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Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. — Investor Presentation 2011
Mar 22, 2011
10425_rns_2011-03-22_d9846c2c-c253-4735-9a7a-f5af46b2caa7.pdf
Investor Presentation
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Investor Discussion Pack
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Graham Hodges
Deputy CEO
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AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED
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ANZ has established a strong business foundation
A clear company wide focus on our super regional strategy:
| • | Organised our business around three key geographies and our customers | p. 2-18 |
|---|---|---|
| • | Market Update - Three months to 31 December 2010 | p. 19-23 |
| • | Maintaining strong businesses in our home markets: | |
| • Australia | p. 24-36 | |
| • New Zealand | p. 47-51 | |
| • | Investing for strong organic growth in Asia | p. 37-46 |
| • | A redefined and clear focus in our global institutional business | p. 52-65 |
| • | Supported by a strong capital and funding position | p. 66-74 |
| • | Strengthened governance and risk systems and an improving credit outlook | p. 75-82 |
| • | Economic updates | p. 83-102 |
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Investor Discussion acP k
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AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED
Overview and strategy
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ANZ is structured by Geography & Segment
Asia acP ific, urope E & America (APEA)
Retail
Commercial
(including Wealth Institutional
(emerging)
partnerships)
Australia
Retail Wealth Commercial Institutional
New Zealand
Retail Wealth Commercial Institutional
Institutional is a global business
Overview & Strategy 3
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Super Regional - driving long term growth and differentiated returns
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Denotes two way merchandise trade flow [3 ]
Forecast GDP growth [1 ] (% p.a, 2011-14) FDI inward flow [2] (USDb, 2009)
(2009)
KR
EU 6
4 . 0% US
1.6% JP
12 2.7%
UK 1.6%
2.3%
TW Asia-US
3
CN 78 5.1% Trade: US$0.8trn
8.7%
HK
48
Asia-Europe IN 5.0%
Trade: US$1.0trn 35
8.5%
VN
8
7.1%
TH
5 Pacific-Asia [4]
4.5%
Trade: US$6bn
PHI
2
4.6%
Intra-Asia MLY
1
Trade:$1.6trn 5.0%
PNG
0.4
5 . 0%
SG IND
17 5
4.6% 5.9% AUS
23
3.2% Aus/NZ-Pacific [5]
Trade: US$6bn
Aus/NZ-Asia
Trade: US$235bn
NZ
0.2
2.9%
Source: 1. Global Insight; 2. Bloomberg; 3. WTO; 4. IMF; 5. ABS and Statistics NZ.
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Overview & Strategy
4
Coherent strategy – driving competitive advantage
Geographic opportunity
-
Footprint - exposure to Asia’s more rapid growth
-
Growing financial services requirements
-
Regional connectivity
-
Strong domestic markets and businesses
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Cross-border customer focus
-
Regional customer insights
-
Resources , agribusiness , infrastructure
-
Trade and investment flows
-
Migration/people flows, education Overview & Strategy
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Building Super Regional capabilities
-
Bench strength/international talent
-
Innovative product capability
-
‘Throw and catch’ capability and culture
-
Enabling technology and operations hubs
-
Global core brand, regional reach
-
Governance and risk management
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Delivering Super Regional performance momentum
OUTPERFORM AND TRANSFORM
OUTPERFORM
RESTORE
-
Institutional growth
-
Stronger risk and governance processes
-
Increased international banking experience
-
Balance sheet and capital management
-
Move from a presence to a real business in Asia
-
14% of Group Earnings
-
Beachhead in Greater China, SE Asia, India, Mekong
-
� M a nta n strong omest c i i d i franchises
-
Increased management bench strength
-
Create hub foundation
-
Improving balance sheet composition
-
Improved funding diversity
Realise full potential of Super Regional aspiration
Capturing value: • To Asia OUTPERFORM
-
Within Asia
-
From Asia
2007-2009
2009-2010
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2011-2017
Overview & Strategy
6
Realising the full potential of Super Regional
-
The more mature our business, the greater our opportunities
-
Increasing our footprint, customers and access to trade, liquidity and investment flows
-
Regional connectivity will deliver additional revenue into Australia, New Zealand, Asia and the Pacific
-
Hubs provide a lower and more flexible cost base – access deeper pools of talent, provide better service with lower risk
-
Technology roadmap focused on customer facing (e.g. internet banking, goMoney) and cross-border systems (e.g. FX, Cash Management)
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Overview & Strategy
7
Realising the full potential of Super Regional
-
Continue to build depth in international management and banking experience
-
Well defined succession planning
-
Remuneration and incentives aligned to delivery of strategy and management of risk
-
Risk management as a core competency
-
Increased expertise across the risk function
-
Comprehensive set of asset writing strategies
-
Product and segment expertise – focus on sectors we know
-
Customer driven rather than product focused
-
Lower balance sheet intensity
-
Greater balance sheet diversity
-
Reduced reliance on interest income
-
Funding flexibility
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Overview & Strategy
8
- Growth levers and M&A organic, partnerships
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Continued Focus on Organic Growth
Leveraging Super Regional connectivity
Increasing productivity
Focus on core customers
Managing the value of ANZ’s
Selective M&A opportunities
Partnerships
• Deliverin g access to attractive markets /
•
segments Dislocation in global markets continuing
• Linking partnership customers to ANZ’s to create opportunities
international network • Consistent M&A disciplines – on
• Actively managing the portfolio to strategy, delivers value, executable
op ti m se s i t ra t eg c pos i iti on ng i
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Overview & Strategy
9
Building a genuinely pan regional business - connectivity provides a competitive advantage
Linked through flows of trade, capital and population
Growth in trade and capital flows between Asia and Australia are tracking 17% to 25% pa
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Surplus savings
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Key focus is to bridge gaps across the region: Asia generates surplus liquidity , Australia and NZ generate hard and soft commodities
Over 50% of domestic customers d epen d on s a or over A i f 25% o f their business
Strategy extends beyond banking Australia / NZ customers into Asia, we are actively facilitating intra-Asia cash management, trade and markets transactions for Asian customers
There is approximately $60b in direct foreign investment into Australia f rom th e s an reg on A i i Commodity consumers Commodity producers Migration & Investment Natural resources account for $80b or 30% of Australian and New Zealand exports
Soft commodities account for $40b or 15% of Australian and New Zealand exports
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Overview & Strategy
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Strategy is supported by a disciplined approach to M&A – RBS Asia acquisition
| • Acquired RBS¹ businesses in six countries, aligned with current strategy: |
Country | Business | **Branches ** | **Customers ** | Deposits | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taiwan | Retail | 21 | ~1.3m | ~US $2.5b | ||
| l l h l � Retai , wea t & commercia businesses in Taiwan, Singapore Indonesia² and Hong Kong; � Institutional businesses in Taiwan, the Philippines and Vietnam |
Commercial Institutional |
& 16 licenses |
||||
| Hong Kong | Retail Commercial |
5 | ~30k | ~US$1.4b | ||
| • Purchase price US$50m (˜A$60m) premium to fully provided recapitalised net tangible book value³. Equates to ˜1.1 x net tangible book value |
||||||
| Singapore | Retail Commercial |
5 | ~350k | ~US$1.8b | ||
| Indonesia | Retail | 18 | ~450k | ~US$700m | ||
| • Transaction includes ˜US$7bn (A$9bn) deposits, ˜US$3bn (A$4bn) loans,˜2m affluent and emerging affluent customers, 49 branches |
Commercial | |||||
| Vietnam | Institutional | - | ~60 | ~US$20m | ||
| Philippines | Institutional | - | ~100 | ~US4m |
1. Transaction is largely a sale of assets and liabilities, not companies, of businesses held by ABNAMRO mainly through branches, RBS will retain a presence in some countries.
2. The Indonesian retail, wealth and commercial businesses will be acquired through ANZ’s 99% owned subsidiary ANZ Panin.
