Investor Presentation • May 31, 2016
Investor Presentation
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Oslo, May 31, 2016
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Predictable Driving results Changemakers Working together
The following presentation is being made only to, and is only directed at, persons to whom such presentation may lawfully be communicated ('relevant persons'). Any person who is not a relevant person should not rely, act or make assessment on the basis of this presentation or anything included therein.
The following presentation may include information related to investments made and key commercial terms thereof, including future returns. Such information cannot be relied upon as a guide to the future performance of such investments. The release, publication or distribution of this presentation in certain jurisdictions may be restricted by law, and therefore persons in such jurisdictions into which this presentation is released, published or distributed should inform themselves about, and observe, such restrictions. This presentation does not constitute an offering of securities or otherwise constitute an invitation or inducement to any person to underwrite, subscribe for or otherwise acquire securities in Scatec Solar ASA or any company within the Scatec Solar Group. This presentation contains statements regarding the future in connection with the Scatec Solar Group's growth initiatives, profit figures, outlook, strategies and objectives as well as forward looking statements and any such information or forward-looking statements regarding the future and/or the Scatec Solar Group's expectations are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties, and many factors can lead to actual profits and developments deviating substantially from what has been expressed or implied in such statements.
| TIME | TOPIC | SPEAKER |
|---|---|---|
| 08.30 – 09.30 |
1. Introduction 2. Markets and opportunities |
Raymond Carlsen, CEO Terje Osmundsen, SVP |
| Break | ||
| 09.45 – 10.45 |
3. Project development 4. Solutions |
Terje Pilskog, EVP Pål Helsing, EVP |
| Break | ||
| 11.00 – 12.00 |
5. Power Production and O&M 6. Financials and funding |
Torstein Berntsen, EVP Mikkel Tørud, CFO |
| Break | ||
| 12.15 – 13.00 |
7. EBRD – Lenders perspectives 8. Summary and Q&A |
Harry Boyd-Carpenter Raymond Carlsen, CEO |
| Raymond Carlsen, CEO |
Mr. Carlsen joined Scatec Solar in 2009 from Aker ASA, where he was responsible for the development of the company's portfolio of energy related businesses. He has more than 20 years of industrial experience from management positions. |
|---|---|
| Terje Osmundsen, SVP Business Development |
Mr. Osmundsen joined Scatec Solar in 2009 and is responsible for Business Development, Emerging Markets. Broad professional background including Prime Minister's Office, management consulting, leadership roles from telecom, engineering and energy industries. Regular contributor to industry and public debate on climate and energy issues. |
| Terje Pilskog, EVP Project Development & Project Finance |
Mr. Pilskog joined Scatec Solar in 2012 from the position as SVP of REC Systems and Business Development in Germany. Prior to REC, he was Associated Partner at the management consulting company McKinsey & Co. |
| Pål Helsing, EVP Solutions |
Mr. Helsing joined the Company in 2015 from the role as President of Kongsberg Oil and Gas Technologies AS and a member of the Kongsberg Group Executive Management Team. Before that, he held several executive positions within Aker Solutions. |
| Torstein Berntsen, EVP Power Production & Asset Management |
Mr. Berntsen joined Scatec Solar in 2010 from the position as CFO in the parent company Scatec AS. Before joining Scatec, he had more than 10 years of experience from Arthur Andersen and later Ernst & Young. |
| Mikkel Tørud, CFO | Mr. Tørud joined Scatec Solar in 2014 from the position as SVP Investor Relations and Business Development and member of Group Management in REC. Prior to REC he was commercial advisor in BP and management consultant in PA Consulting Group. |
| Harry Boyd-Carpenter, Senior Banker at EBRD |
Mr. Boyd-Carpenter is a Senior Banker in EBRD's Power and Energy Utilities team with responsibility for all EBRD's activities in the Egyptian and Jordanian power sectors. He has worked on a wide range of debt and equity transactions in the power and infrastructure sectors across Russia, Mongolia, the Caucasus, the Balkans and Jordan. |
Raymond Carlsen, CEO
Our values
Predictable Driving results Changemakers Working together
Fully integrated business model tailored for emerging markets 1
Strong global demand for PV accelerates growth in opportunities 2
Excellent track record in capturing value from complex PV projects 3
Solid asset base and a significant self funding capacity 4
Strong project pipeline supporting further growth in attractive markets 5
383 MW in operation:
602
559
Scatec has evolved and continues to adapt to market and industry dynamics
| Initiation* | From EPC provider to integrated IPP | Build asset portfolio, diversify and enhance value |
Further strategic considerations |
||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Focus | • Three times world largest solar power plants (1.6 MW) |
• Retained ownership of power plants • Breakthrough in South Africa • Established Operation & Maintenance and Asset management as separate business |
• Scaling for accelerated growth IPO and access to capital • • Geographical diversification |
• Integration / market maturity • Geographical reach • Portfolio optimization • Business offering |
|
| Year | 2001-2007 | 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 |
2013 2014 2015 2016 |
2017 2018 |
|
| Retain Ownership (IPP) | |||||
| Scope of work |
Start Operation and Maintenance (O&M) Start Design and Construction (D&C) |
||||
| Start Project Development |
* System cost will vary from market to market depending on system size, market maturity, bankability etc.
