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ADX ENERGY LTD — AGM Information 2016
May 25, 2016
64308_rns_2016-05-25_3be269f5-d1cf-49e2-9dd1-ad44e082018f.pdf
AGM Information
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ADX Energy
Investor Update
Annual General Meeting 26 May 2016
www.adx-energy.com
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DISCLAIMER
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This document has been prepared by ADX Energy Ltd for the purpose of providing an activity update to interested analysts/investors and shareholders. Any statements, opinions, projections, forecasts or other material contained in this document do not constitute any commitments, representations or warranties by ADX Energy Ltd or its directors, agents and employees. Except as required by law, and only to the extent so required, directors, agents and employees of ADX Energy Ltd shall in no way be liable to any person or body for any loss, claim, demand, damages, costs or expenses of whatsoever nature arising in any way out of, or in connection with, the information contained in this document. This document includes certain statements, opinions, projections, forecasts and other material, which reflect various assumptions. The assumptions may or may not prove to be correct. ADX Energy Ltd recommends that potential investors consult their professional advisor/s as an investment in the company is considered to be speculative in nature.
CONTINGENT RESOURCES & DEFINITIONS
Tunisia: Refer to ASX announcements 26/9/2012 (contingent) and 6/9/2013 (prospective). Italy: Refer to ASX announcements 17/2/2016 (contingent) and 21/4/2016 (prospective). ADX confirms that it is not aware of any new information or data that affects the information included in those market announcements and that all the material assumptions and technical parameters underpinning the estimates in the relevant market announcement continue to apply and have not materially changed.
All Italian contingent resource figures quoted in this presentation are third party verified.
Contingent Resources: those quantities of petroleum estimated, as of a given date, to be potentially recoverable from known accumulations but, for which the applied project(s) are not yet considered mature enough for commercial development due to one or more contingencies.
1C, 2C, 3C Estimates: in a probabilistic resource size distribution these are the P90 (90% probability), P50, and P10, respectively, for individual opportunities . Totals are by arithmetic summation as recommended under PRMS guidelines. This results in a conservative low case total and optimistic high case total.
Persons compiling information about Hydrocarbons.
Pursuant to the requirements of the ASX Listing Rules 5.41 and 5.42, the technical and resource information contained in this presentation has been reviewed by Paul Fink, Technical Director of ADX Energy Ltd. Mr. Fink is a qualified geophysicist with 23 years of technical, commercial and management experience in exploration for, appraisal and development of oil and gas resources. Mr. Fink has reviewed the results, procedures and data contained in this presentation and considers the resource estimates to be fairly represented. Mr. Fink has consented to the inclusion of this information in the form and context in which it appears. Mr. Fink is a member of the EAGE (European Association of Geoscientists & Engineers) and FIDIC (Federation of Consulting Engineers).
CORPORATE
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Summary
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An ASX listed international energy explorer (ASX:ADX)
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Asset refocus on low cost, low risk, profitable asset commercialisation
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Portfolio of Appraisal, Development and Exploration assets
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Geographic focus – Offshore Mediterranean and Onshore Europe with license to operate in all jurisdictions
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Experienced Board and Management team
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Company has been restructured to minimise administration and fixed overhead
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11.5% interest in Riedel Resources (ASX:RIE) - Value at 25 May 16 = $624,000
Capital Structure
| Shares on Issue | 770.6 million |
|---|---|
| No of Shareholders | 2,619 |
| Market Capitalisation @ 0.7 cents | $ 5.4 million |
| Top 20 shareholder Interest | 56.7% |
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GEOGRAPHIC FOCUS
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Offshore Mediterranean and Onshore Central Europe
- Acreage Contains 1 Oil Field, 3 Oil Discoveries and 1 gas condensate discovery
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Parta, Romania
50% operated
Pannonian
Basin
Provencal Tyrrhenian
basin Sea
Aegean
extension
4 Sicily Channel Licenses Libyan Sea
(3 Italy & 1 Tunisia)
100% operated
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Approximately 6,000 km² ADX operated assets * Combination of Development, Appraisal and Exploration Potential * Variety of proven hydrocarbon provinces * Areas we know well technically and commercially with potential for growth
SICILY CHANNEL RESOURCES SUMMARY All Permits at 100% equity
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Nilde Area Contingent Resource
34 mmbo (2C)
Senergy Feb 2016 Independent Assessment
Recently
Awarded Tunisia Resource Potential (note 1)
Contingent resources: 173 mmboe
Kerkouane-1 Prospective resources: 1,027 mmboe
Elissa Lambouka
Dougga West Prospect
226 mmbbls Prospective
Resource
Recent Gazettal
Dougga Discovery
173 mmboe (2C)
Contingent Resource
Note 1. Prospective and contingent resources were calculated using the probabilistic method and are best
estimates. Conversion factor: 1BOE = 5.62 scf. Reporting date: prospective resources 6 Sept 2013,
