Investor Presentation • Nov 19, 2015
Investor Presentation
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This document has been prepared by CTT – Correios de Portugal, S.A. (the "Company" or "CTT") exclusively for use during the presentation of the CTT Capital Markets Day 2015. As a consequence thereof, this document may not be disclosed or published, nor used by any other person or entity, for any other reason or purpose without the express and prior written consent of CTT. This document (i) may contain summarised information and be subject to amendments and supplements, and (ii) the information contained herein has not been verified, reviewed nor audited by any of the Company's advisors or auditors. Except as required by applicable law, CTT does not undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any of the information contained in this document. Consequently, the Company does not assume liability for this document if it is used for a purpose other than the above. No express or implied representation, warranty or undertaking is made as to, and no reliance shall be placed on, the accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information or the opinions or statements expressed herein. Neither the Company nor its subsidiaries, affiliates, directors, employees or advisors assume liability of any kind, whether for negligence or any other reason, for any damage or loss arising from any use of this document or its contents. Neither this document nor any part of it constitutes a contract, nor may it be used for incorporation into or construction of any contract or agreement.
This document has an informative nature and does not constitute, nor must it be interpreted as, an offer to sell, issue, exchange or buy any financial instruments (namely any securities issued by CTT or by any of its subsidiaries or affiliates), nor a solicitation of any kind by CTT, its subsidiaries or affiliates. Distribution of this document in certain jurisdictions may be prohibited, and recipients into whose possession this document comes shall be solely responsible for informing themselves about, and observing any such restrictions. Moreover, the recipients of this document are invited and advised to consult the public information disclosed by CTT on its website (www.ctt.pt) as well as on the Portuguese Securities Market Commission's website (www.cmvm.pt). In particular, the contents of this presentation shall be read and understood in light of the financial information disclosed by CTT through such means, which prevails in regard to any data presented in this document. By attending the meeting where this presentation is made and reading this document, you agree to be bound by the foregoing restrictions.
This presentation contains forward-looking statements. All the statements herein which are not historical facts, including, but not limited to, statements expressing our current opinion or, as applicable, those of our directors regarding the financial performance, the business strategy, the management plans and objectives concerning future operations and investments are forward-looking statements. Statements that include the words "expects", "estimates", "foresees", "predicts", "intends", "plans", "believes", "anticipates", "will", "targets", "aims", "may", "would", "could", "continues" and similar statements of a future or forward-looking nature identify forward-looking statements.
All forward-looking statements included herein involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties. Accordingly, there are or will be important factors that could cause our actual results, performance or achievements to differ materially from those indicated in these statements. Any forward-looking statements in this document reflect our current views with respect to future events and are subject to these and other risks, uncertainties and assumptions relating to the results of our operations, growth strategy and liquidity, and the wider environment (specifically, market developments, investment opportunities and regulatory framework or conditions).
Although CTT believes that the assumptions beyond such forward-looking statements are reasonable when made, any third parties are cautioned that forward-looking information and statements are subject to various risks and uncertainties, many of which are difficult to predict and generally beyond the control of CTT, what could cause the models, objectives, targets, plans, estimates and/or projections to be materially reviewed and/or actual results and developments to differ materially from those expressed in, or implied or projected by, the forward-looking information and statements.
Forward-looking statements (in particular, the objectives, estimates and projections as well as the corresponding assumptions) do neither constitute a representation nor a commitment regarding the models and plans to be implemented, nor are they guarantees of future performance, nor have they been reviewed by the auditors of CTT. You are cautioned not to place undue reliance on the forward-looking statements herein.
All forward-looking statements included herein speak only as at the date of this presentation. Except as required by applicable law, CTT does not undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.
II
I Company overview
Three-year performance highlights
III Strategic update
IV Banco CTT strategic update
V 2020 business ambition
1 Revenues by business unit including CTT Central Structure and Intragroup Eliminations.
… leveraging on its unique networks and iconic brand
7
1 As at 30 September 2015; 21H15, except for BPI and Millennium which have reported the number of branches as at 30 September 2015; 3 Ramp-up of Banco CTT to up to 603 CTT post offices in the first three years and 1 own branch.
8 1Reported revenues including income related to CTT Central Structure and Intragroup Eliminations; 2 Excluding non-recurring revenues and non-recurring costs; 3 Source: Annual Reports – excluding non-recurring items. Royal Mail fiscal year ends in March (e.g. 2015 refers to the period between Apr-14 and Mar-15).
1 Bloomberg, 16 November 2015; PSI20 rebased to CTT IPO share price; 2 Peers included are: Austrian Post, Bpost, Deutsche Post, Royal Mail Group and Post NL; 3 Accelerated bookbuilding (ABB).
