AI Terminal

MODULE: AI_ANALYST
Interactive Q&A, Risk Assessment, Summarization
MODULE: DATA_EXTRACT
Excel Export, XBRL Parsing, Table Digitization
MODULE: PEER_COMP
Sector Benchmarking, Sentiment Analysis
SYSTEM ACCESS LOCKED
Authenticate / Register Log In

TÜPRAŞ-TÜRKİYE PETROL RAFİNERİLERİ A.Ş.

Investor Presentation Apr 29, 2025

5963_rns_2025-04-29_b4a1bc29-7eeb-4187-8227-814dd5507119.pdf

Investor Presentation

Open in Viewer

Opens in native device viewer

Strategic Transition Plan – 2025 Update

Disclaimer

This presentation includes forward-looking statements reflecting the management's current views on certain future events. Statements may include terms like 'will', 'aim', 'expects', 'progress', 'estimate', 'anticipates', 'intends', 'believes', 'vision', 'ambition', 'target', 'seek', 'goal', 'plan', 'potential', 'try', 'need to', 'work towards', 'future', 'become', 'introduce', 'transform', 'outcome', 'project', 'projections', 'deliver', 'evolve', 'develop', 'forwards', 'pioneer', 'going to', 'long-term', 'may', 'milestone', 'objectives', 'outlook', 'probably', 'continue', 'projected', 'achieve', or the negative of these terms or similar expressions to identify such statements. These are based on current expectations, plans, and assumptions considering the company's experience and perceptions of historical trends, current conditions, expected future developments, and other factors believed appropriate at the time. Although these statements are thought to be reasonable, they may change due to variables and underlying assumptions, potentially causing actual results to differ significantly. Readers should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements.

IAS 29 inflation accounting provisions apply only to historical financial data in this presentation. Forward-looking statements, projections or estimates presented here do not consider IAS 29 adjustments.

Tupras does not commit to updating any statements, information, or data. Neither Tüpraş nor any director, manager, employee, or other person will be liable for any cost or loss arising from the use of this presentation.

Global Energy Outlook: What Has Changed Since 2021?

Since Paris Agreement in 2014, 7% increase in global carbon emissions…

…CO2 budget for meeting 1.5oC target depleted

EV demand growth weakened.

Türkiye's Transportation Energy Demand – 2025 Update

Strategy www.tupras.com.tr

Sustainable Refining

Sustainable Refining - Tüpraş

2021 STP Targets (Cumulative)

  • 2022-35 Capex: ~2.3 bn \$
  • 2022-35 EBITDA: ~13 bn \$

2025 STP Targets* (Cumulative)

  • 2025-35 Capex: ~3.9 bn \$
  • 2025-35 EBITDA: ~13 bn \$

Refining to remain as a major EBITDA contributor.

ENERGY EFFICIENCY PROJECTS

  • ENERGY INTENSITY TARGET OF 88.7 BY 2030 (2021 STP: 91.2)
  • 2024 ENERGY INTENSITY ACHIEVED AT : 92.3 – 10 POINTS IMPROVEMENT SINCE BASE YEAR OF 2017.
  • OUR CAPEX INCLUDES TRANSFORMATION IN FLEET MODERNIZATION ACROSS OUR LOGISTICS SUBSIDIARIES FOR ENERGY EFFICIENCY.

CO2 DECARBONIZATION AND MODERNIZATION PROJECTS

  • A REDUCTION OF 1.1 MILLION TONS OF CO2 ANNUALLY COMPARED TO 2017 BY 2024.
  • TECHNICAL AND FINANCIAL EVALUATION OF ELECTRIFICATION PROJECTS CONTINUE.

  • ENSURE EXISTING ASSETS OPERATE AT MAXIMUM POTENTIAL.
  • BROADEN OUR PORTFOLIO WITH LIGHTER CHEMICAL PRODUCTS.
  • NO NEW REFINING OR CONVERSION CAPACITY INVESTMENTS.

Sustainable Refining – Improving Energy Efficiency and Sustainability Scores

Tüpraş Energy Intensity Index Evolution

Progress in Our Sustainability Ratings

2020 Current Improvement
compared to
2020 (%)
Sector
Average
17 55 224 35
2.2 3.9 77 2.9
40 55 38 42
37.3 24.9 33 -
3.9 4.8 23 5.6
67.6 77 14 -
Climate
Change
- B B
Water
Security
- B C
  • With higher emphasis on efficiency, we increase out 2030 EII target from 91.2 to 88.7.
  • 1 point improvement in EII results in a current annual cost saving of ~10 m\$*

Zero Carbon Electricity

Zero Carbon Electricity – Market Outlook

Installed Capacity of Türkiye (GW)

Coal Natural Gas Nuclear HEPP WPP SPP Other

  • Renewable energy installed capacity in Türkiye has reached to 63 GW, accounting 57% of the total installed capacity.
  • Türkiye ranks 11th in the world and 5th in Europe in terms of installed renewable power capacity.
  • According to National Energy Plan, nuclear energy installed capacity will reach 2.4GW in 2025, 4.8GW in 2030, and 7.2GW in 2035.

