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APA GROUP — Investor Presentation 2021
May 25, 2021
64398_rns_2021-05-25_017df84c-c296-4917-92f7-c28048ea17b0.pdf
Investor Presentation
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Australian Pipeline Ltd ACN 091 344 704 | Australian Pipeline Trust ARSN 091 678 778 | APT Investment Trust ARSN 115 585 441 Level 25, 580 George Street Sydney NSW 2000 | PO Box R41 Royal Exchange NSW 1225 Phone +61 2 9693 0000 | Fax +61 2 9693 0093 APA Group | apa.com.au
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26 May 2021
ASX ANNOUNCEMENT
APA Group (ASX: APA)
APA 2021 Investor Day
Strategy and capability to deliver growth
APA Group (ASX: APA) today provides the attached presentations from APA Group’s management team in relation to its 2021 Investor Day.
The Investor Day will be webcast live at 9:00am (Sydney time) today, Wednesday 26 May 2021. A replay of the webcast will be made available on APA’s website to view on demand for those unable to attend the live webcast. Further details are available on APA’s website in the investor reports and presentation section.
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Authorised for release by Nevenka Codevelle Company Secretary Australian Pipeline Limited
For further information, please contact:
Investor enquiries: Media enquiries: Yoko Kosugi Ben Pratt General Manager, Investor Relations & Analytics General Manager, External Affairs & Reputation Telephone: +61 2 9693 0073 Telephone: +61 2 9228 8300 Mob: +61 438 010 332 Mob: +61 419 968 734 Email: [email protected] Email: [email protected]
About APA Group (APA)
APA is a leading Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) listed energy infrastructure business. We own and/or manage and operate a diverse, $22 billion portfolio of gas, electricity, solar and wind assets. Consistent with our purpose to strengthen communities through responsible energy, we deliver approximately half of the nation’s gas usage and connect Victoria with South Australia and New South Wales with Queensland through our investments in electricity transmission assets. We are also one of the largest owners and operators of renewable power generation assets in Australia, with wind and solar projects across the country.
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APT Pipelines Limited is a wholly owned subsidiary of Australian Pipeline Trust and is the borrowing entity of APA Group.
For more information visit APA’s website, apa.com.au.
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APA Investor Day 26 May 2021
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Strategy and capability to deliver growth
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disclaimer
This presentation has been prepared by Australian Pipeline Limited (ACN 091 344 704) as responsible entity of the Australian Pipeline Trust (ARSN 091 678 778) and APT Investment Trust (ARSN 115 585 441) (APA Group).
The information in this presentation does not contain all the information which a prospective investor may require in evaluating a possible investment in APA Group and should be read in conjunction with the APA Group’s other periodic and continuous disclosure announcements which are available at www.apa.com.au.
All references to dollars, cents or ‘$’ in this presentation are to Australian currency, unless otherwise stated.
Not financial product advice: Please note that Australian Pipeline Limited is not licensed to provide financial product advice in relation to securities in the APA Group. This presentation is for information purposes only and is not financial product or investment advice or a recommendation to acquire APA Group securities and has been prepared without taking into account the objectives, financial situation or needs of individuals. Before making an investment decision, prospective investors should consider the appropriateness of the information having regard to their own objectives, financial situation and needs and seek professional advice if necessary.
Past performance: Past performance information should not be relied upon as (and is not) an indication of future performance.
Forward looking statements: This presentation contains certain forward looking information, including about APA Group, which is subject to risk factors. “Forward-looking statements” may include indications of, and guidance on, future earnings and financial position and performance. Forward-looking statements can generally be identified by the use of forward-looking words such as, 'expect', 'anticipate', 'likely', 'intend', 'could', 'may', 'predict', 'plan', 'propose', 'will', 'believe', 'forecast', 'estimate', 'target', 'outlook', 'guidance' and other similar expressions and include, but are not limited to, forecast EBIT and EBITDA, operating cash flow, distribution guidance and estimated asset life.
APA Group believes that there are reasonable grounds for these forward looking statements and due care and attention have been used in preparing this presentation. However, the forward looking statements, opinions and estimates provided in this presentation are based on assumptions and contingencies which are subject to change without notice, as are statements about market and industry trends, which are based on interpretations of current market conditions and are subject to risk factors associated with the industries in which APA Group operates. Forward-looking statements, opinions and estimates are not guarantees or predictions of future performance and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties and other factors, many of which are beyond the control of APA Group, and may involve significant elements of subjective judgement and assumptions as to future events which may or may not be correct. There can be no assurance that actual outcomes will not materially differ from these forward-looking statements, opinions and estimates. A number of important factors could cause actual results or performance to differ materially from such forward-looking statements, opinions and estimates.
Investors should form their own views as to these matters and any assumptions on which any forward-looking statements are based. APA Group assumes no obligation to update or revise such information to reflect any change in expectations or assumptions.
Investment risk: An investment in securities in APA Group is subject to investment and other known and unknown risks, some of which are beyond the control of APA Group. APA Group does not guarantee any particular rate of return or the performance of APA Group.
Non-IFRS financial measures: APA Group results are reported under International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS). However, investors should be aware that this presentation includes certain financial measures that are non-IFRS financial measures for the purposes of providing a more comprehensive understanding of the performance of the APA Group. These nonIFRS financial measures include EBIT, EBITDA and other “normalised” measures. Such non-IFRS information is unaudited, however the numbers have been extracted from the audited financial statements.
Not an offer: This presentation does not constitute an offer, invitation or recommendation to subscribe for or purchase any security. In particular, this presentation does not constitute an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any securities in the United States. Securities may not be offered or sold, directly or indirectly, in the United States or to persons that are acting for the account or benefit of persons in the United States, unless they have been registered under the U.S. Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the U.S. Securities Act), or are offered and sold in a transaction exempt from, or not subject to, the registration requirements of the U.S. Securities Act and any other applicable state securities laws.
