Investor Presentation • Mar 16, 2021
Investor Presentation
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S CLL
This document has been prepared by CTT - Correios de Portugal, S.A. (the "Company" or "CTT") exclusively for use during the presentation of the full year 2020 results. As a consequence thereof, this document may not be disclosed or published, nor used by any other person or entity, for any other reason or purpose without the express and prior written consent of CTT. This document (i) may contain summarised information and be subject to amendments and supplements, and (ii) the information contained herein has not been verified, reviewed nor audited by any of the Company's advisors or auditors.
Except as required by applicable law, CTT does not undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any of the information contained in this document. Consequently, the Company does not assume liability for this document if it is used for a purpose other than the above. No express or implied representation, warranty or undertaking is made as to, and no reliance shall be placed on, the accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information or the opinions or statements expressed herein. Neither the Company nor its subsidiaries, affiliates, directors, employees or advisors assume liability of any kind, whether for negligence or any other reason, for any damage or loss arising from any use of this document or its contents. Neither this document nor any part of it constitutes a contract, nor may it be used for incorporation into or construction of any contract or agreement.
This document has an informative nature and does not constitute, nor must it be interpreted as, an offer to sell, issue, exchange or buy any financial instruments (namely any securities issued by CTT or by any of its subsidiaries or affiliates), nor a solicitation of any kind by CTT, its subsidiaries or affiliates. Distribution of this document in certain jurisdictions may be prohibited, and recipients into whose possession this document comes shall be solely responsible for informing themselves about, and observing any such restrictions. Moreover, the recipients of this documentare invited and advised to consult the public information disclosed by CTT on its website (www.ctt.pt) as well as on the Portuguese Securities Exchange Commission's website (www.cmvm.pt). In particular, the contents of this presentation shall be read and understood in light of the financial information disclosed by CTT, through such means, which prevail in regard to any data presented in this document. By attending the meeting where this presentation is made and reading this document, you agree to be bound by the foregoing restrictions.
This presentation contains forward-looking statements. All the statements herein which are not historical facts, including, but not limited to, statements expressing our current opinion or, as applicable, those of our directors regarding the financial performance, the business strategy, the management plans and objectives concerning future operations and investments are forward-looking statements. Statements that include the words "expects", "estimates", "foresees", "predicts", "intends", "plans", "believes", "anticipates", "will", "targets", "may", "would", "could", "continues" and similar statements of a future or forward-looking nature identify forward-looking statements.
All forward-looking statements included herein involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties. Accordingly, there are or will be important factors that could cause our actual results, performance or achievements to differ materially from those indicated in these statements. Any forward-looking statements in this document reflect our current views concerning future events and are subject to these and other risks, uncertainties and assumptions relating to the results of our operations, growth strategy and liquidity, and the wider environment (specifically, market developments, investment opportunities and regulatory conditions).
Although CTT believes that the assumptions bevond such forward-looking statements are reasonable when made, any third parties are cautioned that forward-looking information and statements are subject to various risks and uncertainties, many of which are difficult to predict and generally beyond the control of CTT, what could cause the models, objectives, plans, estimates and / or projections to be materially reviewed and / or actual results and developments to differ materially from those expressed in, or implied or projected by, the forward-looking information and statements.
Forward-looking statements (in particular, the objectives, estimates and projections as well as the corresponding assumptions) do neither represent a commitment regarding the models and plans to be implemented, nor are they guarantees of future performance, nor have they been reviewed by the auditors of CTT. You are cautioned not to place undue reliance on the forward-looking statements herein.
All forward-looking statements included herein speak only as at the date of this presentation. Except as required by applicable law, CTT does not undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.
