Investor Presentation • Mar 19, 2019
Investor Presentation
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Koen Van Gerven, CEO Baudouin de Hepcée, CFO a.i.
Brussels – March 20, 2019
Financial Calendar
More on corporate.bpost.be/investors
02.05.2019 (17:45 CET) Quarterly results 1Q19
08.05.2019 Ordinary General Meeting of Shareholders
13.05.2019 Ex-dividend date
15.05.2019 Payment date of the dividend 07.08.2019 (17:45 CET) Quarterly results 2Q19
06.11.2019 (17:45 CET) Quarterly results 3Q19
02.12.2019 (17:45 CET) Interim dividend 2019 announcement
05.12.2019 Ex-dividend date
09.12.2019 Dividend payment date
This presentation is based on information published by bpost in its Fourth Quarter 2018 Press Release and 2018 Annual Report, made available on March, 19th 2019 at 5.45pm CET on corporate.bpost.be/investors. This information forms regulated information as defined in the Royal Decree of 14 November 2007. The information in this document may include forwardlooking statements1, which are based on current expectations and projections of management about future events. By their nature, forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties, assumptions and other factors because they relate to events and depend on circumstances that will occur in the future whether or not outside the control of the Company. Such factors may cause actual results, performance or developments to differ materially from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Accordingly, no assurance is given that such forward-looking statements will prove to have been correct. They speak only as at the date of the Presentation and the Company undertakes no obligation to update these forward-looking statements contained herein to reflect actual results, changes in assumptions or changes in factors affecting these statements. This material is not intended as and does not constitute an offer to sell any securities or a solicitation of any offer to purchase any securities.
€ million
| Topic | Results | Last outlook for 2018 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Group EBITDA | FY18: | € 571.1m (-4.5%, - € 26.9m) |
Low end of the € 560-600m range |
|
| Radial EBITDA | FY18: | € 25.7m (+ € 8.8m) | Stable EBITDA contribution vs. 2017 (i.e. € 16.9m) |
|
| Domestic Mail | FY18: | -5.8% (underlying volume) | Up to -7% | |
| Parcels | FY18: | +23.3% (domestic volumes) | Double digit | |
| Dividend | • • |
Total gross dividend of € 1.31 per share proposed Interim dividend already paid: € 1.06 Final dividend of € 0.25 |
At least the same level as 2017 (i.e. € 1.31) |
• Driven by acquisitions, strong organic domestic and international parcels growth and nearly stable domestic mail revenues
• Impacted by continued e-substitution, rationalization and competitive advertising market
• Total opex increase of € +121.4m driven by opex from acquisitions (€ +133.7m incl. Radial).
Proposed total dividend per share equal to last year as guided € 1.06 already paid in December 2018 and € 0.25 to be proposed at the Annual General Meeting in May 2019
- € 1.4m
€ 1.31 gross
€ million
€ +25.9m / +18.0%
€ million
| Reported | Normalized | 1 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4Q17 | 4Q18 | 4Q17 | 4Q18 | % Δ | € 13.1m linked to | |
| Total operating income | 955.1 | 1,131.6 | 955.1 | 1,131.6 | 18.5% | amortization on intangible assets |
| Operating expenses | 803.7 | 925.2 | 803.7 | 925.2 | 15.1% | (purchase price |
| EBITDA | 151.4 | 206.4 | 151.4 | 206.4 | 36.3% | allocation "PPA" |
| Margin (%) | 15.9% | 18.2% | 15.9% | 18.2% | Radial, Ubiway, Dynagroup, de |
|
| EBIT | 115.5 | 143.8 | 124.2 | 156.9 | 26.3% | Buren & Imex) |
| Margin (%) | 12.1% | 12.7% | 13.0% | 13.9% | ||
