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Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. — Annual Report 2010
Jan 9, 2011
10425_rns_2011-01-09_c30861e0-43ce-4d46-a327-56f534c4b28f.pdf
Annual Report
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AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED
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ANZ has established a strong business foundation
A clear company wide focus on our super regional strategy:
| • | Organised our business around three key geographies and our customers | p. 3-16 |
|---|---|---|
| • | Maintaining strong businesses in our home markets: | |
| • Australia | p. 17-22 | |
| • New Zealand | p. 33-37 | |
| • | Investing for strong organic growth in Asia | p. 23-32 |
| • | A redefined and clear focus in our global institutional business | p. 38-51 |
| • | Supported by a strong capital and funding position | p. 52-61 |
| • | Strengthened governance and risk systems and an improving credit outlook | p. 62-69 |
| • | Economic updates | p. 70-90 |
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AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED
Overview and strategy
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ANZ is structured by Geography & Segment
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Asia Pacific, Europe & America (APEA)
Retail
Commercial
(including Wealth Institutional
(emerging)
partnerships)
Australia
Retail Wealth Commercial Institutional
New Zealand
Retail Wealth Commercial Institutional
Institutional is a global business
4
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Super Regional strategy progressing well
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TRANSFORM
OUT PERFORM
RESTORE
•
Quality on par with Create
• Institutional back
global leaders in our
to system markets a leading Super
•
Restore “jaws” – • Best of breed Regional bank
increase revenue
customer experience
faster than costs Global quality,
•
• In-fill mergers and
Drive Asia profit
acquisitions in Asia regional focus
• Capture existing
(core geographies)
opportunities
• Strategic cost • Unlock the value of
our franchise
management
1 to 2 years 2 to 5 years 5+ years
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Launched December 2007
ANZ Australia NZ Asia Pacific target ~60% of all ANZ profit ~20% ~20% 2012
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Super Regional Strategy
Asian, Australian & New Zealand interconnectedness increasing:
-
Following and supporting our customers to the region, developing relationships to work both ends of the trade flows.
-
Trade flows between Asia and Australia and New Zealand continue to grow.
-
Significant intra-Asia trade flows are also growing
Australian 2 way trade weights US & Europe[1]
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Strengthens and broadens the Group balance sheet:
Asia[1]
-
Leveraging deep liquidity pools within Asia where there is a higher propensity to save
-
Diversifies the balance sheet
-
Source: ANZ, RBA. ASEAN 6: Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines, Vietnam
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6
Regional and intra-regional trade and investment flows are substantive
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Denotes two way trade flow (2008)
FDI inward flow (US$b, 2008)
Asia [1] -Europe Asia [1] -USA
Trade: US$1.1trn Trade: US$1.0trn
CN
TW
108
5
IND HK
42 VN 63 Pacific-Asia [1]
8 Trade: US$7b
INDON
Intra-Asia [1] 8
Aus/NZ-Pacific
Trade: US$2.5trn
Trade: US$5b
Aus/NZ-Asia [1]
Trade: US$235b
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- Asia includes China, Cambodia, India, Indonesia, Hong Kong, Japan, Korea, Laos, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan and Vietnam Data source: UN Comtrade database; country statistics; ADB website; press searches; Datamonitor, McKinsey Global Banking Pools, APRA, CEIC
7
Building a genuinely pan regional business - connectivity provides a competitive advantage
Linked through flows of trade, capital and population
Growth in trade and capital flows between Asia and Australia are tracking 17% to 25% pa
Surplus savings
Key focus is to bridge gaps across the region: Asia generates surplus liquidity, Australia and NZ generate hard and soft commodities
Over 50% of domestic customers depend on Asia for over 25% of their business
Strategy extends beyond banking Australia / NZ customers into Asia, we are actively facilitating intra-Asia cash management, trade and markets transactions for Asian customers
There is approximately $60b in direct foreign investment into Australia from the Asian region
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Commodity
consumers
Commodity
producers
Migration &
Investment
Natural resources account for $80b or 30%
of Australian and New Zealand exports
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Soft commodities account for $40b or 15% of Australian and New Zealand exports
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8
Strategy is supported by a disciplined approach to M&A – RBS Asia acquisition
-
Acquired RBS¹ businesses in six countries, aligned with current strategy:
-
Retail, wealth & commercial businesses in Taiwan, Singapore Indonesia² and Hong Kong;
-
Institutional businesses in Taiwan, the Philippines and Vietnam
-
Purchase price US$50m (˜A$60m) premium to fully provided recapitalised net tangible book value³. Equates to ˜1.1 x net tangible book value
-
Transaction includes ˜US$7bn (A$9bn) deposits, ˜US$3bn (A$4bn) loans,˜2m affluent and emerging affluent customers, 49 branches
| Country | Business | **Branches ** | **Customers ** | Deposits |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taiwan | Retail Commercial Institutional |
21 & 16 licenses |
~1.3m | ~US $2.5b |
| Hong Kong | Retail Commercial |
5 | ~30k | ~US$1.4b |
| Singapore | Retail Commercial |
5 | ~350k | ~US$1.8b |
| Indonesia | Retail Commercial |
18 | ~450k | ~US$700m |
| Vietnam | Institutional | - | ~60 | ~US$20m |
| Philippines | Institutional | - | ~100 | ~US4m |
-
Transaction is largely a sale of assets and liabilities, not companies, of businesses held by ABNAMRO mainly through branches, RBS will retain a presence in some countries.
-
The Indonesian retail, wealth and commercial businesses will be acquired through ANZ‟s 99% owned subsidiary ANZ Panin.
-
Based on RWA calculated by ANZ under a Basel II standardised approach as at 31 May 2009.
-
On a fully provided recapitalised basis
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Strategy is supported by a disciplined approach to M&A - ING Australia and New Zealand Joint Ventures
-
Acquired ING Groep‟s (ING) 51% interest in ING Australia and ING NZ (the JVs) for $1,760m [1]
-
~11x multiple of normalised 2008 earnings [2]
-
1.2x multiple of embedded value (EV) [3]
-
Cash EPS accretive in FY10 [4]
-
Delivered immediate scale – FUM, In-force premiums, and distribution
-
~$42b of FUM, $1.3b of in-force premiums
-
~1,700 aligned dealer group advisers (Aus)
-
Historically around 2/3[rd] of operating income from wealth management, one third from risk
-
Australia – No. 3 in life insurance [5] , No. 5 in retail funds mgt, largest aligned adviser force
Australia
Acquired ING's 51% in ING Australia manufacturing and distribution of investment life & GI products, the Equity owned advisor networks and administration platforms
Australia FUM: $39b
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Mezzanine 4%
Oasis Wrap 13% Wholesale 1%
OneAnswer Mastertrust 40%
Employer Super 27%
Other Retail15%
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-
New Zealand – No. 5 in life insurance [5] largest KiwiSaver provider, No. 2 funds manager
-
Funded from existing resources, capital impact ~(70)bps, pro forma Tier 1 post acquisition 9.5% [6]
New Zealand
Acquired ING's 51% in ING New Zealand: Wealth Management and Retail, Wholesale and Property Investment Management
-
Transaction completed 30[th] November 2009
-
Announced OnePath branding August 2010
1 Purchase price. Separately ANZ made a payment of $55m to acquire ING‟s share of the NZ Diversified Yield Fund (DYF) & Regular Income Fund (RIF) redeemable preference shares 2 Earnings for the year to 30 September 2008 incorporating normalised long term expectations 3 As at 31 December 2008 4 Based on current share price 5 By in-force premium share 6 As at 30 June 2009 adjusted for $2.2b SPP and impact of RBS acquisition
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Strategy is supported by a disciplined approach to M&A - Landmark Loan and D it book epos
Overview of transaction
Overview of Landmark
-
Acquisition of Landmark Financial Services (LFS) loan and deposit book from AWB‟s rural service business Landmark:
-
Net book value on fully provided, nil premium basis
-
~$2.2b lending assets & ~$0.4b deposits
-
Leading Australian agribusiness company, offering merchandise, fertiliser, farm services, wool, livestock, finance, insurance and real estate
-
Largest distributor of merchandise and fertiliser, with ~2,000 employees servicing ~100,000 clients across over 400 outlets
-
~10,000 banking customers
-
~100 Relationship Management Staff
Acquired the LFS loan and deposit books, the lending and deposit taking divisions of Landmark
-
~45 Support staff
-
ANZ / Landmark to enter exclusive customer referral agreement:
-
Access to ~100,000 Landmark rural service customers (~85% of Australian farming entities)
-
Access through extensive network
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Finance
Fertiliser Insurance
Landmark
Real
Livestock
Estate
Merchandise
Farm
Wool
Services
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ANZ has continued to invest for growth notwithstanding recent tougher economic conditions
Revenue and Expenses
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17% Pro Forma
Basis [1]
12%
12%
10%
9%
8% 8% 7% 8%
6%
FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10
Revenue Expenses
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Net Profit by region
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Net Profit after tax[2]
Provision charges
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- Pro forma basis assumes ING Australia and New Zealand, Landmark and Royal bank of Scotland Asia acquisitions took effect from 1 October 2008 and also adjusts for exchange rate movements which have impacted the FY10 results.
