AI assistant
Allgeier SE — M&A Activity 2012
Aug 6, 2012
28_rns_2012-08-06_a81eb804-d946-4944-80f7-f7e9f0ec0c4b.pdf
M&A Activity
Open in viewerOpens in your device viewer
Allgeier Holding SE
Recommendation: BUY (BUY)
Risk: MEDIUM (MEDIUM) Price target: EUR 19.00 (19.00)
Major acquisition in the personnel services business area
- Allgeier has announced the takeover of 100% of the shares in TECOPS (the merged tecops personal GmbH and tecops IT-Spezialisten GmbH). TECOPS' range of services focuses on personnel outsourcing in the IT and commercial area, the mediation of IT specialists, and project services. The company has already implemented several major outsourcing projects for customers in the past. TECOPS has access to more than 60,000 professionals in the commercial and IT sector. According to statements of Allgeier's Management, a significant part of the pool of experts consists of IT experts which will complement Allgeier's scope of services in its Staffing & Recruiting business. Within Allgeier Group, this business field is currently mainly served by Goetzfried AG (recently merged with Next GmbH) and U.N.P., both accessing a pool of >70,000 IT specialists and engineers. TECOPS has a staff of 1,400 permanent employees and is also active in the field of employee assignment. Differently from Allgeier's former temping business which was sold in March 2008 TECOPS specializes mainly in the field of IT experts.
- The business areas of TECOPS and Allgeier complement each other ideally. We expect significant synergies, for instance, from the combination of TECOPS' and Goetzfried's freelanceer staffing business which will now be able to cover the entire range of services and prices. TEPCOS' business is highly profitable and fast-growing. tecops personal GmbH's revenues and number of employees have both grown by a factor of ten within the last five years (source: Crosswater Job Guide/Website of Tepcos). In 2010, for instance, revenues of tecops personal GmbH grew by 32% to reach EUR 32.6m, with an EBIT margin of 6.0% in 2009 and 4.9% in 2010 (source: electronic company register). Revenues of tecops IT-Spezialisten GmbH were probably in the medium single-digit million euro range (only the balance sheet is available). According to Allgeier's press release, the revenues of the recently merged companies exceeded EUR 50m in 2011. According to Crosswater Job Guide/Tepcos, revenues amounted to >EUR 15m in 1Q 2012 (+25% YOY), so that we expect them to easily exceed 60m in FY 2012. Allgeier's Management indicated that the aggregated EBIT margin of both companies currently is around 7-8%. (Continued on next page).
| Key data (takeover of TECOPS assumed as of 1/10/12; EASY SOFTWARE not yet included) | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Y/E Dec 31, EUR m | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012E | 2013E | 2014E | ||
| Sales | 223.5 | 308.7 | 378.8 | 462.8 | 565.9 | 611.2 | ||
| EBITDA | 14.4 | 18.1 | 22.3 | 30.1 | 40.2 | 44.6 | ||
| EBITA | 12.8 | 15.6 | 19.0 | 25.6 | 32.9 | 36.6 | ||
| EBIT | 8.0 | 11.0 | 12.0 | 19.3 | 26.9 | 31.1 | ||
| Net result | 5.2 | 8.3 | 4.4 | 10.7 | 15.9 | 18.7 | ||
| Basic EPS | 0.60 | 0.99 | 0.52 | 1.27 | 1.87 | 2.21 | ||
| Adjusted EPS | 0.98 | 1.18 | 1.27 | 1.78 | 2.36 | 2.66 | ||
| DPS | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.50 | ||
| EBITDA margin | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.3% | ||
| EBITA margin | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.0% | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 7.6 | 6.1 | 4.9 | 3.6 | 2.7 | 2.5 | ||
| P/E | 17.7 | 10.6 | 20.1 | 8.3 | 5.6 | 4.8 | ||
| Source: CBS Research AG, Allgeier Holding AG |
06 August 2012
Short company profile:
Allgeier Holding SE, headquartered in Munich, is one of the leading IT consultancy and service companies in the German-speaking countries. With their units IT Solutions, IT Services & Recruiting, and Project Solutions, Allgeier offers a comprehensive range of services from the initial concept through implementation to the operation of IT landscapes. Allgeier's operational subsidiaries have >2,500 employees as well as >1,400 freelance experts serving some 3,000 customers in virtually all sectors.
| Share data: Share price (EUR, latest closing price): Shares outstanding (m): Market capitalisation (EUR m): Enterprise value (EUR m): Ø daily trading volume (3 m., no. of shares): |
10.52 8.4 88.2 109.7 9,706 |
|
|---|---|---|
| Performance data: High 52 weeks (EUR): Low 52 weeks (EUR): Absolute performance (12 months): |
12.89 9.30 0.7% |
|
| Relative performance vs. CDAX: 1 month 3 months 6 months 12 months |
-5.8% -14.1% -9.3% -8.9% |
|
| Shareholders: Supervisory Board & Management Board: Own shares: Institutional investors: Other free float: |
42% 7% 9% 42% |
|
| Financial calendar: 9M report: |
8 November 2012 | |
| Author: Close Brothers Seydler Research AG Phone: Email: |
Martin Decot (Analyst) +49 (0) 69-977 84 56 0 www.cbseydlerresearch.ag |
[email protected] |
Please notice the information on the preparation of this document, the disclaimer, the advice regarding possible conflicts of interests, and the mandatory information required by § 34b WpHG (Securities Trading Law) at the end of this document. This financial analysis in accordance with § 34b WpHG is exclusively intended for distribution to individuals that buy or sell financial instruments at their own account or at the account of others in connection with their trading activities, occupation, or employment.
