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AMSC ASA — Earnings Release 2018
Nov 15, 2018
3533_rns_2018-11-15_f743ebfa-e84f-490e-84d4-798e242e5838.pdf
Earnings Release
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American Shipping Company ASA
Presentation of Q3 2018 15 November 2018
Important information
▪ Nothing herein shall create any implication that there has been no change in the affairs of American Shipping Company ASA ("AMSC" or the "Company") as of the date of this Company Presentation. This Company Presentation contains forward-looking statements relating to the Company's business, the Company's prospects, potential future performance and demand for the Company's assets, the Jones Act tanker market and other forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements concern future circumstances and results and other statements that are not historical facts, sometimes identified by the words "believes", "expects", "predicts", "intends", "projects", "plans", "estimates", "aims", "foresees", "anticipates", "targets", and similar expressions. The forward-looking statements contained in this Company Presentation, including assumptions, opinions and views of the Company or cited from third party sources, are solely opinions and forecasts which are subject to risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause actual events to differ materially from any anticipated development.
Third Quarter 2018 Highlights
- Adjusted net profit of USD 2.4 million*
- Normalized EBITDA** of USD 22.2 million
- No profit share
- DPO of USD 0.9 million
- Declared Q3 dividend of USD 0.08 per share, consistent with prior guidance
- Ex-dividend date of 21 November 2018 with payment on or about 30th November 2018
- Classified as a return of paid in capital
- Improved market conditions for Jones Act tankers
- Crude volumes to U.S. Northeast further increased
- Increased number of time charter fixture in the market
- Seasonal weaker spot market
- Limited supply growth going forward
* Net profit after tax, adjusted for non-recurring items, currency fluctuations, mark-to-market of derivatives and changes to deferred tax
** Includes DPO, reported EBITDA for Q3 18 is USD 21.3 million
Stable, Predictable EBITDA
- Normalized EBITDA* of USD 22.2 million in Q3 18 (USD 22.4 million in Q3 17)
- No profit share in Q3 18 or Q3 17
- DPO of USD 0.9 in Q3 18 (USD 0.9 million in Q3 17)
Fleet Deployment Overview
Long-term fixed rate bareboat charters to OSG secures cash flow
- AMSC's fleet is on firm BB Charters to OSG until December 2019* plus evergreen extension options
- AMSC receives fixed annual bareboat revenue of USD 88 million + ~50% of the profits generated by OSG under the time charter contracts
- OSG time charters the vessels to oil majors for U.S domestic trade
A Critical Part of Oil Majors' Transportation Logistics
Primary trade routes for Jones Act crude oil and products
The Permian Pipeline Crunch
Permian Pipeline Capacity – New Projects and Production Growth, MBDs
| Pipeline project | Start | Incremental capacity |
Total capacity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current capacity | 2.80 | ||
| Local refining | 0.50 | 3.30 | |
| BridgeTex | Q3 '18 |
0.04 | 3.34 |
| Permian Express III | Q3 '18 |
0.05 | 3.39 |
| Sunrise | Q2 '19 |
0.12 | 3.51 |
| Cactus 2 | Q4 '19 |
0.67 | 4.18 |
| Gray Oak | Q1 '20 | 0.70 | 4.88 |
| EPIC | Q2 '20 | 0.40 | 5.28 |
| Enterprise NGL | 2Q '20 | 0.10 | 5.38 |
Permian production growth has surpassed pipeline takeaway capacity – additional volumes to drive tanker demand
Majority of Fleet Carry Clean Products
8% 17% 36% 36% 3% MSC Clean USG 0% Idle1) West Coast Chemicals Crude Oil 8% 17% 22% 45% 3% 5% MSC Chemicals Idle1) West Coast Crude Oil Clean USG 2015 Total capacity: ~20 mbbls Aug 2018 Total capacity: ~27.5 mbbls