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- FY06-07 presented on a cash basis, FY08-10 presented on an underlying basis adjusted to reflect the ongoing operations of the Group.
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Group loans and deposits
Group Customer Deposits (A$b)
Group Net Loans and Advances (including acceptances) (A$b)
Loan to Deposit Ratio Sep 2010 – 140%
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Loan to Deposit Ratio Sep 2006 – 171%
1 1
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- Includes Wealth and Other
Regional performance: Overview
13
Net loans and advances[1] by geography
| A$b Growth |
Australia FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 13% 15% (1%) 6% |
New Zealand (NZD) FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 13% 11% (1%) (1%) |
APEA (USD) | APEA (USD) | APEA (USD) | APEA (USD) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY07 | FY08 | FY09 | FY10 | |||
| 31% | 99% | (14%) | 45% | |||
2
- NLAs include acceptances 2. Retail includes Wealth and Group Centre
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Regional performance: Overview
14
Customer deposits by geography
| A$b Growth |
Australia FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 20% 12% 14% 7% |
New Zealand (NZD) FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 7% 5% 2% 0% |
APEA (USD) | APEA (USD) | APEA (USD) | APEA (USD) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY07 | FY08 | FY09 | FY10 | |||
| 26% | 69% | 31% | 72% | |||
1
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- Retail includes Wealth and Other
Regional performance: Overview
15
Diversified lending portfolio, weighted to secured mortgage portfolio
Net Loans and Advances (including acceptances) by product line
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(A$b) 361
1 (A$b) 172
1
47
(A$b) 90
52
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- Includes Wealth.
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AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED
Australia Division
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Australia Division – high value strategy has delivered
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Pro Forma Basis [2]
Australia Division Revenue & Expense growth [1]
Profit Before
Provisions growth
Pro Forma
Basis [2]
Provisions
Net Profit after tax
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-
2005 to 2008 based on “Personal Division” structure, 2009 and 2010 based on “Australia Division” structure,
-
Pro forma basis assumes ING Australia and New Zealand and Landmark a acquisitions took effect from 1 October 2008.
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Australia
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ANZ’s Super Regional strategy provides opportunities across our Australian business
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Retail
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-
By 2015 15% of the Australian population will be of Asian origin
-
Student volume is driving much of the in-flow from Asia (particularly China, India and Korea)
-
Implementation of a global retail operating model coupled with supporting infrastructure
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Wealth
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- Differentiated services for Asian customer segments linked to our regional proposition and product offer including the Private Bank
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Commercial
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-
Over 50% of domestic customers depend on Asia for over 25% of their business
-
Links into our Institutional strategy – supported by investment in trade, cash and markets products
-
Customer insight in particular around resources, agriculture and infrastructure
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In-country Business
Migrant banking
Development
platforms
Managers
Asian banking
Cultural competency
specialists across
education programs
major capital cities
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Regional product
Private Bank
propositions
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Building Common Building Common
products & platforms strategic disciplines
Regional
Regional customer
talent
proposition
pool
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Retail building on a strong customer franchise, revenues im fee chan and hi her cost of funds pacted by ges g
Pro Forma Basis[3]
Market share[2]
- iKnow platform providing frontline staff with improved customer insights and support
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iKnow platform providing frontline staff with
Revenue growth
improved customer insights and support (% of market share )
• Renewed focus on customer service and
execution in Mortgages. More in-branch and
Mobile Managers and increased investment
in back office support
• Deposit growth delivered through
disciplined strategy
Expense growth • New products and packages including
Merchant EPOS, GoMoney iPhone app, ANZ
Extras package and prepaid cards
Leader in customer
satisfaction amongst the
2010 mortgage growth
Provision growth major Australian banks [1]
(Multiple of system) [3]
85 % satisfied or very satisfied [1]
80 Growth of 1.4x system
75
NPAT growth 70
65 ANZ Peer 1
Peer 2 Peer 3
60
Oct-08 Apr-09 Oct-09 Apr-10 Oct-10
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-
Roy Morgan Research ; Aust Main Financial Institution Pop‟n aged 14+, % satisfied (very or fairly satisfied), rolling 6 months 2. APRA / RBA statistics, Cannex. 3. APRA statistics
-
Pro forma basis assumes ING Australia and New Zealand and Landmark a acquisitions took effect from 1 October 2008.
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Australia: Commercial
Pro Forma Basis[3]
-
Acquired Landmark Financial Services
-
Revenue growth ($2.2bn lending, $400m deposits) • Invested in more small business specialists.
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Acquired Landmark Financial Services Growing market share [1]
Revenue growth ($2.2bn lending, $400m deposits)
• Invested in more small business (% of market share)
specialists.
• Esanda transitioned to a purely auto
financier with business equipment asset
finance now in ANZ Commercial channels
• Commercial Banking lending growth of
Expense growth
10% (5% ex. Landmark)
• Deposits relatively flat, impacted by
debenture run-off in Esanda ($1.5bn from
FY09)
Provision growth Credit approvals increasing Growing share of wallet [2]
Credit approvals (3mth rolling avg) [3]
Index: Jan 2010= 100 Up 27%
NPAT growth
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-
DBM Business Financial Services Monitor, overall lending and deposit FUM,
-
Finance industry statistics, 3. Business Bank and Small Business Banking.
-
Pro forma basis assumes ING Australia and New Zealand and Landmark a acquisitions took effect from 1 October 2008.
21
Australia: Wealth
Pro Forma Basis[1]
- ANZ assumed full ownership of ING's superannuation, investment and insurance businesses
Insurance in-force premiums
Revenue growth
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$m Up 14%
1,312
1,155 1,230
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•
•
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-
Combined with ANZ Private and Investment & Insurance businesses to form a single Wealth unit
-
Strengthened customer
proposition, offering manufacturing and distribution of investment and insurance products and advice, private banking, trustees, investment lending and E*TRADE broking.
Expense growth
Funds under Management
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ETrade volumes
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Provisions
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contract notes per day (6 month avg)
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$b Up 2%
40.7 41.7 41.7
Sep- Sep- Sep- Sep- Sep- Sep-
00 02 04 06 08 10
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FY10: 36m credit vs FY09 charge of 67m 2H10: 33m credit vs 3m credit in 1H10
NPAT growth
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- Pro forma basis assumes ING Australia and New Zealand acquisition took effect from 1 October 2008.