The purchase price will be an undisclosed double-digit amount in millions of euros. Due to the strong earnings growth of TEPCOS, we do not expect that the applied EBIT multiple will be relatively low. No earn-out component was mentioned in the press release. In our financial model, we provisionally assume that the price will be paid in cash before the end of 3Q. However, in view of the facts that the vendor of TECOPS intends to invest in a significant shareholding in Allgeier SE, and that Allgeier held a number of 686,954 own shares at the end of 1Q 2012, we do not rule out that part of the price will be paid in Allgeier shares. The agreements are expected to be executed within the coming weeks. We suppose that this timeframe might be subject to changes in case Allgeier's takeover of EASY SOFTWARE will also be successful. Cartel authorities might scrutinize the TECOPS takeover somewhat deeper in this case, but we do not expect any difficulties from this side even if both takeovers will take place. The acceptance period for the EASY SOFTWARE takeover bid will end on 21 August 2012. The offer is subject to the attainment of a 75% minimum acceptance quota which will mainly depend on EASY SOFTWARE's two major shareholders (see our update from 6 July 2012).
In order to offer a rough impression of the P&L metrics which the intended takeovers would imply for Allgeier, we simply added our rough FY 2012 sales and earnings estimates for Tecops and EASY SOFTWARE to our estimates for Allgeier (see table below). This approach still does not consider the expected dates of first consolidation, but only results in aggregated pro forma figures.
Purchase price still undisclosed
We do not expect any difficulties from cartel authorities even in case the EASY SOFTWARE takeover will also take place
Combined pro forma figures 2012E
Aggregate sales and earnings of Allgeier and takeover targets (2012E)
| + TECOPS | EASY SOFTWARE |
Sum Allgeier + TECOPS + EASY |
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EURm | 2012E | 2012E | 2012E | 2012E | 2012E* |
| Sales | 446.5 | 65.1 | 511.6 | 29.2 | 540.8 |
| EBITDA as % of sales |
28.9 6.5% |
5.1 7.9% |
34.0 6.6% |
5.3 18.2% |
39.3 7.3% |
We assume first consolidation of TECOPS as of 1 October 2012
Change in sales and earnings estimates of CBS Research
| Allgeier | TECOPS | Sum Allgeier + TECOPS |
EASY SOFTWARE |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EURm | 2012E | 2012E | 2012E | 2012E | |||
| Sales | 446.5 | 65.1 | 511.6 | 29.2 | |||
| EBITDA as % of sales |
28.9 5.1 34.0 6.5% 7.9% 6.6% |
5.3 18.2% |
|||||
| While we still do not incorporate the takeover of EASY SOFTWARE in our estimates before its completion, we do factor in the TECOPS deal as we do not see any reason why this transaction should not be concluded. We increase our sales and earnings estimates, cautiously assuming first consolidation of TECOPS as of 1 October 2012. As the impact from the purchase price allocation (PPA) on assets and future depreciation and amortisation of the Group is still rather unpredictable, we recommend investors to focus on our EBITDA estimates until the Group's balance sheet after PPA will have been published and considered in our estimates. Change in sales and earnings estimates of CBS Research |
|||||||
| 2012E | 2013E | 2014E | |||||
| EURm (except for EPS) | new | o ld |
new | o ld |
new | o ld |
|
| Sales | 462.8 | 446.5 | 565.9 | 497.4 | 611.2 | 537.1 | |
| EBITDA | 30.1 | 28.9 | 40.2 | 34.3 | 44.6 | 36.9 | |
| EBIT | 19.3 | 18.5 | 26.9 | 22.5 | 31.1 | 26.6 | |
| Net result after minorities | 10.7 | 10.2 | 15.9 | 13.1 | 18.7 | 15.9 | |
| EPS (EUR) | 1.27 | 1.20 | 1.87 | 1.54 | 2.21 | 1.87 | |
| Source: CBS Research AG |
BUY
Our valuation now indicates a fair value per share of EUR 20.31. Due to the fact that the purchase price for TECOPS and the effects from the PPA are still subject to rather arbitrary assumption, we nevertheless leave our price target for Allgeier unchanged at EUR 19.00 for the time being. We maintain 'BUY'.
