AI assistant
Aker BP — Investor Presentation 2020
Feb 11, 2020
3528_rns_2020-02-11_eb1e33dc-1f49-4934-b13d-985c3f915e47.pdf
Investor Presentation
Open in viewerOpens in your device viewer
Capital Markets Update
Aker BP ASA
11 February 2020
Disclaimer
This Document includes and is based, inter alia, on forward-looking information and statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ. These statements and this Document are based on current expectations, estimates and projections about global economic conditions, the economic conditions of the regions and industries that are major markets for Aker BP ASA's lines of business. These expectations, estimates and projections are generally identifiable by statements containing words such as "expects", "believes", "estimates" or similar expressions. Important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expectations include, among others, economic and market conditions in the geographic areas and industries that are or will be major markets for Aker BP ASA's businesses, oil prices, market acceptance of new products and services, changes in governmental regulations, interest rates, fluctuations in currency exchange rates and such other factors as may be discussed from time to time in the Document. Although Aker BP ASA believes that its expectations and the Document are based upon reasonable assumptions, it can give no assurance that those expectations will be achieved or that the actual results will be as set out in the Document. Aker BP ASA is making no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of the Document, and neither Aker BP ASA nor any of its directors, officers or employees will have any liability to you or any other persons resulting from your use.
Today's programme AKER BP ASA - CAPITAL MARKETS UPDATE 2020
Karl Johnny Hersvik CEO
High efficiency, profitable growth and value creation
Kjetel Digre SVP Operations & Asset Development
Maximizing value of our assets
Evy Glørstad SVP Exploration & Asset Initiation
Creating value through exploration
David Tønne CFO
Maximizing returns through the cycle
All speakers
Q&A session
| 10:00 | Break | 11:30 | 12:15 – 12:45 |
|---|---|---|---|
High efficiency, profitable growth and value creation
Capital Markets Update
11 February 2020
The challenge
The need for energy to support rising prosperity
The need for CO2 emissions to fall dramatically
Affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all
World population will continue to increase…
… and human prosperity is closely linked to energy consumption
Energy-related CO2 emissions must come down to reach the Paris goals
1) Source: UN's World Population Prospects 2019 2) Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2019. The Sustainable Development Scenario, according to the IEA, identifies a pathway consistent with key energy-related sustainable development goals for emissions, access and air quality (e.g. the Paris Agreement)
Oil demand varies significantly across energy scenarios
Global petroleum liquids demand (mmboepd)
Investments in oil and gas essential part of the energy transition
Oil and gas a large share of the energy mix
Upstream investments needed to meet the demand
Average annual upstream oil and gas investment estimates (USD bill. 2018)
The future requires more efficient production of oil and gas
Our contribution as a pure play oil & gas company
Produce efficiently to return high value from oil & gas resources to our stakeholders
Return value Reduce emissions Share
Reduce emissions from our operations focusing on the total footprint
Contribute with data, know-how and technology to other industries
Creating the leading independent offshore E&P company
Total resources1 (billion boe)
Net production2 (mboepd)
205-220
1.84
Production cost4 (USD/boe)
<5
CO2 emissions3 (kg/boe)
Annual shareholder return since 20165
51%
~10
Dividend6 (USD mill.)
850
1) Sum of oil and gas 2P reserves and 2C resources per year-end 2019 2) Production target 2020 3) CO2 Kg/boe target 4) Cost target 2020 5) Bloomberg TSR from January 2016 6) Plan for dividend payment 2020
A journey of high growth and improved efficiency
>205*
Safe and efficient operations
- Health, safety, security and environment is always the number one priority in Aker BP
- Improvement agenda enabler for improved safety, reliability and more efficient operations
- Aker BP dedicated to significantly reduce our environmental footprint
Photo: Aker BP office
AKER BP STRATEGY Our strategy for value creation
EXECUTE Achievements in 2019 support our strategic development
Strong organic growth
+70 000 boepd
in 2020 from three projects
Setting drilling records!