22
AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED
The Asia Pacific Europe & America Division
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Deep onshore presence and strong network model delivers connectivit to clients y
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Franchise
Franchise Markets
Network
Core markets for Institutional, Commercial, Retail & Wealth Hubs
• Greater China
•
Greater Mekong [1]
• India
• Indonesia
•
Malaysia
• Pacific
Regional Business Hubs Greater China
(33)
• Singapore • Hong Kong
Greater Mekong
India (1) (31)
Institutional Network markets
Malaysia
Pacific (60)
Singapore (6)
Network markets are crucial to delivering pan-regional
integrated solutions to clients
• Korea • UAE Indonesia (28)
• Japan • Europe
• Philippines • America () - Number of branches and
• Thailand representative offices in each country
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Regional Business Hubs
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- Focus on Vietnam
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Since 2008, we have prioritised our build out, enabling us to become a credible competitor
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1H 2008
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Today
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| North East Asia, Europe & Americas Hubs South and South East Asia |
• Institutional network • Formed partnership with AmBank • Pan-regional Institutional/commercial business • Top 4 foreign bank in Indonesia • Largest foreign bank franchise in Greater Mekong • Pre-approval for Indian banking licence • AmBank an outperformer |
|---|---|
| • Limited Institutional business • Two branches in China • Stand alone Europe & America business • Pan-regional institutional banking network and customer base • Taiwan –full franchise • China – Branches in top 4 cities + rural bank • Europe & America - Interconnectivity |
|
| • Limited institutional business with few customers • Ex-pat focused Private Bank • Deep on shore Institutional capability • Full Retail and Wealth, Private Bank and Commercial businesses • Full banking license in both Hubs |
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APEA: Balance sheet momentum[1]
APEA loans & deposits (US$b)
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RBS [2] Dep. Loans
2H10 5.0 2.8
1H10 1.5 0.4
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APEA Current & Saving accounts (CASA) (US$b)
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Includes accounts from
RBS acquisition
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2010 loan and deposit growth by region
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APEA Asia Pacific Europe &
America
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2010 loan & deposit growth by segment
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Retail Asia Retail Pacific Instit. Wealth
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- All figures based on USD financial information. 2. loans and deposits (in US$b) for the RBS acquisition, includes Vietnam, Philippines & Hong Kong in 1H10, Taiwan, Singapore & Indonesia in 2H10
APEA
26
Business strategy allows for efficient use of APEA's liquidity surplus
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Business
Strategy
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-
Focus on affluent and emerging affluent client segments
-
Building a substantive DCM and Cash Management capability and investor client base
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Efficient use of APEA
Liquidity surplus
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This focus allows us to:
-
Fund our own regional growth in a less expensive and sustainable way
-
Take Australian and New Zealand clients to the Asian debt markets
-
Opportunity to provide Australian and New Zealand clients with diversified funding structures, through assets written in Asia
-
Access deep pools of liquidity throughout the region in particular in North East Asia (e.g. Japan, Taiwan)
-
Contribute positively to the Group balance sheet
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Becoming a top four Institutional bank in Asia Pacific
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Customer Segments
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Institutional
MNC / Regional Corporate
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Value Proposition
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-
Be a core wholesale bank to our clients
-
Leveraging our strengths:
-
Regional network and connectivity
-
AA rating
Commercial Emerging Corporate / SME Financial Institution & Public Sector
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-
Deep insights – geographic, industry, client
-
Experienced Asian bankers
-
Out-deliver on service and speed
-
Focused and deep product capabilities – Cash, Trade, Rates and FX, Commodities and Debt Capital Markets
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We are delivering for Institutional and our clients across Asia and the Pacific
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Regional Connectivity
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Examples
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European and US Multinational
companies accessing Asia
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-
Mandated Lead Arrangers with BNP and HSBC
-
US$411m (2.7x launch size)-maiden Asian syndication bond
Asia Funding for Australian and New Zealand institutional clients
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Raised US$1,100m (3.7x launch size), most investors new to client
-
Demand driven by companies with strong Asian business links
Asian migration into Australia and New Zealand – trade, investment and people
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- Lead arranged the 3-year club syndication refinancing facility for LaSalle Investment Management Asia's 50% stake in Westfield Doncaster Retail Mall.
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Intra-Asia trade and investment
flows
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-
Joint lead managers for NZD225m Kauri bond issuance
-
Demand from New Zealand (59%) and Asia
-
(37%)
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Intra Pacific and Asia deals
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Lead arranger of US$14b financing for PNG LNG project
-
Largest debt raising in Asia Pacific
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Our Retail & Wealth and Private Bank will deliver local and regional banking to the affluent in each market
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Customer segments
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-
HNW, Affluent & Emerging Affluent
-
Owners, management and staff of our institutional and commercial clients
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Position and Value Proposition
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Retail and Wealth
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Three critical value proposition themes – “Understands and recognises me”
-
Based upon relationships, customer advice not product led
-
Accessible across the region – Pan regional Signature Priority Banking branches
-
Banking the family
-
Meeting the holistic financial needs – savings, protection to credit
Private Bank
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A trusted advisor with an understanding of personal, professional and business needs
-
Leveraging ANZ‟s Institutional and Commercial business to attract customers
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Five key partnerships expand our organic agenda
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Partnership Model
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-
Significant influence
-
Exposure to growth markets and segments we can‟t currently access
-
ANZ adds value through
-
leadership & management,
-
product development,
-
technical expertise and
-
two way customer flows
-
Double play in high growth, high return market
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Focus on our key segments (Commercial, Affluent & Emerging Affluent)
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Scale (Number 5 by assets & deposits) in a closed market
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ANZ significant driver of leap in performance (market cap increase 56.4% 2008 – 2010)
-
Exposure to Shanghai – Top Commercial / Wealth City in China
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- Focus in Commercial & Retail segments complements our organic focus
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- Solid financial returns for ANZ
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-
Play on fourth largest city Commercial Centre in China
-
Provides exposure in a market in which we do not have a branch presence
-
Potential for long term strategic positioning
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-
Fourth largest credit card issuer
-
Provides access to profitable segment of retail market
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31
Organic growth a key driver of strategy
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2008 2009 2010 2011 2012+
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Develop strategy and
build business model
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Continue organic
growth with bolt-ons
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Extend and deepen franchise
-
Build substantive Institutional business
-
Organic growth anchored by Institutional / Commercial
-
Deepen organic growth in hubs and franchise countries
-
•
-
Build Singapore and Hong Rapid build out of Retail and Kong hubs Wealth and Private Bank
-
Build South East Asia business • Complete RBS acquisition and integration
-
Created business model for Retail and Wealth and Private • Continue to focus on liability Bank – scaled up with RBS growth
-
Commence build-out of franchise in second wave markets
-
Seek inorganic opportunities to build scale
-
•
-
Build risk and governance Deepen influence in five key model partnerships
-
Obtained licences
-
Continue to build out technology and operational platforms
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32
AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED
The New Zealand Division
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Our strategy is to fully leverage ANZ’s leading market osition to deliver su erior rowth and returns p p g
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Two strong banking brands with a
powerful market presence
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Leveraging leading market share positions[1]
Market share[1]
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39% 39%
33%
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Well diversified portfolio, weighted
Net Loans & Advances including Acceptances March 2010
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- RBNZ and TNS New Zealand Ltd Business Finance Monitor 2. Commercial Main Bank Share
34
New Zealand - Retail & Wealth
Retail
Wealth
Pro Forma Basis[2]
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• •
Asset growth flat, system growth Wealth profitability favourably
Revenue growth
rates subdued impacted by ING NZ full ownership
•
Income impacted by removal of • $1.5 billion KiwiSaver FUM with
exception fees, margins over 360,000 customers, #1 with
improving, costs impacted by
growing market share (24.1%)
marketing phasing
•
19.4% growth in ING Life
•
Share of new mortgage business
Expense growth Businesses InForce book
increasing in the <80% LVR market
and overall mortgage growth in the • ANZ Private Bank named Best
later part of 2010 Private Bank in New Zealand [1]
Retail Net Profit after Tax Wealth growth rates
FY10
Provision growth NZD m
NPAT growth 2H10
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-
2010 Euromoney Private Banking Survey
-
Pro forma basis assumes ING Australia and New Zealand, Landmark and Royal bank of Scotland Asia acquisitions took effect from 1 October 2008 and also adjusts for exchange rate movements which have impacted the FY10 results.
