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Aker BP — Investor Presentation 2022
Oct 26, 2022
3528_rns_2022-10-26_033cbbea-be8c-45c3-9e44-c1ffb17b9672.pdf
Investor Presentation
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Third quarter 2022
26 October 2022
Third quarter 2022
Today's speakers
Karl Johnny Hersvik CEO
David Tønne CFO
Disclaimer
This Document includes and is based, inter alia, on forward-looking information and statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ.
These statements and this Document are based on current expectations, estimates and projections about global economic conditions, the economic conditions of the regions and industries that are major markets for Aker BP ASA's lines of business.
These expectations, estimates and projections are generally identifiable by statements containing words such as "expects", "believes", "estimates" or similar expressions.
Important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expectations include, among others, economic and market conditions in the geographic areas and industries that are or will be major markets for Aker BP ASA's businesses, oil prices, market acceptance of new products and services, changes in governmental regulations, interest rates, fluctuations in currency exchange rates and such other factors as may be discussed from time to time in the Document.
Although Aker BP ASA believes that its expectations and the Document are based upon reasonable assumptions, it can give no assurance that those expectations will be achieved or that the actual results will be as set out in the Document.
Aker BP ASA is making no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of the Document, and neither Aker BP ASA nor any of its directors, officers or employees will have any liability to you or any other persons resulting from your use.
The E&P company of the future
Created by combining two leading independents
World-class assets with high efficiency and low cost
- Low emissions and clear pathway to net zero
- Driving transformation through digital and alliances
- Profitable growth from unique resource base
- Financial strength & growing dividends
Highlights
Third quarter 2022
Excellent operational performance
- Higher production efficiency
- Improved safety and lower CO 2 intensity
- Organisational integration completed 1 Oct
Progressing the growth portfolio
- Johan Sverdrup phase 2 on track for first oil in Q4
- Preparing for investment decisions on PDO portfolio
- New discoveries in the Skarv area
Strong financial results
- Record-high FCF of USD 1.9 billion
- Deleveraging continues net debt USD 2.2 billion
- Quarterly dividend USD 0.525 per share
Photo from the installation of gas lift pipeline at Kobra East Gekko in July 2022
Safety – priority number one
Injury frequency (TRIF) 1)
1) Total recordable injuries per million exp. hours, rolling 12 months average
Production review
Oil and gas production
mboepd
Production efficiency Capacity utilisation
162
90% 87% 88% 80% 96% Q3-21 Q4-21 Q1-22 Q2-22 Q3-22
6
Reducing the maintenance backlog
An example of how Aker BP works to improve production efficiency
Maintenance hours overdue 1)
- Systematic improvement work targeting maintenance backlog
- Reduced backlog reduces risk of unplanned downtime
- Reduction by over 40% in total maintenance hours overdue since first quarter 2021
1) Includes all Aker BP operated assets, excluding Edvard Grieg.
A leader in low-emissions oil and gas production
CO2 emissions intensity further reduced
Kg CO2 per boe produced
Emission intensity 12m avg.
