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Banco Comercial Portugues

Share Issue/Capital Change Jan 12, 2017

1913_iss_2017-01-12_529669b6-22dd-469d-a848-567c4699da13.pdf

Share Issue/Capital Change

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€1.3bn Rights Issue

Disclaimer (1/3)

THIS PRESENTATION AND ITS CONTENTS ARE CONFIDENTIAL AND NOT FOR RELEASE, PUBLICATION OR DISTRIBUTION, IN WHOLE OR IN PART, DIRECTLY OR INDIRECTLY, IN OR INTO THE UNITED STATES (EXCEPT TO QIBS (AS DEFINED BELOW), AUSTRALIA, JAPAN, SOUTH AFRICA OR ANY JURISDICTION WHERE SUCH DISTRIBUTION IS UNLAWFUL.

THIS PRESENTATION IS NOT AN OFFER OR SOLICITATION OF AN OFFER TO BUY OR SELL SECURITIES. IT IS SOLELY FOR USE AS AN INVESTOR PRESENTATION AND IS PROVIDED FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY. THIS PRESENTATION DOES NOT CONTAIN ALL OF THE INFORMATION THAT IS MATERIAL TO AN INVESTOR. BY ATTENDING THE PRESENTATION AND/OR READING THE PRESENTATION SLIDES YOU AGREE TO BE BOUND AS FOLLOWS:

  • This presentation has been prepared by Banco Comercial Português, S.A. (the "Company") solely for your information and is strictly confidential. This presentation may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, in whole or in part, to any other person (whether within or outside your organisation or firm) or published in whole or in part, for any purpose or under any circumstances. Failure to comply with this restriction may constitute a violation of applicable laws.
  • No representation, warranty or undertaking, express or implied, is made by the Company, Goldman Sachs International, J.P. Morgan Securities plc, Credit Suisse Securities (Europe) Limited, Mediobanca-Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A. or Merrill Lynch International or any of their respective affiliates subsidiaries or subsidiary undertakings (together, the "Banks") or any of their respective members, directors, officers or employees or any other person as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information or the opinions presented or contained in these materials, for any purpose whatsoever. All information presented or contained in these materials is subject to verification, correction, completion and change without notice and its accuracy is not guaranteed. In giving this presentation, neither the Company nor the Banks or any of their respective affiliates or advisers undertakes any obligation to provide the recipient with access to any additional information or to update this presentation or any information or to correct any inaccuracies within any such information. Neither the Company, the Banks, nor any of their respective members, directors, officers, employees, affiliates, advisers or representatives or any other person accepts any liability for any loss arising from these materials. Neither the Company nor the Banks undertake any obligation to amend, complete, correct or update the information in this presentation.
  • The information contained in this presentation does not constitute or form any part of, and should not be construed as, any offer, invitation or recommendation to purchase, sell or subscribe for any securities in any jurisdiction and neither the issue of the information nor anything contained herein shall form the basis of or be relied upon in connection with, or act as any inducement to enter into, any investment activity. This presentation does not purport to contain all of the information that may be required to evaluate any investment in the Company or any of its securities and should not be relied upon to form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract or commitment or investment decision whatsoever. This presentation is intended to present background information on the Company, its business and the industry in which it operates and is not intended to provide complete disclosure upon which an investment decision could be made. This presentation is not a prospectus and any investment decision should be made solely on the basis of the information contained in the Portuguese prospectus (including any amendment or supplements thereto) approved by the Comissão do Mercado de Valores Mobiliários (the "CMVM") and published by the Company in relation to the proposed offering, available on its website and on CMVM's website (www.cmvm.pt), or in the case of relevant persons outside of Portugal, on the basis of the offering circular (together with any supplementary offering circular, if relevant) in relation to the proposed offering.
  • The merit and suitability of investment in the Company should be independently evaluated and determined by investors. Analyses in this presentation are not, and do not purport to be, appraisals of the assets, stock or business of the Company, and do not form any publicity material relating to any issue of securities. Any person considering an investment in the Company is advised to obtain independent advice as to the legal, tax, accounting, regulatory, financial, credit and other related advice prior to making an investment.
  • Neither these materials nor any copy of them may be taken, transmitted or otherwise distributed, in or into the United States, including its territories or possessions, any state of the United States and the District of Columbia, except to persons that are "qualified institutional buyers" ("QIBs") as such term is defined in Rule 144A under the United States Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the "Securities Act"), nor disseminated outside the United States, except in compliance with Regulation S under the Securities Act. These materials do not constitute or form a part of any offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to purchase or subscribe for securities in the United States. The securities mentioned herein (the "Securities") have not been, and will not be, registered under the Securities Act or the securities laws of any state of the United States.
  • The Securities may not be offered or sold in the United States absent registration under the Securities Act or pursuant to an applicable exemption from the registration requirements of the Securities Act. There will be no public offer of the Securities in the United States.
  • The Company has not authorised any offer to the public of Securities in any Member State of the European Economic Area other than Portugal. With respect to each Member State of the European Economic Area other than Portugal that has implemented the Prospectus Directive (each, a "Relevant Member State"), no action has been undertaken or will be undertaken to make an offer to the public of Securities requiring a publication of a prospectus in any Relevant Member State. As a result, the Securities may only be offered in Relevant Member States other than Portugal: (a) To legal entities which are qualified investors as defined under the Prospectus Directive; (b) To fewer than 150 natural or legal persons (other than qualified investors as defined in the Prospectus Directive); or (c) In any other circumstances not requiring the Company to publish a prospectus as provided under Article 3(2) of the Prospectus Directive.