35
New Zealand - Commercial
Commercial
Rural
Pro Forma Basis[1]
-
Higher Rural incomes with Fonterra forecasting the third highest dairy payout on record
-
Leveraged Shanghai Expo as an
-
Revenue growth opportunity to connect customers to Asia and demonstrate regional capabilities
-
• Privately Owned Business Barometer consolidates thought leadership and customer connections as market leader
-
Expense growth • Strong UDC performance taking advantage of relative strength in finance company sector
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Revenue growth
opportunity to connect customers to
Asia and demonstrate regional on record
•
capabilities
• Privately Owned Business Barometer
consolidates thought leadership and in product prices
customer connections as market leader •
Expense growth • Strong UDC performance taking
advantage of relative strength in
finance company sector •
• Clear improvements in customer farmers de-leverage
satisfaction, with ANZ score increasing •
from 58% to 69%
Provision growth
Commercial NPAT
Rural NPAT
(excl. Rural)
NZD m
NZD m
NPAT growth 113
66
49
(5)
1H09 2H09 1H10 2H10
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-
ANZ continues to support customers through this period of increased volatility in product prices
-
Greater focus by borrowers on cash returns and liquidity with many using increased incomes to reduce debt
-
Provisions are expected to improve as farmers de-leverage
-
Seminars conducted across the industry covering topics such as governance, large business management and financial understanding for young farmers
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- Pro forma basis assumes ING Australia and New Zealand, Landmark and Royal bank of Scotland Asia acquisitions took effect from 1 October 2008 and also adjusts for exchange rate movements which have impacted the FY10 results.
36
New Zealand - Institutional
- Pro Forma Basis[2] • ANZ continues to dominate the NZ institutional segment
2010 Financial Performance
Revenue growth
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Trading revenue
down 161m
Customer revenue
down 14m
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-
Second half expense growth driven by investment in payments systems
-
Connecting customers to Asia and demonstrating ANZ regional capability with Shanghai World Expo and Kiwi Day roadshows in Asia
Expense growth
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----- Start of picture text -----
•
•
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- Awarded INFINZ bank of the
year for focus on customers and developing growth opportunities for NZ
Strong Customer Relationships
New Zealand Relationship Market Penetration[1] (%)
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ANZ Peer 1 Peer 2 Peer 3
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- Extending its position as clear market leader with customers (outstanding results across 5 Peter Lee Associate surveys)
NPAT growth
-
Leadership of Debt Capital Markets and Syndication loan league tables
-
Market leading innovative client solutions, e.g. 1st HKD bond issue, ECA financing
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-
Source: Peter Lee Associates Relationship Banking survey, New Zealand, 2010. Sample size 2009 N=132, 2010 N=135
-
Pro forma basis assumes ING Australia and New Zealand, Landmark and Royal bank of Scotland Asia acquisitions took effect from 1 October 2008 and also adjusts for exchange rate movements which have impacted the FY10 results.
37
AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED
The Institutional Business
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Global Institutional business focus redefined
Foundations laid
-
Strengthened the Institutional Leadership Team, additional team members with international experience
-
Starting to execute the technology and operations roadmap
-
Improving capital discipline
-
Exiting non-core businesses
-
Delivering record pre provision profits
-
Substantive progress in remediation completion
Clear goals set
Revenue Contribution by Product
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-
To become the bank of choice for Resources and Infrastructure in the region
-
Building leading cash, trade and markets platforms with capabilities across Australia, NZ and Asia
-
Targeting significant growth in customer relationships
Global Markets Lending Trade & Transaction Banking
- Generating well balanced and sustainable earnings across geographies and segments
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39
Increased focus on core customers and geographies
Over 3,500 active Institutional and Corporate customers supported by over 5,000 staff
-
Corporate banking customers: t/over $40-400m
-
Institutional customers: t/over >$400m
A single global team services customer needs across the network
- Global representation supports customers based in Australia, New Zealand, Asia Pacific, Europe and America geographies
Customer relationship sectors
-
Banking a full range of customers
-
Building dominance in a limited number of segments
Global lines
-
Natural resources
-
Priority segments
-
Infrastructure
-
Agribusiness
-
Financial institutions & public sector
-
Domestic presence in Australia and New Zealand for over 170 years
-
Asian representation commenced over 40 years ago and we now have a presence in 15 Asian markets
-
Institutional regional hub established in Hong Kong (centralised support functions for APEA institutional business)
-
Branches in Europe and North America ensure global network coverage
Other lines
-
Property
-
Diversified industrials
-
Consumer and services
-
Telco‟s, media, entertainment and technology
-
Corporate Banking
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40
Regional networks, superior insights & service underpin the competitive advantage
Regionally Networked Model
Competing globally requires superior insights and service
Offering
-
A lead regional bank servicing clients with pan regional needs
-
A strong regional branch footprint
-
Single platforms for Cash, Trade and Markets offering fully networked seamless platforms across the region
-
Deliver insight through industry sector and regional specialisation
-
Building platforms offers viable alternatives
-
Offering a global service proposition and setting clear service expectations
Why?
-
Have a sound network through Asia Pacific to build upon
-
Uniquely placed to offer better insight to region
- Research and innovation at the core provides a competitive advantage over scaled and standardised models
-
Invest in technology and product development
-
Grow relationship teams in key
-
How? geographies
-
Focus on lead sectors and products
-
Drawing on insights into customer industries, the region and the financial markets adds significant value
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41
Global Institutional – a focus on growing core customer relationships supporting income performance
Cross Border Income
Customer Income[1]
Customer Growth
Super Regional strategy increasingly capturing cross border revenue flows
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1,100 new relationship managed
customers ex-acquisitions
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Domestic Cross
Booked Border 21%
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----- Start of picture text -----
14% CAGR
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Strong Customer Relationships
Debt Capital Markets a key strength
-
Peter Lee Associates survey of corporate and institutional clients in Australia ranked ANZ:
-
1 Bookrunner in Australia/NZ for Q1-Q3 2010 in terms of volume and number of transactions
-
First, or equal first, on 14 of the 26 qualitative relationship categories (up from 8 in FY09)
-
1 Mandated Lead Arranger in Asia-Pacific (ex Japan) for Q1-Q3 2010 in terms of number of transactions
-
-
First in "overall penetration" (domestic plus offshore)
-
Peter Lee Associates survey of corporate and institutional clients in New Zealand ranked ANZ first on overall satisfaction, relationship strength, penetration and a further 17 measures
-
These results reflect the strength and quality of our client relationships
-
1 Arranger of syndicated loans in Asia-Pacific (ex Japan) over the last five years in terms of total loan volume on a cumulative basis
-
1 on the A$ Corporate Bond League Table (INSTO)
-
1 in the utilities & infrastructure sector - ANZ has led over half of all Australian utility and infrastructure transactions and raised over A$2.3bn in this sector
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- Total income adjusted for Global Markets trading income.
42
Global Markets
Global Markets Income Sales & Trading Mix (A$m)[1]
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2,062
1,816
49%
1,225 43%
857 36%
29%
51% 57%
71% 64%
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-
Capital Markets growth underlines the benefits of Asian network expansion, ensuring we are well placed to connect our institutional customers with Asian liquidity pools.
-
Income diversification by geography and product line helping to offset revenue normalisation as volatility recedes.
-
2H10 investment in Global Markets management team to deliver scalable growth in coming years.
-
FX Adjusted.
Product Contribution % Total Income
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Whilst lower than 2009, market volatility evident in 2010
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Global Institutional
43
Global Institutional P&L drivers
Underlying Performance[1] YOY Movement (FY10 vs. FY09) A$m
Business Segment Performance[1] YOY Movement (FY10 vs. FY09) A$m
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large 14% (22%) large
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2
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----- Start of picture text -----
2% 14% (46%) 23%
Up 29%
2H10 vs
3% 10% (29%) 2% 13%
1H10
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Geographic Performance[1] YOY Movement (FY10 vs. FY09) A$m
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-
Pro forma basis assumes Royal bank of Scotland Asia acquisition took effect from 1 October 2008 and also adjusts for exchange rate movements which have impacted the FY10 results. .