Non-GAAP financial measures: Investors should be aware that certain financial data included in this presentation are "nonGAAP financial measures" under Regulation G of the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. These measures are EBITDA, normalised EBITDA and statutory EBITDA. The disclosure of such non-GAAP financial measures in the manner included in the presentation may not be permissible in a registration statement under the U.S. Securities Act. These non-GAAP financial measures do not have a standardised meaning prescribed by Australian Accounting Standards and therefore may not be comparable to similarly titled measures presented by other entities, and should not be construed as an alternative to other financial measures determined in accordance with Australian Accounting Standards. Although APA Group believes these nonGAAP financial measures provide useful information to users in measuring the financial performance and condition of its business, investors are cautioned not to place undue reliance on any non-GAAP financial measures included in this presentation.
Acknowledgement: Certain icons used in the presentation were designed by Freepik, Icongreek26, Nikita Golubev, Eucalyp and Srip from Flaticon.
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APA Investor Day 26 May 2021
Welcome
Ask a question
Please click on Or Press *1
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3
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Wind farm blade, Badgingarra Wind Farm in Western Australia
Rob Wheals CEO & Managing Director Strategy execution
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APA Investor Day 26 May 2021
Growth strategy with proven capability in energy infrastructure
Strategy:
-
Invest in gas, electricity and renewables infrastructure (contracted and regulated) in Australia and North America
-
Leverage our energy infrastructure capabilities into next generation energy technologies (Pathfinder Program)
-
Respond to the changing needs of our customers
-
Maintain disciplined investment, securityholder returns and a strong balance sheet (including BBB/Baa2 credit ratings)
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Purpose: We strengthen communities through responsible energy Vision: To be world class in energy solutions
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APA Investor Day 26 May 2021
Proven success as a leading Australian energy infrastructure business
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The drivers of our success to date Diverse energy infrastructure portfolio
•
Consolidated pipeline assets across
Gas infrastructure Power Generation
Australia over the past 20 years
− Built the East Coast Grid Transmission [(1)] Renewable energy [(1)]
15,425 km transmission 342 MW Wind
−
Acquired Wallumbilla Gladstone pipelines 149 MW Solar
Pipeline, APA’s first “off-shore” asset
Gas fired [(1)]
Storage
• Diversified into other energy asset classes 440 MW
12,000 tonnes LNG
(solar and wind)
18 PJ gas
Electricity transmission
•
Highly contracted and regulated revenues
Processing
243 km high voltage lines [(1)]
• Skills and capability in infrastructure 90 TJ/day processing plants
operations and development
Distribution [(2)] US
•
Low cost of capital
>29,500 km gas mains and
pipelines Entry: regulated gas or
integrated gas and electricity
>1.4 million gas customers
utilities
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(1) Includes 100% of assets operated by APA Group, which form part of Energy Investments segment, including SEA Gas and EII (partially owned)
(2) Includes 100% of assets operated by APA Group in Queensland, New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia
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APA Investor Day 26 May 2021
Growth markets for energy infrastructure have informed our strategy
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•
Significant growth opportunities in renewables and firming,
> >$68
electrification and hydrogen infrastructure
• In Australia - > $68 billion of investment opportunities to 2040
−
Gas pipeline infrastructure $8 billion
~US$2.7
−
Renewables + firming + storage >$40 billion
−
Electrification (primarily transmission) >$20 billion
• In USA - ~ US$2.7 trillion of investment opportunities to 2040
−
Gas pipeline infrastructure US$125 billion
−
Renewables + firming US$1.6 trillion
−
Electrification US$1 trillion
•
The hydrogen economy - up to US$11 trillion of investments
worldwide to 2050
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Source: BNEF, AEMO ISP, estimates; 2035 The Report; IEA WEO 2020; INGAA Infrastructure Study; APA estimates
-
1) Based on AEMO ISP includes renewables and gas
-
2) Assumes clean molecules assumptions are based on average hydrogen cost, capital costs based on BNEF
-
3) All investment forecast are in real terms
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APA Investor Day 26 May 2021
Changing generation mix requires significant global investment
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Generation capacity growth ~3x Significant annual investment
Wind & solar accounting for ~60% by 2050 in electricity transmission [(1)]
Gas key to firming
20,683 GW US$636 billion
6% Battery
New
23%
connections
39% Solar
Network
35%
reinforcements
7,566 GW 20% Wind US$235 billion
11% 15%
8% 8% Hydro
17%
23% 15% Gas 42% 42% Replacements
Coal
27%
7% 44%
Other
13% 4.4%
2019 2050 2020 2050
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Source: BNEF (Bloomberg New Energy Finance); New Energy outlook 2020; Power Grid long term outlook 2021 Note: 1) investments represents real annual spend estimates
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APA Investor Day 26 May 2021
Gas remains a critical energy source
-
Gas accounts for 26% of primary energy consumption
-
40% of domestic gas is used for electricity generation
-
20% of electricity generated from gas[(1)]
-
In Victoria – peak gas demand ~1,300TJ/d is equivalent to 2x the peak electricity consumption in Victoria[(2)]
-
Gas is critical to offset reliability constraints of renewable energy (firming)
Current Australian primary energy consumption by fuel type[(1)]
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2,402 PJ (39%)
1,802 PJ (29%)
1,593 PJ (26%)
400 PJ (6%)
Oil
Coal
Gas
Renewables
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Current Australian electricity generation by fuel type[(1)]
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58%
Coal
20%
Gas 7% 6% 6%
3%
Wind Hydro Solar Other
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Source:
-
1) Australian Energy Statistics FY2019 data, Australian domestic natural gas flow excluding LNG uses
-
2) Based on AEMO GSOO 2021 data of Victorian winter peak of 1,300 TJ/d which is equivalent to running the Victorian electricity network at 15,000MW/h for an entire day. 1 GJ = 0.28 MWh Charts: Department of Industry, Science, Energy and Resources, Australian Energy Statistics, Australian natural gas flows excluding LNG uses and exports - figure 2.3, Table C and Table O, September 2020
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APA Investor Day 26 May 2021
Growth capex accelerating from recent lows
Current market dynamics
-
Policy uncertainty
-
Shorter contract terms
-
Flexible supply arrangements with customers
-
Lower inflationary environment
Recent developments
-
RIS decision outcome
-
Northern Goldfields Interconnect
-
East Coast Grid expansion
-
Gruyere Hybrid Energy Microgrid
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Organic growth capex [(1)]
$700 m
$600 m
$500 m
$400 m
$300 m
$200 m
$100 m
$0 m
FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21F FY22F
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Note: 1) Excluding Orbost Gas Processing Plant capital expenditure; FY21 and FY22 are forecast estimates, representing committed projects, subject to change.