Disclaimer (2/3)

For the purposes of this paragraph, the expression an "offer to the public of Securities" in any Relevant Member State means the communication in any form and by any means of sufficient information on the terms of the offer and the Securities to be offered so as to enable an investor to decide to purchase any securities, as the same may be varied in that Relevant Member State by any measure implementing the Prospectus Directive in that Relevant Member State, and the expression "Prospectus Directive" means Directive 2003/71/EC (and the amendments thereto, including 2010 PD Amending Directive (Directive 2010/73/EU), to the extent implemented in the Relevant Member State) and includes any relevant implementing measure in each Relevant Member State.

In the United Kingdom, this communication is directed solely at persons who (i) have professional experience in matters relating to investments and who fall within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (the "Order"), or (ii) are high net worth entities, and other persons to whom such communication may otherwise lawfully be made falling within Article 49(2)(A) to (D) of the Order (all such persons together being referred to as "Relevant Persons"). This communication must not be acted on or relied on by persons who are not Relevant Persons. Any investment or investment activity to which this communication relates is available only to Relevant Persons and will be engaged in only with Relevant Persons. Persons distributing this communication must satisfy themselves that it is lawful to do so.

The Securities have not been and will not be registered under the applicable securities laws of any state or jurisdiction of Australia, Japan or South Africa, and subject to certain exceptions, may not be offered or sold within Australia, Japan or South Africa or to or for the benefit of any national, resident or citizen of Australia, Japan or South Africa. This document is not for distribution in or into Australia, Japan or South Africa.

Any failure to comply with the above restrictions may constitute a violation of applicable securities law. The distribution of this presentation in other jurisdictions may be restricted by law and persons into whose possession this presentation comes should inform themselves about, and observe, any such restrictions.

The information contained in this presentation has not been independently verified. Neither the Company nor any of its affiliates, subsidiaries or subsidiary undertakings, the Banks nor any of their respective advisors or representatives makes any representation or warranty, express or implied, and no reliance should be placed, on the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information or opinions contained in this presentation. Percentages and certain amounts included in this presentation have been rounded for ease of presentation. Accordingly, figures shown as totals in certain tables may not be the precise sum of the figures that precede them. No person is authorised to make any representation not contained in or inconsistent with the offering documents for any offering of securities of the Company and, if made, such representation must not be relied upon as having been authorised by the Company, or any of its respective affiliates, advisors or representatives. Neither the Company nor any of its respective affiliates, advisors or representatives accepts any liability whatsoever (in negligence or otherwise) for any loss howsoever arising from any information contained in this presentation.

The Banks are acting as the advisers to the Company and are acting solely for the Company and no one else in connection with the proposed transaction and will not be responsible to anyone other than the Company for providing the protection afforded to their respective clients nor for providing advice in relation to the content of these materials or any transaction or arrangement referred to in these materials.

