Earnings Release • Aug 8, 2024
Earnings Release
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Brussels, 8 August 2024 (07.00 a.m. CEST)
| KBC Group – overview (consolidated, IFRS) | 2Q2024 | 1Q2024 | 2Q2023 | 1H2024 | 1H2023 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net result (in millions of EUR) | 925 | 506 | 966 | 1 431 | 1 848 |
| Basic earnings per share (in EUR) | 2.25 | 1.18 | 2.29 | 3.44 | 4.37 |
| Breakdown of the net result by business unit (in millions of EUR) | |||||
| Belgium | 519 | 243 | 576 | 761 | 875 |
| Czech Republic | 244 | 197 | 276 | 441 | 461 |
| International Markets | 224 | 146 | 190 | 370 | 298 |
| Group Centre | -61 | -80 | -76 | -141 | 215 |
| Parent shareholders' equity per share (in EUR, end of period) | 53.2 | 54.9 | 51.2 | 53.2 | 51.2 |
'We recorded a net profit of 925 million euros in the second quarter of 2024. Compared to the result for the previous quarter, our total income benefited from several factors, including higher levels of net interest income, higher net fee and commission income, solid insurance revenues and better trading & fair value income, as well as the seasonal peak in dividend income. Costs were down significantly, since the bulk of the bank and insurance taxes for the full year is always recorded in the first quarter of the year. Disregarding bank and insurance taxes, costs edged up by 1% quarter-on-quarter. Loan loss impairment charges were up on the very modest level recorded in the previous quarter, resulting in – what is still – a very low credit cost ratio of 9 basis points in the first half of 2024.
Consequently, when adding up the results for the first and second quarters, our net profit for the first half of 2024 amounted to 1 431 million euros. At first sight, this is much lower than the result for the year-earlier period, but that period had benefited from a positive 0.4-billion-euro one-off gain on the sale of the Irish loan and deposit books. Excluding that one-off gain, our half-yearly profit was in line with the year-earlier figure.
Our loan portfolio continued to expand, increasing by 2% quarter-on-quarter and by 4% year-on-year, with growth being recorded in each of the group's core countries. Customer deposits were up 2% quarter-on-quarter and were stable year-onyear. The share of bank and insurance products sold digitally continued to rise: based on a selection of core products, around 55% of our banking and 27% of insurance products were sold through a digital channel, up from 50% and 24% a year ago. Of paramount importance in our digitalisation journey is our personal digital assistant Kate, which we continuously develop further with the aim of ensuring maximum convenience for and support of our customers. To date, around 4.8 million customers have already used Kate, an increase of approximately 40% on the year-earlier figure.
Our solvency position remained strong, with a fully loaded common equity ratio of 15.1% at the end of June 2024. The solvency ratio for KBC Insurance under the Solvency II framework amounted to 200%. Our liquidity position remained very solid too, as illustrated by an LCR of 160% and NSFR of 139%.
To summarise, our overall performance in the first half of 2024 was excellent yet again.
As regards our share buyback programme, which started in August 2023 and ended on July 31st, 2024, we have bought back a total of approximately 21 million shares for a total consideration of 1.3 billion euros. In line with our general dividend policy, we will pay an interim dividend of 1 euro per share in November 2024 as an advance on the total dividend for financial year 2024. Furthermore, we also decided to increase our guidance for net interest income for full-year 2024 to 5.5 billion euros ballpark figure, up from our initial guidance of 5.3 to 5.5 billion euros.
I'd like to take this opportunity to sincerely thank all our employees for their contribution to our group's continued success.
I also wish to thank all our customers, shareholders and all other stakeholders for their trust and support, and to assure them that we remain committed to being the reference in bank-insurance and innovation in all our home markets.'