Türkiye Spot Electricity Price (\$/MWh)

Strategy www.tupras.com.tr

Zero Carbon Electricity – Tüpraş

2021 STP Targets (Cumulative)

  • 2022-35 Capex: ~1.3 bn \$
  • 2022-35 EBITDA: ~400 mn \$

2025 STP Targets* (Cumulative)

  • 2025-35 Capex: ~2.8 bn \$
  • 2025-35 EBITDA: ~2.0 bn \$
  • With regulator offering new licenses for solar and wind; along with international capacity expansion our previous 2030 target will be reached by 2027.
  • Due to increase in equipment prices as well as brought forward plan, our capex for this business line has more than doubled.
  • Compared to 2021 STP, due to the increased pace towards electrification, we anticipate that our commercial electricity business will experience significant growth.
  • Zero Carbon Electricity continues to generate EBITDA via sales to grid and will power green hydrogen electrolyzers once they are installed.
  • We maintain 50/50 production and PPA model to optimize COGS/Capex balance for H2 production.
  • Continue to evaluate various types of generation technologies such as hydro, solar and wind and nuclear MMR/SMRs.

SAF – Market Outlook

Global SAF Demand & Supply (mton)

Regulations

  • Global: IATA 2050 net zero target and CORSIA 2021-35 carbon neutral international flights target.
  • Europe: Blending obligation of 2% in 2025, 6% in 2030 and 70% in 2050 with REDD-II directive.
  • USA: The Clean Fuel Production Credit is a newly established tax credit for clean fuel production available beginning January 1, 2025.
  • Türkiye: [Draft] A draft regulation is being worked on to adopt CORSIA/ICAO targets to reduce aviation emissions by 5% by 2030.
HEFA Alcohol-to-Jet
(AtJ)
Power-to-Liquid
(e-kerosene)
Opportunities Reliable, proven
scalable technology
A potential in the mid run A potential in the long-term
based on feasible electricity
access
Difficulties Limited feedstock Relatively high cost of
feedstock
Cheap renewable electricity,
water, CO2
Feasibility Commercial, feasible Commercial in pilot scale Under development
Feedstock Discarded oils, Oils of
energy plants
Second generation alcohols Renewable electricity, water
and CO2
GHG emission
decrease
(relative to the fossil
jet fuel)
70-85% 82-94% 85-100%

SAF - Tüpraş

2021 STP Targets (Cumulative)

  • 2022-35 Capex: ~600 mn \$
  • 2022-35 EBITDA: ~1.1 bn \$

2025 STP Targets* (Cumulative)

  • 2025-35 Capex: ~800 mn \$
  • 2025-35 EBITDA: ~1.9 bn \$
  • With the progression of our engineering studies, we are on track to build up a new unit in İzmir, instead of converting an existing one. Studies initiated to build an additional unit in another site.
  • Improvement in EBITDA projections is a result of stronger SAF prices versus our 2021 price assumptions.
  • We have a target of SAF production with 400 kton/year capacity with 75% SAF yield. We have also secured feedstock for this SAF capacity with a 10-year agreement.
  • We will begin supplying blended SAF to the market by 2026, produced via co-processing.
  • We continue to evaluate SAF production technologies including Alcohol-to-Jet for additional capacity.
  • Participating in 3 EU projects (Sunfusion, Fuel-Up and ICO2NIC) focused on developing alternative SAF production technologies using various feedstocks.

Green Hydrogen - Market Outlook

• On average, capex amounts increased by 4 times versus our 2021 STP assumptions.

Unit Capex Expectations for H2 Production Global Low-Carbon H2 Demand, Base Scenario

• Demand for Green H2 shows only a limited downfall in the new projections.

Green Hydrogen - Tüpraş

1,000 350 ELECTROLYZER CAPACITY

2030 Capacity 2035 Capacity 2021 Plan 2025 plan

  • In commercial H2 , we continue to advance our investments successfully aligning with our growth targets.
  • As a result, with Green H2 electrolyzer capex increasing by 4 times, our green hydrogen projects at our refineries have been spread over the long term.
  • Starting from 2030, we will use Green H2 in SAF production in order to capture a potential price premium.
  • Continue to evaluate electrolyzer types through our venture arm to companies such as Vergady, iongenics, IONOMR.
  • A new R&D center is formed within Koç University (KUHytech) for H2 technologies.

Strategic Transition Plan

Strategic Transition Plan – Emission Reduction

We continue to invest in energy efficiency & decarbonization projects, green hydrogen & zero carbon electricity usage in refining to reduce scope 1 & 2 emissions

Financial Projections

Strategic Transition Plan - Financials

Mn \$

Hizmete Özel / Confidential

Annual EBITDA*

Strategy www.tupras.com.tr * IAS 29 adjustments are not applied.

Strategic Transition Plan - Financials

Cumulative Cash Flow Bridge** (2025-35, bn \$)

  • 80% dividend payout continues with our updated plan
  • Net Debt/EBITDA will remain below 2.0x
  • Capex/EBITDA will remain below 0.5x

(*) Consists of net additional funding and related financial expenses

(**) IAS 29 adjustments are not applied.

Hizmete Özel / Confidential

  • According to our 2021 STP, the anticipated dividend between 2022-2035 was around \$5 billion, half of which was distributed in the first two years (2023: 1.2 billion USD / 2024: 1.3 billion USD)
  • The revised plan projects a dividend payment of around 6 billion USD for 2025- 2035, aligning with our 80% payout ratio as per our dividend policy.

Strategy

www.tupras.com.tr

Telekonferans Sunumu 22

Hizmete Özel / Confidential www.tupras.com.tr 29/04/2025

Talk to a Data Expert

Have a question? We'll get back to you promptly.