The financial information in this presentation has been prepared in accordance with International Financial Reporting Standards ("IFRS") as endorsed by the European Union, in compliance with Regulation (EC) 1606/2002 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 19 July 2002, as amended.

The figures presented do not constitute any form of commitment by the Company in regard to future earnings.

Disclaimer (3/3)

CAUTIONARY STATEMENT ON FORWARD LOOKING STATEMENTS

The matters discussed in this document may include forward-looking statements, including statements with respect to the investment by a member of Fosun Industrial Holdings Limited, the timing of the offering and the allocation of its proceeds, the benefits of the offering including the return to normalization of the Company's activity, the removal of state-aid restrictions, the positive impact on earnings, the strengthening of the balance sheet and the funding, liquidity, quality and capital position, the increase in book value, the impact on the CET1, leverage and Texas ratios, the impact on stress test results and the increase in profitability and shareholder value, statements with respect to the Company's recapitalisation, restructuring and strategic plans, net interest margin, the implementation of a transformational project and its effect on cost savings, cost-to-income and cost-to-core income, the NPE reduction plan by year-end 2017, including measures to achieve this plan and the effects on asset quality metrics, statements with respect to expected real GDP growth in Poland, Mozambique, Angola and Portugal, statements with respect to future debt repayments, including the Company's repayment of the hybrid instruments held by the Portuguese Republic, and 2018 financial targets, including CET1, loans to deposits, cost-to-income, cost-to-core income, cost of risk, return on equity and dividend pay-out ratio, statements with respect to the Portuguese budget deficit, expenditures, debt level, current account balance and unemployment rate, statements with respect to the Company's borrowings from the European Central Bank, the Company's growth internationally and the future performance of the Company. By their nature, forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties because they relate to events and depend on circumstances that may or may not occur in the future and may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of the Company to be materially different from future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Many of these risks and uncertainties relate to factors that are beyond the Company's ability to control or estimate precisely. The risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, the Company's ability to successfully implement its strategic plan, the Company's ability to successfully implement its recapitalisation plan, the Company's ability to successfully implement its restructuring plan, the Company's ability to successfully implement its funding and capital plan, the successful implementation of economic reforms in Portugal, the Company's ability to access financing on the capital markets, the adequacy of the Company's current provisions against non-performing loans, the quality of the Company's assets, the Company's ability to reduce costs, the Company's ability to deleverage, assumptions included in the Company's financial models, the financial condition of the Company's customers, reductions in the Company's credit rating, growth of the financial markets in the countries in which the Company operates, the Company's ability to grow internationally, future market conditions, currency fluctuations, the actions of regulators, changes in the political, social and regulatory framework in which the Company operates, macroeconomic or technological trends or conditions, including inflation and consumer confidence, and other risk factors identified in the Portuguese prospectus and offering circular (together with any amendments or supplements thereto) prepared in connection with the proposed offering. There is no assurance that such targets may or will be achieved, and they may not be interpreted as profit forecasts or estimates. Additional risks which are not presently known to the Company or which the Company currently believes are not material could result in a material adverse effect on the Bank's cash flows, results of operations, financial conditions and growth prospects or trading price of ordinary shares.

All forward-looking statements included herein are based on information available to the Company as of the date hereof. The Company undertakes no obligation to update publicly or revise any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as may be required by applicable law. All subsequent written and oral forward-looking statements attributable to the Company or persons acting on its behalf are expressly qualified in their entirety by these cautionary statements.

Attendees at this presentation are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date of this presentation. Even if the Company's financial condition, business strategy, plans and objectives of management for future operations are consistent with the forward-looking statements contained in this presentation, those results or developments may not be indicative of results or developments in future periods. The Company and each of the Banks expressly disclaims any obligation or undertaking to release any updates or revisions to these forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by applicable law.

Executive Summary

  • Underwritten €1.3bn rights issue, expected to be completed on February 9, in addition to the private placement of €175mn* subscribed by an affiliate of Fosun Industrial Holdings Limited ("Fosun"), completed on November 18;
  • Proceeds to be allocated to repayment of the remaining €700mn in State CoCos (following repayment of €50mn in December)** and strengthening of the balance sheet to bring fully implemented CET1 ratio and Texas ratio*** in line with new industry benchmarks;
  • The rights issue aims to accelerate the return to normalization of the Bank's activity, including the potential return to dividend payment, in lieu of the phased approach pursued until now; and
  • The rights issue reinforces the objectives of the strategic plan P&L improvements driven by enhanced net interest income (supported by lower cost of funding due to CoCo repayment and ongoing deposit repricing), cost control and normalization of the cost of risk in Portugal; and strengthening of the balance sheet, with improved capital and risk positions supported by an on-going reduction of non-performing exposures.

