Skip to main content

AI assistant

Sign in to chat with this filing

The assistant answers questions, extracts KPIs, and summarises risk factors directly from the filing text.

AMPOL LIMITED Earnings Release 2015

Feb 22, 2016

64361_rns_2016-02-22_7065b482-c47b-480c-b57a-dfe9413b9faa.pdf

Earnings Release

Open in viewer

Opens in your device viewer

BY ELECTRONIC LODGEMENT

ASX ANNOUNCEMENT

==> picture [36 x 51] intentionally omitted <==

CALTEX AUSTRALIA LIMITED ACN 004 201 307

LEVEL 24, 2 MARKET STREET SYDNEY NSW 2000 AUSTRALIA

23 February 2016

Company Announcements Office Australian Securities Exchange

CALTEX AUSTRALIA LIMITED

2015 FULL YEAR RESULTS MEDIA RELEASE AND PRESENTATION AND 2016 AGM

2015 full year results media release and presentation

Caltex Australia Limited (Caltex) will make a presentation to analysts and investors at 10:00am (Sydney time) today in relation to Caltex’s 2015 full year results. The presentation will be made by Julian Segal (Managing Director & CEO) and Simon Hepworth (Chief Financial Officer). The ASX/Media Release and presentation slides for the presentation are attached for immediate release to the market.

The presentation to analysts and investors is being webcast. The webcast can be viewed from our website (www.caltex.com.au). An archive copy of the webcast will also be available from the website.

Over the remainder of February and March 2016, Caltex will make a number of presentations to investors and analysts. These presentations will be based on the material provided in the 2015 Preliminary Final Report and 2015 Financial Report (which were lodged earlier today) and the attached ASX/Media Release and presentation slides.

2016 Annual General Meeting

Caltex’s 2016 Annual General Meeting will be held at 10:00am on Thursday, 5 May 2016 at the Wesley Conference Centre, 220 Pitt Street, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.

The 2015 Annual Report and 2015 Annual Review (for shareholders who have elected to receive a printed copy of the report), notice of meeting and proxy form will be sent to shareholders in April 2016.

==> picture [57 x 44] intentionally omitted <==

Peter Lim

Company Secretary

ASX – 2014 Full Year Results Media Release and Presentation and 2015 AGM

==> picture [109 x 37] intentionally omitted <==

Caltex Australia

ASX/Media Release For immediate release 23 February 2016

Caltex delivers record RCOP profit. Off-market buy-back announced

Key points:

  • Full year historic cost profit after tax (HCOP) of $522 million, including significant items

  • Record full year RCOP[1] NPAT of $628 million, excluding significant items

  • Underlying Supply & Marketing result up 5% to $675 million EBIT (excluding externalities)

  • Excellent Lytton refinery operational performance, capitalising on strong refiner margins

  • Significant items of $29 million gain after tax, relating to the previously announced first half sale of surplus land

  • Net debt at 31 December 2015 of $432 million, reflecting stronger second half profitability, Tabula Rasa related working capital reductions and the net impact of lower crude and product prices and the lower Australian dollar

  • Final dividend of 70 cents per share (fully franked) (full year 117 cps, fully franked), up 67%

  • $270 million off-market buy-back announced, reflecting balance sheet strength and availability of surplus franking credits.

Results summary Full Year ended 31 December Full Year ended 31 December
2015 2014
Historic Cost result after tax
Includingsignificant items
$M
$522
$M
$20
RCOP result:
After tax
Excluding significant items
Before interest and tax
Excluding significant items
$628
$977
$493
$795

Historic cost basis

On an historic cost profit basis, Caltex recorded an after tax profit of $522 million for the 2015 full year, including a gain relating to significant items of $29 million after tax. This compares with the 2014 full year profit of $20 million, which included significant losses of $112 million after tax, relating to restructuring costs associated with the company transformation.

The 2015 result includes a product and crude oil inventory loss of $135 million after tax. This compares with the inventory loss of $361 million after tax in 2014.


1 The replacement cost of sales operating profit (RCOP) excludes the impact of the fall or rise in oil prices (a key external factor) and presents a clearer picture of the company's underlying business performance. It is calculated by restating the cost of sales using the replacement cost of goods sold rather than the historic cost, including the effect of contract-based revenue lags.

Caltex Australia Limited ACN 004 201 307

  • 2 -

Replacement cost operating profit

On an RCOP basis, Caltex recorded an after tax profit for the 2015 full year of $628 million, excluding significant items. This compares with an RCOP after tax profit of $493 million for the 2014 full year, excluding significant items.

The overall result reflects an improved Supply & Marketing result incorporating the now established Ampol Singapore sourcing and supply operations and company-wide Tabula Rasa benefits (cost and capital efficiencies), offset by the ongoing competitiveness of wholesale and commercial markets and additional costs of operating the new Kurnell terminal. Favourable US dollar denominated refiner margins, supported by a lower Australian dollar, have underpinned a record Lytton refinery financial result.

Supply & Marketing delivered an EBIT of $672 million. This result includes a realised loss on US dollar denominated product payables of $26 million (2014 loss of $26 million) less a price timing lag gain of $23 million (versus a 2014 price timing lag gain of $102 million). Excluding these net externalities (net $3 million unfavourable), the underlying Supply & Marketing EBIT of $675 million, is up 5% on the 2014 result.

Sales volumes are 5% below last year, reflecting lower diesel demand as a number of LNG projects near completion and the timing of some major supply contracts. Caltex has vigorously defended contract volumes in 2015 and secured new supply volumes in 2016. From a product mix perspective, Caltex continues to drive premium fuels sales (including Vortex Diesel). Higher sales of premium grades of petrol and retail diesel continue to offset the long term decline in demand for unleaded petrol, including E10. The increased penetration of premium Vortex products has been driven by targeted investment in growth, including new retail service stations, the refurbishment of existing service stations and increased marketing spend.

The Lytton Refinery has delivered a record 2015 EBIT contribution of $406 million. This compares with an EBIT contribution of $218 million for 2014 and a 2015 first half EBIT of $134 million. The 2015 result has benefitted from a strong operating performance following Lytton refinery’s major first half Turnaround & Inspection (T&I) that has enabled the refinery to take advantage of these favourable conditions. This result also includes T&I related supply costs of $23 million (including $20 million previously allocated to Supply and Marketing within the first half results).

The realised Caltex Refiner Margin (CRM)[1] averaged US$16.46/bbl for the 2015 full year. This compares to the first half 2015 average of US$16.00/bbl and the 2014 full year (US$12.42/bbl). A strong Singapore Weighted Average Margin has been boosted by lower crude premiums, yield loss and net freight costs, year on year. The lower than forecast December average Dated Brent crude oil price of US$38.21/bbl favourably impacted the refiner margin compared with that assumed in the 17 December 2015 profit outlook (US$40/bbl).

Corporate costs increased to $102 million. This is higher than 2014 ($81 million), reflecting an increased investment in technology and new capabilities, including business development, and higher bonuses accrued in relation to the strong 2015 financial performance.

Balance sheet remains strong

Net debt at 31 December 2015 was $432 million compared with $715 million at 30 June 2015 and $639 million at 31 December 2014. The lower debt reflects stronger second half earnings, disciplined capital expenditures, and the net impact of lower crude prices and a lower Australian dollar on working capital balances.

Capital Management - Off-Market Buy-Back

Caltex has previously indicated that it was focussing on the efficient allocation of capital. The successful closure of the Kurnell refinery in 2014 and the company’s continued evolution into an integrated transport fuels value chain business, enhanced by the company’s ongoing cost and efficiency program, has resulted in significantly improved cash flows. Today, Caltex is pleased to announce its intention to conduct a $270 million off-market share buy-back, which is expected to be completed during the second quarter of 2016.


1 The Caltex Refiner Margin (CRM) represents the difference between the cost of importing a standard Caltex basket of products to Eastern Australia and the cost of importing the crude oil required to make that product basket. The CRM calculation represents: average Singapore refiner margin + product quality premium + crude discount/(premium) + product freight - crude freight - yield loss.

