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Aker BP — Investor Presentation 2024
Feb 8, 2024
3528_rns_2024-02-08_51e4469e-35d9-45c5-94e9-eca3d8bf1f2e.pdf
Investor Presentation
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Q4 and full-year 2023 & strategy update
8 February 2024 Aker BP ASA
Disclaimer
This Document includes and is based, inter alia, on forward-looking information and statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ.
These statements and this Document are based on current expectations, estimates and projections about global economic conditions, the economic conditions of the regions and industries that are major markets for Aker BP ASA's lines of business.
These expectations, estimates and projections are generally identifiable by statements containing words such as "expects", "believes", "estimates" or similar expressions.
Important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expectations include, among others, economic and market conditions in the geographic areas and industries that are or will be major markets for Aker BP ASA's businesses, oil prices, market acceptance of new products and services, changes in governmental regulations, interest rates, fluctuations in currency exchange rates and such other factors as may be discussed from time to time in the Document.
Although Aker BP ASA believes that its expectations and the Document are based upon reasonable assumptions, it can give no assurance that those expectations will be achieved or that the actual results will be as set out in the Document.
Aker BP ASA is making no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of the Document, and neither Aker BP ASA nor any of its directors, officers or employees will have any liability to you or any other persons resulting from your use.
2023 highlights
- Strong performance delivering on targets
- Development projects on track
- Exploration success
- Leading the way in low GHG emissions
- Financially strong & growing dividends
2023 operational improvements
Increasing production…
1,000 barrels oil equivalent per day (mboepd)1
…reducing production cost… USD per boe1
8.3
12.4
…while decarbonising our business
Aker BP emission intensity, kg CO2e per boe
2.8
2023 key financials
5
2023 deliverables
| Original 1 guidance |
Latest 2 guidance |
Actual 2023 |
|
|---|---|---|---|
| Production | 430 | 455 | 457 |
| mboped | -460 | -465 | |
| Production cost | 7.0 | 6.0 | 6.2 |
| USD/boe | -8.0 | -6.5 | |
| Capex | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.3 |
| USD billion | -3.5 | -3.5 | |
| Exploration | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.36 |
| USD billion | -0.5 | -0.5 | |
| Abandonment USD billion |
0.1 -0.2 |
~0.2 | 0.16 |
Aker BP's improvement programme
Strategic alliances
One-team culture with our main suppliers based on common goals and shared incentives
Lean operations
Framework for developing more efficient work processes
Flexible business models
Re-thinking how we structure our interactions with suppliers and business partners
Digitalisation
Essential enabler for building the E&P company of the future
Our strategic priorities
Ambition to lead the industry transformation as the E&P company of the future
Return maximum value to our shareholders and our society
Operate safely and efficiently
World-class oil and gas portfolio
Large scale, low risk assets on the Norwegian Continental Shelf
Safety
Injury frequency (TRIF)1 Serious incident frequency (SIF)1
1) TRIF and SIF in prior years have been restated to reflect a more accurate methodology for measurement of exposure hours. See Quarterly report Q4 2023 for details.
Production
Oil & gas production per area 1,000 mboepd
Johan Sverdrup
Daily oil production since start-up
A giant field with excellent reservoir properties
- Excellent operational performance
- Stable production at elevated capacity level
- Continuously working to optimise production
Aker BP holds 31.6% ownership in the Johan Sverdrup partnership operated by Equinor Copyright Equinor
Production efficiency
Increased production uptime
Rolling 12m, operated assets only
Low-cost operations
Total operational cost1
USD per boe, 2023e
1) Source Wood Mackenzie. Companies included: Aker BP, BP, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, Diamondback Energy, DNO, Eni, EOG Resources, Equinor, ExxonMobil, , Galp Energia, Harbour Energy, Hess Corp., Marathon Oil, OKEA, Pioneer, Shell, TotalEnergies, , Tullow Oil, Vår Energi.