Strategic plan

Investment case

6

Overview of €1.3bn rights issue

Amount and
structure

Total of 944,624,372 shares presently outstanding, following 75:1 reverse stock split (effective
date: October 24) and private placement of €175mn* subscribed by Fosun
(completed on
November 18)

€1.3bn rights issue with transferable pre-emptive subscription rights
Tangible book value to increase to approximately €5,364mn (net of fees) after rights issue,

from €3,888mn as of September 30, 2016 (€4,063mn adjusted for private placement subscribed
by Fosun)
Approx. 14,169 million new shares to be issued
Terms and
conditions

Subscription ratio: 15 new shares per existing share

Subscription price: €0.0940 per new share

38.6% discount to TERP based on closing price of January 9
Listing: Euronext
Lisbon


Voting right limit has been increased to 30% as per December's EGM resolution
Fosun
presented an anticipated subscription order of an amount of shares that might increase

its holding in the Bank's share capital up to a maximum of 30%

Sonangol
was authorised by ECB to increase its holding in the Bank's share capital up to
approximately 30% (the Bank has no information regarding Sonangol's
decision as to the
exercise, sale and/or purchase of subscription rights)

Syndicate of banks underwriting the rights issue: Goldman Sachs International and J.P. Morgan
Securities plc as Joint Global Coordinators and Joint Bookrunners, Credit Suisse Securities
(Europe) Limited, Mediobanca-Banca
di
Credito
Finanziario
S.p.A. and Merrill Lynch
International as Joint Bookrunners

Rationale: accelerate the return to normalization of the bank's activity

Reimbursement
of State-held
CoCos*
Bring forward full repayment of remaining CoCos
(€700mn, following repayment of €50mn

in December), the cost of which currently exceeds €65mn per annum, pre-tax

Removal of key State-aid related restrictions, including dividend ban, risk of potential sale
of core businesses and tail risk of conversion
Strengthening
the balance
sheet

Improvement of fully implemented CET1 ratio and Texas ratio, bringing them in line with
new industry benchmarks and above current regulatory requirements

Figures as of September 30, 2016, assuming successful completion of the rights issue, post
CoCo
repayment:

Fully implemented CET1 ratio >11%, fulfilling 2018 target in advance; minimum
required phased-in CET1 (SREP): 8.15% in 2017

Texas ratio of 109%, to be favourably impacted by the on-going NPE reduction plan

Phased-in CET1 ratio in the adverse scenario of the stress test of 8.8%, compared to the
5.5% threshold
Focus on
profitability and
shareholder
value

Target ROE ≈10% in 2018 on a stronger equity base (with a 11% fully implemented CET1)
Potential return to dividend payment, with an intended pay-out ratio of ≥40% by 2018,

subject to regulatory requirements

as profit forecasts or estimates.

Rights issue is expected to allow for an immediate repayment of CoCos* and balance sheet strengthening to new industry benchmarks

impacts resulting from lower deductions associated to DTAs and investments in financial institutions above the Basel III thresholds. | ***Capital buffer vs 11% target CET1 ratio to address possible future regulatory impacts and/or to increase NPE coverage. In particular, adjustments to credit risks models, with a view to their better calibration in light of possible context changes, requested by the Supervisory Authorities or as a result of a Bank's initiative, may imply an upward revision of the amount of Risk Weighted Assets and, consequently, will have a negative impact on the capitalization level of the Bank. | ****Texas ratio = NPE / (Tangible equity + LLRs). | *****Coverage by LLRs, collateral and expected loss gap. | ******As of EBA analysis based on figures as of December 31, 2015.