Plan to reach net zero across operations by 2030 1)
Johan Sverdrup Phase 2
First oil expected in December
Q4 2022 755 <\$2 <1 kg 31.6
First oil Production
Phase 2 mboepd in total USD/boe1) CO2/boe Percent
Industry-leading low production cost
Industry-leading low carbon emissions
Aker BP working interest
1) Full field production cost/boe with normalised power cost Photo © Equinor
9
Project portfolio progressing according to plan
Alvheim
- Frosk on track for first oil in H1 2023
- Kobra East Gekko in execution first oil 2024
- Trell & Trine PDO submitted first oil 2025
Skarv
- PDO for Skarv Satellites in December
- Laying foundations for next wave of tie-backs with new discoveries and farm-ins
Edvard Grieg & Ivar Aasen
- Hanz in execution first oil 2024
- PDO for Utsira High Projects in December (Lille Prinsen, Rolvsnes and Solveig)
Valhall PWP / Fenris
- Renamed from Valhall NCP / King Lear
- PDO in December
- First oil 2027
NOAKA
- PDO in December
- Operatorship for Krafla to be transferred to Aker BP following PDO submission
Wisting
The operator Equinor is preparing for final investment decision and PDO in December
PDO projects
Process towards final investment decisions
Technical work completed
- All FEEDs finalised in Q3
- Readiness reviews ongoing
Economic evaluations ongoing
- Price risk on input factors
- Assess impact of proposed tax change
Final investment decisions in December
- Project economics and risks
- Supply chain capacity
- Corporate priorities
Status and plan for Aker BP-operated PDO projects
2022 exploration program
Discoveries adding growth opportunities
Preliminary estimates of YTD discoveries1)
2 4 38 19 3 66 Øst Frigg Overly Storjo East Newt Ophelia Total mmboe (Aker BP net share)
Remaining exploration program 2022
| Licences | Prospect | Operator | Aker BP share |
Pre-drill P90-P10 |
Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PL261 | Storjo East | Aker BP | 70% | 14 - 46 |
30-80 mmboe |
| PL782S | Busta (Lamba) |
CoP | 20% | 8 - 114 |
Dry |
| PL1104 | Poseidon | Equinor | 40% | 50 - 300 |
Dry |
| PL941 | Newt | Aker BP | 80% | 13 - 33 |
11-36 mmboe |
| PL941 | Barlindåsen | Aker BP | 80% | 18 - 86 |
Dry |
| PL929 | Ophelia | Neptune | 10% | 10 - 40 |
16-39 mmboe |
| PL943 | Uer | Equinor | 10% | 7 - 93 |
Dry |
| PL867 | Gjegnalunden | Aker BP | 80% | 3 - 124 |
Q4 |
| PL1141 | Styggehøe | Aker BP | 70% | 10 - 41 |
Q4 |
| PL554 | Angulata | Equinor | 30% | 8 - 64 |
Q4 |
| PL265 | P-Graben (Sverdrup) | Equinor | 20% | 5 - 19 |
Q4 |
| PL229G | Lupa | Vår | 50% | 24 - 143 |
Q4 |
Financial review
Production and sales of oil and gas
Total income
Liquids Natural gas Other
Liquids Natural gas Over/underlift
Record-high prices for natural gas
Capital spend
Capex
- Q3 first time incl. activities acquired from Lundin
- Spend below budget due to phasing and weak NOK
- Ramp up in Q4 with FID on several projects
Expex
- 6 wells drilled in the quarter
- Spending in accordance with plan
- 5 wells remaining in 2022
Abex
- Limited activity in the quarter
- Spending in accordance with plan
Production cost
Lower unit cost in Q3 due to changed production mix and higher production efficiency
Production cost USD/boe
Income statement
Third quarter 2022
| USD million | Q3 2022 | Q2 2022 | Change | Comment | Comments |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total income | 4 866 | 2 026 | 2 840 | 1 | |
| Production costs | 236 | 190 | 46 | ||
| Other operating expenses | 9 | 20 | (11) | ||
| EBITDAX | 4 621 | 1 816 | 2 805 | ||
| Exploration expenses | 85 | 67 | 18 | ||
| EBITDA | 4 536 | 1 749 | 2 787 | ||
| Depreciation | 522 | 199 | 323 | 2 | |
| Impairments | 55 | 422 | (367) | 3 | |
| Operating profit (EBIT) | 3 959 | 1 128 | 2 831 | ||
| Net financial items | (177) | (62) | (116) | 4 | |
| Profit/loss before taxes | 3 782 | 1 066 | 2 716 | ||
| Tax (+) / Tax income (-) |