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APA Investor Day 26 May 2021
Growth strategy aligned with Net Zero ambition and Sustainability Roadmap
-
Net Zero ambition embedded in our decision-making
-
Interim targets to be established in FY2022
-
A Climate Change Management Plan Net Zero ambition
-
developed
-
Future growth opportunities will be considered against our Net Zero ambition
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APA Investor Day 26 May 2021
The right team to deliver
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Darren Rogers
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Nevenka Codevelle
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Julian Peck
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Ross Gersbach
Operations and asset management
-
Process safety and security of supply
-
Asset life cycle planning and management
Governance and external affairs
-
Sustainability, community and external affairs
-
Governance, legal, risk, compliance and regulatory
Commercial and strategy
-
Business and corporate development
-
Customer engagement and contracting
North American development
-
US strategy development and market position
-
Local regulatory engagement
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Technology and transformation
-
Operational and information technology
-
Next generation energy solutions - Pathfinder program
Hannah McCaughey
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Infrastructure development
-
Energy infrastructure development and delivery
-
Stakeholder engagement
Kevin Lester
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People safety and culture
-
Culture and high performance
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HSEH framework
Jane Thomas
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Finance
-
Corporate services
-
Finance and capital management
Adam Watson
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APA Investor Day 26 May 2021
Uniquely positioned for growth as the energy transition accelerates
What we are
Why invest in APA
-
Uniquely diversified and integrated energy infrastructure business
-
8th largest renewable energy generator in Australia[(1)]
-
Electricity transmission operations in SA-Vic, NSW-Qld
-
US strategy aimed at leveraging existing capability in one of the world’s largest energy markets
-
Pathfinder program established to unlock next generation energy solutions
-
Proven capabilities, skills and experiences in energy infrastructure operations and development
-
Low risk business model underpinned by stable, inflation linked earnings from largely contracted and regulated revenues
-
Scale of assets that provides an unmatched ability to operate as a network
-
Strong balance sheet to fund growth and steadily growing distribution for securityholders
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(1) BNEF renewables rankings - owner summary
APA Investor Day 26 May 2021
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We have the strategy, capability and balance sheet to grow
- ➢ Growth in Australia −Julian Peck
Strategy
-
➢ Pathfinder −Hannah McCaughey ➢ Growth in North America − Ross Gersbach
-
9:20am – 11:00am Q & A session #1
20 min break
-
➢ Capabilities to deliver growth
-
Darren Rogers, Nevenka Codevelle
-
Capability ➢ Capital Management −Adam Watson
-
11:20am – 12:30pm Q & A session #2
-
➢ Closing Comments −Rob Wheals
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APA Investor Day 26 May 2021
Julian Peck Group Executive Strategy and Commercial Targeting growth markets in energy infrastructure
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APA Investor Day 26 May 2021
Significant energy infrastructure investment required as the energy market transitions
Energy transition in Australia requires multiple energy solutions
-
Market forecast and visible pipeline suggests ~$68 billion of investment required by 2040
-
Significant investment expected in electrification and renewables
-
Gas to play a critical role in the energy transition
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$8 billion of gas pipeline infrastructure
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$40 billion of renewables + firming
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$20 billion
of electrification
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Source: Investment forecast in real terms based on renewables and firming and electrification based on AEMO ISP includes renewables and gas, APA estimates
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APA Investor Day 26 May 2021
Energy transition is well underway in Australia
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AEMO Integrated System Plan 2020
50 GW
Solar
40 GW
30 GW
Wind
20 GW
10 GW
Dispatchable [(1)]
0 GW
Coal
-10 GW
-20 GW
Generation Capacity
2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042
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State based support for continued
renewables investment
Category 1NSW 16%
Category 2QLD 11% 50%
Category 3VIC 22% 50%
Category 4SA 50% 100%
TASTAS [(2)] 95%
0% 50% 100%
FY19 renewables 2030 state based
electricity generation renewables generation
percentage target
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Source: AEMO Integrated System Plan, 2020 central scenario; Australian Energy Statistic update 2020 Table O Electricity generation, by fuel type, by state Note: 1) Dispatchable generation includes utility-scale pumped hydro, gas-powered generation and battery storage 2) Tasmania has a renewable generation of 200% to 2040
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APA Investor Day 26 May 2021
Positioned for further growth in renewables
Existing presence in renewables
-
APA is the 8[th] largest owner of Australian renewable energy projects[(1)]
-
APA’s combined portfolio of renewables and gas powered plant has an average portfolio emissions intensity of 0.27, less than half of NEM average[(2)]
-
Next generation energy solutions including the Gruyere hybrid energy microgrid
Foundations for further growth and investment
-
Capacity to leverage APA’s existing national footprint to develop wind and solar projects
-
Growing demand from existing mining, commercial and industrial customers for clean energy solutions
-
Gas is the perfect companion for renewables to provide firm energy
