Investor Presentation • Mar 17, 2022
Investor Presentation
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17 March 2022
The information contained in this presentation has been prepared by Ence Energía y Celulosa, S.A. (hereinafter, "Ence").
This presentation includes data relating to future forecasts. Any data included in this presentation which differ from other data based on historical information, including, in a merely expository manner, those which refer to the financial situation of Ence, its business strategy, estimated investments, management plans, and objectives related to future operations, as well as those which include the words "anticipate", "believe", "estimate", "consider", "expect" and other similar expressions, are data related to future situations and therefore have various inherent risks, both known and unknown, and possess an element of uncertainty, which can lead to the situation and results both of Ence and its sector differing significantly from those expressly or implicitly noted in said data relating to future forecasts.
The aforementioned data relating to future forecasts are based on numerous assumptions regarding the current and future business strategy of Ence and the environment in which it expects to be situated in the future. There is a series of important factors which could cause the situation and results of Ence to differ significantly from what is expounded in the data relating to future forecasts, including fluctuation in the price of wood pulp or wood, seasonal variations in business, regulatory changes to the electricity sector, fluctuation in exchange rates, financial risks, strikes or other kinds of action carried out by the employees of Ence, competition and environmental risks, as well as any other factors described in the document. The data relating to future forecasts solely refer to the date of this presentation without Ence being under any obligation to update or revise any of said data, any of the expectations of Ence, any modification to the conditions or circumstances on which the related data are based, or any other information or data included in this presentation.
The information contained in this document has not been verified by independent experts and, therefore, Ence neither implicitly nor explicitly gives any guarantee on the impartiality, precision, completeness or accuracy of the information, opinions and statements expressed herein.
This document does not constitute an offer or invitation to acquire or subscribe to shares, in accordance with the provisions of Royal Legislative Decree 4/2015, of 23 October, approving the consolidated text of the Securities Market Act. Furthermore, this document does not constitute a purchase, sale or swap offer, nor a request for a purchase, sale or swap offer for securities, or a request for any vote or approval in any other jurisdiction.
The use by ENCE ENERGIA Y CELULOSA, S.A. of any MSCI ESG RESEARCH LLC or its affiliates ("MSCI") data, and the use of MSCI logos, trademarks, service marks or index names herein, do not constitute a sponsorship, endorsement, recommendation, or promotion of ENCE ENERGIA Y CELULOSA, S.A by MSCI. MSCI Services and data are the property of MSCI or its information providers, and are provided "as-is" and without warranty. MSCI names and logos are trademarks or service marks of MSCI.
Chairman & CEO Ence Energía y Celulosa
CFO and Chief Forestry Officer Ence Energía y Celulosa
CEO of the Pulp business
CEO of the Energy business
"To be leaders in the sustainable use of natural resources to produce special pulp and renewable energy in competitive biofactories and plants integrated into their environment"
"……to contribute to the development of society through the sustainable and responsible use of the natural resources available in our environment, offering pulp to replace polluting products and manageable green energy"
Leadership and Differentiation
✓ Great Place To Work
engagement
community engagement
✓ 45k beneficiaries of
✓ 19k jobs created
(vs 2020)
female
plants
People & values
✓ 90% permanent contracts
✓ 80% of new hires <30 are
✓ +3% female employees
✓ 95% of suppliers are local
Risk Minimization