| Profit before tax | 106.9 | 140.5 | 115.7 | 153.6 | 32.8% | Tax impact of PPA on amortization of |
| Income tax expense | 39.8 | 35.9 | 42.2 | 38.2 | € 2.3m | |
| Net profit | 67.1 | 104.6 | 73.5 | 115.4 | 57.1% | |
| FCF | (576.6) | 221.8 | (591.6) | 186.0 | Normalized FCF excludes the cash |
|
| bpost S.A./N.V. net profit (BGAAP) | 68.2 | 78.1 | 68.2 | 78.1 | 14.5% | Radial receives on |
| Net Debt/ (Net cash), at 31 December | 292.4 | 344.8 | 292.4 | 344.8 | behalf of its | |
| customers for performing billing |
€ million
| 4Q17 | ∆ | 4Q18 | % ∆ | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Transactional mail | 214.8 | 2.7 | 217.5 | 1.3% | |
| Domestic mail | Advertising mail | 67.3 | -1.7 | 65.6 | -2.5% |
| Press | 77.7 | -2.7 | 75.0 | -3.5% | |
| Domestic parcels1 | 64.8 | 7.9 | 72.6 | 12.1% | |
| Parcels | International parcels | 63.0 | 8.5 | 71.4 | 13.5% |
| Logistic solutions2 | 240.2 | 117.0 | 357.2 | 48.7% | |
| International mail3 | 43.0 | 22.7 | 65.7 | 52.7% | |
| Additional | Value added services | 25.4 | 3.2 | 28.7 | 12.7% |
| sources | Banking and financial | 43.5 | -2.2 | 41.3 | -5.0% |
| of revenues | Distribution | 25.8 | 4.4 | 30.3 | 17.1% |
| Retail & Other4 | 76.9 | 5.4 | 82.3 | 7.0% | |
| Corporate4 | 12.8 | 11.3 | 24.2 | 88.2% | |
| TOTAL | 955.1 | 176.5 | 1,131.6 | 18.5% |
1 Defined as domestic and Belgian in- and outbound
Total operating income, € million
| Reported | Underlying (excl. elections) 1 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Q18 | 2Q18 | 3Q18 | 4Q18 | FY18 | 1Q18 | 2Q18 | 3Q18 | 4Q18 | FY18 | |
| Transactional mail | -7.0% | -3.5% | -5.3% | -5.3% | -5.3% | -6.7% | -3.2% | -6.1% | -6.6% | -5.7% |
| Advertising mail | -7.6% | -7.8% | -3.4% | -3.5% | -5.7% | -7.6% | -7.8% | -6.9% | -6.3% | -7.2% |
| Press | -3.3% | -2.5% | -7.1% | -2.9% | -3.8% | -3.3% | -2.5% | -7.1% | -2.9% | -3.8% |
| Domestic Mail | -6.8% | -4.3% | -5.1% | -4.6% | -5.2% | -6.6% | -4.1% | -6.4% | -6.2% | -5.8% |
1 Mail volumes related to elections and working day differences are neutralized in the underlying volume trend: 4Q18 had 2 working days more on franking machines vs. the same quarter of 2017.
Total operating income, € million
1 Defined as domestic and Belgian in- and outbound
2 Active Ants is included in FY18 for 10 months as of 1 April 2018, with 4 months in 4Q18
| Reported | |
|---|---|
| € million | 4Q18 |
| Total operating income | 313.5 |
| Operating expenses | 295.6 |
| Transport | 102.4 |
| Payroll and interim | 119.4 |
| Other SG&A | 59.4 |
| Other costs | 14.5 |
| EBITDA | 17.9 |
| Margin (%) | 5.7% |
11
Total operating income, € million
Operating expenses excl. depreciation and amortization, € million
| Reported - € million | 4Q17 | 4Q18 | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash flow from operating activities | +46.7 | +223.9 | +177.2 |
| Cash flow from investing activities | -623.2 | -2.1 | +621.1 |
| Operating free cash flow | -576.6 | +221.8 | +798.4 |
| Financing activities | +466.6 | -79.1 | -545.7 |
| Net cash movement | -110.0 | +142.7 | +252.6 |
| Capex | -54.4 | -48.5 | +5.9 |
| CF from operating activities: | |||
| CF from operating activities before changes in working capital: € 129.4m Collected cash due to Radial's clients: € 35.8m Decrease in working capital: € 58.7m |
• Issuance of commercial paper (€ 145.0m) more than offset by interim dividend pay-out (€ 212.0m)
14
1 Operating free cash flow = cash flow from operating activities + cash flow from investing activities
• Based on the communicated dividend policy, taking into account the interim dividend paid and subject to Board and Shareholders' meeting approval, the Board of Directors proposed a gross final dividend of € 0.25/share (same as FY17).