1 Including income related to CTT Central Structure and Intragroup Eliminations.
13 INTEGRATION OF THE MAIL AND E&P DISTRIBUTION NETWORKS IN 2014 & 2015 (TO BE DETAILED FURTHER ON)
Recurring Staff and External Supplies & Services costs € million; CAGR %
Circa 5% of the 2012 recurring Staff and ES&S costs base taken out of the business in 3 years (excluding Banco CTT project costs)
Resulting in €14m annual cost savings (with IT and telecoms) from 2015 onwards
Resulting in €2.7m cost savings (with outsourced parcel distribution), of which ~€1m in 2015 and the remaining from 2016 onwards
€2.8m of Banco CTT recurring Staff, ES&S and other costs included in the 9M15 accounts
In 2014 accounted for only at the end of 4Q and considered as non-recurring
1 Mainly due to discount rate revision from 4.0% to 2.5%; 2 Excluding share plan; 3 Annualised estimate. 9M15 financial cost reduction of €3.3m.
Revenues in € million; revenues per head in € thousand; costs & EBITDA as % of recurring revenues
1 Excluding non-recurring revenues and non-recurring operating costs affecting EBITDA.
1 Adjusted operating free cash flow as percentage of Net income (i.e. excluding changes in net Financial Services payables).
| Acctt | ||
|---|---|---|
| CAPITAL MARKETS |
||
| DAY LISBON 2015 |
| Revenues & volumes |
Addressed mail volumes estimated to decline in the [-3% ; -4%] range, better than the -5% initial target Growth in revenues for a second year in a row, supported by all business units and Altice's MoU |
|---|---|
| Operating costs & EBITDA |
Like-for-like (excluding Banco CTT project) recurring costs to decline, but full impact of efficiency measures only in 2016 Management is confident in high single-digit growth in "like-for-like" recurring EBITDA (excluding Banco CTT project costs) |
| Earnings & dividend |
The Board is confident that it will be able to propose a minimum dividend of €0.47 per share (€70.5m for 150m shares outstanding, 6.8% growth on a recurring base) for the financial year 2015, payable in 2016 |
CTT has a well-defined strategy leveraging on its competitive skills and advantages
Volumes evolution and ANACOM forecasts 1 (% change y.o.y.)
Price evolution 2011 – 2015 (% change y.o.y.)
More aggressive market approach, positioning CTT as an expert in Advertising Mail within the advertising market (i.e. for agencies, advertisers and clients…)
… increasing the budget allocated to Advertising Mail in advertising investments in Portugal and capturing value in the digital Direct Mail (DM) market
Creation of an online platform to enable SMEs to create and manage Advertising Mail campaigns
Inclusion of digital marketing solutions in the platform
Approach to creative and media agencies through dedicated teams and knowledge sharing
1 Calculated based on CTT 2014 reported revenues; 2Advertising Mail revenues as % of 2014 reported revenues (Annual Reports).
IV. Efficiency programmes – initiatives for operations and network optimisation
Strategic update | Capture the growth trend in parcels I. Offer upgrade – innovative solutions to the product portfolio
Seize the opportunity in e-commerce: full adaptation to customers' needs and required product features
New modular and upgraded offer being developed New CTT Expresso digital channel strategy
branches (postal
>140 stores of the largest appliance / electronics retailer in Portugal
3 large eretailers already using the service
agencies) Keep up with technological trends and improve customer experience Strategic update | Capture the growth trend in parcels II. E-commerce initiatives – promoting innovation
E-commerce defines a new paradigm for B2C / C2X offer… … to which CTT is adapting by promoting innovation
The delivery experience as part of the online process – avoid complexity shock
Adjust for different lifestyles and schedules (anywhere / anytime)
More propensity to changes in plans during the process and adaptation to "customers' needs and wants"
Information, predictability, interaction and track & trace
€ million
% of CTT Expresso volumes delivered by the Mail network
V. Spain: Turnaround – focus on improving the profitability of Tourline
| Initiatives | Key actions | Short-term impact (YTD) | Future levers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Maximise the value of the franchisees |
• Reorganisation / rationalisation of the network of franchisees • Increase control and scrutiny over the network of franchisees, mostly new entries • New franchisee distributors to increase capillarity |
- Loss of business due to exit of franchisees - Write-offs / impairments Increased operating costs - by expanding direct operations (temporary) |
• Capture full market potential • ~€3.5b market with 4.4% y.o.y. growth (in 2014) 1 • Consolidation upside (highly fragmented market with ~7 thousand companies 1 ) |
