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Aker BP — Investor Presentation 2016
Nov 21, 2016
3528_rns_2016-11-21_19294795-0492-4508-99db-56c53736cec9.pdf
Investor Presentation
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AKER BP ASA
CREDIT CAPITAL MARKETS DAY
Alexander Krane, CFO November 21, 2016
Disclaimer
This Document includes and is based, inter alia, on forward-looking information and statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ. These statements and this Document are based on current expectations, estimates and projections about global economic conditions, the economic conditions of the regions and industries that are major markets for Aker BP ASA's lines of business. These expectations, estimates and projections are generally identifiable by statements containing words such as "expects", "believes", "estimates" or similar expressions. Important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expectations include, among others, economic and market conditions in the geographic areas and industries that are or will be major markets for Aker BP ASA's businesses, oil prices, market acceptance of new products and services, changes in governmental regulations, interest rates, fluctuations in currency exchange rates and such other factors as may be discussed from time to time in the Document. Although Aker BP ASA believes that its expectations and the Document are based upon reasonable assumptions, it can give no assurance that those expectations will be achieved or that the actual results will be as set out in the Document. Aker BP ASA is making no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of the Document, and neither Aker BP ASA nor any of its directors, officers or employees will have any liability to you or any other persons resulting from your use.
AKER BP ASA Credit highlights
Strong execution: High margin operations with low operating cost
- Material oil-weighted portfolio: 795 mmboe 2P reserves (81% liquids)
- Substantial visible growth: Potential to reach 250 mboepd post 2020
- Purely operating on the NCS: Low political risk and attractive fiscal regime
- Industrial ownership: Aker ASA and BP plc control 70% of equity
- Robust and diversified capital structure: USD 2.3* bn in liquidity
- Prudent financial risk management policies: Downside protection
STRATEGY Using the downturn to create a company for the future
| Execute | Improve | Grow | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 92% | Operational efficiency* |
+95% | Drilling productivity** |
4x | Reserve increase*** |
||
| 6 USD/ boe |
Production cost* |
200 | USD mill |
2017 savings |
+35 | NOK bn |
Market capitalisation*** |
* First nine months 2016, as presented in P&L
** Maersk Interceptor most current production well vs first production well at Ivar Aasen
*** Compared to end 2014
AKER BP ASA Solid footprint covering entire NCS
Skarv Solid base performance and upside potential
Alvheim High production efficiency and low operating cost
Ivar Aasen On track to first oil in December 2016
Johan Sverdrup
World class development with break even price below 25 USD/bbl*
Ula/Tambar Late life production with significant upside potential
Valhall/Hod
Production from giant chalk reservoir with potential production in ~70 years
AKER BP ASA High margin production with low operating cost
- Excellent uptime and reliability record on Alvheim FPSO
- Operational efficiency of 92% YTD (incl. maintenance stop)
- Achieved a sustained high margin even in lower oil price environment
- Low production costs combined with a pricing premium to the Brent benchmark
*First nine months, as presented in P&L Note: 2016 production cost excludes transportation cost in order to be comparable to previous years
AKER BP ASA Significant production and cash flow
*Sanctioned and non-sanctioned projects
** Based on Det norske end of 2015 ASR (498 mmboe) and DeGolyer & MacNaughton (D&M) reserves for BP Norge AS (297 mmboe) end 2015
7
*** Based on Det norske evaluation for DETNOR, excluding immature options and identified upsides. D&M for BP Norge AS
AKER BP ASA Strengthened credit metrics from BP Norge merger
Strengthened balance sheet from new equity and increased debt capacity
- Increased cash flow
- Significant dividend capacity
- Credit accretive transaction
- Market value of equity to enterprise value has increased from ~45% to ~70% after deal
- About 35% reduction in net interest-bearing debt per boe of reserves
Illustrative capital structure, USD bn
* Based on market cap per June 9, 2016 and net interest bearing debt per end Q1-2016 ** Based on a share price of NOK 130,5 and net interest-bearing debt per end Q3-2016
AKER BP ASA Net interest bearing debt adjusted for tax
- Net interest bearing debt as of Q3 2016
- Tax positions include undepreciated tax position and tax loss carry forward estimated as of Q3 2016
