November 4, 2015
Disclaimer
This Presentation includes and is based, inter alia, on forward-looking information and statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ. These statements and this Presentation are based on current expectations, estimates and projections about global economic conditions, the economic conditions of the regions and industries that are major markets for REC Silicon ASA (including subsidiaries and affiliates) lines of business. These expectations, estimates and projections are generally identifiable by statements containing words such as "expects", "believes", "estimates" or similar expressions. Important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expectations include, among others, economic and market conditions in the geographic areas and industries that are or will be major markets for REC Silicon ASA's businesses, energy prices, market acceptance of new products and services, changes in governmental regulations, interest rates, fluctuations in currency exchange rates and such other factors as may be discussed from time to time in the presentation. Although REC Silicon ASA believes that its expectations and the presentation are based upon reasonable assumptions, it can give no assurance that those expectations will be achieved or that the actual results will be as set out in the presentation. REC Silicon ASA makes no representations or warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of the presentation, and neither REC Silicon ASA nor any of its directors, officers or employees will have any liability to you or any other persons resulting from your use.
This presentation was prepared for the third quarter 2015 results presentation on November 4, 2015. Information contained herein will not be updated. The following slides should be read and considered in connection with the information given orally during the presentation.
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| REC Silicon Q3 Financial Results |
T. Torvund, CEO |
| U.S. / China Trade |
F. Sullivan, CLO |
| Market Outlook |
T. Torvund |
| Financial Overview |
J. May, CFO |
| Yulin JV Update |
T. Torvund |
| Near-term Strategy |
T. Torvund |
| Guidance |
T. Torvund |
| Q & A |
|
REC Silicon ASA Third Quarter 2015 Highlights
Revenues: \$87.5 M
EBITDA: (\$14.1 M) Loss
Polysilicon Production
- Total polysilicon production 3,580 MT
- FBR cash cost \$13.8/kg
Polysilicon Sales Volume 4,512 MT
- 1,026 MT inventory reduction
- 13% Solar Grade price decline
Silicon Gas Sales
- 642 MT Silicon gas sales
- 17% Silicon gas price increase
Optimism for Trade War Resolution
- Negotiations are ongoing
- Uncertainty remains
Full Capacity Available when Trade and Market Conditions Permit
- Anticipate restart of Silane III and full capacity utilization in Moses Lake from January 2016
- Leverage low cost advantage to penetrate solar markets
REC Silicon ASA Q3 2015 Key Metrics
|
Financials |
|
|
|
|
|
Revenue |
|
\$87.5 M |
|
|
|
|
EBITDA (Loss) |
\$14.1 M |
|
|
|
|
EBITDA Margin |
(16%) |
|
|
| FBR Production |
|
|
FBR |
Cash Cost |
|
| Actual |
2,863 MT |
|
Actual |
|
\$13.8/kg |
| Guidance* |
2,920 MT |
|
|
Guidance* |
\$15.2/kg |
| Deviation |
- 0.2% |
|
Deviation |
|
- 9% |
| Total Polysilicon Production |
|
|
|
|
|
| Actual |
3,580 MT |
|
|
|
|
| Guidance* |
3,600 MT |
|
|
|
|
| Deviation |
- 0.5% |
|
|
|
|
| Semiconductor Production |
|
|
|
|
|
| Actual |
282 MT |
|
|
|
|
| Guidance* |
330 MT |
|
|
|
|
| Deviation |
- 14.6% |
|
|
|
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| Silicon Gases Sales Vol. |
|
|
|
|
|
| Actual |
642 MT |
|
|
|
|
| Guidance* |
720 MT |
|
|
|
|
| Deviation |
-10.9% |
|
|
|
|
* Guidance presented July 16, 2015
5 © REC Silicon ASA. All rights reserved. Confidential November 4, 2015
Q3 Production and FBR Cost Impacted by Silane III Shutdown
Polysilicon Production
FBR Cost
Q3 2015 Polysilicon ASPs Continued Downward Trend
FBR Prime vs. Spot Indices
› REC Silicon average Solar Grade sales price decreased 13% from Q2 '15 › Discount to spot reflects customer leverage › Trade war › Surplus supply-chain inventory › Anticipate increased Q4 '15 end-use demand to push spot pricing slightly higher JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP 2014 2015 Index I Index II Index III FBR PRIME
- › Silicon Gas Sales Volumes 642 MT
- 35% volume decrease vs. Q2 '15
- 17% avg. price increase vs. Q2 '15
- › Overall Silicon gas demand on track
- Slow Q3 '15 a result of forward sales in Q2 '15
- Forward sales likely to impact Q4 '15 and Q1 '16 sales
U.S. China Trade War
U.S. / China Trade War: Resolution is in Motion
- › SolarWorld & Chinese Panel makers a confidential "commercial deal" to settle Solar Panel dispute in August, 2015
- › U.S. Government consent & involvement required to make withdrawal of U.S. Duties on Chinese solar panels and this deal a reality in the U.S.