contingent resources 26 Sept 2012. 5
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STRATEGIC DIRECTION – Current Assets
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– Commercialisation of the Nilde Field Area Resources Sicily Channel
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Tangible low risk resource with proven production performance and substantial 2C resource (34 MMBBLS) that can be converted to reserves at low cost
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Excellent reservoir productivity, moderate water depths, shallow drill depths and low fiscal take yield excellent economics (low break even oil price < US $ 30 per barrel for 1C resource)
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Good candidate for industry funding – oil traders, FPSO contractors
– Explore Parta Permit with Industry Funding Onshore Romania
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Prolific yet under explored oil and gas province – yet to see 3 D seismic
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Large area of low risk, low cost exploration with excellent infrastructure and strong gas pricing
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Poised for 3 D seismic due to permitting success by ADX
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Strong farm in interest due to success in adjacent areas
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Excellent opportunity to secure low cost production with development of balance sheet
Retain Offshore Tunisian Strategic Option
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Retain large contingent and prospective resource position in Kerkouane permit
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Seeking farmout for seismic option or extension of permit
“A viable strategy with large value leverage”
RECENT PROGRESS - Current Assets
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Corporate and Finance
- Placement of 114,286,000 ordinary fully paid shares to raise A$ 800,000 for working capital and to progress definition of Nilde project.
– Commercialisation of the Nilde Field Area Resources Sicily Channel
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Further geological data acquisition and finalisation of geological modelling in preparation for reservoir simulation studies
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Ongoing engagement with floating production offloading and storage vessel (FPSO) providers and commencement of production well drilling and completions studies.
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Engagement with Italian authorities to finalise exploration license ratification and determine development plan submission process.
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Commencement of planning for Nilde Area 3D seismic acquisition – for optimal development well placement
– Explore Parta Permit with Industry Funding Onshore Romania
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Ongoing community engagement and permitting in preparation for 3 D seismic acquisition
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Awaiting ratification of 30 month extension of license to recommence work on the ground
Retain Offshore Tunisian Strategic Option Dougga Discovery Appraisal
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Engagement with Tunisian Authorities ahead of application for license extension
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Re-commencement of Dougga pre feasibility
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CURRENT ASSET PROGRESS
1. Nilde Area Oil Project – Sicily Channel, Italy 2. Parta Exploration Project – Onshore Romania 3. Kerkouane Appraisal Project - Offshore Tunisia
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CURRENT ASSETS: Nilde Oil Field Area
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Background
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1 Abandoned Oil Field with 3 Oil discoveries (all tested)
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Nilde field produced but abandoned prematurely
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Excellent production, seismic and well data base >> high confidence resource
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Rapid low cost conversion to reserves with desk top studies and
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determining preferred development option
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Substantial 34 mmbo audited remaining 2C recoverable resources
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Source: offshoreenergytoday/Saipem
Nailia-1
Nilde-1 bis Norma-1
100 m waterbottom
Nilde-2
Firenze FPSO, on Nilde location from 1982 - 1989
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NILDE OIL FIELD AREA - Contingent Resources
| Contingent1 Resources Volumes (MMstb) 1C2 Estimate 2C2 Estimate 3C2 Estimate |
Contingent1 Resources Volumes (MMstb) 1C2 Estimate 2C2 Estimate 3C2 Estimate |
Contingent1 Resources Volumes (MMstb) 1C2 Estimate 2C2 Estimate 3C2 Estimate |
Contingent1 Resources Volumes (MMstb) 1C2 Estimate 2C2 Estimate 3C2 Estimate |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross | Contingent1 Resources Volumes (MMstb) | |||
| 1C2 Estimate |
2C2 Estimate |
|||
| 3C2 Estimate | ||||
| Nilde Field | 8.7 | 13.1 | 17.8 | |
| Nilde- Bis Discovery | 9.3 | 15.3 | 21.0 | |
| Norma Discovery | 1.2 | 3.9 | 12.9 | |
| Naila Discovery | 1.0 | 1.7 | 2.7 | |
| Total3 | 20.2 | 34.0 | 54.4 | |
Notes
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Contingent Resources: those quantities of petroleum estimated, as of a given date, to be potentially recoverable from known accumulations but, for which the applied project(s) are not yet considered mature enough for commercial development due to one or more contingencies. 2. 1C, 2C, 3C Estimates: in a probabilistic resource size distribution these are the P90 (90% probability), P50, and P10, respectively, for individual opportunities .
