCS is the first high speed aluminium trimaran to be designed and built to these standards
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LCS 6 is the first high speed aluminium trimaran to be shock tested
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Identified significant modifications to vessels already nearing completion to meet the revised baseline design
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LCS shock trial – key technical requirement
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Unique nature of the vessel has meant that there were minimal design reference points
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2 of 3 planned trials now completed and preliminary feedback is positive
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LCS 6 is the only vessel that will be shock trialled (class not vessel specific)
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Design modifications will be implemented across all vessels LCS 6 - 26
U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 2nd Class Michael Bevan/Released LCS 6 shock trial 1 (June 2016)
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Change of cost estimate
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Shock & US Naval Vessel Rules
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Materially increased the total cost estimate for LCS 6 – 26 (11 ships) due to changes required to meet the revised baseline design
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In discussion with the customer about increases in design scope that may improve Austal’s position
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No value has been attributed to these discussions given their preliminary nature
Concurrent construction
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The cost of implementing the design modifications has been exacerbated by concurrent construction of the fleet
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10 LCS (of 11) had commenced construction by April 2015
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An extensive rework program of constructed vessels is underway
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LCS concurrent construction
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Rework is significantly exacerbated by the concurrent construction of multiple
vessels
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Number of vessels under construction
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Vessel 2 4 6 8 10 10
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
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Financial year
Implementation of modifications
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Implementation of modifications has stabilised giving clarity on full program costs
Operational
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5,000 design modifications with 98% implemented on LCS 6
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Modifications being progressively implemented across the rest of the program
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Continuous optimisation of construction strategy (LCS 8 is the first vessel built in the modular manufacturing facility)
Financial
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Group CFO resident in USA for 2.5 months to review the revised cost estimates and financial impact
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Extent of baseline design modifications and rework quantified as LCS 8 approached completion
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Cost of modifications and rework identified by vessel (costs vary by vessel according to degree of completion)
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Completed a reforecast of LCS program profitability
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Modification program is maturing
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The chart shows that the rework modifications required to existing ships is decreasing which increases cost confidence
Modifications
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6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
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Vessel
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Financial impact
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Profit impact
Risk sharing
Change of estimate
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Cost increases are shared 50 / 50 with the US Navy up to a ceiling price per the LCS contract structure
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The change of estimate means that too much revenue and profit was attributed to work already completed
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Work in progress (WIP) is overstated because additional costs will be incurred to meet the shock standard and US Naval Vessel Rules
FY2016
Future years
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This is being written back as a downward adjustment to revenue and work in progress (WIP) in FY2016
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The revenue written back will be recognised in future years to align with the revised cost forecast of the program
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LCS is expected to be profitable over the remaining life of the program
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Accounting for changes in cost estimates
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Changes in estimated cost at completion result in a write back of WIP and a restatement of profit (graph for illustrative purposes only)
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Actuals Reset Date Forecast Cumulative Profit
X
WIP write down
@ Reset Date Y
Profits continue to be booked after
the reset at a reduced rate
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Time & Progress
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Capital management
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Balance Sheet • Balance sheet remains strong
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Net cash A$49 million at 30 June 2016 (unaudited)
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FY2016 A$75 million cash flow pre-dividends and debt reduction (unaudited)
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A$221 million of cash and A$(140) million of infrastructure debt at 30 June 2016 (unaudited)
Dividends
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No planned change in dividend policy
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Long term average ~ 40% of NPAT
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Expect to declare final FY2016 dividend of 2 cents per share
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Debt
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Compliant with all covenants
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All syndicate banks maintain support
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Expect further reduction in infrastructure debt in FY2017 H1
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Group guidance
FY2016
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EBIT A$(116-121) million loss after accounting for write down of work in progress (unaudited)
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Revenue A$1.3 billion after accounting for write down of work in progress
FY2017
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Revenue A$1.4 billion
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EBIT A$45 – 55 million @ USD / AUD 0.73
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FY2017 forecast USA shipbuilding margin 5.0% - 7.0%
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Continued cash generation from operations
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Questions
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Disclaimer
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David Singleton Chief Executive Officer Greg Jason Chief Financial Officer
Telephone: +61 8 9410 1111
For further information visit www.austal.com
Disclaimer
This presentation and any oral presentation accompanying it has been prepared by Austal Limited (“Austal”). It should not be considered as an offer or invitation to subscribe for or purchase any securities in Austal or as an inducement to make an offer or invitation with respect to those securities. No agreement to subscribe for securities in Austal will be entered into on the basis of this presentation.
Our presentation contains “forward-looking” statements or projections based on current expectations. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and are subject to risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially due to: the availability of US government funding due to budgetary or debt ceiling constraints; changes in customer priorities; additional costs or schedule revisions. Actual results may also effect the capitalization changes on earnings per share; the allowability of costs under government cost accounting divestitures or joint ventures; the timing and availability of future impact of acquisitions; the timing and availability of future government awards; economic, business and regulatory conditions and other factors. We disclaim any duty to update forward looking statements to reflect new developments.
Accordingly, to the maximum extent permitted by applicable laws, Austal makes no representation and can give no assurance, guarantee or warrant, express or implied, as to, and takes not responsibility and assumes no liability for, the authenticity, validity, accuracy, suitability or completeness of, or any errors in or omission, from any information, statement or opinion contained in this presentation.
You should not act or refrain from acting in reliance on this presentation material. This overview of Austal does not purport to be all inclusive or to contain all information which its recipients may require in order to make an informed assessment of Austal’s prospects. You should conduct your own investigation and perform your own analysis in order to satisfy yourself as to the accuracy and completeness of the information, statements and opinions contained in this presentation before making any investment decision.
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