Caltex Australia Limited ACN 004 201 307

  • 3 -

The company’s overarching objective is to deliver top quartile Total Shareholder Returns. Our capital management framework is therefore designed to provide a balanced approach to the allocation of capital between maintenance to ensure a safe and sustainable business, investing for growth and returning capital to shareholders. The size of the buy-back will enable the return of surplus capital relative to the company’s target BBB+ credit rating, and maintain financial flexibility to take advantage of growth opportunities as they arise. Management continues to actively pursue options to grow the business based on our core capabilities including management of complex supply chains, infrastructure services and leveraging our convenience and mobility base. Our priority remains growth but, over the long term, investment in growth opportunities and/or capital management are expected to play a role in delivering top quartile shareholder returns.

All of the relevant details of the Buy-Back will be set out in a booklet which Caltex shareholders should start to receive from 3 March 2016. A summary of the buy-back details, including the proposed timetable, are contained in the 2015 Full Year Results investor presentation.

Shareholders should seek advice as to the taxation consequences for them of participating in the Buy-Back. As the Buy-Back will have different tax consequences for different shareholders, each shareholder’s decision to participate will be determined by their own personal circumstances. In some circumstances (particularly those shareholders who are on a low marginal tax rate), selling their Shares under the Buy-Back may be more advantageous to selling their Shares on market.

Dividend

The Board has declared a final fully franked dividend of 70 cents per share for the second half of 2015. Combined with the interim dividend of 47 cents per share for the first half, paid in October 2015, this equates to a total dividend of 117 cents per share for 2015, fully franked. This compares with a total dividend payout of 70 cents per share (fully franked) for 2014.

Including the interim 2015 dividend of 47 cps ($127 million), the final dividend of 70 cps ($189 million) together with the $270 million share buyback would result in total capital returns in relation to the 2015 year of around $586 million ($2.17/ share).

Caltex supplies over one third of all transport fuels in Australia and remains committed to maintaining secure and reliable supply to its commercial and retail customers.

Analyst contact: Rohan Gallagher Head of Investor Relations Phone 02 9250 5247 Email [email protected]

Media contact:

Sam Collyer Senior Media & Communications Adviser Phone 02 9250 5094 Email [email protected]

==> picture [720 x 192] intentionally omitted <==

==> picture [720 x 17] intentionally omitted <==

2015 Full Year Results Announcement

Caltex Australia Limited

ACN 004 201 307

==> picture [720 x 82] intentionally omitted <==

==> picture [720 x 10] intentionally omitted <==

AGENDA

Safety Full Year 2015: Key Highlights Strategy Update Financial Highlights Supply & Marketing Highlights Lytton Refinery Highlights Financial Discipline Result Summary & Outlook Q&A Appendices

==> picture [284 x 57] intentionally omitted <==

2

==> picture [720 x 10] intentionally omitted <==

OPERATIONAL EXCELLENCE MOMENT

==> picture [284 x 57] intentionally omitted <==

3

Operational Excellence (OE) Moment

==> picture [720 x 10] intentionally omitted <==

  • No Tier 1 or 2 Process Safety Events.

==> picture [417 x 303] intentionally omitted <==

----- Start of picture text -----

4
3.5
3.04
3 2.83
2.53
2.5 2.35
2
1.75
1.5 1.35 1.36
0.99
1
0.77
0.59 0.63 0.62
0.5
0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
TTIFR LTIFR
Per million hours worked
----- End of picture text -----

Note: From 2010 frequency rates include contractors

==> picture [284 x 57] intentionally omitted <==

  • Caltex recorded a total of 14 medically treated injuries (MTI); and 5 Lost Time Injuries (LTI) in 2015.

  • LTIFR in line with record low levels (despite increase in TTIFR which was impacted by major T&I event)

  • Lytton Refinery’s major T&I involved 400,000+ additional man hours (>1,000 contractors on site) across 50 days. Six treated injuries (including one lost time injury) were recorded, all early in the program. Excluding the T&I, personal safety improved .

  • compared with 2014

  • Completion of the Kurnell Refinery decommissioning stage, with no treated injuries (9 month project)

  • During the year company operated convenience stores (CalStores) achieved a new record of 903 days without a treated injury.

4

AGENDA

Safety Full Year 2015: Key Highlights Strategy Update Financial Highlights Supply & Marketing Highlights Lytton Refinery Highlights Financial Discipline Result Summary & Outlook Q&A Appendices

==> picture [284 x 57] intentionally omitted <==

5

Key Highlights

Full Year 2015 Results Summary

==> picture [720 x 10] intentionally omitted <==

Consolidated Group Result RCOP NPAT $628 million

  • RCOP NPAT $628 million, 27% above prior year

  • Significant item of $29 million (after tax) from sale of surplus property

  • Final dividend 70.0 cps declared (2014: 50.0 cps) fully franked (50% payout)

  • Balance sheet strong (gearing <20%), supported by improved free cash flows.

  • $270 million off-market buy-back announced

Supply & Marketing RCOP EBIT $672 million

  • Transformation of business model to an integrated transport fuel supply chain business maintains position as outright leader in transport fuels

  • x Sales volumes down 5%, mainly in the B2B sector

Includes net unfavourable externalities of $3 million

  • Sales volume growth continues for premium Vortex 98 petrol and Vortex retail diesel, whilst base unleaded petrols continue to decline

  • Ampol Singapore underpins a more efficient import supply chain

  • Lubricants volumes and margins stabilised

  • x Following Kurnell refinery closure, loss of specialties volumes and margin

Lytton refinery RCOP EBIT of $406 million

  • Lytton refinery EBIT of $406 million, up $188 million

  • Strong operational performance allowed Caltex to take advantage of favourable refiner margins.

Favourable refiner margin offsets lower anticipated (T&I related) production volumes

  • Major Turnaround and Inspection (T&I) maintenance program successfully completed in time, on budget

  • ISOM upgrade completed on time, ahead of budget (to positively impact premium fuel production, post T&I)

==> picture [284 x 57] intentionally omitted <==

6

==> picture [720 x 10] intentionally omitted <==

AGENDA

Safety Full Year 2015: Key Highlights Strategy Update Financial Highlights Supply & Marketing Highlights Lytton Refinery Highlights Financial Discipline Result Summary & Outlook Q&A Appendices

==> picture [284 x 57] intentionally omitted <==

7

Strategy Update

A focused multi-year transformation strategy…to deliver top quartile total shareholder returns (TSR)

==> picture [720 x 10] intentionally omitted <==

==> picture [700 x 438] intentionally omitted <==

----- Start of picture text -----

12 Refresh Vision & Strategy
11 Capital Management
10 10 Growth
9 9 Value Chain Optimisation
Tabula Rasa
8
7 Ampol Singapore
Invest in Distribution Infrastructure
6
5 Kurnell conversion
4 Supply Chain review
Business Model
Integrated Supply
Chain
2 Caltex Values 3
Establish Vision
Transport Fuels Leader
Measure of Success
TSR
1
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Beyond
8
----- End of picture text -----

Strategy Update

==> picture [720 x 10] intentionally omitted <==

==> picture [693 x 404] intentionally omitted <==

9

Key Highlights

Priorities

==> picture [720 x 10] intentionally omitted <==

Key Highlights
Priorities
Short Term Continue to defend and grow core transport fuels business including
(Next 12 months) growth in premium fuels
Prioritise the optimisation of the entire value chain from product
sourcing to customer via:
- Continue to build Ampol product sourcing & shipping capabilities
- Continue to invest in supply chain infrastructure, including retail
network
- On-going focus on capturing further operational and margin
improvements at Lytton
Continue to implement and embed company wide cost and efficiency
program (“Tabula Rasa”)
Pursue growth within core Transport Fuels business and low-risk
adjacent business opportunities
Focus on efficient capital allocation via $270 million off-market buy-
back
Medium to Longer Term Maintain our position as outright leader in transport fuels
(Beyond 12 months) On-going optimisation of the entire value chain
Pursue growth opportunities based on our core capabilities –
management of complex supply chains, infrastructure services and
leveraging our convenience and mobility base
Maintain cost and capital discipline

