Earnings Release • Jan 17, 2019
Earnings Release
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Aker BP ASA
17 January 2019
This Document includes and is based, inter alia, on forward-looking information and statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ. These statements and this Document are based on current expectations, estimates and projections about global economic conditions, the economic conditions of the regions and industries that are major markets for Aker BP ASA's lines of business. These expectations, estimates and projections are generally identifiable by statements containing words such as "expects", "believes", "estimates" or similar expressions. Important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expectations include, among others, economic and market conditions in the geographic areas and industries that are or will be major markets for Aker BP ASA's businesses, oil prices, market acceptance of new products and services, changes in governmental regulations, interest rates, fluctuations in currency exchange rates and such other factors as may be discussed from time to time in the Document. Although Aker BP ASA believes that its expectations and the Document are based upon reasonable assumptions, it can give no assurance that those expectations will be achieved or that the actual results will be as set out in the Document. Aker BP ASA is making no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of the Document, and neither Aker BP ASA nor any of its directors, officers or employees will have any liability to you or any other persons resulting from your use.
This Document includes financial information relating to the year 2018. The financial statements for 2018 have not been completed at the time of this report, and all such information should therefore be considered as forward-looking statements.
| Time | Speaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 09:00 | Welcome | |
| High growth, low cost and improved efficiency | Karl Johnny Hersvik, CEO | |
| Maximizing value of our producing assets | Svein J. Liknes, SVP Operations & Asset Development | |
| Our main growth projects | Karl Johnny Hersvik, CEO | |
| Break | ||
| 11:00 | Creating value through exploration | Evy Glørstad-Clark, SVP Exploration |
| Returning value creation to shareholders | Alexander Krane, CFO | |
| Concluding remarks | Karl Johnny Hersvik, CEO | |
| 12:00 | Q&A session | |
| 12:30 | End |
Capital Markets Day 2019
Karl Johnny Hersvik Chief Executive Officer
Strong operational performance
Increased reserves and resources
Capital discipline
Strengthen position in core areas
Deliver on the dividend ambition
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Strong operational performance
Increased reserves and resources
Capital discipline
Strengthen position in core areas
Deliver on the dividend ambition
155 700 boed produced
>80% oil and liquids
USD 12 per boe production cost
Strong operational performance
Increased reserves and resources
Capital discipline
Strengthen position in core areas
Deliver on the dividend ambition
>100% organic Reserve Replacement Ratio
+18%
in contingent resources
~55 mmboe
net volumes in Frosk and Gekko
Strong operational performance
Increased reserves and resources
Capital discipline
Strengthen position in core areas
Deliver on the dividend ambition
USD 1.20 bn
2018 capital spending below plan
-30%
lower abandonment expenditures than planned
On track current field developments
Strong operational performance
Increased reserves and resources
Capital discipline
Strengthen position in core areas
Deliver on the dividend ambition
11 licences
acquisition of portfolio from Total
King Lear acquisition of gas/cond. discovery from Equinor
~170 mmboe
net recoverable resources acquired
Production cost per barrel
Full cycle project break-even below
Production ambition (mboepd)
Production cost (USD/boe)
kg CO2 per boe (2017)
Serious Incident Frequency (SIF)
Per million exposure hours
Number of licences on the NCS per company
A cornerstone of Aker BP's growth agenda
Returning the value creation to shareholders (USD million)
Profitable growth from excellent project pipeline
Capital Markets Day 2019
Svein J. Liknes SVP Operations & Asset Development
Alvheim area (operator) High production efficiency and continued resource growth
Valhall/Hod (operator) Billion barrels produced, ambition to produce another billion
Ivar Aasen (operator) Pioneering digital operations model
Skarv / Ærfugl (operator) Strong base performance and area upside potential
Ula/Tambar (operator) Late life production with significant upside potential
Johan Sverdrup (partner) World class development with superior economics
NOAKA (operator) Targeting an area development
Development in 2P reserves (mmboe)
Development in 2C contingent resources (mmboe)
| Field | Licence | Aker BP interest |
Partners | 2P reserves mmboe net |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvheim | 203 | 65% | ConocoPhillips, Lundin | 66 |
| Volund | 150 | 65% | Lundin | 13 |
| Vilje | 036 D | 46.9% | Equinor, PGNiG | 7 |
| Bøyla /Frosk |
340 | 65% | Vår, Lundin | 7 |
| Skogul | 460 | 65% | PGNiG | 6 |
| Net 2P reserves | 99 |
Alvheim area production (mboepd net)
Alvheim area production efficiency
Subsea Alliance – the first of its kind
Delivering significant cost improvements1)
| Field | Licence | Aker BP interest |
Partners | 2P reserves mmboe net |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valhall | Valhall Unit | 90% | Pandion | 262 |
| Hod | 033 | 90% | Pandion | 4 |
| Net 2P reserves | 265 |
Production efficiency gradually improving
Production efficiency data from 2015-2016 based on McKinsey benchmark survey. From Q1-17 based on company data. 40
Jul 17 Dec 17 Jul 18 Dec 18 Jul 19 Dec 19 Jul 20
Faster, cheaper and with minimal CO2 and NOx emissions
Fishbones – a promising stimulation technology currently being tested at Valhall
"Oil and gas in tight reservoirs represent huge opportunities for value creation on the NCS. However, profitable recovery requires willingness from operators and licensees to test and implement new technologies, such as the Fishbones stimulation."
