Investor Presentation • Feb 20, 2019
Investor Presentation
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20 February 2019
This document has been prepared by CTT - Correios de Portugal, S.A. (the "Company" or "CTT") exclusively for use during the presentation of the full year 2018 results. As a consequence thereof, this document may not be dis nor used by any other person or entity, for any other reason or purpose without the express and prior written consent of CTT. This document (i) may contain summarised information and be subject to amendments and supplement information contained herein has not been verified, reviewed nor audited by any of the Company's advisors or auditors. Except as required by applicable law, CTT does not undertake any obligation to publicly update or revis contained in this document. Consequently, the Company does not assume liability for this document if it is used for a purpose other than the above. No express or implied representation, warranty or undertaking is made as t placed on, the accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information or the opinions or statements expressed herein. Neither the Company nor its subsidiaries, affiliates, directors, employees or advisors assume liabilit negligence or any other reason, for any damage or loss arising from any use of this document or its contents. Neither this document nor any part of it constitutes a contract, nor may it be used for incorporation into or co agreement.
This document has an informative nature and does not constitute, nor must it be interpreted as, an offer to sell, issue, exchange or buy any financial instruments (namely any securities issued by CTT or by any of its subsi solicitation of any kind by CTT, its subsidiaries or affiliates. Distribution of this document in certain jurisdictions may be prohibited, and recipients into whose possession this document comes shall be solely responsibl about, and observing any such restrictions. Moreover, the recipients of this document are invited and advised to consult the public information disclosed by CTT on its website (www.ctt.pt) as well as on the Portuguese Secu Commission's website (www.cmvm.pt). In particular, the contents of this presentation shall be read and understood in light of the financial information disclosed by CTT, through such means, which prevail in regard to any d document. By attending the meeting where this presentation is made and reading this document, you agree to be bound by the foregoing restrictions.
This presentation contains forward-looking statements. All the statements herein which are not historical facts, including, but not limited to, statements expressing our current opinion or, as applicable, those of our dire performance, the business strategy, the management plans and objectives concerning future operations and investments are forward-looking statements. Statements that include the words "expects", "estimates", "foresees", "pr "plans","believes","anticipates","will","targets","may","would","could","continues" and similar statements of a future or forward-looking nature identify forward-looking statements.
All forward-looking statements included herein involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties. Accordingly, there are or will be important factors that could cause our actual results, performance or achievements to diff indicated in these statements. Any forward-looking statements in this document reflect our current views with respect to future events and are subject to these and other risks, uncertainties and assumptions relating to the growth strategy and liquidity, and the wider environment (specifically, market developments, investment opportunities and requlatory conditions).
Although CTT believes that the assumptions beyond such forward-looking statements are reasonable when made, any third parties are cautioned that forward-looking information and statements are subject to various risks and u of which are difficult to predict and generally beyond the control of CTT, what could cause the models, objectives, plans, estimates and/or projections to be materially reviewed and/or actual results and developments to di expressed in, or implied or projected by, the forward-looking information and statements.
Forward-looking statements (in particular, the objectives, estimates and projections as well as the corresponding assumptions) do neither represent a commitment regarding the models and plans to be implemented, nor are the future performance, nor have they been reviewed by the auditors of CTT. You are cautioned not to place undue reliance on the forward-looking statements herein.
All forward-looking statements included herein speak only as at the date of this presentation. Except as required by applicable law. CTT does not undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking st result of new information, future events or otherwise.
Key financials
Business units
$\rightarrow$ Deposits (E million) $\rightarrow$ Current accounts (thousands) $\rightarrow$ Credit (Emillion)
1CreditplacedbyBancoCTT on its own Balance Sheet, net of impairments.
<sup>1 Excludingnon-recurring items affecting EBITDA of - £8.8m in 2017 and - £16.1m in 2018.