-
Greenfield opportunities currently represent the best return on investment
-
Highly selective in assessing opportunities given competition for brownfield assets
Badgingarra wind and solar farms, WA
Source: 1) BNEF renewables rankings - owner summary Note: 2) NEM – National Electricity Market in Australia
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APA Investor Day 26 May 2021
Electrification via transmission and distribution networks
NSW and Victorian Renewable Energy Zones
-
Governments developing renewable energy zones (REZs) to combine infrastructure and attract private investment
-
Governments expected to welcome development contestability through procurement structures
-
Significant investment to 2040
-
NSW projects up to $14 billion
-
Victoria projects up to $4 billion
-
These commitments are ~2x the current installed electricity transmission capital bases of NSW and Vic[(1)]
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High voltage transmission links (500-220 kV) Renewable energy zones
Source: AEMO Integrated System Plan 2020 - Projected transmission network requirements; NSW Electricity Infrastructure Roadmap Note: 1) Estimate based on TransGrid and Ausnet electricity transmission Regulated Asset Base
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APA Investor Day 26 May 2021
Gas supporting energy decarbonisation
- Australia’s NEM[(1)] can be largely decarbonised by further investment in known gas and renewables technologies
Gas can ensure the reliability of a very high renewable generation system (93%) at a lower cost and lower emissions[(3)]
-
Multiple studies[(2)] , including an indicative NEM 93/7 scenario have concluded that gas and renewables is the most economical and secure pathway to net zero
-
Full renewable electrification is higher cost, less flexible and less reliable
-
Offsets will support Net Zero at a significantly lower cost
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Emission intensity
0.71 t CO2-e /MWh Coal
Gas
23 % Renewables
Other
6 %
93 %
70 %
Emission intensity
0.04 t CO2 –e /MWh
7 %
NEM 2020 NEM 93/7
Scenario 2035
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Source: 1) National Electricity Market
-
2) Potential for Gas-Powered Generation to support renewables, Frontier Economics; Climate Change Commission (NZ), 2021 Draft Advice for Consultation; 2035 The Report, Goldman School of Public Policy UC Berkeley
-
Note: 3) Indicative NEM 93/7 Scenario – APA estimate of emission intensity based on 93% renewables unconstrained scenario from Potential for Gas-Powered Generation to support renewables, Frontier Economics and the emission data from the NGER Greenhouse and energy information by designated generation facility 2019-20
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APA Investor Day 26 May 2021
Gas is the most reliable companion for renewables
Case Study South Australia 12[th] May 2021 – Gas delivered 75% of peak electricity consumption due to low wind and solar availability
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2,000 MW
1,800 MW
1,600 MW
1,400 MW
1,200 MW
1,000 MW
800 MW
600 MW
400 MW
200 MW
0 MW
-200 MW
12 AM 1 AM 2 AM 3 AM 4 AM 5 AM 6 AM 7 AM 8 AM 9 AM 10 AM 11 AM 12 PM 1 PM 2 PM 3 PM 4 PM 5 PM 6 PM 7 PM 8 PM 9 PM 10 PM 11 PM
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Solar
Wind
Battery (Discharging)
Gas Peaking
Gas Intermediate
Other
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Source: Chart – OpenNEM, Solar includes utility scale and rooftop solar, other includes import, export and Distillate
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APA Investor Day 26 May 2021
Pipeline gas is lower emissions and generally lower cost than imported LNG
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LNG gas price are generally more
Emissions intensity estimate (Kg CO2-e per GJ)
expansive and move volatile
+19%
70KG
$25
Vic gas spot price
60KG LNG spot price [(1)]
$20
50KG
40KG $15
30KG
$10 LNG average
20KG
Vic gas average
$5
10KG
0KG $0
Jan 16 Jan 17 Jan 18 Jan 19 Jan 20 Jan 21
LNG Gas
Pipeline Gas
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Source: Gas emissions intensity estimates based on UK Government, Department for Environment Food & Rural Affairs and Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy; LNG spot prices from Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry Japan
Note: 1) Natural Gas at Victorian short term spot market price, LNG pricing excludes regasification and landing costs
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APA Investor Day 26 May 2021
Capability to grow in energy infrastructure
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Regulated/contracted Gas Infrastructure
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Regulated/contracted Electricity Infrastructure
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Renewables
& Firming
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Infrastructure development Commercial development Project development and management Planning, heritage and environmental management Construction delivery
Stakeholder management Regulatory management Access and approvals Governance and risk management
Operational capability People and process safety Asset lifecycle management Asset maintenance Network management Customer metering operations
Funding Investment appraisal Access to capital Counterparty risk management Investor relations
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APA Investor Day 26 May 2021
Hannah McCaughey Group Executive Transformation & Technology Next generation energy technologies
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APA Investor Day 26 May 2021
Pathfinder to unlock next generation energy solutions
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Initial focus areas
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Clean fuels
Energy storage
Microgrids
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01
R&D
Investigate net zero technologies
(e.g. Parmelia Hydrogen Project)
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02
Projects
Clean fuels, energy storage and renewable
hybrids
(e.g. Gruyere Power Station Microgrid)
03
Technology
Invest to scale opportunities in new
markets
(e.g. Hunter Hydrogen Network Project)
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APA Investor Day 26 May 2021