A year marked by the pandemic impact on peoples and companies
4Q20, with the strongest EBITDA1 since 1Q16, delivers on guidance at all levels
Enabling the digital transformation of the Portuguese companies
Strong volumes growth in parcels leads to profitability improvements
Banco CTT reaches the profitability milestone
Stronger counter measures accelerated for restoring mail sustainability, given the pandemic impacts
Taking a leadership role in sustainability
€ million; % change vs. prior year
Partnership with the Portuguese Institute of Records and Notary for home delivery of citizen cards, leveraging on the digitalization of the economy to increase mail volumes. Circa 150k cards were delivered to this date
LEADING COMPANY BANKING bancoctt
2020
ECSI
PORTUGAL
European Customer Satisfaction
Index
• Partnership with EduBox to facilitate top ups of student meal cards in the Payshop network through a digital wallet which enables cashless payments in schools. Currently there are >27k digital wallets
Partnership with the National Association of Pharmacies and Well's to deliver medicines
New facilities in Barcelona $\delta$ Valencia and new sorters in Madrid & Barcelona, with capacity for 15k parcels/hour
New brand launched in Spain (CTT Express), positioning for the strong growth ahead
Launch of premium international next-day delivery and 2-men delivery services
"Green delivery" partnership with Nespresso for customers' orders to be delivered in electric vehicles
Launch of SME online shops creation initiative, with >1,800 SMEs registered
Tu red
ibérica de envíos
Express & Parcels volumes
million items; % change vs. prior year
Weaker than expected recovery of mail volumes in 2H20 led to double-digit decline in mail revenues for the year, despite very strong growth in Business Solutions and USO Parcels
Public debt placements
€ million; % change vs. prior year
Public debt placements benefited from a very strong start of the year with large amounts of certificates maturing in January; however, they were also impacted by the unprecedent restrictions on the movement of people in 2Q20 and the partial lockdown in 4Q20
m operations; % change vs. prior year
Money orders grew due to the partnerships with the Government for the payment of unemployment and other social subsidies, reaffirming CTT's continued commitment to public service
Alignment with the UN Sustainable Development Goals1
Sectt
$\overline{CO_2}$ tons (scopes 1+2+3) vs. 2013 base year (CTT science-based target)
CTT is committed to reduce absolute emissions by 30% (scopes 1, 2 and 3) by 2025, using 2013 as the base year
$\text{CDP}^{\text{TM}}$ CTT distinguished with the highest score of Carbon Disclosure Project climate change rating
CTT ranked 2nd among 19 postal operators worldwide in the International Post Corporation sustainability program
Decrease in energy consumption
Driven by decreases in electricity and fuel consumption
The largest ecological transport and distribution fleet in Portugal
Decrease in road accidents
As a result of prevention and training efforts and the lockdown measures
Project to protect the national forest attained remarkable adherence
11 SUSTAINABLE CITI
1 CTT prioritized 8 Goals for the preservation of the planet and the dignity of human beings through its value chain: SDG 3; SDG 4; SDG 7; SDG 8; SDG 11; SDG 12; SDG 12; SDG 13; and SDG 16 (listed on the right-hand side
€ million; % change vs. prior year
| Quarter | Full year | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4Q19 | 4Q20 | $\Delta\%$ | 2019 | 2020 | $\Delta\%$ | |
| Revenues 1 | 200.7 | 211.0 | 5.1% | 740.3 | 745.2 | 0.7% |
| Operating costs $1$ | 172.5 | 178.1 | 3.3% | 638.8 | 654.7 | 2.5% |
| EBITDA 1 | 28.2 | 32.8 | 16.4% | 101.5 | 90.5 | $-10.8%$ |
| EBITDA including IFRS 16 | 34.6 | 40.3 | 16.4% | 128.3 | 118.9 | $-7.3%$ |
| Specific items | 2.2 | 4.9 | 120.8% | 18.2 | 7.0 | $-61.7%$ |
| EBIT | 13.0 | 17.2 | 32.1% | 47.3 | 34.5 | $-27.0%$ |
| Tax | 2.8 | 1.9 | $-32.6\%$ | 6.2 | 6.4 | 1.9% |
| Net profit attributable to equity holders | 6.3 | 12.3 | 94.5% | 29.2 | 16.7 | $-42.9%$ |
| Free cash flow | 16.2 | 22.0 | 36.1% | 32.3 | 21.8 | $-32.4%$ |
| 1 Excluding Specific items & IFRS 16 impacts, depreciation, amortization, impairments and provisions. | The strongest quarterly performance since 1Q16 |
Tax expenses are not directly comparable between periods, due to the one-time tax refund of €6.8m received in 2019 and the tax credit of €3.3m recognized in 4Q20 |
Strong growth in Express & Parcels and Banco CTT was offset by declines in Mail & other and Financial Services & Retail revenues, pressured by the impacts of the pandemic. $\bullet$ Excluding the 321 Crédito effect (inorganic in the first 4 months of 2020) & the one-time impact of elections ( $\epsilon$ 5.3m in 2019), revenues were practically flat, declining by $\epsilon$ 2.6m (-0.4%)
