Quarterly Report • Aug 21, 2017
Quarterly Report
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August 22nd 2017
10.00-10:15: Coffee and snack 10.15-11.15: Company update and claims handling 11.15-11.45: Investments 11.45-12:00: Coffee and snack 12.00-12.30: IT and digitalization 12.30-13.00: UK 13.00-13.15: Summary and Q&A
Questions allowed through presentation
Project Manager Finland
Employee since 2015
Dag Marius Nereng (44) – Chief Investment Officer
10.15-11.15: Company update with claims handling in focus
Vision The Challenger
Business Idea This will happen through unique relationships. best in class decision-making and cost effective solutions
Main targets Cost and quality leadership Profitable growth Top 3
Values Credible Open Bold Committed
5
Next Level Management training program, NGL and talent development Next Level
World class staff also adding value to business units and process development
Peers with comparable cost figures are industrial/corporate segment at If and Tryg
Cost ratio of 1.1% vs 3.2% for industry (Gartner Inc.)
| Gross expense ratio |
2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PRF | 11.2 % | 12.1 % | 11.9 % | 10.0 % | 7.7 % | 8.8 % | 7.6 % | 7.5 % | 6.8 % |
| Gjensidige | 17.0 % | 17.7 % | 16.5 % | 16.4 % | 15.5 % | 15.3 % | 15.0 % | 15.1 % | 14.2 % |
| Codan/Trygg-Hansa1 | 20.2 % | 20.4 % | 16.7 % | 17.6 % | 18.6 % | 19.5 % | 21.2 % | 16.4 % | 14.8 % |
| Tryg | 17.1 % | 17.2 % | 17.0 % | 16.6 % | 16.4 % | 15.6 % | 14.6 % | 15.3 % | 15.7 % |
| Topdanmark | 14.7 % | 14.9 % | 15.4 % | 15.7 % | 15.8 % | 16.2 % | 15.7 % | 15.9 % | 16.4 % |
| If | 17.4 % | 17.6 % | 17.2 % | 17.3 % | 16.9 % | 16.8 % | 16.7 % | 13.0 % | 16.6 % |
| LF | 21.0 % | 22.0 % | 22.0 % | 21.0 % | 21.0 % | 19.0 % | 19.0 % | 19.0 % | 19.0 % |
| KLP | 26.7 % | 29.1 % | 30.4 % | 26.5 % | 26.4 % | 26.2 % | 23.1 % | 21.1 % | 22.8 % |
| Avg. ex. PRF | 19.2 % | 19.8 % | 19.3 % | 18.7 % | 18.7 % | 18.4 % | 17.9 % | 16.5 % | 17.1 % |
1Numbers for Codan only before merger with Trygg-Hansa in 2015 and RSA Group Scandinavian segment in 2015
9
Source: TNS Gallup surveys
| п ◢ |
||
|---|---|---|
| И w. |
| Revenue growth (GWP) |
2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | Avg. 08-16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PRF | 9.6 % | 19.5 % | 16.1 % | 19.0 % | 26.1 % | 22.7 % | 27.6 % | 19.7 % | 21.0 % | 20.1 % |
| KLP | 3.4 % | 4.7 % | 5.0 % | 3.0 % | 15.4 % | 10.9 % | 10.7 % | 20.8 % | 13.8 % | 9.8 % |
| Gjensidige | -1.8 % | 0.2 % | 24.0 % | 5.7 % | 2.1 % | 7.7 % | 7.9 % | 7.4 % | 5.7 % | 6.5 % |
| LF | 4.2 % | 2.3 % | 2.2 % | 3.3 % | 3.2 % | 3.5 % | 7.4 % | 5.4 % | 6.0 % | 4.2 % |
| Codan/Trygg-Hansa1 | 12.8 % | 1.7 % | 0.3 % | -0.3 % | 7.2 % | -1.0 % | -0.8 % | 3.5 % | 7.2 % | 3.4 % |
| Tryg | 4.4 % | 5.2 % | 9.1 % | 2.4 % | 1.8 % | -4.0 % | -4.4 % | -2.7 % | -1.7 % | 1.1 % |
| If | -0.7 % | -4.2 % | 7.7 % | 5.4 % | 6.4 % | 1.5 % | -2.8 % | -1.6 % | -2.2 % | 1.1 % |
| Topdanmark | 0.8 % | -3.1 % | -1.4 % | 1.4 % | 1.0 % | 1.5 % | 2.6 % | -2.6 % | -1.6 % | -0.2 % |
| Avg. ex. PRF | 3.3 % | 1.0 % | 6.7 % | 3.0 % | 5.3 % | 2.9 % | 2.9 % | 4.3 % | 3.9 % | 3.7 % |
1Numbers for Codan only before merger with Trygg-Hansa in 2015 and RSA Group Scandinavian segment in 2015
| Combined ratio |
2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | H1'17 | Avg. 08-16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Topdanmark | 82.4 % | 91.1 % | 93.3 % | 90.3 % | 88.0 % | 91.5 % | 86.0 % | 87.3 % | 85.1 % | 81.8 % | 88.3 % |
