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Aker BP — Investor Presentation 2022
Feb 10, 2022
3528_rns_2022-02-10_8544a65a-3e37-4964-90d5-767341a9aa86.pdf
Investor Presentation
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Fourth Quarter 2021
10 February 2022
Disclaimer
- This Document includes and is based, inter alia, on forward-looking information and statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ.
- These statements and this Document are based on current expectations, estimates and projections about global economic conditions, the economic conditions of the regions and industries that are major markets for Aker BP ASA's lines of business.
- These expectations, estimates and projections are generally identifiable by statements containing words such as "expects", "believes", "estimates" or similar expressions.
- Important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expectations include, among others, economic and market conditions in the geographic areas and industries that are or will be major markets for Aker BP ASA's businesses, oil prices, market acceptance of new products and services, changes in governmental regulations, interest rates, fluctuations in currency exchange rates and such other factors as may be discussed from time to time in the Document.
- Although Aker BP ASA believes that its expectations and the Document are based upon reasonable assumptions, it can give no assurance that those expectations will be achieved or that the actual results will be as set out in the Document.
- Aker BP ASA is making no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of the Document, and neither Aker BP ASA nor any of its directors, officers or employees will have any liability to you or any other persons resulting from your use.
2021 in review
Strong results driven by performance and high prices
- Stable operational performance
- Higher oil and gas prices
- Record cash flow and financial strength
Organic growth on track
- Projects on time and cost three PDOs submitted
- Concept selected for NOAKA and Valhall NCP/King Lear
- Stepping up our digital transformation
Acquiring Lundin Energy's oil and gas activities
- Subject to AGM and regulatory approvals
- Closing targeted around mid-2022
Lundin transaction summary
Key terms and conditions
- Aker BP acquires Lundin Energy's oil and gas activities
- Consideration per LUNE share: ~0.95 AKRBP shares and USD ~7.76
- Lundin Energy retains renewable energy activities and remains listed
- Subject to approval by AGMs and authorities
- Supported by main shareholders Aker, bp and Nemesia1)
Corporate structure
- Headquartered at Fornebu and listed on Euronext Oslo Børs
- Aker BP's CEO to lead the combined company
- Ashley Heppenstall to be elected as new member of the Aker BP Board
Timeline
21 Dec Merger announced Early March Merger plan published
Mar/Apr Shareholder meetings
30 June Closing
Post-transaction ownership structure
Equity in combined entity: 57% Aker BP and 43% Lundin Energy
1) Nemesia is an investment company wholly owned by a Lundin family trust
Key performance indicators 2021
SAFETY FIRST
Total recordable injury frequency (TRIF) PRODUCTION VOLUME
1.9 209.4 \$9.2 85% 4.8kg
thousand barrels of oil equivalents per day PRODUCTION COST
per boe produced PRODUCTION EFFICIENCY
Aker BP operated assets, gross
EMISSIONS INTENSITY
CO2 emissions per boe
Production performance
Oil and gas production mboepd
2021 production vs guidance mboepd
Delivering decarbonisation
Strong progress in 2021
Scope 1 – reduced emissions by ~23,000 tonnes CO2e
- Energy efficiency improvements through upgraded equipment and digital-enabled process optimisation
