Business and Financial Review • Dec 11, 2022
Business and Financial Review
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INDEPENDENT EQUITY RESEARCH

Expanding the business model in intellectual property development transactions against income from end products; first project in the collaboration with the Granot Group; stock price target remains unchanged.
NRGene Technologies Ltd (TASE: NRGN) is an AgTech company engaged in research and development of technology in the field of artificial intelligence, including software tools, to analyze genetic information based on Big Data. The overarching goal is to accelerate and improve natural development of crops and animals in the global agriculture and food industry.
Strategy - The company continues to implement the change in the business model, in the way it acts as a one stop shop for all the genomic needs of plant and animal breeders as a partner (and not only as a service provider) in the entire process of developing the varieties, including ownership (exclusive or joint) of the intellectual property ( in a model similar to the model in which drug development companies operate). We believe that NRGene is well positioned for growth due to its revenue growth potential, customer base, knowledge and new business model.
Bottom line – The company operates according to an orderly strategic plan including changing the business model and has begun expanding the business model in intellectual property development transactions against revenue from end products, within the framework of the cooperation agreement with the Granot Group. In our view, the transaction has significant leverage both due to the expected revenues and due to the proof of feasibility for the company's business model, in which a significant factor invests in financing the project for the sake of a partnership with the company.


Lead Analyst Dr. Tiran Rothman [email protected] Tel.: +972-9-9502888
NRGENE TECHNOLOGIES LTD
11.12.2022
On August 11, 2022, NRGene Canada, the Company's wholly owned subsidiary in Canada initiated its first collaboration project with the Granot Group for the development of seedlings for dairy cattle feed.
The dairy cattle feed market was worth USD 68.5 billion in 2021 and is estimated to reach USD 78.3 billion by 2026. Based on the value of grains for seedlings per cow (USD 1/day), a 1% market share consisting of approximately 300,000 cows would generate USD 110 million in annual revenues. At first, the commercialization of the project will focus on the European and North American markets, which together comprise 30 million dairy cows.
In the first phase, the Company will apply its AI solution to locate suitable wheat varieties for sprouting and developing elite varieties based on the selected varieties. After the end of the development phase (expected in 2024), the parties will work to establish a joint venture (50-50%), which will own IP that will be developed as part of the collaboration. Also, the joint company will be responsible for the production of grains and their commercialization to vertical farming facilities around the world to be grown as sprouts.
The Granot Group will contribute a financing amount of USD 2 million and, in return, will be entitled to exclusive distribution rights in Israel and other territories, subject to commercial terms agreed upon between the parties. The parties also agreed to examine in the future the suitability of additional crops (such as barley, corn, and legumes) for indoor farming as well as the suitability of the various sprouts for feeding additional farm animals and/or for other uses.
The contract with the Granot Group is the first contract in intellectual property development business models to derive revenues from end-product sales
On November 2, 2022, the company announced that through the use of the company's artificial intelligence tools, and based on tests it performed, NRGene Canada located elite varieties of wheat that were found to be excellent for growing as sprouts, compared to hundreds of commercial wheat varieties that were tested as part of the cooperation between the parties.
In doing so, the company marked a significant milestone towards the development and improvement of elite varieties of wheat that will be grown as sprouts, based on the varieties selected as part of the project. The selected varieties will allow the company to continue the development process of the varieties that will be grown in indoor farming and intended for feeding cows.
Further to the company's contract with a Bank Hapoalim dated May 3, 2021 in an agreement to raise a loan in the amount of NIS 3.3 million (about USD 1 million) for three years, to finance the establishment of the genotyping lab in Canada, on August 15, 2022, the company's board of directors decided to repay the balance of the said loan in the amount of approximately NIS 2.4 million (about USD 0.7 million).
Agriculture is one of the oldest areas of technology and innovation in existence. Its objectives have changed little throughout history: finding ways to increase yields and maximize key traits of crops or animals, such as size, flavor, color, and resistance to pests. Agtech startups have provided farmers with a variety of strategies and technologies to help improve crop resiliency and output. These include agri-finance tools, biotech solutions to improve yields and resiliency, farm management software, and an emerging focus on data-driven artificial intelligence and machine learning (ML) to help automate decision-making.
Modern Agtech startups began attracting venture funding roughly a decade ago, with the industry raising USD 322.2 million in 2010. Since then, VC funding in Agtech has grown to USD 6.1 billion in 2020, a 33.8% CAGR. This explosive growth is a direct result of two primary factors: population growth and climate change. The global population is expected to swell to 9.8 billion people by 2050, driving more demand for food.i At the same time, greenhouse gases and warming climates are creating increasingly frequent extreme weather events that threaten crop yields.
NRGene Technologies Ltd. is an AgTech company engaged in research and development of technology in the field of AI, including software tools, with the aim of analyzing genetic information based on Big Data, in order to accelerate and improve the natural development of crops and animals in the global agriculture and food industry. The uniqueness of this technology lies in its ability to analyse all gene combinations, locate the optimal genetic composition and enable the natural improvement of plant or animal traits by creating new varieties in an accelerated way.