10

AGENDA

Safety Full Year 2015: Key Highlights Strategy Update Financial Highlights Supply & Marketing Highlights Lytton Refinery Highlights Financial Discipline Result Summary & Outlook Q&A Appendices

==> picture [284 x 57] intentionally omitted <==

11

Financial Highlights

Full Year Ending 31 December

==> picture [720 x 10] intentionally omitted <==

FY2015 FY2014 % Change
HISTORIC COST
EBIT ($m) 815 139 487
NPAT ($m) 522 20 >100
EPS(cps) 193 7 >100
REPLACEMENT COST
EBIT ($m) 977 795 23
NPAT ($m) 628 493 27
EPS (cps) 233 183 27
Dividend(cps) 117 70 67
Debt ($m) 432 639 (32)
Gearing (%) 13 20 (33)
Gearing (Lease adjusted %) 28 34 (19)
Working Capital ($M) 524 542 (3)
Capital Expenditure ($M) 454 503 (10)
Depreciation & Amortisation($M) 193 203 (5)

==> picture [284 x 57] intentionally omitted <==

12

Financial Highlights

Reconciliation to underlying (RCOP) profit metric

==> picture [720 x 10] intentionally omitted <==

FY 2015 $m FY 2014 $m
(After Tax) (After Tax)
HCOP NPAT 522 20
Add: Inventory loss/(gain) 135 361
Add: Significant items (gain) (29) 112
RCOP NPAT 628 493

==> picture [284 x 57] intentionally omitted <==

13

Financial Highlights Significant Items

==> picture [720 x 10] intentionally omitted <==

==> picture [651 x 312] intentionally omitted <==

----- Start of picture text -----

Year Ending December FY 2015 FY 2014
$ M $ M
Cash Benefits / (Costs)
Sale of surplus land 32
Redundancies (53)
Asset Rationalisation (31)
Early repayment of USPP tranche
(16)
Contract cancellation (12)
Other costs and fees (25)
Non-Cash Benefits/ (Costs)
Asset Write-downs (23)
Total Significant Items (Before Tax) 32 (160)
Tax (3) 48
Total Significant Items (After Tax) 29 (112)
----- End of picture text -----*

* Tabula Rasa related initiatives

** Includes Interest expense of $20m, less $4m benefit from closing out related cross currency swaps

==> picture [284 x 57] intentionally omitted <==

14

Financial Highlights

Historic Cost Profit impacted by fall in crude and product prices

==> picture [720 x 10] intentionally omitted <==

==> picture [686 x 364] intentionally omitted <==

----- Start of picture text -----

Incl. $10m increased investment in
$ million FY 2014 v FY 2015 HCOP EBIT
IT, growth, business development
1200
188 21 32 194
977
1000
140 795 14 815
800
516
600 After After
$19m $23m T&I
non-cash related
400
asset supply
write-offs costs
200 139
0
----- End of picture text -----

==> picture [284 x 57] intentionally omitted <==

15

Financial Highlights

Integrated Supply and Marketing result resilient in challenging B2B market; Strong operational erformance allows L tton to ca ture stron refiner mar ins p y p g g

==> picture [720 x 10] intentionally omitted <==

  • Lytton profitability up $188 million to $406 million. Strong operational performance allows Lytton to take advantage of strong refiner margins

==> picture [398 x 300] intentionally omitted <==

----- Start of picture text -----

$m Caltex RCOP NPAT
650
550
450 377
350
261 320
250 161

151
150
251
197
171 173
50 113

(50) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
RCOP NPAT 1H RCOP NPAT 2H •
----- End of picture text -----*

  • Major Turnaround & Inspection program completed during May and June

  • Lytton result now includes shipping & demurrage supply costs ($23 million) incurred to support Lytton T&I program ($20m of which was previously in Supply & Marketing 1H 2015)

Integrated Supply & Marketing EBIT (including Ampol Singapore) of $672 million demonstrates resilience in competitive B2B and Retail markets

  • Includes $19m of non-cash asset write-offs

  • Higher Corporate costs (+$21m) due to technology, growth investments and increased bonuses

  • Lower interest costs (-$14m) reflect lower average borrowings (offset by lower capitalised interest)

*RCOP Net profit after tax, excluding significant items

==> picture [284 x 57] intentionally omitted <==

16

Financial Highlights RCOP EBIT by Segment[#]

==> picture [720 x 10] intentionally omitted <==

RCOP EBIT*

==> picture [627 x 331] intentionally omitted <==

----- Start of picture text -----

$m RCOP EBIT
1,100 Active hedging program introduced 1 July 2010. Policy reviewed
and increased to 80% of net USD payables from 1 August 2014. 977
1,000
900 The net FX loss of $26m in FY15 (FY2014: net FX loss $26m) was
net of hedging gains of $23m (FY 2014: hedging gains of $35m). 795
800
700 658 672
600 551
502
500
406
400
300
218
200
92
100
0
(100) (42)
(81)
(102)
(200)
Supply and Marketing Lytton Corporate Total
2013 2014 2015
----- End of picture text -----*

*** RCOP EBIT excluding significant items**

==> picture [284 x 57] intentionally omitted <==

17

==> picture [720 x 10] intentionally omitted <==

AGENDA Safety Full Year 2015: Key Highlights Strategy Update Financial Highlights Supply & Marketing Highlights Lytton Refinery Highlights Financial Discipline Result Summary & Outlook Q&A Appendices

==> picture [284 x 57] intentionally omitted <==

18

Supply & Marketing Highlights

Reporting framework change reflecting integrated supply chain business model

==> picture [720 x 10] intentionally omitted <==

Kurnell Refinery Integrated Supply Chain FY14 FY15 Lytton Refinery Corporate
2014 2015 Marketing & Distribution 812 2014 2015 FY14 FY15
Supply Costs (99)
Refining (69) -
FX impact / Price timing lag
Kurnell closure & conversion
76
(61)
218 406 (81) (102)
728 672
Less: Externalities (76) 3
Kurnell closure & conversion 61 0
Supply & Marketing adjusted for
externalities, Kurnell closure* 713 675
FY 2015 result impacted by the following:
Loss of specialties margin and other benefits
following Kurnell refinery closure ($30m)
Kurnell Terminal Costs ($65m)
Asset write-offs (non-cash) ($19m)
Closed refining Reported Reported
operations Separately Separately
19
* Allow for rounding

Supply & Marketing Highlights - Key Drivers

Premium product focus, improved supply chain, good cost control drive earnings growth

==> picture [720 x 10] intentionally omitted <==

==> picture [706 x 395] intentionally omitted <==

----- Start of picture text -----

2015 v 2014 RCOP EBIT Good cost control (Tabula Rasa focus), incl.
removal of one product ship (~$18m)
750
Import terminal ($65m costs,
Includes (non-cash)
including $26m depreciation)
replaces capital intensive, 69 713 65 28 14 asset write-offs of
700 loss-making refinery 23 $19m relating to: -
68 1 IT / systems
675 26 23 672 ($9m); and
-
Pumps, tanks and
658 102
other hardware
30
650 61 644 assets ($10m)
Higher depreciation
($14m) reflects growth
capital investment
600
26 (excluding Kurnell
depreciation) Change in externalities
(net $79m)
$30m loss of specialties and - FY2014
550
other benefits following Favourable
Kurnell refinery closure ($76m);
- FY2015
Unfavourable
500 ($3m)
----- End of picture text -----

20

Supply & Marketing Highlights

Gross Contribution

==> picture [720 x 10] intentionally omitted <==

==> picture [428 x 351] intentionally omitted <==

----- Start of picture text -----

Supply and Marketing Gross Contribution
$m
1400
1200
184
185
65
1000 175
184 95
136
800 127
600
999
908
400 747 775
200
0
2012 2013 2014 2015
Transport Fuels Lubricants and Specialties Non Fuel Income
----- End of picture text -----

  • Integrated returns ensure resilient earnings growth

  • Improved margins due to product mix, channel sales and improved supply chain efficiency (Tabula Rasa, Ampol Singapore), despite margin pressures across B2B channel

  • Non-fuel income provides stable annuity stream

  • Loss of specialties follows Kurnell refinery closure – Lubricants & Specialties base line re-established. Lubricants business stabilised

