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ASPEN GROUP — Management Reports 2022
Sep 4, 2022
64404_rns_2022-09-04_af7361a3-9867-4a4e-9ec2-604f816539d2.pdf
Management Reports
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Aspen Group South Australia Property Tour
Adelaide
6-7 September 2022
Photo credit: Tourism SA
1 Maylands, WA
South Australia Asset Summary
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2
1
6
3
4
5
Owned
Managed
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About 20% of Aspen’s property assets are based in SA[1]
| SA | Land Area (Hectares) Dwellings /Sites Book Value ($m) Value per Dwelling/Site Cap Rate |
|---|---|
| 1 Adelaide CP |
1.4 97 13.8 $142k 8.00% |
| 2 Highway 1 |
9.9 310 31.6 $102k 8.25% |
| 3 The Ridge, MB |
10.3 94 5.4 $57k |
| 4 Lewis Fields |
3.7 80 2.4 $30k |
| 5 Coorong Quays |
79.0 1,150 24.5 $21k |
| - CQ Residential | 29.0 264 10.4 $40k |
| - CQ Retirement | 7.5 158 4.2 $27k 6.50% |
| - CQ Park | 42.5 728 9.9 $14k 8.44% |
| Total SA | 104.3 1,731 77.6 $48k |
| 6 CREST at Woodside (managed) 3.5 43 |
- Based on book value
2
30%
25%
20%
15%
Aspen’s SA Portfolio Aligns with its Population Dynamics
Population Growth - Total % Increase 2016-2021 (census data)
35%
10%
5%
0%
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Australia
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SA
Aspen owns income producing parks in Metropolitan locations with the potential to increase density on the sites to provide more affordable housing
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Adelaide (ACP)
Salisbury (HWY1)
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Mount Barker (The Ridge)
Aspen is producing new house and land products that suit the demands of the rapidly growing population bases in Regional locations with easy access to jobs and facilities
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Strathalbyn Goolwa-Port Elliott (Lewis Fields) (CQ)
3
SA Snapshot – 2021 Census
Household Income and Housing Costs - Weekly Medians
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SA’s median household income is relatively low,
$2,500 25%
somewhat due to its older population – over 65s
$2,300
are 20% of population v. 17% for Australia
$2,100 20%
$1,900
$1,700 15%
$1,500
$1,300 10%
$1,100
$900 5%
$700
$500 0%
SA NSW VIC QLD WA NT TAS ACT Australia
Income % of Households with <$650pw Income
% of Households Renting
50%
Propensity to buy v. rent is similar to the
45%
rest of Australia
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
SA NSW VIC QLD WA NT TAS ACT Australia
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Housing Costs - Weekly Medians
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$600
SA’s housing costs are relatively low, somewhat
reflecting the lower incomes
$500
$400
$300
$200
$100
$0
SA NSW VIC QLD WA NT TAS ACT Australia
Mortgage Payment Rent
% of Households Paying >30% of Income on Housing
Similar levels of stress across most states – higher stress levels for renters partly because
higher income households can access more debt and have benefited from artificially low
40% interest rates – this has probably pushed up houses prices v. rents
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
SA NSW VIC QLD WA NT TAS ACT Australia
Paying a Mortgage Paying Rent
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Aspen’s Portfolio is Positioned for Growth
We expect rents and values to continue to increase across Aspen’s portfolio over the medium term despite the increase in interest rates:
-
§ Historically low vacancy rates, population growth, and significant building supply bottlenecks and cost spikes are overwhelming the impacts of higher interest rates to date
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§ Aspen’s portfolio has been accumulated at well below replacement cost – our rents are at the lower end of the spectrum and local competition
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§ Our properties are typically well located in metropolitan areas and attractive lifestyle locations with easy access to jobs and facilities - employment conditions are strong