-
Increase largely due to provisions in FY09 related to divested custody business.
44
Investing across the business in systems and people
Expense Growth[1]
Asia Pacific, Europe & America
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----- Start of picture text -----
YOY HOH
31% 13%
10% 8%
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-
Continued investment in growing the Asia franchise and driving customer acquisition
-
Investment in support infrastructure to underpin revenue growth
Australia
-
Investment in frontline capability - people and CRM tools - to drive revenue uplift
-
Rollout of cash management platform (Transactive) - with in excess of 2,500 Institutional clients now on boarded.
-
Investment in systems to enhance process automation and integrated work flow management and in enablement staff to ensure an efficient, well controlled environment
New Zealand
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(1%) 16%
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-
Strong cost management led to a YoY reduction in expenses
-
HoH increase reflects investment in payments systems (including settlement before interchange) and in cash management platform
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- Pro forma basis assumes Royal bank of Scotland Asia acquisition took effect from 1 October 2008 and also adjusts for exchange rate movements which have impacted the FY10 results.
Global Institutional
45
Predicated on disciplined execution
Implementation priorities
Sustained customer growth
-
Deepening relationships with existing 3500 active clients
-
Targeting a significant number of new customer relationships already identified:
-
Over 50% of customer growth expected from APEA, 25% from Corporate
Process redesign
- Simplifying operating platforms and standardising procedures
Risk management
- Effectively partnering with risk and introducing industry specialists in priority markets
Equipping the team
-
Building a high performance culture
-
Recruiting and training across
-
Asia, Operations, Relationships, Cash, Markets and Trade
-
Investing heavily in institutional banking executive leadership and product expertise
Significant growth opportunities
Estimated addressable Cash Management Revenue pools
($b)
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----- Start of picture text -----
17%
of pool
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- Significantly expanding research capabilities within priority segments
* Korea, Thailand, Vietnam
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46
Priority segments – Natural resources & Agriculture
Natural resources
Agriculture
-
Well positioned to develop a super regional natural resources business linking Australian producers with Asian processors and consumers
-
Clients and representation in all major domestic cities, major financial centres globally and 15 Asian markets
-
Strong Australian natural resources client base and an established and growing network in Asia
-
Growing soft commodity demand from Asia
-
Well positioned for Australian and NZ Corporate and Institutional agriculture clients
-
Primary emphasis on providing Markets, Working Capital and supply-chain solutions to clients
-
Revenue streams centred on trade and FX which are already core competencies
-
Revenues exceed that of the other 3 major domestic banks combined
-
Specialists mineral mining, oil & gas, mineral and oil and gas processing, commodity trading, primary services segments
-
An organic growth strategy with increasing wallet penetration of existing clients as well as capturing identified targets.
-
Markets include cereals & sugar, protein cotton, Dairy and Oil Seeds
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47
Priority segments – Infrastructure
-
Goal to become a leading commercial Infrastructure Bank in the Asia Pacific Region
-
Maintain dominant position in Australia and NZ and invest selectively in Asia
Addressable revenue in APAC Infrastructure market set to grow to $5.5b
Debt Markets Txn. Banking Debt Capital Mkts. Advice Equity
(A$m)
-
Infrastructure specialists , by adding Advisory, Equity placement, underwriting and DCM to lending and markets capabilities.
-
Focus on power and utilities corresponding with Asia demand in this category
-
ROE enhancing by reduced requirement of balance sheet
-
Segments include Power & Utilities, Economic Infrastructure (roads, airports etc) and Availability Infrastructure
-
The New Zealand Government has announced a significant National Infrastructure Plan and we are uniquely positioned to assist
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48
Priority products – Cash Management & Trade
Cash Management
-
Vision to be a lead provider of pan-regional cash management solutions via a single transactional interface
-
Estimate the Asia Pacific wallet for cash management services at $20b
Trade
-
Support trade flows between our core operating geographies
-
Build on strong market position in Australia and established presence and reputation as a trade bank in Asia
-
A significant driver of cross-sell revenue
-
Investment agenda centred around people and technology and designed to accommodate substantial growth in customer numbers and transaction volume
Estimated market share of Australian Institutional Trade Business
- Rolling out ANZ Transactive, a web-based cash management platform purpose-built for institutional, corporate and large business clients
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International Peer
Domestic Peer
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49
Priority products – Regional Rates and FX; Commodities and Debt Capital Markets
Commodities
-
Commodity revenue split:
-
Hedging exposures of commodity producers and consumers ~ 60% of revenue
-
Trading for customers ~ 40%
-
Growth opportunities include capturing hedging opportunities in domestic agri/ middle market and commodity consumers in Asia
Debt Capital Markets
-
Uniquely positioned with Super Regional strategy, with significant Asian Capital Market revenue pools
-
Borrower / investor multiplier effect
-
We raise more debt capital in Asia for Australian and New Zealand borrowers than anyone else ANZ
| Borrowers | Global Capital Markets |
Investors | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seeking access to low cost capital and related hedging • Corporates • Financial Institutions • Public sector |
Team • Research, advice • Loan syndication • Bonds • Securitisation • Hedging |
Seeking diverse and quality credit exposure • Wholesale (funds • insurers) • Public sector |
Regional Rates and FX
-
Largest domestic markets business
-
FX revenues growing at 40% pa since 2007,
-
Aus/NZ/Pacific Niche, opportunity to expand into Asian currencies & clients (to become Asian USD specialist)
-
Rates revenues growing at 75% pa since 2006
-
5 key rates components, natural growth opportunity as Institutional expands:
-
Hedging client interest rates
-
Hedging client currency futures and swaps (as driven by rate differentials)
-
Selling investors Gvt. and Semi Gvt. bonds
-
Rates and credit trading
-
Managing ANZ‟s balance sheet
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50
Our Institutional client transactions tell the story
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Debt Capital Markets Project, Asset & Export Financing
USD 600mn SGD 1bn AUD 1.75bn USD 600mn USD 263.7mn AUD 1.179bn
Senior Unsecured Bonds Senior Unsecured Bonds Acquisition of CSR Limited‟s Term Facilities to refinance Hope Finance for deliveries from Finance of the acquisition of
sugar and renewable energy Downs 1 & fund development of Nokia Siemens Network Port of Brisbane by Q Port
Joint Lead Manager andBookrunner Melco Crown Entertainment Joint Lead Manager andBookrunner Temasek Wilmar International business, Sucrogen LimitedFinancial Advisor Hope Downs 4 in Western AustraliaMandated Lead Arranger Hope Downs Iron Ore Pty Ltd iron ore projects Lender Telkomsel ECA: Finnvera Mandated Lead Arranger, Facility Agent and Security TrusteeHoldings Consortium
2010 2010 2010 November 2010 2010 November 2010
PHP 2bn SGD 500mn AUD 3.1bn AUD 461.572mn AUD 478mn NZD 150mn
Senior Unsecured Bonds Senior Unsecured Bonds Structuring and arranging for Project Financing of Collgar Construction and Term Facilities Finance for Meridian‟s purchase
expansion of coal export Wind Farm for the 206MW Collgar Wind of Siemens wind turbines for the
terminal to 53Mtpa ECA: EKF/ELO Farm in Western Australia Te Uku wind farm
Metrobank Card Corporation Singapore Airlines Newcastle Coal Collgar Wind Farm Mandated Lead Arranger, ECA ECA: ELO/EKF