1 Excluding Specific items.2 Including Central Structure.
3 The business line "Retail sales" of the Mail & other business unit migrated to the Financial Services & Retail business unitin 1Q20 (proforma figures presented for FY19 throughout the presentation).
Excluding the inorganic effect of 321 Crédito (in the first 4 months of 2020):
1 Excluding Specific items & IFRS 16 impacts, depreciation, amortization, impairments and provisions.2 Including Central Structure. 3 The business line "Retail sales" of the Mail & other business unit migrated to the Financial Services & Retail business unit in 1Q20 (proforma figures presented for FY19 throughout the presentation).
The business interruption in Mail during the lockdown and the subsequent slow recovery weighed on profitability, given the unsustainable regulatory & pricing framework
1 Including Central Structure.2 The business line "Retail sales" of the Mail & other business unit migrated to the Financial Services & Retail business unit in 1Q20 (proforma figures presented for FY19 throughout the pre 3 Excluding Specific items & IFRS 16 impacts, depreciation, amortization, impairments and provisions.
FY20 Cash flow
| $(+)$ Cash & cash equivalents | 518.2 |
|---|---|
| (-) Net Financial Services & other payables | 235.7 |
| (-) Banco CTT liabilities, net 2 | 127.7 |
| $(-)$ Other $3$ | 19.4 |
| $(=)$ Own cash | 135.4 |
| $(-)$ Financial debt | 91.7 |
| (=) Net cash position | 43.8 |
| $(-)$ Lease liabilities (IFRS 16) 4 | 115.2 |
| Net financial debt 1 | 71.4 |
1 Does not consider Employee benefits, net.2 The change in net liabilities of Financial Services and Banco CTT reflects the evolution of credit balances with third parties, depositors or other banking financial liabili securities/banking financial assets, of entities of the CTT Group providing financial services, namely CTT financial services, Payshop, Banco CTT and 321 Crédito.3 The change in other cash items reflects the evolution of cheques/clearing of Banco CTT cheques, and impairment of sight and term deposits and bank applications.4 Increase of + €31.3m of lease liabilities (IFRS16) following the revision of the terms of those contracts. This rev interpretation of the IFRS16 Interpretation Committee on the concept of lease term, which essentially determines that an entity should assess whether the contract is enforceable beyond the period in which it can be cancell contract, but also its broader economic aspects.