Financial and operational performance
$\epsilon$ million, except when otherwise indicated
| Quarter | Full year | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Financial indicators | 4Q17 | 4Q18 | $\Delta\%$ | 2017 | 2018 | $\Delta\%$ |
| Recurring revenues | 180.0 | 183.2 | $+1.8%$ | 697.9 | 708.0 | $+1.4%$ |
| Recurring operating costs $1$ | 158.2 | 157.8 | $-0.2%$ | 608.0 | 617.6 | $+1.6%$ |
| Recurring EBITDA 1 | 21.8 25.4 |
$+16.7%$ | 89.9 | 90.4 | $+0.6%$ | |
| Reported Net profit | 9.7 7.8 |
$+25.5%$ | 27.3 | 19.6 | $-28.0\%$ | |
| Addressed mail [≡ _≌ (million items) - se |
Unaddressed mail (million items) |
La Express & Parcels Coo (million items) |
Savings & insurance | Banco CTT credit to $clients$ ( $\in$ million) |
||
| 2018 volumes 680.7 |
427.3 | 37.3 | 3.7 | 248.0 | ||
| vs. 2017 $-7.6%$ |
$-13.2%$ | $+12.3%$ | $-35.0%$ | $+212.6%$ |
1 Excludingnon-recurring items affecting EBITDA of + €0.1m and + €3.2m in 4Q17 and 4Q18, respectively. Excludingnon-recurring items affecting EBITDA of - €8.8m and - €16.1m in 2017 and 2018, respectively.
• Mail returned to growth, supported by a very strong positive mix effect and 4.1% average price increase, which fully offset the higher-than-expected volumes decline
• Solid EBITDA performance in Mail, as the reduction in the recurring cost base and strong pricing / positive revenues mix effect more than offset the structural decline in volumes
FSEBITDA decreased due to the decline in public debt revenues with high incremental margin. Banco CTT EBITDA declined mainly as a result of higher marketing costs
| Cash flow | Balance sheet - 31 December 2018 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $\epsilon$ million; change vs. prior year | € million; % change vs. 31 December 2017 | ||||
| Adjusted (Excl. FS float & Banco CTT deposits and financial assets) |
1,769 | 1,769 €201m Financial Services payables |
|||
| 2018 | Δ | Cash & cash equivalents | €423m | $(-25.6%)$ | |
| From operating activities | 31.8 | $-12.6$ | $(-32.6%)$ | ||
| Operating cash flow, excl. Banco CTT | 35.7 | $-27.5$ | |||
| Banco CTT operating cash flow | $-3.9$ | $+15.0$ | Banco CTT deposits €899m |
||
| From investing activities | $-16.4$ | $-10.6$ | Banco CTT financial assets | €818m | & other fin. liabilities $(+41.1\%)$ |
| Capex payments (excl. Banco CTT) | $-22.2$ | $+3.1$ | & credit | $(+81.9\%)$ | |
| Banco CTT Capex payments | $-6.2$ | $-0.3$ | |||
| Other | 12.0 | $-13.4$ | Other current assets $1$ , | €210m Other current liabilities |
|
| Operating free cash flow | 15.3 | $-23.2$ | Employee benefits tax credit (€73m; -3.7%) |
€185m $(+3.4\%)$ |
$(+1.4\%)$ Financial debt (€31m; +197.3%) |
| From financing activities | $-36.3$ | $+35.7$ | Other non-current assets | €262m Employee benefits 2 $(-3.1\%)$ |
|
| of which Dividends | $-57.0$ | $+15.0$ | $(687m; +11.9\%)$ | €183m | ∧Non-current liabilities (€19m; -34.7%) £147m |
| Net change in cash | $-21.0$ | $+12.3$ | PP&E | $(-8.4\%)$ | Equity $(-20.2%)$ |
| Assets | Liabilities & Equity |
■ Cash flow from operating activities impacted by €31.2m of indemnity payments related to the OTP (of which €11.6m related to 2017 provisions paid in 2018)
■ Capex reached €30.7m (+€2.1m), mainly due to investment in IT systems (€22.8m); cash capex payments stood at €28.4m (+€2.8m)
■ Net financial own cash totaled €122m, of which €61m of Banco CTT's own cash = (Cash & cash equivalents of €423m - Net Financial Services payables of €195m - Banco CTT deposits & other fin. liabilities of €899m + Banco CTT fin. assets & credit & other of €824m - Short & long-term debt of €31m)
1 Including Financial Services receivables of €4m and €6m as at Dec-17 and Dec-18, respectively. 2 Including current and non-current liabilities.