| Improve performance in direct operations |
• Improve commercial effectiveness by creating a new commercial task force and strengthening direct relationship with clients |
Average price increase in + own areas (still marginal) and improvement in the pricing structure (price vs. weight vs. delivery times) |
• Lever on a robust, commercial driven and nationwide network of franchisees to ensure: • Optimisation of delivery costs • Scale and capillarity |
| Optimise central costs |
• HR optimisation – adjust the cost structure of Tourline to its current operations |
- Increase in non-recurring Staff costs |
• Volume increase • Increase efficiency in central and own operations and price optimisation in line with market |
| Organisational structure and information |
• New management team with strong local experience • New management information systems (e.g. data reliability and accountability) |
N.A. | boundaries • Reinforce our integrated Iberian offer, important for large clients with cross-border needs |
| Turnaround plan in motion with medium / long-term initiatives |
Negative impact on short-term results |
Close monitoring of results to ensure sound strategic decisions 31 |
| Partnerships | 1 Weight |
Future objectives | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Savings and insurance • Public debt certificates • Retirement savings plans • Life insurance • Non-life insurance |
41% | • Maintain the well-established relation with the Government (IGCP) for the sale of public debt certificates • Launch of healthcare insurance expanding to a full offer of insurance products |
Highlight on future Healthcare Insurance product • Partnership with |
|
| Payments • Postal charges • Tax collection • Toll collection |
39% | • Expanded tax payments in the Payshop network • Enlarged commercial offer for bill issuers integrating physical and remote payment channels |
a leading provider to sell healthcare insurance • Associated features: home |
|
| Transfers • National money orders • International money orders • Western Union |
16% | • Fixed customer base (~700,000 people) for social benefits money orders, of which ~50% collect their money within the CTT Retail Network • Potential to maximise the value of these customers to CTT by transferring them to Banco CTT |
healthcare services, emergency transportation, hotline for emergencies and support, |
|
| Credit & other • Consumer credit • Credit cards |
4% | • Launched in mid-2014 • Credit cards launched in April 2015 • Increase commercial effort on existing products |
equipment rental, etc. |
|
| Revenues in 2014: €73.9m |
34 |
1 Weight in 2014 Financial Services recurring revenues.
Source: Market study performed by CTT (1,507 interviews representative of the Portuguese population conducted during May 2015).
Strategic update | Launch Banco CTT to expand Financial Services III. Migration of Financial Services to Banco CTT SAVINGS & INSURANCE Public debt certificates Life insurance Non-life insurance PAYMENTS Post offices Tax collection Payshop TRANSFERS National money orders International money orders Western Union CREDIT & OTHER Consumer credit Credit cards Provider Multiple Staying in FS Migrating to bank 2014 revenues 1 Initial plan Revised plan Migration to Banco CTT €29m €2m €8m €3m €0m €1m €0m €16m Initial plan: Revised plan: €29m Initial plan: €13m Revised plan: Year 1 with ramp-up Year 0 with ramp-up Year 0 Year 3 Year 0 Year 0 Year 0 Year 3 Year 1 with ramp-up Year 1 with ramp-up
NO MIGRATION OR MIGRATION WITH RAMP-UP (OR AT A LATER STAGE) WILL MEAN LESS REVENUES FOR THE BANK
LEVERAGE ON THE SCALABILITY OF OUR ASSETS
Analysis aimed at maximising value generated per minute and per sq. meter
Goals and future application of post offices segmentation:
38 Note: The analysis considered 601 CTT post offices. The remaining post offices at the time were 5 post offices established in partnerships, 12 corporate mail delivery desks, 4 mobile post offices and 1 post office opened in 2014 (Cascais II) with no representative data; 1 Revenues for which each post office is accountable.
Areas
Telecommunications & multimedia operator
• Sale of PT Portugal products and services
Leading company in the energy sector
• Toll payments
43 1 Full compliance with CMVM's Corporate Governance Code recommending (i) separation of Chairman / CEO or (ii) combined Chairman / CEO and Lead Independent Director promoting the nonexecutives' oversight role and an informed decision-making process; 2 Committee responsible for assisting the Board and the Remuneration Committee (as applicable) on governance matters, directors' and key officers' selection, succession plans, remuneration policy and performance evaluation; Chairman / CEO prevented from voting in case of conflict of interest.