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Q1 2016 PV Market Outlook
| Phases | Origination • Opportunity |
Development • Pipeline |
Structuring • Backlog |
Delivery • Construction |
Power Production O&M • Operation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key activities | • Analysis & Intelligence • Business opportunity • Partnerships • Commercial viability |
• Site control PPA and support • agreements • Business case • Regulatory approvals/permits |
• Equity, debt structuring • Engineering |
• Procurement Construction • Management |
• Operation & Maintenance • Asset management |
426 MW IN OPERATION / UNDER CONSTRUCTION
Americas, Africa, Asia, MENA
Americas, East and West Africa, South Africa, Egypt, Pakistan
South Africa, Mali, Honduras, Brazil
* Based on currency rates as of mid April 2016. Utah Red Hills with no cash flow contribution in 2016 based on merchant pricing. The higher PPA price effective from Jan 1 2017. Part 1.12
18
Terje Osmundsen, SVP
Our values
Predictable Driving results Changemakers Working together
| Phases | Origination • Opportunity |
Development • Pipeline |
Structuring • Backlog |
Delivery • Construction |
Power Production O&M • Operation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key activities | • Analysis & Intelligence • Business opportunity • Partnerships • Commercial viability |
• Site control • PPA and support agreements • Business case • Regulatory approvals/permits |
• Equity, debt structuring • Engineering |
• Procurement • Construction Management |
• Operation & Maintenance • Asset management |
| Integration of competence and capabilities |
• structuring • • • |
• Engineering, Procurement, EPC Construction Debt and equity Finance Working capital Power market analysis Power Grid impact studies market |
Asset CSR Management The project opportunity Legal and Commercial regulatory |
• Financial optimisation • Sustainability • Plant optimisation Operation • Maintenance • Power Purchase agreements • Contract/SPV structuring |
* System cost will vary from market to market depending on system size, market maturity, bankability etc.
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Q1 2016 PV Market Outlook
Source: GTM, Solar Summit, May 2016
7%
kWh/Capita OECD Average 252 435 293 7.000 6.000 9.000 8.000 1.000 0 5.000 4.000 2.000 3.000 Egypt Bangladesh 1.697 South Africa 4.328 Mozambique Cote D'Ivoire Global Average Mozambique 15% South Africa 6% 8% Bangladesh 0% Egypt Mali Energy consumption per capita 2013 Average annual growth in power consumption
Source: World Bank, Development Indicators
Illustrative dispatch graph showing dispatch of coal and oil-fired power plants
Source: Lazard Capital, LCOE v 9.0, Scatec Solar
• Project development and investment partner in West Africa, South Asia
• Multilateral development banks and commercial institutions
| Phase | Origination | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Opportunity | Attract and identify opportunities | Develop and manage business case | Enter pipeline |
| Activities | • In-depth market and trend analysis • External communication, stakeholder presentations, building relationships • Efficient screening of enquires |
• Evaluate and secure land • Explore finance arrangements • Social and environmental and grid assessment Negotiate initial commercial arrangements • |
|
| Know-how | • Business innovation • Thought leadership Inter-cultural understanding and • awareness |
• Technical-financial • Deep socio-economic understanding Project and relationship management • |
|
| Network | Finance and other business partners • • NGOs • "Team Norway" • Developers and national stakeholders • Local stakeholders |
• Co-development partners • Off-taker and host government agencies • DFIs, project and climate finance partners • Technology and equipment providers |
Terje Pilskog, EVP
Our values
Predictable Driving results Changemakers Working together
| Phases | Origination • Opportunity |
Development • Pipeline |
Structuring • Backlog |
Delivery • Construction |
Power Production O&M • Operation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key activities | • Analysis & Intelligence Business • opportunity • Partnerships • Commercial viability |
• Site control • PPA and support agreements • Business case Regulatory • approvals /permits |
• Equity, debt structuring • Engineering |
• Procurement • Construction Management |
• Operation & Maintenance • Asset management |
| Integration of competence and capabilities |
• structuring • • • |
• Engineering, Procurement, EPC Construction Debt and equity Finance Working capital Power market analysis Power Grid impact studies market |
Asset CSR Management The project opportunity Legal and Commercial regulatory |
• Financial optimisation • Sustainability • Plant optimisation Operation • Maintenance • Power Purchase agreements • Contract/SPV structuring |
| Activity | Opportunity Ongoing |
Development 6-18 months |
Structuring 6-9 months |
|---|---|---|---|
| Development partners | |||
| Development budget | |||
| Site selection |
|||
| Site surveying | |||
| PPA | |||
| Environmental permits | |||
| Socialization of project | |||
| Pre-design / engineering | |||
| Support Agreement | |||
| Grid connection |
|||
| Legal structure | |||
| Construction permits | |||
| Business case validation |
| Activity | Development 6-18 months |
Structuring 6-9 months |
|---|---|---|
| Establish Financial Model | ||
| Test interest / share PIM |
||
| Indicative terms | ||
| Share Financial Model |
||
| Sign mandate letters | ||
| Negotiate Term Sheets | ||
| Negotiate project documents |
||
| Technical and legal due diligence | ||
| Credit committee | ||
| Negotiate loan documents | ||
| Board approval | ||
| Sign loan documents | ||
| Conditions precedent |
||
| Financial close and first disbursement |
50 MW solar power plant example Capex and funding in %
Simplified illustration of company structure and main contracts in place
Our values
Predictable Driving results Changemakers Working together
Our integrated approach is key to provide an optimised solution from project development through construction, operation and maintenance to power production.