| Weighting factor |
Fair value per share (EUR) |
|
|---|---|---|
| Peer group valuation | 50.0% | 19.37 |
| DCF valuation | 50.0% | 21.25 |
| Fair value per share (EUR) | 20.31 |
Source: CBS Research AG
Multiple-based valuation
| Company name | P / E | EV / EBIT | EV / EBITDA | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012E | 2013E | 2014E | 2012E | 2013E | 2014E | 2012E | 2013E | 2014E | |||
| Allgeier (based on CBSR estimates) | 8.3 | 5.6 | 4.8 | 5.7 | 4.1 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 2.7 | 2.5 | ||
| European IT service/consulting companies (market cap below EUR 1bn): | |||||||||||
| ASSYSTEM | 8.6 | 8.0 | 6.9 | 4.6 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 3.2 | ||
| BOUVET ASA | 9.3 | 8.1 | 7.4 | 6.0 | 5.2 | 4.8 | 5.6 | 4.8 | 4.4 | ||
| CENIT AG | 10.9 | 9.9 | 8.6 | 4.3 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 2.6 | ||
| CONNECTA AB | 10.2 | 8.4 | 7.7 | 7.2 | 5.9 | 5.4 | 6.8 | 5.7 | 5.2 | ||
| COR&FJA AG | 14.0 | 9.7 | 7.2 | 13.0 | 8.8 | 6.9 | 5.2 | 4.4 | 4.4 | ||
| DATAGROUP AG | 12.0 | 7.2 | 6.8 | 12.5 | 8.1 | 7.6 | 5.9 | 5.6 | 5.6 | ||
| DEVOTEAM SA | 12.0 | 7.4 | 5.7 | 4.7 | 3.9 | 3.4 | 4.3 | 3.2 | 2.6 | ||
| ECONOCOM GROUP | 9.2 | 8.2 | 7.1 | 6.2 | 5.9 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.2 | 4.7 | ||
| GFI INFORMATIQUE | 7.9 | 6.7 | 6.9 | 7.1 | 6.6 | 6.3 | 5.5 | 5.1 | 5.1 | ||
| GFT TECHNOLOGIES AG | 9.5 | 7.9 | 7.6 | 5.4 | 4.7 | 4.3 | 4.7 | 4.2 | 3.9 | ||
| GROUPE STERIA SCA | 5.1 | 4.4 | 3.9 | 5.1 | 4.4 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 3.2 | 3.1 | ||
| ORDINA NV | 16.9 | 9.7 | 6.2 | 22.7 | 12.5 | 6.4 | 6.2 | 5.1 | 3.9 | ||
| OSIATIS | 5.8 | 5.4 | 5.1 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 2.8 | ||
| PHOENIX IT GROUP LTD | 6.2 | 5.9 | n.m. | 6.6 | 6.6 | n.m. | 4.2 | 4.2 | n.m. | ||
| SOLUCOM | 12.0 | 10.7 | n.m. | 6.0 | 5.4 | n.m. | 5.5 | 4.9 | n.m. | ||
| SOPRA GROUP | 7.0 | 6.3 | 5.7 | 4.9 | 4.5 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 3.9 | 3.6 | ||
| TIETO OYJ | 11.4 | 9.6 | 8.8 | 10.1 | 7.6 | 6.9 | 5.4 | 4.7 | 4.4 | ||
| ADESSO AG | 8.0 | 6.9 | 5.5 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 1.8 | ||
| Average | 9.8 | 7.8 | 6.7 | 7.5 | 5.8 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 4.2 | 3.8 | ||
| Median | Weight: | 50.0% | 9.4 | 7.9 | 6.9 | 6.0 | 5.3 | 4.6 | 5.0 | 4.3 | 3.9 |
| Major players with market cap above EUR 1bn: | |||||||||||
| ATOS | 12.3 | 10.5 | 9.4 | 7.8 | 6.6 | 6.1 | 4.7 | 4.2 | 3.9 | ||
| CAP GEMINI | 11.5 | 10.5 | 9.2 | 6.8 | 6.2 | 5.5 | 5.1 | 4.8 | 4.4 | ||
| INDRA SISTEMAS SA | 8.0 | 7.2 | 6.5 | 7.6 | 6.9 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 5.8 | 5.3 | ||
| LOGICA PLC | 9.9 | 9.0 | 8.3 | 9.2 | 8.5 | 8.0 | 6.7 | 6.3 | 5.9 | ||
| Average | 10.4 | 9.3 | 8.3 | 7.9 | 7.1 | 6.5 | 5.7 | 5.3 | 4.9 | ||
| Median | Weight: | 25.0% | 10.7 | 9.7 | 8.8 | 7.7 | 6.8 | 6.2 | 5.7 | 5.3 | 4.9 |
| Indian IT service companies: | |||||||||||
| INFOSYS LTD | 13.4 | 11.9 | 11.0 | 9.3 | 8.7 | 8.0 | 8.6 | 8.1 | 7.3 | ||
| TATA CONSULTANCY SVCS LTD | n.m. | 14.3 | n.m. | 12.4 | 11.2 | n.m. | 11.7 | 10.4 | n.m. | ||
| WIPRO LTD | 13.2 | n.m. | 10.6 | 11.2 | 10.3 | 9.2 | 9.9 | 9.1 | 7.8 | ||
| Average | Weight: | 25.0% | 13.3 | 13.1 | 10.8 | 11.0 | 10.1 | 8.6 | 10.1 | 9.2 | 7.6 |