| Gjensidige | 94.4 % | 94.8 % | 95.3 % | 91.9 % | 85.3 % | 89.2 % | 86.0 % | 83.7 % | 83.4 % | 85.0 % | 89.3 % |
| If | 91.8 % | 92.1 % | 92.8 % | 92.0 % | 89.3 % | 88.1 % | 87.7 % | 85.4 % | 84.4 % | 86.5 % | 89.3 % |
| Tryg | 88.2 % | 92.2 % | 98.8 % | 93.2 % | 88.2 % | 87.7 % | 84.2 % | 86.8 % | 86.7 % | 84.4 % | 89.6 % |
| PRF | 95.8 % | 97.8 % | 94.2 % | 85.3 % | 86.2 % | 86.7 % | 84.5 % | 88.7 % | 97.0 % | 88.9 % | 90.7 % |
| Codan/Trygg-Hansa1 | 98.5 % | 100.4 % | 101.8 % | 102.4 % | 94.3 % | 95.3 % | 90.4 % | 94.0 % | 86.2 % | 81.9 % | 95.1 % |
| LF | 93.0 % | 96.0 % | 102.0 % | 100.0 % | 98.0 % | 97.0 % | 93.0 % | 91.0 % | 95.0 % | 93.0 % | 96.1 % |
| KLP | 97.3 % | 95.5 % | 121.9 % | 118.1 % | 107.8 % | 103.7 % | 91.9 % | 98.8 % | 98.7 % | n/a | 103.7 % |
| Avg. ex. PRF | 92.2 % | 94.6 % | 100.8 % | 98.3 % | 92.8 % | 92.3 % | 88.5 % | 89.6 % | 88.5 % | 85.4 %* |
93.1 % |
1Numbers for Codan only before merger with Trygg-Hansa in 2015 and RSA Group Scandinavian segment in 2015. Numbers updated through Q2 2016 * Average excl. KLP
| Return on investments |
2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | H1'17 | Avg. 08-16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PRF | -2.1 % | 16.1 % | 9.7 % | -2.3 % | 8.9 % | 7.0 % | 5.3 % | 5.3 % | 7.0 % | 1.7 % |
6.1 % |
| KLP skadeforsikring | 0.4 % | 8.3 % | 7.2 % | 4.5 % | 6.5 % | 6.5 % | 6.5 % | 4.4 % | 6.1 % | n/a | 5.6 % |
| If | -3.1 % | 12.4 % | 7.4 % | 1.8 % | 6.1 % | 5.0 % | 4.1 % | 1.5 % | 2.9 % | 2.4 % | 4.2 % |
| Tryg | 3.5 % | 6.6 % | 4.3 % | 4.8 % | 5.1 % | 2.5 % | 4.3 % | 0.7 % | 3.7 % | 2.7 % | 3.9 % |
| Gjensidige | -0.6 % | 5.5 % | 5.2 % | 4.4 % | 5.4 % | 4.3 % | 4.3 % | 2.6 % | 3.9 % | 2.0 % | 3.9 % |
| Codan/Trygg-Hansa1 | 5.6 % | 5.9 % | 3.5 % | 3.0 % | 3.9 % | -0.4 % | 3.9 % | 3.2 % | 2.8 % | 1.1 % | 3.5 % |
| Topdanmark | -6.9 % | 7.3 % | 4.8 % | 3.1 % | 6.9 % | 4.1 % | 3.4 % | 1.0 % | 4.4 % |
0.9 % | 3.1 % |
| LF | -14.0 % | 10.0 % | 6.0 % | -2.0 % | 5.0 % | 6.1 % | 6.5 % | 4.5 % | 5.6 % | 2.5 % | 3.1 % |
| Avg. ex. PRF | -2.2 % | 8.0 % | 5.5 % | 2.8 % | 5.6 % | 4.0 % | 4.7 % | 2.6 % | 4.2 % | 1.9 % | 3.9 % |
1Numbers for Codan only before merger with Trygg-Hansa in 2015 and RSA Group Scandinavian segment in 2015
Protector is gaining volume on the expense of our competitors – growing through:
* GWP YTD '17 ex COI
Keep up the good work
Profitable growth + Investments = Good results
• The last 10 years only AF Gruppen has performed better than Protector in the Norwegian stock market
• Long term investors have earned a total return of 877% over the period
• CAGR of 26% - more than 5x what you would have gotten from index investing
«Preparing for continued growth»
*Per august 9th 2018
10.15-11.15: Company update with claims handling in focus
10.15-11.15: Company update with claims handling in focus
Ready to challenge
*Including Hannover Re deal (pr. 30.06.2017)
| Full year 2016 | PRF | RSA |
|---|---|---|
| Cost ratio | 6.8 % | 15.2 % |
| Combined ratio ('08-'16) | 90.7 % | 96.2 % |
| Geographic diversification | 43% | 48% |
| Percentage subordinate loan of adj solvency capital * |
53% | 20% |
| Solvency Capital end Q1 '17 | 185% | 166% |
| Solvency Capital 2016 | 163% | 158% |
| Return On Equity (2007-2016) | 24.35% | 6.88% |
* FactSet Numbers
• Both of the securities were set with the following floating
rates
RSA: STIBOR 3 month + 5,25% Protector: NIBOR 3 month + 5,00%
| [1.000.000 NOK] | 30.06.2017 | 30.06.2016 | 31.12.2016 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Owner-occupied property | 13,7 | 13,6 | 13,7 |
