Investor Presentation • Jun 29, 2021
Investor Presentation
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Strategic Update
29 June 2021
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David Martínez Chief Executive Officer
Alberto Delgado Chief Operating Officer
Sergio Gálvez Chief Strategy & Investment Officer
María José Leal Chief Financial Officer
| Section | Speaker | Page | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | Looking ahead and building on our foundations: 5-year revised Business Plan |
David Martínez | 5 |
| 02 | Operationally ready to seize the opportunity | Alberto Delgado | 15 |
| 03 | Disciplined acceleration of our land investment strategy | Sergio Gálvez | 21 |
| 04 | Shareholder value creation at the forefront of our goals | María José Leal |
28 |
| 05 | Key takeaways and medium-term objectives | David Martínez | 33 |
Looking ahead and building on our foundations: 5-year revised Business Plan 01
Largest listed homebuilder in Spain
c. 2,000 deliveries achieved in FY2020
Replenished best-in-class c.€2bn land bank located in the most attractive regions in Spain
Robust capital structure: 12% LTV1 , highest-quality credit rating in the Spanish homebuilding industry (B+ / BB- / Ba2), diversified portfolio of sources of funding
Business conducted under shareholder value creation principles and financial discipline, to sustainably attain AEDAS goal of €250m+ EBITDA (20%+ margin) and ROE around 15%
Pure-play homebuilder strategy
Source: Company Information Note: FY2020E ended in March 2021 (1) Pro-Forma for €325m Bond Issuance
Favourable housing markets prospects fuelled by a positive forthcoming economic scenario coupled with unprecedented savings levels
Expanding demand for new-build housing supported by strong affordability metrics and benign financing conditions
Imbalance between growing demand for new-build homes and limited supply will drive pricing power, margin expansion and top-line growth
The AEDAS product is at the sweet spot of customer demand
Pandemic impact on small landowners has dynamised the land market
Spanish Real GDP and Inflation Expected Evolution (%)
The Spanish economy is ready for take-off
Spanish households hit record savings levels
Source: INE, Banco de España (1) Banco de España Base Case Scenario
Historical Housing Mortgages Average Interest Rate Financial Effort to Buy vs. Rent (as % of Disp. Income)1 2
Source: Company Information, Idealista (publicly disclosed data), INE
(1) % of annual disposable income per household required on average to finance a house mortgage vs. house rental in Spain
(2) Monthly average of annual mortgage interest rates from INE database
COVID-19 Period
New-Build Housing Transactions in Spain (000's Units)
Striking imbalance between demand and supply of new-build housing
Source: Company Information, INE, Ministerio de Fomento (Vivienda Libre Nueva)
1Q10 4Q10 3Q11 2Q12 1Q13 4Q13 3Q14 2Q15 1Q16 4Q16 3Q17 2Q18 1Q19 4Q19 3Q20
| 1 | Strategically | Largest listed pure-play homebuilder in Spain by market cap and leading player in terms of LTM deliveries Best-in-class c.€2bn fully-permitted land bank deliberately located in Spain's most dynamic regions (expected to concentrate c. 60% of new-build home demand by 2030) |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Operationally | Operational ramp-up complete and platform now operating at levels consistent with run-rate targets of 3,000-3,700 deliveries per annum |
| Consistently selling over 250 units per month and sustaining a stock of c.10,000 active units |
||
| 3 | Access to Land |
Proven disciplined investment approach with €500m+ land acquisitions since January 2017 Pipeline of c.€800m supports acceleration of investment budget targeting €200-300m of acquisitions in the next 12 months |
| 4 | Financially | / Ba2)1 Conservative capital structure with a 12% LTV and best credit rating (B+ / BB- in the Spanish industry |
| Ample liquidity of €310m+ and long-term maturities following recent bond issuance |
| FY 2021E | FY 2022E / 2023E (per annum) |
FY 2024E / 2025E (per annum) |
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | €750m+ | ~€1,000m / year | ~€1,400-1,500m / year | ||
| EBITDA (Margin) |
€140m+ ( ~20%) |
€190-200m / year ( ~20%) |