| Median | 13.3 | 13.1 | 10.8 | 11.2 | 10.3 | 8.6 | 9.9 | 9.1 | 7.6 | ||
| Weighted average of peer groups | 10.7 | 9.7 | 8.4 | 7.7 | 6.9 | 6.0 | 6.4 | 5.8 | 5.1 | ||
| EURm, except EPS (EUR) | EPS | EBIT | EBITDA | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012E | 2013E | 2014E | 2012E | 2013E | 2014E | 2012E | 2013E | 2014E | ||
| Allgeier Holding AG (estimates by CBSR) | 1.27 | 1.87 | 2.21 | 19.3 | 26.9 | 31.1 | 30.1 | 40.2 | 44.6 | |
| Applied multiples (peer group - weighted average) | 10.7 | 9.7 | 8.4 | 7.7 | 6.9 | 6.0 | 6.4 | 5.8 | 5.1 | |
| Fair Enterprise Value | - | - | - | 148.6 | 184.6 | 186.2 | 193.5 | 231.5 | 226.4 | |
| + Liquid funds | 76.3 | |||||||||
| - Financial debt incl. pension provisions | -93.2 | |||||||||
| - Minority interests | -4.6 | |||||||||
| Fair value of equity from each multiple | 113.5 | 151.8 | 154.5 | 127.1 | 163.1 | 164.7 | 172.0 | 210.0 | 204.8 | |
| Average of derived fair values | 162.4 | |||||||||
| Premium (discount) vs. peer group companies | 0% | |||||||||
| Fair value of equity | 162.4 | |||||||||
| Number of shares outstanding (m) | 8.4 | |||||||||
| Fair value per share (EUR) | 19.37 |
Source: Bloomberg, CBS Research AG
Discounted Cash Flow Model
| PHASE 1 | PHASE 2 | PHASE 3 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EURm | 2012E | 2013E | 2014E | 2015E | 2016E | 2017E | 2018E | 2019E | 2020E | 2021E | 8 |
| Sales revenues Y-o-Y grow th |
462.8 22.2% |
565.9 22.3% |
611.2 8.0% |
641.7 5.0% |
661.0 3.0% |
680.8 3.0% |
701.2 3.0% |
722.3 3.0% |
744.0 3.0% |
755.1 1.5% |
|
| EBIT EBIT margin as % of sales |
19.3 4.2% |
26.9 4.7% |
31.1 5.1% |
32.7 5.1% |
34.4 5.2% |
34.7 5.1% |
33.7 4.8% |
32.5 4.5% |
33.5 4.5% |
34.0 4.5% |
|
| Income tax on EBIT (cash tax rate) Depreciation and amortisation |
-7.6 10.7 |
-9.7 13.3 |
-12.4 13.5 |
-10.1 10.9 |
-10.3 7.3 |
-10.4 7.9 |
-10.1 7.6 |
-9.8 6.6 |
-10.0 5.7 |
-10.2 5.9 |
|
| Change in net working capital and non-cash income and expenses* |
-7.0 | -6.4 | -3.7 | -4.7 | -3.7 | -3.7 | -3.8 | -4.0 | -4.1 | -3.2 | |
| Net capital expenditure incl. earnouts | -36.4 | -10.1 | -13.9 | -5.6 | -5.1 | -6.4 | -7.2 | -7.4 | -6.3 | -5.9 | |
| Free cash flow | -21.0 | 14.0 | 14.6 | 23.2 | 22.6 | 22.1 | 20.2 | 18.0 | 18.8 | 20.6 | |
| Present values | -20.2 | 12.3 | 11.7 | 16.9 | 15.0 | 13.4 | 11.1 | 9.1 | 8.6 | 8.6 | 113.1 |
| Present value Phase 1 Present value Phase 2 Present value Phase 3 Total present value |
3.8 82.8 113.1 199.7 |
2 % 41% 57% 100% |
Risk free rate Equity risk premium Debt risk premium Tax shield (Phase 3) |
3.50% 6.00% 1.40% 30.0% |
Target equity ratio Beta WACC Terminal growth |
80.0% 1.20 9.25% 1.50% |
|||||
| + Liquid funds - Financial debt** and minority interests |
76.3 -97.8 |
Latest report 0.0 -93.2 |
31/12/10 61.3 -32.5 |
Sensitivity analysis | Terminal growth (Phase 3) | ||||||
| Fair value of equity | 178.2 | 8.25% 8.75% |
0.5% 23.08 21.23 |
1.0% 24.17 22.15 |
1.5% 25.43 23.19 |
2.0% 26.88 24.39 |
2.5% 28.58 25.79 |
||||
| Number of shares outstanding (m) | 8.4 | WACC | 9.25% 9.75% |
19.59 18.13 |
20.37 18.79 |
21.25 19.54 |
22.25 20.39 |
23.40 21.35 |
|||
| Fair value per share (EUR) | 21.25 | 10.25% | 16.82 | 17.39 | 18.03 | 18.74 | 19.55 |
*Other non-cash income and expenses comprise mainly expenses from additions to provisions