APA is well placed to participate in Australia’s clean hydrogen economy
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Australia has a natural competitive advantage in clean hydrogen due to its vast land mass and abundant renewable resource Extensive pipeline network in proximity of existing and proposed renewables linking to major industrial centres and ports Potential for APA’s existing pipeline network to be repurposed for hydrogen (fully or blended)
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APA Investor Day 26 May 2021
Parmelia hydrogen project confirming adaptability of existing pipelines
Parmelia Gas Pipeline (PGP) Hydrogen Project
Phase 1 (materials lab testing) completed[(1)] Testing of the pipeline confirms the technical viability of the pipeline material to transport hydrogen
Project objective
Convert 43km of the PGP to a hydrogen ready pipeline in a key hydrogen production and usage location, linked to a large industrial base and transport hub, with the potential to service export markets
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Materials
Hydrogen
testing
testing
Operational
Commercialisation
testing
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Note: 1) pipeline material tested against US standard to transport Hydrogen
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APA Investor Day 26 May 2021
Actively investigating energy storage and microgrids
-
Energy storage will be an important technology both on and off-grid
-
Customers are increasingly seeking integrated renewable solutions through innovation such as microgrids (e.g gas, solar and battery storage)
-
Gruyere Power Station being augmented with low carbon energy infrastructure
-
13MWp solar farm
-
4.4 MWh energy storage system
-
Hybrid control system
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End user
Mining site
Indicative
microgrid
structure
Gas-powered generation
supported by battery storage
Variable renewable energy
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APA Investor Day 26 May 2021
Economics of future energy solutions will drive demand
-
Clean hydrogen will become economical through:
-
government support and regulatory reform
-
scaled investments
-
low-cost renewable energy
-
low-cost transportation
-
Forecasts generally suggest that clean hydrogen will achieve parity with gas in ~2050
-
However, there may be niche industrial applications where clean hydrogen is cost competitive earlier
-
Battery prices are closely linked to the battery technology advancements to support electric vehicle industry and alternate uses such electricity network frequent control
Global green hydrogen cost could be comparable to natural gas by 2050
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$70 GJ
$60 GJ
$50 GJ
$40 GJ
$30 GJ
$20 GJ
$10 GJ
$0 GJ
Gas Green hydrogen Green Hydrogen
current current 2050F
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Source: Cost of green hydrogen is a blend between IRENA (2019), BNEF (2020), Energy Transition Commission (2021) and Hydrogen Council (2020) forecast; Gas price and forecast from AEMO GSOO (2021) and WA GSOO (2020)
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APA Investor Day 26 May 2021
Capability to participate in future energy solutions
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Clean fuels
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Energy storage
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Microgrids
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Infrastructure development
Commercial development Project development and management Planning, heritage and environmental management Construction delivery
Stakeholder management Regulatory management Access and approvals Governance and risk management
Operational capability
People and process safety Asset lifecycle management Asset maintenance Network management Customer metering operations
Funding
Investment appraisal Access to capital Counterparty risk management Investor relations
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APA Investor Day 26 May 2021
Ross Gersbach President North American Development Leveraging capability in one of the world’s largest energy markets
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APA Investor Day 26 May 2021
Energy infrastructure investment in the US will be significant
Energy transition in the US will require investment in multiple energy sources
-
Market forecast suggests ~US$2.7 trillion of investment required by 2040
-
Significant investment expected in electrification and renewables
-
Gas to play a critical role in the energy transition
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US$125 billion US$1.6 trillion of gas pipeline infrastructure of renewables + firming
US$1 trillion of electrification
Source: 2035 The Report; IEA WEO 2020; APA estimates Note: All investment forecast are in real terms
32
APA Investor Day 26 May 2021
Growth in multiple energy sources to support the energy transition
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Renewables, coupled with gas, expected
to attract significant investment through
the energy transition
5,458 TWh
4,127 TWh
other 42%
10%
renewables
natural gas 24%
36%
coal 45%
36%
11%
nuclear 20%
11%
2020 2050
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----- Start of picture text -----
Significant annual investment
in electricity transmission [(1)]
US$123 billion
23%
36%
US$49 billion
New
8%
connections
Network
52%
reinforcements 41%
Replacements 39%
2020 2050
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Source: US Energy Information Administration; BNEF Note: 1) investments represents real annual spend estimates
33
APA Investor Day 26 May 2021
Substantial investment to be made developing renewables and electrification to achieve Net Zero
Installed capacity on continental US as of 31 December 2020
-
~0.22 TW Wind and Solar
-
~59,000 km[2 ] land used (0.6% of US land mass)
2050 RE+ High electrification, renewables only scenario - Significant challenges exist to achieve Net Zero without gas
-
5.8 TW wind and solar capacity (26 times)
-
1,075,000 km[2 ] land used (~11% of US land mass)
-
US$8.73 trn capital invested (2018$)
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Transmission
capacity (GW)
0.0006
0.0006 – 70.5
Offshore Wind