Key highlights
Key financials
Business units
$N/D$
$+4.7\%$ +4.1%
165.0 680.7
$-8.9\%$ $-7.6\%$
4Q18 2018
vs. 4Q17 | 2017
140.6 585.8
$-7.4\%$ – 6.6%
$14.7|57.8$
$-23.2\%$ $-15.7\%$
$9.7$ | 37.2
$-4.1\%$ $-8.9\%$
$110.5|427.3$
$-10.8\%$ $-13.2\%$
| Recurring revenues | Operating costs | EBITDA | |
|---|---|---|---|
| € million; % change vs. prior year | $\epsilon$ million | $\epsilon$ million | |
| $-$ Portugal & other 1 | €94.0m (+14.9%) | +11.0% $\leftarrow$ | |
| - Parcels | $£67.8m (+7.8%)$ | $- - 149.1$ 147.9 |
$\rightarrow$ |
| $-Cargo \& Logistics2$ | €15.9m (+53.6%) | 3.3 | |
| - Banking network | €6.3m $(+22.2%)$ | $135.1 -- + -$ | |
| $-$ Other 2 | €4.1m $(+16.8%)$ | 133.3 | 2.1 |
| $-Spain$ | €55.3m (+8.1%) | $\mathscr{P}$ 1.3 2.2% |
|
| - Mozambique | €1.8m (+18.4%) | $\bullet$ | |
| Total | €151.2m (+12.3%) | 1.0% | |
| Total excl. Transporta | €137.2m (+9.2%) | 2017 2018 |
2018 2017 $\begin{array}{cccccccccccccc} - & - & - & - & - & - & - & - & - & - & - & - & - & - & - & - & - & - & - &$ $-0.5$ |
Portugal excl. Metric Total Spain Mozambique Portugal Transporta $10.2$ 37.3 $4.8|17.5$ $0.02|0.06$ 4Q18 2018 $5.4|19.8$ $4.8|17.3$ vs. 4Q17 | 2017 $+4.8\%$ + 12.3% $+4.5\%$ +11.7% $+11.0\%$ + 10.3% $+5.2\%$ + 13.1% $-13.7\%$ $-12.0\%$
1 Including revenues from intra-group transactions with companies of other business units and other operating income of Portugal, Spain and Mozambique. 2 Including Transporta revenues (€13.8m in Cargo & Logistics and €0.3m in Other in 2018).
| Recurring revenues | Operating costs | EBITDA | $\overline{\mathbb{L}}$ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $\epsilon$ million; change vs. prior year | $\epsilon$ million | $\epsilon$ million | Mortgage credit growth €172m (E54m in 4Q) |
|
| - Net interest income | €7.9m (+€4.5m) | $+22.0\%$ 41.7 |
||
| - Interest income | €8.6m (+ $€4.4$ m) | 40.8 | $\Box$ | |
| - Interest expense | €0.7m $(-£0.1m)$ | $37.2 - - - -$ | Consumer credit |
|
| - Fees & commissions income | €5.0m (+ $€0.8$ m) | 33.4 | growth 2 | |
| $-$ Consumer credit 1 and insurance | €1.2m ( $-€0.9m$ ) | €42m $(E11m)$ in 4Q) |
||
| - Own products | €3.8m $(+£1.7m)$ | $-14.9$ | ||
| - Payshop & other | €10.7m (-€0.3m) | $-17.3$ $-18.1$ |
$\overline{\mathsf{E}}$ | |
| Total | €23.6m (+ $€5.0m$ ) | $-18.7$ $-15.8%$ |
Current accounts |
|
| 2017 2018 |
2017 2018 |
348k | ||
| Selected Banco CTT Balance Sheet indicators | $\Box$ Recurring --- Reported |
Recurring $-$ - Reported | (122kin 2018) | |
| Metric | Assets $(E \text{ million})$ | Consolidated Equity Deposits (€ million) |
| Metric | Assets ( $\in$ million) | Deposits ( $\in$ million) | Consolidated Equity | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (non consolidated) | Cash & equivalents | Investments | Credit to clients $3$ |
of which Mortgage |
Term (incl. savings) |
Sight | ( $\in$ million) / CET 1 (%) (fully implemented) |
| 31-Dec-18 | 250.8 | 454.1 | 248.0 | 238.4 | 212.3 | 671.7 | 89.5/23.4% |
| vs. 31-Dec-17 | $-25.6%$ | $+69.9\%$ | +212.6% | $+260.8%$ | $+0.8%$ | $+64.4%$ | $+17.2\%$ / -3.1p.p. |
| _ _ _ _ _ _ |
1 Consumer credit & credit cards sold in partnership with BNP Paribas Personal Finance (Cetelem). The FY17 revenues included a fixed commission fee of €0.8m from an insurance provider for the launch of sale of insurance 2 Amount outside CTT's Balance Sheet, representing the amount of credit placed in FY18, in partnership with BNP Paribas Personal Finance (Cetelem). 3Net of impairments.