==> picture [284 x 57] intentionally omitted <==

21

Supply & Marketing Highlights

Diesel, Jet Fuel Sales - Volumes down, despite strong Vortex retail sales growth

==> picture [720 x 10] intentionally omitted <==

  • Total diesel volumes fell 5.4% to 7.2BL, off record 2014 base, but new contract volumes won for 2016

Caltex Diesel, Jet Sales

==> picture [374 x 329] intentionally omitted <==

----- Start of picture text -----

BL
10.0
9.0 2.63
2.56 2.50
8.0 2.46
2.34
7.0
1.65 2.46
6.0 0.95 1.32 2.17
5.74
5.0 5.45 5.52
5.13
4.0 5.01
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Diesel Vortex / Differentiated Diesels Jet Fuel
----- End of picture text -----

==> picture [284 x 57] intentionally omitted <==

  • Commercial (B2B) diesel sales volumes impacted by:

(1) Lower diesel demand as a number of LNG projects near completion (~150 ML);

  • (2) Lower spot volume marine diesel sales (WA) (~50 ML); and

(3) Loss of major mining customer contract in 1H – replaced but temporary reduction in annual volumes (~270 ML)

  • Successfully defended contracted volumes in 2015 and secured new supply volumes for 2016

  • Vortex / differentiated diesel volumes driven by:

  • Strong retail diesel volume growth continues, Vortex (retail) diesel up 14% (+280 ML).

  • Major trial of commercial diesel contract discontinued (volume impact -575 ML).

  • Premium diesel now represents 31% of total diesel sales. Continue to target premium substitution across both commercial and retail segments

  • Jet volumes fell 5.0% driven by reduced domestic airline capacity and single major customer spreading its supply risk. New contract volumes won for 2016

22

Supply & Marketing Highlights

Petrol Sales - Premium petrols volumes up; Total Market and volumes down

==> picture [720 x 10] intentionally omitted <==

==> picture [382 x 334] intentionally omitted <==

----- Start of picture text -----

BL Caltex Petrol Sales
7.0
1.11
6.0 0.98
0.89 0.75
0.62
5.0 1.54 1.69 1.75 1.81
1.88
4.0
4.03
3.78
3.0 3.66
3.66 3.51
2.0
1.0
0.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Petrol Premium E10
----- End of picture text -----

  • Premium petrol sales up 4.0%, including Vortex 98 volumes up 9.5%.

  • Premium now represents 31% of total Consumer petrol sales

  • Higher sales of premium grades partially offset the long term decline in demand for unleaded petrol, including E10.

Total petrol volumes fell 3.6% to 6.0 billion litres, driven by continuing trend of falling ULP / E10 base petrol sales volumes down 6.6% (including E10 sales down 18.3%) reflecting:

  • Diesel and premium petrol substitution, and

  • General long term industry-wide decline

==> picture [284 x 57] intentionally omitted <==

23

Supply & Marketing Highlights

Non Fuel Income (NFI) - Network development enables transport fuels and convenience growth

==> picture [720 x 10] intentionally omitted <==

(100)
(50)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
$m
Caltex Non Fuel Income Caltex Non Fuel Income
250
261
259
281
291
(69)
(77)
(84)
(96)
(107)
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Income
Expense
  • Non fuel income contribution (net) broadly flat at $184 million

  • Non fuel income is an enabler for Transport Fuels volume growth, improved product mix and therefore margin

  • Record network investment with 41 New to Industry (NTI), New to Caltex (NTC) / Knock Down Rebuild Sites (KDR)

  • Revenue up on card contribution, dry goods supply chain benefits and convenience store shop sales (year on year +3.6%)

  • Higher Non-Fuel expenses reflect additional sites and higher avg. rent and lease expenses (~3%).

==> picture [284 x 57] intentionally omitted <==

24

Supply & Marketing Highlights

Retail capabilities and other developments, supports strategy

==> picture [720 x 10] intentionally omitted <==

Infrastructure

  • Retail network development accelerates

  • New to Industry / New to Caltex retail outlets (23 completed)

  • Retail site Knock Down rebuilds (11) and major upgrades (7) (including 21CC Retail fit-out) (18)

  • Targeting faster, more capital efficient roll-outs - Reduced construction process time by 6 months (from concept); and cost to build reduced by 20%

  • Improved Network planning site identification model implemented

  • Brisbane products pipeline (3.5km pipeline) completed April 2015, ahead of schedule, within budget

  • Brisbane jet fuel pipeline construction completion (end FY2015) – on time, on budget

  • Kurnell decommission program progressing safely - on time, on budget. Total Kurnell transformation project remains on time, on budget

==> picture [284 x 57] intentionally omitted <==

25

Supply & Marketing Highlights

Retail Capabilities and Other Developments, supports strategy

==> picture [720 x 10] intentionally omitted <==

Retail

  • Major Retailer of the Year Award, Australian Association of Convenience Stores (AACS) (2014 - 2015)

  • Convenience store sales grow to $1.2 billion per annum (approx. 3 million customers each week)

  • Pilot store trialling new food offer and store design

  • Focused on fresh, healthy offers (Includes barista, fresh sandwiches, salads, bakery on site)

  • Building digital and data analytics capability: Focus on enhanced efficiency and growth opportunities

  • Enhance distribution capabilities via rolling out centralised logistics program (470 sites and growing)

Loyalty and Sponsorship

  • Launch of TeamVortex Vortex (V8) racing led by driving legend and Caltex ambassador Craig Lowndes

  • Renewed Myer One Loyalty program; Support Make-A-Wish Foundation

  • Core business supported by around 1.6 million active StarCards (~20% of retail fuel volumes); 48 million transactions p.a.

  • Actively broadening further our sponsorship and loyalty offers

Mobility

  • Investment in peer-to-peer car sharing business (Car Next Door, $2.5m, 20% equity stake)

  • Low risk investment in potential adjacent business opportunity

==> picture [284 x 57] intentionally omitted <==

26

==> picture [720 x 10] intentionally omitted <==

AGENDA

Safety Full Year 2015: Key Highlights Strategy Update Financial Highlights Supply & Marketing Highlights Lytton Refinery Highlights Financial Discipline Result Summary & Outlook Q&A Appendices

==> picture [284 x 57] intentionally omitted <==

27

Lytton Refinery Highlights

Strong operational performance enables Lytton to take advantage of strong refiner margins, despite lower production due to major T&I

==> picture [659 x 375] intentionally omitted <==

----- Start of picture text -----

2014 vs 2015 RCOP EBIT
600
External Drivers Controllable Drivers
500 163 37
23
4 2 13
8
406
400
98
300
10 3
218 One-off T&I related
Higher charges
200 supply costs
post 2015 T&I and
ISOM investment
Sales from production
100 impacted by the 7 week Maintaining good cost
T&I program (occurs control in current
every five years) environment
-
----- End of picture text -----

==> picture [284 x 57] intentionally omitted <==

28

Lytton Refinery Highlights

Caltex Refiner Margin (CRM) driven by lower yield loss, lower crude premium and higher market margins

==> picture [720 x 10] intentionally omitted <==

==> picture [361 x 274] intentionally omitted <==

----- Start of picture text -----

14.03
8.70
0.22
7.22
1.39
0.04 6.01
4.87
16.46
0.34
11.83 12.42
9.34
7.98
-0.45
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Realised CRM (USD/bbl) Lag (USD/bbl) CRM (Acpl)
----- End of picture text -----

Caltex Refiner Margin
Build-up (US$bbl)
Caltex Refiner Margin
Build-up (US$bbl)
FY15
FY14
Singapore WAM
Product freight
Quality premium
Crude freight
Crude premium
Yield loss
*
Lag
Realised CRM
14.95
13.12
4.51
4.95
1.12
1.43
(2.41)
(2.56)
(1.02)
(2.69)
(0.89)
(3.22)
0.20
1.39
16.46
12.42

** Significant reduction in yield loss (US$2.33/bbl) reflects 2014 adverse impact of sub-optimal Kurnell refinery prior to closure. 2015 reflects Lytton performance only. Yield loss 1.2%

*The Caltex Refiner Margin (CRM) represents the difference between the cost of importing a standard Caltex basket of products to Eastern Australia and the cost of importing the crude oil required to make that product basket. The CRM calculation represents: average Singapore refiner margin + product quality premium + crude discount/(premium) + product freight - crude freight - yield loss. Numbers used are volume weighted.