Johan Thijs Chief Executive Officer



| Consolidated income statement, IFRS, | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KBC Group (simplified; in millions of EUR) | 2Q2024 | 1Q2024 | 4Q2023 | 3Q2023 | 2Q2023 | 1H2024 | 1H2023 |
| Net interest income | 1 379 | 1 369 | 1 360 | 1 382 | 1 407 | 2 748 | 2 731 |
| Insurance revenues before reinsurance | 726 | 714 | 683 | 699 | 666 | 1 441 | 1 297 |
| Non-life Life |
613 114 |
598 116 |
584 99 |
587 113 |
567 100 |
1 211 230 |
1 109 188 |
| Dividend income | 26 | 7 | 12 | 10 | 30 | 33 | 37 |
| Net result from financial instruments at fair value | |||||||
| through P&L and Insurance finance income and expense 1 |
3 | -55 | -40 | -8 | 33 | -52 | 57 |
| Net fee and commission income | 623 | 614 | 600 | 588 | 584 | 1 237 | 1 160 |
| Net other income | 51 | 58 | 60 | 44 | 54 | 109 | 552 |
| Total income | 2 809 | 2 708 | 2 674 | 2 715 | 2 775 | 5 516 | 5 835 |
| Operating expenses (excl. directly attributable from | |||||||
| insurance) | -950 | -1 431 | -1 085 | -1 011 | -1 019 | -2 381 | -2 520 |
| Total operating expenses excluding bank and insurance taxes |
-1 074 | -1 063 | -1 169 | -1 101 | -1 090 | -2 137 | -2 167 |
| Total bank and insurance taxes | -2 | -518 | -36 | -29 | -51 | -521 | -622 |
| Minus: operating expenses allocated to insurance service expenses |
126 | 150 | 120 | 119 | 123 | 276 | 270 |
| Insurance service expenses before reinsurance | -590 | -563 | -567 | -540 | -523 | -1 152 | -1 013 |
| Of which Insurance commission paid | -92 | -89 | -94 | -87 | -82 | -181 | -159 |
| Non-Life | -514 | -489 | -509 | -485 | -457 | -1 003 | -876 |
| Life | -76 | -73 | -58 | -55 | -66 | -149 | -138 |
| Net result from reinsurance contracts held | -24 | -18 | -16 | -22 | -22 | -41 | -52 |
| Impairment Of which: on financial assets at amortised cost and at fair |
-85 | -16 | -170 | -63 | -8 | -101 | 18 |
| value through other comprehensive income2 Share in results of associated companies & joint |
-72 | -16 | 5 | -36 | 23 | -88 | 47 |
| ventures | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | -4 |
| Result before tax | 1 162 | 680 | 836 | 1 079 | 1 202 | 1 842 | 2 264 |
| Income tax expense | -237 | -175 | -159 | -203 | -236 | -412 | -416 |
| Result after tax | 925 | 506 | 677 | 877 | 966 | 1 431 | 1 848 |
| attributable to minority interests | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| attributable to equity holders of the parent | 925 | 506 | 677 | 877 | 966 | 1 431 | 1 848 |
| Basic earnings per share (EUR) | 2.25 | 1.18 | 1.59 | 2.07 | 2.29 | 3.44 | 4.37 |
| Diluted earnings per share (EUR) | 2.25 | 1.18 | 1.59 | 2.07 | 2.29 | 3.44 | 4.37 |
| Key consolidated balance sheet figures, IFRS, KBC Group (in millions of EUR) |
30-06-2024 | 31-03-2024 | 31-12-2023 | 30-09-2023 | 30-06-2023 | ||
| Total assets | 361 945 | 359 477 | 346 921 | 358 453 | 368 077 | ||
| Loans & advances to customers | 187 502 | 183 722 | 183 613 | 181 821 | 182 005 | ||
| Securities (equity and debt instruments) | 73 941 | 73 561 | 73 696 | 72 765 | 71 839 | ||
| Deposits from customers (excl. debt certificates) | 221 817 | 216 271 | 216 423 | 214 203 | 224 710 | ||
| Insurance contract liabilities | 16 521 | 16 602 | 16 784 | 15 920 | 16 295 | ||
| Liabilities under investment contracts, insurance | 14 780 | 14 319 | 13 461 | 12 655 | 12 751 | ||
| Total equity | 22 936 | 23 917 | 24 260 | 23 865 | 22 853 | ||
| Selected ratios KBC Group (consolidated) Return on equity3 |
1H2024 | FY2023 | |||||
| Cost/income ratio, group | 13% | 16% | |||||
| - excl. non-operating items and evenly spreading bank and insurance taxes throughout the year - excl. all bank and insurance taxes |