3. Based on RWA calculated by ANZ under a Basel II standardised approach as at 31 May 2009.
4. On a fully provided recapitalised basis
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Overview & Strategy
11
Strategy is supported by a disciplined approach to M&A - ING Australia and New Zealand Joint Ventures
-
Acquired ING Groep’s (ING) 51% interest in ING Australia and ING NZ (the JVs) for $1,760m [1]
-
~ 11x multiple of normalised 2008 earnings[2]
-
1.2x multiple of embedded value (EV) [3]
-
Cash EPS accretive in FY10 [4]
-
Delivered immediate scale – FUM, In-force premiums, and distribution
-
~$42b of FUM, $1.3b of in-force premiums
-
~1,700 aligned dealer group advisers (Aus)
-
Historically around 2/3[rd] of operating income from wealth mana g ement , one third from risk
-
Australia – No. 3 in life insurance [5] , No. 5 in retail funds mgt, largest aligned adviser force
Australia
Acquire d IN G' s 51 % in IN G Austra ia l manufacturing and distribution of investment life & GI products, the Equity owned advisor networks and administration platforms
Australia FUM: $39b
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M ezzan ne i 4%
Oasis Wrap 13% Wholesale 1%
OneAnswer Mastertrust 40%
Employer Super 27%
Other Retail15%
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-
New Zealand – No. 5 in life insurance [5] largest KiwiSaver provider, No. 2 funds manager
-
Funded from existing resources, capital impact ~(70)bps, pro forma Tier 1 post acquisition 9.5% [6]
New Zealand
Acquired ING ' s 51% in ING New Zealand: Wealth Management and Retail, Wholesale and Property Investment Management
-
Transaction completed 30[th] November 2009
-
Announced OnePath branding August 2010
1 Purchase price. Separately ANZ made a payment of $55m to acquire ING’s share of the NZ Diversified Yield Fund (DYF) & Regular Income Fund (RIF) redeemable preference shares 2 Earnings for the year to 30 September 2008 incorporating normalised long term expectations 3 As at 31 December 2008 4 Based on current share price 5 By in-force premium share 6 As at 30 June 2009 adjusted for $2.2b SPP and impact of RBS acquisition
Overview & Strategy
12
Strategy is supported by a disciplined approach to M&A - Landmark Loan and Deposit book
Overview of transaction
Overview of Landmark
-
Acquisition of Landmark Financial Services (LFS) loan and deposit book rom AWB’s rural f service business Landmark:
-
Net book value on fully provided, nil premium basis
-
~$2.2b lending assets & ~$0.4b deposits
-
Leading Australian agribusiness company, o ff ering merchandise, ertiliser, arm services, f f wool, livestock, finance, insurance and real estate
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Largest distributor of merchandise and fertiliser, with ~2,000 employees servicing ~ 100 , 000 c li en t s across over 400 ou tl e t s
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~10,000 banking customers
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~100 Relationship Management Staff
Acquired the LFS loan and deposit books, the lending and deposit taking divisions of Landmark
-
~45 Support staff
-
ANZ / Landmark to enter exclusive customer referral agreement:
-
Access to ~ 100 , 000 Landmark rural service customers (~85% of Australian farming entities)
-
Access through extensive network
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Finance
Fertiliser Insurance
Landmark
Real
Livestock
Estate
Merchandise
Farm
Wool
Se rvices
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Overview & Strategy
13
ANZ has continued to invest for growth notwithstanding recent tougher economic conditions
Revenue and Expenses
Net Profit by region
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17% Pro orma F
Basis [1]
12%
12%
10%
9%
8% 8% 7% 8%
6%
FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10
Revenue Expenses
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Provision charges
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Net Profit after tax [2]
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1. Pro forma basis assumes ING Australia and New Zealand, Landmark and Royal bank of Scotland Asia acquisitions took effect from 1 October 2008 and also adjusts for exchange rate movements which have impacted the FY10 results.
2. FY06-07 presented on a cash basis, FY08-10 presented on an underlying basis adjusted to reflect the ongoing operations of the Group.
Overview & Strategy
14
Group loans and deposits
Group Customer Deposits (A$b)
Group Net Loans and Advances (including acceptances) (A$b)
Loan to Deposit Ratio ep S 20 1 0 – 14 0%
Loan to Deposit Ratio Sep 2006 – 171%
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1
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1
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1. Includes Wealth and Other
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Overview & Strategy
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Net loans and advances[1] by geography
| Australia FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 |
Australia FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 |
Australia FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 |
Australia FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 |
New Zealand (NZD) FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 |
New Zealand (NZD) FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 |
New Zealand (NZD) FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 |
New Zealand (NZD) FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 |
APEA (USD) FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 |
APEA (USD) FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 |
APEA (USD) FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 |
APEA (USD) FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY07 | FY08 | FY09 | FY10 | FY07 | FY08 | FY09 | FY10 | FY07 | FY08 | FY09 | FY10 | |
| A$b Growth |
13% | 15% | (1%) | 6% | 13% | 11% | (1%) | (1%) | 31% | 99% | (14%) | 45% |
2
1. NLAs include acceptances 2. Retail includes Wealth and Group Centre
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Overview & Strategy
16
Customer deposits by geography
| Australia | Australia | Australia | Australia | Australia | New Zealand (NZD) | New Zealand (NZD) | New Zealand (NZD) | New Zealand (NZD) | New Zealand (NZD) | APEA (USD) FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 |
APEA (USD) FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 |
APEA (USD) FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 |
APEA (USD) FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY07 | FY08 | FY09 | FY10 | FY07 | FY08 | FY09 | FY10 | FY07 | FY08 | FY09 | FY10 | |||
| A$b Growth |
20% | 12% | 14% | 7% | 7% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 26% | 69% | 31% | 72% | ||
1
1. Retail includes Wealth and Other
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Overview & Strategy
17
Diversified lending portfolio, weighted to secured mort a e ortfolio g g p
Net Loans and Advances (including acceptances) by product line
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(A$b) 361
1 (A$b) 172
1
47
(A$b) 90
52
1. Includes Wealth.
Overview & Strategy 18
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Investor Discussion acP k
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AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED
Market Update Three months to 31 December 2010
Market update – Three months to 31 December 2010 Profit & Loss
-
Unaudited underlying profit after tax[1] for the three months to 31 December 2010 of approximately $1.4 billion, 27% above the prior corresponding period (PCP)
-
Profit before provisions (PBP) grew 7% PCP to $2.3 billion - up 1% on the last quarter of FY2010 (QOQ). Adjusting for foreign exchange (FX) and acquisitions, PBP grew 6% PCP and 2.6% QOQ
-
Continued stren g th in the Australian Dollar meant that income , at $ 4.2 billion, increased over 2% FX adjusted QOQ with growth in all divisions except New Zealand. FX impacts produced a 2% negative impact on underlying profit after tax both PCP and QOQ
-
ANZ has continued to invest for growth, particularly in Institutional and in Asia. Revenue/expense jaws were neutral QOQ on an FX adjusted basis
-
Group margins (excluding Global Markets) showed a small increase across the quarter but the rate of growth has slowed. Higher average funding costs and - -
-
intense competition , especially for deposits , largely offset the flow through of re pricing in New Zealand and product mix impacts
-
The provision charge of $294 million is 48% lower PCP and 22% lower QOQ.
1 Profit has been adjusted to exclude non cash and significant items to arrive at underlying profit, the result for the ongoing operations of the Group
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Market update – Three months to 31 December 2010 Balance Sheet & Asset Qualit y
-
Group lending grew 2% QOQ (2% FX adjusted) driven by growth in Australia, in both Retail and Institutional, and in APEA across all business lines
-
Group deposit volumes rose 3% QOQ (4% FX adjusted) primarily driven by Australia and APEA
-
Total gross impaired assets declined by $209 million QOQ reflecting a decrease in new im p aired loans and NPCCDs[1] and the sale of $ 720 million of Centro debt. The inclusion of Oswal in restructured items led to an increase in new impaired assets; however ANZ continues to expect a full recovery in relation to this exposure
-
Provision coverage remains high with the total provision coverage ratio at 2.11% and the collective provision coverage ratio at 1.35%
-
An economic overlay of $35 million was added at the end of the first quarter covering the flooding in December. The Group is still assessing the impact of the more recent severe weather events; however the total provision charge for FY11 is expected to still be broadly in line with the average of consensus estimates .
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.
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1 Non Performing Commitments, Contingencies and Derivatives
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Market update – Three months to 31 December 2010 Business Update1
Australia
-
Retail deposits grew above system (up 3% versus system growth of 2.3%)
-
Lending growth was dominated by Retail (up 2.5%) and Institutional (up 3.5%) with Commercial lending flat
-
Mortgage lending grew at around 1.5 times system during the period
-
Margins are tracking broadly in line with the average for 2010.
Asia Pacific, Europe & America (APEA)
-
R eta il an d W ea t l h b us nesses are eg nn ng to u i b i i b ild momentum post t h e integration of the RBS businesses during 2010 and the Institutional business buildout is also progressing well
-
The balance sheet has continued to expand with lending up over 11% to US$27 billion and customer deposits up 6.5% to US$49 billion.
1 All comparisons are QoQ unless otherwise noted
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Market update – Three months to 31 December 2010 Business Update1
New Zealand
-
Lending was flat while deposits grew 4.2%[2]
-
Pricing benefits from the roll - off of fixed rate loans and switching to variable rate loans continues to flow through, however the margin benefit has been largely offset by strong deposit competition
-
Variable loans comprised 49% of the mortgage portfolio at the end of December 2010 compared to 26% at the end of 2009
-
ANZ New Zealand has begun to put in place plans to improve operational efficiency across the business and better leverage the Group’s super regional strategy
-
It is expected that a one-off charge of approximately $120 million will be incurred in the first half 2011 to fund the integration of IT systems and related costs which w ill b e exc u l d e d f rom n U d er y ng ro l i P fit .
Institutional
-
Lending increased around 6% (FX adjusted) with over half of the growth from Asia and the remainder largely in Australia . Deposits increased 3% (FX adjusted)
-
Underlying margins were marginally lower excluding Global Markets
-
Global Markets revenue grew around 7% QOQ
-
Global Markets business is driving greater diversification across revenue streams; consequently , there was an uplift in the proportion of revenues from both the FX and Commodities businesses during the quarter. The Capital Markets business experienced increased deal flow particularly from Asia.