| Financial assets* | 11 398,3 | 8 261,5 | 8 537,6 |
| Bank deposits | 285,5 | 45,9 | 204,3 |
| Other assets | 2 173,8 | 1 372,1 | 1 091,7 |
| Total assets | 13 871,4 | 9 693,1 | 9 847,4 |
| Total equity | 2 317,2 | 2 051,3 | 2 268,2 |
| Subordinated loan capital | 1 241,4 | 648,1 | 645,9 |
| Total reserves | 7 282,6 | 5 551,4 | 5 148,0 |
| Other liabilities* | 3 030,1 | 1 442,3 | 1 785,3 |
| Total equity and liabilities | 13 871,4 | 9 693,1 | 9 847,4 |
* Financial derivatives has for informational purposes been netted in this balance sheet.
Cushion against negative solvency changes – effective from July 1st
No payments from 2018 suggested
*Base scenario indicates higher growth rate than guided
Prepared for continuous growth
*Return on Solvency Capital until 2016 when reflecting changes in accounting principles from Jan. 1st 2016 where Shareholder's Equity includes security provisions **Annualized
10.15-11.15: Company update with claims handling in focus
Keep up the good work
Strengthen competitive position through Next Level claims handling - Falcon
All criteria defined and measured in every claim
Competitor 7
Competitor 8
30
2016 2015 2014
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
55
0 20 40 60 80 100
2016 2015 2014
Reducing leakage and Recourse
Definition
Reducing leakage and Recourse
Motor claims handling Sweden
| KPI's Motor | 2012 | 2013 Mål 2014 FC 2014 Mål 2015 Mål 2016 Mål 2017 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vehicles # | 20 04 2 | 44 942 | 75 350 | 75350 | 100 000 | 130 000 | 160000 |
| Motor claims # | 3554 | 8893 | 16700 | 16700 | 21000 | 27 300 | 35000 |
| Motor claims #/FTE | 1350 | 1 1 0 0 | 1 200 | 1550 | 1850 | 2 1 2 5 | 2400 |
| Change Y/Y | $-19%$ | 9% | 41% | 19% | 15% | 13%; | |
| Cost ratio per claim | 1050 | 910 | 876 | 6991 | 603 | 541 | 493 |
| Claims cost ratio % | 11,70% | 10,10% | 9,70% | $7,7\%$ $-6,7\%$ | 6,0% | 5.5% |
Company project, started in 2016
Clean Desk-standards defined on every Claims Handling-team. All Claims…
Never compromise on quality
Monitored daily, reported monthly
Internal competitions part of Clean Desk-project
• E.g. "Clean Green Summer" (Summer 2017, ice cream to teams with 100 % score that week)
CleanDesk Scorecard July 2017
| Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eierskifte | 96 | 95 | 99 | 99 | 98 | 98 | 97 |
| % | % | % | % | % | % | % | |
| Skadeoppgjør | 91 | 98 | 97 | 98 | 97 | 98 | 99 |
| % | % | % | % | % | % | % | |
| Prosess | % | % | % | % | % | % | % |
| 100 | 92 | 100 | 100 | 98 | 98 | 94 | |
| Bedrift | 93 | 73 | 66 | 80 | 91 | 95 | 99 |
| Norge | % | % | % | % | % | % | % |
| Person | % | % | % | % | % | % | % |
| 90 | 78 | 71 | 94 | 97 | 94 | 98 | |
| Auto | 82 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
| % | % | % | % | % | % | % | |
| Ting | 100 | 94 | 91 | 82 | 93 | 100 | 100 |
| % | % | % | % | % | % | % | |
| Ansvar | 100 | 20 | 0 | 44 | 72 | 88 | 97 |
| % | % | % | % | % | % | % | |
| Bedrift | 100 | 98 | 98 | 94 | 96 | 98 | 99 |
| Sverige | % | % | % | % | % | % | % |
| linje | 100 | 100 | 99 | 100 | 99 | 100 | 100 |
| 1. | % | % | % | % | % | % | % |
| Person | % | % | % | % | % | % | % |
| 100 | 100 | 97 | 96 | 100 | 95 | 100 | |
| Auto | 100 | 100 | 99 | 99 | 97 | 99 | 95 |
| % | % | % | % | % | % | % | |
| Ting | 100 | 98 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 100 | 98 |
| % | % | % | % | % | % | % | |
| Ansvar | 100 | 90 | 100 | 78 | 85 | 97 | 100 |