Global ESG score: 91/100
Governance
Ensure Correct Decision Making
8
Two independent and complementary businesses
Largest biomass operator in Spain with 266 MW of Renewable Energy installed capacity & 140 MW pipeline in biomass
Regulated Renewable Energy business provides stability and high
12021 recurrent annual EBITDA split ex-hedge impact 2EBITDA calculated at mid cycle prices
Differentiated products aimed at softwood pulp and plastic substitution
High quality pulp and differentiated products with lower environmental footprint and enhanced technical properties
Just in time service (5-7 days delivery vs. 40 days for LatAm deliveries) Lower logistics costs vs LatAm Proximity offers protection against rising transport costs Contributes to reduce CO2 emissions by sourcing locally
Ence has a privileged access to the European market
Navia Excelente strategy to foster production of differentiated products, diversify into Fluff pulp and reduce its environmental footprint while improving cash costs with the valorisation of the lignin
On July 2021, the Spanish National Court has annulled the land concession on which our Pontevedra bio-mill is located
Supreme Court has admitted the appeal by Ence against the annulment of its concession. Final ruling expected by year end 2022
Pontevedra pulp mill accounts for:
of the Pulp Business average cycle EBITDA
of the Group average cycle EBITDA => smaller/less efficient than Navia
Biomass power plants 266 MW
Biomass Pipeline 140 MW
at the regulated price bands
A manageable renewable technology with room to grow in Spain
Abundant resource CO2 neutral Fully manageable Rural development Biomass is neutral in carbon emissions and avoids diffuse emissions of forest and agricultural byproducts. It also reduces fire risk in our forests and the problem of biomass uncontrolled burning. Biomass provides a high socioeconomic value due to its environmental advantages and the important contribution to the rural employment generation and the industrialization of the rural economy, avoiding rural exodus. Biomass is a very abundant resource in Spain. We draw upon local agricultural and forest by-products, mitigating their environmental impact and reducing fire risk Biomass is the only renewable technology, together with hydraulics, which is totally manageable. It can operate 24 hours a day, 365 days a year and exceed 8,000 hours a year. Biomass acts as a backup for other renewable energies.
16
Spain expected renewable energy to double by 2030 Ence´s pipeline 1
Biomass: 140 MW PV: 373 MW
Early-stage PV pipeline: 300 MW
Other growth opportunities
Spanish RES market expected to grow significantly in the upcoming years…
…and Ence has both the expertise and a proven track record to capitalise on that growth
Through greenfield, M&A and selective asset rotation
Over €170 Mn capital gains through asset rotation
European leader operating in two long-term structural growth industries combined with long-term structural competitive advantages
Navia Excelente Strategy adopted to take advantage of current industry megatrends, develop Navia & defend the Pontevedra Concession
3
2
1
Shareholder returns further enhanced by multiple new projects (ROCE >> WACC)
Alfredo Avello CFO & Chief Forestry Officer Ence Energía y Celulosa
And the reference in responsible and sustainable forestry management
▪ Our plantations annually remove 600,000 tons of CO2 from the atmosphere
Prevents deforestation
Clones and seedlines adapted to specific local soil and climate conditions
Promotion of state of the art sustainable silviculture practices
Development of the surrounding areas (job creation and income distribution, promotion of forestry sector, etc.)
Enhancing yields of eucalyptus plantations adapted to new climate change and plague local conditions
Faster growth and higher density of eucalyptus vs. other wood species
Jordi Aguiló CEO of the Pulp Business
Europe and China are structural importers of BHKP due to the lack of local hardwood
Packaging growth driven by:
Specialties growth driven by:
2.9% annual market pulp demand growth in the last 10 years, equivalent to 1.6 Mn t per year
10%
15%
1Source: Ence 2Source: PPPC 3 Source: RISI