Tax positions vs. Net debt - USDbn NCS tax system and implications for Aker BP
- Key attractions of the NCS tax system
- ~90% of investments recovered over 6 years
- Opex/exploration costs 78% immediate tax recovery
- Financial costs recovered ~40%**
- Full tax recovery under all scenarios
- If not in tax position, losses accumulated
- Losses refunded if petroleum activities discontinued
- Aker BP considerations
- Gearing considered relative to tax receivable
- Current debt position fully covered by tax receivable
- Tax positions are effectively government risk
- Tax balances expected to increase going forward due to organic capex program
AKER BP ASA Strong liquidity position and diversified capital structure
AKER BP ASA Prudent financial risk management policies
- Various hedging agreements for commodities, rates and FX to mitigate financial risk when pricing and levels are viewed as attractive
- No mandatory hedging requirements in debt facilities
- USD 55 put options for ~12% of oil production volumes in 2016 (including BP Norge)
- USD 400 million of floating rate debt swapped to fixed rate until 2020 at rates below 1%
- Aker BP is a USD-company, but NOK exposure is high from Sverdrup investments, operating costs and tax payments
- Loss of production insurance for Alvheim, Ivar Aasen, Skarv and Valhall
- Covers loss of production after 60 days at net USD 50/bbl
Hedging Overview of current hedges
| 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Foreign exchange rate hedges |
|||
| % hedged of total NOK exposure |
~40% | ~40% | ~30% |
| Type of structure | Collars + forwards |
Collars + forwards |
Forwards |
| Average Hedge Rate | 8.04 – 8.84 |
8.26 – 8.57 |
8.45 |
AKER BP ASA 2016 guidance
| Item | Actual Year-to-date Sept 30, 2016 | Guidance Aker BP ASA FY 2016 |
||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DETNOR BP Norge AS |
(Economic exposure)* |
|||
| 2016 CAPEX | USD 626 million | USD 14 million | USD 910 - 930 million |
|
| 2016 EXPEX | USD 176 million | USD 5 million |
USD 240 – 260 million |
|
| 2016 production | 61.0 mboepd | 56.0 mboepd | 118 – 120 mboepd |
|
| 2016 Production cost | USD 6.3 per boe | USD 19.3 per boe | USD ~13 per boe |
Note: Guidance based on USD/NOK 8.5
* Effective date of the merger with BP Norge AS was January 1, 2016. For accounting purposes, BP Norge AS will be included in the financial accounts from September 30, 2016.
AKER BP ASA Creating the leading independent offshore E&P company
Unique capabilities
World class asset base
Financially robust
- Combining nimble business practices with IOC capabilities and 175 years of industrial experience
- Leveraging Det norske's improvement agenda and lean initiatives to revitalize business model
Combined production of 122 mboepd and reserves of 795 mmboe
Predominantly operated portfolio with 5 operated hubs with significant development potential
Inventory of high quality non-sanctioned discoveries
- Diversification of production and cash flow
- Strong balance sheet combined with attractive dividends
- Positioned for further growth
Appendix
FINANCIALS Statement of income
| Income statement (USD mill) | Q3 2016 | Q2 2016 | FY 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues | 248 | 256 | 1,222 |
| Production costs | 32 | 39 | 141 |
| Other operating expenses |
6 | 5 | 52 |
| EBITDAX | 210 | 211 | 1,029 |
| Exploration expenses | 31 | 36 | 76 |
| EBITDA | 179 | 175 | 953 |
| Depreciation | 115 | 120 | 481 |
| Impairment losses | 8 | (20) | 430 |
| Operating profit/loss (EBIT) | 56 | 74 | 41 |
| Net financial items |
(5) | (29) | (155) |
| Profit/loss before taxes | 51 | 45 | (114) |
| Tax (+) / Tax income (-) | (13) | 39 | 199 |
| Net profit/loss | 63 | 6 | (313) |
| EPS (USD) | 0.31 | 0.03 | (1.54) |
FINANCIALS Statement of financial position
| Assets (USD mill) |
30.09.16 | 30.09.15 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goodwill | 1 858 | 948 | |
| Other intangible assets |
1 701 | 898 | |
| Property, plant and equipment |
4 383 | 2 929 | |
| Deferred tax assets | 889 | - | |
| Calculated tax receivables (long) |
22 | 0 | |
| Receivables and other assets | 507 | 246 | |
| Calculated tax receivables (short) |
133 | 8 | |
| Cash and cash equivalents |
786 | 207 | |
| Total Assets |
10 280 | 5 237 |
| Equity and liabilities (USD mill) |
30.09.16 | 30.09.15 |
|---|---|---|
| Equity | 2 579 | 495 |
| Other provisions for liabilities incl. P&A (long) |
2 400 | 555 |
| Deferred tax |
1 415 | 1 424 |
| Bonds | 526 | 511 |
| Bank debt | 2 640 | 1 842 |
| Other current liabilities incl. P&A (short) | 721 | 409 |
| Total Assets |
10 280 | 5 237 |
FINANCIALS Third quarter cash flow
17 * Including FX effect on cash held ** Including cash beginning of year of USD 1.5 million and FX effect on cash held