** Financial debt incl. pension provisions.
Source: CBS Research AG
Profit and loss account
| IFRS | 2008 EURm |
2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012E | 2013E | 2014E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales YoY grow th |
178.7 34.0% |
223.5 25.1% |
308.7 38.1% |
378.8 22.7% |
462.8 22.2% |
565.9 22.3% |
611.2 8.0% |
| Inventory changes (finished goods, WIP) | 0.0 | -0.1 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Other own work capitalised | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Total output | 178.7 | 223.5 | 308.8 | 379.1 | 463.0 | 566.2 | 611.4 |
| Cost of materials | -111.2 | -137.5 | -182.5 | -220.2 | -259.9 | -299.1 | -322.6 |
| as % of total output | -62.2% | -61.5% | -59.1% | -58.1% | -56.1% | -52.8% | -52.8% |
| Gross profit as % of total output |
67.5 37.8% |
86.0 38.5% |
126.2 40.9% |
158.9 41.9% |
203.1 43.9% |
267.1 47.2% |
288.8 47.2% |
| Personnel expenses as % of total output |
-44.3 -24.8% |
-59.5 -26.6% |
-88.4 -28.6% |
-109.0 -28.7% |
-140.1 -30.2% |
-190.5 -33.6% |
-203.8 -33.3% |
| Other operating income as % of total output |
2.1 1.2% |
4.0 1.8% |
5.8 1.9% |
6.6 1.7% |
6.9 1.5% |
9.1 1.6% |
9.2 1.5% |
| Other operating expenses as % of total output |
-13.1 -7.3% |
-16.1 -7.2% |
-25.5 -8.2% |
-34.2 -9.0% |
-39.9 -8.6% |
-45.6 -8.0% |
-49.5 -8.1% |
| EBITDA as % of total output |
12.1 6.8% |
14.4 6.5% |
18.1 5.9% |
22.3 5.9% |
30.1 6.5% |
40.2 7.1% |
44.6 7.3% |
| Operating EBITA* as % of total output |
10.8 6.0% |
12.8 5.7% |
15.6 5.1% |
19.0 5.0% |
25.6 5.5% |
32.9 5.8% |
36.6 6.0% |
| Depreciation and amortization, excl. goodwill impairments as % of total output Goodwill impairments |
-4.3 -2.4% -4.0 |
-4.1 -1.9% -2.3 |
-7.0 -2.3% 0.0 |
-10.3 -2.7% 0.0 |
-10.7 -2.3% 0.0 |
-13.3 -2.4% 0.0 |
-13.5 -2.2% 0.0 |
| as % of total output | -2.2% | -1.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| EBIT as % of total output |
3.9 2.2% |
8.0 3.6% |
11.0 3.6% |
12.0 3.2% |
19.3 4.2% |
26.9 4.7% |
31.1 5.1% |
| Interest income | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| Interest expenses | -2.2 | -1.8 | -1.6 | -2.9 | -3.1 | -2.9 | -2.9 |
| Result from sale of temping business | 82.6 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| EBT (Earnings before income taxes) as % of total output |
87.4 48.9% |
7.0 3.2% |
10.2 3.3% |
9.5 2.5% |
16.6 3.6% |
24.1 4.3% |
28.4 4.6% |
| Taxes on income as % of EBT |
-7.1 -8.1% |
-2.1 -29.6% |
-1.5 -14.4% |
-4.2 -44.1% |
-5.0 -30.0% |
-7.2 -30.0% |
-8.5 -30.0% |
| Net income of the group as % of total output |
80.4 45.0% |
5.0 2.2% |
8.7 2.8% |
5.3 1.4% |
11.6 2.5% |
16.9 3.0% |
19.8 3.2% |
| Minority interests | -0.6 | 0.2 | -0.4 | -0.9 | -0.9 | -1.0 | -1.1 |
| Net income attributable to shareholders | 79.7 | 5.2 | 8.3 | 4.4 | 10.7 | 15.9 | 18.7 |
| Basic earnings per share (EUR) | 8.93 | 0.60 | 0.99 | 0.52 | 1.27 | 1.87 | 2.21 |
| Adjusted earnings per share (EUR)** | 0.85 | 0.98 | 1.18 | 1.27 | 1.78 | 2.36 | 2.66 |
| * Operating EBITA: Earnings before interest, taxes and amortisation/impairments of assets from PPAs (goodwill, acquired order balances, customer lists, etc.) and effects on earnings from subsequent purchase price adjustments/earnouts ** Adjusted EPS = Adjusted net income divided by weighted average of shares outstanding; Adjusted net income = Operating EBITA minus financial result minus assumed taxes (30% tax rate) minus minority interests. Source: CBS Research AG, Allgeier Holding AG |
Balance sheet
| IFRS EURm |
2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012E | 2013E | 2014E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Assets | |||||||
| Noncurrent assets | 45.6 | 47.9 | 63.7 | 113.0 | 131.1 | 123.7 | 116.2 |
| as % of total assets | 23.6% | 29.9% | 31.2% | 46.6% | 42.6% | 38.5% | 35.1% |
| Intangible assets | 41.9 | 42.3 | 57.4 | 102.8 | 120.5 | 113.1 | 104.8 |
| Property, plant and equipment | 3.4 | 4.6 | 5.4 | 8.8 | 10.3 | 10.3 | 11.0 |
| Investments in companies consolidated at equity | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Deferred taxes | 0.3 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Current assets as % of total assets |
147.8 76.4% |
112.2 70.1% |
140.4 68.8% |
129.2 53.4% |
176.8 57.4% |
197.9 61.5% |
215.2 64.9% |
| Inventories | 1.0 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 4.5 |
| Trade receivables | 49.6 | 52.9 | 66.5 | 81.8 | 107.0 | 121.7 | 131.4 |
| Other assets and receivables | 28.1 | 7.4 | 9.5 | 12.4 | 17.6 | 15.9 | 16.7 |
| Cash and cash equivalents | 69.1 | 49.2 | 61.3 | 31.9 | 48.1 | 56.0 | 62.5 |
| Total assets | 193.4 | 160.1 | 204.1 | 242.1 | 307.9 | 321.6 | 331.3 |
| Shareholders' equity and liabilities | |||||||
| Shareholders' equity as % of total equity and liabilities |
81.8 42.3% |
79.5 49.7% |
85.5 41.9% |
88.2 36.4% |
95.7 31.1% |
108.4 33.7% |
124.0 37.4% |
| Subscribed capital | 9.1 | 9.1 | 9.1 | 9.1 | 9.1 | 9.1 | 9.1 |
| Capital reserve | 11.3 | 11.3 | 11.3 | 11.3 | 11.3 | 11.3 | 11.3 |
| Retained earnings | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Own shares at acquisition cost | -1.7 | -3.6 | -4.5 | -5.2 | -5.2 | -5.2 | -5.2 |
| Profit carried forward | -18.1 | 56.5 | 57.4 | 61.6 | 61.8 | 68.3 | 80.1 |
| Net income for the year | 79.7 | 5.2 | 8.3 | 4.4 | 10.7 | 15.9 | 18.7 |
