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ADX ENERGY LTD — Capital/Financing Update 2017
May 16, 2017
64308_rns_2017-05-16_fdaef52f-c5f3-4067-b1ac-32632ce6d02d.pdf
Capital/Financing Update
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ASSET & CORPORATE UPDATE
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17 May 2017
www.adx-energy.com
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DISCLAIMER
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This document has been prepared by ADX Energy Ltd for the purpose of providing an activity update to interested analysts/investors and shareholders. Any statements, opinions, projections, forecasts or other material contained in this document do not constitute any commitments, representations or warranties by ADX Energy Ltd or its directors, agents and employees. Except as required by law, and only to the extent so required, directors, agents and employees of ADX Energy Ltd shall in no way be liable to any person or body for any loss, claim, demand, damages, costs or expenses of whatsoever nature arising in any way out of, or in connection with, the information contained in this document. This document includes certain statements, opinions, projections, forecasts and other material, which reflect various assumptions. The assumptions may or may not prove to be correct. ADX Energy Ltd recommends that potential investors consult their professional advisor/s as an investment in the company is considered to be speculative in nature.
CONTINGENT RESOURCES & DEFINITIONS
Tunisia: Refer to ASX announcements 26/9/2012 (contingent) and 6/9/2013 (prospective). Italy: Refer to ASX announcements 17/2/2016 & 14/2/2017 (contingent) and 21/4/2016 (prospective). ADX confirms that it is not aware of any new information or data that affects the information included in those market announcements and that all the material assumptions and technical parameters underpinning the estimates in the relevant market announcement continue to apply and have not materially changed.
Contingent Resources: those quantities of petroleum estimated, as of a given date, to be potentially recoverable from known accumulations but, for which the applied project(s) are not yet considered mature enough for commercial development due to one or more contingencies.
1C, 2C, 3C Estimates: in a probabilistic resource size distribution these are the P90 (90% probability), P50, and P10, respectively, for individual opportunities . Totals are by arithmetic summation as recommended under PRMS guidelines. This results in a conservative low case total and optimistic high case total.
Persons compiling information about Hydrocarbons.
Pursuant to the requirements of the ASX Listing Rules 5.41 and 5.42, the technical and resource information contained in this presentation has been reviewed by Paul Fink, Technical Director of ADX Energy Limited. Mr. Fink is a qualified geophysicist with 23 years of technical, commercial and management experience in exploration for, appraisal and development of oil and gas resources. Mr. Fink has reviewed the results, procedures and data contained in this presentation and considers the resource estimates to be fairly represented. Mr. Fink has consented to the inclusion of this information in the form and context in which it appears. Mr. Fink is a member of the EAGE (European Association of Geoscientists & Engineers) and FIDIC (Federation of Consulting Engineers)
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Corporate Overview
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Summary
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An ASX listed international energy exploration and appraisal Company (ASX:ADX)
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Asset refocus on low cost, low risk, profitable asset commercialisation
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Portfolio of Appraisal, Development and Exploration assets with compelling 2C resource base
– Ca ital Structure Pre Ri hts Issue p g
| Shares on Issue | 929 million |
|---|---|
| No of Shareholders | 2,582 |
| Market Capitalisation @ 1.3 cents | $ 12 million |
| Top 20 shareholder Interest | 51.81% |
ASX 2C Resources / Enterprise Value
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Geographic focus – Offshore Mediterranean and Onshore Europe
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Experienced Board and Management team
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11.5% of Riedel Resources (ASX:RIE)
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Current Value $600,000
Source: Resource Invest
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Recent Trends and Activities
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18 Month Focus of Activities and Share Price Performance
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“Focus on Nilde Resources Evaluation and Concept Definition”
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Rights Issue Summary
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1 for 5 Non-renounceable Rights Issue to raise up to $2,415,445.
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Any Entitlement not taken up will form a Shortfall Offer that will remain open for up to three months following the Closing Date.
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Shares on issue following the completion of the Entitlement Offer and Shortfall Offer 1,114,820,924 shares
Funding will focus on the following areas;
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Dougga Rig Negotiations, Logistics and Drilling Planning
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Nilde Appraisal Well Drilling and Completion Design
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Nilde Appraisal Well Planning and Regulatory Approvals
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Geophysical and Geological Studies for Dougga and Parta (Romania)
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Nilde and Dougga Independent Resources Assessments
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Dougga Project Feasibility Studies
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Nilde Development Planning
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Working capital & Administrative/Corporate Costs
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The funding will enable ADX to remain financially strong while seeking to deliver transformational farm ins to progress its appraisal and development assets.