- Rerouting of gas from cold vent reduces methane emissions by ~7,000 tonnes CO2e
Scope 2 – towards zero with electrification
Ivar Aasen to receive power from shore in 2022
Scope 3 – marine supply chain emissions reduced by 6%
- Fleet optimization and collaboration
- Converting supply vessels to hybrid exploring fuel cells
Emissions intensity kg CO2/boe
Executing projects according to plans
Three PDOs submitted in 2021
Ærfugl Phase II
Subsea tieback to Skarv FPSO
First oil in Q4 2021
Kobra East & Gekko
- PDO submitted Q2 2021 First oil scheduled in Q1 2024
- 51 mmboe gross reserves
Hod
- Wellhead platform connected to Valhall
- First oil expected in H1 2022
Frosk
- PDO submitted Q3 2021
- First oil scheduled in Q1 2023
- 10 mmboe gross reserves
Johan Sverdrup
- Expanding capacity to 755,000 bbl/day
- First oil expected in Q4 2022
Hanz
- PDO submitted Q4 2021
- First oil scheduled in 2024
- 20 mmboe gross reserves
Building the E&P company of the future
Disciplined approach to M&A
Logos represents acquisitions, mergers and asset transactions by Aker BP in Norway in the respective year (M&A: mergers & acquisitions) *Lundin transaction pending approval from both companies' shareholders and relevant authorities
Our digital vision
Fully transform core end-to-end processes
Field development
Well construction & intervention
Subsurface interpretation & modelling
Production optimisation and energy efficiency
Maintenance
Alliances – the cornerstone of our execution model
Leading the way on low carbon
Emissions intensity 2020
kg CO2/boe, equity share
Aker BP's scope 1 emissions targets:
50% reduction by 2030
in gross operated emissions through electrification, energy efficiency and portfolio
~100% reduction by 2050
in gross emissions with all assets electrified
Evaluating decarbonisation strategy to achieve Net zero by 2030
Reserves and resources
Resources of 1.8 billion boe1)
Break-even for projects targeted for FID by 2022
1) 2P reserves + 2C resources
2) Break-even oil price using 10% discount rate 14
NOAKA development concept selected
~600 mmboe resources (gross)
USD ~10 bn capex (gross, real)
~\$30/bbl break-even
2027 first oil
Aker BP interest
NOA: 87.7% Fulla: 47.7% Krafla: 50%
Valhall NCP/King Lear development concept selected
200 mmboe resources (gross)
USD 4-5 bn capex (gross, real)
\$25-30/bbl break-even
Aker BP interest
Valhall: 90% King Lear: 77.8%
On track to sanction 700 mmboe by end-2022
Production outlook
Preliminary production profile mboepd
production growth to 2028
<30/bbl
full-cycle break even on all projects1)
~80% of investments covered by
temporary tax scheme
Our exploration strategy
An active explorer in an attractive basin
Maximize value of existing infrastructure
80 %
Explore for new hub potential 20 %
Smart integration of data and technology
Licences awarded in APA 2021 announced 18 January 2022
2022 exploration program
Targeting ~250 mmboe net unrisked
| Licences | Prospect | Operator | Aker BP share |
Pre-drill mmboe |
Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PL685 | Laushornet | Aker BP | 40% | 17 - 147 |
|
| PL873 | Grefsenkollen & Øst Frigg |
Aker BP | 40% | 17 - 40 |
Drilling |
| PL1085 | Overly | Aker BP | 55% | 38 - 92 |
|
| PL261 | Storjo East |
Aker BP | 70% | 16 - 45 |
|
| PL941 | Newt | Aker BP | 80% | 13 - 33 |
|
| PL941 | BarlindåsenCW | Aker BP | 80% | 18 - 86 |
|
| PL867 | Gjegnalunden | Aker BP | 80% | 3 - 124 |
|
| PL1141 | Styggehøe | Aker BP | 70% | 10 - 41 |
|
| PL554 | Angulata | Equinor | 30% | 8 - 64 |
|
| PL782S | Busta (Lamba) |
CoP | 20% | 8 - 114 |
|
| PL1064 | Staurheia/Peder | CoP | 20% | 23 - 76 |
|
| PL265 | P-Graben (Sverdrup) | Equinor | 20% | 5 - 19 |
|
| PL943 | Uer | Equinor | 10% | 7 - 93 |