Joint Lead Manager andBookrunner Joint Lead Manager andBookrunner Financial Advisor Infrastructure Group Managed Lead Arranger,ECA Arranger & Advisor Arranger and Agent, Facility Agent and Security Trustee Meridian Wind Farm Arranger & ECA Agent
2010 June 2010 2010 June 2010 March 2010 April 2010
Syndication Transaction Banking
AUD 2.3mn & INTEGRATED AUD GBP 75mn
USD 1.1bn USD 200mn
USD 200mn 65mn SOLUTION USD 150mn
Syndicated Term Loan Facility Syndicated Term Facility Cash & transaction Financing and working capital Bi-lateral Letter of Credit
management, FX/Interest rate for palm oil plantation interests Facility to meet regulatory
Woodside Petroleum Ltd Origin Energy Starhill Global REIT hedging and secured financing New Britain Palm Oil QBE Group requirements in UK and US
Mandated Lead Arranger andBookrunner Mandated Lead Arranger and Bookrunner Acquisition of David Jones Building in Perth Mandated Lead Arranger Letter of Credit Facility
2010 2010 2010 2010 November 2010
TRANSACTION CASH
AUD 430mn USD 1.0bn SGD 223mn
BANKING MANAGEMENT
Syndicated Term Loan Facility Syndicated Term Facility Internet banking platform for Sole Provider of Transaction Securitisation warehouse –
Sinochem Hong Kong regional hub Banking and Merchant Services credit card receivables
(Group) Company Limited in Australia
Mandated Lead Arranger, Underwriter and Bookrunner Qantas Airways Limited Term Loan Facility Mandated Lead Arranger & Bookrunnerguarranteed by Group Sinochem CMC Markets Singapore Vodafone Hutchison Australia Card Centre Asset Purchase Company
2010 August 2010 2010 December 2010 September 2010
51
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AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED
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Treasury
ANZ’s strong capital ratios are fully reflected when measured consistently across various jurisdictions
| Sep 09 | Mar 10 | Sep 10 | FSA Sep 10 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Core Tier 1(1) | 9.0% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 11.3% |
| Tier 1 | 10.6% | 10.7% | 10.1% | 13.5% |
| Total Capital | 13.7% | 13.0% | 11.9% | 15.2% |
Capital Update:
-
ANZ‟s capital strength reflects ongoing economic and regulatory uncertainty and the Group‟s aim to maintain flexibility
-
Net organic Tier-1 generation +22bps:
-
Underlying earnings net of dividends +119bps;
-
RWA growth -48bps (principally non traded market risk);
-
Profit retention in Insurance and banking associates (-23bps) and software (-11bps)
-
Impact of acquisitions reduced Tier-1 by 131bps, partly offset by net Tier-1 hybrid issuances (+63bps)
Capital Agenda:
-
Continue to be well capitalised and consistent with “AA” long term credit rating category
-
Manage Basel 3 implementation:
-
Final Basel 3 regulations on capital deductions, minimums and buffers, and Tier-1 and Tier-2 regulations expected Dec-10
-
Engage APRA throughout FY11 on interpretation and implementation of these changes
-
Full alignment to proposed Basel 3 guidelines would result in an increase in Core Tier-1 ratio from current levels
-
However, APRA have indicated the Basel 3 rules are likely to be viewed as a minimum standard
-
-
74 cent Final Dividend up 32% PCP (FY10 $1.26 up 24% PCP)
-
1.5% DRP discount retained to provide capital flexibility and continuity for shareholders
-
„Core Tier 1‟ = Tier 1 excluding hybrid Tier 1 instruments
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Treasury
53
Core Tier-1 level remains strong and well positioned
Capital Position (Core Tier-1 Ratio)
Portfolio growth & mix 19bp decrease Risk migration 3bp increase Portfolio data review 4bp increase ING 79bp decrease Non credit RWA 27bp decrease RBS 20bp decrease Landmark 7bp decrease Integration Costs 10bp decrease ING Debt Funding 9bp decrease
Net organic up 34bp Down 91bp
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1 3
2
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- Underlying NPAT. 2. Includes impact of movement in Expected Loss versus Collective Provision shortfall, 3. Includes ING Insurance Business, Asian Banking Associates, Capitalised Costs and Software, FX, Net Deferred Tax Assets, Pensions, MTM gains on own name included in profit
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Treasury
54
Tier-1 position reduced during FY10 due to recent acquisitions partially offset by Hybrid issuance
Capital Position (Tier-1 Ratio)
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Portfolio growth & mix 23bp decrease
Risk migration 4bp increase
Portfolio data review 5bp increase ING 79bp decrease
Non credit RWA 34bp decrease RBS 24bp decrease
Landmark 9bp decrease
Integration Costs 10bp decrease
ING Debt Funding 9bp decrease
Net organic up 22bp
Down 46bp
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----- Start of picture text -----
1 3
2
----- End of picture text -----
- Underlying NPAT. 2. Includes impact of movement in Expected Loss versus Collective Provision shortfall. 3. Includes ING Insurance Business, Asian Banking Associates, Capitalised Costs and Software, FX, Net Deferred Tax Assets, Pensions, MTM gains on own name included in profit
Treasury
55
Reconciliation of ANZ’s capital position to FSA Basel 2 uidelines g
APRA regulations are more conservative than current FSA regulations, in that APRA requires:
-
A 20% Loss Given Default floor for mortgages (FSA: 10% floor)
-
Interest Rate Risk in the Banking Book (IRRBB) included in Pillar I risks (FSA: Pillar II)
-
Capital deductions for investments in funds management subsidiaries (FSA: RWA assets)
-
Insurance subsidiaries to be a mixture of Tier 1 and Tier 2 deductions (FSA: transitional regulations permit Total Capital deductions under certain circumstances)
-
Expected dividend payments (net of dividend reinvestments) to be deducted from Tier-1 (FSA: no deduction)
-
Collective Provision to be net of tax when calculating EL v CP deduction (FSA: tax effect difference between EL and CP on gross basis)
-
Associates to be a mixture of Tier-1 and Tier-2 deductions (FSA: permits proportional consolidation under certain circumstances)
| Core Tier-1 | Tier 1 | Total Capital | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep-10 under APRA standards | 8.0% | 10.1% | 11.9% |
| RWA (Mortgages, IRRBB) | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.6% |
| ING Funds Management and Life Co. businesses | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Final dividend accrued net of DRP & BOP | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% |
| Expected Losses v Collective Provision | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| Insurance subsidiaries (excluding ING businesses) | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Investment in associates | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.4% |
| Other1 | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| Total adjustments | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.3% |
| Sep-10 FSA equivalent ratio | 11.3% | 13.5% | 15.2% |
- Other includes Net Deferred Tax Assets, Capitalised Expenses, Deferred Income and roundings.
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Treasury
56
Basel 3 & APRA Regulatory reform - Capital
Basel Committee Announcements
To date, the Basel Committee has announced:
-
New capital targets and buffers
-
Timetable and transition rules for implementation of Basel 3 from 2013 – 2019
-
Higher Core Tier-1 capital deductions: insurance businesses, banking associates, and shortfall of EL v CP, partly offset by 10/15% threshold allowance for insurance/banking associates and deferred tax assets
-
Higher RWA charges for market & credit risks and securitisation assets
-
Leverage ratio based on Tier-1 capital
What remains outstanding under B3?
-
Methodology for determining countercyclical buffer
-
Final requirements for Tier-1 & 2 instruments
-
Contingent and „bail-in‟ capital requirements
-
Capital overlays for systematically important banks
ANZ position under B3 rules:
-
ANZ‟s estimated Core Tier-1 position under full B3 rules is above the proposed 7.0% min.
-
Position will remain uncertain until APRA finalises domestic rules and re-calibration. Recent indications are that local rules will at least meet the proposed new global standards
-
Leverage ratio unlikely to be a binding constraint
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Core Tier-1 surplus
over 7.00% 9.5%
~9.2% [1]
Counter
8.0% cyclical
7.0% buffer [2]
0-2.5%
Capital
Buffer:
2.5%
Additional Basel 3 Full alignment to Basel Minimum
requirements target:
~ -140bps ~ +260bps 4.5%
2
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-
Subject to change pending final form of regulations
-
Counter-cyclical buffer expected to be comprised of Core Tier-1, Tier-1 Hybrids and contingent capital.