70.5 Solar
Wind
0.0006
23.5004 Population density ≤ 100 people per square km
47.0002 Population density > 100 people per square km
70.5 Existing transmission (>345 kV), thickness does not reflect capacity
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Source: The Net Zero America: Potential Pathways, Infrastructure and Impacts, Princeton University. Investment and capacity is cumulative from 2020-2050. Net Zero America is a comprehensive and rigorous report that sets forth the economic, technological, land use and energy system changes that would be required for the US to achieve Net Zero emissions by 2050
34
APA Investor Day 26 May 2021
Favourable dynamics driving US to be the world's largest natural gas market
The US is the world’s largest consumer of natural gas
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US 17,705 PJ
Russia 8,650 PJ
China 7,159 PJ
Iran 4,904 PJ
Canada 2,401 PJ
Australia 596 PJ
others 33,545 PJ
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Abundance of natural gas reserves
- ~3,400 TCF of total US gas resources
A primary source of energy
- 3 million miles of natural gas pipeline supplying ~77 million customers
Favourable demand drivers
- Low cost energy source; cold winter climate regions; constructive regulatory frameworks
Note: Natural gas final consumption in 2018, (PJ-gross)
Source: IEA Gas Information 2020; American Gas Association Play book 2021
35
APA Investor Day 26 May 2021
Natural gas is the most cost-efficient and competitive source of energy for heating
Low-cost natural gas in US
-
Proximity to abundant reserves
-
Gas is cheaper than alternative energy sources
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----- Start of picture text -----
~3.6x
~3x
Residential
energy cost US$36 US$35
(US$ per MMBtu)
Natural Gas
Electricity
US$12
US$10
2020 2050F
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Efficient delivery system also drives down costs
-
Direct use natural gas delivery systems are highly efficient with ~91% of source energy reaching the end customer
-
This compares favourably to the process of converting natural gas into electricity which results in significant leakage of energy during generation and distribution. i.e ~36% efficiency
Source: AGA 2021 playbook; US Energy Information Administration; Annual Energy Outlook 2021, Table 3. Energy Prices by Sector and Source, US overall, reference case
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Extraction,
Processing Generation Distribution Delivered to
customers
& Transportation
~7% ~1%
~91%
Energy Energy
Loss Loss Efficiency
vs
~5% ~60% ~5%
~36%
Energy Energy Energy
Loss Loss Loss Efficiency
Direct Use of Natural Gas
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36
APA Investor Day 26 May 2021
The US remains highly attractive
Disciplined focus
- Cold winter climate regions
Target markets aligned with refreshed strategy
-
Low cost energy sources
-
Stable and predictable earnings
-
Attractive returns on equity
We have capability to successfully own, operate and develop energy infrastructure
-
Supportive policy, legislative and regulatory regimes
-
Capacity to expand into growth energy markets
-
Ability to leverage APA's existing capabilities in owning, operating and developing energy infrastructure
We have a competitive cost of capital
-
High quality management teams and local talent
-
Value accretion
We remain disciplined
37
APA Investor Day 26 May 2021
US energy infrastructure ambition
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Regulated/contracted Gas Infrastructure
-
Attractive entry point
-
Comparable to APA’s existing Australian capability
-
Supportive market environment
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Regulated/contracted Electricity Infrastructure
-
Integrated gas and electricity distribution networks
-
Complementary portfolio opportunities
-
Energy transition as a growth driver
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Renewables and Firming
-
Transferable skills and project development experience
-
Complementary portfolio opportunities
-
Energy transition as a growth driver
38
APA Investor Day 26 May 2021
Q&A session #1
Ask a question Please click on Or Press *1
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39
APA Investor Day 26 May 2021
Break
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Capability to deliver growth
Darren Rogers Group Executive Operations Nevenka Codevelle Group Executive Governance and External affairs
41
APA Investor Day 26 May 2021
Existing APA operational footprint diversified across a range of energy infrastructure assets
Assets Gas Pipeline, Processing & Storage Gas-fired Generation Renewables Generation Electricity Transmission
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Customers
Servicing ~100 wholesale and >1.4 million network customers
Operations >1,200 employee spread across more than 50 locations in Operations & Maintenance, Engineering, Health, Safety & Environment and Networks operations
Note: Gruyere Hybrid Energy Microgrid is under construction
42
APA Investor Day 26 May 2021
APA has deep experience owning and operating energy infrastructure
-
15,425 km of pipelines, 18 PJ of storage and 90 TJ/d processing plant[(1)]
-
Peak gas demand in Victorian is around two times that of electricity
-
The energy stored at APA’s Mondarra gas storage facility is the equivalent to 25,000 South Australian big batteries
Proven Reliable Infrastructure
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99.9%
Gas transmission nominations delivery
440 MW of gas-fired power generation
- Diamantina Power Station is roughly half the emission intensity of the Queensland electricity generation[(2)]
243 km of electricity transmission
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>97%
Gas transmission compressors average reliability
-
Murray Link remains the world’s longest underground power transmission system
-
342 MW of wind generation and
149 MW of solar generation
- Badgingarra Wind Farm has saved 690,000 tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions since commissioning[(3)]
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98.28%
Availability factor with 810 GWh of renewable energy
Note
-
(1) Includes 100% of assets operated by APA Group, which form part of Energy Investments segment, including SEA Gas and EII.