Financial review
Financial highlights
Fourth quarter and full year 2021
Q4 production
Liquids: 167.3 mboepd Gas: 39.7 mboepd
2021 cash flow metrics
CFFO: USD 4.3 billion FCF: USD 2.6 billion
Q4 realised commodity prices
Liquids: 78.8 USD/boe Gas: 169.5 USD/boe
Key credit metrics
Net debt: USD 1.7 billion2) Leverage ratio: 0.33x3)
2021 costs and investments
Opex: 9.2 USD/boe1) Capex: USD 1.4 billion
Shareholder distribution
2021: 1.3537 per share 2022: 1.9 per share
2) Including lease debt of USD 0.1 billion
3) Net interest-bearing debt divided by 2021 EBITDAX, excluding IFRS 16 Leasing
2021 financial review
Total spend 2021
USD billion
Cost control remains a top priority in Aker BP
• Both in operations and project development
Total 2021 spend below guidance
• Higher drilling efficiency and phasing
Production expenses impacted by high power costs
Production cost
Production cost per unit produced USD per boe
2021 actual vs guidance USD per boe
Oil and gas sales
Volumes sold mmboe
Total income USD million
Realised prices USD/boe
Q4-2021 Liquids \$78.8 Natural gas \$169.5 2021 Liquids \$69.2 Natural gas \$88.5
Oil lifted and realised prices
2021 crude oil liftings
mmbbl
2021 time effect and realised differentials
Gas sales
18% of total production in 2021
- Skarv 49%
- Alvheim area 22%
- Valhall 17%
Majority of volumes linked to spot (TTF/NBP)
Some volumes linked to oil price
Gas volumes to increase in the future
- Skarv satellites from 2025
- NOAKA and King Lear from 2027
Gas volumes and realised prices 2021
Income statement
Fourth quarter 2021
| USD million | Q4 2021 | Q3 2021 | Change | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total income | 1 849 | 1 563 | +18% | 1 |
| Production costs | 202 | 209 | ||
| Other operating expenses | 6 | 7 | ||
| EBITDAX | 1 641 | 1 347 | +22% | |
| Exploration expenses | 83 | 97 | -15% | 2 |
| EBITDA | 1 559 | 1 250 | +25% | |
| Depreciation | 219 | 247 | 3 | |
| Impairments | 79 | 154 | 4 | |
| Operating profit (EBIT) | 1 260 | 849 | +48% | |
| Net financial items | (43) | (47) | ||
| Profit/loss before taxes | 1 218 | 802 | +52% | |
| Tax (+) / Tax income (-) |
854 | 596 | ||
| Net profit / loss | 364 | 206 | +77% | |
| EPS (USD) | 1.01 | 0.57 |
-
- Increased due to higher prices, in particular on gas
-
- Reduced field evaluation expenses as Krafla passed DG2
-
- Lower rate due to lifetime extension on Alvheim
-
- Impairment of Ula and Liatårnet partly offset by reversal on Trell & Trine
Cash flow
Fourth quarter 2021
USD million
1) Including payments on lease debt which are classified as financing activities in the statement of cash flow
2) Net cash flow from operating activities and investment activities including payments on lease debt
3) Includes interest paid, fees related to RCF, and FX effect on cash held
2021
FCF per share
\$6.9
Dividend per share
\$1.4
Q4-2021
FCF per share
\$2.0
Dividend per share
\$0.4
29
Tax payments
USD million
| For fiscal year 2020 | For fiscal year 2021 | Sensitivity for fiscal year 2022 | 1) | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ~800 | \$100 | ||||||||||
| 2) | \$100 | ||||||||||
| ~400 2) |
\$100 | \$80 | \$100 | \$80 | |||||||
| \$80 | \$80 | ||||||||||
| 98 | 160 | \$60 | \$60 | \$60 | \$60 | ||||||
| (109) | (11) | (23) | |||||||||
| (201) | |||||||||||
| Q 3-2 0 |
Q 4-2 0 |
Q 1-2 1 |
Q 2-2 1 |
Q 3-2 1 |
Q 4-2 1 |
Q 1-2 2 |
Q 2-2 2 |
Q 3-2 2 |
Q 4-2 2 |
Q 1-2 3 |
Q 2-2 3 |
1) Estimated current tax on income for fiscal year 2022 for Aker BP at various oil price scenarios, assuming USDNOK 8.5. Gas price assumptions are linked to oil prices where \$1/bbl equals \$0.1/mmbtu. Excluding potential payments related to uncertain tax cases.