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Totals are by arithmetic summation as recommended under PRMS guidelines. This results in a conservative low case total and optimistic high case total.
Source: Senergy, Feb. 2016, Independent Resources Assessment
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Nilde Oil Field
90 meters water depth,
Top oil reservoir at
~1500 m below Sea
Level
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Green vertical lines: wells which tested oil
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NILDE OIL FIELD AREA – Project Attributes
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High Confidence from Extensive Data Base
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Historical production and test data for all undeveloped discoveries provides confidence on reservoir performance and crude quality (light oil, 39⁰ API).
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• Excellent 2 D seismic data quality and good coverage.
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Low Costs and Excellent Fiscal Terms
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High well production well productivities (approx 10,000 BOPD - vertical wells).
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• Shallow drill depths (less than 1700m).
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Modest water depths (approx 90m at Nilde field location) and benign sea conditions.
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Simple, modest royalty based regime (4% royalty, with royalty free production of first 350,000 bbls oil).
Nilde and Nilde Bis Provide Critical Mass for Initial Development
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A substantial 1C resource at Nilde and Nilde-Bis of 18 million barrels with 2C resource of 28 million barrels
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Likely base case option of two production wells and a Floating Production Storage Offloading Unit (FPSO)
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Indicative economics yield breakeven at sub US$30 per barrel oil for 1C resource case and Post tax NPV10 of US $ 160 million and US$ 365 million for the 1C and 2C resource cases respectively at US$ 40 per barrel.
NILDE OIL FIELD - Production History
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Nilde Oil Field produced: 21 mmbls before abandonment Peak production coincided
Initial reserves post sanction in 1979: with water break through
6.3 mmbbls ~10,000 bbls/d
7860 bbls/d and 1988 oil price collapse
US$40 oil @ US$13 oil when
5700 bbls/d
start up acceleration
occurred
4215 bbls/d
Nilde-2: 4 years without
decline @ 9000 bopd
Source: ENI Nilde abandonment report which explicitly stated OIL rates
Depth scale in meters TVDSS Nilde 3-Bis
Nilde 1-Bis
NILDE-2 produced for 5 years at Nilde 6 1973 Discovery well
flat rate of 10,000 BOPD with no
Nilde 2
water
Nilde 5
Nilde 4
NILDE – 6 was added when oil price
dropped to accelerate production.
Resulted in water encroachment
with no water handling on vessel or
lifting capability in wells 1 ~6 km
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NILDE FIELD AREA - Commercialisation
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Recent Progress
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Engaged with FPSO and Drilling Contractors to determine likely development costs, operating costs and preferred development options
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Completed indicative economics based on FPSO option
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Development of 3 D Geological model incorporating extensive drilling, production and seismic data
Project NPV10 versus Oil Price "Nilde Project Indicative Economics"
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US $ Capex per Barrel
$14.0
$12.0
$10.0
$8.0
$6.0
$4.0
$2.0
$-
1C Resource 2C Resource 3C Resource
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US $ Capex per Barrel $600
$14.0 High Value Potential
$500
$12.0
$10.0 $400
$8.0
$6.0 $300
$4.0
$200
$2.0
$- $100
1C Resource 2C Resource 3C Resource
$-
–
Low Capex per barrel even lower $- $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60
with leased FPSO US$ per barrel
1C Resource Case 2C Resource Case
NPV10 US$ Million
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NILDE FIELD AREA – Indicative Economics
Development Scenario Assumptions
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2 production wells centrally located
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Develop Nilde and Nilde Bis only
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FPSO Development – Build Own Operate
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Water depth approx. 100 m
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Well total TVD approx. 1700 m
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Oil export via shuttle tanker(s) to local refinery
Development Cost Summary
- 2 Slanted Development Sub Sea Wells
US$ 30 m per well
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Costs include a tested Appraisal Well – US$ 20.3 m (not used for development)
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Costs also include US$ 13 m of G&G studies, seismic and engineering
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FPSO Cost including Engineeing and Installation = US $130 m
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Operating Costs = US $12 m p.a fixed plus variable component.