Focus on Europe and on growing segments with differentiated products
Ence's differentiated products accounted for 16% of pulp sales (c,150.000 t) vs. 9% in 2020 These higher value-added products with higher margins are more environmentally friendly and well suited to replace softwood pulp
Ence's special products have almost x3 during the period 2019-21 (76% CAGR) and expected to be at 400,000 in 2027
• Improvement of the eco-efficiency and flexibility of the differentiated pulp production in Navia to substitute softwood and plastic products
| Capex (€ Mn) | 15 | 2023 |
|---|---|---|
| Substitution of BHKP (t) |
+250,0001 | 2022-27 |
| Targeted incremental margin (€/t) |
20 | 2022-27 |
• To diversify Navia product range into Fluff pulp production for the absorbent hygienic products industry in Europe, substituting imported Fluff
| Capex (€ Mn) | 30 | 2022-23 |
|---|---|---|
| Substitution by Fluff (t) |
100,000 | 2024-27 |
| Targeted incremental margin (€/t) |
40 | 2024-27 |
• Promotion of the circular bio-economy through the use of lignin to replace natural gas as fuel in lime kilns and its use in high value-added products. Reduction of up to 50.000 tons of CO2 emissions by 2027
| Capex (€ Mn) | 60 | 2022-24 |
|---|---|---|
| Annual Pulp Production boost (t) |
+30,000 | 2024-25 |
| Navia cash-cost reduction (€/t) |
5 | 2024-25 |
Marc Gómez CEO of the Energy Business
Spain expected renewable energy to double by 20301 MW
| Technology (MW) | 2020 | 2025E | 2030E |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wind | 28,033 | 40,633 | 50,333 |
| Solar PV | 9,071 | 21,713 | 39,181 |
| Hydraulic | 14,109 | 14,359 | 14,609 |
| Pumping | 6,024 | 6,899 | 9,524 |
| Solar thermoelectric | 2,303 | 4,803 | 7,303 |
| Biomass | 613 | 815 | 1,408 |
| Biogas & Other RES | 211 | 281 | 321 |
| Total (MW) | 60,364 | 89,503 | 122,679 |
Spain renewable electric energy share to rise >20pp by 20301 In % of total MW
Energy market price + Return on the operations (Ro) + Regulatory Collar
Regulatory Collar Cap Regulatory Collar Floor
Annual return on investment of our power plants amounts to €41 Mn
Additional EBITDA of €10-30 Mn at the regulated sales price bands
• Additional cash inflow in 2021 from the difference between the electricity market price and its regulated price (regulatory collar)
State of the art, low cost biomass projects and an example of fair energy transition
Sale agreement for 373 MW Solar PV asset portfolio
Ence Energía has additional PV projects with a combined capacity of 300 MW at an early-stage of development
Energy management should lead into a €5 Mn EBITDA improvement in 2022 - 2025
35
Alfredo Avello CFO & Chief Forestry Officer Ence Energía y Celulosa
72
Gross debt Cash Net debt Lease contracts
1
121
101
29 27 34
2022 2023 2024 2025 2026<
16 -16 325 Gross debt Cash Net debt Lease contracts Pulp business net debt as of 31 Dec. 2021 (€ Mn) -20 305 126 6 13 28 44 14 6 8 9 9 4 27 3 1 2 6 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026< Pulp business debt maturity schedule (€ Mn) 16 Renewables business net debt as of 31 Dec. 2021 (€ Mn) Renewables business debt maturity schedule (€ Mn) 193 €20 Mn RCF – Fully available €208 Mn corporate financing €126 Mn of convertible bonds €105 Mn of bilateral loans €16 Mn IFRS16 €58 Mn of public sector financing €130 Mn RCF – Fully undrawn 150 38 54 47 For reference ND/EBITDA 2.5x1 For reference ND/EBITDA 5.0x1 Average cost of 1.5% as of Dec.21 Average cost of 4.2% as of Dec.21
€1 Mn IFRS 16
1
36
Financial projections based on last industry specialists' consensus which are expecting average net prices for the next years
A pool price in excess of 48 €/MWh will imply additional cash inflows vs. our projections for Ciudad Real 50 MW and Huelva 46 MW plants as well as anticipated cash inflows for the rest of the plants
37 MW biomass power plant in Navia
Our pulp bio-mills sell all their renewable energy at the market pool price plus a feed-in tariff of 28 €/MWh. At the same time, they purchase back approximately the same amount of energy at the same price (natural hedge). An average pool price in excess or below the assumption of 48 €/MWh wouldn't affect their margin or cash flow contribution.