- › U.S. Government Concrete Condition: China market access is required for all U.S. Polysilicon makers for this to happen
Big win for China with a Package Solar Resolution Deal
What the resolution package means:
- › Improved access to valuable U.S. panel market
- › Current U.S. Duties significant cost to Chinese panel makers
- › Eliminate risk of retrospective U.S. Duty hikes
- › Without a deal the U.S. Duties will continue to handicap Chinese panels in future
- › Polysilicon shortage looming in China with poly prices \$2-5 higher than the ROW
- › Needed growth in wafer capacity expected outside of China without trade war resolution
Timing?
›
› Consensus building in China and internal processes underway
Market Outlook
Demand Estimates Up from Original 2015 estimates
58 GW Installation Forecast
- › 45% increase from 2014 actuals
- › ~41 GW installed through Q3
- › ~17 GW in Q4
Q4 Drivers
- › China: Q4 expected to be strong - 6 GW
- › U.S.: possible ITC expiration accelerating timing of utility scale development - 4 GW
- › Japan: restart of nuclear capacity and FiT reductions drive near term demand - 3 GW
- › India: national tender process in place, increased demand expected into 2016 - 1.7 GW
2015 PV Installation Forecast
13 © REC Silicon ASA. All rights reserved. Confidential November 4, 2015
› Cost-competitiveness
› Falling solar costs compared to other resources
› High electricity prices
› Retail and wholesale rates in key markets are high enough to support PV globally
› Structural factors
- › High growth in high isolation areas
- › Large gross demand needs globally
› Cost of capital
› Increasing access to cheaper finance, capital markets and the use of portfoliobased funds
Forecasted PV Installations and Share by Region
Source: GTM Research, October 2015
Limited Additional Polysilicon Capacity Expected in Coming Years
Source: Financial reporting, industry analysts, REC Internal database
Polysilicon Supply
Semi Semi Semi Semi ROW ROW ROW ROW China Top 3 China Top 3 China Top 3 China Other China Top 3 Other China Other China Other China 58GW 67GW 78GW 95GW 0 100 200 300 400 500 2015 2016 2017 2018 Polysilicon (kMT) Total Poly Demand
Polysilicon near-term Supply Demand
- › GTM Research Installed PV demand estimates › growth 15% – 23% annually
- › Balanced supply and demand by year-end 2016
Source: PV Demand GTM Research October 2015 and Internal REC database. Note: PV poly demand based on 5 g/w through 2017 4.9g/W in 2018
Financial Review
Revenues - \$87.5 M
- › Increased Polysilicon Sales Volumes
- 18% Sales Volume Increase from Q2'15
- 13% Solar Grade Price Decrease from Q2'15 (Excluding Fines & Powders)
- › Silicon Gas Sales Volumes 642 MT
- 35% Sales Volume Decrease from Q2'15
- 17% Price Increase Compared to Q2'15
EBITDA – Loss of (\$14.1 M)
- Higher Polysilicon Volumes
- Lower Polysilicon Prices
- Higher Unit Costs due to Silane III Shutdown
* Excludes Special Items of USD 101 million Gain on Sale of Technology to the Yulin JV
Q3 2015 Cash Flows
Cash Flows From Operating Activities \$8 M
- › EBITDA Loss of (\$14.1 M)
- › Working Capital Decrease \$23.9 M
- Decreased Inventories \$14.7 M
- Decreased Accounts Receivable \$8.1 M
