Investor Presentation • Sep 11, 2022
Investor Presentation
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INDEPENDENT EQUITY RESEARCH

Approaching technological maturity; end of pilot in Jerusalem; started pilot in the US; continued technological progress; decreased operating loss compared to H1 2021; price target is updated to NIS 8.6.
Axilion is an artificial intelligence (AI) software company that develops AI-based systems to better manage traffic mobility in cities, thereby reducing their carbon footprint and improving urban traffic safety.
Strategy and business model - The company conducts pilots for its X Way Pulse product with Microsoft Azure as a strategic partner. Axilion is in the stage of technological feasibility and building the business model, and before the sales stage. Therefore, there is also a certain risk involved in commercializing the company's services. We identify difficulty in closing deals as the company's customers are mainly institutions (municipalities, etc.), characterized by relatively long sale cycles. Due to the Covid-19 outbreak, the mentioned customers, especially in the US market, are focusing their resources on issues related to health and fighting the coronavirus, rather than issues that were more on the agenda in the past like urban transport. Price target is update to NIS 8.6.
We will continue to monitor the company's progress in the coming months, and will update our forecast in line with company updates.

Lead Analyst Dr. Tiran Rothman [email protected] Tel.: +972-9-9502888
11.09.2022
| Development goals | X Way tech | Status | Development duration |
Investment needed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| - Continue AI training to analyze transportation insights, in different locations. |
X Way Pulse monitoring system |
Completed | Completed in H1 2022 |
NIS 2M |
| - Continue building a simulation model full of hinges (adding additional capabilities). - Conducting a pilot in a traffic corridor characterized by traffic congestion. |
X Way Twin Digital coordination system |
- Completed proof of feasibility in the Rabin highway as part of the Jerusalem pilot. - Completed conversion to American transport measures. |
January – December 2022 |
NIS 4M |
| - Optimization of axis parameters. - Fully automatic planning for the entire traffic corridor. |
X Way Neural Optimization system and automatic planning of traffic light programs |
Completed proof of performance improvement in the Rabin highway as part of Jerusalem pilot. |
January – December 2022 |
NIS 7M |
| Pilot | Description | Status | Exp. completion date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Italy France |
A pilot of the company's technological system to improve the transportation system in the city for the benefit of the residents and traffic users, while providing effective indications and real-time transportation recommendations through the company's digital systems. |
Successfully completed |
During H1 2022 |
| Jerusalem | Simulation of the traffic light plans in the Rabin highway in the morning in order to reduce traffic congestion and pollutant emissions. |
Successfully completed |
During H1 2022 |
| US | A multi-modal pilot in a complex and dense traffic corridor to complete the development of the X Way product. |
Phase 1 | During 2023 |
In conclusion, the company continues to develop its products, continuing to successfully complete its pilots in an effort to examine the feasibility of its products and their integration in transportation systems in various cities and is working to strengthen its business development capabilities. In our view, the decline in Axilion's market value in recent months reflects a reduction in the expectations gap between the company and the market, which expected the company to reach technological and business achievements at an earlier stage.
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Axilion 11.09.2022
A significant share of global fossil fuel-based energy generation goes to the transportation sector. The combustion of fossil fuels, such as gasoline and diesel, releases carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases (GHG), causing adverse environmental impacts, such as global warming and air pollution, that can result in respiratory illness in humans. Climate change due to global warming also has other, far more serious, consequences, such as disrupted monsoons (threatening the global food supply chain) and increased occurrences of natural disasters, such as drought. In 2020, in the United States alone, GHG emissions from the transportation sector accounted for 28% of total U.S. GHG emissions1 , making it the largest contributor to U.S. GHG emissions.
Driven by stringent environmental norms and increasing environmental awareness, industry participants across the globe have begun adopting technology solutions that enable them to adhere to zero-emission protocols. Electrification of the transportation sector is considered to be an important stepping stone towards a sustainable transportation sector; however, the electrification process entails its own cost and infrastructure-related challenges. Another approach towards reducing the carbon footprint of transportation networks is establishing congestion-free road networks and increasing public transportation utilization, as the carbon footprint per person traveling via public transportation is much lower than that per person traveling via private vehicle.
The traditional method of building interchanges, highways, highways and subways is expensive and time consuming. An alternative solution, consistent with the Fourth Industrial Revolution, is the automation of traditional industrial practices using smart, modern technological solutions. That is, the development of intelligent traffic management systems based on artificial intelligence, with a high adaptability to changes, capable of automatically managing the flow of traffic and prioritizing vehicles with fixed timetables (especially public transport). There is a real need for a traffic management system that is able to accurately predict traffic patterns in order to outline the optimal traffic light plan for the various cities. AI and deep reinforcement learning technology are ideal candidates for creating the possibility of establishing such smart traffic management systems.
1 Source: United States Environmental Protection Agency