-
§ Rental growth may outpace price growth over the medium term as more households shift to renting due to higher interest rates / mortgage repayments and long delays in new house builds
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Coorong Quays
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Coorong Quays
| CQ Residential | Alexandrina Cove Lifestyle Village |
Opportunities üDeveloping and selling Residential la land lease houses – generating deve creating new annuity income stream and residential encumbrance fees) üDevelopment of the approved cabin sites - potential mix of permanents, customers üCross-selling Park facilities to the gro marina berths, storage areas, tavern üIncreasing occupancy rates in under üIncreasing rental rates from low leve competitive üIncreasing NOI margin – high propor are fixed CQ Park Community Fleurieu Freehold Mixed 42.5 528 0 200 728 15 13 2% $9.85 8.44% $0.23 $14k |
|---|---|---|
| Region Fleurieu |
Fleurieu | |
| Land Ownership Freehold |
Freehold | |
| Resident Tenure N/A |
RV / Land Lease | |
| Total Land Area (HA) 29.0 |
7.5 | |
| Operational Sites 2 |
28 | |
| Pipeline – Developed Sites 1 |
0 | |
| Pipeline - Undeveloped Sites 261 |
130 | |
| Total Approved Sites 264 |
158 | |
| - per Ha 9 |
21 | |
| Owned Dwelling Inventory 2 |
17 | |
| - per Approved Site 1% |
11% | |
| Book Value ($m) $10.44 |
$4.20 | |
| Valuation Cap Rate N/A |
6.50% | |
| Value Per HA ($m) $0.36 |
$0.56 | |
| Value Per Approved Site $40k |
$27k |
-
ü Developing and selling Residential land sites and Retirement land lease houses – generating development profits and creating new annuity income streams (retirement land rents and residential encumbrance fees)
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ü Development of the approved cabin / caravan park - 200 sites - potential mix of permanents, tourists, corporate customers
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ü Cross-selling Park facilities to the growing resident base – eg. marina berths, storage areas, tavern
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ü Increasing occupancy rates in underutilised areas
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ü Increasing rental rates from low levels – while remaining competitive
-
ü Increasing NOI margin – high proportion of operating costs are fixed
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Coorong Quays – Residential, Retirement and Park Community
Future Park Community – 200 approved sites Ex-WWTP – Potential Future Maranoa – Current Stage Storage, Development Future Tavern and Residential Marina Vesta Retirement Community Stage 10 Tenants Current Stage Marina Marina Expansion Existing Residential - Encumbrances
Residential Stage 8 – Recently Sold Out
Future Residential Stage 9 Farmhouse (zoned rural)
Master planned community spanning c.300HA with 3,000 approved sites...
Areas and uses are indicative only
8
CQ Improvements post Receivership
Introduced new Operators to lease the Marine Service Areas
Improved and expanded Storage Areas
Refurbished the Tavern and introduced a new Operator to lease the premises
Closure of WWTP – Woodlot land freed up for Maranoa Residential New Main Road and now connected to Commenced New Council’s sewer Development Footpath Network Entrance system in Goolwa Retirement Village converted to Land Lease and expanded to the waterfront Removal of “temporary” land bridge that was blocking Refurbished / repurposed access to the northern lagoon central marina building and created new CQ Club
Refurbished historic Farmhouse and Leased
The material improvement of the CQ Community over the past few years has helped lift house and land prices, laying the platform for healthy volumes and margins in residential and retirement development...
Areas and uses are indicative only
9
Residential Land Development
Vastly Improved CQ Community = Higher Sales Volumes and Prices for New Houses and Land = Increased Demand for CQ’s Other Facilities...