| Total proposed dividend for 2018 (€, gross per share) | € 1.31 |
|---|---|
| Proposed final dividend to be paid in May 2019 (€, gross per share) | € 0.25 |
| Interim dividend paid in December 2018 (€, gross per share) | € 1.06 |
| Payout ratio | 99.9% |
| Total proposed dividend for 2018 | € 262.0m |
| bpost S.A./N.V. FY18 net profits after tax | € 262.3m |
in € million
| IFRS 16 impact on 2019 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating expenses | ~-104 | Decrease as rent & rental expenses to be recognized as depreciation and interest costs |
|||
| EBITDA | ~+104 | Increase due to lower rent & rental costs | |||
| D&A | ~+100 | Increase due to new depreciation of right-of-use assets |
|||
| EBIT | ~+4 | Marginal increase due to opex and depreciation impacts |
|||
| Net financial costs | ~+8 | Increase due to interest expense from unwinding of the discount of the lease liability |
|||
| CF from operating activities | ~+104 | Leasing-related cash outflows transferred to CF from financing activities |
|||
| CF from financing activities | ~-104 | Leasing-related cash outflows transferred from CF from operating activities |
|||
| Assets & Liabilities | ~418 |
in € million
| M&R | Parcels & Logistics Europe & Asia |
Parcels & Logistics North America |
Corporate | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating expenses | ~-45 | ~-10 | ~-21 | ~-27 | ~-104 |
| EBITDA | ~+45 | ~+10 | ~+21 | ~+27 | ~+104 |
| D&A | ~+43 | ~+10 | ~+20 | ~+27 | ~+100 |
| EBIT | ~+2 | ~0 | ~+1 | ~0 | ~+4 |
in € million
| 1 2018 restated |
PaLo | PaLo | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M&R | Eurasia | N. Am. | Corp | Eliminations | Group | |
| External operating income | 1,951.7 | 757.0 | 1,104.8 | 36.8 | 3,850.2 | |
| Internal operating income | 159.6 | 35.3 | 9.6 | 358.2 | (562.7) | - |
| Total operating income | 2,111.3 | 792.3 | 1,114.4 | 395.0 | (562.7) | 3,850.2 |
| Operating expenses | 1,727.6 | 735.5 | 1,068.5 | 309.8 | (562.3) | 3,279.1 |
| EBITDA | 383.6 | 56.8 | 45.9 | 85.2 | (0.4) | 571.1 |
| Margin (%) | 18.2% | 7.2% | 4.1% | 21.6% | 14.8% | |
| Depreciation & Amortization | 50.5 | 18.1 | 35.0 | 43.3 | 146.8 | |
| EBIT | 333.2 | 38.7 | 10.9 | 41.9 | (0.4) | 424.3 |
| Margin (%) | 15.8% | 4.9% | 1.0% | 10.6% | 11.0% | |
| Average # FTEs and interims | 22,214 | 3,087 | 9,093 | 1,715 | 36,109 |
Note: an Excel download of restated financials is available under the Q4 caption on the website: https://corporate.bpost.be/investors/results-reports-and-presentations/quarterly-results/2018
1 Details per segment per quarter in appendix
| Mail & Retail | • Low single digit % decline in Mail & Retail total operating income • Underlying Domestic Mail volume decline up to -7% • Average price increase of +4.4% in Domestic Mail • % EBIT margin between 11-13% |
|---|---|
| Parcels & Logistics Europe & Asia |
• High single digit % growth in Parcels & Logistics Europe & Asia total operating income of which mid-teens for Parcels Belgium-Netherlands (BeNe) • % EBIT margin between 6%-8% |
| Parcels & Logistics North America |