Technology for Autonomous Mobility Optimization Saving time and resources, transforming the transportation network without costly infrastructure changes
Deep Reinforcement Learning

Utilizing an AI Mobile Edge Camera, Axilion's technology solution (X Way Suite) is able to capture the roadtraffic network and convert the collected data into actionable insights via X Way Suite's AI cloud services. The idea is to leverage the data collected from AI-based cameras via the proprietary trained neural network to determine the optimum traffic signal schedule across the network.
X Way Suite's advanced algorithms continuously analyze the incoming data from dashboard cameras and, in parallel, simulate the entire city's transportation network via a digital twin, where solutions such as deep reinforcement learning AI technology are used to run multiple tests and determine the most efficient traffic signal schedule for multiple intersections. Data collected from the cameras are streamed through Microsoft Azure's IoT hub, where Azure Edge's encryption technology is utilized for data protection and enhanced cyber security.


In addition to the above, the developed system leverages the fixed route of the public transportation system and onboard cameras to dynamically track the traffic pattern on a real-time basis and to change traffic light signals, prioritizing the movement of public transportation to reduce travel time.
The digitization of public transportation schedules and coordination with traffic signals creates a far more efficient public transportation network, where users can track the entire schedule from mobile apps or screens at bus stops, and plan their travel accordingly. In the long run, faster and more efficient public transportation networks aid in changing commuter preferences toward public transportation over private vehicles, thereby directly reducing the carbon footprint of the transportation network.
We view Axilion as a great opportunity for those seeking to invest in sustainable and smart mobility and specifically in a primary element of traffic flow management.
Axilion (TLV: AILN) hereafter "the Company" and/or "Axilion" is a publicly-traded AI software company headquartered in Israel and has offices in Israel, US, UAE, and Europe. The company focuses on developing AIbased software systems to better manage traffic mobility in cities, thereby reducing the carbon footprint and improved safety. In recent years, the company has been successful in implementing as well as in piloting its software solutions across multiple geographies: Israel, France, Switzerland, the United Arab Emirates, the city of Jerusalem, and the United States. In Israel, US, and Europe alone Axilion's solutions have been deployed at more than 1,000 traffic intersections.
The company's vision has primarily been towards leveraging AI capabilities to reduce the carbon emissions of the transportation sector. Traffic congestion is a challenge that contributes to millions of dollars in lost time and waste fuel across the globe. Further, the issue of traffic congestion is more frequent in urban centres than in rural settings primarily due to a larger number of private vehicles, commercial vehicles, and sometimes also due to heavyweight vehicles. Axilion has developed its X Way Suite specifically to address the challenges faced by urban centres with minimum required investment. The X Way cloud services are based on more than 10 years of the company's experience in developing and implementing traffic light program planning software - TransEm (the company's previous generation of products), which is used by more than 100 traffic engineers in Israel and around the world.
The company deals via Microsoft's existing agreement with government bodies where the Axilion X Way suite is provided as an add-on solution. For every camera installed, Axilion generates about USD 150-600 per month of Azure credit depending upon data requirements. Further, Axilion charges the city for managing the traffic patterns, whereas it takes a share of 50% of the cost incurred to the city for utilizing Microsoft Azure.
Additionally, the developed system is hardware agnostic and in the coming years is likely to be integrated with multiple types of sensors, which might be already present in a city's transportation infrastructure (stand-alone pedestrian traffic signals, speed gun detectors, and others) to ensure that at the least all the vehicles with a predefined route faces as fewer red lights as possible. For instance, the X Way Suite has ensured that the Light Rail in Jerusalem always passes through the green light, all the while taking pedestrian safety under
consideration. The end result was that the Jerusalem average commute time drastically dropped to 42 minutes from the previous 80 minutes, headway reduced to 6 minutes and the ridership increased by as much as 387.4%.
Axilion has developed artificial intelligence and deep learning traffic management technology through comprehensive research, and has perfected the system by conducting multiple tests in a variety of cities. In addition, the company actively cooperates with research institutes such as the Technion, Tel Aviv University and the Innovation Authority, for the ongoing development of the Suite X Way solution, which is based on TransEm software for designing traffic lights of the company.