Future operations – modernising and digitalising the way we work
Integration of new concepts
New ways of working
Integrated Operation Centres
Data-driven decisions
New cooperation models
Increased digital Automation competence for all
Remote operations and maintenance
16
Decarbonise our business
Aker BP's decarbonisation strategy
Reducing absolute scope 1&2 GHG emissions before neutralising residual emissions
| Scope 1&2 | Scope 3 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avoid | Reduce | Neutralise | Upstream scope 3 reduction through procurement |
|
| Electrification of | Active energy | Carbon removal | Support new industries and drive technology development |
|
| greenfield assets and portfolio management |
management and brownfield electrification |
offsets for hard to-abate emissions |
Explore potential of CCS | |
| Create value through decarbonisation |
Aker BP's targets
-
- Reduce operated scope 1&2 GHG emissions with 50% by 2030 and ~100% by 2050
-
- Net zero equity share scope 1&2 emissions by 2030
-
- World-class equity share scope 1&2 GHG intensity <4 kg CO2e/boe
-
- World-class methane intensity <0.05 %
140 Aker BP – a global leader in low CO2 emissions
0 20 40 60 80 100 Net emission intensity 2023 kg CO2e per boe, equity share 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
285 largest producing upstream companies
Targeting net zero scope 1&2 emissions by 2030
Aker BP to offset all our remaining emissions using high-quality carbon removal projects
Total estimated equity share scope 1&2 emissions 1 000 tonnes CO2e
Our approach
Avoid
New assets with power from shore Target 100% electrification
Reduce
Continued energy efficiency 2% annual reduction target
Neutralise residual emissions
High quality carbon offsets Removal only, strict verification criteria
Deliver high -return projects on quality, time and cost
Aker BP project overview
770 mmboe net oil and gas volume at net capex of around USD 3 billion after tax
| Asset area | Field development | Aker BP ownership |
Gross/net volume | Net capex estimate | PDO submission | Production start |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frosk | 80.0% | 10/8 mmboe | USD 0.2bn | 2021 | 2023 | |
| Alvheim | Kobra East & Gekko |
80.0% | 50/40 mmboe | USD 0.9bn | 2021 | 2023 |
| Tyrving | 61.3% | 25/15 mmboe | USD 0.4bn | 2022 | 2025 | |
| Hanz | 35.0% | 20/7 mmboe | USD 0.2bn | 2021 | 2024 | |
| Edvard Grieg & Ivar Aasen |
Symra | 50.0% | USD 1.3bn | Dec-22 | 20261) | |
| Solveig Phase II | 65.0% | 87/49 mmboe | 2026 | |||
| Alve North |
68.1% | 119/51 mmboe | USD 1.0bn | Dec-22 | 2027 | |
| Skarv | Idun North |
23.8% | 2027 | |||
| Ørn | 30.0% | 2027 | ||||
| Valhall PWP |
90.0% | USD 5.5bn | Dec-22 | 2027 | ||
| Valhall | Fenris | 77.8% | 230/187 mmboe | 2027 | ||
| Yggdrasil2) | Hugin | 87.7% | 2027 | |||
| Munin | 50.0% | 650/413 mmboe | USD 10.7bn | Dec-22 | 2027 | |
| Fulla | 47.7% | 2027 |
Our key principles for successful project execution
✓Competence and learning
- ✓Continuity
- ✓Common goals and incentives
Partnerships Standardisation Frontloading
✓ Well designs and equipment ✓Topside and subsea equipment ✓Facilitate efficient operations
- ✓Early planning and maturation
- ✓Supplier involvement
- ✓Secured yard and rig capacity
Alliances with leading suppliers – with proven track record
The cornerstone of project planning and execution
Alliances established with leading suppliers
- Covering majority of capital spend
- Subsea, Fixed Facilities, Modifications and Drilling
- One team Common goals Shared incentives
Proven track record of alliance model since 2016