| Changes in equity recognised directly in equity | -0.9 | -0.9 | -0.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 |
| Minority interests | 2.0 | 1.8 | 3.7 | 4.5 | 5.4 | 6.4 | 7.5 |
| Noncurrent liabilities and deferred income as % of total equity and liabilities |
24.0 12.4% |
23.8 14.9% |
31.6 15.5% |
35.5 14.7% |
99.8 32.4% |
93.2 29.0% |
80.2 24.2% |
| Non-current profit-participation liabilities (PREPS) | 13.0 | 13.0 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Noncurrent financial liabilities incl. promissory notes | 2.2 | 0.3 | 15.6 | 2.6 | 72.6 | 72.6 | 70.0 |
| Provisions for pensions and similar obligations Other noncurrent liabilities (mainly earnout |
0.3 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| components from company acquisitions) | 3.1 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 22.8 | 19.1 | 14.9 | 7.0 |
| Deferred tax liabilities | 5.5 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 9.2 | 7.0 | 4.5 | 2.0 |
| Current liabilities as % of total equity and liabilities |
87.6 45.3% |
56.7 35.4% |
87.0 42.6% |
118.4 48.9% |
112.4 36.5% |
120.0 37.3% |
127.1 38.4% |
| Current profit-participation liabilities (PREPS) | 0.0 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Current financial liabilities | 13.4 | 8.4 | 16.9 | 32.7 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 12.0 |
| Current provisions | 13.1 | 7.8 | 10.8 | 16.1 | 24.7 | 26.3 | 27.7 |
| Trade accounts payable | 22.6 | 23.3 | 29.8 | 36.5 | 40.4 | 44.9 | 48.4 |
| Prepayments received | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Other liabilities incl. earnout components from company acquisitions |
38.5 | 17.3 | 22.5 | 27.1 | 35.3 | 36.8 | 39.0 |
| Total equity and liabilities | 193.4 | 160.1 | 204.1 | 242.1 | 307.9 | 321.6 | 331.3 |
Source: CBS Research AG, Allgeier Holding AG
Cash flow statement
| IFRS EURm |
2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012E | 2013E | 2014E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBIT | 3.9 | 8.0 | 11.0 | 12.0 | 19.3 | 26.9 | 31.1 |
| Depreciation and amortisation | 8.3 | 6.4 | 7.0 | 10.3 | 10.7 | 13.3 | 13.5 |
| Other non-cash income and expenses incl. expenses from additions to provisions |
4.0 | 4.2 | 6.7 | 10.0 | 9.0 | 9.9 | 10.4 |
| Change in non-current provisions | -0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Cash taxes paid/received | -6.1 | -4.7 | -3.2 | -3.8 | -6.5 | -8.7 | -11.3 |
| Cash flow from changes in working capital | -13.3 | -2.2 | -14.5 | -8.8 | -16.1 | -16.3 | -13.6 |
| Cash flow from operating activities | -3.7 | 11.8 | 7.2 | 19.6 | 16.6 | 25.1 | 30.2 |
| Net cash outflows from the purchase and retirement of PP&E and intangible assets |
-2.0 | -1.6 | -2.5 | -4.2 | -4.8 | -5.9 | -6.0 |
| Payments for the purchase of subsidiaries and for the acquisition of assets and rights |
-17.0 | -4.1 | -8.7 | -25.4 | -28.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Purchase price components paid for companies acquired in other periods |
0.0 | -5.0 | -0.9 | -4.0 | -3.1 | -4.2 | -7.9 |
| Investments valued at equity (incl. disposals) | 0.0 | -0.2 | 0.3 | -0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Payment balance from the sale of subsidiaries | 103.7 | -5.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Cash flow from investing activities | 84.7 | -16.3 | -11.9 | -33.7 | -36.1 | -10.1 | -13.9 |
| Payments for own shares | -1.2 | -1.9 | -1.0 | -1.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Net borrowings/retirements of loans and cash flow from promissory notes |
-6.1 | -4.1 | 17.4 | -0.6 | 47.3 | 0.0 | -2.6 |
| Net cash inflow from ABS programme (assignment of trade receivables) |
3.8 | -2.8 | 4.9 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Repayment of profit-participation liabilities | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -7.0 | -6.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Interests paid and received, net | 1.0 | -0.8 | -0.7 | -2.4 | -2.7 | -2.7 | -2.8 |
| Dividends paid | -22.3 | -5.2 | -4.2 | -4.2 | -4.2 | -4.2 | -4.2 |
| Payments to/from shareholders with non-controlling interests and purchases of non-controlling interests |
0.0 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.9 | -0.2 | -0.2 | -0.2 |
| Cash flow from financing activities | -24.9 | -14.9 | 16.4 | -15.2 | 35.6 | -7.1 | -9.8 |
| Total change in cash and cash equivalents | 56.1 | -19.4 | 11.6 | -29.3 | 16.1 | 7.9 | 6.5 |
| Currency-induced changes in cash and cash | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | -0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Cash and cash equivalents at the start of the period | 12.5 | 68.6 | 49.1 | 61.1 | 31.6 | 47.8 | 55.7 |
| Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the period | 68.6 | 49.1 | 61.1 | 31.6 | 47.8 | 55.7 | 62.2 |
| Bank overdraft | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Cash and cash equivalents in the balance sheet | 69.1 | 49.2 | 61.3 | 31.9 | 48.1 | 56.0 | 62.5 |
Source: CBS Research AG, Allgeier Holding AG
Research
Schillerstrasse 27 - 29 60313 Frankfurt am Main
Phone: +49 (0)69 – 977 8456-0
| Roger Peeters Member of the Board |
+49 (0)69 -977 8456- 12 [email protected] |
||
|---|---|---|---|
| Martin Decot | +49 (0)69 -977 8456- 13 [email protected] |
Igor Kim | +49 (0)69 -977 8456- 15 [email protected] |