• Low single digit % decline in Parcels & Logistics North America total operating income mainly explained by the FY impact of the 2018 client churn and repricing at Radial. On track for 2022 guidance as presented at the CMD. • Break-even at EBIT level |
| Group | Stable total operating income incl. proceeds from building sales • EBIT above € 300m1 • Gross capex around € 150m • |
| Dividend | • At least 85% of 2019 BGAAP net profit of bpost SA/NV |
Brussels – March 20, 2019
FY18
€ million
€ -29.4m / -5.3%
performing billing
€ million
| Reported | Normalized1 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY17 | FY18 | FY17 | FY18 | % Δ | € 30.9m linked to | |
| Total operating income | 3,023.8 | 3,850.2 | 3,023.8 | 3,850.2 | 27.3% | amortization on |
| Operating expenses | 2,425.9 | 3,279.1 | 2,425.9 | 3,279.1 | 35.2% | intangible assets (purchase price |
| EBITDA | 598.0 | 571.1 | 598.0 | 571.1 | -4.5% | allocation "PPA" |
| Margin (%) | 19.8% | 14.8% | 19.8% | 14.8% | Radial, Ubiway, Dynagroup, de |
|
| EBIT | 492.9 | 393.4 | 501.6 | 424.3 | -15.4% | Buren & Imex) |
| Margin (%) | 16.3% | 10.2% | 16.6% | 11.0% | ||
| Profit before tax | 488.7 | 381.0 | 497.5 | 411.9 | -17.2% | Tax impact of PPA |
| Income tax expense | 165.8 | 117.4 | 168.2 | 121.4 | on amortization of € 4.1m |
|
| Net profit | 322.9 | 263.6 | 329.3 | 290.4 | -11.8% | |
| FCF | (485.8) | 241.2 | (500.8) | 231.5 | Normalized FCF | |
| bpost S.A./N.V. net profit (BGAAP) | 291.0 | 262.3 | 291.0 | 262.3 | -9.8% | excludes the cash Radial receives on |
| Net Debt/ (Net cash), at 31 December | 292.4 | 344.8 | 292.4 | 344.8 | behalf of its customers for |
€ million
| FY17 | ∆ | FY18 | % ∆ | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Transactional mail | 807.9 | 1.4 | 809.3 | 0.2% | |
| Domestic mail | Advertising mail | 252.9 | -8.6 | 244.2 | -3.4% |
| Press | 292.6 | -6.6 | 286.0 | -2.2% | |
| Domestic parcels1 | 224.2 | 38.1 | 262.3 | 17.0% | |
| Parcels | International parcels | 222.6 | 20.3 | 242.9 | 9.1% |
| Logistic solutions2 | 349.2 | 707.0 | 1,056.2 | - | |
| International mail3 | 160.4 | 80.4 | 240.9 | 50.1% | |
| Additional | Value added services | 101.5 | 9.1 | 110.7 | 9.0% |
| sources of revenues |
Banking and financial | 182.6 | -15.5 | 167.1 | -8.5% |
| Distribution | 98.1 | 2.9 | 101.0 | 3.0% | |
| Retail & Other4 | 288.9 | 2.6 | 291.4 | 0.9% | |
| Corporate4 | 42.9 | -4.6 | 38.3 | -10.7% | |
| TOTAL | 3,023.8 | 826.4 | 3,850.2 | 27.3% |
1 Defined as domestic and Belgian in- and outbound
4 Including one-off operating income (earn-out reversals in Retail & Other and provision reversal + gain on sale OBX in Corporate)
FY18
Total operating income (revenues), € million
| Reported | Underlying 1 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY17 | 4Q18 | FY18 | FY17 | 4Q18 | FY18 | ||
| Transactional mail | -8.3% | -5.3% | -5.3% | -8.1% | -6.6% | -5.7% | |
| Advertising mail | 1.5% | -3.5% | -5.7% | 1.5% | -6.3% | -7.2% | |
| Press | -3.7% | -2.9% | -3.8% | -3.7% | -2.9% | -3.8% | |
| Domestic Mail | -5.9% | -4.6% | -5.2% | -5.8% | -6.2% | -5.8% |
• Price increase on non-regulated items as of 1 January (12 months) and SUB as of 1 March (10 months) partly offset by shift towards cheaper products.