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Geography
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Sicily Channel (Tunisia and Italy) and Romania (Onshore)
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Contains 1 Oil Field, 3 Oil and 2 Gas Discoveries
Combination of Development, Appraisal and Exploration
Variety of proven hydrocarbon provinces
Areas we know well technically and commercially
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Extensive Mediterranean Position - All Permits at 100% equity
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Nilde Field
33 mmbo (2C) Contingent
Resource
ADX Feb 2017 Assessment
Dougga West (oil)
Prospect
227 mmboe Best case
Prospective Resource Lambouka
Recent Award
Dougga Gas Condensate
Tunisia Resource Potential (note 1) Discovery
Contingent resources: 173 mmboe 173 mmboe (2C)
Prospective resources: 1,027 mmboe Contingent Resource
Note 1. Prospective and contingent resources were calculated using the probabilistic method and are best estimates. Conversion
factor: 1BOE = 5.62 scf. Reporting date: prospective resources 6 Sept 2013, contingent resources 26 Sept 2012.
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Appraisal & Development Strategy
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ADX has large existing Contingent Resource base at the Nilde Oil Redevelopment and Dougga Gas Condensate -
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Discovery converting these resources to reserves will create exceptional value growth;
Convert Large Resource Base to Reserves
1. Nilde is a low risk project with proven production performance and substantial 2C resource - Now Farm out ready
2. Dougga is a large liquid rich, tested gas condensate discovery well defined on Geostreamer 3D Seismic,
- Feasibility Studies, Resources Re-evaluation & Sourcing Drilling Rig Underway for Appraisal Well
Production Opportunities available in Romania capable of delivering immediate cash flow and value addition through production enhancement and reserves additions. Leverage in country knowledge, relationships, partnerships and experience as JV – operator.
Compliment Resources with Production Introduce New Sources of Capital in line with maturation of Asset Base
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NILDE OIL FIELD REDEVELOPEMENT
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Photograph shows oil stained Nilde cores
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Nilde Redevelopment Summary
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Lead-5
Nailia-1 Lead-4
Nilde-1 bis
Norma-1
Nilde-2
Lead-3
Lead-1
Lead-2
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Background
Acquired as exploration permit, remaining potential of Nilde identified by ADX in late 2015, independently audited in February 2016 and project feasibility undertaken in 2016 / 2017
Resource Attributes
Substantial remaining resource (2C of approximately 33 MMBBL) defined by multiple wells, an extensive geological data base and production history
Preferred Development Option
A collaboration with Calm Oceans via a preferred development option utilising a self-installing Mono Column Platform (MCP) and a gravity based storage and offloading system (RPSO) which would enhance the overall viability of the Development in terms of economics, feasibility and operability
Additional Potential
Economic Potential at US$ 40/bbl
Excellent project economics due to reservoir high productivity, light sweet crude, shallow drill depths, shallow water depth and low royalties
– 2 Tested Oil Discoveries 2 MMbbls (1C) to 15 MMbbls(3C) resource potential
Post Tax NPV10 = US$200 to 650 million @ approx US40/bbl for 1C to 3C case
Near Field Exploration - 90 MMbbls best est. Prospective Resource
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Nilde Recent Progress
Production Profiles for 1C, Resource Revision & 2C & 3C Resources Case : Reservoir Simulation 33 mmbo for 2C
COPL self-installing Mono Column Platform (MCP) Major CAPEX & OPEX savings
Concept Selection & Collaboration
US$ 350MM Post Tax NPV(10) @40$/bbl, for 2C case (33 mmbbls)
Development Economics
“Project Well Defined and Farm out Ready”
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Revenue Split 2 C Resource @ US$ 40/bbl Total Revenue = US $1.3 billion Royalty Drilling & Capex Opex & Lease Tax AfterTax Cashflow
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Nilde Resource Definition
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2C Contingent Resource (most likely) of 33 million barrels
| Nilde/Nilde Bis Contingent Resources1 | 1C2 | 2C2 | 3C2 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017–Detailed Reservoir Modelling | 21.7 | 32.8 | 49.8 | ||
| 2016 – Probabilistic Volumetrics (Senergy)2,3 | 18.0 | 28.4 | 38.8 | ||
| Variance | 3.7 | 4.4 | 11.0 | ||
| Note 1&2 below right; Note 3 : Nilde and Nilde Bis volumes from Senergy Report have been arithmetically added. |
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Detailed reservoir modelling updated probabilistic contingent resource numbers from early 2016 by Senergy GB Limited (Senergy).