CO2 emmission certificate cost assumed at 0.15USD/bbl oil produced
Production Assumptions
1C Production Case - Senergy ultimate recovery 18 mmbbl (Nilde and Nilde Bis only)
Initial rate of 6,000 bbl/d/well, decline 7.5% p.a.and massive water ingress in 5th year
2C Production Case - Senergy ultimate recovery 28.4 mmbbl (Nilde and Nilde Bis only)
Initial rate of 10,000 bbl/d/well, decline 5% p.a.and massive water ingress in 5th year
3C Production Case - Senergy ultimate recovery 38.8 mmbbl (Nilde and Nilde Bis only)
Initial rate of 14,000 bbl/d/well, decline 2.5% p.a.and massive water ingress in 5th year
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NILDE FIELD AREA – Project Definition
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B
80 meter oil column
110 meter oil column
A
Undrained Pool
15 mmbo (2C)
OWC 1600 m TVDSS
Partly Drained Pool (21 mmbo)
13 mmbo (2C) remaining View from South-East
5 km
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3D Geological Model
A 3D visualisation of the reservoir incorporating the reservoir properties which affect oil in place, oil flow and oil recovery from the resources at Nilde and Nilde-Bis. .
Current Way Forward
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Data gathering & 3D geological model development prior to reservoir production simulation modelling - utilise production history to better predict future well performance and optimise subsurface development >> Ongoing
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Progressing fit for purpose and cost effective development solution >> Ongoing
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Engaging with Italian authorities to secure all field data and “Development Plan” submission >> Goal Q4 2016
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Goal is to move current Contingent resources into the Reserves category demonstrating feasibility and commerciality >> Dev Plan Approval
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>> secure
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Engagement with third parties on joint development or funding >>
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industry funding or contractor alliance structures Ongoing
NILDE FIELD AREA – Exploration Potential
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- Mapping of 5 exploration leads defined with existing 2D seismic in the D 363 CR.AX permit with a total best estimate prospective resources of 90 million barrels of oil.
• Planned 3D Seismic has potential to mature Nilde near field lookalike structures for potential future tie-ins
• The ASX Reporting Date for the prospective resources announced is 21 April 2016
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Lead-5
Nailia-1 Lead-4
Nilde-1 bis Norma-1
Nilde-2
Lead-3
Lead-1
Lead-2
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Prospective Resources for Exploration Leads
| D 363 CR.AX Permit Prospective Resources MMb (Recoverable) | D 363 CR.AX Permit Prospective Resources MMb (Recoverable) | D 363 CR.AX Permit Prospective Resources MMb (Recoverable) | D 363 CR.AX Permit Prospective Resources MMb (Recoverable) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Location Low Best High |
|||
| Lead 1 "Lippone Due" | 8 | 13 | 20 |
| Lead 2 "Nunzia Updip" | 6 | 12 | 21 |
| Lead 3 | 5 | 14 | 30 |
| Lead 4 | 9 | 20 | 49 |
| Lead 5 | 12 | 31 | 81 |
| Total Permit 40 90 201 |
PROSPECTIVE RESOURCES & DEFINITIONS The estimates have been prepared by the company in accordance with the definitions and guidelines set forth in the Petroleum Resources Management System, 2011 approved by the Society of Petroleum Engineer. Prospective Resource estimates are for recoverable volumes and unless otherwise stated this report quotes Best Estimates. The estimates are unrisked and have not been adjusted for both an associated chance of discovery and a chance of development.
NILDE AREA CURRENT FOCUS
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Finalise geotechnical studies, reservoir engineering studies and development drilling design work to establish a high confidence oil volume and optimal subsurface development plan for the Nilde field redevelopment (Nilde and Nilde Bis).
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Undertake development feasibility studies to establish a fit for purpose development option for the processing, storage and offloading of Nilde oil.
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Work with FPSO contractors to deliver a leased production solution and enable the timely submission of a “Field Development Plan” to the Italian Authorities.
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Undertake the licensing and planning of a 3D seismic program over the Nilde Area discoveries and identified exploration potential to optimise Nilde development well placement, further define near field discoveries and mature exploration prospects
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Establish the technical viability and commerciality of Nilde development to move current to reserves . contingent resources
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Attract third party funding to asset and the company once the value of the asset has been enhanced through project de risking.
CURRENT ASSETS – Parta Permit Progress
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30 months extension of first exploration phase agreed with NAMR, government ratification pending
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2 D seismic acquired indicating excellent prospectivity
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Extensive landowner work to secure access resulting in community support and petroleum law is now applied as an efficient default process in local courts to grant land access rapidly.