| % | % | % | % | % | % | % | |
| Bedrift | 100 | 100 | 92 | 97 | 95 | 97 | 99 |
| Danmark | % | % | % | % | % | % | % |
| Bedrift | % | % | % | % | % | % | % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danmark | 100 | 100 | 92 | 97 | 95 | 97 | 99 |
| Person | 100 | 100 | 94 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
| % | % | % | % | % | % | % | |
| linje Auto, 1. |
100 % |
100 % |
91 % |
97 % |
100 % |
95 % |
100 % |
| Auto | 100 | 100 | 90 | 96 | 81 | 90 | 100 |
| % | % | % | % | % | % | % | |
| Ting | 100 | 100 | 91 | 92 | 95 | 100 | 100 |
| % | % | % | % | % | % | % | |
| Ansvar | 100 | 100 | 91 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 95 |
| % | % | % | % | % | % | % | |
| Totalt | 98 | 92 | 88 | 92 | 95 | 97 | 98 |
| % | % | % | % | % | % | % |
• Competitions, rewards and social gatherings motivates
Enhancing customer experience
| Norway | |
|---|---|
| Group Life | |
| First phone contact | |
| Last phone contact | |
| Sweden | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Auto | ||||
| Claim settled | ||||
| Person | ||||
| Sick leave first contact | ||||
| Sick leave last contact | ||||
| First phone contact | ||||
| Last phone contact | ||||
| Property | ||||
| Claim settled | ||||
| Liability | ||||
| Claim settled | ||||
| Denmark | |
|---|---|
| Liability | |
| Claim settled | |
However, behind peers in claims handling
| 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| If P&C | 17,3% | 16,9% | 16,8% | 16,7% | 13,0%* | 16,6% |
| RSA scandinavia | 17,6% | 18,6% | 19,5% | 21,2% | 16,4% | 14,8% |
| Länsförsäkringar | 21,0% | 21,0% | 19,0% | 19,0% | 19,0% | 19,0% |
| Protector | 10,0% | 7,7% | 8,8% | 7,6% | 7,5% | 6,8% |
Protector is clearly ahead on gross cost ratio….
*Pension funds cost decrease
| 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| If P&C | 6,2% | 6,10% | 6,0% | 5,8% | 5,8% | 5,7% |
| RSA scandinavia | 8,0% | 7,6% | 7,6% | 6,9% | 7,0% | 7,0% |
| Länsförsäkringar estimate |
8,0% | 8,0% | 8,0% | 8,0% | 8,0% | 8,0% |
| Protector | 6,9% | 6,5% | 7,5%* |
* 8,1% incl. COI
Remember – Claims handling cost in Protector have lower overhead costs allocated than competitors (IT and Admin)
Peregrine Falcon (Vandrefalk)
| Purpose, scope & delimitations | |
|---|---|
| -- | -------------------------------- |
Internal quality
External quality / customer satisfaction
All in all: the world's fastest
Vision 2020
• Best practice processes
• IT-requirements
• Templates • Partners • Education
2017-2020
• SE Mikael H, Fredrik L
48
Customer quality
Falcon 2020: Strengthening our competitive position through efficiency improvements and further quality improvement
| Falcon objective |
KPI | Effect of Falcon |
Competitive position increased by |
|---|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | Claims handling cost-% |
Increase efficiency 25-35% | 1,5-2% |
| Quality improvements | Claims cost and renewal rate | 1,5-2% | |
| Total | 3-4% |
Next Level Management training program, NGL and talent development Next Level
World class staff also adding value to business units and process development
10.15-11.15: Company update with claims handling in focus
Strengthen competitive position through Next Level claims handling -
Falcon
"Insurers receive premiums upfront and pay claims later. ... This collectnow, pay-later model leaves us holding large sums — money we call "float" — that will eventually go to others. Meanwhile, we get to invest this float for our benefit. ..."