1 All comparisons are QoQ unless otherwise noted
2 In NZD
23
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Investor Discussion acP k
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AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED
Australia Division
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– Australia Division high value strategy has delivered
Pro Forma Basis[2] Australia Division Revenue & Expense growth[1] Profit Before Provisions growth
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Pro Forma Basis[2]
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Provisions
Net Profit after tax
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1. 2005 to 2008 based on “Personal Division” structure, 2009 and 2010 based on “Australia Division” structure,
2. Pro forma basis assumes ING Australia and New Zealand and Landmark a acquisitions took effect from 1 October 2008.
Australia
25
- Clear focus and principles , alignment discipline
-
Future-proof business •
-
1 Build for the long-term architecture Investment selection, •
-
2 Invest in strategies, not projects prioritisation and governance • Combine people, process, data and
-
Customer proposition and
-
3 technology to deliver ‘Uncomplicated experience an d P eop e-s l h ape d’ exper ence i
-
• Embed stability and innovate from the
-
4 Technology development ‘ - ’ front end
-
• Manage change through ‘bite-sized’
-
5 Business execution initiatives to reduce delivery risk
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Australia
26
– Retail positioned for continued growth
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Award winning distribution … driving customer preference
(%) Future trial intention, non-bank customers
network [1] …
814 Branches
2,528 ATMs 20
6 types of specialists across
our network 16
24/7 Contact Centre
Innovative digital and 12
mobile channels [2]
Peer 1
8
… with market leading products
Peer 3
YoY Growth 09-10
Peer 2
Market share System multiple
4
Deposits 13.2% 1.0x
Mortgages 12.3% 1.3x 0
Consumer finance 18.9% 1.1x Dec-09 09 Jan-10 10 Dec-10
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1. Canstar Cannex, Australia’s number one for Customer Satisfaction with distribution
2. Winner FIIA 2011 Asia Pacific Innovation Award (Mobile Innovation)
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Australia
27
Customer experience and regional networks underpin competitive advantage
Strategic priorities
Target higher-value 1 customers
-
Continue to ac q uire more affluent customers via targeted, relevant propositions (e.g. Visa Signature; A-Z Reviews)
-
Affluent market share +0.9% 12 mths to Dec 2010
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- D e li ver ‘U ncomp li cate d & P eop e-s l h ape d’ proposition – easy and empowering
Deliver a distinctive 2 Retail customer proposition
-
Continue investment in brand and delivery
-
Differentiate through customer service and insight
Become the bank of 3 choice for migrants
-
Leverage Super Regional network to capture Asian migrant and student flows
-
Pan-regional migrants make up ~20% of all new to market customers
4
Continuously manage costs and productivity
-
Continue migration to lower cost online channels
-
Invest in increased automation (e.g. Retail Lending Automation initiative)
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Australia
28
Success will deliver consistent profitable market share growth over the long term
Sustained organic share growth …
Traditional banking market share (Index, Jan 2008=100)
… through peer leading customer advocacy Net promoter score
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120
115
110
105
100
95
90
2008 2009 2010 2008 2009 2010
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… and above weight trial intention
(%) transactional account trial intention
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30
25
20
15
10
5
0
2008 2009 2010
Peer 1 Peer 2 Peer 3
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Australia
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… with significant upside potential
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(% of FUM) traditional banking share of wallet
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60
56
52
48
44
2008 2009 2010
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Case study: Leveraging regional retail connectivity through ANZ Migrant Banking channel
By 2015 15% of the Australian population will be of Asian origin and represent over 22% of the acquirable pool of new to bank customers
-
Significant acquisition opportunities exist in pre-arrival and new-arrival migrant segments
-
ANZ’s pan-regional network ensures we are well placed to identify and assist clients ahead of their planned migration
-
A specialist Migrant Banking channel developed to ensure and seamless referral process across regions
-
Offering supported by a new ‘Moving to Australia’ online portal and account opening tool
-
Currently have 18 specialist migrant branches and an additional 340 branches with targeted language capabilities, initiatives underway to increase the number of specialist branches during 2011.
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Shanghai
- ANZ Relationship Manager identifies referral opportunity for a client relocating to Australia for work.
Example
ANZ Migrant Banking Referral provided to the ANZ migrant banking team.
ANZ Migrant Banking specialist:
-
Determines specific language and financial needs of client
-
Commences account opening and other necessary processes
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Chinatown branch Haymarket, Sydney
-
Asian banking manager is introduced to client pre - departure.
-
Meeting is arranged to occur upon arrival to finalise banking arrangements and address any other needs.
-
Identifies appropriate branch to be primary relationship point for client.
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Australia
30
– Wealth Integrating the portfolio
Over 2.5m customers
Over ,2 200 Financial Planners nationwide, through owned and aligned dealer group network 10 Private Banking suites
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Market share position 2010
Individual Risk Insurance #3
Superannuation & Investments #5
Private Bank #3
Investment Lending #5
Online/Direct Broking #2
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Strategy is to combine all existing wealth businesses to deliver differentiated, tiered offerings to key customer segments
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Insurance
Superannuation & Investments
Private Bank
Aligned
Dealer
Groups
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Australia
31
Large upside and diversified income streams
ANZ has the second largest adviser footprint …
Financial Planner Footprint
(% share of Planners)
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30
25
25
20
16 16
15 13
11
10
10 9
5
0
Peer 1 ANZ Peer 2 Peer 3 Peer 4 Peer 5 Others
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… with strong momentum in key business lines
Individual Risk Inflows
(%; New Annual Premiums / Inforce Premiums)
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30
28 ANZ
26
P eer 4
24
Peer 5
Peer 3
22
Peer 6
Peer 1
20
Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10
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Jun-10 Sep-10
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Superannuation and Managed Investments to provide growth …
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Super & Investments Inflows
(%; Inflow / FUM)
12
Peer 3
10
8
Peer 5
6 Peer 4
Peer 1
4
Peer 6
ANZ
2
Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10
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Australia
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… with ANZ penetration a key opportunity
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Wealth
89%
89 % Opportunity
11% ANZ customers with an ANZ Wealth product
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32
Setting the foundations for future growth
Strategic priorities
-
Ste p chan g e in ANZ
-
1 customer base penetration
-
Embed wealth offerings into ANZ customer propositions and channels
-
Develop simple superannuation and insurance products
Capitalise on opportunities presented 2 by regulatory and market changes
-
Continue to capture Superannuation Guarantee (SG) flows (with potential increase from 9% - 12% for SG)
-
Enhance limited scope advice offering
-
Leverage our aligned dealer group distribution network
Leverage combined wealth business to 3 enhance revenue and decrease costs
-
Deliver a fully integrated wealth business to realise revenue and cost synergies between business units
-
Invest in increasing automation and online self-service capabilities to improve efficiency and cost-to-serve
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-
Deliver future wealth platform solution
-
Enhance core
-
4 capabilities for future growth
-
Deliver tiered offerings to customer segments
-
Build our capabilities to support possible extension into Asia
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Australia
33
A differentiated Commercial Banking proposition Customer segments range from … regional presence enables transactional to high-touch … ‘easy’ connection for customers
… regional presence enables ‘easy’ connection for customers
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P a n-A s i a n cou n t ri es wi t h a n ANZ Co mm e r c i a l p r ese n ce
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Customer segments
Turnover $0 $5m $40m Small Business Business Banking
Specialist business
Agribusiness Auto Finance
Commercial Australia is the cornerstone of an integrated regional offering, providing customers with access to expert advice and solutions in 15 markets across Asia and NZ
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Australia
34
Consistent customer growth and advocacy
Customer Satisfaction[1]
Trial Intention
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(%) (‘000s; Main Bank consideration)
7.5 32
30
Peer 1
Peer 3 28
ANZ
7 ANZ
Peer 1 26
Peer 2
Peer 3
Peer 2 24
6.5 22
Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10
Customer Acquistion [1] FY11 momentum
(000 s; M a n an i B k R e at ons l i hi ps ) Commercial Bank
30 • Customer numbers up 6% [2]
• Lending growth of 2.5% vs. system of 1.0% [3]
25
Small Business Segment
20 ANZ • Number of new applications approved up 29% [4]
15 Business Banking Segment
Peer 1 • New Lending FUM approvals up 34% [4]
Peer 2
10
Peer 3 • Trade finance sales calls up 30% [4]
5 Agribusiness Segment
Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 • Increased the number of accounts opened by acquired
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- Increased the number of accounts opened by acquired Landmark customers by 16%[5]
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1. Source: DBM; 2. 12 months to Dec-10; 3. Source: APRA Monthly Banking Statistics, Bank Lending to Non-Financial Institutions, Sep-10 to Dec-10; 4. Sep-09 to Dec-09 vs. Sep-10 to Dec-10; 5. Feb-10 to Dec-10
Australia
35
Case stud : Buildin re ional connectivit y g g y
ANZ’s regional capability connects customers and creates revenue opportunities. The following is one example out of the 169 referrals made in the first quarter:
B us ness an i B ki ng e a R l ti ons hi p Manager also identifies trade requirements and connects client with a Trade Finance Specialist who arranges a further $5.5m in facilities.