29

25

Lytton Refinery Highlights

Caltex Refiner Margin (CRM) driven by lower yield loss, higher market prices and lower crude premium costs

==> picture [720 x 10] intentionally omitted <==

2007-2015 Caltex Refiner Margin*[1] (US$/bbl)

==> picture [436 x 276] intentionally omitted <==

----- Start of picture text -----

5
0
Dec-06 Apr-07 Aug-07 Dec-07 Apr-08 Aug-08 Dec-08 Apr-09 Aug-09 Dec-09 Apr-10 Aug-10 Dec-10 Apr-11 Aug-11 Dec-11 Apr-12 Aug-12 Dec-12 Apr-13 Aug-13 Dec-13 Apr-14 Aug-14 Dec-14 Apr-15 Aug-15 Dec-15
----- End of picture text -----

==> picture [14 x 101] intentionally omitted <==

----- Start of picture text -----

20
15
10
----- End of picture text -----

==> picture [12 x 9] intentionally omitted <==

----- Start of picture text -----

-5
----- End of picture text -----

*Lagged Caltex Refiner Margin. Tapis Brent

  1. Price basis shifted from (APPI) Tapis to Platts Dated Brent in January 2011 (consistent with Caltex references)

  2. Higher CRM driven by lower yield loss, crude premium and net freight costs

  3. Comparable Singapore Weighted Average Margin (SWAM) (US$14.95/bbl versus US$13.12/bbl) year on year, despite volatility

Average
realised CRM
Average
realised CRM
2015 2014
1H US$16.00 US$9.20
2H US$16.85 US$16.38
CRM
unlagged
High Low Average*
1 year US$19.85 US$12.64 US$16.32
2 year US$19.85 US$7.03 US$13.82
  • daily average over the period

==> picture [284 x 57] intentionally omitted <==

30

Lytton Refinery Highlights

Operational performance metrics adversely impacted due to Turnaround & Inspection (T&I)

==> picture [720 x 10] intentionally omitted <==

Refinery Production, Utilisation (%) and Availability (%)

==> picture [674 x 363] intentionally omitted <==

----- Start of picture text -----

BL %

3.50 100 Turnaround & Inspection
96 97 97 97 97 (T&I) impacted Lytton
operational performance:
3.00 93
3.1
3.0
2.8 1. Mechanical Availability
2.50 2.7 90 (97.1%);
90
2.5
88 88
2.2 2. Yield (98.4%) after a 2H
2.00 avg. of 99.2%;
80
1.50 80 3. Utilisation (77%)
76 (including 1H 65% and
2H post T&I of 88%); and
1.00
70
4. Transport fuels production
0.50 (Sales from production
5.465 BL, -7.3%)
65
- 60
1H13 2H13 1H14 2H14 1H15 2H15
Production volumes (LHS) Utlisation (RHS) Mechanical Availability (RHS)
----- End of picture text -----

==> picture [284 x 57] intentionally omitted <==

31

Lytton Refinery Highlights

High quality product slate, balanced between petrol and middle distillates

==> picture [720 x 10] intentionally omitted <==

LYTTON

2015
2014
2013
2015
2014
2013
2015
2014
2013
2012 2011 2010
Diesel 39% 38% 39% 40% 38% 39%
Premium Petrols 12% 13% 12% 13% 12% 10%
Jet 12% 12% 10% 10% 9% 7%
63% 63% 61% 63% 59% 56%
Unleaded Petrol 32% 33% 35% 34% 37% 41%
Other 5% 4% 4% 4% 4% 3%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

“Other” product slate includes high value product (nonene)

==> picture [284 x 57] intentionally omitted <==

32

~~AGENDA~~

Safety Full Year 2015: Key Highlights Strategy Update Financial Highlights Supply & Marketing Highlights Lytton Refinery Highlights Financial Discipline Result Summary & Outlook Q&A Appendices

==> picture [284 x 57] intentionally omitted <==

33

Financial Discipline - Balance Sheet

Average daily borrowings lower on higher earnings, disciplined capex spend and lower working capital levels

==> picture [644 x 338] intentionally omitted <==

----- Start of picture text -----

%
Caltex net debt levels
$m Period end debt and gearing* $m
800 40 2500
700 740 742 35
2000
600 639 30
617
500 544 25
1500
400 432 20
1000
300 15
200 10
500
100 5
0 0 0
Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15
Net Debt Gearing Gearing, Lease adj Ave Debt Peak Debt Debt Facilities^
----- End of picture text -----**

Gearing Gearing, Lease adj

  • Gearing = net debt / (net debt + equity); Gearing – Lease adjusted, adjusts net debt to include lease liabilities

  • ** Average debt is the average level of debt through the period; Peak debt is the maximum daily debt through the period ^ Debt facilities includes committed facilities as at 31 December 2015

34

Financial Discipline - Capital Management Returns Focused Capital Management

==> picture [720 x 10] intentionally omitted <==

Capital management objective

  • Given the company’s improved cash flows and strong balance sheet, Caltex has reviewed the options for capital management based on established priorities to ensure capital is deployed as efficiently as possible.

  • The company’s overarching objective is to deliver top quartile Total Shareholder Returns (TSR) over time.

Committed to maintaining prudent debt levels

  • Maintain a capital structure consistent with a stable investment grade credit rating.

  • Substantial headroom remains to invest in growth and respond to changes in the operating environment.

Disciplined use of free cash flow to generate sustainable long term earnings growth

  • The company’s priority is to invest in the business and in growth initiatives to generate sustainable, long term earnings growth.

  • Deliver a more attractive ordinary dividend stream to shareholders (40-60% dividend payout ratio of RCOP NPAT).

  • Capital management opportunities in the absence of sustainable growth investments may be considered.

  • The preferred form of additional capital return is an off-market buy-back.

==> picture [284 x 57] intentionally omitted <==

35

Financial Discipline

Capital Management – Initiatives to Date

==> picture [720 x 10] intentionally omitted <==

1.

Refreshed FX Hedging strategy completed

  • Hedging of net USD exposure increased to 80% (from 50%), effective 1 August 2014 - Use of vanilla foreign exchange option introduces the ability to participate in AUD strength

2.

Early repayment of final US Private Placement

  • Approximately $15m in interest savings (16mth period: Jan. 2015 to April 2016)

3.

Available debt facilities reduced

  • $1.55 billion from $2.1 billion

  • Reduced fee facilities (estimate ~$5 million p.a.)

4.

Sustainable dividend pay-out ratio

  • Now 40% - 60% of RCOP NPAT (from 20% to 40% during Kurnell conversion)

$270 million off-market share buy-back announced

==> picture [284 x 57] intentionally omitted <==

5.

36

Financial Discipline - Capital Expenditure

Capital directed to reinvest and grow, whilst ensuring a safe, efficient business

==> picture [720 x 10] intentionally omitted <==

==> picture [358 x 300] intentionally omitted <==

----- Start of picture text -----

$m Caltex Capital Expenditure
600
568
500
503
454
400
420
403
300
200
100
0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
----- End of picture text -----

FY 2015 total capex spend of $454m (previous guidance $430m - $485m)

Includes:

  • Stay-in-business of $241 million (versus $215m - $240m guidance) (includes Lytton T&I of $68m);

  • Growth (excluding M&A) of $168 m (guidance $165 m - $195 m); and

  • Kurnell terminal transition $46m (guidance around $50 million)

==> picture [284 x 57] intentionally omitted <==

37

Financial Discipline - Capital Expenditure Indicative Capital Expenditure, subject to change (includes T&I**)

==> picture [720 x 10] intentionally omitted <==

$ millions 2013 2014 2015 2016 Forecast*
Lytton
- Stay in business (includes T&I)
- Growth
Supply and Marketing
- Stay in business
- Growth
Kurnell Refinery
Kurnell Terminal Transition
Corporate – Other
Total
93
13
106
116
173
289
39
127
7
568
58
56
114
104
186
289
29
67
4
503
94
39
133
143
129
271
0
46
4
454
30 - 45
5 - 10
35 - 55
140 - 160
180 - 190
320 - 350
0
5 - 10
10 - 25
370 - 440
  • Indicative ranges only. Subject to change pending market conditions, opportunities, etc.