HTD 2/3 of Protector's net income has come from investments
Investment Strategy Equities
| Philosophy | • Long term oriented (5 years to forever) • Patience – willing to wait for great opportunities • Concentrated portfolio (10-20 holdings) • Focus on continuous improvement of process |
|---|---|
| Type of investments |
• Great companies • Strong management • Price with an implied margin of safety • Profitable growth |
| Main Risks | • No indexing – returns can diverge from index • Key people considerations |
| Bought | Sold | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Schibsted (sold Dec '15) Zooplus |
B2 Holding (Target reached) AF Gruppen (Target reached) Norwegian (Other causes) Intrum (Terrible merger) |
| Key Figures | Equity Portfolio | OSEBX |
|---|---|---|
| Performance | 121,6% | 13,3% |
| Dividend yield | 2,3% | 4,1% |
| P/E Next 12m* |
13,9 | 14,8 |
| 3 yr sales CAGR |
27% | -2% |
| 3 yr EPS CAGR |
27,9% | -7,6% |
*Factset estimates except for one company not listed where own estimates are used
Investment performance evaluated over the long term
* Protector EPS graph represents today's portfolio and has not been adjusted for changes in composition **ABGSC numbers (ajd. EPS)
Investment strategy Fixed Income
Reduced risk, A- vs BBB+ last CMD – no reaching for yield
| Factor | 30.06.2017 |
|---|---|
| Market value (NOK m) |
7 461 |
| Yield (%) |
2,3 |
| Spread (bp) |
163 |
| Average rating |
A |
| Duration (yrs) |
0,4 |
| Credit duration (yrs) |
3,0 |
| Internally managed % share |
85 % |
*Rating is a mix of official rating and own rating
Sector distribution development
| 12M | consumption | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1,3 | 54 | $-33%$ | -70 % | 3,0% |
| Internally managed portfolio data 30.06.2017 |
||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Size NOK m | 6 209 | |||||
| Yield | 2,5% | |||||
| Duration | 0,4 | |||||
| Credit duration | 3,2 | |||||
| Average rating |
BBB+1 |
Performance – Internally managed portfolio2 vs. benchmark3 (31.03.2015 – 30.06.2017)
65 1Average rating based on official and shadow rating
2Protector graph adjusted for the difference between NIBOR, STIBOR and CIBOR from February and March '17 when portfolios were created in Sweden and Denmark 3Benchmark bond portfolio made up by basket of cross-over funds: Storebrand Rente +, Arctic Return Class I, Carnegie Corp. Bond, Handelsbanken Høyrente, Holberg Kreditt, Pareto Høyrente, Alfred Berg Income, Eika Kreditt, Landkreditt Høyrente, Skagen Høyrente
| Non-mark | $\overline{\phantom{a}}$ |
|---|---|
| $-11$ | ANALOG AREN'NY AREA (ANARONAL EN ANN ARANGER) |
| 81. HEX |
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| gon. 11479 |
the first that the property of the property of the control and the property |
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I contributions a service considerate committee and com- ABOVE . There were also said in alleged at adjustice with a prob- WHEN IS R. M. LEWIS CO., LANSING MICH. |
| 147.5 | from their fundational collection in an independent of the RFS. |
| Bottom-up analysis | Quarterly update | New ideas and watchlist | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market dashboard | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| --- |
||||||||
Note 1: Computer Aided Design Note 2: Ex. cash
Checklist approach to support investment evaluation
Isn't a CAD1 program a pure commodity?
Support intensive
• An established and well trained support organization – very high customer satisfaction
Growth
| Balance sheet and capital allocation |
• Limited booked tangible and intangible assets. • Net cash of ~1-1,5x EBIT– • ~All earnings distributed as dividend |
no change expected, but significant untapped debt capacity is a plus |
|---|---|---|
| Management and Organization |
• All stakeholder interest aligned Strong long term oriented owner operator management. 40% of employees owns shares in the company Low employee turnover, 3% of revenue spent on employee training Organization with laser focus on customer service and satisfaction – risk service quality |
shown willingness to sacrifice short term growth to not |
| Other FUW / Check List Items |
In what way does accounting figures differ from underlying performance? What important things do we not know? Cyclicality (and where are we in the cycle)? What are the relevant base rates for this investment? List all possible behavioral and decision making biases we could face. |
Why is the other side selling? Why is it cheap? Regulatory risk? Do we really understand it? Why not in the too hard basket? Macro risk factors (Housing bubble, Economic recession, higher interest rate, commodity prices etc.) Perform a pre-mortem |
Stock Return = [Earnings Growth] + [Dividend / Share Buyback] + [Multiple Expansion / Contraction]
| Expected Returns | 17,0 % |
Sales Per Share |
Margin | Utbytte | Reprising1 | Forventet | Comment | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 year | Scenario 1 - Management meets internal budget (2020). Continued MS gains kitchen + price + successful penetration for bath |
60% | 13% | 5% | 5% | 0,0 % | 23% | LTM P/E of Ending 20 |
| expected return (SMURF) |
Scenario 2 - Bath solution fails to take off in new countries. Slower but continued MS gains in kitchen + price increases. |
30% | 7% | 3% | 5% | -5,6 % | 9% | LTM P/E Ending 15 |
| Scenario 3 - Distruptive competitive shift, limited new business and high churn. |
10% | -5% | -4% | 3% | -12,9 % | -19% | LTM P/E Ending 10. Loss of around 65% |
Sum 100% 9,4 % 3,5 % 4,8 % -3,0 % 17,0 %
Margin of safety and key investment points Key Risks
5 year expected returns (SMURF)
Key Risks and Investment points
Strong owner operator management and organization aligned with shareholders
Any change diluting importance of product catalogue database and maintenance.