-
(2) Based on NGER Greenhouse and energy information by designated generation facility 2019-20, Queensland average emission intensity
-
(3) Based on total energy exported since commissioning multiplied by the emissions factor given by the National Greenhouse and Energy Reporting
43
APA Investor Day 26 May 2021
Delivered over $2 billion of energy infrastructure over the past 5 years
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----- Start of picture text -----
Murrin Murrin Compressor Station, WA
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----- Start of picture text -----
Darling downs Solar Farm, QLD
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Reedy Creek Wallumbilla Pipeline, QLD
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----- Start of picture text -----
Badgingarra Wind and Solar Farms, WA
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----- Start of picture text -----
Gruyere Power station and
Yamarna gas pipeline, WA
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----- Start of picture text -----
Emu Downs Solar Farm, WA
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44
APA Investor Day 26 May 2021
Relentless focus on the health, safety and wellbeing of our employees and contractors
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----- Start of picture text -----
18 Total Recordable Injury Frequency Rate (TRIFR) over FY21
15
12
9
Contractor
6
Total
Employee
3
0
Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21
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45
APA Investor Day 26 May 2021
Process safety at the heart of ensuring safe and reliable energy supply
Wallumbilla Gas Hub in Queensland
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----- Start of picture text -----
APA received the 2020 APGA annual safety award
for process safety fundamentals
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46
APA Investor Day 26 May 2021
Utilising technology to ensure operations are safe and efficient
-
Integrated Operations Centre (IOC) – centralised control and contact for all assets and customers
-
$30m invested in technologies
-
Commercial, Operations and Asset Management capability for faster response
-
Threats and vulnerabilities continually assessed; controls aligned to Australian Cyber Security Centre standards and Critical Infrastructure obligations
-
Digital Twin technology
-
Internal pipeline inspection technology
-
APA Grid platform
-
Aerial surveys
Integrated Operations Centre in Spring Hill, Queensland
47
APA Investor Day 26 May 2021
Case study: Pigging the Victorian Transmission System
-
Maintaining safe operation of the Victorian Transmission System (VTS)
-
Pipeline inspections using a bi-directional Pipeline Inspection Gauges (PIG)
-
2km narrow section of VTS
-
Three years of planning, trials and preparation
-
Collaboration across various stakeholder groups
-
APA business units
-
Australian Energy Market Operator
-
Delivery partners and external stakeholders
-
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----- Start of picture text -----
Location of the 2km pipeline section of the VTS
APA's team at the PIG insertion location in South
Melbourne
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48
APA Investor Day 26 May 2021
Transferrable skills and experience to support delivery of APA's diversified energy infrastructure ambitions
Capabilities which are replicable across different energy infrastructure assets
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Operations
Infrastructure development
Commercial and corporate
-
People and Process safety
-
Customer & stakeholder engagement
-
Asset management and planning
-
Asset integrity & life cycle planning
-
Field operations
-
Network management
-
Easement management
-
Operational and information technology
-
IOC (control room), energy nomination and dispatch platforms
-
System modelling – digital twin and operational simulation
-
SCADA engineering / management
-
• Specialist service & support e.g. welding
-
Infrastructure engineering and design including hybrid energy systems
-
Community & stakeholder engagement
-
Environment and heritage management
-
Licencing and approvals
-
Landowner consultation, land access and management
-
Procurement and purchasing
-
Project management and scheduling
-
Construction management
-
Equipment selection, design, installation and management
-
Specialist technical service and support
-
Contract negotiation and management
-
Corporate development
-
Corporate finance
-
Capital funding
-
Financial and regulatory reporting
-
Investment management
-
People resource planning and talent development
-
Information technology and Cyber security
-
Business continuity management
-
Government and regulator relations
-
Legal and compliance
-
Risk management
-
Governance and corporate affairs
49
APA Investor Day 26 May 2021
Positioning APA as an employer of choice
-
Bright Sparks Graduate program: Top 100 Graduate Employer finalist
-
Australian Association of Graduate Employers: Top 40 intern program
-
Apprenticeship programs including partnership with Clontarf Foundation supporting young Aboriginals and Torres Strait Islanders
-
Creating jobs for local communities
Rob Wheals with 2020 graduates
-
High performance training and development
-
Diversity and inclusion targets
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APA graduates during a strategy exercise
50
APA Investor Day 26 May 2021
Accelerating momentum for improved sustainability outcomes
-
Sustainability roadmap developed
-
Net Zero ambition embedded in our strategy
-
Positive Regulatory Impact Statement (RIS) outcome
-
Foundation Energy Charter signatory
-
Diversity and Inclusion targets established
-
Expanded stakeholder engagement approach
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----- Start of picture text -----
Government and
Environment regulators
Stakeholder
engagement
Community and Customers and
social performance suppliers
Employees and
contractors
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51
APA Investor Day 26 May 2021
Case study: building the West Coast Grid / Northern Goldfields Interconnect
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----- Start of picture text -----
Carnarvon Basin
• Detailed Customers • Embedded key social
performance indicators TGP
environmental
surveys completed Environment and PPS NGP
suppliers
• Pipeline licence and Government • Advanced stage
engagement with Western
regulatory referrals submitted and Communities landholders and local GGP Australia
regulators government authorities
GHEM
MWP
• Cultural Heritage surveys Culture Social impact • Relationship agreements NGI YGP
completed heritage being negotiated with Perth MMGP EGP
MGPSF
• Traditional Owner Traditional Owners Basin
EDWSF
including mechanisms to
engagement about site BWSF KKP
access employment and
recommendations and
PGP
business opportunities Perth
protections
Map of Northern Goldfields Interconnect
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52
APA Investor Day 26 May 2021
Adam Watson Chief Financial Officer Capital management strategy
53
APA Investor Day 26 May 2021
Capital management strategy focused on maximising security holder returns
The Capital Management Strategy review has resulted in a number of modifications:
-
Established investment hurdle rates by asset class
-
Execution of the liability management exercise
-
Revision of the Treasury Risk Management Policy
-
A more flexible Distribution Policy
-
Market guidance focus on distributions (cash generation)
-
Enhanced investor communication
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----- Start of picture text -----
Capital Access to
Allocation Capital
Security- Risk
holder Manage-
returns ment
Market
Engage-
ment
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54
APA Investor Day 26 May 2021
APA remains competitive and disciplined in its ambitions for growth
Assessment completed to ensure appropriate funding of various asset classes (renewables, electricity transmission, gas pipelines, power generation, U.S. energy infrastructure):
- Cost of capital
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- Capital structures
Investment hurdle rates established to reflect:
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----- Start of picture text -----
Forward
Cost of capital Gearing and
looking cost of
for each asset credit rating
debt and asset
class based on metrics based
beta
risk profile on risk profile
assumptions
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Enhanced corporate models and investment assessment tools
55
APA Investor Day 26 May 2021
Strong demand for APA capital and capacity to create value
Debt maturity profile as at 30 April 2021
Low interest rates and strong support for APA credit provided an opportunity to proactively address the $2.2 billion of debt scheduled to mature in CY2022 (liability management exercise):
-
Improved Free Cash Flow (~5 cps over next 12 months, inclusive of tax benefit)[(1)]
-
NPV accretive despite $148m redemption costs
-
Lower average cost of debt (5.2% to 4.8%)
-
Extended the average term to maturity of debt portfolio from 6 to 8 years
-
No material bond maturities until March 2025
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Undrawn committed facilities Bank borrowings DCM bonds USD DCM bonds
50 536
650
1,428 1,396
500 879 1,109 928 1,140 1,018
735 742 774
133
50 381 452
200
FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25 FY26 FY27 FY28 FY29 FY30 FY31 FY32 FY33 FY34 FY35 FY36
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| Metrics(2) | Dec 2020 proforma(3) |
Dec 2020 | Dec 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Funds from Operations to Net Debt(3) 12.1% 12.1% 11.4% Funds from Operations to interest(3) 3.4 times 3.2 times 3.1 times Average interest rate applying to drawn debt 4.7% 5.18% 5.35% Interest rate exposure fixed or hedged 100% 100% 99.0% Average maturityof drawn debt 8.3 years 6.1 years 6.5 years |
Notes:
-
(1) Includes a once-off tax deduction for the transactions.