NRGene's technology is widely used to create disease-resistant and climate-resilient varieties with healthier nutritional compositions and maximized yield potential. In the field of plant genomics, the company offers a vast proprietary database and AI-based technologies. The solutions provided by the company have been widely accepted by several research organizations and big industrial players across ~300 projects.
The core of NRGene's technology is its cloud-based AI tool coupled with its extensive database of genomic information, field performance data, and information on pests, diseases, and seed and irrigation
considerations. This information is fed into NRGene's AI model, which computationally predicts elite varieties that consider the mentioned variables. Once the predicted variety is identified, then the variety is produced either using an expedited breeding process, gene editing, or CRISPR. This process allows improved varieties to develop in half the time and at half the research and development costs.
NRGene's solution can be applied and utilized early in an R&D cycle to identify interesting or problematic genes. The Company intends to continue and expand its seed and traits royalty business to solve specific challenges directly to farms and to breeding organizations (seed, food & beverage, processors, retailers, etc.), including offering disease-resistant, drought-resistant, and pest-resistant varieties.
The Company has a comprehensive R&D team that offers innovative solutions in the field of genomics. These capabilities have been combined and have allowed the Company to easily identify several proprietary traits across a wide set of plant genomes that it can license in the future.
NRGene's long-term go-to-market strategy is to become a one-stop shop for all plant and animal breeding genomic requirements. We deem that NRGene is in a strong position for growth due to its large customer base, scalability potential, know-how, and agile business model.
The following three areas encompass significant portions of NRGene's addressable market: bioinformatics technologies, genotyping, and seeds (both genetically modified (GM) and non-GM).
The bioinformatics technology market for agricultural applications generated revenue of USD 3,296 million in 2020 and is expected to generate USD 7,509 million in 2026, a CAGR of 14.7% between 2021-2026. Due to the pressing need to use bioinformatics to identify and cultivate unique traits and the number of unaddressed opportunities across the world, it is expected that the demand for bioinformatic technologies will be immense. In general, Frost & Sullivan expects that revenue growth will range from 13% to 25%, depending on the target application.
A key growth opportunity in the bioinformatics sector is addressing the need for integrated solutions and systems. NRGene's solution could help seeds and/or food firms compensate for the lack of skilled personnel that is hampering market growth and facilitate their transition into integrated solutions and systems companies.
The seed market generated revenue of USD 42,424 million in 2020 and is expected to generate USD 54,926 million in 2026, a CAGR of 4.4% between 2021-2026. The non-GM seed market will also grow during the forecast period as farmers, consumers, governments, and other relevant stakeholders slowly move away from GM-produced varieties. Non-GM crop demand is rising in Asia and the EU and, consequently, these crops command a premium over GM varieties despite possible lower yields.
NRGene could help GM/non-GM companies boost their R&D efforts and quickly achieve varieties with desirable traits such as increasing resistance to pests and tolerance to herbicides, and adverse weather such as drought.
The genotyping technology market generated revenue of USD 1,855 million in 2020 and is expected to generate USD 3,087 million by 2026, a CAGR of 8.9% between 2021-2026. With the increasing adoption of technologies in the plant and animal genomics market post-COVID-19 pandemic, and the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, the market size of support services is expected to grow in parallel by 2026 to facilitate the adoption of services amongst researchers and industry giants.
NRGene is a growth firm, thus we based our valuation on current and future market trends and the Company's plans for future operations. Due to the high growth in the Ag Biotech market and the uniqueness of NRGene's solution, we predict that the Company is well-positioned to generate significant growth in the foreseeable future.
We conducted NRGene's valuation using market benchmarks from recent deals and analysis of VC's activity; Given the assessments and findings mentioned above, we value the company's stock price target in the range of NIS 29.4 to NIS 32.4, with a mean of NIS 30.9.
NRGene Technologies Ltd. is an AgTech company engaged in research and development of technology in the field of artificial intelligence, including software tools, with the aim of analyzing genetic information based on Big Data, in order to accelerate and improve the natural development of crops and animals in the global agriculture and food industry. NRGene's technology is widely used to create disease-resistant and climateresistant varieties, with healthier nutrients and to maximize the yield potential throughout the value chain. In the field of plant genomics, the Company offers an extensive database, AI-based technologies, and tools and services to some of the leading seed and AgTech companies and research institutes in the world.
NRGene's long-term strategy is to become a one-stop shop for all genomic requirements in the development of crops and animals, regardless of the location of partners and customers in the agricultural value chain. This includes data generation in laboratories (including its genotyping lab in Canada) and through other R&D activities, including identification of genetic diversity, to produce new varieties to supply seeds/varieties to various organizations that support farmers around the world. Since the end of 2020, the Company has been actively involved in partnerships with its customers in several development projects of crops and animals in several countries. The Company (exclusively or with partners) invests in development projects of new varieties of crops and animals. The Company then owns the improved varieties and/or traits and benefits from the commercialization of traits or varieties in exchange for royalties from sales or sales of the end-products.