- 16 subsea tie-backs
- Two fixed platforms
- More than 100 wells completed
- Significant modifications scope
Key benefits
- Access to capacity and competence
- Improved efficiency
- Drive continuous improvement
Project execution on track
Good progress in the first year since PDOs
- Key milestones achieved on schedule
- Main contracts placed and capacity secured
- Fabrication underway at multiple locations
- Sub-sea and drilling scope progressing well
- Total capex estimate in line with plans
Developments to drive growth and value creation
Planning to produce around 525 mboepd in 2028
Production outlook
mboepd
Our project portfolio
- Net resources of 770 mmboe
- The projects lift Aker BP's production by 250-300 mboepd in 2028
- Low CO2 emission intensity
- Full-cycle portfolio break even oil price of USD 35-40 per barrel1
- Average payback time of 1-2 years2
Yggdrasil
New North Sea area hub by joining forces across licences
| Gas ~40% of estimated volumes |
Aker BP (operator) |
Hugin: 87.7% Munin: 50.0% Fulla: 47.7% |
|
|---|---|---|---|
| Power supply from shore |
Munin | Partners | Equinor and PGNiG Upstream Norway |
| A new digital standard |
Unmanned production platform Hugin A Production, drilling & quarters Hugin B |
Volume estimate | 650 mmboe (gross) / 413 mmboe (net) |
| 55 wells | Normally unmanned installation | Net capex estimate (nominal) |
USD 10.7 bn |
| Significant additional volume potential |
Production start est. | 2027 |
Valhall PWP-Fenris
Unlocks new volumes and secures life-time extension on Valhall
Skarv Satellites
Subsea
Drilling
Investments in future flexibility enabling further area development
Alve N
Utsira High projects
Increased capacity utilisation at Ivar Aasen and Edvard Grieg platforms
Alvheim projects
Unlocks new volumes, reduces unit cost and secures life-time extension on Alvheim
Establish the next wave of profitable growth options
Growth through M&A and projects
Transactions + 18 organic development projects
33
Our exploration strategy
Uniquely positioned on the NCS
- 2 nd largest in Norway with over 200 licences
- Operator of ~70%
- 27 licences awarded in APA 2023 all-time high
Targeting net 250 mmboe from 2022 to 2027
- Drill 10-15 exploration wells per year
- 80% near-field 20% in new areas
New ways of working
- Technology driving efficiency and exploration success
- Data gathering and processing speed multiplied
2023 – another year of successful exploration
Significant oil discovery in the Yggdrasil area
Discovery at Frigg East
- Current volume estimate of 53-90 mmboe gross
- Increases the resource base for Yggdrasil
- Highly profitable with break-even well below \$20/bbl
Partner in several other discoveries
- Carmen, Ofelia, Norma
- Finding cost below \$1/boe
- 2/3 on the way towards 2027 target of 250 mmboe
2024 exploration program
| Licence | Prospect | Operator | Aker BP share |
Pre-drill mmboe |
Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PL102G | Trell North | Aker BP | 61% | 3 - 12 |
Drilling |
| PL1138 | Ametyst | Harbour Energy | 30% | 23 - 116 |
Drilling |
| PL956 | Ringhornet Ty | Vår Energi | 20% | 7 - 27 |
Drilling |
| PL442 | FGD/Ypsilon | Aker BP | 88% | 9 - 22 |
Q1 |
| PL1182S | Kjøttkake | DNO | 30% | 19 - 42 |
Q2 |
| PL1185 | Kvernbit | Equinor | 20% | 9 - 64 |
Q2 |
| PL203 | Alvheim Deep | Aker BP | 80% | 24 - 159 |
Q2 |
| PL261 | Storjo West | Aker BP | 70% | 4 - 32 |
Q2 |
| PL1170 | Ferdinand | Aker BP | 35% | 31 - 65 |
Q2 |
| PL1170 | Hassel | Aker BP | 35% | 27 - 47 |
Q2 |
| PL554 | Garantiana Skrustikke | Equinor | 30% | 26 - 99 |
Q2 |
| PL869 | Rumpetroll South | Aker BP | 80% | 10 - 45 |
