Investor Presentation • Nov 4, 2020
Investor Presentation
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4 November 2020
This document has been prepared by CTT - Correios de Portugal, S.A. (the "Company" or "CTT") exclusively for use during the presentation of the 9M20 results. As a consequence thereof, this document may not be disclosed or published, nor used by any other person or entity, for any other reason or purpose without the express and prior written consent of CTT. This document (i) may contain summarised information and be subject to amendments and supplements, and (ii) the information contained herein has not been verified, reviewed nor audited by any of the Company's advisors or auditors.
Except as required by applicable law, CTT does not undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any of the information contained in this document. Consequently, the Company does not assume liability for this document if it is used for a purpose other than the above. No express or implied representation, warranty or undertaking is made as to, and no reliance shall be placed on, the accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information or the opinions or statements expressed herein. Neither the Company nor its subsidiaries, affiliates, directors, employees or advisors assume liability of any kind, whether for negligence or any other reason, for any damage or loss arising from any use of this document or its contents. Neither this document nor any part of it constitutes a contract, nor may it be used for incorporation into or construction of any contract or agreement.
This document has an informative nature and does not constitute, nor must it be interpreted as, an offer to sell, issue, exchange or buy any financial instruments (namely any securities issued by CTT or by any of its subsidiaries or affiliates), nor a solicitation of any kind by CTT, its subsidiaries or affiliates. Distribution of this document in certain jurisdictions may be prohibited, and recipients into whose possession this document comes shall be solely responsible for informing themselves about, and observing any such restrictions. Moreover, the recipients of this documentare invited and advised to consult the public information disclosed by CTT on its website (www.ctt.pt) as well as on the Portuguese Securities Exchange Commission's website (www.cmvm.pt). In particular, the contents of this presentation shall be read and understood in light of the financial information disclosed by CTT, through such means, which prevail in regard to any data presented in this document. By attending the meeting where this presentation is made and reading this document, you agree to be bound by the foregoing restrictions.
This presentation contains forward-looking statements. All the statements herein which are not historical facts, including, but not limited to, statements expressing our current opinion or, as applicable, those of our directors regarding the financial performance, the business strategy, the management plans and objectives concerning future operations and investments are forward-looking statements. Statements that include the words "expects", "estimates", "foresees", "predicts", "intends", "plans", "believes", "anticipates", "will", "targets", "may", "would", "could", "continues" and similar statements of a future or forward-looking nature identify forward-looking statements.
All forward-looking statements included herein involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties. Accordingly, there are or will be important factors that could cause our actual results, performance or achievements to differ materially from those indicated in these statements. Any forward-looking statements in this document reflect our current views concerning future events and are subject to these and other risks, uncertainties and assumptions relating to the results of our operations, growth strategy and liquidity, and the wider environment (specifically, market developments, investment opportunities and regulatory conditions).
Although CTT believes that the assumptions bevond such forward-looking statements are reasonable when made, any third parties are cautioned that forward-looking information and statements are subject to various risks and uncertainties, many of which are difficult to predict and generally beyond the control of CTT, what could cause the models, objectives, plans, estimates and / or projections to be materially reviewed and / or actual results and developments to differ materially from those expressed in, or implied or projected by, the forward-looking information and statements.
Forward-looking statements (in particular, the objectives, estimates and projections as well as the corresponding assumptions) do neither represent a commitment regarding the models and plans to be implemented, nor are they guarantees of future performance, nor have they been reviewed by the auditors of CTT. You are cautioned not to place undue reliance on the forward-looking statements herein.
All forward-looking statements included herein speak only as at the date of this presentation. Except as required by applicable law, CTT does not undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.