2 998 | 878 | 2 120 | ||
| Net profit / loss | 783 | 188 | 596 | ||
| EPS (USD) | 1.24 | 0.52 |
-
- Gas ~34% and liquids ~65% in Q3
-
- Corresponds to USD 13.8/boe (12.1 in Q2)
-
- Related to Ula, driven by changes in profiles and decrease in prices
-
- Mainly currency effects driving increase
In addition, other comprehensive income (OCI) includes a negative forex translation effect of USD 1 013 million
Cash flow
Third quarter 2022
USD million
1) Net cash flow from operating activities and investment activities
- 2) Includes interest and fees paid, payments of lease debt, and purchase of treasury shares
- 3) Changes in inventories, trade creditors and receivables & Changes in other balance sheet items
FCF per share \$2.9 Dividend per share \$0.53 FCF per share Dividend per share \$0.48
Q3-2022
\$2.2
Q2-2022
19
Statement of financial position
| Assets | 30.09.22 | 30.06.22 |
|---|---|---|
| PP&E | 14 865 | 15 988 |
| Goodwill | 13 193 | 14 246 |
| Other non-current assets |
3 057 | 3 181 |
| Cash and equivalent | 3 042 | 2 154 |
| Other current assets | 2 015 | 1 581 |
| Total Assets |
36 172 | 37 149 |
| Equity and liabilities | 30.09.22 | 30.06.22 |
|---|---|---|
| Equity | 11 483 | 12 061 |
| Financial Debt | 5 198 | 5 834 |
| Other long-term liabilities | 12 667 | 13 456 |
| Tax payable | 5 419 | 4 253 |
| Other current liabilities | 1 406 | 1 545 |
| Total Equity and liabilities |
36 172 | 37 149 |
Comments
- The legal entities acquired in the Lundin transaction include companies with other functional currencies than USD (mainly NOK)
- The purchase price allocation carried out as of 30 June 2022 was allocated to the respective currencies, meaning that the statement of financial position is fixed in for example NOK and that the equivalent dollar amount will vary depending on the currency rate
- The strengthening of USD against NOK in Q3 generally therefore resulted in decreased balance sheet items
- 20 This accounting technicality will remain until the liquidation of ABP Norway AS (formerly Lundin Energy Norway AS), now expected to occur around year-end
Superior financial flexibility
Net interest-bearing debt
2)
Cash and cash equivalents
Investment grade credit ratings
500 1 500 750 1 000 1 750 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 Bond maturities USD/EUR million USD EUR
BBB Baa2 BBB
2) Liquidity available: Undrawn bank facilities and Cash and cash equivalents
Tax guidance
Tax payments - Sensitivity for fiscal year 2022 USD million
Tax instalments for fiscal year 2022 set in June
- Q3 and Q4-22 instalments fixed
- Based on forecast full-year 2022 performance for combined company
- Opportunity to adjust in Oct-22 and Jan-23
Adjustment in October 2022
- Full-year tax estimate increased due to high prices
- Voluntary additional payment of NOK 6 bn in October
- Avoiding interest expenses
Sensitivity for payments in H1-23
- Brent price assumptions given for Q4 2022
- Gas prices assumed fixed at ~\$30/mmbtu
- USDNOK 10.0
Proposed change to temporary tax rules
Government proposal to reduce uplift from 17.69% to 12.4% for investments made under temporary tax rules
New ordinary tax system
Temporary rules - 17.69% uplift
Proposed change - 12.4% uplift
Operational guidance for second half 2022
Aker BP 195 Lundin 181 376 410-435 410-420 H1 actual Previous H2 guidance Updated H2 guidance Production mboepd
Production cost USD/boe
Capital allocation priorities stand firm
Aker BP's financial frame – designed to drive value creation and shareholder return
Concluding remarks
Concluding remarks
- Strong financial performance driven by high operational efficiency and high oil and gas prices
- Projects on track production start for Johan Sverdrup phase 2 expected in December
- Preparing for final investment decisions for major new field development projects by year-end
www.akerbp.com