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Hindmarsh Island Residential Performance [1] CQ - # of Leases - Caravans and Boats
90 $700,000 500
9% per annum increase
450
80
$600,000
400
70
$500,000 350
60
300
50 $400,000
250
40
$300,000
200
30
$200,000 150
20
100
$100,000
10
50
0 $0 0
May 18 May 19 May 20 May 21 May 22 Jul-19 Jul-20 Jul-21 Jul-22
# Land Sales # House Sales Median Land Price Median House Price Wet Berths Dry Dock Caravan Storage Undercover Storage
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- CoreLogic – Years to May
10
Development is Profitable, Cash Generative, and Creates Annuity Income Streams
| Development Pipeline | Development Pipeline | Development Pipeline | Annuity Income Streams - Op ra ing |
Current | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minimum Dwellings / Sites |
Book Value ($m) |
Value per Dwelling/Site |
Current Dwellings / Sites | ||||
| Land Lease Component - Alexandrina Cove Lifestyle Village (ACLV) Residential Land Component Park Component – Wet Berths (excludes dry storage expansion) Park Component - Mixed Use Park Former WWTP Farmhouse Lot Total |
130 261 150 200 TBD TBD 741+ |
2.66 10.44 0.00 1.35 0.45 0.55 15.45 |
$20k $40k $0 $7k TBD TBD |
Future Residents and Customers Add to Annuity Income Streams |
Alexandrina Cove Lifestyle Village – Land Leases (11) and Retirement Village DMF leases (17) Residential Land – Encumbrance Fees (secured by the land title – increases annually by CPI) Park rents (commercial leases, wet & dry berths, boat and caravan storage on land – various lease durations) Farmhouse (residential lease) Total Dwellings / Sites Passing Gross Income Operating Expenses Passing Net Operating Income (e) Margin |
28 1,211 415 occupied (113 wet berths vacant) 1 1,655 $1.53m ($0.78m) $0.75m 49% |
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Residential Land Development
- § Current development works along Maranoa Place and Vesta Drive are expected to complete in FY23 - 31 contracts currently on hand with total value of $5.0m (ex. GST) with expected margin of over 35%
Future Mixed Use Park
-
§ Stage 10 expected to commence in FY24:
-
Premium part of CQ facing Murray River with views to Goolwa and the bridge, close to marina facilities
-
81 lots (25 waterfront), likely to be developed in stages
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Boat and Caravan Storage
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-
Selling prices and margins expected to be higher than current stage
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§ We expect new residents in current and future residential stages to have a higher propensity to lease marina berths as they do not have frontage to the canals
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12 Excelsior Parade Hindmarsh Island
Sold March 2022 - $355k
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Stage 10 Premium Murray River Lots
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Tavern
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Alexandrina Cove Lifestyle Village (ACLV)
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§ Was a traditional Retirement Village (RV) with Deferred Management Fee (DMF)
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§ Substantial, high quality community building and only 17 DMF houses completed prior to falling into receivership – RV house re-leasing values fell to a low of $249k, which was below production cost
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§ Spare land at the village was converted into Land Lease Community use with agreement from the existing RV residents – both resident types share all the community facilities
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§ RV exit fees were reduced from 35% to 20% for existing residents and to 10% for future residents - RV re-leasing values have recovered to around $350k
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§ Production of new houses under the Land Lease model has commenced – 11 houses sold to date at average price of $342k
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§ For each new house developed and sold, we expect to generate c.$115k of value add (profit on house sale plus uplift in land value), and have $nil permanent capital employed[1]
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ACLV - Development Value v. Cost [1]
$150,000
$100,000
$50,000
$0
-$50,000
-$100,000
-$150,000
-$200,000
-$250,000
-$300,000
-$350,000
-$400,000
Raw Land Cost (cash) Land Civils (cash) House Cost (cash) House Sale (cash)Leased Site Value (retained)
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- Illustrative only – estimate based on $20k undeveloped land cost, $45k civils cost, $280k house cost, $350k house sale price, $173.59pw land rent and 80% NOI marginal margin, 6.5% cap rate (all ex. GST)