3Q20 highlights
01
| $\epsilon$ 185.1m Revenue |
|---|
| $\vert$ +0.3% yoy |
| +3.3% excl. elections |
| $\epsilon$ 24.3m EBITDA 1 |
|---|
| $-9.6\%$ yoy |
| -2.7% excl. elections |
| $E12.4m$ EBIT | |
|---|---|
| $-14.6\%$ yoy | |
| $-1.6\%$ excl. elections |
Revenues return to growth, despite the challenging comparison effect $(\epsilon$ 5.3m impact of the legislative elections on 3Q19 revenues)
Addressed mail volumes decline 14.2%, excluding elections, as the structural pressures are exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic
Express & Parcels volumes receive a strong boost from e-commerce, increasing 35.8%, while investments drive market share gains
Banco CTT returned to positive Net profit in the quarter, as revenues growth remains robust, despite stricter lending standards
The steady recovery of retail activity continues. 9M20 public debt placements exceed the prior year's strong performance
Partnership with the Portuguese Institute of Records and Notary to deliver (online) citizen cards to the homes of the Portuguese people, utilizing the digitalization of the economy to increase mail volumes
| Express & Parcels | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA 1 Revenues EBIT |
|||||||
| €46.4m | $E$ 0.9m | $ E$ 0.6m | |||||
| $(+24.5%)$ | $(+199.1\%)$ | $(+82.3%)$ |
| Revenues | EBITDA 1 | EBIT |
|---|---|---|
| €21.3m | €5.4m | €2.7m |
| $(+10.4\%)$ | $(+47.1%)$ | $(+95.5\%)$ |
Growth levers
The build-up of our Iberian Express & Parcels platform continues, with the goal to consolidate the market leadership position in Portugal and increase scale in Spain
New backup facilities in Lisbon & Oporto, new facilities in Barcelona & Valencia (13,500 m2)
New equipment in Madrid & Barcelona with capacity to sort up to 15k parcels / hour
infrastructure and sorting capacity
Despite easing down from very high levels in 2Q20, Spanish parcels stellar growth continued in 3Q20. The recapture of Amazon as a client in Sep-20 will provide an impulse in the subsequent quarters
534.3
9M20
revenues
• Excluding the 321 Crédito effect (inorganic in the first four months of 2020) and the one-time impact of elections (€5.3m) in 3Q19, revenues declined by €12.3m (-2.4%), as strong growth in Express & Parcels and Banco CTT was unable to offset the declines in the legacy businesses, exacerbated by the pandemic
1 Excluding specific items.
2 The business line "Retail sales" of the Mail & other business unit migrated to the Financial Services & Retail business unitin 1Q20 (proforma figures presented for 9M19 throughout the presentation). 3 Including Central Structure.
Operating costs $1$
$\epsilon$ million; % change vs. prior year
Operating costs1 breakdown
$\epsilon$ million; % change vs. prior year
<sup>1 Excluding Specific items & IFRS 16 impacts, depreciation, amortization, impairments and provisions. 2 Including Central Structure. 3 The business line "Retail sales" of the Mail & other business unit migrated to the Financial Services & Retail business unitin 1Q20 (proforma figures presented for 9M19 throughout the presentation).
$\epsilon$ million; impact on cash flow vs. prior year
385.6 Cash & cash equivalents Net Financial Services & other payables 206.5 44.0 Banco CTT liabilities, net Other $3$ 20.4 114.6 Own cash $91.7$ Financial debt Net cash position €23m . . . . . . . . . . 95.7 Leases liabilities (IFRS 16) 72.8 Net financial debt
1The 1Q19 Operating cash flow was restated to be comparable with that of 1Q20. In 2Q19, the methodology for calculating the Operating cash flow changed, in particular regarding the Change in working capital, which no longe allowance.2 Does not consider Employee benefits, net.3 Including€15.4m Banco CTT cash deposits at Bank of Portugal.