46% 42% |
49% 43% |
|||||
| Combined ratio, non-life insurance | 87% | 87% | |||||
| Common equity ratio (CET1), Basel III, Danish Compromise. | |||||||
| - fully loaded - transitional |
15.1% 14.7% |
15.2% 13.8% |
|||||
| Credit cost ratio4 | |||||||
| Impaired loans ratio | 0.09% | 0.00% | |||||
| for loans more than 90 days past due | 2.1% 1.1% |
2.1% 1.0% |
|||||
| Net stable funding ratio (NSFR) | 139% | 136% | |||||
| Liquidity coverage ratio (LCR) | 160% | 159% |
1 As of , we have o ined 'Net result fro finan ial instru ents at fair value throu h P&L' (also referred to as 'Tradin & fair value in o e') and ' nsuran e finan e in o e and expense' in one P&L line for the sa e of simplification. The figures for past periods have been retroactively restated. Also referred to as 'Loan loss i pair ent'.
3 15% in the first half of 2024 (and also 15% for full-year 2023) when non-operating items are excluded and bank and insurance taxes evenly spread throughout the year.
4 A negative figure indicates a net impairment release (positively affecting results).
+4% quarter-on-quarter and +1% year-on-year
Net interest income amounted to 1 379 million euros in the quarter under review, up 1% quarter-on-quarter and down 2% year-on-year. The 1% quarter-on-quarter increase was due mainly to continued increasing reinvestment yields (positively impacting our commercial transformation result), the higher level of interest income from lending activities (loan volume growth more than offsetting pressure on loan margins in some core markets), higher interest income from inflation-linked bonds and the lower funding cost of participations. These items were offset in part by lower interest income on customer term deposits, lower interest income on saving accounts in Belgium (due to the higher fidelity premium), a lower ALM result, higher subordinated and wholesale funding costs and lower interest income from shortterm cash management activities. The 2% year-on-year decrease was attributable primarily to lower lending income (pressure on lending margins in some core markets not fully offset by loan volume growth), lower interest income in Ireland (following the sale of the loan and deposit portfolios), higher costs related to the minimum required reserves held with central banks, higher funding costs of participations and higher wholesale funding costs, lower interest income from short-term cash management activities, lower interest income from the dealing room, and a negative forex effect (depreciation of the Czech koruna and Hungarian forint). These items were partly offset by an increase in the commercial transformation result, a higher ALM result and increased interest income from customer term deposits. The net interest margin for the quarter under review amounted to 2.10%, up 2 basis points quarter-on-quarter and down 1 basis point year-on-year. For guidance regarding expected net interest income in 2024 and the years to come, please refer to the se tion entitled 'Our uidan e'.
Customer loan volume (188 billion euros) was up 2% quarter-on-quarter and 4% year-on-year. Customer deposits excluding debt certificates (222 billion euros) were up 2% quarter-on-quarter and stable year-on-year. When excluding volatile, low-margin short-ter deposits at K an 's forei n ran hes (driven y short-term cash management opportunities), customer deposits were up 2% quarter-on-quarter and down 1% year-on-year. In the growth figures above, the forex-related impact and the effects of changes in the scope of consolidation have been eliminated.