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Senergy are well respected independent reserves certifier from Lloyds Group of Companies
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Expanded range, particularly to the upside results from
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Core evaluation; more significant fracture system
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Detailed Petrophysics & Saturation Height modelling; deeper oil water contact, improved porosity in lower oil layers
Notes regarding Oil Resource Volumes
1 Contingent Resources: those quantities of petroleum estimated, as of a given date, to be potentially recoverable from known accumulations but, for which the applied project(s) are not yet considered mature enough for commercial development due to one or more contingencies.
- 2 1C, 2C, 3C Estimates: in a probabilistic resource size distribution these are the P90 (90% probability), P50, and P10, respectively, for individual opportunities .
3. Totals are by arithmetic summation as recommended under PRMS guidelines. This results in a conservative low case total and optimistic high case total.
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Nilde Development Concept Selection
MCP & RPSO Facilities Option
MCP – Leased Production Platform
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Calm Oceans Pte Ltd (COPL) COPL has developed and constructed a selfinstalling Mono Column Platform (MCP)
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The MCP is capable of supporting a drilling rig, production processing equipment water and gas reinjection facilities as well as accommodation
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Enables field to be redeveloped with reduced well costs (less 60%) enabling dry trees and reinjection of produced fluids
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MCP provides significant capex and opex savings over an FPSO as well as superior operability and well intervention.
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The MCP option schematic – incorporating production and drilling capability with dry well heads. Source: Calm Oceans Pte. Ltd, Mono Column Platforms are proprietary and patented.
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Nilde Economic Summary
Comments on Economic Results
Post Tax NPV 10 vs's Oil Price
$1,200
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NPV10 Range at current oil price between
$1,000
US$ 200 to 650 Million
Value
All resources cases demonstrate high $800
Range
profitability, rapid paybacks and low oil price $600
profitability (sub US$ 30/bbl)
$400
High profit investment ratios are the result
of low pre production costs and robust NPV’s $200
Lease costs are favourable compared to an $-
FPSO option but deliver significantly lower $30 $35 $40 $45 $50 $55 $60
drilling and completion capex US $/ bbl
Profitability Measures 1C Case 2C Case 3C Case
Resource Case 1C 2C 3C Key Cost & Schedule Assumptions
Profit Investment Ratio (PIR) 1.6 3.3 5.4 Nilde appraisal well drilled first half 2018
Payback (months) 12 9 6
suspended as producer.
(post tax) 55% 83% 101%
Tie back appraisal well, drill 2 platform
Net Revenue / Bbl (US$) 12.8 17.8 24.5
Capex /Bbl (US$) 4.80 3.37 3.37 development wells and 1 platform
x / Bbl (US$) 8.97 5.86 5.86 disposal well end 2019
US$ millions
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Profitability Measures |
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|---|---|
| Resource Case | 1C 2C 3C |
| Profit Investment Ratio(PIR) 1.6 3.3 5.4 |
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| Payback(months) 12 9 6 |
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| IRR(post tax) 55% 83% 101% |
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| Net Revenue / Bbl(US$) 12.8 17.8 24.5 |
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| Capex /Bbl(US$) 4.80 3.37 3.37 |
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| Opex / Bbl (US$) 8.97 5.86 5.86 |
- First Production January 2020
Note: Opex / Bbl includes all facilities lease rates
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Nilde Immediate Way Forward
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Funding and Farmout
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Taken longer than expected to get all required data & information for credible value proposition
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Resource, project feasibility and economics results to date are highly compelling
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Asset already generating significant interest in UK
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Commenced formal financing and farmout process
Project Development Planning and Appraisal
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Ongoing discussions with Italian Authorities to enable license operations
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Goal is to progress appraisal well planning and Nilde Redevelopment planning in parallel to enable submission of development plan after drilling a successful appraisal well.
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An appraisal well is pre-investment to ensure an optimal subsurface development plan and secure project finance.