Deposits
€884m (€265m in 2018)
$+15.9\%$ -32.9%
vs. 4Q17 | 2017
$-6.1\%$ $-5.5\%$
$+4.7\%$ -8.5%
dil
Increase in revenues, supported by organic $\&$ inorganic impacts in the growth levers
Decline in addressed mail volumes expected to be in the -6% to -8% range
Reaffirming the additional c.€15m of rec. op. cost savings expected from the OTP. Net non-recurring items of c.€15m
Growth in organic recurring EBITDA1, reflecting continued efficiency improvements. Additionally, expecting a positive contribution from the 321 Crédito acquisition
€55m of Capex, €25m of which related to and in line with previously communicated OTP modernisation and automation initiatives
Consistent with the declared shareholder remuneration policy, the Board of Directors to propose FY18 dividend of $\epsilon$ 0.10 / share
| $\epsilon$ million | Reported - | Recurring $1 -$ | Reported with Banco CTT under equity method 2 |
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 2018 | 2017 | 2018 | 2017 | 2018 | |||
| Revenues | 714.3 | 717.5 | 697.9 | 708.0 | 702.8 | 701.4 | ||
| Operating costs | 633.1 | 643.1 | 608.0 | 617.6 | 603.0 | 609.0 | ||
| EBITDA | 81.1 | 74.4 | 89.9 | 90.4 | 99.8 | 92.5 | ||
| EBITDA margin | 11.4% | 10.4% | 12.9% | 12.8% | 14.2% | 13.2% | ||
| Depreciations, amortisations, impairments & provisions |
34.0 | 35.7 | 29.7 | 33.4 | 31.1 | 31.7 | ||
| EBIT | 47.1 | 38.7 | 60.2 | 57.0 | 68.7 | 60.7 | ||
| Financial income / (costs) | $-5.0$ | $-5.5$ | $-5.0$ | $-5.5$ | $-5.0$ | $-5.5$ | ||
| Associated companies - gains / (losses) | 0.0 | $-0.8$ | 0.0 | $-0.8$ | $-17.2$ | $-18.3$ | ||
| Earnings before taxes (EBT) | 42.1 | 32.4 | 55.2 | 50.8 | 46.6 | 37.0 | ||
| Income tax for the period | 15.0 | 12.8 | 19.6 | 20.0 | 19.4 | 17.3 | ||
| Non-controlling interests | $-0.1$ | 0.0 | $-0.1$ | 0.0 | $-0.1$ | 0.0 | ||
| Net profit attributable to equity holders | 27.3 | 19.6 | 35.7 | 30.8 | 27.3 | 19.6 | ||
1 Recurring Net profit excludes non-recurring revenues and costs and considers the effective tax rate of CTT for the period.
2 Payshop migrated to Banco CTT business unit in Jan-18 (proforma figures presented for 2017)
| With Banco CTT under equity method $1$ |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31-Dec-17 | 31-Dec-18 | 31-Dec-17 | 31-Dec-18 | |
| 678.5 | 1,026.4 | 413.4 | 405.8 | |
| 930.3 | 742.4 | 557.3 | 456.9 | |
| 1,608.8 | 1,768.8 | 970.7 | 862.7 | |
| 184.0 | 146.8 | 184.0 | 146.8 | |
| 1,424.8 | 1,622.1 | 786.8 | 715.9 | |
| 282.7 | 288.3 | 282.7 | 288.2 | |
| 1,142.0 | 1,333.8 | 504.1 | 427.7 | |
| 1,608.8 | 1,768.8 | 970.7 | 862.7 | |
| CTT |
| $\epsilon$ million; change vs. prior year | Reported | Adjusted 1 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (Excl. FS float & Banco CTT deposits and fin. assets) |
||||||
| 2018 | Δ | 2018 | Δ | |||
| From operating activities | 59.1 | $-231.9$ | 31.8 | $-12.6$ | ||
| Cash flow excl. Banco CTT | $35.7 -$ | $-27.5$ | Impacted by €31.2m | |||
| Banco CTT cash flow | $-3.9$ | $+15.0$ | of indemnities payments related to |
|||
| From investing activities | $-200.7$ | $+39.7$ | $-16.4$ | $-10.6$ | the OTP | |
| Capex payments (excl. Banco CTT) | $-22.2$ | $+3.1$ | $-22.2$ | $+3.1$ | ||
| Banco CTT Capex payments | $-6.2$ | $-0.3$ | $-6.2$ | $-0.3$ | ||
| Banco CTT financial assets 2 | $-184.3$ | $+50.4$ | ||||
| Other | 12.0 | $-13.4$ | 12.0 | $-13.4$ | ||