The insurance service result (insurance revenues before reinsurance – insurance service expenses before reinsurance + net result from reinsurance contracts held; the two latter items are not part of total income) amounted to 113 million euros and breaks down into 76 million euros for non-life insurance and 37 million euros for life insurance. The non-life insurance service result decreased by 19% quarter-on-quarter and by 14% year-on-year, in both cases essentially owing to a combination of higher insurance service expenses (higher claims) and a worse reinsurance result, but partly offset by higher insurance revenues. The life insurance service result fell by 8% quarter-on-quarter due essentially to increased insurance service expenses and slightly lower insurance revenues, partly offset by a better reinsurance result. It was 11% higher than the result for the year-earlier quarter, as increased insurance revenues more than offset the higher level of insurance service expenses.
The combined ratio of the non-life insurance activities amounted to an excellent 87% for the first six months of 2024, the same level as for full-year 2023. Non-life insurance sales came to 623 million euros, up 8% year-on-year, with growth in all countries and all classes. Sales of life insurance products amounted to 620 million euros and were down 19% on the high level recorded in the previous quarter (which, among other things, had benefited from high sales of unit-linked life insurance products attributable to the launch of a new structured product and commercial campaigns in Belgium). Life insurance sales were down 15% on the high level recorded in the year-earlier quarter, due entirely to lower sales of unit-linked products. Overall, the share of guaranteed-interest products and unit-linked products in our life insurance sales in the quarter under review amounted to 36% and 57%, respectively, with hybrid products (mainly in the Czech Republic) accounting for the remainder.
For guidance regarding expected insurance revenues and the combined ratio in 2024 and the years to come, please refer to the se tion entitled 'Our uidan e'.
Net fee and commission income amounted to 623 million euros, up 1% and 7% on its level in the previous and yearearlier quarters, respectively. The quarter-on-quarter increase was attributable to 2% growth in fee income from both our asset management activities (thanks primarily to higher management fees) and our banking activities (thanks mainly to increased payment services fees, which more than compensated for the decrease in securities-relates fees), partly offset by seasonally lower distribution fees for non-life insurance products. The 7% year-on-year increase was attributable to an 11% increase in fees for our asset management services (due entirely to higher management fees) and a 2% increase in banking fees, slightly offset by a negative forex effect. At the end of June 2024, our total assets under management amounted to 262 billion euros, up 2% quarter-on-quarter (+1 percentage point related to net inflows and +1 percentage point related to the quarter-on-quarter positive market performance). Assets under management grew by as much as 17% year-on-year, with net inflows accounting for +6 percentage points and the positive market performance for +10 percentage points.
Trading & fair value income and insurance finance income and expense amounted to 3 million euros, up 58 million euros quarter-on-quarter and down 30 million euros year-on-year. The quarter-on-quarter increase was attributable mainly to the higher result from derivatives used for asset/liability management purposes, partly offset by lower dealing room results (given the strong results in the previous quarter). Year-on-year, the decrease was mostly related to the lower result from derivatives used for asset/liability management purposes.
The other remaining income items included dividend income of 26 million euros (compared to 7 million in the previous quarter, as the second quarter of the year traditionally includes the bulk of dividend income for the year) and net other income of 51 million euros, fully in line with (50-million-euro) normal run rate.
The quarter-on-quarter comparison of operating expenses is distorted by the fact that the bulk of the bank and insurance taxes for the full year is traditionally recorded in the first quarter of the year. In the second quarter of 2024, these taxes amounted to 2 million euros, whereas they came to 518 million euros in the previous quarter and 51 million euros in the second quarter of 2023. The year-on-year decrease was accounted for primarily by lower national levies (mainly in Hungary) and a partial reversal of the contribution to the deposit guarantee fund in Belgium (lower calculation base than anticipated by the government) in the quarter under review. Note: to tackle the budget deficit, the Hungarian government recently announced additional bank and insurance taxes for the second half of 2024, which could amount to up to 40 million euros for K&H.