  • ** Turnaround & Inspection (T&I) – major program typically undertaken every five years

38

Financial Discipline - Dividend

Final dividend of 70 cents per share (2014: 50cps); full year dividend 117 cps, up 67%

==> picture [720 x 10] intentionally omitted <==

Caltex dividend history^

Cents per share

Payout Ratio^^

==> picture [572 x 282] intentionally omitted <==

----- Start of picture text -----

140 60%
117
120
50%
70
100 60
45 40%
70
80
34
30%
40
60
30 50 20%
40 25
28
17
20 23 47 10%
30
25
17 17 17 20
0 0%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Interim Dividend Final Dividend Payout %
----- End of picture text -----

Payout %

  • ^ Dividends declared relating to the operating financial year period; all dividends fully franked

  • ^ ^ Dividend pay-out ratio (40% to 60%)

39

Financial Discipline

$270 million Off-Market Bu -Back y

==> picture [720 x 10] intentionally omitted <==

  • Significant change in share register composition following Chevron’s exit. Domestic shareholders now represent a majority (previous minority)

  • All capital return options considered (e.g. special dividend, on-market, off-market buy-backs)

  • Off-market buy-back most appropriate structure, given surplus franking credits, ability to buy back shares at a discount to market (up to 14%) and better TSR outcome

  • Expect BBB+ credit rating maintained

  • Subject to identification and execution of profitable growth opportunities (Caltex’s priority), additional capital returns may be considered

  • Balance sheet flexibility and capability to fund growth (priority) maintained

  • Gearing levels

  • Current: 13% net debt to capital; 28% net debt to capital (lease adjusted)

  • • Include buy-back: 20% net debt to capital; 33% net debt to capital (lease adjusted)

  • Including dividends, total capital returns in respect of 2015 year $586 million ($2.17/share)

==> picture [284 x 57] intentionally omitted <==

40

Financial Discipline

Details of the Buy-Back and Benefits to Shareholders

==> picture [720 x 10] intentionally omitted <==

  • Size: ~$270 million; Price: Discount of 10% to 14% to the Market Price*

  • Composition:

  • Capital component of $2.01/share;

  • Fully franked dividend makes up rest of share purchase price

  • Good utilisation of current surplus franking credit balance (est. $1,102 million or ~$4.08/share at 31 December 2015), efficiently distributed to those investors who value them

  • Share repurchase is EPS and ROE accretive (benefiting all shareholders)

  • Separate booklet contains buy-back details, including tender process, available March

    • Market Price calculated as volume weighted average price (VWAP) (as defined in the

    • Buy-Back booklet) of Caltex shares over the five trading days up to and including the Buy-Back closing date of Friday, 8 April 2016

==> picture [284 x 57] intentionally omitted <==

41

Financial Discipline

Illustrative Buy-Back Example (for Australian Super Fund Investors)

==> picture [720 x 10] intentionally omitted <==

Key Assumptions Comments
Assumed Market Price
Assumed Buy-Back Price
Capital component
Original share purchase price (cost base)
36.00
$ 30.96
$ 2.01
$ 22.80
$
Assumed Market Price less maximum tender discount of 14.0%
As per ATO Draft class ruling
Assume shares held for more than 12 mths
Income Tax Consequences
Fully franked dividend component 28.95
$
Assumed Buy-Back Price less capital component
Add: Gross up for franking credits 12.41
$
Assessable income 41.36
$
Fully franked component plus gross up for franking credits
Tax on assessable income $ (6.20) Superfund tax rate (15%) times assessable income ($41.36)
Add: Tax offset for franking credits
Net tax benefit
12.41
$ 6.21
$
Per above
Franking credit balance less tax on assessable income
After-tax dividend (Income) proceeds 35.16
$
Fully franked dividend component plus net tax benefit
Capital Gains Tax Consequences

Sale consideration
7.05
$
Assumed Tax Market Value* ($36.00) less fully franked dividend component ($28.95)
Less: Assumed cost base
Nominal loss on disposal
$ (22.80)
$ (15.75)
Assumption per above
Sale consideration less assumed cost base
Tax on loss of disposal 5.25
$
Capital gains tax for super funds (33.33%) x loss on disposal
Discounted capital loss on disposal $ (10.50)
Tax impact of loss
Add capital component
After-tax capital proceeds
1.58
$ 2.01
$ 3.59
$
15% tax on discounted loss on disposal
Capital component ($2.01) plus adjusted tax loss ($1.58)
Total after-tax proceeds 38.74
$
  • Tax Market Value will be the VWAP of Caltex shares on the ASX over the last five trading days before the Buy-Back announcement, adjusted for movement in the S&P / ASX 200 index up until the buy-back closing date.

42

Financial Discipline

Proposed Off-Market Buy-Back Timetable

==> picture [720 x 10] intentionally omitted <==

February 2016

Announcement of Caltex’s results and of Buy-Back Tuesday, 23 February Last day that Shares can be acquired to be eligible for Buy-Back franking entitlements Thursday, 25 February Buy-Back ex-entitlement date: the date that Shares commence trading on an ex-Buy-Back basis. Friday, 26 February Shares acquired on the ASX on or after this date will not confer an entitlement to participate in the Buy-Back

March 2016

Buy-Back Record Date: determination of eligible shareholders entitled to participate in the Buy- Tuesday, 1 March
Back
Mailing of Buy-Back documents to shareholders completed by Monday, 7 March
Tender period opening date Monday, 14 March

April 2016

April 2016
Tender period closing date: Tenders must be received by the registry no later than 7.00pm Friday, 8 April
(Sydney time)
Buy-Back Date: determination of the buy-back price and scale back (if any) and entry into Buy- Monday, 11 April
Back contracts
Dispatch/crediting of Buy-Back proceeds to participating shareholders. Updated holding Friday, 15 April
statements sent to participating shareholders by

==> picture [284 x 57] intentionally omitted <==

43

==> picture [720 x 10] intentionally omitted <==

Safety Full Year 2015: Key Highlights Strategy Update Financial Highlights Supply & Marketing Highlights Lytton Refinery Highlights Financial Discipline Result Summary & Outlook Q&A Appendices

==> picture [284 x 57] intentionally omitted <==

44

RESULT SUMMARY & OUTLOOK

==> picture [720 x 10] intentionally omitted <==

  • RESULT TAKE-AWAYS • RCOP NPAT result of $628 million, 27% above prior year • Significant item of $29 million (after tax) from sale of surplus property • • Ampol Singapore underpins a more efficient import supply chain • $188 million to $406 million

  • • Balance sheet strong, strategy delivering on improved cash flows • • Off-market buy-back announced ($270 million; $1.00/share) •

  • SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK • Continue to defend Business to Business market position

  • Significant item of $29 million (after tax) from sale of surplus property

  • Supply & Marketing delivers positive EBIT growth (excl. $3m unfavourable externalities)

  • Ampol Singapore underpins a more efficient import supply chain

  • Strong operating performance enables Lytton to take advantage of strong refiner margins, despite lower production following major Turnaround & Inspection – EBIT up $188 million to $406 million

  • Balance sheet strong, strategy delivering on improved cash flows

  • Final fully franked dividend 70 cps declared (2014: 50cps) (2H payout 50.1%)

  • • Off-market buy-back announced ($270 million; $1.00/share)

  • Total capital returns to shareholders (2015) total $586 million (Dividend + Buy-Back)

  • • Continue to defend Business to Business market position

  • Optimise entire value chain from product sourcing to customer, including product sourcing via Ampol Singapore

  • Continue to drive productivity improvements via Caltex’s Tabula Rasa program

  • Continue to invest in supply chain, including retail network and infrastructure

  • Further develop and pursue growth strategy within core Transport Fuels business and low-risk adjacent business opportunities

  • • Focus on efficient allocation of capital, including the successful execution of the $270 million off market buy-back. In the absence of material growth opportunities, further additional capital returns may be considered.