- First dual drilling operation
First offshore single-trip multi-frac well stimulation
EXECUTE Reaching our targets for 2019
IMPROVE Aker BP's improvement pillars driving efficiency
IMPROVE The alliances are the cornerstones of our improvements
One team – common goals – shared incentives
IMPROVE Tech is easy - implementation is hard
GROW Profitable organic and inorganic growth
GROW Counter-cyclical and value-driven approach to M&A
Logos represents acquisitions, mergers and asset transactions by Aker BP in Norway in the respective year. (M&A: mergers & acquisitions) 21
GROW Targeting new opportunities
CRITERIA FOR M&A IN AKER BP
TARGETING SUPERIOR VALUE CREATION
TARGETING SUPERIOR VALUE CREATION Unique resource base – a strong foundation for organic growth
TARGETING SUPERIOR VALUE CREATION High and profitable growth from existing portfolio
Production ambition (mboepd)
500
TARGETING SUPERIOR VALUE CREATION Returning value creation to shareholders
Dividends, USD million
- Strong cash flow from existing portfolio
- Profitable growth from project pipeline
- Strong balance sheet
HIGH EFFICIENCY
PROFITABLE GROWTH
VALUE CREATION
Maximizing the value of our assets
Capital Markets Update 2020
Kjetel Digre SVP Operations & Asset Development
MAXIMIZING THE VALUE OF OUR ASSETS Key operational priorities
MAXIMIZING THE VALUE OF OUR ASSETS Driving operational excellence
Using the improvement toolbox… …to build a leading operating model
MAXIMIZING THE VALUE OF OUR ASSETS Driving down cost – targeting below USD 7 per barrel
Production cost (USD/boe)
MAXIMIZING THE VALUE OF OUR ASSETS A large and profitable opportunity set for growth
Large resource base with highly attractive economics…
Break-even for non-sanctioned projects (USD/boe)1) 2C contingent resources
Production ambition non-sanctioned projects
… yields increased production
Mboepd
NOAKA 34% Valhall area 25% Ula area 18% Alvheim area 9% Skarv 9% Other 6% 931 mmboe ~75% liquids
Ærfugl project
300
MILLION BOE
ÆRFUGL BREAK-EVEN PRICE
\$15
Substantial improvements through alliances
Accelerated production
Start-up in first half of 2020
SKARV Increased volumes, better efficiency and lower cost
Increased 2P reserves at Skarv
Reserves addition of 85% last three years (mmboe, net)
Improved production efficiency
Tremendous improvment on Skarv adds volume and value
Reduced production cost
USD per barrel
2019 CO2 EMISSION REDUCTIONS IN PRACTICE Optimization of energy use and logistics at Skarv
ANNUAL CO2 REDUCTIONS OF ABOVE 25 000 TONNES
Reduced export pressure and reduced energy use in the gas cleaning process 1 2
Effects:
- Reduced emissions and increased gas sales (scope 1 emissions)
- Annual CO2 emissions 22 000 tonnes lower and NOK 36 million in annual savings
Rescheduling in collaboration with other operators in the area
Effects:
- Reduced fuel consumption and emissions (scope 3 emissions)
- Annual CO2 emissions 3 300 tonnes lower and NOK 2.4 million in annual savings
37
SKARV Priorities and outlook
Skarv production outlook1) (net mboepd)
Alvheim (PL203) - 65%, Volund (PL150) - 65%, Vilje (PL036 D) - 46.9%, Bøyla/Frosk (PL340) - 65%, Skogul (PL460) - 65% 39
The Aker BP blueprint for area developments ALVHEIM – A GREAT SUCCESS STORY
ALVHEIM AREA Priorities and outlook
Alvheim production outlook1) (net mboepd)
Valhall Flank West project
80 MILLION BOE
VALHALL FLANK WEST BREAK-EVEN PRICE
A new standard for flank developments
Alliance strategy vital for project success
Excellent safety performance
VALHALL AREA First successful offshore "Single-Trip Multi-Frac" campaign
Key technology to enable increased recovery
- Applied at Valhall with success
- An alliance delivery
- Part of the Well Intervention and Stimulation alliance with Stimwell Services and Schlumberger
- Benefits
- Less time spent per well
- Reduced cost
- Gets the well earlier on stream
- Key enabling technology for tight oil reservoirs both at Valhall and elsewhere
- Helping unlock the next billion barrels at Valhall
VALHALL AREA Priorities and outlook
Valhall production outlook1) (net mboepd)
45
ULA AREA Priorities and outlook
Ula production outlook1) (net mboepd)
15
IVAR AASEN – THE DIGITAL FRONTRUNNER Onshore control room – a successful first year
IVAR AASEN Priorities and outlook
Ivar Aasen production outlook1) (net mboepd)
JOHAN SVERDRUP A world class oil field
Resources: 2.2-3.2 bn boe
2P reserves: 2.7 bn boe
Recovery ambition above 70%
Plateau production phase 1 of 440 mboepd (Q2 20)
Plateau production phase 2 of 660 mboepd (Q2 22)
PRODUCTION PROFITABILITY CO2 RESOURCES INTENSITY
Break even oil price below USD 20 per barrel Currently ~350 mboepd 0.67 kg per barrel
Production cost below USD 2 per barrel
Photo: Equinor
JOHAN SVERDRUP Phase 2 with first oil late 2022 to lift production to +660 000 boepd
MAXIMIZING THE VALUE OF OUR ASSETS
SAFETY
LOW EMISSIONS
LOW COST HIGH PRODUCTION EFFICIENCY
PROFITABLE GROWTH
NOAKA Progressing towards a joint development of the NOAKA area
Creating value through exploration
Capital Markets Update 2020
Evy Glørstad SVP Exploration and Asset initiation
The Aker BP exploration formula EXPLORATION STRATEGY
Maximize value of operated hubs
60 %
Explore for new hub potential
40 %