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Treasury
57
Improved funding profile achieved, stable term debt issuance
Stable term funding profile
Key Funding Metrics
- 82% of all funded assets financed by equity, deposits & LT debt (was 78% as at Sep „09 & 71% Sep „08)
Issuance
Maturities
-
$26.4b of term funding (including $2.4b of pre funding and $2b CPS2 hybrid) issued in 2010
-
Weighted average term of new issuance was 4.7yrs
-
Similar term funding task for FY11 of ~$25bn; 10% of which has been pre funded
-
$13.5b of surplus APEA funding provided to Aus/NZ
-
Offshore short-term wholesale debt makes up 2% of total funding for the Australian & NZ geographies
Funding Composition Improved
Short Term Wholesale Funding Term Debt < 1 year Residual Maturity Term Debt > 1 year Residual Maturity Customer Funding
Shareholders equity & Hybrid Debt
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Treasury
58
ANZ’s term debt issuance consistent and well diversified
APEA funding benefit reduces term debt issuance by ~10%
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APEA surplus
deposits
Domestic
AUD/NZD
Offshore Private
Placements
Multi-currency
Japan
JPY
North
America
UK & Europe USD/CAD
EUR / GBP / CHF
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Offshore public benchmarks account for less than half of ANZ’s annual term debt issuance
Marginal term funding costs have stabilised but average costs continue to increase as portfolio reprices
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Treasury
59
Strong Liquidity Position leading into proposed B3 changes
Basel III Liquidity Developments
Maintaining post GFC liquidity position ($b)
- Reduction in required core funding of mortgages from 100% to 65%
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-
Improved treatment of „Retail‟ and „SME‟ deposits
-
Allowance for high grade corporate and covered bonds as liquid assets
-
Recognition of jurisdictions (incl. Australia) that have insufficient qualifying liquid assets. Allowance for a committed liquidity facility from a central bank to be used – at a fee
-
Extended transition period
Impacts
- Liquidity Coverage Ratio will require additional liquid assets (where available) to be held resulting in higher core funding requirements (remaining deficit meet via central bank facility)
Composition of liquid asset portfolio ($66.7b)
-
This is primarily driven by non-operational deposits from Corporates and Financial Institutions, and short term wholesale debt
-
Australian bank‟s no longer discouraged from holding mortgages on-balance sheet
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Class 1 Class 2 Class 3
$28.9b $7.3b $30.5b
Govt. Bank or Corporate Internal RMBS
paper rated AA or
better
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- Given the lack of eligible liquid assets in Australia, APRA will allow banks to meet their LCR requirements through a committed liquidity facility at the RBA backed by repo eligible stock
Government/ Semi Govt. / Govt. Guaranteed bank paper, NZ cash with RBNZ, supranational paper
- The banks will pay a fee for this facility in line with cost of holding BIII eligible liquid assets
Priority of use
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Treasury
60
AUD strength presents a headwind for future earnings
-
~1.2% negative impact, including current hedging positions, on FY11 EPS growth expected if the AUD maintains current levels
-
NZD remains the most significant single currency revenue exposure
-
USD and Asian local currency earnings expected to grow as a proportion of total Group revenue as
-
Super Regional Strategy gains momentum
-
Hedging approach remains to put in place macro and specific currency hedges only when the $A is perceived to be significantly below fair value
FY10 profit before tax by currency
| NZD | USD & Asian | |
|---|---|---|
| earnings | currency earnings |
|
| FY10 earnings: effective average translation rate |
1.221 | 0.899 |
| FY10 EPS impact | (0.3%) | (2.7%) |
| Hedging in place for | ~40% | ~40% |
| FY11 | @ 1.20 | @ 0.91 |
| EPS sensitivity to 5c move inc hedging |
~0.1% | ~0.5% |
- In addition there is typically A$500m–750m of secondary FX risk due to non AUD & NZD revenues generated primarily by Markets business in Australia and New Zealand.
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Treasury
61
AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED
Risk Management
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Credit Risk Weighted Assets
Total Credit Risk Weighted Assets Credit RWA Movement FY10 vs. FY09
A$b
A$b
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Acquisitions Impact:
RBS $4.6b
Landmark $2.3b
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Risk
63
Impaired Asset balance has reduced ex-acquisitions
Gross Impaired Assets By type
Gross Impaired Assets By size of exposure
A$m
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A$m
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New Impaired Assets
NPCCD – Non Performing Credit Commitments and Contingencies
By Segment
A$m
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Risk
64
Watch & Control Lists and Risk Grade Profiles
Watch & Control List by limits (Mar 2009 Watch List index =100)
Group Risk Grade profile by Exposure at Default
Index
Top 5 Watch List Industries
| By Exposure | By No. Groups |
|---|---|
| Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing | Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing |
| Mining | Property Services |
| Finance & Insurance | Manufacturing |
| Property Services | Wholesale Trade |
| Manufacturing | Construction |
Watch List - An alert report of customers with characteristics identified which could result in requirement for closer credit attention
Control List - A report of high risk accounts which may or may not have defaulted
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Risk
65
90+ days past due Australia
Australia Mortgages 90+ day delinquencies
Australia Cards 90+ day delinquencies
Australia Commercial 90+ day delinquencies
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Risk
66
Australia Mortgages
Portfolio Statistics
- All lending is on a full recourse basis
Dynamic Loan to Valuation Ratio
Sep 2010 - 84% 12% 4%
-
Approvals require demonstrated serviceability
-
~830,000 loans on book
-
65% of portfolio owner occupied lending
-
Average loan size at origination ~$226k
-
Average LVR at origination - 63%
-
Average dynamic LVR – 46%
-
No subprime mortgages
-
LoDoc 80 loans (80% LVR) make up less than circa 1.3% of portfolio and closed to new flows
Application Quality Average Score New Applications
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Risk
67
New Zealand – Risk Performance
Total Impaired Assets and as % Gross Lending Assets
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(NZ$m)
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Total Provision Charge
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(NZ$m)
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90+ Days Arrears
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68
Commercial Property Credit Exposure
Commercial Property Exposure GLA by Region (A$b)
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7.5% of Group GLA‟s
29.6
28.2
27.7
27.2 26.7
26.1
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Commercial Property Exposure by Sector
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69
AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED
Economics
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Exceptionally strong investment outlook over next few years
| 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 |
$bn | $bn | $bn | $bn | $bn | $bn | $bn | $bn | $bn | $bn | $bn | $bn | $bn |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Communication sub-total Water & sewerage Sub-total Manufacturing Sub-total Uncertainty |
|||||||||||||
Gas Pipeline sub-total Electricity Sub-total Mining Sub-total |
|||||||||||||
| ~~Energy Sub-total~~ Airports Sub-total Rail sub-total Ports sub-total |
|||||||||||||
| ~~Roads Sub-total~~ | |||||||||||||
| 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 |
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Sources: Access Economics and ANZ
71
The outlook for mining investment has rarely been stronger
ABARE Advanced Mining Projects, June 2010
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72
Sources: ABARE
Record population growth coupled with undersupply
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Population growth vs. dwelling completions
225,000
450,000
Annual population
gain (lhs)
400,000
200,000
350,000
175,000
300,000
250,000 150,000
200,000
125,000
150,000
Annual dwelling completions
(rhs)
100,000 100,000
76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
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Sources: ABS, ANZ Economics and Markets Research
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73
Housing shortage has reached unprecedented levels
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Housing market balance
„000
400
360
320
280
240
Underlying demand
200
160
120 Completions
80
Cumulative Shortage
40
0
-40
-80 Surplus
86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
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Sources: ABS, ANZ Economics and Markets Research
74
Recovery in dwelling prices has been broadly-based
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Australian dwelling prices
Price index value
125
Top 20%
120
115 Middle 60%
110 Bottom 20%
105
100
95
Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10
Source: RP Data Rismark
75
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Changing composition in those seeking finance approvals
Housing finance approvals (value)
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Sources: ABS, RBA, ANZ Economics and Markets Research
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76
Distribution of debt rather than the aggregate debt is a key factor…