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Alexandrina Cove Lifestyle Village (ACLV)
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Original Houses leased under
RV scheme
Community Building
New Houses sold under
Land Lease scheme
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Park Community Facilities
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§ Over the past 3 years we have achieved 9% per annum growth in occupancy by improving the park facilities and maintaining low rents across all areas of the park (including the tavern and marine service sheds that are independently operated)
-
§ Current wet berth occupancy is only 67% - if demand grows sufficiently, the number of wet berths and land storage spaces could be expanded at relatively low cost – the marina basin already exists and the spare land is sandy and relatively flat
-
§ In future, as occupancy increases, we will have the opportunity to increase rates further – Aspen’s tourist caravan site revenues are currently multiples of CQ’s marina wet berth revenues
Aspen's Tourist Land Sites - Daily Revenue FY22
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Future expansion –
relatively low cost
Future expansion –
relatively low cost
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$80
$70
$60
$50
$40
$30
$20
$10
$0
CQ Marina ACP Highway 1 Darwin FSR Barlings Tween Koala
Berths Beach Waters Shores
(wet)
RevPOS RevPAS
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Lewis Fields
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Lewis Fields
| Lewis Fields | |
|---|---|
| Region | Fleurieu |
| Land Ownership | Freehold |
| Resident Tenure | RV / Land Lease |
| Total Land Area (HA) | 3.7 |
| Operational Sites | 26 |
| Pipeline – Under Development | 4 |
| Pipeline - Undeveloped Sites | 50 |
| Total Approved Sites | 80 |
| - per Ha | 22 |
| Owned Dwelling Inventory | 26 |
| - per Approved Site | 33% |
| Book Value ($m) | $2.43 |
| Valuation Cap Rate | N/A |
| Value Per HA ($m) | $0.66 |
| Value Per Approved Site | $30,375 |
Opportunities
ü Good quality, established Retirement Village - best village producing new houses in Strathalbyn - offers quieter, rural lifestyle compared to Mount Barker for instance
ü Spare land converted from RV (DMF) to Land Lease scheme - leveraging off existing brand, management and community facilities
- ü Reduced DMF exit fees from 37% to 25% - this should improve re-leasing values and selling times for existing houses
ü First 4 new houses being developed under the land lease scheme were quickly sold at an average price of $369k and high price of $399k – land sites were already serviced
ü Another 50 sites in the development pipeline
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Lewis Fields Retirement Village - Strathalbyn
First 4 Houses Under Construction
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The Ridge Mount Barker
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The Ridge – Mount Barker
| Mount Barker | |
|---|---|
| Region | Adelaide Hills |
| Land Ownership | Freehold |
| Resident Tenure | N/A |
| Total Land Area (HA) | 10.3 |
| Operational Sites | 0 |
| Pipeline – Developed Sites | 25 |
| Pipeline - Undeveloped Sites | 69 |
| Total Approved Sites | 94 |
| - per Ha | 9 |
| Owned Dwelling Inventory | N/A |
| - per Approved Site | N/A |
| Book Value ($m) | $5.37 |
| Valuation Cap Rate | N/A |
| Value Per HA ($m) | $0.52 |
| Value Per Approved Site | $57k |
Opportunities
-
ü Mount Barker is a fast growing, major hub in the Adelaide Hills only 30minutes drive to Adelaide CBD
-
ü The Ridge offers attractive, elevated north and easterly views to the Mount Barker Summit
-
ü Sold first 11 residential land lots at an average price of $254k (inc. GST) at a profit margin of 38% - scope to reduce prices to encourage demand
ü Increasing density by optimising lot layout and sizes
- ü Still contemplating potential LLC at lower part of the site – but Residential use has been far more profitable to date – may be better opportunities to create a new LLC elsewhere in the region
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The Ridge - Mount Barker
- § Property was acquired under a Receivership sale in December 2020
§ Approved for 97 residential lots at time of acquisition – we have already increased this to 105 by optimising density (lot layout and size) in Stage 1 § Stage 1 – 36 lots developed and 11 settled in June 2022 – net sales proceeds covered 100% of the development cost for the entire stage § Expect net sales proceeds from the remaining 25 developed lots to cover the entire initial land cost – could be $nil capital employed at this point § Will assess market conditions through FY23 to determine optimal use of the remaining undeveloped land which is approved for 69 residential lots