Better than peers, prepared for future
11.45-12.00: Coffee and snack
Internal Days or weeks > 1600 in 2016 500 a year 1% Insourced
Development Time to market Innovations Releases Cost ratio Operations
External Months or years ?? Monthly? 3,5% Outsourced
112
The world is changing So are we…
"Our intuition about the future is linear. But the reality of information technology is exponential, and that makes a profound difference. If I take 30 steps linearly, I get to 30. If I take 30 steps exponentially, I get to a billion."
The biggest risk is not taking any risk... In a world that changing really quickly, the only strategy that is guaranteed to fail is not taking risks.
Innovation is moving at a scarily fast pace
Protector's «founding fathers», the Chairman, the CEO and the IT director all has extensive background from the IT/Insurance industry
All core insurance systems are developed in-house, it's religion
Protector Insurance Application (PIA)
Claims application (CLAIMS)
First UW robot made 2004
First five years characterized by: «Waiting for Critical mass»
In due time
• Low IT cost
Gradually moving towards robustness, but…
• IT + Insurance =
«There is no such thing as IT problems, the only challenge we have is the potential lack of skills to describe what we need»
Post Grenfell Tower Tragedy
A stronger focus than ever is on Fire & Safety in UK
Thousands of people are now discussing and implementing improvements
New regulations and laws will gradually appear
Many risks will improve - but how much
Protector Risk Management post Grenfell Tower Strategy started
| Subproject & Milestones | Deadline | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Technical education of UW's -Training stage 1 -Training stage 2 |
6.7.17 Autumn |
|
| UW, current Tower Block exposure and portfolio analyses -Internal UW review -Tower Exposure (high priority locations inspected) -Tower Exposure (medium and low priority locations inspected) -First hand inspections and inspections planning -One to one meetings with customers |
13.7.17 20.7.17 21.7.17 11.7.17 |
|
| Underwriting procedures and portfolio analysis -Update guidelines and questionnaires -Implementation -RM library |
21.7.17 2.8.17 2.8.17 |
|
| Inspections; background and updated routine -Updated guidelines and evaluations -Implementation |
2.8.17 6.8.17 |
| Public | |
|---|---|
The Nordics are ranked somewhat high (Protector's opinion)
Discussed with Board of directors during the process
The UK public sector, Holland and part of Belgium were assessed as strong starting points
| Austria Belgium Germany Netherlands Poland |
Switzerland | United Kingdom | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Criteria | Rating | Score | Rating | Score | Rating | Score | Rating | Score | Rating | Score | Rating | Score | Rating | Score | ||
| 1 Product Mix | 2 | 0.40 | 3 | 0.67 | 3 | 0.67 | 4 | 0.80 | 4 | 0.73 | 3 | 0.60 | 5 | 0.93 | ||
| 2 Cost ratios | 3 | 1.07 | 4 | 1.47 | 3 | 1.20 | 4 | 1.60 | 4 | 1.60 | 3 | 1.20 | 4 | 1.60 | ||
| 3.0 Market combined ratios | 2 | 0.20 | 4 | 0.35 | 2 | 0.23 | 3 | 0.28 | 3 | 0.30 | 3 | 0.30 | 4 | 0.35 | ||
| 4.0 Brokers' position | 1 | 0.25 | 4 | 0.92 | 2 | 0.58 | 4 | 1.00 | 2 | 0.42 | 3 | 0.67 | 4 | 1.08 | ||
| 5.0 Cultural challenges | 1 | 0.05 | 3 | 0.13 | 4 | 0.18 | 5 | 0.23 | 2 | 0.10 | 3 | 0.13 | 4 | 0.20 | ||
| Total | 1.97 | 3.53 | 2.85 | 3.90 | 3.15 | 2.89 | 4.17 | |||||||||
| naliniiy | ι νιαι συν | |
|---|---|---|
| $\overline{\mathbf{1}}$ | Netherlands | 3,90 |
| $\overline{2}$ | Belgium | 3,88 |
| $\overline{\mathbf{3}}$ | Germany | 3,79 |
| $\overline{4}$ | UK | 3,60 |
| $\overline{5}$ | Denmark | 3,58 |
| $6\phantom{a}$ | Norway | 3,48 |
| $\overline{7}$ | Sweden | 3,38 |
| $\overline{\mathbf{8}}$ | Poland | 3,15 |
| $\overline{9}$ | Finland | 3,12 |
| Switzerland | 2,99 |
SME
Fact: 1/2 of competitors Target UK: 1/3 of competitors
People and culture