  • SUMMARY • Caltex is one integrated transport fuels company that is underpinned by comprehensive infrastructure with a diverse set of customers spanning consumer, commercial and wholesale

  • We have a clear strategy to grow earnings, reduce volatility of earnings and cash flow and increase balance sheet flexibility to maximise longer term shareholder returns

==> picture [284 x 57] intentionally omitted <==

45

==> picture [720 x 10] intentionally omitted <==

Q&A

==> picture [284 x 57] intentionally omitted <==

46

AGENDA

Safety Full Year 2015: Key Highlights Strategy Update Financial Highlights Marketing Highlights Supply Chain Highlights Financial Discipline Result Summary & Outlook Appendices

==> picture [284 x 57] intentionally omitted <==

47

Appendix: Regional Supply Capacity

Utilisation rates forecast to remain relatively high, following net 2015 capacity reductions

==> picture [720 x 10] intentionally omitted <==

Asia Pacific Refining Capacity Additions and Utilisation

==> picture [386 x 269] intentionally omitted <==

----- Start of picture text -----

Net Additions Crude Unit Utilisation
kbd %
3,000 90
2,700
2,400 85
2,100
1,800 80
1,500
1,200 75
900
600 70
300
0 65
-300
-600 60
----- End of picture text -----

==> picture [176 x 10] intentionally omitted <==

----- Start of picture text -----

Capacity Additions Utilisation
----- End of picture text -----

  • Following the net reduction in regional refining capacity in 2015, net additions over 2016-19 are projected to be low compared with the previous decade (reflecting delays and deferrals of new projects and impact of anticipated refinery closures, mainly in Japan).

  • Refinery utilisation increased significantly in 2015 and the projected slower growth in refinery capacity over the next four years should support refinery utilisation at this higher rate.

  • Total demand growth is forecast to exceed regional refining capacity additions to 2019. Larger capacity additions are forecast in 2018 (China, India). Project delays could push back the timing of forecast capacity growth.

Source: FACTS Global Energy October 2014 Forecast, Caltex estimates Capacity additions are net of forecast closures

48

Appendix: Australian Fuels Demand Growth

Continued demand growth forecast for diesel and jet fuel (though at declining rates)

==> picture [720 x 10] intentionally omitted <==

==> picture [378 x 285] intentionally omitted <==

----- Start of picture text -----

Australian Transport Fuels Market Growth
6%
4.3%
4% 3.0% 3.3%
2.7%
2.5%
2.0%
2%
0%
-2%
-1.8%
-2.5%
-4%
-4.1%
-6% -5.0%
ULP/E10 Premium Total petrol Diesel Jet
petrol
2011-15 2015-20
outlook
----- End of picture text -----

  • Regular unleaded petrol volumes are projected to continue to decline steadily, reflecting improvements in the vehicle fleet’s fuel efficiency, substitution to premium grades (new vehicle requirements) and diesel cars.

  • Lower growth in diesel market volumes is forecast, in line with the weaker outlook for the resources sector and more gradual diesel vehicle substitution.

  • Steady jet fuel market growth continues, driven by increasing passenger travel, partially offset by improvements in aircraft fuel efficiency.

Source: ABARE, DRET & CTX Analysis

49

Appendix: Regional Supply and Demand

==> picture [720 x 10] intentionally omitted <==

==> picture [398 x 285] intentionally omitted <==

----- Start of picture text -----

kb/d Asia Pacific Product Demand Growth vs CDU Capacity Additions
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
-500
----- End of picture text -----

Demand Capacity Additions

Source: FACTS Global Energy November 2015 Forecast, Caltex estimates Capacity additions are net of forecast closures

==> picture [284 x 57] intentionally omitted <==

  • Product demand growth in the Asian region is forecast to remain robust (CY 2016-19), supported by low oil prices and emerging market growth. Strong growth in petrol and jet fuel demand, reflecting higher consumer incomes, is forecast to offset weaker diesel growth due to slower Chinese economic growth.

  • Total product demand is forecast to average 1.8% p.a. growth (20152019), slightly lower than the 2.2% p.a. recorded over 2011-15.

  • Regional demand growth out to 2019 is projected to exceed net refining capacity additions. The projected tighter regional demandsupply balance should support refining margins, although tempered by increasing Middle East exportable surpluses.

50

Appendix: Middle East product balances

Middle East region is forecast to have growing surpluses of transport fuels

==> picture [720 x 10] intentionally omitted <==

==> picture [367 x 297] intentionally omitted <==

----- Start of picture text -----

kb/d Middle East Product Net Exports
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Gasoline Diesel Jet
-100
-200
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
----- End of picture text -----

• The Middle East region is adding refining capacity over the next three (3) years that is designed to maximise petrol and middle distillate (i.e. diesel, jet) production. This will increase the projected exportable surplus of transport fuels from the region.

  • The Middle East’s product exports will impact global product trade flows, increase product availability and therefore offset the tightening product balances across the Asia Pacific region.

Source: FACTS Global Energy November 2015 Forecast A positive balance indicates net exports

==> picture [284 x 57] intentionally omitted <==

51

Appendix: Depreciation & Amortisation

De reciation & Amortisation* p

==> picture [720 x 10] intentionally omitted <==

$ millions 2013 2014** 2015
2016 Forecast*
Lytton
Supply and Marketing
Corporate
Kurnell Refinery
Total
24
91
8
123
42
166
34
99
33
166
37
203
48
50 - 60
139
150 - 160
6
5 - 10
193
205 - 230
0
0
193
205 - 230

* Indicative forecasts only. Subject to any major capex / M&A changes

** 2014 Corporate D&A included $23m in significant items. Underlying 2014 corporate D&A approximates $10m

==> picture [284 x 57] intentionally omitted <==

52

Appendix: Reporting Framework Change Reconciling 2014 to 2015 segment reporting

==> picture [720 x 10] intentionally omitted <==

2014 Segmentation Basis FY 2014
2015 Segmentation Basis
FY 2014
Marketing
812
Lytton
218
Supply Chain
64
Supply and Marketing

658
Corporate
(81)
Corporate
(81)
RCOP EBIT
795
RCOP EBIT
795
Supply Chain consisted of:
Lytton
218
Kurnell
(69)
Supply

(23)
Kurnell Closure costs
(61)
Total Supply Chain
64*

** Includes FX impact on USD payables and pricing lags

53

Appendix

Integrated Supply & Marketing earnings up, despite competitive business to business sector

==> picture [720 x 10] intentionally omitted <==

2015 EBIT
Comment / Source
Reported EBIT
Adjustments:
Add-back: Externalities
Add-back: Non-Cash asset write-offs
672
ASX Results Release
3
FX -$26m; Price timing lags +$23m
19
IT / Card systems; and other hardware (e.g. pumps, tanks)
Underlying Supply & Marketing EBIT 695
2014 EBIT
Comment / Source
Marketing & Distribution
Refining & Supply
Less Lytton Refinery
Supply & Marketing
Adjustments
Add-back Kurnell conversion costs
Less: Favourable externalities
Rounding
812
Full Year Results 2014 presentation, page 19
64
Full Year Results 2014 presentation, page 19
876
(218)
Now reported separately; Full Year Results 2014 presentation (p.37)
658
61
Full Year Results 2014 presentation, page 37
(76)
Full Year Results 2014 presentation, page 37
Underlying Supply & Marketing EBIT 644
Kurnell Conversion
Add-back: Kurnell refinery operating losses
Less: Kurnell Terminal costs(1H 2015)
69
Full Year Results 2014 presentation, page 37
(65)
New costs;Includes$26m depreciation
2014 EBIT Equivalent 647

==> picture [284 x 57] intentionally omitted <==

54

Appendix: Productivity

Company-wide efficiency and organisation structure review “Tabula Rasa” - Benefits