9

Timetable

January 9 Announcement of rights issue terms
January 12 Approval of prospectus by CMVM
January 17 Ex-rights date
January 19

January 30
Rights trading period
January 19 –
February 2
Rights subscription period
February 3 Rights issue take-up announcement
February 3 Settlement of exercised rights
February 9 New shares start trading

Overview and rationale

Strategic plan

Investment case

11

Key highlights of the strategic plan

Resilient pre-provision income generation (€1,041 million in the last 12 months, out of which €649 million in Portugal):

Net interest income to benefit from continuing reduction in cost of deposits and repayment of CoCos: NIM of 1.9% in the first 9 months of 2016 (Portugal :1.6%, up from 0.6% in 2013)

Consistent track record of delivering reduction in operating costs: cost to core-income of 52% vs Eurozone's 77%. Largest operating restructuring in Portugal, with operating costs down ≈40% from 2011 (pre-programme)

  • Focused NPE management through a dedicated recovery strategy in Portugal: NPE reduction of €3.5bn from €12.8bn at year-end 2013 to €9.3bn at September 30, 2016. Plan to reduce NPEs to <€7.5bn by year-end 2017. Total coverage* of 99% at September 30, 2016 2
  • Resilient international earnings contribution of €135mn in the first 9 months of 2016 3
  • Sustainable funding strategy: loans to deposits ratio at 100% as of September 30, 2016 4
  • Enhanced capital position: fully implemented CET1 ratio >11%, fulfilling 2018 target in advance; minimum required phased-in CET1 (SREP): 8.15% in 2017 5

1

Stronger profitability prospects driven by improved NII, efficiency gains, cost of risk normalisation in Portugal* and contribution of international operations

Net interest income to benefit from continuing reduction in cost of deposits and repayment of CoCos 1

NII to improve, as cost of time deposits keeps decreasing ...

  • Expansion of the net interest margin over the last years: up to 1.6% in the first 9 months of 2016 (1.7% excluding interest on CoCos) from 0.6% in 2013
  • Continued improvement of the spread of the portfolio of term deposits: from -239bp in 2013 to -86bp in the first 9 months of 2016; front book priced at an average spread of -59bp in September 2016
  • Less than 4% on net interest income as of 9M16 coming from carry-trade: no significant impact of unwinding of carry-trades on Portuguese Government bonds is expected

Consistent track record of delivering reduction in operating costs… 1

... to be continued, leveraging on a transformational project 1

  • Millennium bcp is one of the most efficient European banks: cost-income of 47% in Portuguese business, down from 81% in 2013; cost-core income of 52%, down from 110% in 2013
  • A transformational project to prepare Millennium bcp for the future is now being rolled-out, focusing on digital, and including a redesign and simplification of the operational model
  • This project is expected to allow a further reduction of the physical footprint and to yield further cost savings, thus resulting in cost-income not to exceed 43% in 2018 (cost-core income not to exceed 50%)

The targets presented are not forecasts. There can be no assurance that these targets can or might be met and these may not be interpreted as profit forecasts or estimates. * Core Income = net interest income + net fees and commissions

Millennium bcp is one of the most efficient banks in Portugal and in the Eurozone 1

The targets presented are not forecasts. There can be no assurance that these targets can or might be met and these may not be interpreted as profit forecasts or estimates. * BCP Group.

** Core Income = net interest income + net fees and commissions.

Continued track record of improvement in operating performance 1

Asset quality metrics to benefit further from continued focus on NPE reduction 2

Continued decrease of NPEs over the last 3 years at a pace of €1.3bn per year as a result of a stabilisation of the macro environment and the measures implemented, including (i) strengthening of the monitoring of credit quality, (ii) new assessment models, (iii) new internal regulations and recovery model, and (iv) improvement to risk governance

  • Reduction of €3.5bn in almost 3 years to September 2016 comprised of decrease of net new entries (€1.7bn), write-offs (€1.5bn) and sales (€0.4bn)
  • Implementing plan to reduce NPEs to <€7.5bn by year-end 2017, with the following key measures: (i) step-up write-offs, (ii) loan sales, (iii) prevent mortgages in arrears to reach courts and (iv) reduce recovery times for cases handled by external law offices
  • Cost of risk still high (270bps in 9M16) to reinforce NPE total coverage** (99% at September 30, 2016).