Unlike autonomous vehicles that analyze the data input coming from multiple hardware units, which are physically located in the vehicle like LIDAR, RADAR and other processing units, the X Way package optimizes traffic flow pattern without changes to physical infrastructure and without any expensive hardware installation. An initial calibration of the traffic corridor requires the installation of a dashboard camera (equipped with a GPS sensor and a wireless connection) that enables real-time video analysis. In general, it is necessary to install a limited number of cameras for each new traffic corridor in order to calibrate the digital twin.
Axilion's technology contributes to cities by reducing average travel time, improving pedestrian safety, reducing air pollution, reducing stopping time at red lights, promoting the transition to using public transport, and thus improving quality of life.
Deep Reinforcement Learning AI Technology
Maximize Existing Traffic Infrastructure
Real-Time, Adaptive Control



Smart & Scalable Hardware Agnostic Efficient Simulation via Digital Twin
The company has three SaaS service offerings:
Cloud-based data collection system, which interacts with traffic infrastructure such as traffic light controllers, detectors, traffic cameras, etc. In most cases - the data required for the system is already processed (ie a camera with the ability to count traffic). If the available data is not pre-processed, the company uses cloud-based AI to extract the required information. As of the date of the report, the company has successfully completed and completed two completed pilots, in which the capabilities of the system were verified.



Modeling of the transportation network in the city while constantly calibrating the model using the latest traffic counts and destination-destination matrix that are obtained from the monitoring system. The system is characterized by microsimulation, which allows a drop to the level of each vehicle at a resolution of every second. The system is cloud-based, and allows a large number of twins to run in parallel in a short time.
The computational efficiency makes it possible not only to assess the delays and level of service obtained for traffic light plans and different traffic conditions but also to optimize the various parameters and implement them in the traffic light plan. The simulation is capable of handling the various road users, on public transport, in a network of coordinated adjacent nodes including functions of transmitting information of detectors between the nodes, offsets, green waves in one or more directions of movement. Computational efficiency enables the system to offer real-time solutions that enable immediate responses to traffic challenges as well as forecasting future traffic conditions. The simulation is automatically calibrated based on data and metrics generated from the monitoring system.

A system of recommendations that provides alternative traffic light plans for the city traffic light network based on a dynamic and distributed measurement of the levels of demand, the various vehicles, the capacity of the roads and the nature of the drivers' driving. The system is based on advanced reinforcement learning technology. This system is a holistic system and is another tier on the monitoring system and the digital twin system. The system provides an end-to-end solution for the entire process of planning traffic light plans for all stages from A to T. The optimization is carried out using unique algorithms in Deep Reinforcement Learning methods. The system receives as input the current traffic light plans and evaluates the situation, the quantities of vehicles and the nature of the traffic in the city at different times, using sensors installed on vehicles and scanning the traffic in the city. Based on this input, the system performs an optimization process aimed at
flowing traffic in accordance with city policy. Traffic policy may vary from city to city and between different areas of the city, depending on the purpose of the optimization that can be planned (for example - reducing general traffic congestion, prioritizing public transportation, reducing pollutant emissions). And at the end of the process, alternative traffic light plans are obtained, accompanied by a traffic simulation through which the quality of the solution can be examined. This system is in the research and development phase.
As of the date of the report, the company is simultaneously working to complete the experiments for the X Way system, and also from the company's databases it will be possible to build, together with the company's customers, a variety of services / products based on the company's databases.