| Operating free cash flow | $-141.5$ | $-192.2$ | 15.3 | $-23.2$ | ||
| From financing activities | $-36.3$ | $+35.7$ | $-36.3$ | $+35.7$ | ||
| of which Dividends | $-57.0$ | $+15.0$ | $-57.0$ | $+15.0$ | ||
| Other 3 | $-26.3$ | $-55.6$ | 0.0 | $-0.1$ | ||
| Net change in cash | $-204.1$ | $-212.1$ | $-21.0$ | $+12.3$ | ||
1 Cash flow from operating and investing activities excluding changes in Net Financial Services payables and the following items from the Cash flow statement, all of them relating to the Banco CTT financial activity: "Ba
2 Including Investment securities and other banking financial assets held by Banco CTT.
3 These figures were not considered under Cash and equivalents in the Cash flow statement. However, they are included in Cash and equivalents on the Balance Sheet. These amounts correspond to the change in sight deposits Banco CTT / clearing of cheques of Banco CTT, and impairment of sight and term deposits.
| $\epsilon$ million | Non-recurring | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | items 2018 |
||
| Recurring EBITDA | 89.9 | 90.4 | |
| Non-recurring items affecting EBITDA | 8.8 | 16.1 | Including $\epsilon$ 9.3m from R. da Palma and other real estate assets sales |
| Revenues | 16.3 | 9.4 | |
| Staff costs | 14.7 | 20.7 | Including €20.5m of indemnities related to the OTP |
| ES&S & other op. costs | 10.5 | 4.8 | Including €3.8m of strategic studies, €1.1m of |
| Reported EBITDA | 81.1 | 74.4 | which related to the OTP |
| Recurring EBIT | 60.2 | 57.0 | |
| Non-recurring costs affecting only EBIT | 4.3 | 2.3 | |
| Provisions (reinforcements / reductions) | 1.3 | $2.2 -$ | Including €1.4m provision related to a fine by the Spanish Competition Authority |
| Impairments and D&A (losses / reductions) | 3.0 | 0.1 | |
| Non-recurring items affecting EBITDA & EBIT | 13.1 | 18.4 | |
| Reported EBIT | 47.1 | 38.7 | |
| $\epsilon$ million | 2018 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| As reported | Under IFRS 16 |
Estimated impacts of IFRS 16 | |
| Revenues | 717.5 | 717.5 | $\left( =\right)$ None |
| Operating costs | 643.1 | $\lceil -1610.8 \rceil$ | Decrease, as operating costs related to leases are $\overline{\phantom{0}}$ recognised as depreciations and interest costs |
| EBITDA | 74.4 | $\lceil$ - 106.7 | $\blacktriangle$ Increase due to lower operating costs (leases) |
| Depreciations, amortisations, impairments & provisions |
35.7 | $[\sim] 61.0$ | Increase due to additional depreciations of capitalised $\mathbf \Omega$ rights of use assets (RoU) |
| EBIT | 38.7 | $[\sim]$ 45.6 | Increase, as operating lease costs are replaced by 6 depreciations and interest costs, the latter below EBIT |
| Financial income / (costs) | $-5.5$ | $[-]$ -9.7 | Increase due to leases interest costs component 6 booked in finance costs |
| Income tax for the period | 12.8 | $[\sim]$ 13.7 | Lower during the initial years due to higher interest costs |
| Net profit attributable to equity holders | 19.6 | $[-] 21.5$ | Whilst neutral over time, timing effect due to higher interest costs during the initial years |
• Main P&L effects: leases impact depreciations and interest costs; increase in EBITDA and EBIT (as above), long-term neutral to Net profit
■ Main Balance Sheet effects: all leases on Balance Sheet; increase in both tangible assets (RoU) & Net debt (other than financial) of ~€100m
di
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