The targets presented are not forecasts. There can be no assurance that these targets can or might be met and these may not be interpreted as profit forecasts or estimates. | * NPEs include NPL>90d, cross-default and restructured loans (78% of all restructured loans are included under NPEs; the remaining 22% are related to restructuring for commercial purposes). | ** Coverage by LLRs, collateral and expected loss gap.

Strong coverage levels 2

Ample coverage by LLRs and collateral in Portugal, although long judicial processes hamper swift collateral repossession 2

Foreclosed assets consistently sold above net book value 2

  • Foreclosed assets are re-valued when repossessed, based on conservative assumptions (17% below market values, on average)
  • Real-estate prices in Portugal have been fairly stable over the last years
  • Since 2015, foreclosed assets have consistently been sold at a gain over the book value

Diversified and coherent international exposure delivering resilient contribution 3

Stronger funding and liquidity… 4

  • Future debt repayments (medium-long term) significantly lower than in the past
  • Net usage of ECB funding at €4.9 billion (€4.0 billion related to TLTRO), compared to €5.9 billion at September 30, 2015 (TLTRO: €1.5 billion)
  • €13.1 billion (net of haircut) of eligible assets available for refinancing operations with ECB, of which €2.0 billion are related to Portuguese sovereign debt, with a €8.2 billion buffer
  • Customer deposits account for 78% of funding
  • Loans to deposit ratio at 100%, 97% if all balance-sheet Customer funds are included

... as well as an enhanced capital position, following rights issue 5

*Does not include positive indirect impacts resulting from lower deductions associated to DTAs and investments in financial institutions above the Basel III thresholds. | **Capital buffer vs 11% target CET1 ratio to address possible future regulatory impacts and/or to increase NPE coverage. In particular, adjustments to credit risks models, with a view to their better calibration in light of possible context changes, requested by the Supervisory Authorities or as a result of a Bank's initiative, may imply an upward revision of the amount of Risk Weighted Assets and, consequently, will have a negative impact on the capitalization level of the Bank.

Overview and rationale

Strategic plan

Investment case

Investment case

The rights issue is expected to accelerate the return to normalization and to allow Millennium bcp to focus on its core strengths

Reference private sector bank in Portugal, and wellpositioned in a rapidly changing landscape

2

1

Profitable commercial banking business model with highly recurrent operating results, supported by a continued track record of improvement in operating performance

Distinct position

  • Profitable and self-funded international operations
  • 4

5

3

  • Strong balance sheet reinforced by rights issue
    • Sound corporate governance and highly qualified management team

Strategic plan for 2018 reaffirmed on a stronger equity base

Consolidated
Past
Worst result since end-2008
9M16 2018
4.2%
Core Tier 1 Bank of Portugal, Mar 08
12.2%
9.5%
fully imp.
phased-in,
Adjusted to private placement, rights issue
and CoCo
repayment:
14.1%
11.4% fully imp.
phased-in,
≈ 11%
175%
Mar 09
100% < 100%
76.5%
6M13
46.0% < 43%
85.7%
2013
52.0% < 50%
194 bp
Dec 14
221 bp < 75 bp
-35.4%
2012
-7.7% ≈ 10%**
With a 11% fully implemented CET1

The targets presented are not forecasts. There can be no assurance that these targets can or might be met and these may not be interpreted as profit forecasts or estimates.

*As per the earnings presentation. | **Revised from a target of greater than 11%, which did not take into account adjustments based on the capital increase completed on 18 November 2016 and this rights offering.

Appendices

  • Company overview
  • Macro environment in Portugal
  • Asset quality indicators

Millennium bcp is a brand with unique international presence focused on key strategic markets

Millennium bcp delivers comparably higher pre-provision profitability vs. peers

X.Xx Other Portuguese banks vs. Millennium bcp

Fiscal consolidation creates the conditions for the sustainability of the public debt, leading to normalisation of yields on sovereign debt

Portugal has been undergoing profound structural reforms, which are already showing positive results

  • Budget deficit expected at 2.4% in 2016, lower than EU's 2.5% target. This is a 2.0pp improvement from 2015, on the back of a 2.3pp decrease of expenditure as a percentage of GDP
  • Portugal's State budget for 2017 forecasts a 1.6% deficit as a percentage of GDP, a 0.9pp improvement from 2016, reflecting both increased revenues (+0.5pp as a percentage of GDP) and lower expenditure (-0.4pp).
  • The 2017 State budget also forecasts a 1.5% GDP growth (chiefly on the back of external demand and investment), unemployment decreasing to 10.3% and the current account surplus expanding to 1.0% of GDP.