| BOARD OF DIRECTORS |
• Approving CTT's strategic and risk profile, objectives and policies • Establishing the strategic, business, investment and financial plans • Ensuring the effectiveness of the risk management system, internal control and internal audit • (Dis)Investments above certain thresholds or within / outside certain geographic or business areas and financing above €150m or 5 years • Approving the financial statements and dividend policy (both presented to be voted in the General Meeting) • In general, approving the transactions above €50m and oversight of the management |
|---|---|
| EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE |
• Day-to-day management of CTT |
| AUDIT COMMITTEE |
• Oversight of the quality and integrity of the financial information, in particular (i) monitoring the compliance with the accounting standards and (ii) issuing an opinion on the financial statements • Supervision of the risk management system, internal control and internal audit • Hiring, evaluation and replacement of the statutory and external auditor and monitoring the respective independence |
| GOVERNANCE, EVALUATION & NOMINATING COMMITTEE |
• Supervision of governance matters, formulating to the Board recommendations concerning corporate governance requirements and good practices, conflicts of interest, incompatibilities, independence and expertise • Leading the annual evaluation of the Board's performance • Proposing policies to the Board regarding appointments, succession planning and Board qualifications • Assisting the Remuneration Committee on the remuneration policy and performance evaluation of the Executive Directors of the Board |
Network and distribution model
Product strategy
Key financials ambition
Capital and investments estimates
Calendar and conclusions
There is an opportunity to launch a banking operation in the Portuguese market, with a bias towards more conservative clients of average / low income
CTT's Retail Network is highly dense and has available capacity, allowing for low marginal costs
CTT already possesses a vast experience in a wide range of financial services
Launch of a banking operation based in CTT's Retail Network and on the principles of proximity, simplicity, transparency and value for money
| Main value proposition | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Customer base | Many postal banks have common characteristics along key dimensions… |
… which are also being replicated by Banco CTT |
|
| Product strategy | 2 | Main target is the retail market, with a bias towards the | |
| Network and distribution model | mass market Large and homogeneous potential customer base coming from the postal operator's daily activities |
||
| Ownership structure | |||
| Return | |||
| Balance Sheet structure | |||
| Main value proposition | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Customer base | ||||
| Product strategy | ||||
| Network and distribution model |
Many postal banks have common characteristics along key dimensions… |
… which are also being replicated by Banco CTT |
||
| Ownership structure | Strong leverage of the postal operator's retail 4 |
|||
| Return | infrastructure by the banking player | |||
| Balance Sheet structure | Up to 603 CTT post offices 1 • with fast ramp-up (positioning itself as one of the largest banking networks in Portugal) |
52 1 The maximum number of Banco CTT branches is 604, with a maximum of 603 post offices and 1 Banco CTT own branch. The remaining post offices do not meet the minimum requirements to accommodate the bank (e.g. mobile post offices).
| Main value proposition | ||
|---|---|---|
| Customer base | ||
| Product strategy | ||
| Network and distribution model | ||
| Ownership structure | Many postal banks have common characteristics along key dimensions… |
… which are also being replicated by Banco CTT |
| Return Balance Sheet structure |
Close control of postal 5 banks by the postal operator, with selected partnerships for certain financial products / services (from fully owned to JVs) |
• CTT as the sole shareholder of Banco CTT |
| Main value proposition Customer base Product strategy Network and distribution model Ownership structure |
||
|---|---|---|
| Return | Many postal banks have common characteristics along key dimensions… |
… which are also being replicated by Banco CTT |
| Balance Sheet structure | 6 (physical and human) and low-cost operations |
Strong profitability, leveraging on existing infrastructures • Banco CTT expected to reach break-even in the 3rd year (before shared costs with CTT) |
| Main value proposition Customer base Product strategy Network and distribution model Ownership structure Return |
||
|---|---|---|
| Balance Sheet structure | Many postal banks have common characteristics along key dimensions… |
… which are also being replicated by Banco CTT |
| 7 lower risk appetite |
Postal banks with low Loan-to-deposit ratios 1 , denoting a • Target Loan-to-deposit ratio of Banco CTT circa 50% |
Percentage points
56 1Clients that made at least one transaction in CTT post offices in the last six months (estimated clients ~3.7m in 2014).
Source: Market study performed by CTT (1,507 interviews representative of the Portuguese population conducted during May 2015).
Product strategy
Key financials ambition
Capital and investments estimates
Calendar and conclusions
Banco CTT expected to benefit from the capillarity of its network, with a higher share of presence
(measured in terms of total number of post offices) in rural areas than other Portuguese banks
Post offices with Banco CTT dedicated space 83
Post offices with Banco CTT dedicated counter 250
Post offices with multifunctional counters Up to 270
1Adjusted to the date of availability of each product as described further on.