1 1Q18 had 1 working day less on franking machines, 2Q18 1 working day less on stamps, 3Q18 1 working day more on franking machines and 2 more on stamps and 4Q18 2 working days more on franking machines vs. the same quarters of 2017.
Total operating income (revenues), € million
1 Defined as domestic and Belgian in- and outbound
2 Active Ants is included in FY18 for 10 months as of 1 April 2018, with 4 months in 4Q18
Total operating income (revenues), € million
FY18
Operating expenses excl. depreciation and amortization, € million
1 Opex of Radial, Bubble Post, Leen Menken, Imex, M.A.I.L., Inc., Active Ants (see appendix for more detail)
| Reported - € million | FY17 | FY18 | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash flow from operating activities | +266.1 | +362.0 | +95.8 |
| Cash flow from investing activities | -751.9 | -120.8 | +631.1 |
| Operating free cash flow | -485.8 | +241.2 | +727.0 |
| Financing activities | +416.8 | -29.5 | -446.4 |
| Net cash movement | -68.9 | +211.7 | +280.6 |
| Capex | -121.3 | -114.9 | +6.4 |
• Bond issuance (€ 650.0m) and net increase commercial papers & loans more than offset by the reimbursement of the bridge loan (€ -691.6m), dividend pay-out (€ 262.0m) and costs related to borrowing
1 Operating free cash flow = cash flow from operating activities + cash flow from investing activities
in € million
| expected | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Q18 | 2Q18 | 3Q18 | 4Q18 | FY18 | IFRS16 | |
| External operating income | 497.2 | 492.0 | 456.5 | 506.0 | 1,951.7 | |
| Transactional | 199.6 | 199.0 | 172.7 | 201.1 | 772.4 | |
| Advertising | 63.4 | 60.1 | 55.1 | 65.6 | 244.2 | |
| Press | 88.7 | 87.0 | 82.9 | 91.4 | 350.0 | |
| Proximity and convenience retail network | 120.0 | 119.4 | 120.1 | 120.4 | 479.9 | |
| Value added services | 25.5 | 26.6 | 25.7 | 27.4 | 105.2 | |
| Internal operating income | 39.7 | 39.0 | 37.4 | 43.5 | 159.6 | |
| Total operating income | 536.9 | 531.0 | 493.8 | 549.5 | 2,111.3 | |
| Operating expenses | 422.6 | 425.2 | 431.7 | 448.2 | 1,727.6 | -45.5 |
| EBITDA | 114.4 | 105.8 | 62.2 | 101.3 | 383.6 | +45.5 |
| Margin (%) | 21.3% | 19.9% | 12.6% | 18.4% | 18.2% | |
| Depreciation & Amortization | 8.5 | 12.2 | 10.0 | 19.8 | 50.5 | +43.4 |
| EBIT | 105.8 | 93.6 | 52.2 | 81.5 | 333.2 | +2.1 |
| Margin (%) | 19.7% | 17.6% | 10.6% | 14.8% | 15.8% |
in € million
| expected | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Q18 | 2Q18 | 3Q18 | 4Q18 | FY18 | IFRS16 |
| 177.5 | 184.7 | 176.1 | 218.7 | 757.0 | |