| Anna von Klopmann | +49 (0)69 -977 8456- 10 [email protected] |
Gennadij Kremer | +49 (0)69 – 977 8456- 23 [email protected] |
| Daniel Kukalj | +49 (0)69 – 977 8456- 21 [email protected] |
Ralf Marinoni | +49 (0)69 -977 8456- 17 [email protected] |
| Manuel Martin | +49 (0)69 -977 8456- 16 [email protected] |
Felix Parmantier | +49 (0)69 -977 8456- 22 [email protected] |
| Marcus Silbe | +49 (0)69 -977 8456- 14 [email protected] |
Veysel Taze | +49 (0)69 -977 8456- 18 [email protected] |
| Ivo Višić | +49 (0)69 -977 8456- 19 [email protected] |
Institutional Sales
Schillerstrasse 27 – 29 60313 Frankfurt am Main
Phone: +49 (0)69 – 9 20 54-400
| Raimar Bock | +49 (0)69 -9 20 54-115 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Head of Sales | [email protected] | ||
| Rüdiger Eich | +49 (0)69 -9 20 54-119 | Sule Erkan | +49 (0)69 -9 20 54-107 |
| (Germany, Switzerland) | [email protected] | (Sales-Support) | [email protected] |
| Dr. James Jackson | +49 (0)69 -9 20 54-113 | Klaus Korzilius | +49 (0)69 -9 20 54-114 |
| (UK) | [email protected] | (Benelux, Germany) | [email protected] |
| Stefan Krewinkel | +49 (0)69 -9 20 54-118 | Markus Laifle | +49 (0)69 -9 20 54-120 |
| (Execution, UK) | [email protected] | (Execution) | [email protected] |
| Michael Laufenberg | +49 (0)69 -9 20 54-112 | Bruno de Lencquesaing | +49 (0)69 -9 20 54-116 |
| (Germany) | [email protected] | (Benelux, France) | [email protected] |
| Christopher Seedorf | +49 (0)69 -9 20 54-110 | Janine Theobald | +49 (0)69 -9 20 54-106 |
| (Sales-Support) | [email protected] | (Austria, Germany) | [email protected] |
| Bas-Jan Walhof | +49 (0)69 -9 20 54-105 | ||
| (Benelux) | [email protected] |
Disclaimer and statement according to § 34b German Securities Trading Act ("Wertpapierhandelsgesetz") in combination with the provisions on financial analysis ("Finanzanalyseverordnung" FinAnV)
This report has been prepared independently of the company analysed by Close Brothers Seydler Research AG and/ or its cooperation partners and the analyst(s) mentioned on the front page (hereafter all are jointly and/or individually called the 'author'). None of Close Brothers Seydler Research AG, Close Brothers Seydler Bank AG or its cooperation partners, the Company or its shareholders has independently verified any of the information given in this document.
Section 34b of the German Securities Trading Act in combination with the FinAnV requires an enterprise preparing a security analysis to point out possible conflicts of interest with respect to the company that is the subject of the analysis.
Close Brothers Seydler Research AG is a majority owned subsidiary of Close Brothers Seydler Bank AG (hereafter ´CBS´). However, Close Brothers Seydler Research AG (hereafter ´CBSR´) provides its research work independent from CBS. CBS is offering a wide range of Services not only including investment banking services and liquidity providing services (designated sponsoring). CBS or CBSR may possess relations to the covered companies as follows (additional information and disclosures will be made available upon request):
- a. CBS holds more than 5% interest in the capital stock of the company that is subject of the analysis.
- b. CBS was a participant in the management of a (co)consortium in a selling agent function for the issuance of financial instruments, which themselves or their issuer is the subject of this financial analysis within the last twelve months.
- c. CBS has provided investment banking and/or consulting services during the last 12 months for the company analysed for which compensation has been or will be paid for.
- d. CBS acts as designated sponsor for the company's securities on the basis of an existing designated sponsorship contract. The services include the provision of bid and ask offers. Due to the designated sponsoring service agreement CBS may regularly possess shares of the company and receives a compensation and/ or provision for its services.
- e. The designated sponsor service agreement includes a contractually agreed provision for research services.
- f. CBSR and the analysed company have a contractual agreement about the preparation of research reports. CBSR receives a compensation in return.
- g. CBS has a significant financial interest in relation to the company that is subject of this analysis.
In this report, the following conflicts of interests are given at the time, when the report has been published: d, f
CBS and/or its employees or clients may take positions in, and may make purchases and/ or sales as principal or agent in the securities or related financial instruments discussed in this analysis. CBS may provide investment banking, consulting, and/ or other services to and/ or serve as directors of the companies referred to in this analysis. No part of the authors compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the recommendations or views expressed.
Recommendation System:
Close Brothers Seydler Research AG uses a 3-level absolute share rating system. The ratings pertain to a time horizon of up to 12 months:
BUY: The expected performance of the share price is above +10%. HOLD: The expected performance of the share price is between 0% and +10%. SELL: The expected performance of the share price is below 0%.