Value-contribution to our integrated model:
Scatec Solar projects under construction
| Phases | Origination Opportunity • |
Development Pipeline • |
Structuring Backlog • |
Delivery Construction • |
Power Production O&M Operation • |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key activities | Analysis & • Intelligence • Business opportunity Partnerships • • Commercial viability |
• Site control • PPA and support agreements • Business case • Regulatory approvals/permits |
• Equity, debt structuring • Engineering |
• Procurement • Construction Management |
• Operation & Maintenance • Asset management |
| Integration of competence and capabilities |
• structuring Working capital • • • |
• Engineering, Procurement, EPC Construction Debt and equity Finance Power market analysis Power Grid impact studies market |
Asset CSR Management The project opportunity Legal and Commercial regulatory |
• Financial optimisation • Sustainability • Plant optimisation Operation • Maintenance • Power Purchase agreements • Contract/SPV structuring |
383 MW in operation:
602
559
Sourcing based on frame agreements focusing on cost, quality and delivery assurance
| Agua Fria, Honduras 60 MW |
Dreunberg, South Africa 75 MW |
ASYV, Rwanda 9 MW |
|
|---|---|---|---|
| Jobs Created (Mounting and construction workers during peak construction period) |
1,050 | 1,400 | 600 |
| % Local Employees* | 82% | 77% | 85% |
| Numbers of workers with documented skill enhancement |
275** | 142*** | 400** |
| Lost Time Injuries (Incident resulting in absence of one day/shift or more) |
2 | 0 | 1 |
Our integrated approach is key to provide an optimised solution from project development through construction, operation and maintenance to power production.
A robust project execution model:
Scatec Solar projects under construction
Our values
Predictable Driving results Changemakers Working together
| Phases | Origination | Development | Structuring | Delivery | Power Production O&M |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opportunity • |
Pipeline • |
Backlog • |
Construction • |
Operation • |
|
| Key activities | Analysis & • Intelligence • Business opportunity Partnerships • • Commercial viability |
• Site control • PPA and support agreements • Business case • Regulatory approvals/permits |
• Equity, debt structuring • Engineering |
• Procurement • Construction Management |
• Operation & Maintenance • Asset management |
| Integration of competence and capabilities |
• structuring Working capital • • • |
• Engineering, Procurement, EPC Construction Debt and equity Finance Power market analysis Power Grid impact studies market |
Asset CSR Management The project opportunity Legal and Commercial regulatory |
• Financial optimisation • Sustainability • Plant optimisation Operation • Maintenance • Power Purchase agreements • Contract/SPV structuring |
• Simplified illustration of company structure and main contracts in place
Week
While solar irradiation generally has low interannual variability (1 Standard Deviation = +/- 5% in most of the locations relevant to SSO), it is normal to observe significant variations in shorter time periods.
1) Expected monthly irradiation as per business case assumptions at financial close
Week
A 5 week rolling average shows significantly less volatility, but it is still normal to observe +/- 15% variance in irradiation on a monthly basis. The seasonal pattern is still very clear.
1) Expected monthly irradiation as per business case assumptions at financial close
1) Expected monthly irradiationas per business case assumptions at financial close
Comparing irradiation to production output, we see that the slightly lower than P50 irradiation observed so far on the plant has been more than offset by higher availability and performance than what was expected in the investment case.