Customer Indonesia RM
Australia RM
Trade Finance Specialist
ANZ Commercial Asia Presence ANZ Commercial Australia ANZ Commercial presence in 14 Access to 1.5k frontline staff across: Asian markets with access to 281 Commercial frontline staff • 814 branches • 202 business centres • China • Indonesia • Vietnam • Hong Kong • Malaysia • Taiwan Specialists in: • South Korea • Thailand • Philippines • Agribusiness • Japan • India • Laos • Property • Singapore • Cambodia • Asset Finance
ANZ Institutional Expertise
Leverage ANZ Institutional’s Asian Trade Finance and Markets expertise Best Trade Bank in Trade Finance House of the Year ( ’08 , ’09 , ’10 ) Australia & the Pacific (2009)
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Australia
36
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Investor Discussion acP k
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AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED
The Asia Pacific Europe & America Division
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Deep onshore presence and strong network model delivers connectivit to clients y
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Franchise
Franchise Markets
Network
Core markets for Institutional , Commercial , Retail & Wealth Hubs
• Greater China
•
Greater Mekong [1]
• India
• Indonesia
•
Malaysia
• Pacific
Regional Business Hubs Greater China
(33)
• Singapore • Hong Kong
Greater Mekong
India (1) (31)
Institutional Network markets
Malaysia
Pacific (60)
Network markets are crucial to delivering pan-regional Singapore (6)
integrated solutions to clients
• Korea • Indonesia (28)
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-
UAE
-
Japan
-
Europe
-
() Number of branches and representative offices in each country
-
Philippines • Ame r ica
-
Thailand
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1. Focus on Vietnam
APEA
38
Since 2008, we have prioritised our build out, enabling us to become a credible competitor
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1H 2008
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Today
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| • • |
|
|---|---|
| South and South East Asia |
Institutional network Pan regional Institutional/commercial business • Formed partnership with AmBank - • Top 4 foreign bank in Indonesia • Largest foreign bank franchise in Greater Mekong • Pre-approval for Indian banking licence • kf |
| NorthEast | AmBan an outperormer • Limited Institutional business • Two branches in China • Pan-regional institutional banking network and customer base |
Asia, Europe & Americas |
• Stand alone Europe & America business • Taiwan –full franchise • China – Branches in top 4 cities + rural bank • Europe & America - Interconnectivity |
| Hubs | • Limited institutional business with few customers • Ex-pat focused Private Bank • Deep on shore Institutional capability • Full Retail and Wealth, Private Bank and Commercial businesses • Full banking license in both Hubs |
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APEA
39
APEA: Balance sheet momentum[1]
APEA loans & deposits (US$b)
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RBS [2] Dep. Loans
2H10 5 . 0 2 . 8
1H10 1.5 0.4
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2010 loan and deposit growth by
region
APEA Asia Pacific Europe &
America
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APEA Current & Saving accounts (CASA) (US$b)
2010 loan & deposit growth by segment
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Includes accounts from
RBS acquisition
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Retai Asia l Retai Paci l f ic Instit. Wea t l h
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1. All figures based on USD financial information. 2. loans and deposits (in US$b) for the RBS acquisition, includes Vietnam, Philippines & Hong Kong in 1H10, Taiwan, Singapore & Indonesia in 2H10 APEA 40
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40
Business strategy allows for efficient use of APEA's liquidity surplus
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Business
Strategy
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-
Focus on affluent and emerging affluent client segments
-
Building a substantive DCM and Cash Management capability and investor client base
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Efficient use of APEA
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This focus allows us to:
-
Fund our own regional growth in a less expensive and susta in ab l e w ay
-
Take Australian and New Zealand clients to the Asian debt markets
-
Opportunity to provide Australian and New Zealand clients w ith di vers ifi e d f un di ng s t ruc t ures, th roug h asse t s wr itt en in Asia
-
Access deep pools of liquidity throughout the region in particular in North East Asia (e.g. Japan, Taiwan)
-
Contribute positively to the Group balance sheet
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APEA
41
Becoming a top four Institutional bank in Asia Pacific
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Customer Segments
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Institutional
MNC / Regional Corporate
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Value Proposition
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-
Be a core wholesale bank to our clients
-
Leveraging our strengths:
-
Regional network and connectivity
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Commercial Emerging Corporate / SME
-
AA rating
-
Deep insights – geographic, industry, client
-
Experienced Asian bankers
-
Out-deliver on service and speed
Financial Institution & Public Sector
- F ocuse d an d d eep pro d uc t capa biliti es – C as h , ra T d e, a R t es an d FX, Commodities and Debt Capital Markets
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APEA
42
We are delivering for Institutional and our clients across Asia and the Pacific
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Regional Connectivity
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European and US Multinational
companies accessing Asia
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Examples
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- Mandated Lead Arrangers with BNP and HSBC
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- US$411m (2.7x launch size)-maiden Asian syndication bond
Asia Funding for Australian and New Zealand institutional clients
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-
R a se i d US$1 , 100 m (3 . 7 x aunc l h s ze i ) , mos t investors new to client
-
Demand driven by companies with strong Asian business links
Asian migration ni to usA trali and New Zealand – trade, investment and people
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- Lead arranged the 3 - year club syndication refinancing facility for LaSalle Investment Management Asia's 50% stake in Westfield Doncaster Retail Mall.
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Intra-Asia rat de and investment
flows
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Intra Pacific and Asia deals
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-
Joint lead managers for NZD225m Kauri bond issuance
-
Demand from New Zealand (59%) and Asia
-
(37%)
-
Lead arranger of US$14b financing for PNG LNG project
-
Largest debt raising in Asia Pacific
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APEA
43
Our Retail & Wealth and Private Bank will deliver local and regional banking to the affluent in each market
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Customer segments
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-
HNW, Affluent & Emerging Affluent
-
Owners , management and staff of our institutional and commercial clients
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Position and Value Proposition
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Retail and Wealth
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-
Three critical value proposition themes – “Understands and recognises me”
-
Based upon relationships, customer advice not product led
-
Accessible across the region – Pan regional Signature Priority Banking branches
-
Banking the family
-
Meeting the holistic financial needs – savings, protection to credit
Private Bank
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-
A trusted advisor with an understanding of personal, professional and business needs
-
Leveraging ANZ’s Institutional and Commercial business to attract customers
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APEA
44
Five our key partnerships expand organic agenda
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Partnership Model
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-
Significant influence
-
Exposure to growth markets and segments we can ’ t currently access
-
ANZ adds value through
-
leadership & management,
-
- product development ,
-
technical expertise and
-
two way customer flows
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-
Double play in high growth, high return market
-
Focus on our key segments (Commercial, Affluent & Emerging Affluent)
-
Scale (Number 5 by assets & deposits) in a closed market
-
ANZ significant driver of leap in performance (market cap increase 56.4% 2008 – 2010)
-
Exposure to Shanghai – Top Commercial / Wealth City in China
-
Focus in Commercial & Retail segments complements our organic focus
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- Solid financial returns for ANZ
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-
Play on fourth largest city Commercial Centre in China
-
Provides exposure in a market in which we do not have a branch presence
-
Potential for long term strategic positioning
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-
Fourth largest credit card issuer
-
Provides access to profitable segment of retail market
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APEA
45
Organic growth a key driver of strategy
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2008 2009 2010 2011 2012+
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Develop strategy and
build business model
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Continue organic
growth with bolt-ons
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Extend and deepen franchise
-
Build substantive Institutional • Organic growth anchored by • Deepen organic growth in business Institutional / Commercial hubs and franchise countries
-
• • Commence build-out of
-
Build Singapore and Hong Rapid build out of Retail and franchise in second wave
-
Kong hubs Wealth and Private Bank markets
-
Build South East Asia business • Complete RBS acquisition and integration
-
Created business model for Retail and Wealth and Private • Continue to focus on liability Bank – scaled up with RBS growth
-
Seek inorganic opportunities to build scale
-
Build risk and governance • Deepen influence in five key model partnerships
-
Obtained licences • Continue to build out technology and operational platforms
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APEA
46
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Investor Discussion acP k
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AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED
The New Zealand Division
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Our strategy is to fully leverage ANZ’s leading market position to deliver superior growth and returns
Leveraging leading market share positions[1]
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Two strong banking brands with a
powerful market presence
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Market share [1]
39% 39%
33%
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39% 39%
33%
Well diversified portfolio, weighted
to Residential Property
Net Loans & Advances including Acceptances
March 2010
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1. RBNZ and TNS New Zealand Ltd Business Finance Monitor 2. Commercial Main Bank Share New Zealand 48
- New Zealand Retail & Wealth
Retail Wealth
-
Pro Forma Basis[2] • • Asset growth flat, system growth Wealth profitability favourably
-
Revenue growth rates subdued im p acted b y ING NZ full ownershi p
-
• Income impacted by removal of • $1.5 billion KiwiSaver FUM with exception fees, margins improving, over 360,000 customers, #1 with costs impacted by marketing growing market share (24.1%)
-
phasing • 19.4% growth in ING Life
-
• Share of new mort g a g e business
-
Expense growth Businesses InForce book increasing in the <80% LVR market and overall mortgage growth in the • ANZ Private Bank named Best later part of 2010 Private Bank in New Zealand[1] Retail Net Profit after Tax Wealth growth rates FY10
-
Provision growth NZD m NPAT growth 2H10
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1. 2010 Euromoney Private Banking Survey
2. Pro forma basis assumes ING Australia and New Zealand, Landmark and Royal bank of Scotland Asia acquisitions took effect from 1 October 2008 and also adjusts for exchange rate movements which have impacted the FY10 results.
New Zealand 49
- New Zealand Commercial
Commercial
Rural
-
Pro Forma Basis[1] • Leveraged Shanghai Expo as an
-
Revenue growth opportunity to connect customers to Asia and demonstrate regional capabilities
-
• Privately Owned Business Barometer consolidates thought leadership and customer connections as market leader
-
Expense growth • Stron g UDC p erformance takin g advantage of relative strength in finance company sector
-
Higher Rural incomes with Fonterra forecasting the third highest dairy payout on record
-
ANZ continues to support customers through this period of increased volatility in product prices
-
Privately Owned Business Barometer consolidates thought leadership and customer connections as market leader
-
Greater focus by borrowers on cash returns and liquidity with many using increase d incomes to re d uce e d b t
-
Provisions are expected to improve as farmers de-leverage
• Clear improvements in customer satisfaction, with ANZ score increasing • from 58% to 69% business management and Provision growth Commercial NPAT Rural NPAT (excl. Rural) NZD m NZD m NPAT growth
- Seminars conducted across the industry covering topics such as governance, large business management and financial understanding for young farmers
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1. Pro forma basis assumes ING Australia and New Zealand, Landmark and Royal bank of Scotland Asia acquisitions took effect from 1 October 2008 and also adjusts for exchange rate movements which have impacted the FY10 results.