03 Guidance update
1 The impact of the upcoming partial confinement measures on the Portuguese economy is still unclear. This guidance update assumes no significant disruptive impacts on the business units' performance from the new confineme
€ million; % change vs. 31 December 2019
Mail profitability impaired by the atypical volumes decline, higher than expected at the start of the year, due to the COVID-19 pandemic
| Revenues 1 $\epsilon$ million; % change vs. prior year |
EBITDA 2 $\epsilon$ million |
EBIT $\epsilon$ million |
||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Transactional Advertising |
€263.3m $(-13.1%)$ €13.0m $(-21.6%)$ |
$-53.2%$ 59.0 |
$-85.7%$ | |||||
| Editorial | €9.4m $(-11.8%)$ | |||||||
| Business Solutions | €12.4m (+58.6%) | 27.6 | 32.7 | |||||
| USO Parcels | €4.7m $(+5.7%)$ | |||||||
| Philately & other 1 | €7.8m $(-26.6%)$ | 4.7 | ||||||
| Total | €310.8m (-12.0%) | 9M19 | 9M20 | 9M19 | 9M20 | |||
| Volumes by type (mitems) | ||||||||
| Matric | Ava mail prices | Addressed mail | Trancactional | Advarticing | Editorial | Linaddressed mail |
| Metric | Avg. mail prices | Addressed mail | ransactional | Advertising | Editorial | Unaddressed mail |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9M20 | N/D | 387.3 | 336.7 | 28.5 | つつ 22.I |
305.3 |
| vs. 9M19 | $-1.5%$ | $17.1\%$ $\sim$ |
$-17.0%$ | $-20.0%$ | 13.2% | $-18.9%$ |
1 Including Central Structure. The business line "Retail sales" of the Mail & other business unit migrated to the Financial Services & Retail business unit in 1Q20 (proforma figures presented for 9M19). 2 Excluding Specific items & IFRS 16 impacts, depreciation, amortization, impairments and provisions.
22
| Revenues Consolidated view; € million; % change vs. prior year |
EBITDA 1,2 $\epsilon$ million |
EBIT 2 $\epsilon$ million |
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portugal | $€81.2m (+15.1%)$ | $+97.7%$ 8.6 |
$\rightarrow$ 5.9 |
||
| Parcels | $£65.2m (+23.2%)$ | eliminations Portugal & |
4.3 | ||
| Cargo | €8.6m $(-9.4%)$ | 0.9 | |||
| Banking network | €5.0m $(+0.0%)$ | ||||
| Logistics | €1.7m $(-25.7%)$ | ||||
| Other | €0.7m $(-15.0%)$ | $-28.9%$ | $-17.1%$ | ||
| Spain | €48.2m (+27.4%) | Spain | |||
| Mozambique | €2.1m $(+22.8%)$ | ||||
| Total | €131.5m (+19.5%) | $-6.2$ | $-7.9$ | $-8.8$ $-10.3$ |
|
| Volumes by region (mitems) | 9M19 | 9M20 | 9M19 9M20 |
||
| Metric | Total | Portugal | Spain | Mozambique | |
| 9M20 | 36.4 | 19.7 | 16.7 | 0.03 | |
| vs. 9M19 | $+34.6%$ | $+27.6%$ | $+44.0%$ | $-29.5%$ |
1 Excluding Specific items & IFRS 16 impacts, depreciation, amortization, impairments and provisions. 2 Individual company views (not consolidated).