Increased household debt has been directed towards residential property, not personal consumption
And has been taken up by higher income households with the capacity to service
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Source: RBA paper “Aspects of Australia‟s finances” 15 June 2010
77
Complexion of household debt
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Source: RBA paper “Aspects of Australia‟s finances” 15 June 2010
-
Household debt up but also total
-
assets held by households
-
•Debt largely used to acquire assets
-
•Financial assets (i.e. ex housing) now equivalent to 2.75 years of income up from 1.75 years of income in the early 1990‟s
-
•Increased debt mostly taken on by households in the strongest position to service it (high income quintile)
-
•Households in the top two quintiles account for 75% of all outstanding debt
-
•Bottom two income quintiles account for 10% of household debt
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78
Australian house prices
Fundamentals are sound
-
Nominal house prices and ratio to income elevated
-
House price to income ratio ignores interest rates / debt servicing
-
Fundamentals are currently very supportive
-
Housing shortage worsening
-
Cyclical upturn underpinned by resources boom and authorities well placed to respond to any future crisis
Household sector well placed
-
Economy/labour market solid, unemployment falling – few forced sales (historically a pre-requisite for significant price falls)
-
Low delinquencies reflect comfortable debt servicing
-
Lending standards critical to sustainability
Financial system solid
-
On balance sheet lending = incentives re. sustainable serviceability
-
Conservative lending = low delinquencies
-
Full recourse lending cf. US = less incentive to default
-
Variable interest rate policy works
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79
Conservative lending, supportive policy and strong economy has meant a very resilient housing market
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Source : RBA
80
Australian house prices have broadly tracked incomes since 2004 (incomes rising strongly due to terms of trade)
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House price to income ratio
Index
18
Australia US UK New Zealand
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09
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Sources: RP Data-Rismark, RBA, ANZ Economics and Markets Research
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81
A structural lowering (halving) of mortgage rates has significantly improved debt serviceability
Mortgage interest rates
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20
Australia US
18
UK NZ
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
On average, mortgage rates have halved justifying a
near doubling of house price to income ratios
2
0
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81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
Sources: ABS, Datastream, ANZ Economics and Markets Research
82
Increase in house price to income ratio almost fully accounted for by the halving of mortgage rate
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Median house Average household House price to
Mortgage rate
price income income
$000's $000's %
ratio
600 120 16
6
14
500 100
5
12
400 80
4
10
300 60 8
3
6
200 40
2
4
100 20
1
2
0 0 0
0
1985 2009 1985 2009 1985 2009
1985 2009
Sources: ABS, RBA, ANZ Economics and Markets Research
83
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Household incomes and consumption
Household disposable income & consumption
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%
10
Gross disposable income Consumption spending
Savings rate
8
Forecasts
6
4
2
0
-2
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
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Source: ANZ, RBA, ABS
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84
Labour market is strong and supporting household confidence
Monthly employment and labour force growth, ‘000 people (trend)
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40
Labourforce growth (trend)
Employment growth (trend)
30
20
10
0
-10
Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10
'000 change per month
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Source: ABS
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85
1990’s commercial property downturn characterised by significant oversupply vs other downturns[1]
Supply Pipeline as a % of Total Stock Australian CBD Office Market
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle. 1. with the exception of WA & QLD
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86
Australia has run a current account deficit for most of the past 150 years
Current account deficit
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-
The current account deficit is the gap between national saving and national investment
-
That Australia has run a deficit for such a long period suggests the country has more investment opportunities than it can fund out of domestic saving
-
By running such deficits and capitalising on these investment opportunities, Australia has been able to grow its economy and labour market at a much faster rate than if it had relied solely on domestic saving. Our living standard will have been considerably lower on domestic saving alone.
-
A natural consequence of running continual current account deficits (flow) is a build up in net foreign liabilities (stock) – from 40% of GDP in 1989 to 60% of GDP in 2009.
Sources: ABS, RBA, Butlin
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87
AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED
Economics – Forecasts
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Economic updates
Australia New Zealand
| 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP | 0.9 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 4.1 | -2.5 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 4.3 |
| Inflation | 1.3 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 4.91 | 2.3 |
| Unemployment | 5.8 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 7.1 | 6.4 | 5.5 | 5.5 |
| Current A/C (% GDP) | -3.3 | -3.6 | -2.6 | -4.0 | -3.3 | -3.8 | -3.7 | -3.9 |
| Cash rate | 3.00 | 4.50 | 5.25 | 5.75 | 2.50 | 3.00 | 3.75 | 4.75 |
| 10 year bonds | 5.36 | 4.96 | 5.80 | 5.70 | 5.8 | 5.0 | 5.9 | 5.8 |
| AUD/USD | 0.88 | 0.97 | 1.02 | 0.95 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| AUD/NZD | 1.22 | 1.32 | 1.36 | 1.34 | 1.22 | 1.32 | 1.36 | 1.34 |
| Credit | 1.7 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 4.7 | 3.6 | 0.6 | 4.5 | 5.7 |
| - Housing | 7.6 | 8.0 | 5.3 | 5.6 | 3.9 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 5.1 |
| - Business2 | -4.6 | -3.7 | 1.1 | 3.3 | 3.6 | -2.8 | 5.9 | 6.5 |
| - Other | -5.5 | 2.8 | 5.2 | 4.5 | -1.8 | 2.2 | 4.1 | 4.9 |
Source - ANZ economics team estimates. Based on 30 September bank year.
-
Impacted by an increase in the Goods and Services tax rate from 12.5% to 15% effective 1 October 2010
-
NZ Business includes Rural lending
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89
Growth Forecasts – Asia
| Emerging Asia GDP Growth Forecasts | Emerging Asia GDP Growth Forecasts | Emerging Asia GDP Growth Forecasts | Emerging Asia GDP Growth Forecasts | Emerging Asia GDP Growth Forecasts | Emerging Asia GDP Growth Forecasts | Emerging Asia GDP Growth Forecasts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 |
||||||
| China | 13.0 | 9.6 | 9.1 | 10.1 | 9.6 | 9.5 |
| India | 9.5 | 7.3 | 6.8 | 9.2 | 8.4 | 9.3 |
| NIEs | ||||||
| HongKong | 6.4 | 2.4 | -2.7 | 6.5 | 5.0 | 5.2 |
| Korea | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.2 | 6.2 | 4.3 | 4.6 |
| Singapore | 8.5 | 1.8 | -1.3 | 14.5 | 4.2 | 5.9 |
| Taiwan | 5.9 | 1.1 | -1.9 | 10.6 | 5.9 | 5.7 |
| ASEAN | ||||||
| Indonesia | 6.4 | 6.0 | 4.5 | 5.9 | 6.3 | 6.3 |
| Malaysia | 6.5 | 4.7 | -1.7 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 5.6 |
| Philippines | 7.1 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 6.9 | 4.5 | 6.8 |
| Thailand | 5.0 | 2.5 | -2.3 | 7.8 | 3.4 | 4.5 |
| Vietnam | 8.5 | 6.3 | 5.3 | 6.6 | 6.5 | 6.8 |
| Total | 10.3 | 7.3 | 6.1 | 9.1 | 8.0 | 8.3 |
| Total(ex. China & India) | 6.1 | 3.3 | 0.4 | 7.4 | 4.9 | 5.5 |
| Sources: CEIC, ANZ Economics. |
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Based on calendar year.
90
The material in this presentation is general background information about the Bank‟s activities current at the date of the presentation. It is information given in summary form and does not purport to be complete. It is not intended to be relied upon as advice to investors or potential investors and does not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular investor. These should be considered, with or without professional advice when deciding if an investment is appropriate
This presentation may contain forward-looking statements including statements regarding our intent, belief or current expectations with respect to ANZ‟s business and operations, market conditions, results of operations and financial condition, capital adequacy, specific provisions and risk management practices. When used in this presentation, the words
“estimate”, “project”, “intend”, “anticipate”, “believe”, “expect”, “should” and similar expressions, as they relate to ANZ and its management, are intended to identify forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date hereof. Such statements constitute “forward-looking statements” for the purposes of the United States Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. ANZ does not undertake any obligation to publicly release the result of any revisions to these forward-looking statements to reflect events or circumstances after the date hereof to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events.
For further information visit
www.anz.com
or contact
Jill Craig Group General Manager Investor Relations
ph: (613) 8654 7749 fax: (613) 8654 9977 e-mail: [email protected]
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