Strategy & guidance update
03
Million items; CAGR (%)
| Mail Universal Service Obligation |
• It is critical to redefine a new sustainable concession contract in 2021, to restore the pricing lever and improve operational flexibility • For CTT to remain the universal postal service provider, the contract terms need to improve substantially • A governmental working group has been set up to establish the basis of the new terms for the future concession contract, in line with the aforementioned concerns |
|---|---|
| Compensation & Contract Rebalancing |
• Given the unilateral decision by the Government to extend the existing concession contract until 31 December 2021 without amendments, the contractual financial terms require revision • In addition, given the impacts of the pandemic, CTT is seeking special compensation for 2020 • The compensation (2020) and the rebalancing (2021) formal procedures have already been launched |
| Registered | Standard occasional | Europe Mail prices | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPP 1 Adjusted to Portugal Price not adj. |
Implicit 2021 CTT price increase to normalize |
PPP 1 Adjusted to Portugal Price not adj. |
Implicit 2021 CTT price increase to normalize |
Portugal Price not adj. |
PPP 1 Adjusted to Implicit 2021 CTT price increase to normalize |
||
| CTT | $\epsilon$ 2.35 1,2 | $\epsilon$ 0.53 | $E$ 0.88 | In addition, | |||
| Peer 1 | €5.41 €7.27 |
130% | €0.82 £1.10 |
54% | £1.42 £1.91 |
62% | there are peers |
| Peer 2 | € 6.50 E9.05 |
177% | €0.69 €0.96 |
30% | £1.11 £1.55 |
26% | receiving subsidies to |
| Peer 3 | €1.86 £2.25 |
$-21%$ | €0.54 £0.66 |
3% | €1.40 £1.70 |
59% | compensate the USO costs |
| Peer 4 | €2.51 €3.30 |
7% | €0.61 E0.80 |
15% | €0.84 £1.10 |
$-5%$ | (e.g.: Poste Italiane will receive a $E1.3$ |
| Peer 5 | $E$ 2.33 $E$ 3.15 |
$-1%$ | € $0.55$ € 0.74 |
3% | €0.74 £1.00 |
$-16%$ | billion state aid 3 for the period |
| Peer 6 | €5.82 €6.90 |
148% | €0.93 £1.10 |
75% | €0.97 £1.15 |
10% | 2020-2024, maximum yearly |
| Average | €4.07 | 73% | €0.69 | 30% | €1.08 | 23% | compensation of €262 million) |
1 Purchasing power parities, Source: Eurostat.2 Registered product, used as a baseline comparison with all comparable versions of peer's registered products (i.e., D+1, signature collection and single purchase, except prices according to websites published 2021 prices.3 Source: European Commission SA.55270.
Asctt
1 Distance presented corresponds to indicative distance per route
| E-commerce offer | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 冊 | 83 | $\chi$ | $\frac{1}{\sqrt{2}}$ | |||
| $\overline{\textsf{Chain}}$ | Marketing / Advertising |
Online sales | Payments | Logistics | Dispatch | Reception | Returns |
| Online and physical marketing |
$\text{d} \text{d} \text{t}_{\text{pt}}$ | -------------------------------------- payshop |
Traditional logistics |
Modular E&P offer Partnerships Uber OLX Shopkit |
Pick-up & Drop-off points |
Easy return solutions |
|
| Solutions | campaigns | Online Shops creation |
Physical $\mathbf{\hat{x}}$ |
Same-day delivery |
Traditional logistics |
||
| ctt Ads | ctt Comércio Local |
Digital | E-fulfillment | cttnow | Parcel lockers | E-fulfillment |
Percentage of e-commerce in retail sales
Both Portugal and Spain are still lagging in e-commerce as % of total retail when compared to EU peers...
... while in 2020 both countries narrowed the gap, growing by 53% and 41% respectively, this trend should continue with key e-tailers making their way into Iberia
• Unit costs improvement since September 2020 due to the onboarding of new large e-tailer clients & continuous investment in automation
1 Individual company views (not consolidated). Portugal's margin including intercompany eliminations.
| Key priorities | 321 | Example 2 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer credit | Auto loans | Mortgage loans | Payments | Deposits & savings | |||
| Reinforce digital player nature Leverage on digital channels, with simplified underwriting, raising client consideration and |
Accelerate growth Increase commercial presence and diversify commercial channels, based on a recently deployed technological platform |
Sustain growth Continue the growth path while protecting profitability and ensuring significant footprint among credit intermediaries |
Refund business model Evolve to digital era, from cash to digital payments services provider Increase value |
Convert into value Monetize client base through commissions and product penetration (including low capital) demand products, e.g. off-Balance sheet |
|||
| product penetration | extracted from current agents |
savings) |
Positioning as a mostly digital consumer credit & retail bank
The agent that best combines physical & digital dimensions in supporting companies' digitalization, with particular emphasis on e-commerce
Mail revenues generation and profitability levels significantly impaired by the atypical volumes decline in 2020, higher than expected at the start of the year, due to the pandemic
| Metric | Avg. mail prices | Addressed mail | Transactional | Advertising | Editorial | Unaddressed mail |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY20 | N/D $1.4\%$ after |
516.9 | 447.2 | 39.7 | 30.0 | 412.3 |
| vs. FY19 | quality of service level $+1.8%$ penalties |
$-16.5%$ | $-16.6%$ | $-17.6\%$ | $-13.7\%$ | $-20.9%$ |
1 Including Central Structure. The business line "Retail sales" of the Mail & other business unit migrated to the Financial Services & Retail business unit in 1Q20 (proforma figures presented for FY19). 2 Excluding Specific items & IFRS 16 impacts, depreciation, amortization, impairments and provisions.