==> picture [720 x 10] intentionally omitted <==

Tabula Rasa 2016 Expected Recurring Savings 2016 Expected Recurring Savings
$M Comments
Head count reduction (net 250-300 FTEs, previously approx. 350FTEs) 40 - 45 Previously $40m - $50m
Head count down
Cost savings per headcount up
Increased offshoring of IT services 10 On track
Improved procurement of non-fuel goods and services 10 On track
via Singapore procurement function
Other cost and efficiency opportunities 20 - 35 Previously $20m - $30m
Total Recurring Benefits 80 - 100

2015 Realised Benefits ($m)
approx. 50

2014 Realised Benefits ($m)
approx. 15

Cumulative benefits ($m)
approx. 65
Additional one off Benefits
  1. Working Capital: Delivered one-off inventory reduction of around 1 million barrels in 2015 across the supply chain

  2. US Private placement repaid early 2014- est. $15m in interest savings over 16mth period from January 2015 to April 2016 - on track

==> picture [284 x 57] intentionally omitted <==

55

Appendix: Balance Sheet

Flexible Balance Sheet Supports growth, capital management and a competitive dividend

==> picture [720 x 10] intentionally omitted <==

Diverse funding sources in excess of funding requirements

Current sources of funding Current sources of funding Current sources of funding
A$m Source
A$ notes* 150 Australian and Asian
institutional
Bank facilities 600 Australian and global banks
Inventory
finance facility
250 Australian bank
Hybrid* 550 Australian and Asian retail and
institutional investors
$1,550m
  • Fully drawn facilities

==> picture [320 x 296] intentionally omitted <==

----- Start of picture text -----

Debt maturity profile
150
250 550
200
150 150
100
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Beyond
2020
USD Notes Bank Loans Inventory Finance AUD Notes Hybrid
----- End of picture text -----

==> picture [284 x 57] intentionally omitted <==

56

Appendix

Kurnell Closure Cash-flow versus provision – tracking to plan

Item Description Indicative
amount
Timing
Closure costs Includes redundancy, $(430)m* Majority of redundancies took place 4Q 2014,
decommissioning and $13 million remaining at 31 December 2015
remediation Decommissioning complete (2015)
Remediation post removal of plant
Terminal conversion Conversion and expansion $(270)m Work commenced 2012
costs of current import facilities Refinery closure sequence commenced
October 2014
Residual wharf and tank upgrade work
through 2015 and 2016 (post refinery closure)
(est. $50m, unchanged; $46m spent in 2015)
Working capital release Working capital ~$200m Reduction of 2.0m barrels (reflected in lower
(Requirements of operating net 2014 debt levels)
a refined product import
facility are lower than
Completed 2014
operating an oil refinery)
Tax credit Benefit from tax write- ~$120m Involves the tax write-down of c.$400m in
down of assets assets
Now completed
  • Pre-tax estimates

==> picture [284 x 57] intentionally omitted <==

57

Appendix AUD-USD Exchange Rate

==> picture [720 x 10] intentionally omitted <==

==> picture [588 x 374] intentionally omitted <==

----- Start of picture text -----

AUD vs USD
1.10
1.05
1.00
0.95
0.90
0.85
0.80
0.75
0.70
0.65
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2015 2014 2013 Source = HSRA Reuters
----- End of picture text -----

==> picture [284 x 57] intentionally omitted <==

58

Appendix

Commodity Exposure - Oil Prices

==> picture [720 x 10] intentionally omitted <==

==> picture [657 x 349] intentionally omitted <==

----- Start of picture text -----

USD/bbl Dated Brent Prices
$120
$110
$100
$90
$80
$70
$60
$50
$40
$30
$20
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2015 2014 2013 Source = Reuters
----- End of picture text -----

==> picture [284 x 57] intentionally omitted <==

59

Appendix

Product Prices - Regional Traded Petrol

==> picture [720 x 10] intentionally omitted <==

==> picture [660 x 365] intentionally omitted <==

----- Start of picture text -----

USD/bbl Unleaded (Platts 92Ron)
$140
$130
$120
$110
$100
$90
$80
$70
$60
$50
$40
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2015 2014 2013 Source = Reuters
----- End of picture text -----

==> picture [284 x 57] intentionally omitted <==

60

Appendix Product Prices - Regional Diesel

==> picture [720 x 10] intentionally omitted <==

==> picture [644 x 356] intentionally omitted <==

----- Start of picture text -----

USD/bbl Diesel (Platts 10 ppm)
$140
$130
$120
$110
$100
$90
$80
$70
$60
$50
$40
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2015 2014 2013 Source = Reuters
----- End of picture text -----

==> picture [284 x 57] intentionally omitted <==

61

Appendix Summary Financial Information

==> picture [720 x 10] intentionally omitted <==

2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010
Dividends
Dividends ($/share)
1.17 0.20 0.34 0.40 0.45 0.60
Dividend payout ratio - RCOP basis (excl. significant items) 50% 38% 28% 24% 46% 51%
Dividend franking percentage 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Other data
Total revenue ($m)
20,027 24,231 24,676 23,542 22,400 18,931
Earnings per share - HCOP basis (cents per share)
193 7 196 21 (264) 117
Earnings per share - RCOP basis (cents per share) (excl.
significant items)
233 183 123 170 98 118
Earnings before interest and tax - RCOP basis ($m) (excl.
significant items)
977 794 551 756 442 500
Operating cash flow per share ($/share)
- 2.45 2.25 1.48 1.65 1.59
Interest cover - RCOP basis (excl. significant items)
12.7 7.1 6.2 7.8 6.5 8.7
Return on capital employed - RCOP basis (excl. significant items) 20% 16% 10% 16% 9% 9%
Total equity ($m)
2,788 2,533 2,597 2,160 2,218 3,083
Return on equity (members of the parent entity) after tax - (HCOP
basis)
19% 1% 20% 3% -32% 10%
Total assets ($m)
5,105 5,129 6,021 5,386 4,861 5,291
Net tangible asset backing ($/share)
9.60 8.64 9.05 7.55 7.82 11.08
Net debt ($m)
432 639 742 740 617 544
Net debt to net debt plus equity 13% 20% 22% 26% 22% 15%

==> picture [284 x 57] intentionally omitted <==

62

IMPORTANT NOTICE

==> picture [720 x 10] intentionally omitted <==

This presentation for Caltex Australia Limited is designed to provide:

  • an overview of the financial and operational highlights for the Caltex Australia Group for the 12 months period ended 31 December; and

  • a high level overview of aspects of the operations of the Caltex Australia Group, including comments about Caltex's expectations of the outlook for 2016 and future years, as at 23 February 2016.

This presentation contains forward-looking statements relating to operations of the Caltex Australia Group that are based on management’s own current expectations, estimates and projections about matters relevant to Caltex’s future financial performance. Words such as “likely”, “aims”, “looking forward”, “potential”, “anticipates”, “expects”, “predicts”, “plans”, “targets”, “believes” and “estimates” and similar expressions are intended to identify forward-looking statements.

References in the presentation to assumptions, estimates and outcomes and forward-looking statements about assumptions, estimates and outcomes, which are based on internal business data and external sources, are uncertain given the nature of the industry, business risks, and other factors. Also, they may be affected by internal and external factors that may have a material effect on future business performance and results. No assurance or guarantee is, or should be taken to be, given in relation to the future business performance or results of the Caltex Australia Group or the likelihood that the assumptions, estimates or outcomes will be achieved.

While management has taken every effort to ensure the accuracy of the material in the presentation, the presentation is provided for information only. Caltex Australia Limited, its officers and management exclude and disclaim any liability in respect of anything done in reliance on the presentation.

All forward-looking statements made in this presentation are based on information presently available to management and Caltex Australia Limited assumes no obligation to update any forward looking- statements. Nothing in this presentation constitutes investment advice and this presentation shall not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of any offer to buy any securities or otherwise engage in any investment activity. You should make your own enquiries and take your own advice in Australia (including financial and legal advice) before making an investment in the company's shares or in making a decision to hold or sell your shares. You should also refer to Caltex Australia Limited’s 2015 Annual Review and Annual Report.

==> picture [284 x 57] intentionally omitted <==

63