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$m The Ridge MB - Cashflow Profile
$1.00
$0.00
-$1.00
-$2.00
-$3.00
-$4.00
-$5.00
-$6.00
-$7.00
-$8.00
Civil Works to Date Remaining Net Proceeds
Acquisition Cost Net Sales Proceeds to Date Stage 1 (e)
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e = estimate
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CREST @ Woodside
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CREST @ Woodside – Aspen Managed
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§ Property was originally a Defence housing estate, then became the Inverbrackie Detention Centre for asylum seekers
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§ Acquired by Mill Hill Capital Affordable Accommodation & Land Fund (AALF) from the Department of Defence in December 2016
-
§ At acquisition:
-
Single title spanning 22 HA
-
Zoned Watershed (Primary Production) – not residential
-
81 houses built mainly in the 1970s in various states of disrepair (the lots coloured orange on site plan)
-
Included old community building and new industrial shed
-
Sewer was disconnected at the boundary for the sale – houses could not be occupied
§ Subsequent improvements:
-
Reconnected sewer to SA Water’s system with a new pump station and about 1.6kms of new pipe
-
Refurbished and leased the houses under existing use rights
-
Gained approvals for subdivision into 171 residential lots (the 81 existing house lots and 90 new land lots)
-
Rejuvenated the infrastructure - roads, footpaths, sewer, power, storm water inc. new natural swales and detention basin, parklands – handed to Council for it to maintain in future
-
§ Individually titled houses and land lots have been sold over time
-
§ AALF expected to wind up in 2023 post completion of Stage 3 - expected investment return of about 3.5x (pre performance fee and tax)
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Adelaide Caravan Park
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Adelaide Caravan Park - Hackney
| ACP | |
|---|---|
| Region | Adelaide Metro |
| Land Ownership | Freehold |
| Resident Tenure | Short Stay |
| Total Land Area (HA) | 1.42 |
| Operational Sites | 97 |
| Pipeline - Refurbishment Dwellings | 0 |
| Pipeline - Undeveloped Sites | 0 |
| Total Approved Sites | 97 |
| - per Ha | 68 |
| Owned Dwelling Inventory | 47 |
| - per Approved Site | 48% |
| Book Value ($m) | $13.79 |
| Valuation Cap Rate | 8.00% |
| Value Per HA ($m) | $9.72 |
| Value Per Approved Site | $142,165 |
Opportunities
-
ü Park now has a good quality, dedicated manager (previously cluster-managed with Highway 1)
-
ü Occupancy and rates have rebounded post Covid disruptions
-
ü Cabin upgrade underway during the downtime – refurbished cabins now commanding higher rates
-
ü Cabins can easily be moved to Highway 1 or other parks when ACP is redeveloped
-
ü Conversion to highest-and-best use – probably multi-story co-living apartment complex (to rent) and townhouse sites (to sell)
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Cabins are Highly Flexible – Refurbish Well and Easy to Transport
ACP cabins have been upgraded during Covid disruptions – expect cabin rates to be higher than pre-Covid....
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Adelaide Caravan Park
ACP has achieved an attractive IRR of ~12% since acquisition… with plenty of opportunity ahead
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$m ACP – Valuation Drivers to Date
$14
$12
$10
$8
ACP is currently valued as a caravan
$6
park - NOI has been impacted by
Covid disruptions and the cap rate is
attractive at 8.00%
$4
$2
$0
Purchase Price Capex NOI Growth Cap Rate Change Book Value
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Cabins - Rate and Occupancy
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$160 Only partially successful in pivoting between short and long stays through 100%
$140 Covid disruptions – rate reduction not fully offset by increased occupancy 90%
80%
$120
70%
$100
60%
$80
50%
$60
40%
$40 30%
$20 20%
FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22
RevPOR RevPAR Occupancy
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Sites - Rate and Occupancy
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$55 Demand for sites was 100%
$50 inelastic during Covid 90%
$45 80%
$40
70%
$35
60%
$30
50%
$25
$20 40%
$15 30%
$10 20%
FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22
RevPOR RevPAR Occupancy
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Adelaide Caravan Park – Land Could be Worth >2x as Residential Use
ACP land is already zoned for Residential use for up to 4 stories... we are planning on producing townhouse land sites to sell and a Co-living apartment building to rent[1] ...