A pool price in excess of 48 €/MWh will imply anticipated cash inflows vs. our projections
| Main PULP KPIs | 2022E | 2023E | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | Main ENERGY KPIs | 2022E | 2023E | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BHKP price (\$/t) | 1,107 | 926 | 930 | 936 | 945 | 945 | Price (€/MWh) | 100 | 483 | ||||
| Exchange rate (\$/€) | 1.16 | Energy sales (GWh) | 1,600 | 1,600 | 1,600 | 1,600 | 1,825 | 2,200 | |||||
| Discount (%) | 36% |
1FCF before new projects capex, financing and dividends. It does not include any potential regulatory collar cash-inflow in 2022 2 Includes Navia Excelente project and two Biomass plants
348 €/MWh as from 2Q22 - within the regulatory collar bands
| Main PULP KPIs | 2022E | 2023E | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | Main ENERGY KPIs | 2022E | 2023E | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BHKP price (\$/t) | 1,107 | 926 | 930 | 936 | 945 | 945 | Price (€/MWh) | 100 | 483 | ||||
| Exchange rate (\$/€) | 1.16 | Energy sales (GWh) | 1,600 | 1,600 | 1,600 | 1,600 | 1,825 | 2,200 | |||||
| Discount (%) | 36% | 35% |
1FCF before new projects capex, financing and dividends. It does not include any potential regulatory collar cash-inflow in 2022 2 Includes Navia Excelente project and two Biomass plants
348 €/MWh as from 2Q22 - within the regulatory collar bands
Navia 100
Build a new line at Navia mill with a capacity of 100,000 t of Hardwood Paper Grade Pulp (BHKP) using equipment from the potential dismantling of Pontevedra mill
| Capacity increase (t) | +100,000 | 2026-27 |
|---|---|---|
| Cash Cost reduction (€/t) | 10 | 2026-27 |
| Capex (€ Mn) | 100 | 2024-25 |
Build a new swing line at Navia mill with a capacity of 340,000 t of Hardwood Paper Grade Pulp (BHKP) or alternatively up to 200,000 t of Dissolving Pulp for viscose fiber products
| Capacity increase (t) | +340,000 | 2026-27 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash Cost reduction (€/t) | 15 | 2026-27 | ||
| Capex (€ Mn) | 450 | 2024-26 | ||
Annual FCF1 contribution from Pontevedra would be more than offset by Navia Excelente and any of these two projects
Russia's hardwood exports breakdown
Wood industry
| Annual Imports | Annual Exports | Annual Imports | Annual Exports | Annual Exports | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| '000 t | 2021 | ||||||
| '000 t | 2021 | 2021 | '000 t | 2021 | 2021 | Softwood | 8,115 |
| Softwood Pulp | 208 | 1,217 | Packaging | 253 | 2,225 | Hardwood | 8,195 |
| Hardwood Pulp | 56 | 273 | Newsprint | 3 | 922 | SW lumber | 29,000 |
| Other | 14 | 665 | P&W | 833 | 455 | Pellets | 2,425 |
| Total | 279 | 2,156 | Tissue Total |
8 1,097 |
61 3,663 |
Total | 47,735 |
| imports breakdown 6% 10% Brazil 279 Mn t2 |
Others 9% Europe |
exports breakdown 18% Others 2,156 Mn t2 |
imports breakdown Others 28% 1,097 Mn t2 China 10% |
Others | exports breakdown 57% 25% Asia 3,663 Mn t2 |
exports breakdown Others 22% 8,115 Mn t |
38% Others 8,195 Mn t |
| 49% Europe |
35% USA |
73% Asia |
62% Europe |
10% Europe 8% Turkey |
24% Finland |
54% China |
Paper industry
2Breakdown percentages are averages of the 2012-2021 period
62% Finland
Our pulp bio-mills & renewable energy plants are located in Spain Wood & biomass are locally sourced
Chemicals locally sourced or imported from Western Europe
Our pulp bio-mills are energy self-sufficient. They cogenerate all the renewable energy required for the pulp production process
No gas or fuel dependence from Russia
Our commercial activities are mainly located in the Atlantic region Eastern Europe served through the Atlantic coast
No direct exposure to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict Furthermore, Ence faces this situation with high liquidity and a strong financial position
Based on free cash flow and subject to prudent leverage ratios per business
Ensuring a reference leverage of:
Net Debt / EBITDA for the Pulp business, at average cycle prices 2.5x
Net Debt / EBITDA for the Energy business, at average cycle prices 5.0x
And considering capex plans and commitments
Ence presents its results in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles, specifically IFRS. In addition, its quarterly earnings report provides certain other complementary metrics that are not defined or specified in IFRS and are used by management to track the company's performance. The alternative performance measures (APMs) used in this presentation are defined, reconciled and explained in the corresponding quarterly earnings report publicly available through the investor section of our web page www.ence.es.