- Increased Accounts Payable \$1.1 M
- › Interest payments (\$2.1 M)
Cash Flows From Financing Activities \$53 M
- › Debt \$10 M
- Sale of NOK 155 M REC03
- Redemption of NOK 55 M REC02
- Transaction Costs of NOK 1.3 M
- › Equity \$43 M
- Issuance of 230 Million Shares at NOK 1.55 per Share
- Gross Proceeds of NOK 356.5 M
- Transaction Costs of NOK 7.8 M
Nominal Net Debt - \$114 M
- › Decreased by \$40.8 M from Q2'15
- › Increase in Cash of \$45.5 M
- › Increase in Nominal Debt of \$4.7
Nominal Debt - \$208 M
- › Increased by \$4.7 M from Q2'15
- › Increased by \$10.4 M due to:
- › Repurchase of NOK 55 M REC02
- › Sale of NOK 155 M REC03
- › Decreased by \$5.7 M due to Stronger US Dollar
USD million
- Indemnification Loan (NOK)
- 2016 NOK Bond (May 2016)
- 2018 NOK Bond (May 2018)
- 2018 USD Convertible Bond (Aug 2018)
Yulin JV – On Track
- › Equipment tendering in progress, >50% issued or awarded
- › Bids awarded for major items and fabrication has begun
- › Major site piling completed in November
- › Critical excavation and foundation work started
- › Mechanical construction to start after 2016 Chinese New Year holiday
- › Negotiations on-going to defer equity contribution
Yulin JV Administrative buildings October, 2015
Near-term Strategy
REC Remains Low Cost Polysilicon Producer
› Low spot prices due to excess inventory but expected to increase with drawdown › Cash cost for non U.S. producers has dropped due to currency changes
Source: REC internal database; spot price is average of industry indices
Approximately 20% of Silicon Wafers Produced Outside China
- › 2015 Wafer capacity estimated at 70 GW
- › China accounts for 78% of wafer production
- › Wafer capacity outside China ~ 75k MT polysilicon
Source: GTM Research.
Continuing to Reduce Reliance on China
Increased Sales to Rest of World
- › Polysilicon prices discounted to gain Rest of World Share
- › Discounted pricing expected to diminish as polysilicon demand increases
Decreased Inventory Levels in 2nd Half of 2015
- Inventory Increases through 1st Half Due to:
- › Trade War (limited access to China)
- › Excess polysilicon supply
- 2nd Half Inventory Reduction Due to:
- › Lower production (Silane III shutdown)
- › Increased sales (18% Q3 increase)
- › 1,026 MT decrease in Q3 2015
- › 1,700 MT decrease expected Q4
Target Inventory Levels: › ~60 Days supply (3,000 MT)
Sufficient Liquidity Expected Without Trade War Resolution
› Cost and Efficiency Improvements
- Headcount Reduction
- Defer Planned Maintenance Outages
- Limit Capital Expenditures
- Delay Expenditures Where Possible
- › Gradual Solar Grade price increases
- Supply/Demand balance tightening
- › Full FBR capacity from January 2016
- Restart dependent on:
- Trade War status
- Market Conditions
|
FBR Production |
|
FBR Cash Cost |
|
Silicon Gas Sales |
|
| Q4 |
2,220 MT |
|
Q4 |
\$17.1/kg |
Q4 |
700 MT |
| 2015 |
14,000 MT |
|
2015 |
\$12.4/kg |
2015 |
3,060 MT |
| Semiconductor Production |
|
|
Total Polysilicon Production |
CapEx |
|
|
| Q4 |
300 MT |
Q4 |
2,980 MT |
|
Maintenance |
\$14 M |
| 2015 |
1,210 MT |
2015 |
16,840 MT |
|
Expansion |
\$41 M |
2015 Total \$55 M
Q4 2015 Reporting February 12, 2016