New Zealand
50
- New Zealand Institutional
- Pro Forma Basis[2] • ANZ continues to dominate the NZ institutional segment
2010 Financial Performance
- Revenue growth • Second half expense growth d riven y investment in b payments systems
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Trading revenue
down 161m
Customer revenue
down 14m
Strong Customer Relationships
New Zealand Relationship Market Penetration [1] (%)
ANZ Peer 1 Peer 2 Peer 3
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- Connecting customers to Asia and demonstrating ANZ regional capability with Shanghai World Expo and Kiwi Day roadshows in Asia
Expense growth
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- Awarded INFINZ bank of the year for focus on customers and developing growth opportunities for NZ
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- Extending its position as clear market leader with customers (outstanding results across 5 Peter Lee Associate surveys)
NPAT growth
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-
Leadership of Debt Capital Markets and Syndication loan league tables
-
Market leading innovative client solutions , . e g . 1st HKD bond issue, ECA financing
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1. Source: Peter Lee Associates Relationship Banking survey, New Zealand, 2010. Sample size 2009 N=132, 2010 N=135
2. Pro forma basis assumes ING Australia and New Zealand, Landmark and Royal bank of Scotland Asia acquisitions took effect from 1 October 2008 and also adjusts for exchange rate movements which have impacted the FY10 results. New Zealand 51
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Investor Discussion acP k
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AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED
The Institutional Business
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Global Institutional business focus redefined
Foundations laid
Revenue Contribution by Product
-
Strengthened the Institutional Leadership Team , additional team members with international experience
-
Starting to execute the technology and operations roadmap
-
Im p rovin g ca p ital disci p line
-
Exiting non-core businesses
-
Delivering record pre provision profits
-
Substantive progress in remediation completion
Clear goals set
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-
To become the bank of choice for Resources and Infrastructure in the region
-
Building leading cash, trade and markets platforms with capabilities across Australia, NZ and Asia
-
Targeting significant growth in customer relationships
Global Markets Lending Trade & Transaction Banking
- Generating well balanced and sustainable earnings across geographies and segments
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Global Institutional
53
Increased focus on core customers and geographies
Over 3,500 active Institutional and Corporate customers supported by over 5,000 staff
-
C orpora t e an b ki ng cus t omers: t/ over $40 - 400 m
-
• Institutional customers: t/over >$400m
A single global team services customer needs across the network
- Global representation supports customers based in Australia, New Zealand, Asia Pacific, Europe and America geographies
Customer relationship sectors
-
Banking a full range of customers
-
Building dominance in a limited number of segments
Global lines
-
Natural resources
-
Infrastructure Priority segments
-
Agribusiness
-
Financial institutions & public sector
-
Domestic presence in Australia and New Zealand for over 170 years
-
Asian representation commenced over 40 years ago and we now have a presence in 15 Asian markets
-
Institutional regional hub established in Hong Kon g ( centralised su pp ort functions for APEA institutional business)
-
Branches in Europe and North America ensure global network coverage
Other lines
-
P roper t y
-
Diversified industrials
-
Consumer and services
-
Telco’s, media, entertainment and technology
-
Cor p orate Bankin g
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Global Institutional
54
Regional networks, superior insights & service underpin the competitive advantage
Regionally Networked Model
Competing globally requires superior insights and service
-
A lead regional bank servicing clients with pan regional needs
-
A strong regional branch footprint
-
Single platforms for Cash, Trade
-
Offering and Markets offering fully networked seamless platforms across the region
-
Deliver insight through industry sector and regional specialisation
-
Building platforms offers viable alternatives
-
Offering a global service proposition and sett ng c ear serv ce expectat ons i l i i
Why?
-
Have a sound network through Asia Pacific to build upon
-
Uniquely placed to offer better insight to r egion
- Research and innovation at the core provides a competitive advantage over scaled and standardised models
-
Invest in technology and product development
-
Grow relationship teams in key
-
How? geographies
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Focus on lead sectors and products
-
Drawing on insights into customer industries, the region and the financial markets adds significant value
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Global Institutional
55
Global Institutional – a focus on growing core customer relationships supporting ni come performance
Cross Border Income
Customer Income[1]
Customer Growth
Super Regional strategy increasingly capturing cross border revenue flows
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1,100 new relationship managed
customers ex-acquisitions
14% CAGR
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Domestic Cross
Booked Border 21%
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Strong Customer Relationships
Debt Capital Markets a key strength
-
Peter Lee Associates survey of corporate and institutional clients in Australia ranked ANZ:
-
1 Bookrunner in Australia/NZ for Q1-Q3 2010 in terms of volume and number of transactions
-
First, or equal first, on 14 of the 26 qualitative relationship categories (up from 8 in FY09)
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1 Mandated Lead Arranger in Asia-Pacific (ex Japan) for Q1-Q3 2010 in terms of number of transactions
-
-
First in "overall penetration" (domestic plus offshore)
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Peter Lee Associates survey of corporate and institutional clients in New Zealand ranked ANZ first on overall satisfaction, relationship strength, penetration and a further 17 measures
-
These results reflect the strength and quality of our client relationships
1. Total income adjusted for Global Markets trading income.
Global Institutional
-
#1 Arranger of syndicated loans in Asia - Pacific (ex Japan) over the last five years in terms of total loan volume on a cumulative basis
-
1 on the A$ Corporate Bond League Table (INSTO)
-
1 in the utilities & infrastructure sector - ANZ has l e d over a h lf o f a ll A us t ra li an u tilit y an d i n f ras t ruc t ure transactions and raised over A$2.3bn in this sector
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56
Global Markets
Product Contribution % Total Income
Global Markets Income Sales & Trading Mix (A$m)[1]
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2,062
1,816
49%
1,225 43%
857 36%
29%
51% 57%
71% 64%
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-
Capital Markets growth underlines the benefits of Asian network expansion, ensuring we are well placed to connect our institutional customers with Asian liquidity pools.
-
In co m e d iv e r s ifi cat i o n by geog r ap h y a n d p r oduct line helping to offset revenue normalisation as volatility recedes.
-
2H10 investment in Global Markets management team to deliver scalable growth in coming years.
1. FX Adjusted.
Whilst lower than 2009, market volatility evident in 2010
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Global Institutional
57
Global Institutional P&L drivers
Underlying Performance[1] YOY Movement (FY10 vs. FY09) A$m
Business Segment Performance[1] YOY Movement (FY10 vs. FY09) A$m
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large 14% (22%) large
2
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large 14% (22%) large
2
2% 14% (46%) 23%
Geographic Performance [1]
YOY Movement (FY10 vs. FY09) A$m
Up 29%
2H10 vs
3% 10% ( 29% ) 2% 13%
1H10
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1. Pro forma basis assumes Royal bank of Scotland Asia acquisition took effect from 1 October 2008 and also adjusts for exchange rate movements which have impacted the FY10 results. .
2. Increase largely due to provisions in FY09 related to divested custody business. Global Institutional 58
Investing across the business in systems and people
Expense Growth[1]
Asia Pacific, Europe & America
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YOY HOH
31% 13%
10% 8%
(1%) 16%
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-
Continued investment in growing the Asia franchise and driving customer acquisition
-
Investment in support infrastructure to underpin revenue growth
Australia
-
Investment in frontline capability - people and CRM tools - to drive revenue uplift
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Rollout of cash management platform (Transactive) - with in excess of 2,500 Institutional clients now on boarded.
-
I nves t men t i n sys t ems o en t h ance process au t oma ti on and integrated work flow management and in enablement staff to ensure an efficient, well controlled environment
New Zealand
-
Strong cost management led to a YoY reduction in expenses
-
HoH increase reflects investment in payments systems (including settlement before interchange) and in cash management platform
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1. Pro forma basis assumes Royal bank of Scotland Asia acquisition took effect from 1 October 2008 and also adjusts for exchange rate movements which have impacted the FY10 results.
Global Institutional
59
Predicated on disciplined execution
Implementation priorities
Sustained customer growth
-
Deepening relationships with existing 3500 active clients
-
Targeting a significant number of new customer relationships already identified:
-
Over 50% of customer growth expected from APEA, 25% from Corporate
Process redesign
- Simplifying operating platforms and standardising procedures
Risk management
- Effectively partnering with risk and introducing industry specialists in priority markets
Equipping the team
-
Building a high performance culture
-
Recruiting and training across Asia, Operations, Relationships, Cash, Markets and Trade
-
Investing heavily in institutional banking executive leadership and product expertise
-
Si g nificantl y ex p andin g research ca p abilities within priority segments
Significant growth opportunities
Estimated addressable Cash Management Revenue pools
($b) 17% of pool
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* Korea, Thailand, Vietnam
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Global Institutional
60
– Priority segments Natural resources & Agriculture
Natural resources
Agriculture
-
Well positioned to develop a super regional natural resources business linkin g Australian producers with Asian processors and consumers
-
Clients and representation in all major domestic cities, major financial centres globally and 15 Asian markets
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Strong Australian natural resources client base and an established and growing network in Asia
-
Growing soft commodity demand from Asia
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Well positioned for Australian and NZ Corporate and Institutional agriculture clients
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Primary emphasis on providing Markets, -
-
Working Capital and supply chain solutions to clients
-
Revenue streams centred on trade and FX which are already core competencies
-
R evenues excee d t h at o f t h e ot h er ma 3 j or domestic banks combined
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Specialists mineral mining, oil & gas, mineral and oil and gas processing, commodity trading, primary services segments
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An organic growth strategy with increasing wallet penetration of existing clients as well as capturing identified targets.
-
Markets include cereals & sugar, protein cotton , Dairy and Oil Seeds
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Global Institutional
61
– Priority segments Infrastructure
-
Goal to become a leading commercial Infrastructure Bank in the Asia Pacific R eg on i
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Maintain dominant position in Australia and NZ and invest selectively in Asia
-
Infrastructure specialists , by adding Advisory, Equity placement, underwriting and DCM to lending and markets capabilities.