The production cost per tonne of pulp produced, or cash cost, is the key measure used by management to measure its efficiency as a pulp maker.
Cash cost includes all of the expenses incurred to produce pulp: timber, conversion costs, corporate overhead, sales and marketing expenses and logistics costs. It excludes fixedasset depreciation and forest depletion charges, impairment charges and gains/losses on non-current assets, finance costs/income, income tax and certain operating expenses which management deems to be non-recurring, such as ad-hoc consultancy projects, Ence's long-term remuneration plan, the termination benefits agreed with staff or certain social expenses.
As a result, the difference between the average sales price and the cash cost applied to the total sales volume in tonnes yields a figure that is a very close proxy for the EBITDA generated by the Pulp business, before hedges, which are also not included in the cash cost.
EBITDA is a measure of operating profit before depreciation, amortisation and forestry depletion charges, non-current asset impairment charges, gains or losses on non-current assets and specific non-ordinary income and expenses unrelated to the ordinary operating activities of the company, which alter their comparability in different periods.
EBITDA is a measure used by Ence's management to compare the ordinary results of the company over time. It provides an initial proxy for the cash generated by the company's ordinary operating activities, before interest and tax payments, and is a measure that is widely used in the capital markets to compare the earnings performances of different companies.
Ence reports normalised free cash flow within the cash flow metrics for each of its two business units in its quarterly earnings report. Normalised FCF is the sum of EBITDA, the change in working capital, maintenance capital expenditure, net interest payments and income tax payments.
Normalised free cash flow provides a proxy for the cash generated by the company's operating activities before collection of proceeds from asset sales; this cash represents the amount available for investments other than maintenance capex, for shareholder remuneration and for debt repayment.
Ence provides the breakdown of its capital expenditure and related cash outflows for each of its business units in its quarterly earnings report, distinguishing between maintenance, efficiency & growth and sustainability capex.
Maintenance capex are recurring investments designed to maintain the capacity and productivity of the company's assets. Efficiency & growth capex, meanwhile, are investments designed to increase these assets' capacity and productivity. Lastly, sustainability capex covers investments made to enhance quality standards, occupational health and safety, to improve the environment and to prevent contamination.
Ence's 2019-2023 Business Plan includes a schedule of the amounts it expects to invest annually in efficiency & growth and sustainability capex in order to attain the strategic targets set. The disclosure of capex cash flows broken down by area of investment facilitates oversight of the execution of the published 2016-2020 Business Plan.
Ence reports free cash flow as the sum of its net cash flows from operating activities and its net cash flows from the investing activities of its quarterly earnings report.
Free cash flow provides information about the cash generated by the Group's operating activities that is left over after its investing activities for the remuneration of shareholders and repayment of debt.
The borrowings recognised on the balance sheet, as detailed in its quarterly earnings report, include bonds and other marketable securities, bank borrowings and other financial liabilities. They do not however include the measurement of financial derivatives as well as loans with Group companies and associates.
Net debt is calculated as the difference between current and non-current borrowings on the liability side of the balance sheet together with the sum of cash and cash equivalents, cash for financial debt coverage and short-term financial investments on the asset side.
Net debt provides a proxy for the company's indebtedness and is a metric that is widely used in the capital markets to compare the financial position of different companies.
Investor Relations contact details:
Email: [email protected] Phone: (+34) 91 337 85 53
Global ESG score: 91/100
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