During H1 2022, the company operated through several complementary business models:
as pea and hemp development for the alternative protein industry or high-quality cherry tomato varieties development), or carry the development independent of the partner (such as breeding canola resistant to clubroot a fungal disease).
To date, the company has three main categories of intellectual property development:
In these types of projects, the partner receives the end-product (varieties or traits) and pays the company royalties from its revenues. Thus, the financing and business risk of the partner/customer is lower since payment to the Company depends on the achievement of the development goals and the future income of the partner/customer. The Company estimates that if (i) the development stage of the project is completed successfully, the projects will reach the stage of implementation and commercialization, (ii) subject to the right market conditions, and (iii) having contracts in royalty-based deals with a significant amount of potential clients, then revenues from royalties from each project (for the entire project duration – 10 years on average) has the potential to amount to tens of millions of dollars.
| Project | Development | Commercialization | Expected | Potential market | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| period | status | period for | per year | royalties | |
| initial | (seeds/varieties) | (life time | |||
| royalties | value of 10 |
||||
| years) | |||||
| ToBRFV | 2020-2022 | 10 signed | 2023 | Above USD 500 |
USD 100 |
| Resistance in | commercialization | million/year | million | ||
| Tomatoes | agreements | ||||
| Clubroot | 2021-2025 | Not yet initiated | 2025 | Above USD 300 |
USD 75 |
| Resistance in | million/year | million | |||
| Canola | |||||
| Alternative | 2021-2023 | Not yet initiated (part |
2024 | Above USD 150 | USD 50 |
As of the H1 2022 report, the Company has assessed several material projects as follows:
| Protein from | of a consortia | million/year | million | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pea and Hemp | agreement in Canada) | ||||
| (alternative | |||||
| protein) | |||||
| High-Quality | 2021-2023 | Not yet initiated (the |
2025 | Above USD 25 |
USD 10 |
| Cherry Tomato | partner is responsible | million/year | million | ||
| Varieties | for commercialization) |
* Based on the company's estimates based on market data as of the date of the first H1 2022 report, including estimates regarding the market size, penetration rate and the average royalty rate.
** According to the company's estimation, the average project life is about 10 years. The revenue potential shown in the table is subject to the assumptions detailed above.
The status of current and expected IP development deals as of H1 2022 report are presented below:

b. End-products development projects – This type of intellectual property development project may generate revenues from the end-products (varieties or traits) directly to the customers. The Company estimates that if the projects reach commercialization, they have the potential to carry a long-term value for the Company's shareholders and customers. The potential is estimated by the Company to be highly significant because of the outcome of the project is an end-product in markets that amount to hundreds of billions of dollars.
The status of current and expected IP development deals, as of the H1 2022 report are presented below:
| Project / Partner | 2021 |
2022 | 12023 | 2024 | 1 2025 | 12026 | 2030 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IP development in return for end-product sales | ||||||||
| ə N | Seedlings for dairy cattle feed Granot Group ( NEW | 2022: NRGene's development | 2024: income from end-product sales | |||||
| ən birin (Milli Mərkəzi) — Azərbaycan (Azərbaycan fərqlər) — Azərbaycan (Azərbaycan fərqlər) — Azərbaycan (Azərbaycan fərqlər) — Azərbaycan (Azərbaycan fərqlər) — Azərbaycan | Insects adapted to different agricultural residues Internal Development |
2022: NRGene's development | 2024: income from end-product sales | |||||
| ietie | . ** |
As of the date of the H1 2022 report, the Company expanded its customer base and signed commercialization contracts for genetic testing in key crops such as corn, wheat, canola, etc. In October 2021, the Company opened a laboratory in Saskatoon in Saskatchewan, Canada. As of the date of the report, the laboratory is operational and is serving existing and new customers. The Company forecasts an increase in revenues associated with genetic testing by entering into longterm and recurring transactions with existing and future customers. Therefore, with the launch of the new products, the Company chose to prioritize long-term recurring transactions for this product (genetic testing) at the expense of one-time/short-term revenues. This is part of its market penetration strategy to give the Company a better reach to an advanced stage in the value-chain. The Company continues to carry out additional research and development efforts to expand its solutions in the field of genetic testing, including dedicated DNA kits to specific market segments and crops with extensive business potential based on the Company's unique databases.
needs of the project/customer, including highly complex bioinformatic analysis, cloud-based AI solutions, etc. The Company has completed over 300 projects and proved that the technology brought value to its customers (validation). The Company also gained vast experience and built databases in key crops used in existing and new projects. Presently, the Company is actively engaged in negotiations that may lead to additional substantial projects.
We believe that the above complementary models are beneficial to NRGene for two main reasons:
As of the date of the H1 2022 report, the balance of the financial assets (cash, and short-term bank deposits) available to the Company are about USD 15.8 million (gross), and the company expects to be able execute its strategic plan without the need for additional financing. In addition, the Company is actively seeking additional alternative financing options such as government grants.
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Dr. Tiran Rothman T: +972 (0) 9 950 2888 E: [email protected]
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i "World Population Projected to Reach 9.8 Billion in 2050, and 11.2 Billion in 2100," United Nations, June 21, 2017.
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