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Focus on power and utilities corresponding with Asia demand in this category
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ROE enhancing by reduced requirement of balance sheet
-
Segments include Power & Utiliti es, conom c n E i I f ras t ruc t ure (roads, airports etc) and Availability Infrastructure
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The New Zealand Government has announced a si g nificant National Infrastructure Plan and we are uniquely positioned to assist
Addressable revenue in APAC Infrastructure market set to grow to $5.5b
| (A$m) | Debt Txn. Banking Advice |
Markets Debt Capital Mkts. Equity |
|---|---|---|
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Global Institutional
62
– Priority products Cash Management & Trade
Cash Management
-
Vision to be a lead provider of pan-regional cash managemen t so u l ti ons v a a s ng e ransac i i l t ti ona l interface
-
Estimate the Asia Pacific wallet for cash management services at $20b
Trade
-
Support trade flows between our core operating geographies
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Build on strong market position in Australia and established presence and reputation as a trade bank in Asia
-
A significant driver of cross - sell revenue
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Investment agenda centred around people and technology and designed to accommodate substantial growth in customer numbers and transaction volume
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R o lli ng ou t ANZ T ransac ti ve, a we b - b ase d cas h management platform purpose-built for institutional, corporate and large business clients
Estimated market share of Australian Institutional Trade Business
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Internationa Peer l Domestic Peer
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Global Institutional
63
Priority products – Regional Rates and FX; Commodities and Debt Ca ital Markets p
Commodities
-
Commodity revenue split:
-
Hedging exposures of commodity producers and consumers ~ 60% of revenue
-
Trading for customers ~ 40%
-
Growth opportunities include capturing hedging opportunities in domestic agri/ middle market and commodit y consumers in Asia
Debt Capital Markets
-
Uniquely positioned with Super Regional strategy, with significant Asian Capital Market revenue pools
-
Borrower / investor multiplier effect
-
We raise more debt capital in Asia for Australian and New Zealand borrowers than anyone else ANZ
Regional Rates and FX
-
Largest domestic markets business
-
FX revenues growing at 40% pa since 2007 ,
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Aus/NZ/Pacific Niche, opportunity to expand into Asian currencies & clients (to become Asian USD specialist)
-
Rates revenues growing at 75% pa since 2006
-
5 key rates components, natural growth opportunity as Institutional expands:
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Hedging client interest rates
-
Hedging client currency futures and swaps (as driven by rate differentials)
-
S e lli ng nves i t ors v G t . an d S em i G v t . on b d s
-
Rates and credit trading
-
Managing ANZ’s balance sheet
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||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|Global|
|Borrowers|Ca|p|ital|Investors|
|Markets|
|Team|
|Seeking access|•|Research,|Seeking diverse|
|to low cost|advice|and quality|
|capital and|•|Loan|credit exposure|
|related hedging|•|Wholesale|
|syndication|
|•|Cor|p|orates|•|Bonds|(funds|
|•|Financial|•|Securitisation|•|insurers)|
|Institutions|•|Hedging|•|Public sector|
|•|Public sector|
|Global Institutional|64|
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Customercentricity is delivering business outcomes in Institutional
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Debt Capital Markets
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Project, Asset & Export Financing
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USD 600mn
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SGD 1bn
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AUD 1.75bn
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USD 263.7mn
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USD 600mn
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AUD 1.179bn
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Senior Unsecured Bonds Senior Unsecured Bonds Acquisition of CSR Limited’s Term Facilities to refinance Hope Finance for deliveries from Finance of the acquisition of
sugar and renewable energy Downs 1 & fund development of Nokia Siemens Network Port of Brisbane by Q Port
Joint Lead Manager andBookrunner Melco Crown Entertainment Joint Lead Manager andBookrunner Temasek Wilmar International business, Sucrogen LimitedFinancial Advisor Hope Downs 4 in Western AustraliaMandated Lead Arranger Hope Downs Iron Ore Pty Ltd iron ore projects Lender Telkomsel ECA: Finnvera Mandated Lead Arranger, Facility Agent and Security TrusteeHoldings Consortium
2010 2010 2010 November 2010 2010 November 2010
PHP 2bn SGD 500mn AUD 3.1bn AUD 475mn AUD 478mn NZD 150mn
Senior Unsecured Bonds Senior Unsecured Bonds Structuring and arranging for 5 Bank Syndicated Inventory Construction and Term Facilities Finance for Meridian’s purchase
expansion of coal export Finance Facility for the 206MW Collgar Wind of Siemens wind turbines for the
terminal to 53Mtpa Farm in Western Australia Te Uku wind farm
Metrobank Card Corporation Singapore Airlines Newcastle Coal Mandated Lead Arranger, ECA ECA: ELO/EKF
Joint Lead Manager andBookrunner Joint Lead Manager andBookrunner Financial Advisor Infrastructure Group Sole Arranger,Security Trustee & Agent Arranger and Agent, Facility Agent and Security Trustee Meridian Wind Farm Arranger & ECA Agent
2010 June 2010 2010 November 2010 March 2010 April 2010
Syndication Transaction Banking
AUD 2.3mn & INTEGRATED AUD GBP 75mn
USD 1.1bn USD 200mn
USD 200mn 65mn SOLUTION USD 150mn
Syndicated Term Loan Facility Syndicated Term Facility Cash & transaction Financing and working capital Bi-lateral Letter of Credit
management , FX/Interest rate for palm oil plantation interests Facility to meet regulatory
Woodside Petroleum Ltd Origin Energy Starhill Global REIT hedging and secured financing New Britain Palm Oil QBE Group requirements in UK and US
Mandated Lead Arranger andBookrunner Mandated Lead Arranger and Bookrunner Acquisition of David Jones Building in Perth Mandated Lead Arranger Letter of Credit Facility
2010 2010 2010 2010 November 2010
TRANSACTION C A S H
AUD 430 mn USD 1 . 0bn SGD 223mn
BANKING MANAGEMENT
Syndicated Term Loan Facility Syndicated Term Facility Internet banking platform for Sole Provider of Transaction Securitisation warehouse –
Sinochem Hong Kong regional hub Banking and Merchant Services credit card receivables
(Group) Company Limited in Australia
Mandated Lead Arranger, Underwriter and Bookrunner Qantas Airways Limited Term Loan Facility Mandated Lead Arranger & Bookrunnerguarranteed by Group Sinochem CMC Markets Singapore Vodafone Hutchison Australia Card Centre Asset Purchase Company
2010 August 2010 2010 December 2010 September 2010
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65
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Investor Discussion acP k
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AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED
Treasury
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ANZ’s strong capital ratios are fully reflected when measured consistentl across various urisdictions y j
| Sep 09 | Sep 10 | Dec 10 | FSA Dec 10 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Core Tier 1(1) | 9.0% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 11.3% |
| Tier 1 | 10.6% | 10.1% | 10.3% | 13.6% |
| Total Capital | 13.7% | 11.9% | 11.9% | 14.9% |
Capital Update:
-
ANZ’s capital strength reflects ongoing economic and regulatory uncertainty and the Group’s aim to maintain flexibility
-
FY10 net organic Tier-1 generation was +22bps:
-
Underlying earnings net of dividend +119bps;
-
RWA growth -48bps, principally market risk;
-
Profit retention by Insurance and Banking Associates (-23bps) and software capitalised (-11bps).
-
Dec - 10 , net Tier - 1 generation +20bps:
-
Underlying earnings net of dividend;
-
Decline in RWA mainly in market risk;
-
Offset by increase investment in Chinese banking associates.
Capital Agenda:
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Continue to be well capitalised and consistent with “AA” long term credit rating category.
-
Manage Basel 3 implementation:
-
Final Basel 3 regulations on capital deductions, - -
-
minimums and buffers, and Tier 1 and Tier 2 regulations were released in Dec-10.
-
Engage APRA throughout FY11 on interpretation and implementation of these changes.
-
Full alignment to proposed Basel 3 guidelines -
-
would result in an increase in Core Tier 1 ratio from current levels.
-
However, APRA have indicated the Basel 3 rules are likely to be viewed as a minimum standard.