| Revenues $\epsilon$ million; % change vs. prior year |
EBITDA 1 $\epsilon$ million |
EBIT $\epsilon$ million |
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net interest income | €12.8m (+40.5%) | $\rightarrow$ | $+107.6\%$ | ||||
| Interest income | €13.5m (+39.3%) | 12.6 | 0.4 | ||||
| Interest expense | $-60.8m(-22.0%)$ | ||||||
| Fees & commissions income | €9.5m (+56.5%) | ||||||
| Own products | €5.8m $(+54.2%)$ | ||||||
| Third-party products | €3.6m $(+60.2%)$ | 0.3 | |||||
| Payments & other | €12.8m $(-16.6%)$ | $-5.9$ | |||||
| 321 Crédito (auto loans) | €24.7m (+99.0%) | 9M19 9M20 |
9M19 | 9M20 | |||
| Total | €59.7m (+39.3%) | ||||||
| Selected Banco CTT Balance sheet indicators | |||||||
| Metric | Assets $(\epsilon m)$ | Cash & equivalents | Investments | Credit to clients (net of impairments) |
Customer deposits $(\epsilon m)$ |
Equity $(\epsilon m)$ / CET 1 Fully implemented (%) |
| Metric | Assets (€m) | Cash & equivalents l | Investments | $\sim$ . $\sim$ (net of impairments) |
$-$ - $ -$ $(\epsilon m)$ |
$-$ q with $\gamma$ ( $-$ CET 1 Fully implemented $(\%)$ |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Sep-20 | ⊥,886.6 | 195.2 | 535.6 | 1,039.6 | 505k current | 1,570.8 | 209.9 / 17.2% |
| vs. 31-Dec-19 | 13.3% | $-5.6%$ | $17.3\%$ | 17.4% | accounts $(+9.4\%)$ |
22.4% ⊥ລ≏ |
$-0.7\%$ / $-1.8$ p.p. |
1 Excluding Specific items & IFRS 16 impacts, depreciation, amortization, impairments and provisions.
| Revenues 1 € million; % change vs. prior year |
EBITDA 2 $\epsilon$ million |
EBIT $\epsilon$ million |
|
|---|---|---|---|
| Savings & insurance | €18.5m $(-3.9%)$ | $+5.2%$ 16.4 15.6 |
$+7.3%$ 16.2 15.1 |
| Money orders | €4.5m (+8.8%) | ||
| Payments | €1.1m $(+24.5%)$ | ||
| Retail products & services | €8.0m $(-9.3%)$ | ||
| Other | €0.1m $(-49.1%)$ | ||
| Total | €32.3m $(-3.3%)$ | 9M20 9M19 |
9M19 9M20 |
| Metric | Savings & insurance flows (€bn) | Placements | Redemptions | Money orders (m ops.) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9M20 | . | of which ت . ے $2.9 (+1.3%)$ |
U.b | --- | |
| vs. 9M19 | $\perp$ . Z /o | public debt 770/ - 1 |
$+6.1\%$ | $+5.4\%$ |
1The business line "Retail sales" of the Mail & other business unit migrated to the Financial Services & Retail business unit in 1Q20 (proforma figures presented for 9M19). 2 Excluding Specific items & IFRS 16 impacts, depreciation, amortization, impairments and provisions.
| Reported | With Banco CTT under equity method | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9M19 | 9M20 | 9M19 | 9M20 | ||
| Revenues | 539.6 | 534.3 | 510.4 | 486.4 | |
| Operating costs | 466.3 | 476.6 | 434.0 | 439.0 | |
| EBITDA | 73.3 | 57.7 | 76.4 | 47.4 | |
| EBITDA including IFRS 16 | 93.7 | 78.6 | 96.4 | 67.8 | |
| Impairments & provisions | 4.0 | 13.2 | 2.2 | 4.7 | |
| Depreciation & amortization | 39.5 | 46.1 | 35.9 | 41.9 | |
| of which IFRS 16 impact | 16.4 | 18.0 | 16.0 | 17.4 | |
| Specific items | 16.0 | 2.1 | 14.7 | 2.1 | |
| EBIT | 34.2 | 17.3 | 43.6 | 19.2 | |
| Net financial income / (costs) | $-7.3$ | $-7.3$ | $-7.3$ | $-7.3$ | |
| of which IFRS 16 impact | $-2.8$ | $-2.5$ | $-2.8$ | $-2.5$ | |