Note: image is illustrative, therefore not representing the exact location of Banco CTT branches.
| 1 Banking training |
Offer, processes & 2 systems |
Behavioural & 3 commercial |
Money laundering 4 prevention |
|---|---|---|---|
| ▪ Training in banking to develop the technical and commercial skills required for providing high-standard banking services to clients ▪ Topics covered include, among others: – Financial system – Bank accounts & deposits – Savings & investments – Payment systems – Credit to individuals – Commercial activity |
▪ Provide an overview of Banco CTT's strategy, positioning, operating model and product portfolio ▪ Instil Banco CTT's value proposition ▪ Train front-office processes, namely: – Account opening, deposits & withdrawals and product activation & management – Branch management & cash handling – Payments services – Digital channels |
▪ Improve employees' soft skills necessary to implement Banco CTT's strategy ▪ Train desired behaviours in practical contexts related to a banking activity ▪ Shape employees' interactions with clients to the requirements of a banking setting ▪ Support understanding of the new organisational setting with the bank's launch and prepare employees to act as change agents |
▪ Improve understanding on money laundering impact and importance of robust controls ▪ Discuss most common signs of suspicion and their applicability in CTT's daily operation ▪ Train employees on Banco CTT's controls and on how to deal with likely day-to-day situations |
| +40,000 hours in banking training up to now |
+500 employees have concluded the initial banking training |
>€1.5m investment in training of Retail Network employees until the end of roll-out |
Banco CTT – Strategic update
Network and distribution model
Product strategy
Key financials ambition
Capital and investments estimates
Calendar and conclusions
CAGR %
1Information from the Bank of Portugal as at December of each year (except for 2015, where data refers to September); 2 Information from the Bank of Portugal as at September 2015.
Banco CTT's offer
1 Migration will happen progressively as the bank is rolled-out to CTT post offices; 2 Retirement savings plans. 65 Note: Migration dates subject to future revision as they are contingent on on-going negotiations with partners.
1Excluding estimated 1 million enterprise accounts from "Associação Portuguesa de Bancos" (APB – Portuguese Banking Association) reported figure 12.6 million active accounts in 2014; 2 Including consumer and other loans; 3Market share estimates based on the assumption that in the long run the credit market will progressively recover to historical levels. Source: Bank of Portugal; Associação Portuguesa de Bancos.
1 La Banque Postale only introduced consumer loans in 2010; 2 BancoPosta market share in deposits driven by its stronghold in savings accounts (market share of ~18%); 3 BancoPosta does not have banking license to issue credit, only sells third-party credit products (2011 figures).
Source: Bank of Italy; Banque de France; La Poste Annual Report; Poste Italiane Annual Report; Postabank Annual Report, Bawag Annual Report; GfK market research.
Banco CTT – Strategic update
Network and distribution model
Product strategy
Key financials ambition
Capital and investments estimates
Calendar and conclusions
1Including net interest income (both from credit operation and financial investments) and net commission income.
2Market share calculated as a percentage of active bank accounts in Portugal (12.6m according to Associação Portuguesa de Bancos).
3Excluding shared costs with CTT, impairments, provisions and taxes.
Banco CTT – Strategic update
Network and distribution model
Product strategy
Key financials ambition
Capital and investments estimates
Calendar and conclusions
1 Phased-in.
2 Half-year results.
CTT's projected investment in Banco CTT (2016E-2017E) € million
1 Excluding revenues that migrate from CTT; 2 Incremental spending related with the implementation of the bank in the CTT post offices.
2016E 2017E
Banco CTT – Strategic update
Network and distribution model
Product strategy
Key financials ambition
Capital and investments estimates
Calendar and conclusions
Capture the strong market opportunity (more than 25% of the Portuguese market willing to subscribe to Banco CTT's offer), leveraging existing CTT clients and an appealing value proposition
Benefit from the capillarity of the CTT Retail Network and its proximity with customers
Focus on a complete but simple product portfolio, with strong positioning on current accounts, savings accounts, cards and mortgages
Sustain a solid performance, leveraging cost advantage arising from synergies with CTT (HR and real estate) and low cost operations
Maintain a conservative Balance Sheet with low Loan-todeposit ratios, focusing on low-risk mortgages and on the partnership with Cetelem for consumer loans
Banco CTT long-term aspiration 1
| • Customer accounts |
~1m |
|---|---|
| • Mkt share in deposits & savings |
3-4% |
| • Mkt share in mortgage production |
5-6% |
| • Cost-to-income ratio |
<50% |
| • Break-even (before shared costs) |
3 years |
| • ROE |
~15% |
| • Loan-to-deposit ratio |
~50% |
| • Core-tier 1 ratio |
~15% |
Given the ongoing restructuring process in place, no outlook is provided for Spain
CTT Investor Relations
Phone: +351 210 471 857 E-mail: [email protected]
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