Fact: # 1 in Scandinavia Target UK: Far ahead of # 2
People and culture
Fact: Need to believe before entering UK: Many niche-segment
opportunities
People and culture
Source illustration: Fondsfinans Research
Already large database, best quality of all markets
| Property | Casualty | Fleet | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market | Sums Insured |
Claim years |
# Claims £ losses |
Exposure | Claim years |
# Claims £ losses |
Exposure | Claim years |
# Claims £ losses |
| UK | £100bn | 10 | • 25k claims • £180m losses |
• £13bn wages • 2m empl. |
10 | • 350k claims • £950m losses* |
260k vehicle years |
6 | • 70k claims • £90m losses |
| Norway | £50bn | 8 | • 5.5k claims • £170m losses |
• £23bn turnover • 2.,6m empl. |
7.5 | • 2,7k claims • £26m losses |
186k vehicle years |
7 | • 22k claims • £44m losses |
| Sweden | £90bn | 6.5 | • 7.5k claims • £260m losses |
• £11bn turnover |
8 | • 5,6k claims • £21m losses |
250k vehicle years |
4 | • 40k claims • £30m losses |
| Denmark | £65bn | 5.5 | • 45k claims • £290m losses |
• £6bn wages |
5 | • 6k claims • £11m losses |
100k Vehicle years |
4.5 | • 2,3k claims • £3,5m losses |
*Ground up basis
Risk evaluation based on Public Sector methodology – adjusted for key factors
100 risk factors systemized and benchmarked
| ousing Associ Countri Sums Insured Hevenue Hate 2010 Average 1004293.573 4.38%F $-27B$ 222,450,000 SETXP 6.30% 1835 3.38% 652,772,494 5.32% 266 574 543 4.76% 4.56% 4.35% 223,893,700 3.445 207, 70, 200 3.22% |
Costs Rate TrendEl 2010 Aver 3.245 2.03% STERE BATK 3.04%F 2,60mg A 60% 3.81% $4.22\times T$ 3.74% 2.75 0 2.47% |
Profit Rate Trenda 20102 Aves 1,98% 0.920 130% 1,00% 0.79% 0.76 2 0.7351 1:02% 0.20% 0.84% 0.89% 0.78to |
Maintenance Hate 2011 Avec 13 Trend a Trend 0.92% 0.93% 0.9276 0.75% 0.75% 0.66% támi Li2s 107% 0.88% 0.99% 0.93% |
Total M-14- -- - - White $^{62}$ 117 20 Vide Vide 92 79 54.76 Uhita 39.4 34 Vellow 47.5 70 Vellow |
1gh EducatioEIderler oung/Vulnerabilis-convic- Yes No Yes Yes No No No No. No Yes No Yes: Yes No No No Yes: Yes No No Yes Yes: |
Total Live Via CarriSuppo Stallin danagem Gould NAAR: NBA. Utida NAN. USDA NAW: NAVA NAN. Vikine RAVA NAW. Velicia White NAA. White NAM, |
Total Assesse Comment Live Vhite Cirer Assas for improvement, significal MA. Consistently well reviewed Green- Green Consistently good performing (2) Green Green NWA Ulkins Staff not assesed but good in 201 Green Consistently good Uhite Green Utilità Increased Care Inspectorate repd Green |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Client Information Sum Insured P Exces P Claim Y Pegior 1,000 400 1,000 195 5.00 250 425 102 500 4.25 441 250 256 221 5.000 4.25 4.59 1000 3,208 8.83 3,007 5,000 10,000 684 6.73 524 1,000 4.00 3.775 10,000 4.58 500 3.91 33 1871 5.000/200 5.68 |
Volume Per Year All D Capp 1 4.75 Wales 130,097 15,348 2.820 2.020 29,268 29,268 4.25 London 38 179.262 78.541 78.541 49,989 5,648 Wales $\overline{\phantom{a}}$ 4.477 4.477 171.198 7.544 TK 482 15.482 |
Rate LURE All Cappel LLF Frequence Average 114,750 0.67 0.59 0.08 0.03 0.03 $\sim$ t de 0.07 0.07 $\sim$ a. × 179,224 0.81 0.00 0.81 0.02 0.02 CHE 1 $\sim$ 0.00 44,341 0.02 0.01 $\sim$ $\sim$ College 0.01 0.01 $\sim$ $\sim$ 163.654 0.05 0.04 0.00 16 |
Ground Up Volume Per Year AIL FIC and 1 127,476 2223 411.09 32.327 585 585 455.71 5,992 26,978 2233 266.65 24.878 179.262 38 213.14 380 931 71.052 67.97 36.020 2223 49.929 5.648 18.82 63.082 2.477 2.477 95.44 8.954 23.12 175,562 8.635 196,165 15,482 2222 12,562 65.86 |
Above Deductible Rate LLF 21 Apple Lis Frequence Average 0.07 113,950 1111 308.31 三 0.01 453.71 0.06 33 106.66 0.001 179,224 0.81 0.83 213.14 902 ## 47.58 22 0.00 44.341 0.01 18.82 $\sim$ 100 117 95.44 \$6,927 3.00 ## 23.12 EE 65.96 n m |
Willis AAL . 37.918 0.09 Green 22.893 0.10 212,453 0.00 477 1242 Green 57,328 0.02 10,840 White 0.07 12,483 Yellow 36.542 0.17 380.931 Yellow 61039 0.02 46,550 White 0.02 49.477 88.314 Green 0.01 4,650 Green 2.729 0.01 White 4.954 201165 0.01 16,893 Whitle 1379 0.01 Green 12,562 White |