Haifa was one of the first cities to adopt Axilion's TransEm, and the city upgraded its Metronit bus rapid transport (BRT) network by adopting Axilion's X Way Suite for 200 traffic lights along the bus route, for continuous and automated optimization of the traffic flow. In a short period, the BRT network witnessed roughly a two-fold increase in ridership (115,000 travellers from a previous 60,000 travellers per day), faster commute (average traveling speed of buses increased from 20 kilometres per hour or kmph to 26 kmph, whereas the average travel time decreased from 73 minutes to 58 minutes), less congestion, and enhanced pedestrian safety.
In addition to the above, there was a drop of 11% in the private vehicle utilization, an estimated annual savings of USD 7 million in operations and maintenance, along with an estimated 140,000 tons of annual CO2 emissions avoided.
The tram network in the city of Jerusalem updated its 273 intersection points by Axilion TransEm for enhanced traffic management.
| Before | After Benefits |
||
|---|---|---|---|
| Travel time | 80 min | 42 min | 47% |
| Number of trams required | 32 | 21 | 34% |
| Tram frequency (headway) | 15 min | 5 min | 66% |
| Number of Passengers | 40,000 | 200,000 | 400% |

Artificial Intelligence has a strong potential to overcome the deficiencies in the automotive sector and provide significant benefits in terms of improved productivity and added revenue. AI acts as a crucial technology enabler in transforming every aspect of the automotive value chain starting from research and development to enhancing the car driving experience. In the automotive sector, a
major chunk of the innovations is focused at streamlining the in-vehicle driving experience, whereas just a few are focused at the overall scenario of smart traffic management.
Traffic congestion is a problem faced by both the developing as well as developed economies, where AI powered systems for managing traffic lights is expected to be the most ideal solution due to its massive data handling and analysis capabilities. AI is considered to be a promising technology solution for transport authorities to achieve rapid improvements in relieving traffic congestion, improved travel time, and improved utilization of their assets for enhanced revenue generation, productivity, and lower carbon footprint. Among the prominent players specifically catering towards technology solutions streamlining traffic flow across the city are: Nexar (Israel), Mobileye (Israel), Moovit (Israel), C3 AI (United States), Google WAZE (Israel), NoTraffic (United States). Rapid Flow Technologies LLC (United States), FLIR Systems Inc. (United States), Alibaba Cloud City Brain (China), Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson (Sweden), and AlndraLabs (India) amongst others.
The global artificial intelligence (AI) market is expected to grow from US\$157.2 billion in 2020 to US\$386.1 billion by 2025, at a CAGR of 19.7%. The rapid growth in the volume of data being generated along with the increasing deployment of cloud-based computing platforms is fueling AI adoption across various industry verticals including automotive, transportation, retail, telecom, healthcare, etc.
Axilion is well placed to address the emerging need of smart traffic management systems. The company's X Way Suite combines data analytics (data gathered via AI based cameras), digital twin, and a deep learning AI technology platform, to achieve a highly autonomous and adaptive traffic management system.
The AI market includes revenue from three technology sub-segments – Software, Hardware, Services. Software is the largest AI technology segment delivering close to 80% of all AI revenue.

The global computer vision market is expected to grow from US\$14.1 billion in 2020 to US\$20.2 billion by 2025, at a CAGR of 7.5%. The increasing application of computer vision technology in the automotive and transportation industry is one of the key growth drivers. The emergence of self-driving cars equipped with advanced cameras and LiDAR sensors leverages computer vision to have a safe ride.
Axilion's proprietary dashboard cameras are equipped with GPS and wireless, which enables a real-time data transfer. Through Microsoft azure, Axilion uses its video analysis tool for data collection and analysis for an adaptive and autonomous traffic management system.


The global AI software market in transportation industry is expected to grow from US\$2.1 billion in 2020 to US\$4.7 billion by 2025, at a CAGR of 17.5%.