€300-350m / year (21 23%) - |
||
| Implied ROE | 8-10% | ~12% | ~18% | ||
| Dividends | 50% pay-out1 + potential extraordinary dividend up to 20% LTV |
Source: Company Information Note: FY2021E ended in March 2022, idem for FY2022-25E (1) Computed on prior year net income
6 regional branches supported by 3 core teams at headquarters
Source: Company Information
(1) FTEs corresponding to Centre regional branch only, excluding core central teams FTEs located in Madrid headquarters
| Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Levers to Maximize Margins | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Land Investment |
1 Deep knowledge of local land markets and off |
|||
| 2 Product Definition and Design |
6-7 Months |
market sourcing capabilities across Spain 2 Established framework ensuring product quality |
||
| 3 Permitting |
6-9 Months | and feasibility, with a high degree of standardisation and a clear focus on ESG Excellence |
||
| 4 Marketing and Sales |
24-36 Months | Shift towards bilateral processes with proven architects and contractors |
||
| 5 Procurement |
3 Months |
ESG fully compliant operations backed by Company's well-established "Green Book" |
||
| 6 Construction |
18-21 Months | 3 Long-standing relationships with local administrations, optimizing timings and resources |
||
| 27-33 Months | 2-3 Months Delivery |
Please refer to next page for stages (4), and (5) 4 5 6 |
| Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Levers to Maximize Margins | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Land Investment |
4 Strong digital strategy, capillarity of sales points |
|||
| 2 Product Definition and Design |
6-7 Months |
Full control on pricing strategy, not conditioned by financing constraints |
||
| 3 Permitting |
6-9 Months | Premium pricing leveraging on brand awareness 5 |
||
| 4 Marketing and Sales |
24-36 Months | Well-defined turnkey contracts hedging supplies cost increases and protecting AEDAS' margins |
||
| 5 Procurement |
3 Months |
Close, sticky relationships with top tier contractors given high recurring volumes and product quality |
||
| 6 Construction |
18-21 Months | 6 Leveraging on quality, factory-build components and offsite construction (25% of deliveries by 2023) |
||
| 27-33 Months | 2-3 Months Delivery |
Denotes % of Development ASP A 4.0% increase in Raw Materials Costs would be fully offset by just an increase of ~1.0% of HPA
Source: Company Information (1) Activated Financial Costs
May 2021
Accumulated 3,400+ units already delivered as of May 2021A, in line with deliveries target communicated at IPO for the same period
Source: Company Information. Note: FY2018 and FY19 ended December 2018/19
(1) Refers to AEDAS land bank units that are already under some of the active development phases (in design, on the market, under construction or completed pending delivery) (2) Computed taking into account a 30 months development period after land acquisition and a run-rate target of 3,000 deliveries per year
Cook L'Hospitalet de Llobregat Barcelona
Population and Residential Demand Concentrated in AEDAS Footprint
1
2
3
Investment strategy validated by the expected demand of new-build houses across 2021-30E in Company's footprint
Land bank concentration in areas of strong structural demand provides visibility over BP and a privileged positioned to source new land in those locations
Significant imbalance between a strong expected demand for new-build housing and the supply of land available, to elevate land prices from 2022 onwards
80 municipalities, where AEDAS has a strong presence, will concentrate c.60% of the new-build house demand by 2030
The next 12-18 months will be a unique investment window for AEDAS, operationally and financially ready
| Category | Considerations | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National Players |
Limited appetite for land in the medium-term, given sizeable land banks either legacy or as a result of recent large-scale acquisitions |
||||
| Mid-sized Regional Players |
High number of competitors shifting towards PRS strategies, devoting most of their resources to the development and management of rental portfolios |
||||
| Small Local Players |