Ingrid Sølvberg Director Development and operations
Valhall area production outlook (net mboepd)
Ambition to produce another billion barrels from the Valhall area1)
Onshoring the Ivar Aasen control room
The offshore control room moved onshore as the first in Norway
| Field | Licence | Aker BP interest |
Partners | 2P reserves mmboe net |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ivar Aasen | Ivar Aasen Unit |
34.8% | Equinor, Spirit, Wintershall, Neptune, Lundin, OKEA |
49 |
| Hanz | 028 B | 35.0% | Equinor, Spirit | 6 |
| Net 2P reserves | 55 |
Ivar Aasen production outlook (mboepd net)
| Field | Licence | Aker BP interest |
Partners | 2P reserves mmboe net |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skarv & Ærfugl |
Skarv Unit | 23.835% | Equinor, DEA, PGNiG | 90 |
| Snadd Outer | 212 E | 30% Equinor, DEA, PGNiG |
||
| Net 2P reserves | 106 |
Production efficiency
Production efficiency data from 2015-2016 based on McKinsey benchmark survey. From Q1-17 based on company data. 53
Tie-back to Skarv
Jul 17 Dec 17 Jul 18 Dec 18 Jul 19 Dec 19 Jul 20 Dec 20
Skarv area production outlook (mboepd net)
| Field | Licence | Aker BP interest |
Partners | 2P reserves mmboe net |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ula | 019 | 80% | Faroe | 39 |
| Tambar | 065 | 55% | Faroe | 8 |
| Oda | 405 | 15% | Spirit (operator), Suncor, Faroe | 7 |
| Net 2P reserves | 54 |
Current priorities for the Ula area
Ula area production outlook (mboepd net)
Capital Markets Day 2019
Karl Johnny Hersvik Chief Executive Officer
Illustration: TRY/Equinor, Johan Sverdrup Field Centre incl. Phase 2 63
• Operated by Equinor
• First oil plan November 2019 • Processing capacity 440 mboepd
• Production from Q4 2022 • Processing capacity 660 mboepd
Break even oil price below USD 20 per boe
Illustration: Equinor 64
Production and capex outlook
NOAKA: North Of Alvheim Krafla Askja 66
| Discovery | Licence | mmboe gross1) |
Aker BP share |
mmboe net1) |
Operator |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Askja/Krafla | 035/072 | 236 | 50% | 118 | Equinor |
| Frigg | 903 76 |
- | - | Equinor | |
| Frigg Gamma/Delta | 442 | 84 | 90% | 75 | Aker BP |
| Frøy | 364 | 41 | 90% | 37 | Aker BP |
| Fulla | 873 | 66 | 40% | 26 | Aker BP |
| Langfjellet | 442 | 33 | 90% | 30 | Aker BP |
| Rind | 026 | 33 | 92% | 30 | Aker BP |
| TOTAL | 568 | 56% | 317 |
• Total of ~550 mmboe
Concept selection delayed
PQ UPP
All numbers based on Aker BP estimates as per January 2019 Break-even defined as the oil price necessary to achieve positive NPV using 10% discount rate
Capital Markets Day 2019
Evy Glørstad-Clark SVP Exploration
60 %
Explore for new hub potential 40 %
Smart integration of data and technology
New discovery and positive appraisal
Estimated value of 2018 exploration program
| License | Prospect | Operator | Aker BP share |
Pre-drill mmboe | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PL869 | Froskelår Main |
Aker BP | 60 % | 45 | - | 153 |
| PL869 | Froskelår NE | Aker BP | 60 % | 7 | - | 23 |
| PL869 | Rumpetroll | Aker BP | 60 % | 45 | - | 148 |
| PL033 | Hod Deep West | Aker BP | 90 % | 2 | - | 22 |
| PL916 | JK | Aker BP | 40 % | 100 | - | 420 |
| PL857 | Gjøkåsen | Equinor | 20 % | 26 | - | 1 427 |