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As a result 3D seismic now can be acquired
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for “shooting fish in a barrel” prospects close to producing fields
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3D area
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PARTA 3D SEISMIC IS A GAME CHANGER “Shooting Fish in a barrel”
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S
PINCHOUT PINCHOUT tested
Oil production
TRAPSTRAPS 1.2 mmscf/d
Ch
IVb_
IVa
IVc_
IVb_
Va IVc_
TS2
VI
Vc
BLOW OUT
VIII
Oil & Gas charge proven
8 sqkm trap area
tested
Multi – horizon plays proven 1.2 mmscf/d
Use 3D seismic to drill sweet spots
Horizon IVb
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PARTA & ROMANIA CURRENT FOCUS
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Parta Permit Exploration
Finalise landowner access arrangements in preparation for 3D seismic acquisition once ratification of license extension is confirmed. Re engage with potential farminees.
Romanian Production Opportunities
The low oil price has created momentum in a market dominated by two national companies (Romgaz & Petrom). There are a number of production opportunities which may provide ADX with low cost and low risk production cash flow.
ADX is well placed to leverage local knowledge and relationships to gain access to production opportunities.
Seeking low cost, low risk production in areas we know well >> Compliment current assets with low operating cost, production cash flow >> Leverage value development at Nilde to secure other assets.
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KERKOUANE PERMIT – Offshore Tunisia
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Nilde oil field
Dougga West (oil)
Prospect
227 mmboe Best case
Prospective Resource
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An offshore license area encompassing approx. 5,000 km² in a proven hydrocarbon province.
The permit offers several very large resource size prospects and the Dougga appraisal opportunity covered by high quality 3D seismic.
The current oil price environment demands a focus on assets which can be commercialised at lower oil prices. Forward plan is to extend the license and focus on Dougga commercialisation through Capex . reduction and fiscal improvement
Dougga Gas Condensate Discovery 220 mmboe 2C Resource + Best Est. Prospective Resource
| GROSS CONTINGENT + PROSPECTIVE RESOURCES | C1+LOW | C2+BEST | C3+HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total RECOVERABLE MMBOE Total Sales Gas recoverable[bcf] |
127 325 |
220 570 |
333 862 |
| Total Condensate Recoverable[mmbbls] | 50 | 87 | 131 |
| Total LPG Recoverable[mmbbls] | 16 | 29 | 45 |
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Dougga Appraisal - Resources Summary Abiodhydrocarbon gross pay thickness map [m] A Dougga-1 B
ASX release 14 Nov 2014 thin Abiodreservoir
A
B
thick Abiod
thick Abiod
reservoir 1 10km reservoir 2 thick Abiodreservoir 1 thin Abiodreservoir thick Abiodreservoir 2
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KERKOUANE CURRENT FOCUS
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Kerkouane Permit Extension
Seeking to retain option over large resource base at Dougga by securing permit extension.
Dougga Commerciality Studies
Seek to exchange exploration focussed 3D seismic for Dougga focussed prefeasibility studies.
Seek to define a potentially commercial development at Dougga through a substantial capital cost reduction.
Position asset for oil price recovery and potential fiscal relaxation.
Note: ADX believes a subsea tie back (40 Kms) to an onshore gas plant would deliver significant capital and operating cost reductions for the Dougga discovery compared to the current development option which includes offshore gas treatment facilities.
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IMMEDIATE ACTIVITY – Outlook for 2016
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1. Italy – Nilde area:
Finalise development plan for a Nilde redevelopment and move contingent resources into reserves, establishing commerciality and value. Engage interested parties for industry finance and joint development
2. Romania - Parta:
Prepare with JV partner RAG for 3D seismic acquisition during the year and secure industry funding via joint farm out.
3. Tunisia – Kerkouane:
Retain option over large contingent resource base and add value to Dougga gas condensate discovery through studies demonstrating significant capital cost and operating cost reduction.
4. Low Cost Portfolio Enhancement in Core Areas
Take advantage of the current urgency for large E&P operators to divest from non core, small to medium sized (producing) assets in Romania, Germany and Italy.
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Ian Tchacos Executive Chairman Paul Fink Chief Executive
Head Office: Level 2, Suite 14 210 Bagot Road, Subiaco, WA, 6008 Tel: 61 8 9381 4266 Fax: 61 8 9381 4766 Website www.adxenergy.com.au Email [email protected] ASX Code ADX
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