1. ‘Core Tier 1’ = Tier 1 excluding hybrid Tier 1 instruments
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Treasury
67
Core Tier-1 level remains strong and well positioned
Capital Position (Core Tier-1 Ratio)
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11.30
1.99
0.80
8.96 0.39
0.46
8.30
8.05
Portfolio growth & mix 19bp decrease 1.25
Risk migration 3bp increase
Portfolio data review 4bp increase
Non credit RWA 27bp decrease
ING 79bp decrease
RBS 20bp decrease
Landmark 7bp decrease
Integration Costs 10bp decrease
ING Debt Funding 9bp decrease
Net organic up 34bp
Down 91bp
Sep-09 NPAT 1 Dividend / RWA Other 3 Acquisitions3 Sep-10 Dec-10 Dec-10 FSA
2
DRP movement
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1. Underlying NPAT. 2. Includes impact of movement in Expected Loss versus Collective Provision shortfall, 3. Includes OnePath Insurance Business, Asian Banking Associates, Capitalised Costs and Software, FX, Net Deferred Tax Assets, Pensions, MTM gains on own name included in profit
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Treasury
68
Tier-1 position reduced during FY10 due to acquisitions partially offset by Hybrid issuance
Capital Position (Tier-1 Ratio)
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13.6
1.99
0.63
10.56 0.80
10.3
0.48 10.10
0.49
1.31
Portfolio growth & mix 23bp decrease
Risk migration 4bp increase
Portfolio data review 5bp increase ING 79bp decrease
Non credit RWA 34bp decrease RBS 24bp decrease
Landmark 9bp decrease
Integration Costs 10bp decrease
ING Debt Funding 9bp decrease
Net organic up 22bp
Down 46bp
1 3
Sep-09 NPAT Dividend / RWA 2 Other Hybrids Acquisitions Sep-10 Dec-10 Dec-10 FSA
DRP movement
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1. Underlying NPAT. 2. Includes impact of movement in Expected Loss versus Collective Provision shortfall. 3. Includes OnePath Insurance Business, Asian Banking Associates, Capitalised Costs and Software, FX, Net Deferred Tax Assets, Pensions, MTM gains on own name included in profit
Treasury
69
Reconciliation of ANZ’s capital position to FSA Basel 2 uidelines g
APRA regulations are more conservative than current FSA regulations, in that APRA requires:
-
A 20% Loss Given Default floor for mortgages (FSA: 10% floor)
-
Interest Rate Risk in the Banking Book (IRRBB) included in Pillar I risks (FSA: Pillar II)
-
Capital deductions for investments in funds management subsidiaries (FSA: RWA assets)
-
Insurance subsidiaries to be a mixture of Tier 1 and Tier 2 deductions (FSA: transitional regulations permit Total Capital deductions under certain circumstances)
-
Expected dividend payments (net of dividend reinvestments) to be deducted from Tier-1 (FSA: no deduction)
-
Collective Provision to be net of tax when calculating EL v CP deduction (FSA: tax effect difference between EL and CP on gross basis)
-
Associates to be a mixture of Tier-1 and Tier-2 deductions (FSA: permits proportional consolidation under certain circumstances)
| Dec-10 under APRA standards 8.3% 10.3% 11.9% Core Tier-1 Tier-1 Total Capital |
|
|---|---|
| RWA (Mortgages, IRRBB, etc) 1.2% 1.5% 1.6% OnePath Funds Management and Life Co. businesses 0.9% 0.9% 0.3% Interim dividend accrued net of DRP & BOP 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% Expected Losses v Collective Provision 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% |
|
| Insurance subsidiaries (excluding OnePath businesses) 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% Investment in associates 0.2% 0.2% 0.4% Other1 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% Total adjustments 3.0% 3.3% 3.0% |
|
| D 0 FSA i l i 3 3 6 9 ec-1 equ va ent rat o 11. % 1 . % 14. % |
1. Other includes Net Deferred Tax Assets, Capitalised Expenses, Deferred Income and roundings.
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Treasury
70
- Basel 3 & APRA Regulatory reform Capital
Basel Committee Announcements
What remains outstanding under B3?
To date, the Basel Committee has announced:
-
Methodology for determining countercyclical buffer
-
New capital targets and buffers
-
Final requirements for Tier-1 & 2 instruments
-
Timetable and transition rules for implementation of Basel 3 from 2013 – 2019
-
Contingent and ‘ bail - in ’ capital requirements
-
Capital overlays for systematically important banks
-
Higher Core Tier-1 capital deductions: insurance businesses, banking associates, and shortfall of EL v CP, partly offset by 10/15% threshold allowance for insurance/banking associates and deferred tax assets
ANZ position under B3 rules:
-
ANZ’s estimated Core Tier-1 position under full B3 rules is above the proposed 7.0% min.
-
Position will remain uncertain until APRA finalises domestic rules and re-calibration. Recent indications are that local rules will at least meet the proposed new global standards
-
Hi g h er RWA c h arges or mar f k e t & cre dit r s i k s an d securitisation assets
-
Leverage ratio based on Tier-1 capital
-
Leverage ratio unlikely to be a binding constraint
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Core Tier-1 surplus
over 7.00% 9.5%
~9.2% [1]
Counter
8.0% cyclical
7.0% buffer [2]
0-2.5%
Capital
Buffer:
2.5%
Additional Basel 3 Full alignment to Basel Minimum
requirements target:
~ -140bps ~ +260bps 4.5%
2
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1. Subject to change pending final form of regulations
2. Counter-cyclical buffer expected to be comprised of Core Tier-1, Tier-1 Hybrids and contingent capital.
Treasury
71
Improved funding profile achieved, stable term debt issuance
Stable term funding profile
Funding Composition Improved
| Improved funding profile achieved, stable term debt i ssuance Stable term funding profile Funding Composition Improved |
Improved funding profile achieved, stable term debt i ssuance Stable term funding profile Funding Composition Improved |
|---|---|
| Subordinated Debt Short Term Wholesale Fdi |
|
| G G d unng overnment uarantee Senior Debt Term Debt < 1 year Residual Maturity Term Debt > 1 year Residual Maturity |
|
| 30.0 20.0 25.0 Issuance 15.0 |
Maturities |
| 10.0 0.0 5.0 |
|
| 72 Treasury FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 YTD FY 11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15+ |
ANZ’s sources of term funding have been further diversified over recent years
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FY07 Proposed
Domestic
AUD / NZD
10%
North America
26% USD / CAD 25%
30%
20%
UK & Europe
EUR / GBP / CHF
5%
Japan 5%
JPY 20%
20%
39%
Private
Placements
Multi-currency
APEA Deposit
Repatriation
Multi-currency
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APEA Deposit Repatriation Multi-currency
Offshore public benchmarks account for less than half of ANZ’s annual term debt issuance
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Treasury
73
Strong Liquidity Position leading into proposed B3 changes
Maintaining post GFC liquidity position ($b)
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Composition of liquid asset portfolio ($66.7b)
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Class 1 Class 2 Class 3
$28.9b $7.3b $30.5b
Government/ Semi Govt. / Govt. Bank or Corporate Internal RMBS
Guaranteed bank p a p er , NZ cash p a p er rated AA or
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Priority of use
Basel III Liquidity Developments
-
Reduction in required core funding of mortgages from 100% to 65%
-
Improved treatment of ‘Retail’ and ‘SME’ deposits
-
Allowance for high grade corporate and covered bonds as liquid assets
-
Recognition of jurisdictions (incl. Australia) that have insufficient qualifying liquid assets. Allowance for a committed liquidity facility from a central bank to be used – at a fee
-
Extended transition period
Impacts
-
Liquidity Coverage Ratio will require additional liquid assets (where available) to be held resulting in higher core funding requirements (remaining deficit meet via central bank facility)
-
This is primarily driven by non-operational deposits from Corporates and Financial In st i tut i o n s, a n d s h o r t te rm wh o l esa l e debt
-
Australian bank’s no longer discouraged from holding mortgages on-balance sheet
-
Given the lack of eligible liquid assets in Australia, APRA will allow banks to meet their LCR requirements through a committed liquidity facilit y at the RBA backed b y re p o eli g ible stock
-
The banks will pay a fee for this facility in line with cost of holding BIII eligible liquid assets
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Treasury
74
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Investor Discussion acP k
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AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED
Risk Management
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Credit Risk Weighted Assets
Total Credit Risk Weighted Assets
Credit RWA Movement FY10 vs. FY09
A$b A$b Acquisitions Impact: RBS $4.6b Landmark $2.3b
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Risk
76
Impaired Asset balance has reduced ex-acquisitions
Gross Impaired Assets By type A$m
Gross Impaired Assets By size of exposure
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A$m
New Impaired Assets
A$m By Segment
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NPCCD – Non Performing Credit Commitments and Contingencies
Risk
77
Watch & Control Lists and Risk Grade Profiles
Watch & Control List by limits (Mar 2009 Watch List index =100)
Group Risk Grade profile by Exposure at Default
Index
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Top 5 Watch List Industries
| By Exposure | By No. Groups | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| AiltFt&Fihi | AiltFt&Fihi | ||
| grcuure oresry sng , |
grcuure oresry sng , |
||
| Mining | Property Services | ||
| Finance & Insurance | Manufacturing | ||
| Property Services | Wholesale Trade | ||
| Manufacturing | Construction |
Watch List - An alert report of customers with characteristics identified which could result in requirement for closer credit attention
Control List - A report of high risk accounts which may or may not have defaulted
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Risk
78
90+ days past due Australia
Australia Mortgages 90+ day delinquencies
Australia Cards 90+ day delinquencies
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Australia Commercial 90+ day delinquencies
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Risk
79
Australia Mortgages
Portfolio Statistics
Dynamic Loan to Valuation Ratio
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- All lending is on a full recourse basis
Sep 2010 - 84% 12% 4%
-
Approvals require demonstrated serviceability
-
~ 830 , 000 l oans on oo b k
-
65% of portfolio owner occupied lending
-
Average loan size at origination ~$226k
-
Average LVR at origination - 63%
-
Average dynamic LVR – 46%
-
No sub p rime mort g a g es
-
LoDoc 80 loans (80% LVR) make up less than circa 1.3% of portfolio and closed to new flows
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Application Quality Average Score New Applications
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Risk
80
New Zealand – Risk Performance
Total Provision Charge
Total Impaired Assets and as % Gross Lending Assets
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(NZ$m)
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(NZ$m) 90+ Days Arrears
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Risk
81
Commercial Property Credit Exposure
Commercial Property Exposure GLA by Region (A$b)
Commercial Property Exposure by Sector
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7.5% of Group GLA’s
29.6
28.2
27.7
27.2 26.7
26.1
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Risk
82
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Investor Discussion acP k
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AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED
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Economics
Exceptionally strong investment outlook over next few years
| 80 | Communication sub-total Water & sewerage Sub-total $bn Uncertainty |
Communication sub-total Water & sewerage Sub-total $bn Uncertainty |
Communication sub-total Water & sewerage Sub-total $bn Uncertainty |
Communication sub-total Water & sewerage Sub-total $bn Uncertainty |
Communication sub-total Water & sewerage Sub-total $bn Uncertainty |
Communication sub-total Water & sewerage Sub-total $bn Uncertainty |
Communication sub-total Water & sewerage Sub-total $bn Uncertainty |
Communication sub-total Water & sewerage Sub-total $bn Uncertainty |
Communication sub-total Water & sewerage Sub-total $bn Uncertainty |
Communication sub-total Water & sewerage Sub-total $bn Uncertainty |
Communication sub-total Water & sewerage Sub-total $bn Uncertainty |
Communication sub-total Water & sewerage Sub-total $bn Uncertainty |
Communication sub-total Water & sewerage Sub-total $bn Uncertainty |
Communication sub-total Water & sewerage Sub-total $bn Uncertainty |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Communication sub-total Water & sewerage Sub-total Uncertainty |
||||||||||||||
| 60 70 |
Manufacturing Sub total - |
|||||||||||||
| Gas Pipeline sub-total Electricity Sub-total Mining Sub-total |
||||||||||||||
| ~~Energy Sub-total~~ Airports Sub-total Rail sub-total |
||||||||||||||
| 40 50 |
P t b t t l or s su - o a |
|||||||||||||
| ~~Roads Sub-total~~ | ||||||||||||||
| 20 30 |
||||||||||||||
| 0 10 |
||||||||||||||
| 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 |
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Sources: Access Economics and ANZ
Economics
84
The outlook for mining investment has rarely been stronger
ABARE Advanced Mining Projects, June 2010
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Sources: ABARE
Economics
85
Building activity will slump in 2011 – despite Qld flood rebuild
New residential Non-residential building (excl. eng. con.)