1 Excluding Specific items & IFRS 16 impacts, depreciation, amortization, impairments and provisions. 2 Individual company views (not consolidated).
| Metric | Assets $(\epsilon m)$ | Cash & equivalents | Investments | Credit to clients l (net of impairments) |
Customer deposits $(\epsilon$ m) |
Equity $(\epsilon m)$ / $CET 1$ Fully implemented $(\% )$ |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31-Dec-20 | .,999.9 | 270.6 | 517.8 | 1,093.3 | 517k current | 1,689.1 | $211.7/16.8\%$ |
| vs. 31-Dec-19 | $-20.0\%$ | +30.9% | $-13.5%$ | $+23.4%$ | accounts $(+12.2\%)$ |
$+31.6%$ | $+0.2\%$ / $-2.2$ p.p. |
1 Excluding Specific items & IFRS 16 impacts, depreciation, amortization, impairments and provisions.
Financial Services & Retail provides a solid contribution to group profitability, despite the challenging environment for brick-and-mortar retail
| Metric | Savings & insurance flows $(\epsilon$ bn) | Placements | Redemptions | Money orders (m ops.) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY20 | 3.8 of which $3.8(-2.0\%)$ |
0.8 | + J.Z | |
| vs. FY19 | $-3.8%$ | public debt $-3.4\%$ |
$-5.7\%$ | $7.6\%$ |
1 The business line "Retail sales" of the Mail & other business unit migrated to the Financial Services & Retail business unit in 1Q20 (proforma figures presented for FY19). 2 Excluding Specific items & IFRS 16 impacts, depreciation, amortization, impairments and provisions.
| Income statement $\epsilon$ million |
Reported | With Banco CTT under equity method |
||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2020 | 2019 | 2020 | |
| Revenues | 740.3 | 745.2 | 695.3 | 679.2 |
| Operating costs | 638.8 | 654.7 | 593.0 | 604.5 |
| EBITDA | 101.5 | 90.5 | 102.3 | 74.7 |
| EBITDA including IFRS 16 | 128.3 | 118.9 | 128.5 | 102.3 |
| Impairments & provisions | 8.6 | 15.3 | 5.7 | 6.1 |
| Depreciation & amortization | 54.2 | 62.1 | 49.4 | 56.3 |
| of which IFRS 16 impact | 21.6 | 24.5 | 21.0 | 23.7 |
| Specific items | 18.2 | 7.0 | 16.7 | 6.8 |
| EBIT | 47.3 | 34.5 | 56.7 | 33.2 |
| Net financial income / (costs) | $-10.4$ | $-9.6$ | $-10.3$ | $-9.6$ |
| of which IFRS 16 impact | $-3.7$ | $-3.3$ | $-3.6$ | $-3.2$ |
| Associated companies – gains / (losses) | $-1.4$ | $-1.7$ | $-9.4$ | $-1.5$ |
| Earnings before taxes | 35.5 | 23.1 | 37.0 | 22.2 |
| Net profit attributable to equity holders | 29.2 | 16.7 | 29.2 | 16.7 |
| CILINATION | Reported | With Banco CTT under equity method |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31-Dec-19 | 31-Dec-20 | 31-Dec-19 | 31-Dec-20 | |||
| Non-current assets | 1,734.7 | 1,984.3 | 615.8 | 638.8 | ||
| Current assets | 778.8 | 910.6 | 456.9 | 484.0 | ||
| Assets | 2,513.4 | 2,894.9 | 1,072.8 | 1,122.8 | ||
| Equity | 131.4 | 150.3 | 131.4 | 150.3 | ||