Contractor Collaboration
- Collaboration with capable contractors is enabling ADX to progress a material project at low cost while ensuring the appropriate skills and experience is deployed on the project
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DOUGGA GAS CONDENSATE FIELD
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Photograph shows fractured Abiod reservoir outcrop, Tunisia
Dougga Gas Condensate Field
Background (100% equity)
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Nilde oil
Dougga West (oil)
field
Prospect
227 mmboe Best case
Prospective Resource
Dougga Gas Condensate Discovery
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Large Prospective Resource Potential
ADX Best Case Estimate : 1,027 mmboe
Note 1. Prospective and contingent resources were calculated using the probabilistic method and are best estimates. Conversion factor: 1BOE = 5.62 scf. Reporting date: prospective resources 6 Sept 2013, contingent resources 26 Sept 2012.
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The Dougga 1 well intersected approx 300 m gross gas column and tested condensate rich gas in 1981.
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Dougga 1 is located in 328m of water, 45kms east of Cap Bon. Dougga gas is liquids-rich but also contains 18% to 30% CO2.
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ADX acquired 3D seismic over the field and near field prospects.
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Prior to the Arab spring, highly reputable independent expert AGR Tracs assessed that the field was likely to be commercialised.
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Previous project economics assumed offshore floating facilities.
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Near field discovery tie in opportunities and large exploration potential defined on 3 D seismic.
What Has Changed Recently
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Improvement in the political landscape and willingness of Tunisian Authorities to consider revised fiscal terms
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Potential to significantly reduce Capex with revised development option.
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Tunisia has become net importer of gas
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Dougga Gas Condensate Field
Contingent Resource Potential
| Contingent Resources Estimates | 1C | 2C | 3C |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Oil Equivalent [mmboe] | 88 | 173 | 268 |
| Liquids:Condensate &LPG [mmbls] | 47 | 91 | 142 |
| Sales Gas [bcf] | 264 | 517 | 804 |
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Dougga-West
Dougga
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Sources: Competent persons reports (CPR) by TRACS and ISIS, Development Plan by Genesis Dougga Gas Condensate Appraisal – Contingent unrisked resources The Tracs CPR from July 2012 estimates a 70% chance of success for a commercial development.
Undrilled up dip Additional updip reservoir section potential
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DOUGGA-1
Abiod Map
DOUGGA-1
UPDIP APPRAISAL
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Top Birsa Map
300 meter gas column intersected in Dougga #1 well mapped and supported by RFT pressure data. 600 meter max. gas column 300 Meters of Up dip potential based on 3D seismic not included in current resource assessment. Dougga West Oil Prospect located within 9kms of Dougga 18
– Dougga Recent Progress
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Renegotiate licence work program focussing on Dougga Area Appraisal
Revise work program from 3D Seismic and Exploration Well to Geological Modelling, Development Concept Studies, Drill a Dougga Updip Well and Productivity Test the Well.
3D Petrel Reservoir Model including Fracture Network and 3D Petrophysics model
Basis for new & fully integrated Resources Estimate & productivity simulation
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TechnipFMC Development Concept Study
Undertake Study to Determine Optimal Concept and provide optimal CAPEX & OPEX estimate
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“Revised Technical and Commercial Case being Generated”
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Parta Romania Exploration
Photograph shows Petrom oil field facilities a few kilometrs north of ADX Parta block
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– Parta Romania Permit Progress
50% equity interest and Operator
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3D area
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30 months extension ratified with government in December 2016.
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3D seismic over existing oil field indicating excellent “low hanging fruit” exploration potential
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3D seismic permitting process completed
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As a result 3D seismic now can be acquired for prospects close to producing fields
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3D Seismic Tender completed, award decision pending
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ADX well positioned for farm out
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PARTA 3D Seismic Value Creation Potential Appraisal Opportunity Example
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Small 3D seismic inside ADX license already demonstrates potential to identify low risk appraisal drilling targets
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ADX Forward Plan
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A three pronged approach to build a sustainable growth platform with nearly all the necessary pieces in place
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A transformational near term development at Nilde
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Substantial value development at Dougga
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Exploration potential in the Sicily Channel and Romania
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Our large resource base can provide extraordinary value development by converting it to reserves and then production
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Our 18 month ambitions – a series of transformational opportunities
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Nilde Farm out
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Nilde Appraisal Drilling
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Completion of Dougga resource and feasibility review
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Dougga farmout
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Dougga Appraisal Drilling
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Potential Romanian Reserves and Production Acquisition
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Ian Tchacos Executive Chairman Paul Fink Chief Executive
Head Office: Level 2, Suite 14 210 Bagot Road, Subiaco, WA, 6008 Tel: 61 8 9381 4266 Fax: 61 8 9381 4766 Website www.adxenergy.com.au Email [email protected]
ASX Code ADX
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