| Associated companies - gains / (losses) | $-0.6$ | $-1.1$ | $-8.3$ | $-2.9$ | |
| Earnings before taxes | 26.3 | 8.9 | 28.0 | 9.0 | |
| Net profit attributable to equity holders | 22.9 | 4.3 | 22.9 | 4.4 |
$\epsilon$ million
| Reported | With Banco CTT under equity method | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31-Dec-19 | 30-Sep-20 | 31-Dec-19 | 30-Sep-20 | |
| Non-current assets | 1,734.7 | 1,923.9 | 615.8 | 614.5 |
| Current assets | 778.8 | 795.6 | 456.9 | 443.2 |
| Assets | 2,513.4 | 2,719.5 | 1,072.8 | 1,057.7 |
| Equity | 131.4 | 136.2 | 131.4 | 136.3 |
| Liabilities | 2,382.0 | 2,583.3 | 941.3 | 921.4 |
| Non-current liabilities | 512.8 | 488.6 | 432.0 | 432.3 |
| Current liabilities | 1,869.2 | 2,094.7 | 509.3 | 489.1 |
| Equity and Liabilities | 2,513.4 | 2,719.5 | 1,072.8 | 1,057.7 |
| Cash flow | Reported | With Banco CTT under equity method | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $\epsilon$ million | 9M19 | 9M20 | $\triangle$ 20/19 | 9M19 | 9M20 | $\triangle$ 20 / 19 |
| EBITDA | 73.3 | 57.7 | $-15.6$ | 76.4 | 47.4 | $-29.0$ |
| Specific items affecting EBITDA | 14.6 | 2.1 | 12.5 | 13.3 | 2.1 | 11.3 |
| Capex | 18.5 | 18.2 | 0.2 | 15.3 | 15.4 | $-0.2$ |
| Change in working capital | $-16.5$ | $-21.3$ | $-4.8$ | $-15.7$ | $-16.1$ | $-0.4$ |
| Operating cash flow 1 | 23.7 | 16.0 | $-7.6$ | 32.2 | 13.8 | $-18.4$ |
| Tax | 3.1 | $-7.9$ | $-11.0$ | 5.3 | $-2.5$ | $-7.8$ |
| Employee benefits | $-10.6$ | $-8.3$ | 2.3 | $-10.6$ | $-8.3$ | 2.3 |
| Free cash flow | 16.2 | $-0.2$ | $-16.3$ | 26.9 | 3.0 | $-23.8$ |
| Debt (principal + interest) | 59.1 | $-0.9$ | $-60.0$ | 59.1 | $-0.9$ | $-60.0$ |
| Dividends | $-15.0$ | 0.0 | 15.0 | $-15.0$ | 0.0 | 15.0 |
| Financial investments & other | $-107.6$ | 0.4 | 107.9 | $-113.6$ | 0.4 | 114.0 |
| Net change in own cash | $-47.3$ | $-0.7$ | 46.6 | $-42.7$ | 2.4 | 45.1 |
| Change in liabilities FS & other & Banco CTT (net) 2 | 22.8 | $-48.9$ | $-71.8$ | 11.8 | $-32.6$ | $-44.4$ |
| Change in other $3$ | 6.3 | $-7.8$ | $-14.1$ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Net change in cash | $-18.2$ | $-57.4$ | $-39.2$ | $-30.9$ | $-30.2$ | 0.7 |
1The 1Q19 operating cash flow was restated to be comparable with that of 1Q20. In 2Q19 the methodology for calculating the operating cash flow changed, in particular with respect to the change in working capital, which no mobility allowance; 2The change in net liabilities of Financial Services and Banco CTT reflects the evolution of credit balances with third parties, depositors or other banking financial labilities, net of the amounts in entities of the CTT Group providing financial services, namely the financial services of CTT, Payshop, Banco CTT and 321 Crédito; 3 The change in other cash items reflects the evolution of Banco CTT's sight deposits at Ban cheques, and impairment of sight and term deposits and bank applications.
$\epsilon$ million
| 9M19 | 9M20 | |
|---|---|---|
| EBIT excluding Specific items | 50.2 | 19.3 |
| Specific items | 16.0 | 2.1 |
| Revenues | $-0.6$ | $-0.6$ |
| Staff costs | 10.0 | 0.8 |
| ES&S & other op. costs | 6.6 | 1.9 |
| EBIT | 34.2 | 17.3 |
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