Q3 |
| PL932 | Kaldafjell | Aker BP | 40% | 12 - 140 |
Q3 |
| PL110 | Njargasas | Aker BP | 55% | 23 - 120 |
Q4 |
| PL1131 | Elgol | Vår Energi | 20% | 27 - 180 |
Q4 |
| PL942 | Kongeørn | Aker BP | 30% | 5 - 39 |
Q4 |
Significant upside potential around existing assets
Reserves and resources
billion boe
Return maximum value to shareholders and society
2023 financials in brief
Operating cash flow 20.4 USD/share
Tax paid 11.8 USD/share
Free cash flow 3.1 USD/share Financial capacity 6.8 USD billion
Dividend 2.2 USD/share Leverage ratio 0.2
Free cash flow: Net cash flow after tax from operating activities less net cash flow from investment activities Leverage ratio: Net interest-bearing debt divided by EBITDAX last 12 months, excluding effects of IFRS16 Leasing
Q4 2023 - Sales of oil and gas
Volume sold mboepd
Realised prices USD/boe
Q4-22 Q1-23 Q2-23 Q3-23 Q4-23
Liquids Natural gas
Total income USD million
Income statement
USD million
| Q3 2023 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before impairment | Impairments | Actual | Actual | |
| Total income | 3 556 | 3 556 | 3 513 | |
| Production costs | 298 | 298 | 252 | |
| Other operating expenses | 17 | 17 | 12 | |
| EBITDAX | 3 241 | 3 241 | 3 249 | |
| Exploration expenses | 67 | 67 | 74 | |
| EBITDA | 3 174 | 3 174 | 3 174 | |
| Depreciation | 606 | 606 | 557 | |
| Impairments | 415 | 415 | - | |
| Operating profit (EBIT) | 2 569 | (415) | 2 154 | 2 618 |
| Net financial items | 15 | 15 | (53) | |
| Profit/loss before taxes | 2 583 | (415) | 2 168 | 2 565 |
| Tax (+) / Tax income (-) |
2 008 | (3) | 2 005 | 1 977 |
| Net profit / loss | 575 | (412) | 164 | 588 |
| EPS (USD) | 0.82 | (0.65) | 0.26 | 0.93 |
| Effective tax rate | 78 % | 1 % | 92 % | 77 % |
467 mboepd (450)
Oil and gas sales
\$82 per boe (84)
Net realised price
\$6.2 per boe (6.0)
Production cost
92% (77%)
Effective tax rate
Cash flow
USD million
| Q4-23 | Q3-23 | Q2-23 | Q1-23 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow before tax | 3 710 | 2 963 | 2 938 | 3 251 |
| Taxes paid | (2 207) | (862) | (2 817) | (1 569) |
| Cash flow – operations |
1 503 | 2 101 | 121 | 1 682 |
| Cash flow – investments |
(1 042) | (944) | (776) | (705) |
| Free cash flow | 461 | 1 157 | (655) | 977 |
| Net debt drawn/repaid | (0) | (2) | 488 | - |
| Dividends | (348) | (348) | (348) | (348) |
| Interest, leasing & misc. | (85) | (138) | (75) | (106) |
| Cash flow – financing |
(433) | (488) | 66 | (454) |
| Net change in cash | 28 | 669 | (589) | 523 |
| Cash at end of period | 3 388 | 3 375 | 2 689 | 3 280 |
\$0.5bn (1.2) Free cash flow (FCF)
\$0.73(1.83)
FCF per share
\$0.55 (0.55)
Dividend per share
Balance sheet
USD million
| Assets | 31.12.23 | 30.09.23 | 31.12.22 |
|---|---|---|---|
| PP&E | 17 450 | 16 123 | 15 887 |
| Goodwill | 13 143 | 13 554 | 13 935 |
| Other non-current assets |
3 314 | 3 166 | 2 984 |
| Cash and equivalent | 3 388 | 3 375 | 2 756 |
| Other current assets | 1 751 | 1 909 | 2 000 |
| Total Assets |
39 047 | 38 127 | 37 562 |
| Equity and liabilities | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Equity | 12 362 | 12 524 | 12 428 |
| Financial debt | 5 798 | 5 754 | 5 279 |
| Deferred taxes | 10 592 | 10 182 | 9 359 |
| Other long-term liabilities | 4 861 | 4 090 | 4 248 |
| Tax payable | 3 600 | 4 070 | 5 084 |
| Other current liabilities | 1 833 | 1 509 | 1 164 |
| Total Equity and liabilities |
39 047 | 38 127 | 37 562 |
\$6.8bn (\$6.8)
Total available liquidity
32% (33%)
Equity ratio
0.19 (0.19)
Leverage ratio1
1) Leverage ratio: Net interest-bearing debt divided by EBITDAX last 12 months, excluding effects of IFRS16 Leasing