Smart integration of data and technology
EXPLORATION Excellent exploration results in 2019
EXPLORATION PERFORMANCE Exploiting the potential around Alvheim
- Frosk on test production
- Evaluating options for Froskelår
- Maturing new exploration opportunities
EXPLORATION PERFORMANCE Liatårnet – exciting opportunity in the NOAKA area
Discovery estimated to 80-200 mmboe recoverable
Potential tie-in to NOAKA development solution
Appraisal well planned in 2020
EXPLORATION 2020 exploration programme
Net unrisked resources, mmboe (accumulative)
EXPLORATION Positioning Aker BP for further profitable growth
EXECUTE IMPROVE GROW
Follow up on 2019 successes with appraisal and new targets
Apply new technology to create new opportunities
Utilize existing infrastructure and search for new core areas
Maximizing returns through the cycle
Capital Markets Update 2020
David Tønne Chief Financial Officer
FINANCIAL STRATEGY Maximizing returns through the cycle by balancing three priorities
FINANCIAL STRATEGY Delivering on our 2019 ambitions
FINANCIAL STRATEGY Strong cash generation from producing assets
1) Assuming USDNOK of 8.5 in 2020 and onwards
2) Free cash flow: Net cash flow from operating activities after tax minus Net cash flow used in investment activities. Before dividends
67
INVEST IN PROFITABLE GROWTH Large resource base with highly attractive economics
Break-even for non-sanctioned projects (USD/boe)1)
INVEST IN PROFITABLE GROWTH Great opportunity for strong organic growth
Production ambition (mboepd)
INVEST IN PROFITABLE GROWTH Flexible investment program continuously optimized
Capitalized interest is excluded. Assuming USDNOK of 8.5 in 2020 and onwards 70
INVEST IN PROFITABLE GROWTH Climate risk integrated in investment decisions
Carbon pricing consistent with meeting climate goals
Investments tested against cost of carbon emissions consistent with IEA's Sustainable Development Scenario
Requires a carbon price of USD 100/tonne CO2 in 2030
- Aker BP carbon price used for investment decisions
- USD ~ 90/tonne CO2 in 2020
- USD ~ 105/tonne CO2 in 2030
INVEST IN PROFITABLE GROWTH Driving down production cost below USD 7 per barrel
Production cost (USD/boe)
INVEST IN PROFITABLE GROWTH Reducing cost and optimizing timing of decommissioning
Abandonment spend (USD million)
Investments in exploration provide upside to current plan INVEST IN PROFITABLE GROWTH
Exploration spend (USD million)
2019 review
- 16 exploration wells
- Discovered 170 mmboe
- Finding cost: USD 0.6 / bbl a.t.
2020 plan
- 10 wells planned
- Maturing recent discoveries
- Field evaluation spend depending on NOAKA DG2
Tax efficient
• Fully deductible same year at 78% tax rate
INVEST IN PROFITABLE GROWTH Profitable growth generating increased cash flow
Current producing fields and sanctioned and non-sanctioned projects
1) Free cash flow: Net cash flow from operating activities minus Net cash flow used in investment activities Assuming USDNOK of 8.5 in 2020 and onwards
MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT FINANCIAL CAPACITY Protecting a strong balance sheet
Leverage ratio Net debt / 12m EBITDAX BBB- (stable) Ba1 (stable) BBB- (stable) 1.2 - 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 2016 2017 2018 2019 Targeting leverage ratio below ~1.5x
Financial framework and risk management
- Continuously optimizing capital structure
- Investment grade credit profile
- Liquidity buffer > USD 2 billion
- Management of commodity price and FX risk
- Insurance of assets and loss of production
- Criteria for M&A
Capital structure with significant available capacity MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT FINANCIAL CAPACITY
High debt capacity – low utilization
Debt facilities USD million
Bond maturities USD million
Tax-adjusted net debt per 31.12.2019 USD billion
MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT FINANCIAL CAPACITY The plan is robust in various oil price scenarios
Leverage ratio - an approximation including all investments and dividends
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 \$ 50/bbl \$ 80/bbl \$ 65/bbl
3.0
Leverage ratio: Net debt/EBITDAX. Effect of oil put options are not included 2) All capex incl. sanctioned, non-sanctioned and NOAKA, Abex and Expex (no upsides from Exploration activity included). Static scenarios with no change in investment behavior or impact on supplier costs from changes in oil price 78
Balanced and stable fiscal regime RETURN VALUE CREATION
Tax payments - USD million
79
RETURN VALUE CREATION Returning value creation to shareholders
Dividends, USD million
Ambition to return value creation as dividends
- Strong cash flow from current production
- Profitable growth from flexible project pipeline
- Distributions matching underlying value creation
Plan for dividend payout
- Propose USD 850 million in 2020
- Annual increase of USD 100 million
FINANCIAL GUIDANCE 2020 Growing production – reducing spend – increasing dividends
FINANCIAL STRATEGY Capital allocation to maximize returns through the cycle
Invest in profitable growth
Maintain sufficient financial capacity
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Return value creation
Dividend plan USD million
\$ 50/bbl
\$ 80/bbl
\$ 65/bbl
82