Total operating expenses excluding bank and insurance taxes amounted to 1 074 million euros in the second quarter of 2024, up by 1% on their level in the previous quarter, owing mainly to higher staff costs (mainly wage drift, partly offset by lower FTEs), higher ICT expenses and seasonally higher marketing expenses, partly offset by decreasing costs in Ireland (following the sale of the loan and deposit portfolios).
Operating expenses excluding bank and insurance taxes were down 2% on their year-earlier level, due for the most part to lower costs related to Ireland (as a consequence of the sale of the portfolios there) and a forex effect, partly offset by higher staff costs (inflation and wage indexation).
When certain non-operating items are excluded and bank and insurance taxes spread evenly throughout the year, the cost/income ratio for the first six months of 2024 amounted to 46%, compared to 49% for full-year 2023. When excluding all bank and insurance taxes, the cost-income ratio improved to 42%, compared to 43% for full-year 2023.
For guidance regarding expected operating expenses and the cost/income ratio in 2024 and the years to come, please refer to the se tion entitled 'Our uidan e'.
versus a 16-million-euro net charge in the previous quarter and a 23-million-euro net release in the year-earlier quarter
In the quarter under review, we recorded a 72-million-euro net loan loss impairment charge, as opposed to a net charge of 16 million euros in the previous quarter and a net release of 23 million euros in the year-earlier quarter. The net impairment charge in the quarter under review included a charge of 58 million euros in respect of our loan book and a charge of 14 million euros following the update of the reserve for geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainties. As a consequence, the outstanding reserve for geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainties amounted to 237 million euros at the end of June 2024.
For the entire group, the credit cost ratio amounted to 0.09% for the first six months of 2024 (0.10% excluding the changes in the reserve for geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainties), compared to 0.00% for full-year 2023 (0.07% excluding the changes in the reserve for geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainties). At the end of June , . % of our total loan oo was lassified as i paired ('Sta e 3'), the sa e level as at year-end 2023. Impaired loans that are more than 90 days past due amounted to 1.1% of the loan book, compared to 1.0% as at year-end 2023.
For guidance regarding the expected credit cost ratio in 2024 and the years to come, please refer to the section entitled 'Our uidan e'.
Impairment charges on assets other than loans amounted to 13 million euros, as opposed to 0 million euros in the previous quarter and 31 million euros in the year-earlier quarter. The quarter under review mainly included charges related to the extension of the interest cap regulation in Hungary and impairment charges on software.
Belgium 519 million euros; Czech Rep. 244 million euros; International Markets 224 million euros, Group Centre -61 million euros
Belgium: at first sight, the net result (519 million euros) was more than double the result of the previous quarter. However, the first quarter of the year traditionally includes the bulk of the bank and insurance taxes for the full year, hence distorting the quarter-on-quarter comparison. Excluding bank and insurance taxes, the net result was down 7% quarter-on-quarter, due primarily to the combined effect of:
Czech Republic: at first sight, the net result (244 million euros) was up 24% quarter-on-quarter. Excluding bank and insurance taxes, the net result was up 9% quarter-on-quarter. This was essentially attributable to a combination of:
International Markets: the 224-million-euro net result breaks down as follows: 27 million euros in Slovakia, 121 million euros in Hungary and 76 million euros in Bulgaria. For the business unit as a whole, the net result was, at first sight, up 3% on the previous quarter's result. When ex ludin an and insuran e taxes, the result was down %, due mainly to a combination of:
Group Centre: the net result (-61 million euros) was 18 million euros higher than the figure recorded in the previous quarter owing mainly to a combination of:
A full results ta le is provided in the 'Additional infor ation' se tion of the quarterly report. A short analysis of the results per business unit is provided in the analyst presentation (available at www.kbc.com).
| Belgium | Czech Republic | International Markets | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Selected ratios by business unit | 1H2024 | FY2023 | 1H2024 | FY2023 | 1H2024 | FY2023 |
| Cost/income ratio, group - excl. non-operational items and spreading bank and insurance taxes |
||||||
| evenly throughout the year | 43% | 46% | 44% | 47% | 44% | 45% |
| - excl. all bank and insurance taxes |
40% | 41% | 42% | 44% | 36% | 39% |
| Combined ratio, non-life insurance | 86% | 85% | 80% | 84% | 100%2 | 97%2 |
| Credit cost ratio1 | 0.24% | 0.06% | -0.19% | -0.18% | -0.18% | -0.06% |
| Impaired loans ratio | 2.1% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.8% |
1 A ne ative fi ure indi ates a net i pair ent release (positively affe tin results). See 'Details of ratios and ter s' in the quarterly report.