More strict financing requirements hindering access to land and leading to reduced investment volumes and forcing disposal of land plots and WIP |
Institutional Land Owners with Increased Pressure to Wind-Down Portfolios
Relevant Number of Strategic Land Plots Soon to Become RTB and Come to Market
Increased pressure to liquidate significant parts of their land portfolios to offset business plan delays caused by COVID-19
Large land packages expected to come to market at attractive prices
Meaningful number of land plots undergoing transformation in the last 4-5 years soon to become ready-to-build and come to market
100% Cherry-picked portfolio, plot by plot (96% of deals proactively sourced off-market, rarely engaging in competitive processes)
Focused on best locations within the 6 AEDAS' regions: portfolio consistent with housing demand, with a strong weight of the Madrid area (39% of 2020/21 investment)
100% residential fully permitted land and 92% ready to build, for mid to mid-high segment as primary residences (92% of 2020/21 investments) which has allowed 66% of last 4 years investments2 to be already active and /or delivered
Robust economic returns on worst case scenarios and significant room for upside: since IPO, all the land invested has a minimum 20% target net development margin
Hybrid sourcing approach: (i) self-sourced deals and (ii) REOs and NPLs acquisitions (20%+ of historical closed deals)
Comprehensive and speedy due diligence process, led in-house, taking on average 8 weeks, which allows AEDAS team to close 1 deal by public deed every 10 days
…Backing Land Bank Replenishment (Land Bank Evolution
Source: Company Information
Note: FY2014 to FY2018 ended December 2014-2018. FY2019 and FY2020 ended March 2020/2021
(1) Average yearly investment in land since Dec-2017; (2) Includes active and completed units (as of FY2020) bought since Jan-2017;
(3) Financial reporting year end changed from December to March
15.5 15.5
Pipeline by Status Pipeline by Region Next 12 months Guidance
47% 15% 15% 13% 7% 3% ~5 deals ~€60m ~30 deals ~€140m ~70 deals ~€600m Binding deals, pending signing Non-binding offer accepted, under exclusive Due Diligence Potential Transactions in preliminary stages €0.8bn 3 2 1 c.3.1k-3.3k units of land bank replenished (vs. 4.0k units in the last 2 years) €200- 300m Land Investments (vs. €132m in the last year) Madrid East & Mallorca North Andalusia & Canary Islands Catalonia & ZaragozaCosta del Sol
Source: Company Information
| FY 2021E | FY 2022E / 2023E (per annum) |
FY 2024E / 2025E (per annum) |
||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | €750m+ | ~€1,000m | ~€1,400-1,500m | |
| EBITDA (Margin) |
€140m+ ( ~20%) |
€190-200m ( ~20%) |
€300-350m (21 23%) - |
|
| Net Income | €90m+ | €130-140m | €210-250m | |
| Implied ROE | 8-10% | ~12% | ~18% | |
| Dividends | 50% pay-out1 + potential extraordinary dividend of up to 20% LTV |
Source: Company Information Note: FY2021E ended in March 2022, idem for FY2022-25E (1) Computed on prior year net income
AEDAS Business Plan Targets Guidance (range midpoint) Broker Consensus Median as of Jun-2021 Denotes EBITDA margin (%)
Current AEDAS Market Valuation in Context
Source: Company Information, Market data as of 23-Jun-2021 Note: FY2022E ending in 31-Mar-2023, FY2023E ending in 31-Mar-2024, FY2024E ending in 31-Mar-2025, FY2025E ending in 31-Mar-2026 Etheria (Offsite development) El Cañaveral Madrid
The Spanish homebuilding industry is on the cusp of an expansion cycle, driven by the post-Covid economic recovery and structural imbalance between supply and demand
1II
1 I
This new cycle will offer an unprecedented opportunity to create more value for shareholders
1III
AEDAS Homes is operationally and financially ready to scale up and capture this opportunity
Fully ramped up platform positioned in the right locations; proven land sourcing capabilities to capture investments opportunities identified in pipeline
Strong financial foundation and ample firepower
Ambitious new 5-year Business Plan, with the goal of taking AEDAS Homes to up to €1.5bn in revenue and up to €300-350m in EBITDA by FY 2025
Source: Company Information Note: FY 2025 ending in 31-Mar-2026
"Translating an Expansive Cycle into Value"
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