Diversified and collaterised portfolio

  • Loans to companies accounted for 46% of the loan portfolio at September 30, 2016, including 10% to construction and real-estate sectors
  • Mortgage accounted for 46% of the loan portfolio, with low delinquency levels and an average LTV of 67%
  • 92% of the loan portfolio is collateralised
  • Real estate accounts for 87% of total collaterals
  • 82% of the real estate collateral is residential

Reconciliation of NPL>90d with NPEs (EBA definition)

A NPE reduction plan is in place

  • Measures implemented in the last years with reducing impact on NPEs: strengthening of the monitoring of credit quality, new assessment models, new internal regulations and recovery model, improvement to the risk management governance model
  • We have a plan aimed at bringing down the level of NPEs significantly to <€7.5bn until December 2017. Key measures under this plan include:
  • Reduction of net new entries: focus on restructuring loans and on quarantine, preventing mortgage cases from reaching courts and reducing the recovery period for cases handled by external law offices
  • Write-offs: step-up write-offs resolved at courts
  • Sales: focus on selling strongly-collateralised corporate loans and, for individuals, loans with low likelihood of recovery

Assumptions, adverse scenario

Adverse scenario Euro Area Portugal
2016 2017 2018 2016 2017 2018
GDP growth -1.0% -1.3% 0.6% -2.1% -2.6% -0.6%
HIPC inflation -0.9% -0.1% 0.1% -1.3% -1.9% -1.0%
Unemployment rates 11.0% 11.7% 12.4% 12.4% 13.3% 15.2%
Residential property prices -7.3% -2.3% 0.1% -7.3% -3.4% -1.2%
Prime commercial property prices -4.5% -5.7% -1.5% -4.9% -5.9% -2.0%
Public debt long term yields 2.1% 2.4% 2.3% 3.8% 3.9% 3.8%
  • As regard the Portuguese banks, the adverse scenario consisted of an economic recession, together with deflation, increase in unemployment, increase in public debt yields and a massive real estate devaluation.
  • BCP's CET1 phased-in ratio stood at 7.2% under the adverse scenario (2.99% in the stress test of 2014).
  • The minimum 5.5% CET1 ratio (phased-in) required in 2014 was kept as a reference in the adverse scenario.
  • Test involved a significant sample of banks in the European Union; outcomes were disclosed for 51 banks, of which 37 directly supervised by the ECB, covering 70% of banking assets in the euro area.
  • Led by EBA in articulation with the ECB. EBA was responsible for running the exercise for the major banks in the Euro Area. ECB has conducted a parallel stress test for the additional significant banks, including Millennium bcp.
  • No minimum capital was set, but the outcome of the stress tests was taken as an input for the 2016 Supervisory Review and Evaluation Processes (SREP).

Glossary (1/2)

Capitalisation products – includes unit linked saving products and retirement saving plans ("PPR", "PPE" and "PPR/E").

Commercial gap – total loans to customers net of BS impairments accumulated minus on-balance sheet customer funds.

Cost of risk, gross (expressed in bp)- ratio of impairment charges accounted in the period to customer loans (gross).

Cost of risk, net (expressed in bp)- ratio of impairment charges (net of recoveries) accounted to customer loans (gross).

Cost to income – operating costs divided by net operating revenues.

Cost to core income - operating costs divided by the net interest income and net fees and commission income.

Core income - net interest income plus net fees and commission income.

Core net income - corresponding to net interest income plus net commissions deducted from operating costs.

Coverage of credit at risk by balance sheet impairments – total BS impairments accumulated for risks of credit divided by credit at risk (gross)

Coverage of credit at risk by balance sheet impairments and real/financial guarantees –total BS impairments accumulated for risks of credit plus real and financial guarantees divided by credit at risk (gross).

Coverage of non-performing loans by balance sheet impairments – total BS impairments accumulated for risks of credit divided by NPL

Credit at risk – definition broader than the non performing loans which includes also restructured loans whose changes from initial terms have resulted in the bank being in a higher risk position than previously; restructured loans which have resulted in the bank becoming in a lower risk position (e.g. reinforced collateral) are not included in credit at risk.