2 Excluding windfall bank and insurance taxes in Hungary, the combined ratio amounted to 93% in the first six months of 2024 and 94% for full-year 2023.
At the end of June , total equity a e to . illion euros and o prised . illion euros in parent shareholders' equity and 1.75 billion euros in additional tier-1 instruments. Total equity was down 1.3 billion euros on its level at the end of 2023. This was accounted for by the combined effect of the inclusion of the profit for the first six months of 2024 (+1.4 billion euros), the repurchase of own shares (-0.7 billion euros in the first half of 2024), the final dividend for 2023 and an extraordinary interim dividend paid both in May 2024 (-1.5 billion euros combined, see next paragraph), more or less stable revaluation reserves, the repayment of additional tier-1 instruments (-0.5 billion euros) and a number of s aller ite s. We have provided details of these han es under ' onsolidated state ent of han es in equity' in the ' onsolidated finan ial state ents' se tion of the quarterly report.
The Annual General Meeting of Shareholders of 2 May 2024 approved a total gross dividend of 4.15 euros per share for financial year 2023, with an interim dividend of 1.0 euro per share already paid in November 2023 and the remaining 3.15 euros per share paid on 15 May 2024. In line with our announced capital deployment plan for full-year 2023, the Board of Directors also decided to distribute the surplus capital above the fully loaded common equity ratio of 15% as an extraordinary interim dividend of 0.70 euros per share on 29 May 2024. In line with our general dividend policy, we will also pay an interim dividend of 1 euro per share in November 2024 as an advance on the total dividend for financial year 2024.
Our solvency position remained strong, as illustrated by a fully loaded common equity ratio (CET1) of 15.1% at 30 June 2024, compared to 15.2% at the end of 2023. The solvency ratio for KBC Insurance under the Solvency II framework was 200% at the end of June 2024, compared to 206% at the end of 2023. We have provided more details and additional infor ation on solven y under 'Solven y' in the 'Additional infor ation' se tion of the quarterly report.
Our liquidity position remained excellent too, as reflected in an LCR ratio of 160% and an NSFR ratio of 139%, compared to 159% and 136%, respectively, at the end of 2023.
down 23% year-on-year (down just 3% excluding the positive one-off gain on the Irish portfolio sale in the reference period)
Highlights (compared to the first six months of 2023, unless otherwise stated):
Sustaina ility re ains a pivotal fa tor in K 's overar hin orporate strate y. We uild upon past efforts, ai in to achieve the targets we have set for ourselves by actively engaging in dialogue with our customers. By understanding their unique needs and challenges, we tailor solutions to support their sustainability transition. Our commitment extends beyond financial services and includes providing expert advice to empower customers in making informed decisions. Together, we drive positive change and contribute to a more sustainable future.
Our sustained efforts as regards sustainability have once again been recognised as best-in-class by external ESG rating agencies. Our latest FTSE Russell ESG score increased from 4.7 to the highest possible score of 5, solidifying our position in the FTSE4Good index.
As we are mainly active in banking, insurance and asset management, we are exposed to a number of typical risks for these financial sectors such as – but not limited to – credit default risk, counterparty credit risk, concentration risk, movements in interest rates, currency risk, market risk, liquidity and funding risk, insurance underwriting risk, changes in regulations, operational risk, customer litigation, competition from other and new players, as well as the economy in general. KBC closely monitors and manages each of these risks within a strict risk framework, but they may all have a negative impact on asset values or could generate additional charges beyond anticipated levels.