| Liabilities | 2,382.0 | 2,744.6 | 941.3 | 972.5 | ||
| Non-current liabilities | 512.8 | 493.4 | 432.0 | 444.0 | ||
| Current liabilities | 1,869.2 | 2,251.2 | 509.3 | 528.5 | ||
| Equity and Liabilities | 2,513.4 | 2,894.9 | 1,072.8 | 1,122.8 | ||
| Cash flow | Reported | With Banco CTT under equity method | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $\epsilon$ million | 2019 | 2020 | $\triangle$ 20/19 | 2019 | 2020 | $\triangle$ 20/19 |
| EBITDA | 101.5 | 90.5 | $-11.0$ | 102.3 | 74.7 | $-27.6$ |
| Specific items affecting EBITDA | 16.8 | 7.0 | $-9.9$ | 15.3 | 6.8 | $-8.6$ |
| Capex | 45.4 | 33.4 | $-12.0$ | 39.0 | 27.2 | $-11.8$ |
| Change in working capital | 5.3 | $-7.2$ | $-12.5$ | 3.9 | $-2.5$ | $-6.4$ |
| Operating cash flow | 44.5 | 42.9 | $-1.6$ | 51.9 | 38.2 | $-13.7$ |
| Tax | 2.2 | $-9.0$ | $-11.2$ | 5.2 | $-2.6$ | $-7.8$ |
| Employee benefits | $-14.4$ | $-12.1$ | $+2.3$ | $-14.4$ | $-12.1$ | $+2.3$ |
| Free cash flow | 32.3 | 21.8 | $-10.5$ | 42.7 | 23.5 | $-19.2$ |
| Debt (principal + interest) | 59.3 | $-1.5$ | $-60.9$ | 59.3 | $-1.5$ | $-60.9$ |
| Dividends | $-15.0$ | 0.0 | $+15.0$ | $-15.0$ | 0.0 | $+15.0$ |
| Financial investments & other | $-107.6$ | $-0.3$ | $+107.3$ | $-133.6$ | $-0.3$ | $+133.3$ |
| Net change in own cash | $-30.9$ | 20.0 | $+51.0$ | $-46.5$ | 21.7 | 68.3 |
| Change in liabilities FS & other & Banco CTT (net) $1$ | 30.9 | 63.9 | $+33.0$ | 37.4 | $-3.5$ | $-40.8$ |
| Change in other 2 | 20.3 | $-8.8$ | $-29.0$ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Net change in cash | 20.3 | 75.2 | $+54.9$ | $-9.2$ | 18.3 | 27.5 |
1 The change in net liabilities of Financial Services and Banco CTT reflects the evolution of credit balances with third parties, depositors or other banking financial liabilities, net of the amounts invested in credit or Group providing financial services, namely the financial services of CTT, Payshop, Banco CTT and 321 Crédito.2 The change in other cash items reflects the evolution of Banco CTT's sight deposits at Bank of Portugal, outs of sight and term deposits and bank applications.
$Emillion$
| Reported | €0.7m capital gain related to the sale of 3 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2020 | non-strategic real estate assets | |
| EBIT excluding Specific items | 65.5 | 41.5 | |
| Specific items | 18.2 | 7.0 | €3.9m of Staff costs of which $€2.9m$ related to the HR optimization program |
| Revenues | $-0.6$ | $-0.7$ | |
| Staff costs | 11.9 | 3.9 | $\epsilon$ 3.8m of ES&S & other operating costs, |
| ES&S & other op. costs | 7.0 | 3.8 | of which €1.1m related to COVID-19, €1.1m of regulatory fines and €0.9m of |
| EBIT | 47.3 | 34.5 | strategic studies (mainly related to the future renegotiation of the concession) |
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