| 76.0 | 79.5 | 78.1 | 105.1 | 338.7 | |
| 32.7 | 34.3 | 31.8 | 29.2 | 128.0 | |
| 68.8 | 70.9 | 66.3 | 84.3 | 290.4 | |
| 4.8 | 6.1 | 10.7 | 13.7 | 35.3 | |
| 182.3 | 190.8 | 186.8 | 232.3 | 792.3 | |
| 168.9 | 180.8 | 180.8 | 204.9 | 735.5 | -9.9 |
| 13.4 | 9.9 | 6.0 | 27.4 | 56.8 | +9.9 |
| 7.4% | 5.2% | 3.2% | 11.8% | 7.2% | |
| 2.0 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 11.4 | 18.1 | +9.7 |
| 11.5 | 7.6 | 3.7 | 16.0 | 38.7 | +0.2 |
| 6.3% | 4.0% | 2.0% | 6.9% | 4.9% | |
| expected | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Q18 | 2Q18 | 3Q18 | 4Q18 | FY18 | IFRS16 | |
| External operating income | 240.0 | 249.1 | 238.5 | 377.1 | 1,104.8 | |
| E-commerce logistics | 220.6 | 226.2 | 217.1 | 354.1 | 1,017.9 | |
| International mail | 19.4 | 23.0 | 21.4 | 23.1 | 86.8 | |
| Internal operating income | 1.2 | 1.7 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 9.6 | |
| Total operating income | 241.2 | 250.8 | 241.7 | 380.8 | 1,114.4 | |
| Operating expenses | 231.8 | 241.4 | 239.1 | 356.1 | 1,068.5 | -20.9 |
| EBITDA | 9.4 | 9.4 | 2.5 | 24.6 | 45.9 | +20.9 |
| Margin (%) | 3.9% | 3.7% | 1.1% | 6.5% | 4.1% | |
| Depreciation & Amortization | 9.1 | 8.2 | 8.3 | 9.3 | 35.0 | +19.5 |
| EBIT | 0.3 | 1.1 | (5.8) | 15.3 | 10.9 | +1.4 |
| Margin (%) | 0.1% | 0.5% | -2.4% | 4.0% | 1.0% |
in € million
| expected | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Q18 | 2Q18 | 3Q18 | 4Q18 | FY18 | IFRS16 | |
| External operating income | 1.8 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 29.8 | 36.8 | |
| Internal operating income | 92.7 | 93.2 | 86.0 | 86.3 | 358.2 | |
| Total operating income | 94.6 | 95.7 | 88.6 | 116.1 | 395.0 | |
| Operating expenses | 88.5 | 78.1 | 80.6 | 62.6 | 309.8 | -27.4 |
| EBITDA | 6.0 | 17.6 | 8.1 | 53.5 | 85.2 | +27.4 |
| Depreciation & Amortization | 11.2 | 11.5 | 11.7 | 8.9 | 43.3 | +27.5 |
| EBIT | (5.2) | 6.1 | (3.6) | 44.6 | 41.9 | -0.1 |
35
€ million
1 Restated in order to show comparative information following the purchase price allocation of Radial
€ million
| Saskia Dheedene Head of Investor Relations |
• Email: [email protected] Direct: +32 (0) 2 276 76 43 • • Mobile: +32 (0) 477 92 23 43 Address: bpost, Centre Monnaie, 1000 Brussels, Belgium • |
|---|---|
| Stéphanie Voisin Manager Investor Relations |
Email: • [email protected] • Direct: +32 (0) 2 276 21 97 • Mobile: +32 (0) 478 48 58 71 Address: bpost, Centre Monnaie, 1000 Brussels, Belgium • |
37
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