| PL782S | Busta | ConocoPhillips | 20 % | 54 | - | 199 |
| PL942 | Ørn | Equinor | 30 % | 8 | - | 40 |
| PL777 | Hornet | Aker BP | 40 % | 14 | - | 137 |
| PL814 | Freke-Garm | Aker BP | 40 % | 16 | - | 81 |
| PL502 | Klaff | Equinor | 22 % | 50 | - | 372 |
| PL762 | Vågar | Aker BP | 20 % | 62 | - | 128 |
| PL019C | Kark | Aker BP | 60 % | 15 | - | 48 |
| PL838 | Shrek | PGNIG | 30 % | 10 | - | 22 |
| TBD | NOAKA area | Aker BP |
Interpreted as the same injectite complex as the Frosk discovery
Sand injectite complex near Frosk discovery1)
Play test in Valhall area1)
Large upside potential
Production well extension to test new, deeper play
Low relief structure close to Johan Sverdrup
Cluster development potential in known play type
Permian carbonate play in the Norwegian Sea
Estimated risked value of 2019 exploration program
Defining and exploring in new potential core areas through APA
Increasing footprint in producing hub areas in available APA acreage
APA activity aims to strengthen existing portfolio in prioritized area
High-potential 2019 exploration program with 15 prospects to be drilled
Digitalize to improve decisions and value creation
Large and growing license portfolio with significant opportunity set
Capital Markets Day 2019
Alexander Krane Chief Financial Officer
Key financial priorities
Current producing fields and sanctioned projects only
1) Assuming USDNOK of 8.5 for 2019, and 8.0 thereafter
2) Free cash flow: Net cash flow from operating activities minus Net cash flow used in investment activities
2P reserves
2C contingent resources
Capitalized interest is excluded. USDNOK assumptions: 8.5 in 2019, 8.0 thereafter. 91
Production cost (USD/boe)
Exploration spend (USD million)
Abandonment spend (USD million)
P&A: Plug & Abandonment 94
• Fully deductible same year as incurred at 78% tax rate
Current producing fields and sanctioned and non-sanctioned projects
Leverage ratio
High debt capacity – low utilization
| Oil price hedging | Insurance | Interest rates |
|---|---|---|
| Buying put options to secure up to 100 percent of after-tax production value next 12-18 months |
All assets insured in the commercial market with S&P rating of minimum A- |
Policy: Up to 60% of gross debt at fixed interest rate |
| Currently covered for H1-2019: • 23% of expected oil volume • 83% of net value after tax • Strike USD ~55 per barrel |
Loss of production covered after 45 days at net USD 50 per barrel |
Per end 2018, 62% of gross debt is at fixed rate Actively using swaps to manage exposure |
P&L effect of revaluation of tax balances 1Q16-3Q181)
An approximation
Dividend policy
Dividends (USD million)
| 2018 guidance | 2018 preliminary1) | 2019 guidance2) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Production | 155-160 mboepd (lower half) |
155.7 mboepd 155-160 mboepd |
|
| Capex | USD 1.25 billion | USD 1.20 billion | USD 1.6 billion |
| Exploration spend | USD 400 million | USD 359 million | USD 500 million |
| Abandonment spend | USD 250 million | USD 243 million | USD 150 million |
| Production cost per boe | USD ~12 | USD ~12 | USD ~12.5 |
| Dividends | USD 450 million | USD 450 million | USD 750 million |
Key financial priorities
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