Rate Claims Hs T Location Topport Goode reserve Defents Total To Com Yellow Yellow Green lNo c Tellow Yellow Yellow Yellow Cellons A ve Green White I White Yellow Green A go White Yellow Yellow Yellow Vellone Clair White Green Green Green White Yellow Yellow Yellow Yellow Yellow White Good Yellow White Green White Yellow White White White A go Green White White Green Clar White White White Iz-due White Vallon White White Green rellow White INok White fellow White White Green First White White ellow White Green With |
|
| El Renewald Month lierd ORLAZO 08042057 37012018 190703017 606/2017 08040917 3006/2017 30/182017 3006/2017 01042017 300702017 300702017 2904/2017 0704/2017 08070997 607010 1007205 maxxi Windows |
Excess B Rented D [Million] 5.000 1500 2500 5.000 1,000 1000 500 5.000 1,000 2.500 250 500 2.500 2500 1000 10,000 250 250 dillo: |
Sum insured - Clain TAIL 3,007 10314 7.42 8.75 914.5 7.95 7.42 7.95 1514.1 5.00 5.82 548.6 5.92 4.00 5.92 652.8 13.10 442 505.1 8.92 19.97 246.6 5.16 34.95 33.81 223.9 500 11.62 207.7 975 71.36 10.06 116.9 4.90 10.48 10.48 106.4 13.61 71.67 4.93 63.7 12.82 3.68 12.92 2,293.0 9.58 20.84 20.57 400.1 5% 4.75. 16.73 6845 6.73 5.43 284.5 283 M.89 3,208.1 4.59 3.99 9.86 100.00 $-0.551$ SALIDAY 100.00 - |
Frequency per GBP Billion - adj. Deductible 0.22 111 2.99 0.66 4.14 185 126 145 0.91 182 2.28 173 0.35 7.63 0.22 0.67 10.89 3.11 157 0.79 15.22 共向 3.58 179 5.36 0.89 0.49 699 4.94 148 5.24 175 Ŀġ 5.83 4.27 4.32 0.53 474 4.21 0.43 3.47 3.72 4.96 150 5.78 0.18 0.48 - Mit diefer en can- |
Share of claims by claim type (volume) Fire & Fire & Floods Excel Storm Gthew Impa 780 85% arte. 7874 œ 37%) щE ZН 8% ane 700 93% 95% 57% ER. 430 . |
Wans Tong 350 Sarger DELMARIN Deal Mudoo Build boat. Deal Sevill Bandi Invit Wed Ware forget Module Marine 759 Seat 0% Wans Renge |
Assessmerit Their Subs Size Claim Prope Rese DonAs PubS Flood Tota white: allow White While White White Winde White white. white. Cellican White. afcfa winiw 'allow White: White White which White Whate whate. White: Allicane white ellosa Vellow l'Yellow Will front Whate White White Collins White White Pate Wington elicas Wilde White White white Wirls Winster White white Winite white White White. White et1mu Winite JNA Wilcom ellow. White White White WELCOM - White Cellow all not WEIGHT white. White ellow Yellow White |
White White White White White William White fello White White Uwhats |
Cost advantage is key, avoid the wrong (red) risks
| Frequenc | Claims | Frequency | Claims | Frequency | Avg. Claim Capped | Claims | Frequency | Avg. Claim Cap | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prg next period | heiright from | next period | next period | boitag fxant | hext period | next period | hoine tree | Frg next period | ||
| 17.5% | 1,676 | 144 | 1,332 | 116 | 14.1% | 1,662 | 66 | 8.0% | 3,379 | |
| 41.4% | 933 | 445 | 16 | 7.5% | 2,603 | 4.5% | 4,077 | |||
| 15.9% | 1,500 | 15.9% | 1,305 | 46 | 15.2% | 1,366 | 9.2% | 2,242 | ||
| 42.1% | 1,414 | 20 | 42.1% | 630 | 10.4% | 2,365 | 6.5% | 3,418 | ||
| 24.4% | 1,096 | 24.4% | 487 | 8.8 | 1,360 | 4.5 | 2,667 | |||
| Pr | Avg. Claim Capped | Avg. Claim Capped Prg next period 17.5% 41.4% |
Prg next period |
Estimated figures per Q2 2017
Controlled growth in a market with many opportunities
20 people on board
Volume full year 2016 Estimate 2017 Preliminary estimate 2018
Volume 25 MNOK 150 - 200 MNOK 400 – 500 MNOK Ahead of schedule
Vision The Challenger
Business Idea This will happen through unique relationships. best in class decision-making and cost effective solutions
Main targets Cost and quality leadership Profitable growth Top 3
Values Credible Open Bold Committed
100
Strategy 2020 and top 8
Claims handling is number 1 Falcon
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