Deep learning holds the highest share of around 67% in the global AI transportation market 2020. Deep learning algorithms analyze the hidden patterns effectively in huge volume of data and assist the transportation industry to overcome the traffic issues.
Further, deep learning is a fully automated technique which offers more accuracy when compared with the traditional methods. Computer vision accounts for 19% share of the global AI transportation market and it is primarily used to enable the traffic management system to accurately capture images and analyze them under a wide variety of conditions such as bad weather and lighting, tracking vehicles at high speed and extremely congested traffic jams.
There is a great demand on global markets to reduce carbon emission/carbon capture solutions. All pathways that limit global warming to 1.5°C project the use of carbon dioxide removal on the order of 100-1000 Gigatons over the 21st century. It is projected that CO2 removal with the right policy support will become the world's biggest market. The climate math propounded by various agencies suggests a need for 10-20 Gt CO2 per year. At an average cost of US\$50-100/ton for capture and removal, that creates an industry at least thrice as large as the current size of the Oil and Gas industry.
Tackling the carbon challenge is complex. The world emits an average of 52 Gt CO2e/yr. However, the cost of capturing that carbon is enormous
To achieve the hypothetical net-zero, viz. to remove almost the entirety of 50+ Gt CO2 of annual emissions, the world has to spend at least \$85 trillion annually (i.e., ~6% of the world GDP). If the world achieves a sub \$50/t cost of carbon capture, the world will still ~2.5% of its GDP but makes the entire process more viable.
As discussed earlier, Axilion's solutions help to reduce carbon emissions significantly. In our view, the company could receive a premium for its services due to its carbon-reducing effect.
We based our valuation on a top-down, market benchmark analysis. Observing Axilion market positioning we identified 89 similar companies in terms of activity (AI & ML) and growth stage and excluded outliers from our sample. The average post-money valuation for these similar deals is \$453.7M (See appendix 1 of our initiation of coverage report for the full data set). Below we present a sample of the 10 top AI deals:
| Company Name |
Description | Deal Date | Deal Type | Pre money Valuation (million, USD) |
Post Valuation (million, USD) |
Country |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pony.ai | Developer of an autonomous driving technology intended to facilitate manufacturing of automated vehicles. |
07-Feb-2021 | Later Stage VC |
4,933 | 5,300 | United States |
| C3.ai | C3.ai Inc is an enterprise artificial intelligence company. | 09-Dec-2020 | IPO | 3,375 | 4,026 | United States |
| Luminar | Luminar Technologies Inc is an autonomous vehicle sensor and software company. |
02-Dec-2020 | Reverse Merger |
2,994 | 3,400 | United States |
| SentinelOne | Developer of automated cybersecurity software designed to protect devices and servers against malware and threats. |
11-Nov-2020 | Later Stage VC |
2,733 | 3,000 | United States |
| Verafin | Developer of cloud-based fraud detection and anti-money laundering software. |
11-Feb-2021 | Merger/ Acquisition |
2,750 | Canada | |
| Sumo Logic | Sumo Logic Inc is a software company. | 17-Sep-2020 | IPO | 1,846 | 2,171 | United States |
| Farmer's Business Network |
Farmers Business Network is a provider of a farmer-to farmer agronomic information network. |
03-Aug-2020 | Later Stage VC |
1,600 | 1,800 | United States |
| Lookout | Developer of cloud-based security software designed to detect mobile threats and improve mobile security. |
01-Mar-2020 | Later Stage VC |
1,701 | 1,751 | United States |
| Harness | Developer of a delivery-as-a-service platform created to simplify the software delivery process. |
06-Jan-2021 | Later Stage VC |
1,615 | 1,700 | United States |
| Verkada | Manufacturer of enterprise security cameras designed to offer enterprise physical security services. |
29-Jan-2020 | Later Stage VC |
1,520 | 1,600 | United States |
We also view AI and Mobility tech firms since 2020 and found that the median post money valuation is \$526.2M, as we present below some of the companies2 :
| Post Valuation (Median): \$526.20M Technology Services |
|||
|---|---|---|---|
| >> 2019 >> 9 2011 >> 10 (ETE I E > 0 20:20 0 0 02:20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 |
Axilion is now after the technological feasibility phase and before the significant sales phase of projects such as those it closed in Haifa and Jerusalem. Therefore, at this stage, we examine the company's value according to similar deals. Based on the aforementioned data and analysis, we estimate Axilion's share price target to be in the range of NIS 15.0 and NIS 16.6, with a mean of NIS 15.8.
2 Source: Pitchbook (showing 38 of 468 companies).
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