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Developing and
selling premium
townhouse lots
along the park and
river to maximise
value and free up
capital
BTR Co-living community well-suited
to Aspen’s core customer base
Park
River
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- Subject to Council and other approvals
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Highway 1
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Highway 1
| Highway 1 | Opportunities | |
|---|---|---|
| Region | Adelaide Metro | |
| Land Ownership | Freehold | üPark now has a good quality, dedicated manager (previously cluster- managed with ACP) |
| Resident Tenure | Short Stay / Land Lease | |
| Total Land Area (HA) | 9.9 | üPark is now an easy 30-minutes drive into Adelaide CBD post opening of |
| the northern expressway | ||
| Operational Sites | 310 | üMetropolitan area is expanding to the north - eg. Walker Corporation’s |
| Pipeline - Refurbishment Dwellings | 0 | new Riverlea estate 13kms away (up to 30,000 residents over time) |
| Pipeline - Undeveloped Sites Total Approved Sites - per Ha |
0 310 31 |
üPotential for higher average rates post Covid disruptions and to increase NOI margin with tighter cost controls |
| Owned Dwelling Inventory | 115 | üPark upgrade and creating more discrete precincts - Residential, |
| - per Approved Site | 37% | Corporate, Tourist |
| üOptimising the mix of cabins and land sites | ||
| Book Value ($m) | $31.56 | |
| Valuation Cap Rate | 8.25% | üCan rent new cabins or sell them with a land lease |
| Value Per HA ($m) | $3.20 | |
| Value Per Approved Site | $101,806 |
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Highway 1
Highway 1 has achieved an attractive IRR of ~14% since acquisition… with plenty of opportunity ahead
Highway 1 – Valuation Drivers to Date
$m $30 $25 $20 $15 ~~NOI has been held back by Covid~~ disruptions, there are opportunities to improve the park $10 ~~and increase density, and the cap~~ rate is very attractive at 8.25% $5 $0 Purchase Price Capex NOI Growth Cap Rate Change Book Value
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Cabins - Rate and Occupancy
Successful pivots between short and long stays through
$100 100%
Covid disruptions – reduced rates to increase demand
$90 90%
$80 80%
$70 70%
$60 60%
$50 50%
$40 40%
$30 30%
$20 20%
FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22
RevPOR RevPAR Occupancy
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Sites - Rate and Occupancy
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$35 High proportion of sites rented to permanents 100%
90%
$30
80%
$25 70%
60%
$20 50%
40%
$15
30%
$10 20%
FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22
RevPOR RevPAR Occupancy
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Highway 1 Master Planning
§ Existing layout:
-
Modern section to the north that accommodates mainly short stay tourists in cabins and van sites
-
Old section to the south with mainly permanent residents and some short stay customers, poorly designed and depreciated infrastructure
-
Conflicting resident / customer interests
§ Planned improvements[1] :
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Existing
North
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-
More defined Residential, Tourism and Corporate precincts
-
More efficient internal road network and upgraded infrastructure & facilities
-
Maximising revenue potential by optimising density (site layout and sizing), and mix of dwellings & land sites
-
Dwellings can be sold (with land lease) or leased
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Planned
Tourist Corporate Residential
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- Subject to Council and other approvals
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Disclaimer
This presentation has been prepared by Aspen Group Limited on behalf of Aspen Group Limited and Aspen Property Trust (“Aspen”) and should not be considered in any way to be an offer, invitation, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the subscription for, purchase or sale of any security, and neither this document nor anything in it shall form the basis of any contract or commitment. Prospective investors should make their own independent evaluation of an investment in Aspen. Nothing in this presentation constitutes investment, legal, tax or other advice. The information in this presentation does not take into account your investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. The information does not purport to constitute all of the information that a potential investor may require in making an investment decision.
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Aspen has prepared this presentation based on information available to it. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information, opinions and conclusions contained in this presentation. To the maximum extent permitted by law, none of Aspen, its directors, employees or agents, nor any other person accepts any liability, including, without limitation, any liability arising from fault or negligence on the part of any of them or any other person, for any loss arising from the use of this presentation or its contents or otherwise arising in connection with it.
This presentation contains forward looking information. Indications of, and guidance on, future earnings, distributions and financial position and performance are forward looking statements. Forward looking statements are based on Aspen’s current intentions, plans, expectations, assumptions, and beliefs about future events and are subject to risks, uncertainties and other factors which could cause actual results to differ materially. Aspen and its related bodies corporate and their respective directors, officers, employees, agents, and advisers do not give any assurance or guarantee that the occurrence of any forward-looking information, view or intention referred to in this presentation will actually occur as contemplated. All references to dollar amounts are in Australian currency.
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Photo credit: Tourism SA