At present, a number of factors are considered to constitute the main challenges for the financial sector. These stem primarily from the mostly indirect, but lingering, impact of the war in Ukraine, including the delayed effects of the increase in energy and commodity prices and the supply-side shortages it triggered. This led to a surge in inflation, resulting in upward pressure on interest rates, lower growth prospects (or even fears of a recession) and some concerns about the creditworthiness of counterparties in the economic sectors most exposed. Geopolitical risks remain elevated, as evidenced by the escalating conflict in Gaza/Israel and the Middle East. A significant number of elections in 2024 across the world, including in the US, are adding to the geopolitical uncertainty. All these risks affect global, ut espe ially, European e ono ies, in ludin K 's ho e ar ets. Re ulatory and o plian e ris s (in ludin in relation to capital requirements, anti-money laundering regulations, GDPR and ESG/sustainability) also remain a dominant theme for the sector, as does enhanced consumer protection. Digitalisation (with technology, including AI, as a catalyst) presents both opportunities and threats to the business model of traditional financial institutions, while climate and environmental-related risks are becoming increasingly prevalent. Cyber risk has become one of the main threats during the past few years, not just for the financial sector, but for the economy as a whole. The war in Ukraine has triggered an increase in attacks worldwide. Finally, we have seen governments across Europe taking additional measures to support their budgets (via increased tax contributions from the financial sector) and their citizens and corporate sector (by, for instance, implementing interest rate caps on loans or by pushing for higher rates on savings accounts).
We provide risk management data in our annual reports, quarterly reports and dedicated risk reports, all of which are available at www.kbc.com.
After posting 0.4% in the first quarter of 2024 (non-annualised), US growth accelerated in the second quarter to 0.7%, driven primarily by inventory build-up and private consumption. Quarter-on-quarter growth is expected to moderate again to about 0.3% in the third quarter of 2024, since the strong inventory build-up of the second quarter is unlikely to be repeated.
Euro-area growth in the second quarter was in line with the first quarter (0.3%). The manufacturing sector exhibited persistent weakness, while the service sector displayed signs of recovery, which likely supported second-quarter growth. From the second half of 2024 onwards, growth is expected to continue around the current growth rate, driven mainly by domestic consumption that will benefit from a recovery in real wages.
Quarter-on-quarter growth in the second quarter in Belgium amounted to 0.2%, slightly lower than in the first quarter. Relatively strong domestic demand probably still outweighed the negative contribution to growth of net exports. For the remainder of 2024, we expect growth to remain broadly in line with that of the euro area.
Meanwhile, the Czech economy accelerated its recovery in the second quarter of 2024 to 0.3%, despite weak foreign demand, compared to 0.2% in the first quarter. Second-quarter growth was supported mainly by private consumption due to real wage growth. Weak external demand weighed much more on second quarter growth in Hungary, which surprised strongly to the downside (-0.2%). Based on our latest estimates, second quarter growth in our other Central European home markets points to an ongoing recovery (Bulgaria and Slovakia both 0.7%).
The main risks to our short-term outlook for European growth include the global weakness of the manufacturing sector and adverse spillovers to Europe from a potentially weaker-than-expected US labour market. Moreover, current geopolitical tensions pose risks in the form of escalating protectionism, supply chain disruptions and higher energy and commodity prices. In addition, the global economic implications of the outcome of the US presidential election in November 2024, as well as the government budget discussions in the EU for 2025 against the background of the reactivated rules of the EU Stability and Growth Pact, might impact growth and the short-term country risk premiums of European economies.
Disinflation in the euro area paused in the second quarter, but is most likely still on track. Meanwhile, the latest US inflation data pointed to a resumption of the disinflation process after a number of earlier inflation upticks. Consequently, the ECB started its rate-cutting cycle in June 2024 by lowering its deposit rate by 25 basis points and is expected to cut it by another 25 basis points in September. The Fed is also expected to start its ratecutting cycle in September. In the background, the run-down of the Fed's and E 's alan e sheet ( uantitative Tightening) continues. Moreover, the ECB will end reinvesting maturing assets in its PEPP portfolio from 2025 on, after a transition period in the second half of 2024.