Credit at risk (net) – credit at risk deducted from BS impairments accumulated for risks of credit.

Customer spread – Difference between the spread on the loans to customers book over 3 months Euribor and the spread on the customers' deposits portfolio over 3 months Euribor.

Debt securities - debt securities issued by the Bank and placed with customers.

Dividends from equity instruments - dividends received from investments in financial assets held for trading and available for sale.

Equity accounted earnings - results appropriated by the Group related to the consolidation of entities where, despite having a significant influence, the Group does not control the financial and operational policies.

Loan book spread - average spread on the loan portfolio over 3 months Euribor.

Loan to value ratio (LTV) – Mortgage amount divided by the appraised value of property.

Loan to Deposits ratio (LTD) – Total loans to customers net of accumulated BS impairments for risks of credit to total customer deposits.

Net interest margin - net interest income for the period as a percentage of average interest earning assets.

Net operating revenues - net interest income, dividends from equity instruments, net commissions, net trading income, equity accounted earnings and other net operating income.

Net trading income - net gains/losses arising from trading and hedging activities, net gains/losses arising from available for sale financial assets, net gains/losses arising from financial assets held to maturity.

Non-performing exposures (according to EBA definition) – Non-performing loans and advances to customers more than 90 days past-due or unlikely to be paid without collateral realisation, even if they recognised as defaulted or impaired. Considers also all the exposures if the on-BS 90 days past due reaches 20% of the outstanding amount of total on-BS exposure of the debtor, even if no pull effect is used for default or impairment classification. Includes also the loans in quarantine period over which the debtor has to prove its ability to meet the restructured conditions, even if forbearance has led to the exit form default or impairments classes.

Non-performing exposures coverage ratio – Total BS impairments plus collaterals and expected loss gap divided by non-performing exposures.

Glossary (2/2)

Non-performing loans – Overdue loans more than 90 days including the non-overdue remaining principal of loans, i.e. portion in arrears, plus non-overdue remaining principal.

Non-performing loans ratio (net) – Loans more than 90 days overdue and doubtful loans reclassified as overdue for provisioning purposes less BS impairments accumulated for credit risk divided by total loans (gross).

Non-performing loans coverage ratio – Total BS impairments accumulated for credit risk divided by overdue and doubtful loans divided.

Loans losses reserves - Total BS impairments.

Loans more than 90 days overdue coverage - total BS impairments accumulated for risk of credit divided by total amount of loans overdue with instalments of capital and interest overdue more than 90 days.

Operating costs - staff costs, other administrative costs and depreciation.

Other impairment and provisions - other financial assets impairment, other assets impairment, in particular provision charges related to assets received as payment in kind not fully covered by collateral, goodwill impairment and other provisions.

Other net income – net commissions, net trading income, other net operating income, dividends from equity instruments and equity accounted earnings.

Other net operating income - other operating income, other net income from non-banking activities and gains from the sale of subsidiaries and other assets.

Overdue loans - loans in arrears, not including the non-overdue remaining principal.

Overdue loans coverage ratio – total BS impairments accumulated for risks of credit divided by total amount of loans overdue with instalments of capital and interest overdue.

Overdue and doubtful loans - loans overdue by more than 90 days and the doubtful loans reclassified as overdue loans for provisioning purposes.

Return on equity (ROE) – Net income (including the minority interests) divided by the average attributable equity, deducted from preference shares and other capital instruments.

Return on average assets (ROA) – Net income (including minority interests) divided by the average total assets.

Securities portfolio - financial assets held for trading, financial assets available for sale, assets with repurchase agreement, financial assets held to maturity and other financial assets held for trading at fair value through net income.

Spread on term deposits portfolio – average spread on terms deposits portfolio over 3 months Euribor.

Tangible Equity – Shareholders equity minus goodwill and intangible assets.

Texas ratio – Non performing exposures divided by the sum of Tangible equity and Loan Losses Reserves i.e. NPE / (Tangible equity + LLRs).

Total customer funds - amounts due to customers (including debt securities), assets under management and capitalisation products.

Total operating income – net interest income, dividends from equity instruments, net fees and commissions income, trading income, equity accounted earnings and other operating income.

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