Recommendation history over the last 12 months for the company analysed in this report:
| Date | Recommendation | Price at change date | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 March 2012 | BUY (Initiating Coverage) | EUR 11.80 | EUR 19.00 |
| 20 April 2012 | BUY | EUR 11.75 | EUR 19.00 |
| 10 May 2012 | BUY | EUR 11.60 | EUR 19.00 |
| 6 July 2012 | BUY | EUR 10.70 | EUR 19.00 |
| 6 August 2012 | BUY | EUR 10.52 | EUR 19.00 |
Risk-scaling System:
Close Brothers Seydler Research AG uses a 3-level risk-scaling system. The ratings pertain to a time horizon of up to 12 months:
LOW: The volatility is expected to be lower than the volatility of the benchmark MEDIUM: The volatility is expected to be equal to the volatility of the benchmark HIGH: The volatility is expected to be higher than the volatility of the benchmark
The following valuation methods are used when valuing companies: Multiplier models (price/earnings, price/cash flow, price/book value, EV/Sales, EV/EBIT, EV/EBITA, EV/EBITDA), peer group comparisons, historical valuation approaches, discounting models (DCF, DDM), break-up value approaches or asset valuation approaches. The valuation models are dependent upon macroeconomic measures such as interest, currencies, raw materials and assumptions concerning the economy. In addition, market moods influence the valuation of companies. The figures taken from the income statement, the cash flow statement and the balance sheet upon which the evaluation of companies is based are estimates referring to given dates and therefore subject to risks. These may change at any time without prior notice.
The opinions and forecasts contained in this report are those of the author alone. Material sources of information for preparing this report are publications in domestic and foreign media such as information services (including but not limited to Reuters, VWD, Bloomberg, DPA-AFX), business press (including but not limited to Börsenzeitung, Handelsblatt, Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, Financial Times), professional publications, published statistics, rating agencies as well as publications of the analysed issuers. Furthermore, discussions were held with the management for the purpose of preparing the analysis. Potentially parts of the analysis have been provided to the issuer prior to going to press; no significant changes were made afterwards, however. Any information in this report is based on data considered to be reliable, but no representations or guarantees are made by the author with regard to the accuracy or completeness of the data. The opinions and estimates contained herein constitute our best judgment at this date and time, and are subject to change without notice. Possible errors or incompleteness of the information do not constitute grounds for liability, neither with regard to indirect nor to direct or consequential damages. The views presented on the covered company accurately reflect the personal views of the author. All employees of the author's company who are involved with the preparation and/or the offering of financial analyzes are subject to internal compliance regulations.
The report is for information purposes, it is not intended to be and should not be construed as a recommendation, offer or solicitation to acquire, or dispose of, any of the securities mentioned in this report. Any reference to past performance should not be taken as indication of future performance. The author does not accept any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of material contained in this report. The report is confidential and it is submitted to selected recipients only. The report is prepared for professional investors only and it is not intended for private investors. Consequently, it should not be distributed to any such persons. Also, the report may be communicated electronically before physical copies are available. It may not be reproduced (in whole or in part) to any other investment firm or any other individual person without the prior written approval from the author. The author is not registered in the United Kingdom nor with any U.S. regulatory body.
It has not been determined in advance whether and in what intervals this report will be updated. Unless otherwise stated current prices refer to the closing price of the previous trading day. Any reference to past performance should not be taken as indication of future performance. The author maintains the right to change his opinions without notice, i.e. the opinions given reflect the author's judgment on the date of this report.
This analysis is intended to provide information to assist institutional investors in making their own investment decisions, not to provide investment advice to any specific investor.
By accepting this report the recipient accepts that the above restrictions are binding. German law shall be applicable and court of jurisdiction for all disputes shall be Frankfurt am Main (Germany).
This report should be made available in the United States solely to investors that are (i) "major US institutional investors" (within the meaning of SEC Rule 15a-6 and applicable interpretations relating thereto) that are also "qualified institutional buyers" (QIBs) within the meaning of SEC Rule 144A promulgated by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission pursuant to the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the "Securities Act") or (ii) investors that are not "US Persons" within the meaning of Regulation S under the Securities Act and applicable interpretations relating thereto. The offer or sale of certain securities in the United States may be made to QIBs in reliance on Rule 144A. Such securities may include those offered and sold outside the United States in transactions intended to be exempt from registration pursuant to Regulation S. This report does not constitute in any way an offer or a solicitation of interest in any securities to be offered or sold pursuant to Regulation S. Any such securities may not be offered or sold to US Persons at this time and may be resold to US Persons only if such securities are registered under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and applicable state securities laws, or pursuant to an exemption from registration.
This publication is for distribution in or from the United Kingdom only to persons who are authorised persons or exempted persons within the meaning of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 of the United Kingdom or any order made there under or to investment professionals as defined in Section 19 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 and is not intended to be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons.
insurance companies. The distribution of this publication in other jurisdictions may be restricted by law, and persons into whose possession this publication comes should inform themselves about, and observe, any such restrictions. In particular this publication may not be sent into or distributed, directly or indirectly, in Japan or to any resident thereof.
Responsible Supervisory Authority: Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht (BaFin, Federal Financial Supervisory Authority) Graurheindorferstraße 108 53117 Bonn and Lurgiallee 12 60439 Frankfurt
Schillerstrasse 27 - 29 60313 Frankfurt am Main www.cbseydlerresearch.ag Tel.: 0049 - (0)69 - 97 78 45 60