Benchmark US and German bond yields in the second quarter have been fluctuating. This volatility was caused by evolving market expectations of Fed and ECB rate policies and changing risk sentiment towards global and specific European (political) risk factors. In early August, market fears about US growth in particular caused US and, to a lesser extent, German yields to fall markedly.
The US dollar was volatile during the second quarter. The two main driving forces were market expectations for the monetary policy pursued by the Fed and the ECB, as well as risk sentiment prompting a flight to safe (USD) assets that led to a stronger dollar at the time of the European and subsequent French parliamentary elections. When it became clear that the extreme risk scenarios in both elections had been avoided, risk sentiment normalised again somewhat, resulting in a weaker US dollar. We expect the US dollar to appreciate mainly as a result of deteriorating risk sentiment in the run-up to the US elections in November. However, based on long-term fundamentals, the US dollar is likely to gradually weaken again from the fourth quarter of 2024 on.
In early May, the Czech National Bank (CNB) continued its rate-cutting cycle by a further 50 basis points, followed by another 50-basis-point cut at the end of June and a smaller cut by 25 basis points in early August. More rate cuts are expected. Since the beginning of the second quarter, the Czech koruna has basically remained broadly stable. However, there were two distinct periods. Until mid-June, the koruna appreciated markedly, mainly on the back of the more cautious easing approach of the CNB and the weakness of the US dollar at that time. From mid-June on, when risk sentiment deteriorated suddenly and the US dollar appreciated, the koruna started depreciating again. However, against the background of still substantial interest rate differentials, and as part of a more structural convergence process for the Czech economy, the koruna is expected to appreciate moderately again in the coming quarters.
In the second quarter of 2024, the National Bank of Hungary (NBH) cut its policy rate three more times, twice by 50 basis points and once by 25 basis points. In July, another cut of 25 basis points was effected. More gradual rate cuts are expected. The exchange rate of the Hungarian forint against the euro has been volatile since the start of the second quarter. Major driving factors have been (global) risk sentiment and the pace of rate cuts by the NBH. Driven by the structural inflation differential with the euro area, the forint is expected to depreciate in the course of 2024 and beyond.
| Agenda | 3Q2024 results: 7 Nov. 2024 Interim dividend of 1 euro: ex-coupon: 12 Nov. 2024, record: 13 Nov. 2024, payment: 14 Nov. 2024. |
|---|---|
| 4Q2024 results: 13 Feb.2025 Other events: www.kbc.com / Investor Relations / Financial calendar |
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| More information on 2Q2024 |
Quarterly report: www.kbc.com / Investor Relations / Reports Company presentation: www.kbc.com / Investor Relations / Presentations |
Investor Relations, KBC-group E-mail: [email protected]
Viviane Huybrecht, General Manager, Corporate Communication/Spokesperson, KBC Group Tel +32 2 429 85 45 - E-Mail: [email protected]
* This news item contains information that is subject to the transparency regulations for listed companies.
| KBC Group NV | Press Office | KBC press releases are available at |
|---|---|---|
| Havenlaan 2 – 1080 Brussels | Tel. + 32 2 429 29 15 Ilse De Muyer | www.kbc.com or can be obtained by |
| Viviane Huybrecht | Tel. + 32 2 429 32 88 Pieter Kussé | sending an e-mail to [email protected] |
| General Manager | Tel. + 32 2 429 85 44 Sofie Spiessens | |
| Corporate Communication /Spokesperson | Tel. + 32 2 429 29 49 Tomas Meyers | Follow us on www.twitter.com/kbc_group |
| Tel. + 32 2 429 85 45 | [email protected] | Stay up-to-date on all innovative solutions |
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