Capital allocation priorities
Aker BP's financial frame – designed to drive value creation and shareholder return
Continuously optimising our capital structure
Financing transactions in 2023
USD 1,500 million in new Senior Notes issued
- USD 500 million Notes due in 2028
- USD 1,000 million Notes due in 2033
- USD ~1,000 million in existing bonds repurchased
- 2025 and 2026 maturities
USD 1,800 million Forward Start Bank Facility signed
- Active from 2026, maturing in 2028, options to extend to 2030
- Opportunity to increase up to USD 2,500 million
Bond maturities USD/EUR billion
Maintaining financial flexibility
Net interest-bearing debt Excl. leases, USD billion
3.4 3.1 2.6 2.2 1.6 0.7 3.7 2.2 2.5 2.0 3.1 2.4 2.4 Q4-20 Q2-21 Q4-21 Q2-22 Q4-22 Q2-23 Q4-23 Leverage ratio1 Targeting below 1.5 over time
Q4-20 Q2-21 Q4-21 Q2-22 Q4-22 Q2-23 Q4-23
Liquidity available2 USD billion
Cash and cash equivalents Undrawn bank facilities
Investment grade credit ratings
1) Leverage ratio: Net interest-bearing debt divided by EBITDAX last 12 months, excluding effects of IFRS16 Leasing 2) Liquidity available: undrawn bank facilities and cash and cash equivalents BBB Baa2 BBB
Grow production with robust high return projects
Projects to lift Aker BP's production by 250-300 mboepd in 2028
Production outlook
mboepd
Robust and profitable project portfolio
\$35-40/bbl
Project portfolio break-even oil price1
~25%
Project portfolio IRR at \$65/bbl oil price
1-2 years
Project portfolio payback at \$65/bbl oil price
Investing in robust and profitable projects
In an investment-friendly tax system
Aker BP est. capex before and after tax USD billion
- Total capex estimate 2023-2028 in line with plans presented one year ago
- Minor adjustments to capex phasing between years
- ~85% of the planned capex is related to projects subject to the temporary tax system with 86.9% tax deduction
- The rest is subject to ordinary tax system with 78% tax deduction
The tax system is highly supportive for investments
In the investment phase, taxes paid are significantly lower than tax expense in the P&L
Illustrative1 tax calculations Aker BP 2023 - 2028 USD billion
- Relatively low tax payments in periods with high investments
- Especially prominent in low oil price scenarios
- An illustrative tax calculation example
- Tax calculation model employed1 (available at www.akerbp.com/investor)
▪ Note: this is for illustrative purposes only and is not company guiding
Near-term tax payments
Sensitivity for H2-2024
USD million
2 500
Tax instalments for fiscal year 2023
- Tax for the year is paid in six bimonthly instalments with six months delay
- Q1-24 and Q2-24 instalments now fixed based on full-year 2023 performance
Assumptions for H2-24 sensitivity analysis
- Gas prices assumed at USD 11 per mmbtu
- USDNOK rate assumed at 10.0
- Three oil price scenarios illustrated (average for 2024)
Strong and resilient cash flow as basis for dividend growth
Aker BP value creation plan 2023-2028 USD billion, accumulated
Dividends USD per share
- Low-cost production gives resilient dividend capacity
- Distributions shall reflect the capacity through the cycle
- 9% dividend growth in 2024
- Ambition to grow dividend by minimum 5% per year
2024 guidance
| 2023 actuals |
2024 guidance |
|
|---|---|---|
| Production (mboped) | 457 | 410-440 |
| Opex (USD/boe) | 6.2 | ~7.0 |
| Capex (USDbn) | 3.3 | ~5.0 |
| Expex (USDbn) |
0.36 | ~0.5 |
| Abex (USDbn) |
0.16 | ~0.25 |
Summary – Executing on our strategic priorities
Return maximum value to shareholders and society
www.akerbp.com