1) Expected monthly irradiation/production as per business case assumptions at financial close
Equity IRR
Mikkel Tørud, CFO
Our values
Predictable Driving results Changemakers Working together
The 60 MW Agua Fria solar power plant in Honduras
• 2016 cash flow to equity from PP and O&M: NOK 180-200 million
(*) Cash flow to equity is defined as EBITDA less normalised (i.e. average over each calendar year) loan and net interest repayments, less normalised income tax payments. The definition implies changes in net working capital and investing activities are excluded from the figure.
* Based on tariff of 11 USD cent/kWh
| Sources: | |
|---|---|
| CF from PP and O&M |
~180-200 |
| D&C cash flow* |
~420-570 |
| Total | ~600 – 770 |
| Uses: | |
| SSO equity investments |
~500-650 |
| Corporate cost + dividends |
~120-130 |
(*) 50 MW solar power plant example
| Power price | • Fixed for 20-25 years, normally inflation adjusted • USD/EUR denominated or pegged tariff except in Czech and South Africa |
|---|---|
| Currency | Project Company: • Project company structure debt in same currency as long term revenues • Project company hedges any currency exposure during construction (milestone payments) |
| EPC/ SSO ASA : • Milestone payments from project company structured to minimize currency exposure • Long term project company distributions not hedged |
|
| Interest rate | 94% of project finance debt in group is on fixed interest of minimum 10 years from COD • • Corporate bond NOK 500 million – interest rate not hedged |
| Credit / counterparty | • Power purchase agreements with state owned utilities with government guarantees backing payment obligations • Political Risk Insurance considered in certain markets • Utah plant – solid investment grade rated off-taker |
| Full Year 2015 (NOK million) |
Power Production |
Operation & Maintenance |
Development & Construction |
Corporate | Eliminations | Consolidated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| External revenues |
863.0 | 4.1 | 0.7 | - | - | 867.7 |
| Internal revenues | - | 51.4 | 1,146.6 | 7.5 | -1,205.5 | - |
| Net gain/(loss) from sale of project assets | - | - | 14.1 | - | - | 14.1 |
| Net income / (loss) from associates |
- | - | -0.9 | - | - | -0.9 |
| Total revenues and other income |
863.0 | 55.4 | 1,160.5 | 7.5 | -1,205.5 | 881.0 |
| Cost of sales | - | - | -989.7 | - | 989.7 | - |
| Gross profit | 863.0 | 55.4 | 170.8 | 7.5 | -215.8 | 881.0 |
| Operating expenses | -102.9 | -24.0 | -69.7 | -44.8 | 58.8 | -182.6 |
| EBITDA | 760.1 | 31.4 | 101.2 | -37.3 | -156.9 | 698.4 |
| Depreciation, amortisation and impairment |
-227.6 | -2.6 | -6.5 | -0.5 | 61.6 | -175.6 |
| Operating profit (EBIT) | 532.5 | 28.8 | 94.6 | -37.8 | -95.4 | 522.8 |
| Full year 2015 - NOK million |
Power Production |
O&M | D&C | Corporate | Total | Elim. | Consolidated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues | 863.0 | 55.4 | 1,160.5 | 7.5 | 2,086.4 | -1,205.5 | 881.0 |
| EBITDA | 760.1 | 31.4 | 101.2 | -37.3 | 855.4 | -156.9 | 698.4 |
| Net interest & loan repayments |
-421.1 | -0.1 | 6.8 | -414.4 | |||
| Total cash flow to equity*: |
290.8 | 23.6 | 75.6 | -22.1 | 367.9 | ||
| SSO share of CF to equity*: |
130.6 | 23.6 | 75.6 | -22.1 | 207.7 |
(*) Cash flow to equity is defined as EBITDA less normalised (i.e. average over each calendar year) loan and net interest repayments, less normalised income tax payments. The definition implies changes in net working capital and investing activities are excluded from the figure.
Build up of PP&E as per 31.03.2016 NOKm
Scatec Solar Capital Markets Day – 31 May 2016 Harry Boyd-Carpenter, Senior Banker, Power and Energy Utilities
AAA-rated, multilateral development bank, founded in 1991 to promote transition to modern and well-functioning markets
Since 1991, EBRD invested over €107 billion in over 4,400 projects across private and public sectors in its countries of operations, including:
67 shareholders: 65 countries (China became the most recent member in 2016) and two institution
29%
Note: Unaudited as at end December 2014
Natural Resources -8% Power and Energy - 18% Net cumulative business volume €95bn
87 Part 7.4
Source: IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 2015 – annual power sector deployment rates in the Two Degrees Scenario. Part 7.8
Scatec Solar Capital Markets Day – 31 May 2016 Harry Boyd-Carpenter, Senior Banker, Power and Energy Utilities
Raymond Carlsen, CEO
Our values
Predictable Driving results Changemakers Working together
Our values Predictable Driving results Change makers Working together
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