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11 $bn/qtr (real)
14 $bn/qtr (real)
work done
13
10
12
11
work done
9
10
9
8
8
7
Approvals
7
6
5 Approvals
6 4
3
5 2
9900 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
9900 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
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Sources: ABS, ANZ Economics and Markets Research
Economics
86
Australia heading towards above trend growth and unem lo ment will continue to fall p y
| 9 | 11 GDP growth ann. % change Gross |
11 GDP growth ann. % change Gross |
11 GDP growth ann. % change Gross |
% Forecasts Unemployment rate |
% Forecasts Unemployment rate |
% Forecasts Unemployment rate |
% Forecasts Unemployment rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| a. cag Gross |
|||||||
| 6 7 8 |
domestic income potential economic th |
9 10 |
|||||
| 3 4 5 |
grow | 7 8 |
|||||
| 0 1 2 |
Gross domestic product |
5 6 |
|||||
| -3 -2 -1 |
3 4 |
||||||
| 92 95 98 01 04 07 10 |
Record population growth coupled with undersupply
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Population growth vs. dwelling completions
225,000
450 , 000
Annual population
gain (lhs)
400,000
200,000
350,000
175,000
300,000
250,000 150,000
200,000
125,000
150,000
Annual dwelling completions
(rhs)
100 , 000 100 , 000
76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
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Sources: ABS, ANZ Economics and Markets Research
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Economics
88
The housing shortage has already reached un recedented levels – and will et much worse! p g
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Housing market balance
‘000
400
360
320
280
240
Underlying demand
200
160
120 Completions
80
Shortage
40
0
-40
- 80 Su r p l us
86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Sources: ABS, ANZ Economics and Markets Research
Economics 89
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Recovery in dwelling prices has been broadly-based
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Australian dwelling prices
Price Index
125
Bottom 20%
Middle 60%
Top 20%
120
115
110
105
100
95
Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11
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Source: RP Data Rismark
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Economics
90
Most of the growth in house prices since mid-1980s is accounted for by rising ncomes i & lower ni terest rates
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600 $'000
Actual house prices
$559k
500 13%
$483k
Simulated house
48%
400 prices if only
incomes growth and
interest rates
mattered
300 $289k
200
Simulated house
prices if only
100
i ncomes growt h
mattered
0
86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
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Sources: ABS, RBA, ANZ Economics and Global Markets Research
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Economics
91
Changing composition in those seeking finance approvals
Housing finance approvals (trend value)
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-
$Bn Annual Rolling Sum
120
First Home Buyers
Upgraders
Investors
100
80
60
40
20
-
93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
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Sources: ABS, RBA, ANZ Economics and Markets Research
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Economics
92
Distribution of debt rather than the aggregate debt is a key factor…
Increased household debt has been directed towards residential property, not personal consumption
And has been taken up by higher income households with the capacity to service
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Source: RBA paper “Aspects of Australia’s finances” 15 June 2010
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Economics
93
Complexion of household debt
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-
Household debt up but also total
-
assets held b y households
-
•Debt largely used to acquire assets
-
•Financial assets (i.e. ex housing) now equivalent to 2 . 75 years of income up from 1.75 years of income in the early 1990’s
-
•Increased debt mostly taken on by households in the strongest position to service it (high income quintile)
-
•Households in the top two quintiles account for 75% of all outstanding debt
-
•Bottom two income quintiles account for 10% of household debt
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Source: RBA paper “Aspects of Australia’s finances” 15 June 2010
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Economics
94
Vacancies tight (despite FHOB) and will tighten further in years ahead
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% Residential vacancy rate
6
Melb.
5
Long-term
4 average
3
2
Adel
.
Syd
1
Temporary rise
due to FHOB
and GFC
0
86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
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Source: REIA, ANZ
Economics
95
Australian house prices
Fundamentals are sound
-
Nominal house prices and ratio to income elevated
-
House price to income ratio ignores interest rates / debt servicing
-
Fundamentals are currently very supportive
-
Housing shortage worsening
-
Cyclical upturn underpinned by resources boom and authorities well placed to respond to any future crisis
Household sector well placed
-
Economy/labour market solid, unemployment falling – few forced sales (historically a pre-requisite or signi f f icant price a f ll s )
-
Low delinquencies reflect comfortable debt servicing
-
Lending standards critical to sustainability
Financial system solid
-
On balance sheet lending = incentives re. sustainable serviceability
-
Conservative lending = low delinquencies
-
F u ll rec ou r s e len d in g cf. US = le ss incentive t o d ef au lt
-
Variable interest rate policy works
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Economics
96
Conservative lending, supportive policy and strong economy has meant a very resilient housing market
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Source: RBA Economics
97
Australian house prices have broadly tracked incomes since 2004 incomes risin stron l due to terms of trade ( g g y )
House price to income ratio
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Index
7
Australia
US
6
UK
New Zealand
5
4
3
2
1
0
81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09
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Sources: RP Data-Rismark, RBA, ANZ Economics and Markets Research
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Economics
98
A structural lowering (halving) of mortgage rates has si nificantl im roved debt serviceabilit g y p y
Mortgage interest rates
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%
20
Australia US
18
UK NZ
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
On average, mortgage rates have halved
2 justifying a near doubling of house price to
0
81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09
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Sources: ABS, Datastream, ANZ Economics and Markets Research
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Economics
99
Increase in house price to income ratio almost fully accounted for y b the ah lving of mortgage rate
| Increase in house price to income ratio almost fully t d f b th h l i f t t accoun e or y e a v ng o mor gage ra e |
Increase in house price to income ratio almost fully t d f b th h l i f t t accoun e or y e a v ng o mor gage ra e |
Increase in house price to income ratio almost fully t d f b th h l i f t t accoun e or y e a v ng o mor gage ra e |
Increase in house price to income ratio almost fully t d f b th h l i f t t accoun e or y e a v ng o mor gage ra e |
Increase in house price to income ratio almost fully t d f b th h l i f t t accoun e or y e a v ng o mor gage ra e |
Increase in house price to income ratio almost fully t d f b th h l i f t t accoun e or y e a v ng o mor gage ra e |
Increase in house price to income ratio almost fully t d f b th h l i f t t accoun e or y e a v ng o mor gage ra e |
Increase in house price to income ratio almost fully t d f b th h l i f t t accoun e or y e a v ng o mor gage ra e |
Increase in house price to income ratio almost fully t d f b th h l i f t t accoun e or y e a v ng o mor gage ra e |
Increase in house price to income ratio almost fully t d f b th h l i f t t accoun e or y e a v ng o mor gage ra e |
Increase in house price to income ratio almost fully t d f b th h l i f t t accoun e or y e a v ng o mor gage ra e |
Increase in house price to income ratio almost fully t d f b th h l i f t t accoun e or y e a v ng o mor gage ra e |
Increase in house price to income ratio almost fully t d f b th h l i f t t accoun e or y e a v ng o mor gage ra e |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $000's Median house price $000's % ratio Mortgage rate Average household income House price to income |
||||||||||||
| 500 600 100 120 14 16 |
5 6 |
|||||||||||
| 400 | 80 | 10 12 |
4 | |||||||||
| 200 300 |
40 60 |
6 8 |
2 3 |
|||||||||
| 0 100 |
0 20 |
2 4 |
1 | |||||||||
| 0 1985 2010 1985 2010 Sources: ABS, RBA, ANZ Economics and Markets Research 100 Economics |
0 1985 2010 |
1985 2010 |
Household incomes and consumption
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% Household disposable income & consumption
12
Gross disposable income Consumption spending
Savings rate
10
8
6
4
2
0
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12
-
2
Forecasts
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Source: ANZ, RBA, ABS
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Economics
101
Australia has run a current account deficit for most of the past 150 years
Current account deficit
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-
The current account deficit is the gap between national saving and national investment
-
That Australia has run a deficit for such a long period suggests the country has more investment opportunities than it can fund out of domestic saving
-
By running such deficits and capitalising on these investment opportunities, Australia has been able to grow its economy and labour market at a much faster rate than if it had relied solely on domestic saving . Our living standard will have been considerably lower on domestic saving alone.
-
A natural consequence of running continual current account deficits (flow) is a build up in net foreign liabilities (stock) – from 40% of GDP in 1989 to 60% of GDP in 2009.
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Sources: ABS, RBA, Butlin
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Economics
102
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