2) Share of tax payment in H1 2022 related to higher oil and gas prices in H2 2021 than anticipated when the tax instalments were decided in June 2021
Statement of financial position
USD million
| Assets | 31.12.21 | 30.09.21 | 31.12.20 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goodwill | 1 647 | 1 647 | 1 647 |
| Other intangible assets |
1 664 | 1 779 | 2 043 |
| Property, plant and equipment |
7 976 | 7 667 | 7 266 |
| Right-of-use asset | 94 | 105 | 133 |
| Receivables and other assets | 1 117 | 963 | 793 |
| Cash and cash equivalents |
1 971 | 1 421 | 538 |
| Total Assets |
14 470 | 13 582 | 12 420 |
| Equity and liabilities | 31.12.21 | 30.09.21 | 31.12.20 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Equity | 2 342 | 2 128 | 1 987 |
| Other provisions for liabilities incl. P&A (long) |
2 659 | 2 639 | 2 650 |
| Deferred tax |
3 323 | 3 142 | 2 642 |
| Bonds and bank debt | 3 577 | 3 595 | 3 969 |
| Lease debt | 136 | 158 | 216 |
| Other current liabilities incl. P&A | 936 | 930 | 792 |
| Tax payable | 1 497 | 990 | 163 |
| Total Equity and liabilities |
14 470 | 13 582 | 12 420 |
Capital allocation priorities
Growing capital distribution in line with value creation Aker BP investment plan 2022-2028
Invest in profitable growth
1) BE: Break-even oil price using 10% discount rate
Capital allocation priority #1: Financial capacity
Net interest-bearing debt Excl. leases, USD billion
4.5 4.4 4.4 4.8 0.5 0.4 1.0 1.4 2.0 Q4-20 Q1-21 Q2-21 Q3-21 Q4-21
2)
Liquidity available
USD billion
5.4
Cash and cash equivalents
500 500
BBB- (positive outlook)
Baa3 (review for upgrade)
1) Leverage ratio: Net interest-bearing debt divided by EBITDAX last 12 months, excluding effects of IFRS16 Leasing
2) Liquidity available: Undrawn bank facilities and Cash and cash equivalents
Bond maturities USD million
1 000
750
4.000 % USD
865
Capital allocation priority #2: Invest in profitable growth
Investment plan 2022-2028 USD billion
Investing in projects with break-even below 30 \$/bbl in a supportive fiscal regime providing >70% tax deductions in year 1
mboepd 210- 220 0 100 200 300 400 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 Sanctioned (2P) Non-sanctioned (2C) NOAKA (2C)
Generating value accretive growth with high returns and short payback time across price scenarios
Preliminary production profile
Capital allocation priority #2: Invest in profitable growth
Break even oil price hurdle of USD 30 per barrel for sanctioning new projects (NPV10)
Break-even for projects targeted for FID by 2022 Preliminary figures, USD/boe
IRR for projects targeted for FID by 2022
Preliminary figures
Capital allocation priority #3: Return value creation
Aker BP dividends USD per share
USD 1.9/share
paid quarterly
40%
dividend growth from 2021
5%
minimum annual dividend growth at oil prices above USD 40/bbl
Guidance for 2022
| 2021 CMU |
2021 Actuals |
2022 Guidance |
|
|---|---|---|---|
| Production (mboped) | 210-220 | 209.4 | 210-220 |
| Opex (USD/boe) | 8.5-9.0 | 9.2 | ~10 |
| Capex (USDbn) | ~1.6 | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| E&A (USDbn) | 0.4-0.5 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Decom (USDbn) | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Key project milestones
Hod First oil H1 2022
Johan Sverdrup First oil Q4 2022
NOAKA FID in late 2022
Valhall NCP & King Lear FID in late 2022
Skarv Satellites DG2 in Q1 2022, FID in late 2022
Trell & Trine FID in mid-2022
Concluding remarks
Building the E&P company of the future
- Pure play oil and gas company
- Quality assets with low cost and low emissions
- Driving improvement through the value chain
- Profitable growth from unique resource base
- Financial strength and growing dividends
www.akerbp.com