Significant upside potential for Jones Act deployment in Crude Oil
Increasing Volumes Into Florida
Crude Returning to Peak Levels on East Coast
▪ Volumes driven by spread in pricing of U.S. oil vs international alternatives
Source: EIA, Marine Traffic and AMSC analysis
Intra Gulf Crude Shipping Volumes Stabilizing
▪ Jones Act U.S. Gulf loading has stabilized at 500k barrels per day
Oil Price Spread - Key Driver for Increased Crude Shipping Volumes
PADD 3 to PADD 1 Crude Oil Moves by Number of Tanker Liftings
Crude Oil Price Spread - WTI Houston vs. Bonny Light
- On average 8 MR voyages per month of crude to U.S. Northeast refineries
-
Record thirteen voyages in September 2018
-
Crude loaded in Houston vs. West Africa needs to be minimum \$1.50 cheaper to be competitive for purchase by U.S. Northeast Refiners
- Spread has been sufficiently wide since Aug/Sept 2017
Fleet Reduction as Scrapping Continues
Fleet profile by vessel age Considerable fleet growth over the last 3 years, but scrapping likely to bring fleet back to 2015 levels
Income Statement (unaudited)
| Figures in USD million (except share and per share information) | Q3 2018 | Q3 2017 |
|---|---|---|
| Operating revenues | 22.1 | 22.1 |
| Operating expenses | (0.8) | (0.6) |
| Operating profit before depreciation - EBITDA |
21.3 | 21.5 |
| Depreciation | (8.5) | (8.6) |
| Operating profit - EBIT |
12.8 | 12.9 |
| Gain on investments | - | 2.3 |
| Net interest expense | (10.4) | (10.4) |
| Unrealized gain/(loss) on interest swaps | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Net foreign exchange gain/(loss) | - | 0.1 |
| Profit/(loss) before income tax | 2.5 | 5.0 |
| Income tax expense |
- | (1.0) |
| Non-cash income tax expense | (0.1) | (0.5) |
| Net profit / (loss) for the period * | 2.4 | 3.5 |
| Average number of common shares | 60,616,505 | 60,616,505 |
| Earnings/(loss) per share (USD) | 0.04 | 0.06 |
Balance Sheet (unaudited)
| Figures in USD millions | 30.09.2018 | 30.09.2017 |
|---|---|---|
| Vessels | 720.3 | 753.9 |
| Interest-bearing long term receivables (DPO) | 27.2 | 29.2 |
| Other non current assets | 16.4 | 17.7 |
| Derivative financial assets | 4.2 | - |
| Trade and other receivables | 0.1 | 0.6 |
| Cash held for specified uses | 2.2 | 2.4 |
| Cash and cash equivalents | 47.3 | 46.3 |
| TOTAL ASSETS | 817.7 | 850.1 |
| Total equity | 180.6 | 181.8 |
| Deferred tax liabilities | 12.3 | 20.0 |
| Interest-bearing long term debt | 580.7 | 606.6 |
| Derivative financial liabilities | - | 0.1 |
| Interest-bearing short term debt | 28.3 | 28.3 |
| Deferred revenues and other payables | 15.8 | 13.3 |
| TOTAL EQUITY AND LIABILITIES | 817.7 | 850.1 |
Cash position decreased during the quarter due to semi-annual bond interest payment
CASH DEVELOPMENT IN 3Q 18 (USD millions)
Investment Highlights
| Highlights | Comments |
|---|---|
| INCREASING DEMAND IN KEY TRADES |
▪ Soaring crude shipments from U.S. Gulf to the U.S. Northeast, highest since 2015 ▪ Growing clean volumes into Florida ▪ Jones Act rates are increasing towards peak levels seen in 2014/15 levels |
| REDUCING FLEET CAPACITY |
▪ Scrapping of older tonnage continues with 3 MR equivalents retired year to date ▪ 15 tankers and ATBs approaching 35 years or older in 2020; with Special Surveys coming up ▪ Slim orderbook with only one ATB for delivery in 2020 |
| LEADING MARKET POSITION WITH STABLE CASH FLOWS |
▪ Bareboat contracts provide stable cash flows with profit share upside potential ▪ Existing modern fleet that is integral to OSG's business ▪ Well positioned to take advantage of growth opportunities in a strengthening market |