-
(2) For the purposes of these calculations, the US 144A Notes maturing in 2025 and 2035, the EUR MTN maturing in 2027 and the GBP MTN maturing in 2030 were retained in or swapped to USD denominated debt obligations at issuance. These have been translated into AUD at the prevailing FX rate at inception (US 144A Notes at AUD:USD=0.7879, EUR MTN and GBP MTN at AUD:USD=0.7772) and are being managed as a "designated hedge" with the highly probable Wallumbilla Gladstone Pipeline USD revenues.
-
(3) APA calculations. The proforma excludes the once-off redemption costs of $148m from interest expense. APA Investor Day 26 May 2021
56
Distribution policy balances strong investor returns whilst maintaining capital to fund organic growth
-
APA targeting a payout ratio of approximately 60-70% of its Free Cash Flow:
-
Maintenance (stay-in-business) capex fully funded from cash flows
-
Supports appropriate level of funding for organic growth capex
-
Provides flexibility to consistently grow distributions, regardless of potential short-term fluctuations to earnings or cash flows
-
Comfortably supports BBB / Baa2 credit ratings
-
Change to the payout ratio denominator :
-
Replacing Operating Cash Flow (OCF) with Free Cash Flow (FCF)
-
FCF more aligned with peers, providing investors with a comparable benchmark
-
FCF broadly calculated as OCF less maintenance (stay-inbusiness) capex
Historical cash flow and payout ratios
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----- Start of picture text -----
80%
62.0% 61.7%
60% 57.1%
54.6%
53.6%
40%
53.6% 54.8% 53.8%
49.8% 48.6%
20%
0%
FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20
OCF Payout ratio FCF Payout ratio
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57
APA Investor Day 26 May 2021
Market guidance to be aligned with peers and focussed on investor returns
FY21 guidance reconfirmed:
-
Distributions per security of 51.0 cps
-
Underlying EBITDA of between $1,625 million to $1,665 million
-
Underlying net interest of between $490 million to $500 million
-
The above excludes potential impacts as a result of Significant Items[(1,2,3)] and liability management[(4)]
-
Distributions a key value Challenges of accounting based guidance: •
-
driver for APA securityholders: Changes to accounting standards[(1)] • Reflects focus on • Non-cash fair value adjustments[(2)] sustainable cash • Liability management impacts[(4)]
-
generation • Driving the right behaviours to ensure
-
• Ignores non-cash APA invests for long term value
-
impacts to earnings creation
-
APA will move to providing only distribution per security guidance from FY22, representing the key value driver for Securityholders, consistent with market peers
-
Growth capex targets and other operating metrics will continue to be communicated
Notes:
-
1) Accounting standards changes related to the treatment for SaaS/ Cloud based investments
-
2) Accounting non-cash fair value adjustment on mark-to-market impacts on renewables portfolio 3) Carry value impairment – Orbost Gas Processing Plant
-
4) Liability management incurred an early redemption costs of $148 million
58
APA Investor Day 26 May 2021
A capital strategy that supports our growth ambitions
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----- Start of picture text -----
Regulated/contracted Regulated/contracted
Gas Infrastructure Electricity Infrastructure
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Renewables & Firming
Distribution policy balances organic growth capex funding with strong investor returns
Low cost of capital and competitive investment hurdle rates
Investment grade credit metrics
provides prudent levels of gearing and access to capital markets
Treasury Insightful policies communications ensures strong levels ensuring strong investor of liquidity and engagement minimises risk
59
APA Investor Day 26 May 2021
Q&A session #2
Ask a question Please click on Or Press *1
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60
APA Investor Day 26 May 2021
Strategy and capability to deliver our vision
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Refreshed strategy Growth opportunities Technology and innovation Aligned with purpose and vision and Energy infrastructure in New energy infrastructure targeted at energy infrastructure Australia and North America solutions (Pathfinder Program) growth markets Strengthening capability Strong balance sheet Net Zero ambition People, systems, processes, Investment grade credit Responsible energy solutions organisational design, metrics, disciplined investment operating models and strong investor returns
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61
APA Investor Day 26 May 2021
Yoko Kosugi General Manager Investor Relations & Analytics
M: +61 438 010 332 E: [email protected] www.apa.com.au
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